Fantasy Football 2015: Buying or Selling NFL OTA Buzz

It's the most wonderful time of the year.

No, not Christmas. Dude, it's June. C'mon.

It's fantasy draft season.

Not only are fantasy football leagues far and wide about to conduct the drafts that will determine each team's makeup for the upcoming campaign, but every team has a clean slate.

It's 0-0 all around.

Of course, in order to avoid the sort of draft-day gaffes that could torpedo a season before it starts, it's vital to keep apprised of both the latest news around the NFL and its impact on the fantasy value of the players involved.

With that in mind, here's the latest scoop from OTAs and whether that news is hot stuff or hot air in fantasy circles.

Eli Manning Shining in OTAs

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It happened without much fanfare, but in 2014, Eli Manning of the New York Giants quietly had one of the best statistical seasons of his 11-year NFL career.

Part of that success was due to him cutting his interceptions nearly in half, from 27 in 2013 to only 14 a season ago.

And according to Jordan Ranaan of NJ.com, Manning has carried that over into Year 2 of coordinator Ben McAdoo's offense:

"

This spring, in the second year in coordinator Ben McAdoo's offense, the interceptions have almost completely disappeared. Manning didn't throw an interception in the three OTA practices open to the media.

It's only June and everything needs to be put in perspective. Manning isn't facing real pressure. The Giants are practicing in shorts.

Still, for a quarterback throwing to a group missing some of his top receivers, Manning has looked sharp. His familiarity with the offense appears to have made a significant difference.

"

Just in case you were wondering, Manning, who finished 2014 as the 11th-ranked fantasy quarterback in NFL.com default scoring, presently has an average draft position of QB12 at Fantasy Pros.

Verdict: Buy

Manning didn't mince words when speaking with Steve Serby of the New York Post. He said he expects to have the best year of his career.

"I like the guys we have in the locker room, I like our talent, I like how everybody’s approaching this season, I’m looking forward to it," the quarterback said. "I feel healthy, I feel good, feel confident in the offense, so I’m excited."

Fantasy owners should be excited too, especially those who like to wait to draft a starter under center.

The table is set. McAdoo's fantasy-friendly no-huddle-heavy scheme. One of the NFL's best wide receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. A sneaky-good pass-catching tailback in Shane Vereen.

Winning in fantasy football is all about value. And at the quarterback position, there aren't many better early values this year than Manning.

The More Things Change...

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Stop me if you've heard this one before.

Darren McFadden is hurt.

The perpetually injured running back, who joined the Dallas Cowboys in free agency this spring, is already nursing a sore hamstring with his new team. McFadden conceded to Todd Archer of ESPN.com that it's frustrating to sit out OTAs, but it's more precautionary than anything.

"It's definitely frustrating, man," he said. "You always want to be out there taking plays and getting reps, but it's one of those things I'd rather sit out now instead of push it and have something linger on me.

For the first time in his seven-year NFL career, McFadden played in all 16 games in 2014, gaining 534 yards and scoring two touchdowns for the Oakland Raiders.

Verdict: Sell

With McFadden set to carry the ball behind one of the best offensive lines in football, more than one fantasy expert has touted the 27-year-old as a potential breakout candidate in 2015.

In fact, Isaac Leicht of Fantasy Pros recently went so far as to say McFadden has RB1 fantasy upside this year:

"

Quote me later: if Darren McFadden begins 2015 atop the Cowboys depth chart, despite his name being mud from years of disappointment, I love McFadden as a sneaky RB1. Anyone carrying the ball behind the Cowboys O-line is a Top 5 RB in fantasy. I know how it sounds, but I believe it.

"

I know how it sounds too—kooky.

Let's see. There's the extensive injury history. There's the fact that McFadden hasn't averaged even 3.5 yards per carry since 2011. There's fact that with him injured, Joseph Randle is getting his chance to stake a claim as Dallas' top ball-carrier this year.

Other than that though, McFadden just oozes fantasy upside.

Cody Latimer Headed for a Breakout?

