
Best Possible Outcomes for Minnesota Vikings' Top 3 Draft Picks
The Minnesota Vikings were painfully quiet during free agency this year, which led many fans to question the team's reluctant approach to improving its roster. Fortunately, general manager Rick Spielman tends to save his best for draft day.
Minnesota did acquire wide receiver Mike Wallace via the Miami Dolphins, but Spielman's failure to address glaring deficiencies at offensive guard, cornerback and linebacker remains hard to ignore. To make matters worse, the Adrian Peterson saga is trending in a direction that suggests running back will soon become a positional need as well.
Enter the 2015 NFL draft.
Suspiciously—maybe the shrewd Vikings GM has had a plan all along—this year's class is rich with prospects corresponding with Minnesota's roster flaws. There is a bounty of talented NFL hopefuls itching to test their skills at the sport's highest level.
Many of these former collegiate standouts are of the running back and offensive guard variety, which should help ease Minnesota's transition from Peterson and (the previously released) Charlie Johnson.
Furthermore, this class is loaded with a crop of high-upside cornerbacks. This positional group may lack a consensus top-10 pick, but the Vikings' scouting group should be able to pinpoint a more capable option to play opposite of budding star Xavier Rhodes within the team's improving secondary.
Naturally, this gives Minnesota's draft-savvy GM a multitude of favorable draft strategies to consider.
The Vikings did not garner any compensatory picks this year, but the team still maintains three selections inside the top 76 to work with—picks No. 11, 45 and 76.
Considering the devaluation of the running back position and the popular perception—minus Jerry Jones—that interior offensive linemen are better fit to be mid-round selections, Spielman and his team could acquire an opening-week starter at both of these positions without having to spend an early-round pick.
With that said, the veteran Spielman could opt to add a top-end talent to cover up a gaping roster hole left by, for example, a certain disgruntled running back.
Attempting to specifically project Spielman's strategy would be foolhardy, especially considering his history of draft-day unpredictability. Through the guidance of his previous strategies, however, it may be possible to forecast a few realistic, roster-improving outcomes.
Let's take a look at just a smattering of plausible best-case scenarios that Spielman's early-round wizardry could yield come late April.
Scenario 5: Safety, Running Back, Cornerback
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Introduction
In order to receive optimal value in this scenario, Spielman would need to execute one of his vintage draft-day trades. While the first-round pick listed here may be a bit of a reach at pick No. 11, few would oppose the pairing he would form alongside Minnesota's game-changing free safety.
First-Round Pick: S Landon Collins, Alabama
Safety Robert Blanton does not rank first on the list of Minnesota starters who are replaceable, but he definitely doesn't have opposing offensive coordinators (or Eddie Lacy) too worried.
"Packers' Eddie Lacy Runs Over Vikings' Robert Blanton on 2 Runs, Pops His Helmet Off: http://t.co/Rp8uTrZ6FQ via @YouTube
— The Fumble (@TheFumbleSports) October 3, 2014"
As for Lacy's former teammate Landon Collins, however, he should cause reason for concern. The former Alabama safety is a lethal combination of athletic and explosive. While he does lack the ball-hawking skills that made his former partner, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, a first-round pick last year, Collins is a sure tackler and stands out the most when defending against the run.
In a class of second-rate safety prospects, Collins is truly the only one worthy of a first-round pick. His aggressiveness and discipline may have gotten him into trouble at the collegiate level—namely due to his lack of catch-up speed—but these are traits shared by many successful Mike Zimmer defensive back projects—such as another former Alabama defensive back, cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick.
Collins may be young—he is only 21 years old—inexperienced and a bit "set in his ways," but his skill set correlates well with Zimmer's assertive coaching style as well as the ball-hawking nature of his would-be battery mate, Harrison Smith.
