
2015 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1 Predictions
Just 24 hours remain until one of the more anticipated draft days in recent NFL history. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will likely select Jameis Winston with the first overall pick, but all the drama should start after that.
Will the Tennessee Titans take Marcus Mariota? Will they trade the pick? Will Philip Rivers be involved? Will Chip Kelly find a way to move up? Will Cleveland package its two first-rounders for Mariota?
In keeping with mock draft rules, there are no trades in here—except for one. The No. 2 pick seems too likely to be traded, so that’s the result in this mock.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Picking Winston seems to be the consensus on what the Buccaneers will and should do.
Winston has his off-the-field issues, but his talent as a passer is such that he warrants the top overall selection. Barring a blockbuster trade from another team, Winston will become the face of the Buccaneers franchise this week.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (via Trade): Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Rumors have swirled about Kelly's quest to get Mariota, as reported by CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson, and count me among the few who still believe the Philadelphia Eagles head coach will pull it off.
The asking price will understandably be steep, especially considering that Kelly's affinity for Mariota is well-known.
But Kelly has shown he's not afraid to be bold, and it's no coincidence he was given full control of all player personnel decisions in the offseason when his college quarterback was hitting the draft.
Getting Mariota will make the Eagles instant contenders in the NFC, despite the ransom of players and picks Kelly will ultimately have to surrender.
The Eagles will trade their 2015 first-rounder, 2016 first-rounder, 2015 fourth-rounder, quarterback Sam Bradford, linebacker Mychal Kendricks, and cornerback Brandon Boykin for Tennessee's No. 2 overall pick.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars surprised us all when they opted for quarterback Blake Bortles. Could they make a similar move this year and get polished wide receiver Amari Cooper?
Hopefully they don't, seeing as wide receiver is already a strength with Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns on board. Justin Blackmon also remains in the mix.
Taking Florida's Dante Fowler is the logical move, as he's a defensive coach's dream. Fowler has the size (6'3", 261 lbs) to play in a 4-3 or 3-4, and he will team with Sen'Derrick Marks and Ryan Davis to give the Jaguars a formidable line.
4. Oakland Raiders: Leonard Williams, DT/DE, USC
Last year, the much-maligned Oakland Raiders nailed it with their first two picks, acquiring pass-rusher Khalil Mack and quarterback Derek Carr.
They have several options in this scenario. They could add Kevin White or Cooper to give Carr a true No. 1 receiver, or they could listen to trade offers from teams—Atlanta?—wanting to move up.
In this case, though, getting Leonard Williams—arguably the best overall defensive player in this year's draft class—makes too much sense to ignore.
5. Washington Redskins: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
New Washington Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan stated to WTEM-FM's The Sports Fix (h/t NFL.com) the team won't give up on Robert Griffin III yet.
It makes sense, then, to surround him with the best available offensive player. A lineman like Brandon Scherff is tempting, but Alabama's Cooper is a pro-ready wide receiver who will make an immediate impact in the passing game.
6. New York Jets: Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
Perhaps no player has benefited more from the marijuana issues surrounding both Randy Gregory and Shane Ray than Kentucky's Alvin Dupree.
Dupree has freakish athleticism for a man his size, and he's crept comfortably into the top-10 discussion in recent weeks. Posting a 40-yard dash time in the low 4.5s while weighing 269 pounds is sensational.
Head coach Todd Bowles will enjoy utilizing Dupree in a similar role to how the New England Patriots use Jamie Collins.
7. Chicago Bears: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
Many thought Danny Shelton would be a target for the Chicago Bears at pick No. 7 because he could be the immovable force in the Bears' new 3-4 defense. But the team should be able to get a player like Eddie Goldman or Jordan Phillips in Round 2, and it can't possibly pass on White if he's still there.
White has rare athleticism, like the kind that only Julio Jones and a few others have.
The Bears moved on from Brandon Marshall in the offseason, so adding White would give quarterback Jay Cutler another big target in the receiving game.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
It seems like every year, the Atlanta Falcons need a pass-rusher, and halfhearted attempts that have brought in Kroy Biermann and Adrian Clayborn won't solve their problems.
If Atlanta doesn't trade up for Fowler or Williams—a strong possibility—Clemson's Vic Beasley is the pick at No. 8. Beasley tore up the NFL Scouting Combine, and his incredible numbers suggest he can be a dynamic force at the next level.