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Heading into the 2014 season, there was more than a little buzz surrounding rookie wide receiver Cody Latimer of the Denver Broncos.

His considerable physical gifts, combined with a Denver offense coming off a record-breaking season, led several fantasy pundits to predict that Latimer could make a big impact in his first NFL season.

I'll confess to buying a seat on that bandwagon.

However, things didn't go as planned. Latimer wound up playing in only eight games and making all of two catches for 23 yards. And according to Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports, that paltry production was directly related to a lack of preparation on Latimer's part:

"

The Broncos basically got an unmotivated second-rounder, who knew he didn't have the pressure of having to produce on Sundays. Latimer didn't help his situation last season by taking a laid back approach to pretty much everything that comes along with NFL preparation. He checked out mentally rather than latching on to Peyton Manning and learning all he could. And that ended up stunting his growth in 2014.

"

Yikes.

Verdict: Buy

Early indications are that Latimer's attitude is different this year. The youngster attended Peyton Manning's annual passing camp at Duke, and as he told Troy Renck of the Denver Post, he is hopeful that extra work will show up on the playing field.

"I got a lot of repetitions because there weren't many guys there," Latimer said. "And it kind of gave us a little head start on routes and different play calls in the new offense. I am faster than I was, shiftier."

Head coach Gary Kubiak told Renck he's seen improvement as well:

"

He showed a lot of flashes from me watching (film of) him in practice. A lot of times being a rookie can be overwhelming. I think it's time for him to make a big jump, not just a little jump. Obviously his playing time is fixing to pick up, and it needs to pick up. We need him.

"

Of course, given the time of year, it's unlikely Kubiak would say any different, whether Latimer really has improved or not. OTAs are all about the glass being half-full, at least publicly.

With Wes Welker gone, the only thing standing between Latimer and the No. 3 receiver role (and significant fantasy upside) in Denver is Andre Caldwell.

And with a paltry asking price of the 16th round in 12-team fantasy drafts, per the ADP information at Fantasy Pros, Latimer is looking more and more like a great late-draft "lottery ticket."

Sam Bradford Rounding into Shape

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No team was more aggressive in free agency than the Philadelphia Eagles. Among the myriad moves Chip Kelly made was the acquisition of quarterback Sam Bradford, who missed all of the 2014 season with an ACL tear, from the St. Louis Rams.

Bradford has slowly been rounding back into form, and as Eliott Shorr-Parks of NJ.com reported, while Bradford's workload in practice is slowly increasing, there's still more than a little rust to shake off:

"

Bradford wasn't particularly sharp on Tuesday during the team drills. During one rep, his throw over the middle was too low and into the ground. On another, he checked it down to a running back. After shining on Monday, there wasn't much to take away from Bradford on Tuesday.

"

Rust or no, Kelly told Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he's confident Bradford will be ready to rock by September.

"I'm very optimistic with Sam in terms of his progress," Kelly said. "As I said, he's gotten better every day."

Verdict: Sell

Of course, Mark Sanchez, who started eight games for the Eagles last year, isn't ready to just hand the starting job to Bradford. And Sanchez told Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports that he thinks his familiarity with Kelly's offense could give him an edge in the battle to start under center:

"

It helps a lot I think in any of those last second, quick decisions. Not being worried about the protection calls, not being worried about anything that might have caught me by surprise last year. You just get that experience and you feel like you can control the situation and you feel like you're in the driver's seat and everything is really starting to slow down.

"

With due respect to "The Sanchize," he's kidding himself. Kelly hand-picked Bradford, dealing Nick Foles and a second-round draft selection to acquire the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft.

If Bradford's healthy, he'll start.

The problem is, fantasy owners might allow themselves to become so enamored with the idea of Bradford at the helm of Kelly's offense that they overlook his lengthy injury history. They are kidding themselves as well.

In five NFL seasons, Bradford has missed 31 games. He hasn't seen the field since midway through the 2013 season. And he's now scrambling around on a twice-torn ACL.