Second-Round Pick: RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana
If Adrian Peterson does force the Vikings to trade him, Indiana's Tevin Coleman would be an appealing successor. He doesn't possess the generational abilities of Georgia's Todd Gurley or the game-breaking tendencies of Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon III, but Coleman is more than capable of being a successful featured back in the NFL.
Coleman possesses all the intangibles of a great running back—he is decisive, fearless and treats every carry like it may be his last. With that said, these traits do reflect negatively on his patience, which isn't subpar but has room for improvement.
Most importantly, Coleman is tough in every sense of the word. This entire paragraph could be dedicated to how this one intangible defines his game, but CBS Sports draft analyst Dane Brugler sums it up nicely:
"RB Tevin Coleman is one of the toughest dudes in the Draft. Toe injury in 5th game, didn't miss time and was 4th fastest ever to 2,000 yards
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 27, 2015"
Additionally, Coleman is an explosive runner who hits even the smallest holes with authority. He may not break ankles with his shiftiness on a regular basis, but Coleman has no issue lowering his head and driving through an undersized defensive back—the term undersized is used for dramatic flare here; Coleman will bow his shoulder into a Ndamukong Suh-sized player as well.
Vikings fans have been spoiled by the greatness of Peterson—and many fail to see any running back prospects past Gurley—but Coleman is a three-down running back with special qualities. Adjunct with McKinnon, Coleman could instantly have Minnesota's running game back to where it was pre-Peterson scandal.
Third-Round Pick: CB Quinten Rollins, Miami (Ohio)
In the past, Spielman has frequently targeted cornerbacks in the third round. He did so twice under the title of vice president of player personnel with Marcus McCauley (2007) and Asher Allen (2009). Upon being officially recognized as Minnesota's general manager, Spielman wasted no time in continuing this strategy by drafting Josh Robinson at No. 66 overall in 2012.
Assuming he is still available—and many have him as a riser—Miami of Ohio product Quinten Rollins could change the assumption of Minnesota third-round cornerbacks. Robinson still has a role on the team, but the previous pair was never more than average—McCauley and Allen were both given a multitude of opportunities, but neither made it through his rookie contract.
Rollins won't blow anybody away with his measurements or test results, but he has good instincts and shows natural coverage ability. He is also a fearless tackler—something that can be said a lot about the 2015 cornerback class but not the positional stereotype—and will fight to intercept errant throws.
However, he is a bit of a project and tends to be a bit hit-or-miss with draft analysts. Brugler, for example, is high on the small-school prospect:
"Miami (OH) DB Quinten Rollins is a name in my mock draft that might surprise some. Could have a Jimmie Ward like rise after the Senior Bowl
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) January 19, 2015"
NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein, on the other hand, believes he needs some time to develop before becoming a quality starter: "With more work on technique and overall discipline, Rollins has the physical tools to be a very good NFL starter."
If nothing else, nobody doubts Rollins' potential. However, there is a bit of a fear his heart isn't truly in it since basketball is his "first love," as noted by Zierlein. Still, if he does end up falling to the third round, the Miami of Ohio product would be a solid weapon for Zimmer to sharpen.
Scenario 4: Cornerback, Offensive Tackle, Running Back
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Introduction
Assuming the worst with Peterson, the running back position would immediately become a major question mark; McKinnon will enter 2015 coming off of a major injury, and Matt Asiata doesn't exactly meet "featured back" standards.
Furthermore, running the ball (currently) projects to be even more difficult next season due to Minnesota's lack of a definitive starter at left guard. This scenario attempts to fix these issues and form an elite secondary unit on defense.
First-Round Pick: CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State
Bleacher Report's Matt Miller has suggested that Washington's Marcus Peters is the top dog of the 2015 cornerback class. In fact, he doesn't even rank Michigan State's Trae Waynes in his top three:
"Post-Combine CB rankings: Marcus Peters, Jalen Collins, Ronald Darby, Trae Waynes, PJ Williams.