9. New York Giants: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
It's a very New York Giants move to stay put and take the best available lineman. In this situation, general manager Jerry Reese will have his choice between Andrus Peat and Brandon Scherff, and Peat gets the nod because he's likelier to stay at tackle at the NFL level.
Left tackle Will Beatty isn't the long-term answer and 2013 first-round pick Justin Pugh may be better off moving inside to guard. Adding Peat to the line will help extend the career of quarterback Eli Manning.
10. St. Louis Rams: Brandon Scherff, G/OT, Iowa
The St. Louis Rams desperately need offensive line help to protect new quarterback Nick Foles. As of now, Greg Robinson and Rodger Saffold are the only offensive linemen guaranteed to be 2015 starters, although Joe Barksdale could still be re-signed.
Insert Iowa's Brandon Scherff, and the Rams get a player who should be a Week 1 starter and future Pro Bowler at guard.
11. Minnesota Vikings: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
Despite the intrigue that goes with adding Teddy Bridgewater's college teammate, Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker, the Minnesota Vikings need help at cornerback more than wide receiver.
Xavier Rhodes is a star in the making, but Captain Munnerlyn and Terence Newman are merely stopgaps. Trae Waynes ran a blistering 4.31-second 40-yard dash at the combine, and the Vikings need him to shore up a defense that has to face Aaron Rodgers twice every season.
12. Cleveland Browns: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
The Cleveland Browns have the ammunition to trade up for Mariota should they feel interested, although that would mean giving up on 2014 first-round quarterback Johnny Manziel after just one season.
It's likely they'll go with Manziel—and Josh McCown—in 2015 and try to add more talent on the offensive side of the ball. With Parker still on the board, that's an easy selection for general manager Ray Farmer.
Parker would become the immediate go-to guy in a receiving corps otherwise missing Josh Gordon (one-year suspension) and featuring Dwayne Bowe (no touchdowns in 2014) as well as Brian Hartline (just two touchdowns in 2014).
13. New Orleans Saints: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
The New Orleans Saints have certainly had an interesting offseason. They shocked the football world by trading away tight end Jimmy Graham, which does give them two first-round picks and the ability to move up should they feel interested.
They also moved playmaking wide receiver Kenny Stills, so it isn't out of the realm of possibility that they'll draft a wide receiver early.
Still, upgrading the defense is far more important, and the Saints could really use the best available player. Ray and Gregory have done their best to drop their names from first-round discussions, but they're still conceivably in the mix, along with Shelton and a slew of defensive backs.
Given QB Drew Brees' age (35), the Saints need to win now, and getting an NFL-ready cornerback in Marcus Peters will hopefully tighten up a defense that badly needs secondary help.
14. Miami Dolphins: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Let's make one thing clear: There's absolutely no way the Miami Dolphins should pick Todd Gurley in the first 15 selections, especially considering they have a 24-year-old running back coming off a 1,000-yard season with an average of 5.1 yards per carry in Lamar Miller.
But it would be a very Dolphins thing to do.
According to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald (h/t SI.com), owner Stephen Ross is smitten with Gurley, so don't rule out Miami trading up for Gurley in the top 10 picks.
That would certainly break the mold of the last two NFL drafts that saw zero running backs selected in the first round—a far cry from the 2012 (Trent Richardson, third overall) or 2005 (three running backs in top five picks) drafts.
Gurley is a ridiculous talent, and Beasley suggests he would be the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson if he hadn't torn his ACL in 2014.
He will make life much easier for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and a two-headed backfield of Miller and Gurley will make the Dolphins' running game arguably the NFL's finest.
15. San Francisco 49ers: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
This should be a slam-dunk pick for the San Francisco 49ers.
New head coach Jim Tomsula is a former defensive line coach. Whether or not defensive end Justin Smith retires this offseason, he's 35 years old and the writing is on the wall for his eventual departure.
Oregon's Arik Armstead has tremendous size to play as a 5-technique defensive end. It's doubtful he'll be drafted before this selection, and if he's here, San Francisco's decision will likely come down to Armstead or Shelton.
16. Houston Texans: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
Predicting what the Houston Texans will do is extremely difficult. The team could look to upgrade at wide receiver, seeing as Andre Johnson is now in Indianapolis. A cornerback is logical, seeing as Kareem Jackson is 27 and Johnathan Joseph is 31.
Safety Landon Collins may get the vote, given 2013 second-round pick D.J. Swearinger's struggles.