It's more a matter of when than if Bradford is going down.

The Return of Megatron

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By his own lofty standards, 2014 was a disappointing season for Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

Yes, he topped 1,000 receiving yards for a fifth consecutive season. But his 71 catches for 1,077 yards were Johnson's lowest totals since 2009. He also battled lower-leg injuries for the second straight season, missing three games.

With Johnson nearing the big 30, some have theorized that the ninth-year veteran's best football could be behind him. However, he told Tim Twentyman of the team's website that he isn't ready to be put out to pasture just yet.

"Turning 30 can be a boundary, it can be a hindrance, if you let it be, if you let age beat you," Megatron said. "I just keep working and keep the same mindset that I’ve kept my whole career. It’s grown and gotten better and I just keep on trying to advance."

Johnson then swore that 2015 would finally be the year he has his vengeance against Optimus Prime and the rest of the Autobots.

Verdict: Buy

It wasn't that long ago that there was zero doubt who the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy drafts was. It was Johnson's world. We were just living in it.

However, after he fell all the way to 16th in fantasy points among wide receivers in points-per-reception formats a year ago, his fantasy stock has dropped. In fact, Johnson is tied for fifth at his position this year, according to the average draft position data at Fantasy Pros.

Yes, his days of racking up nearly 2,000 receiving yards or 15 touchdowns may be gone, as much because of changes to the Detroit offense (both schematically and personnel-wise) as any drop-off in Johnson's talent.

But still, this is Johnson we're talking about. In a recent industry draft I participated in, he lasted well into the second round of a PPR draft.

And at that point, he's a solid value all day, every day.

Joique Bell Still on the Mend

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Calvin Johnson isn't the only Lions player making news this week.

However, in the case of running back Joique Bell, the news isn't nearly as positive.

Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi indicated some concern that Bell's recovery from surgeries on his knee and Achilles could affect his conditioning well into training camp, per Twentyman.

"Really, I think your biggest concern is just, is he going to be able to get in the shape that you wanted to at the beginning of camp," Lombardi said. "But we’ll be careful with him and smart and ramp him up as we go."

Bell, who turns 29 in August, paced the Lions with 860 yards on the ground in 2014.

Verdict: Sell

As Jonathan Ebanks of Fantasy Pros pointed out, this report is only the latest thing that's knocked much of the 2014 shine off the sixth-year veteran:

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Bell was Detroit's best back last year, amassing a career-high 860 rushing yards on 223 totes and averaging 4.4 yards per carry in the second half. His absence has given Ameer Abdullah the chance to show the coaching staff and the starting unit what he's got. Bell is too much of a risk to draft in the early-to-mid rounds.

"

The injuries. Abdullah's arrival in Motown. The fact that Bell has averaged less than four yards per carry in each of the past two seasons. A fifth-round average draft position at Fantasy Pros.

Add it all together, and Ball is shaping up to be quite the cautionary tale about the dangers of paying for last year's production instead of this season's potential.

Allen Robinson's Recovery

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The Jacksonville Jaguars have some kind of luck. Already this year, No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler suffered an ACL injury that will sideline the former Florida defensive end for his entire rookie season.

A similar fate befell wide receiver Allen Robinson during his rookie season in 2014. After a relatively promising first half of the year in which he appeared to develop a rapport with fellow rookie Blake Bortles, Robinson suffered a season-ending stress fracture in his foot.

He still isn't 100 percent recovered from the injury, but he told ESPN.com's Michael DiRocco that getting onto the practice field for OTAs was a major step in the right direction.

"It felt good to be back," he said. "Something that I worked for throughout the offseason was to get back to this point and get back out there with my team."

Robinson hauled in 48 passes for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2014.

Verdict: Buy

Robinson also told DiRocco he plans to build on the success he enjoyed over the first half of his rookie season:

"

I think the biggest thing is just really challenging myself to be the player I know I can be. All the details and stuff like that, I find that’s the only way for me to take my game to another level, and that’s what I’m trying to do. At the end of the day, even though that’s the case -- just getting back and stuff like that -- I’ve still got to continue to challenge myself as if I was 100 percent the whole time because I want to get to that level that I want to play at.