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 23, 2015"
Miller has an excellent track record, but his report on Waynes tends to be an outlier among popular draft analysts, as shown by Brugler's take on the Spartan defensive back:
"Trae Waynes only cementing himself as the No. 1 CB w/ a 4.35 40-yard dash
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 23, 2015"
As informative as professional opinions may be, film and results tend to bear more weight. As noted by Zierlein, the ridiculously athletic Waynes allowed just two touchdowns while in coverage over his past two seasons at Michigan State. Furthermore, he managed to reach this feat while defending almost exclusively in man-to-man coverage against the opposing team's No. 1 aerial threat.
Waynes' ability to shadow his opponent in coverage—regardless of route—is second to none in this strong class of cover men. There are other solid cover cornerbacks in this class, but no other prospect has his resume—he allowed roughly 35 passing yards, courtesy of DraftBreakdown—against an Ohio State that put up a 49 spot on MSU.
As a sweetener, Waynes is an above-average tackler and can be successful as a blitzer off the edge, largely due to his low-4.3 speed.
Naturally, his fundamental skill set, solid measurements and elite test results have already caught the attention of the Vikings, according to Chris Tomasson of the Saint Paul Pioneer Press.
In terms of fit, his measurements and playing style reveal a striking resemblance to Dre Kirkpatrick—drafted specifically for Zimmer's scheme in Cincinnati—but Waynes' combine results vault him far past the Alabama product. Simply put, Waynes may not be the No. 1 cornerback on every big board, but his size (6'0", 186 lbs), coverage skills, tackling ability and general intangibles fit the "Zimmer mold" better than any of his peers.
Second-Round Pick: OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Had he entered the 2014 draft, Texas A&M's Cedric Ogbuehi was commonly regarded as a potential No. 1 overall pick. Unfortunately, his choice to remain in school turned out to be a bad one; Ogbuehi tore his ACL in early January, thus plummeting his draft stock.
Still, many analysts continue to maintain that the big offensive lineman is worthy of a first-round pick. With regard to his size (6'5", 306 lbs) and position, Ogbuehi's athleticism and versatility are virtually unparalleled. He played both tackle spots and guard in college, having success every inch of the way.
With regard to his athleticism, it's worth noting that Ogbuehi was asked to block for Johnny Manziel, a quarterback known for extending plays with his legs—also extends the time linemen are asked to block—for much of his career.
Linemen who are asked to block for improv quarterbacks (like Manziel) are inherently required to make coordinated, snap decisions that can be difficult to make without elite athleticism and being in sync with the quarterback. There is a lot to be said about Ogbuehi's mental, physical and athletic ability in just this simple nugget of information.
Ogbuehi, like every prospect, has technical flaws to his game, but he is already a mauling run-blocker and solid in pass protection. ACL injuries are scary, but an offensive lineman of this caliber deserves a second look, especially considering that he is on track to be ready for training camp—according to Yahoo Sports' Rand Getlin.
"Top OL draft prospect Cedric Ogbuehi tore his ACL in the Liberty Bowl. Set to have surgery soon. Expected to be ready for training camp.
— Rand Getlin (@Rand_Getlin) January 12, 2015"
The former Aggie has higher upside than every tackle prospect currently outranking him on big boards and will come much cheaper due to risk. Health assumed, he could step in immediately at left guard for the Vikings and ultimately shift to left tackle if Matt Kalil continues his downward trend.
If Ogbuehi does fall out of the first round, keep an eye on the Vikings as a candidate to capitalize, as Spielman has a consistent history of drafting his offensive tackles in the first and second rounds—he drafted Vernon Carey (No. 19 overall, 2004) as GM of the Miami Dolphins, Phil Loadholt (No. 54 overall, 2009) and Matt Kalil (No. 4 overall, 2012).
Third-Round Pick: RB David Cobb, Minnesota
As great as it would be to keep him in Minnesota, this projection has very little to do with where he played his college football—David Cobb is a legitimate three-down running back in the NFL, regardless of whether he played at Wisconsin, Georgia Tech or the University of Minnesota.