But with Gregory still on the board, he's too good of a talent to pass up. Whitney Mercilus, the team's 2012 first-round draft choice, hasn't panned out, and Jadeveon Clowney's offseason microfracture knee surgery shouldn't be taken lightly.
Gregory will ensure that the Texans' front seven remains a force, as he'll team with J.J. Watt and new acquisition Vince Wilfork to pressure opposing quarterbacks.
17. San Diego Chargers: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
Adding a first-round running back has to be tempting, but it may be too much of a reach to go with Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon here.
The top two corners, Waynes and Peters, are off the board. However, the San Diego Chargers will still have their pick from a trio of top cornerback talents: Jalen Collins, Byron Jones and Kevin Johnson.
Collins didn't have elite production at LSU, recording just three interceptions in three seasons. The marijuana issues may scare some teams off, too. But he does have NFL size (6'1", 203 lbs) and would ideally team with last year's first-round corner, Jason Verrett, to give the Chargers a formidable tandem.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
While Andy Reid doesn't have complete control over draft-day decisions with general manager John Dorsey there, bet on the Kansas City Chiefs taking an offensive lineman.
This organization doesn't spend to keep linemen, whether it's Branden Albert, Justin Blalock or Rodney Hudson. With Hudson having left for Oakland, there's a void at the center position.
Florida State's Cameron Erving—who attended the same school as Hudson—would be an instant starter. He has the versatility to play multiple positions on the offensive line, so he could theoretically be moved to tackle if Eric Fisher doesn't begin playing better.
19. Cleveland Browns: Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
Getting big nose tackle Danny Shelton with the 19th overall pick would have to feel like a steal for Cleveland, as there's a good chance the team will strongly consider him with its 12th selection.
Shelton is the prototypical 3-4 nose tackle that Phil Taylor never developed into. Shelton would play the 0-technique role and ideally occupy double-teams, allowing Barkevious Mingo and Paul Kruger to rack up sacks.
20. Tennessee Titans (via Trade): Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
Gone are the days of stalwarts Michael Roos and David Stewart. Now the Tennessee Titans have promising 2014 first-round pick Taylor Lewan at left tackle but largely an unknown on the right side.
Oregon's Jake Fisher—a fine pick for the Philadelphia Eagles if the team doesn't trade up with the Titans—can play both guard and tackle. He's likely to suit up at right tackle for the Titans, where his athleticism as a run-blocker will help a running game that ranked just 26th in yards a year ago.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: La'el Collins, OT, LSU
The recent news surrounding LSU's La'el Collins, reported by Burt Hubbuch of the New York Post, may drop his stock slightly, but he's still a top-tier talent likely to go in Round 1.
The Cincinnati Bengals have a strong offensive tackle tandem in Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith, but Over the Cap indicates both are set to become free agents after the 2015 campaign.
While Collins may sit as a rookie, much Lewan did last year with the Titans, this is a pick more for the future than it is for right now.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
Replacing a Hall of Fame player like Troy Polamalu is nearly impossible to do, but drafting a first-round talent like Collins is a good way to start.
Described as a "heat-seeking missile" by Dane Brugler on DallasCowboys.com (h/t Rotoworld), he's the best bet to shore up a Pittsburgh Steelers secondary that has been lacking in star talent as of late.
Should Collins be off the board already, the Steelers are in a position where they will have to strongly consider whichever player happens to be the highest-rated defensive back on their board.
23. Detroit Lions: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
Losing a once-in-a-generation talent like Ndamukong Suh hurts, but losing both Suh and Nick Fairley in the same offseason leaves the Detroit Lions in a bind.
Texas' Malcom Brown will hopefully alleviate some of that pain, as he's a natural 4-3 pass-rushing defensive tackle.
Putting Brown on the same four-man front as BYU's Ezekiel Ansah, a 2013 first-round pick, will give Detroit a defensive line that can make life difficult for Aaron Rodgers and the division rival Green bay Packers.
24. Arizona Cardinals: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
The Arizona Cardinals need to instill some life into their running game or risk repeating another season in which they rank dead last in the NFL in yards per carry (3.3).
Andre Ellington is a fine complement to a power back, but he's not an ideal No. 1 option. With Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon still on the board, expect general manager Steve Keim to snatch him up.
Gordon has the ability to handle a full workload as a rookie, and a talented running game will help quarterback Carson Palmer as he rebounds from another torn ACL.