"

From Week 2 to Week 10 last year, Robinson was a top-20 fantasy receiver in fantasy leagues that award a point for catches. He was also easily Bortles' favorite target.

If reports from OTAs continue to be positive regarding his recovery but he continues to be overlooked by fantasy owners who are skittish about his foot and/or the Jaguars, then Robinson could prove to be quite the steal in PPR drafts this summer.

Breaking Down the Arizona Backfield

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A number of NFL teams added complementary running backs in the 2015 NFL draft. The Lions added Ameer Abdullah to pair with Joique Bell. The Dolphins added Jay Ajayi to pair with Lamar Miller.

However, as Darren Urban of the Cardinals website reported, the Redbirds essentially cloned third-year pro Andre Ellington with third-round pick David Johnson:

"

As the offseason goes on and people keep wondering what will be the role of rookie third-round running back David Johnson might be, it’s telling that Arians mentioned first the other day praise for Johnson as a receiver. The thought was that the Cards would take a big running back to pair with Ellington, but instead, it points more toward the ability for the Cardinals’ offensive gameplan to absorb an Ellington injury if necessary.

"

Ellington topped 1,000 total yards for the Cardinals in 2014, but after leading the NFL in yards per carry (5.5) two years ago, his per-touch average free-fell all the way to 3.3 yards in 2014.

Verdict: Sell

Frankly, even with the injuries and low yards-per-carry average a season ago, Ellington still managed an OK fantasy campaign, finishing just inside the top 20 running backs in PPR scoring systems.

It wasn't what fantasy owners were hoping for when they selected Ellington as a high-end RB2 last year (speaking from experience), but it wasn't a season-killing performance either.

Also, he has looked good in OTAs, according to Mike Jurecki of Fox Sports 910 in Phoenix.

So why am I Sellington? (See what I did there?)

Well, as things stand right now, his ADP at Fantasy Pros is RB19, the same as his PPR finish a season ago. And I just don't see Ellington finishing much higher than that.

Blame the risk of injury. Or Bruce Arians' pass-centric offense. Or the presence of Johnson, who has also drawn favorable reviews in OTAs.

Whatever the reason, the players you want to be targeting in fantasy drafts aren't the ones with sticker prices near their fantasy ceilings.

John Brown Set to Paint the Town Red?

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The Arizona Cardinals were one of the NFL's best teams last year before a litany of injuries laid waste to the quarterback position.

Well, Carson Palmer is back under center, and head coach Bruce Arians recently told Alex Flanagan of NFL Media that Palmer appears fully recovered from last year's ACL tear.

"The training wheels are off," Arians said. "He's ready to roll."

However, Palmer's recovery isn't the only thing making news in the desert. Second-year wideout John Brown is also making waves, according to Flanagan:

"

"I expect huge things from [Brown] this year. There is something different about him," Palmer told me after practice.

Word around the Cardinals building is that his Brown is stronger, in better shape and people are taking notice of his work ethic. (Wide receiver Michael Floyd sat out with a tweaked hamstring) Carson and Brown will continue working together after this week's minicamp ends. Brown will work out in San Diego with Palmer.

"

Brown hauled in 48 passes for 696 yards and five scores in 2014.

Verdict: Buy

This one is a close call. After all, Palmer wasn't shy about throwing the ball Brown's way a season ago, and as 4for4 Fantasy Football wrote, Brown saw enough action last year to at least qualify as solid fantasy depth:

"

Brown finished as the #49 WR in standard formats and #53 in PPR. He saw a hefty 103 targets as a rookie, and with Larry Fitzgerald back and Michael Floyd still in the mix, it's doubtful that Brown's usage will increase too much. If Carson Palmer is healthy, however, the whole passing offense could take a step forward, and that would push Brown into fantasy-starter territory.