While not ranked as highly as Coleman, Cobb maintains a similar list of intangibles. He is consistent, tough—played through injury several times as well this past season—recognizes lanes quickly, anticipates blocks well and makes good, decisive decisions.
In fact, he one-ups Coleman in the patience category, as Cobb quite literally has built his career off basic running back fundamentals (both tangible and intangible).
Cobb managed to rush for 1,626 yards his senior season at Minnesota despite partnering with an anemic (to put it lightly) passing offense—quarterback Mitch Leidner passed for only 1,798 yards on a 51.5 percent completion rate.
Additionally, 54 percent of Cobb's yards (878) were recorded after contact, according to Zierlein. To put this outstanding statistic into perspective, then-Dallas Cowboy DeMarco Murray recorded 54 percent (998) of his 1,845 rushing yards after contact this past season, and Seattle Seahawks bulldozer recorded 63 percent (829) of his 1,310 rushing yards after contact in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.
In total, the Gophers offense passed for just 1,844 yards (nine attributed to Cobb) this past season and rushed for 2,813 yards, which amounts to a grand total of 4,657 yards.
Basic math reveals that Cobb accounted for ridiculous 35 percent of the Gopher offense while accounting for almost as many yards as the team's leading passer. By comparison, Melvin Gordon's 2,587 rushing yards represented 39 percent of the Wisconsin offense.
If he is capable of this much success without the benefit of a remotely threatening passing offense, Cobb should have little issue contributing immediately with Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is accurate and spreads the ball around efficiently, which is an added benefit that Cobb has only dreamed of pairing with.
Cobb isn't going to win with explosiveness, but his low-running style should translate directly to the NFL, and his top-end fundamentals should keep him in top-five running back-prospect consideration.
Furthermore, Cobb's deficiencies wouldn't even be a problem if Minnesota were to draft him. What Cobb lacks in explosiveness and agility, McKinnon more than makes up for. While not a guarantee by any means, given that McKinnon hasn't played since his injury and Cobb would (likely) have to make "rookie adjustments" like every other prospect, this could be a tandem that immediately secures the Viking rushing attack for the foreseeable future.
It shouldn't play a major role in draft decisions, but replacing Peterson with Cobb would be an ideal scenario from a publicity standpoint. The Gopher standout is already very popular in the Twin Cities, and his presence would help relieve the pain felt by "forever" Peterson supporters if (and when) he is traded.
With that said, it sure would be nice to have a running back who loves being a member of the Vikings again.
"Me and coach good friends already. Just let it happen.. 😁😁 @Vikings pic.twitter.com/zUYSuuhuNi
— HERCULES (@DCobb27) March 11, 2015"
Scenario 3: Outside Linebacker, Cornerback, Guard
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Introduction
As clear-cut as the past scenario was in terms of addressing needs, this one is a bit more complicated. Tom Pelissero of USA Today Sports pointed out recently that Minnesota and Chad Greenway are working to restructure his contract:
"Chad Greenway told me his agent and the #Vikings are working towards a new deal that will keep him in Minnesota for 2015. Wants to be here.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 18, 2015"
In theory, this hints that Zimmer intends to have Greenway starting at weak-side linebacker come September. But, he could also be moved inside if the right prospect were to fall into Minnesota's lap.
First-Round Pick: LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
One of the strangest first-round-caliber talents in recent memory, Washington's Shaq Thompson may hear his name called at the Auditorium Theatre before he knows his NFL position.
Thompson, who played linebacker, safety and running back in college, has the statistical portfolio of the most gifted player on a 20-man, small-town high school football team.
During his entire collegiate career, Thompson racked up 233 total tackles, 3.5 sacks, five interceptions, 14 pass defenses, five defensive touchdowns, three forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, 456 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, four receptions, 56 receiving yards, a 7.9 per-touch average on offense and a 30.4 per-interception average on defense.