25. Carolina Panthers: T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
The 2014 Carolina Panthers never recovered from Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Gross' surprise retirement, and there's still no long-term left tackle on the roster.
In this scenario, the Panthers get their pick from T.J. Clemmings, Ereck Flowers or D.J. Humphries. While all are fine selections, Clemmimgs gets the nod because he has arguably the highest ceiling of the group.
Bob Sturm of the Dallas Morning News compared him to Dallas Cowboys All-Pro tackle Tyron Smith, which suggests he will be protecting Cam Newton's blind side for many years.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
Baltimore Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome is an annual candidate to trade up or down, depending on how the first round plays out.
If he stays put, a cornerback makes the most sense. Jimmy Smith's $48 million extension locks him in at one spot, but Lardarius Webb—who just took a paycut—is 29 years old and likely near the end of his days as a starter.
Byron Jones is a physical freak of an athlete. In fact, there aren't many players in the NFL with his skill set. Three Sigma Athlete's Zach Whitman shared some impressive numbers.
"Byron Jones will become the fifth active NFL player with a SPARQ score more than three standard deviations above average.
— Bryn Swartz (@eaglescentral) April 14, 2015"
He would have an excellent opportunity in Baltimore to begin as a depth player and then work his way into the starting lineup as either a cornerback or safety.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA
The old Jerry Jones probably would have traded up for Gurley or Gordon—or shipped a boatload of draft picks for Adrian Peterson—but the new one seems to have grown wiser as of late.
The Cowboys have built one of the game's best offensive lines with a trio of recent first-round picks, and this year, the best available defensive lineman would make sense. After all, the 2014 club lacked standout 3- and 7-technique pass-rushers, and Odighizuwa could help the team get to the quarterback.
28. Denver Broncos: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
The Denver Broncos need to upgrade the right side of the offensive line, especially with Louis Vasquez moving back to guard from right tackle.
Protecting quarterback Peyton Manning should be the top philosophy for the Broncos in this draft. A big wide receiver would be nice, especially if Demaryius Thomas leaves after 2015 as an unrestricted free agent, but a right tackle trumps everything else.
Ereck Flowers is 6’6”, 329 pounds and put up a ridiculous 37 bench press reps. He should be a Week 1 starter and long-term fix at right tackle.
29. Indianapolis Colts: Damarious Randall, S, Arizona State
Arizona State’s Damarious Randall has skyrocketed up draft boards, and he should go in the first round. The Indianapolis Colts are in a position to take the best player available. After all, outside of quarterback Andrew Luck, their roster really isn’t that good.
Randall is a playmaker who can contribute at cornerback and safety.
He will team with cornerback Vontae Davis and veteran safety Mike Adams—fresh off his first career Pro Bowl—to solidify a defense that ranked just 19th in points allowed in 2014.
30. Green Bay Packers: Paul Dawson, ILB, TCU
The Green Bay Packers are in a fine position to sit back and take the top available player, and TCU inside linebacker Paul Dawson is a tackling machine who can replace the recently released veteran A.J. Hawk.
Dawson didn’t test well at the NFL Scouting Combine, and he’s going to be much more of a run-stopper than a cover linebacker with that 4.93-second 40-yard dash. But he’s a tackling machine who is fresh off a Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award, and he should make an immediate impact with the Packers.
31. New Orleans Saints: Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
The New Orleans Saints made a shocking offseason decision when they traded away Graham, arguably the best tight end in the whole league.
So replenishing Brees’ receiving corps with their extra first-round pick is a start. Central Florida’s Breshad Perriman didn’t put up top-tier numbers in 2014 due largely to shoddy quarterback play, but he has incredible physical tools that suggest he could be a dominant force in the Saints offense.
Perriman registered 40-yard dash times of 4.24 and 4.27 seconds at his pro day, and he and Brandin Cooks would be a terrific 1-2 receiving tandem.
32. New England Patriots: Shaq Thompson, OLB/S, Washington
Head coach Bill Belichick will likely trade up or down in this year’s draft. Knowing Belichick, he’ll find a way to turn his 2015 first-round pick into a slew of high draft picks in 2016.
But should Belichick stay put, Washington’s Shaq Thompson is a versatile chess piece of a defensive player who can line up all over the field. Thompson just made plays last year at Washington, scoring four defensive touchdowns while also contributing at running back.
Thompson would probably play safety for the Patriots, but Belichick will move him around and use his talents to his advantage.
Combine information courtesy of NFL.com.
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