"

What it really boils down to is this: If you think Palmer will stay healthy and that will equate to a bump in targets for Brown in Arians' vertical passing offense, then the youngster could be a nice value late in fantasy drafts this year.

However, if you expect Brown's production to stay relatively equal to last season's, then the value really isn't there, especially with hype growing around Brown by the day.

That hype will only serve to drive up his asking price on draft day.

Rebound Time for Pierre Garcon?

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In 2013, Washington Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon was the 11th-ranked fantasy receiver in leagues that award a point for catches. The 28-year-old caught over 110 passes and topped 1,300 yards.

Last year, those numbers were way down, and Garcon free-fell to 47th in fantasy points. That's close to the eighth-year veteran's current average draft position (WR44) at Fantasy Pros.

But there's been a bit of speculation lately indicating Garcon might be a better value than that draft projection. According to ESPN's Britt McHenry, the Redskins are "doing more to incorporate Pierre Garcon into offense this year."

He caught 68 passes for 752 yards and three touchdowns in 2014.

Verdict: Buy

Garcon told Stephen Czarda of the team's website that he expects to fare much better in 2015, his second season in Jay Gruden's offense:

"

It definitely helps us a lot, cause you’ve got to keep going over the basics. You can keep getting more in depth into stuff that we didn’t think about last year. We’re going to learn from last year and learn from footages and we can definitely keep growing instead of starting back at step one.

"

Now, before we get too carried away with the rebound lovefest, let's make one thing perfectly clear: In 2013, Garcon was the most-targeted wideout in the National Football League, at 184. That ain't happening again, folks—not with DeSean Jackson in town.

However, if the team really is serious about getting Garcon more involved in the offense, and if Washington can get improved play at quarterback from Robert Griffin III in 2015, then it's reasonable to think Garcon could flirt with WR3 production.

And even that modest bump would make him a value pick at his current 10th-round asking price.

Kendall Wright Feeling Wronged

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Generally, reports from OTAs are almost always positive. Such-and-such young player is exceeding expectations. So-and-so's rehab from injury is coming along nicely. So on and et cetera.

However, it's a different story for the Tennessee Titans, as arguably the team's most talented offensive player is grumbling about his role in the offense.

As John Glennon of the Tennessean reported, Kendall Wright wasn't exactly sunshine and puppies when asked about Ken Whisenhunt's scheme.

"I wouldn't say I was a freelancer, but I was more of a football player," Wright said. "I wasn't running (into coverage). That doesn't make much sense to me. When I saw an opening, I would stop. But now I'm doing it how the coach wants it, and how the quarterback thinks it should look."

Wright's coach was much more diplomatic: "(Wright)'s really a talented player that I'm excited to see grow."

After catching 94 passes for 1,079 yards and finishing as a top-20 fantasy receiver two years ago, Wright fell out of the top 40 in 2014.

Verdict: Buy

So, let's see if we have this straight. We have an unhappy player for one of the NFL's worst offenses. He will be catching passes from a rookie quarterback who played in a gimmick offense last year—and I'm buying.

Yep, that about covers it.

The reason? Everyone else is selling.

Wright's current average draft position at Fantasy Pros is presently at the end of the 11th round. The only team in the NFL you can get a No. 1 receiver from later in fantasy drafts is Cleveland.

And no one wants that.

Even if all Wright does is back up last year's "disappointing" campaign, he'll be a nice late-draft flier pick.

Any more than that, he'll be a steal.

So while Wright may not be doing much smiling in 2015, fantasy owners who get him on the cheap will be doing plenty.

Vernon Davis Looking Good

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In 2013, San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis reeled in 52 passes for 850 yards and an eye-popping 13 touchdowns. Only Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints tallied more fantasy points at the position in standard-scoring fantasy football leagues.

Last year, Davis fell completely off the map—and then some. His statistical production was a shell of that big season—26 catches, 245 yards, two scores and a fantasy finish outside the top 30 among tight ends.

However, with the 31-year-old heading into a contract year, new head coach Jim Tomsula told Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee that Davis has looked a lot more like the dominant player from 2013.