Now that is a mouthful.
However, Thompson wasn't forced to play both offense and defense at Washington as the high schooler in the above analogy would certainly have been; the versatile Husky is just that good at multiple positions.
Not only could he step in at running back for a potentially Peterson-less Vikings team, but he (apparently) has the stamina to play some outside linebacker and safety while his quarterback is being coached up for the next offensive series.
Thompson's versatility imagines some completely unprecedented scenarios: 15-20 touches on offense and a rotational number of snaps on defense. If running backs decline at 30 years old, Thompson would likely have a foot in the grave at 28.
Obviously this will not be the case for the Washington gadget, but speculating as to how much Thompson could impact a Vikings team that has needs at outside linebacker, running back and (to a degree) strong safety is interesting.
Realistically, however, per USA Today's Tom Pelissero, Thompson has said he will play linebacker at the next level (and tested as such), but he still (should) be used as a safety situationally. For reference, Thompson actually tested best in relation to other running backs, but his strong safety percentiles show strengths as well.
As talented as he is, Thompson isn't dominant in one facet of any position he plays. He's a solid tackler, above-average in coverage—relative to the linebacker position—has a good nose for the ball—both in the air and on the ground—and possesses quick reflexes. Still, his instincts are no better than par whether he's lined up at the middle level of a defense or its secondary.
With that being said, the ability to utilize him in a number of different formations—and in multiple roles within these formations—makes Thompson an asset any creative defensive mind could benefit from. As much fun as Mike Zimmer would have with this Washington prospect, it'd be nerve-wracking just to hear the Buffalo Bills or New England Patriots call Thompson's name on draft day.
Rex Ryan or Bill Belichick would make Thompson look worthy of a top-five selection, despite forcing him to play in a 3-4 base scheme, which doesn't fit his general projection.
Simply put, pairing Thompson with Zimmer could form a crazy combination, and Minnesota truly can't afford to have Greenway covering tight ends and (accidentally) slot receivers again in 2015.
Second-Round Pick: CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
Some of the best prospects each year are the guys who run completely under the radar. Whether this is the result of playing for a small(er) school, being "boring" on film or simply having a very common-sounding name, these NFL hopefuls never receive the recognition they have earned.
Wake Forest's Kevin Johnson played his collegiate football at school better known for academics and (formally) basketball, is methodical in coverage and maintains one of the most simple first name-last name combinations in contemporary draft history.
Sure, fans who faithfully follow the ACC conference (and all its teams) and thorough draft analysts and NFL scouts have known about Johnson for quite some time now, but generally speaking, this outstanding Demon Deacon (questionable mascot) doesn't receive the public recognition that his play warrants.
Since it's worth repeating, Johnson is methodical in man-to-man coverage. As many young defensive backs do, he struggles to defend against curls and quick outs, but Johnson is top-of-the-class against vertical passing attacks and deep crosses. His tight coverage earned him the respect of many quarterbacks too, as Jameis Winston was one of few who willingly threw at him on a frequent basis.
If matched up against a poor route-runner, Johnson may not be seen for an entire game. His recognition ability is too well-developed, and he gets his hips around too quickly for a fundamentally subpar receiver to take advantage of him.
However, Johnson possesses a few traits that could significantly lower his draft stock. First of all, he's a poor tackler and is even worse at shedding blocks. He shows signs of adept tackling, but it is far too inconsistent to earn him even an average grade in this regard.
Additionally, he tends to have lapses in judgment, both mentally and physically, where he plays (or acts) out of control (and dangerously).
In just his tape against Florida State, Johnson can be seen giving a prohibited hand motion, which could have seen him removed from the game, as well as a very questionable tackle that reflected 90 percent of the definition of targeting. Sure, the hit resembled one of Kam Chancellor, but he has to find a way to control himself, or he could end up being a regular on the Roger Goodell fine list.