"Vernon is stretching the field. Vernon looks extremely fast," Tomsula said. "Catching the ball really well. Again, the next three days, I’d rather you watch it then me talk a lot about it because you’ll have the opportunity to see it."

According to average draft position data at Fantasy Pros, Davis is the 18th tight end off draft boards this year.

Verdict: Buy

With an asking price in the 19th round of 12-team fantasy drafts, this is music to the ears of fantasy drafters.

And the reason has very little to do with Davis.

Simply put, the talent pool at tight end this year is no bueno. There are maybe half a dozen dependable weekly starters to be had, followed by a large tier of players with as many question marks as answers.

Many fantasy squads are going to have to be speculative at the position out of necessity.

There's minimal risk involved right now in taking a flier on Davis late. And even if his bounce-back campaign only gets him into the back end of the top 10, the 10th-year veteran could be one of the biggest steals of 2015 at a position where a steal would most certainly come in handy.

New Role for Vincent Jackson?

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Wide receiver Vincent Jackson of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has long been a consistent producer, both in NFL and fantasy terms.

2014 was no exception, but even though Jackson caught 70 passes for the third straight season and topped 1,000 receiving yards for the sixth time in seven years, rookie Mike Evans outshined the 32-year-old in Tampa.

However, under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, the Buccaneers apparently have plans for Jackson in 2015, and he told Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune he's embracing his new role:

"

Dirk is having some fun moving me around and playing me in multiple places, and it’s been fun for me, too. It’s fun to play inside (in the slot) and outside, to be able stretch the field and cross the field. That’s what’s good about this system. We’re going to put the ball all over the place. The (running) backs, the tight ends, everybody’s going to be involved and that should make it fun for all of us.

"

Jackson finished the 2014 season 33rd in fantasy points among wide receivers in leagues that award a point for receptions.

Verdict: Buy

That 2014 finish isn't far off from Jackson's early ADP at Fantasy Pros, where he's coming off draft boards as a mid-range WR3 in the sixth round of 12-team drafts.

Yes, Jackson will be catching passes from a rookie quarterback this year, but let's be honest—compared to the dumpster fire under center a year ago, Jameis Winston might actually be an upgrade from Day 1.

Add in that Evans' big rookie season will mean extra attention from opposing defenses and Koetter's plans to move Jackson around the formation, and it isn't hard to imagine Jackson landing in WR2 territory in 2015.

That wouldn't quite make the veteran a steal, but it could make him a nice little value.

Bulked-Up Martavis Bryant Turning Heads

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After averaging over 21 yards per reception as a rookie in 2014, Martavis Bryant had a plan in place to increase his role with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2015.

He added 10 pounds of muscle to his 6'4" frame in the offseason. As he told ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler, he has also been working on improving his mobility.

"Running routes in the sand," Bryant said. "The beach, the sand pit, wherever. …I used to not be that way. I used to be just big."

He caught only 26 passes for 549 yards in 2014, but eight of those grabs went for scores.

Verdict: Buy

Bryant's gaudy yards-per-catch and touchdown totals last year have more than a few fantasy pundits salivating over what he could do with added targets, including Adam Rank of NFL Media:

"

I like the potential Bryant has. He's got a nose for the end zone as many like to say. Even though his main touchdown production was mostly in the month of October (as previously noted), he played really well in the playoff game against the Ravens. And that to me is the key. The Steelers played the game without Le'Veon Bell. And, oh look, there's a chance the team will play the first two games of the season without Bell this year.

"

Bryant is coming off the board (on average) in the sixth round, just before Vincent Jackson. However, whereas Jackson will likely be fortunate to finish in the top 20, the sky is the limit where Bryant is concerned.

That is, provided he can distance himself from Markus Wheaton in the battle to start opposite Antonio Bryant.

If this report is any indication, Bryant appears set to do just that.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of NFL.com. Average draft position projections courtesy of FantasyPros.com. Fantasy point totals via Fantasy Football Today.