With his negatives accounted for, Johnson is still one of the top-three best prospects in coverage this year. These aren't flaws that can't be improved upon either—there is little chance Johnson would get away with his immature stunts on Mike Zimmer's watch—but a dysfunctional organization may be right to steer clear.
He's fluid, quick, intelligent and (seemingly) shows an adept understanding of his opponent's tendencies (both the quarterback and receivers)—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—which signals a good work ethic in the film room. These are the traits of a first-round-caliber cornerback, but a deep class and some iffy on-field decision-making may nudge him close to Minnesota's second-round draft spot.
If Spielman elects to go against what is somewhat expected (as of now) and not draft Trae Waynes at pick No. 11, Johnson represents a great consolation prize. Johnson can't tackle like Waynes—and he really doesn't pose a threat as a blitzer—but the man-to-man skills are top-notch and hard to ignore.
Johnson wouldn't be in play for the Vikings in the first round (unless the team were to trade down), but if he slips into the pick No. 29 to 32 area and Minnesota hasn't found its Rhodes clone, be wary of a potential trade.
Third-Round Pick: OG A.J. Cann, South Carolina
As interesting as Thompson and Johnson are to analyze, South Carolina's A.J. Cann is more on the boring side—which isn't a bad thing, as pointed out by SB Nation's Stephen White in his analysis of LSU's La'el Collins.
In Spielman's history of making draft decisions, he has yet to select an offensive guard earlier than the fifth round. But, if there was ever a year to break this tendency, it would be 2015. The Vikings currently have three options at left guard—Joe Berger, Mike Harris and David Yankey—all of whom draw groans from even the most optimistic Vikings fans.
Yankey could be the guy; Brandon Fusco, for example, went from sixth-round pick to nonexistent to full-time starter to contract extension in a blink of an eye. However, it's better to be safe than sorry when dealing with the livelihood of the Vikings' first franchise quarterback in a decade—if Daunte Culpepper isn't worthy of this title, then it's been considerably longer.
Drafting Cann with the No. 76 overall pick wouldn't even be a reach, as he's about as complete of a guard prospect as a coach can ask for. He is the definition of a mauling run-blocker, often pushing his man backward into the defense's second level. In this regard, Cann isn't boring on film, as his maneuvers as a run-blocker frequently appear to be violent and powerful.
He isn't quite as dominant in pass protection, but one could argue he was a better pass-blocker during his senior year at South Carolina than Charlie Johnson was for the Vikings this past season. Athletic interior defensive line play doesn't seem to fool him, but he can be overwhelmed. This doesn't occur frequently enough to severely damage his draft stock, but there is room for growth.
In terms of intangibles, Cann shows a good recognition of stunts—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—an area that cost Minnesota far too regularly in 2014. Cann's consistent approach shows confidence in himself, his blocking partners and his signal-caller; he doesn't ever allow emotions to get the best of him. Simply, Cann fits the cliche of having amnesia after a poor play, regardless of whether it was him or one of his teammates who was at fault.
Most importantly to his list of personality traits, Cann was a four-year starter at South Carolina, played 96.7 percent of his team's snaps and was voted team captain, according to Zierlein.
Typically, these traits are applied to quarterbacks, offensive tackles or middle linebackers, but they may be found in this class' best guard prospect as well. His on-field success and substantial list of team-building personality traits make him an ideal fit to hold down the left side for Teddy Bridgewater.
Scenario 2: Offensive Tackle, Inside Linebacker, Cornerback
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Introduction
After a plethora of sexy scenarios, Scenario 2 quickly brings us back down to earth. No fanbase ever wants to see an offensive lineman picked for its team in the first round, but there is almost always a general understanding as to why the selection was necessary. There is enough depth in this class for Minnesota to grab an impact player at a notable position in Round 2 and 3, making this potential outcome one of the most complete.
First-Round Pick: OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa
A lot of what was previously said about Ogbuehi can be said again about Iowa's Brandon Scherff. He is a pro-ready run-blocker and a solid pass-blocker. The pass protection portion of his game may require a year of development before Scherff is consistent against the league's best, but he certainly isn't a liability.
The Vikings currently maintain a substantial need at left guard and a relative need at left tackle, which is largely dependent on how Matt Kalil's offseason proceeds. Minnesota was vocal about its interest in determining (and fixing) the issues that caused both Kalil and Cordarrelle Patterson to fall off after Pro Bowl-caliber rookie seasons.
Patterson still has another season to find what he lost, but Kalil is on his last leg. This scenario seems to be one of the most likely as it is, and it has the potential to become the favorite. According to Rotoworld, Minnesota has until May 3 to pick up its fifth-year option on its 2012 top-five pick, something the team will certainly be doing with safety Harrison Smith (barring a prior contract extension).
Since the first day of the 2015 draft is April 30, it is possible for the Vikings to draft before announcing their Kalil plan, but this type of news tends to reach the public before Doomsday. And if this proves to be the case, Scherff would become the definitive favorite at No. 11 for Minnesota if he doesn't find a home in the top 10.
Furthermore, Scherff could still be in the Vikings' immediate future even if Spielman picks up Kalil's fifth-year option. The Iowa tackle is built more like a guard as it is (6'5", 319 lbs), and his biggest strengths (at this point in his career) suggest he would have more success at guard in the NFL.
Drafting Scherff and having him serve as Johnson's immediate replacement during his rookie season could be beneficial for all parties involved. This plan of attack would solve the Vikings' issue at left guard, allow David Yankey another year to gain weight and develop his techniques, present Kalil with a last-stand opportunity at left tackle and provide Bridgewater with better protection than he saw during his rookie season.
Simply, this move has the potential to solve a number of immediate issues and end up resulting in a multitude of organizational wins. Most importantly, it helps keep Bridgewater upright and trending upward, which should be viewed as priceless to a Super Bowl-starved Minnesota fanbase.
As I have stated in previous write-ups, Scherff would serve as an immediate-impact safety net, which, with how frequently players go down with injuries in the NFL, this is a coach's dream scenario.
Second-Round Pick: ILB Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State
If there were a remote chance for UCLA's Eric Kendricks to reach Minnesota's second-round draft slot, he would be tabbed in just about every scenario. Unfortunately, his stock has risen to the point where he is essentially a certified first-round pick, which leads us to the next man up: Mississippi State's Benardrick McKinney.
A case could be made for either TCU's Paul Dawson or Clemson's Stephone Anthony here as well, but Dawson shouldn't make it to pick No. 46 (even with his awful combine performance), and McKinney's upside squeaks him by Anthony. All three players represent good value here; there isn't much separation between the trio if all things (film, measurements, test results, upside, scheme fit) are considered.
The first thing the stands out about McKinney is his near-perfect frame for an inside linebacker. Standing at 6'4" and weighing 246 pounds, the former Bulldog ranks in the 94th and 70th percentile respectively. Adding some muscle could help him at the next level, but his body is pro-ready as it is.
To add to his perfect structure, he is an elite athlete both relative to inside linebackers and in general—his 40 ½" vertical leap ranks him in the 93rd percentile relative to the wide receiver position. It should come as no surprise, but his unbelievable vertical jump places him in the 99th percentile in comparison with his rival inside linebackers.
McKinney looks and possesses the talent to play the part, but his biggest knock is that his tape doesn't reflect the natural assumption made when viewing his body structure and athleticism. He really could have benefited from another year of collegiate football, but learning on the go has worked for others.
Given his size, it makes sense that he excels at clogging running lanes. However, despite rarely being caught out of position, he frequently takes himself out of the play. This is a product of a number of flaws he must work on to excel.
Both his play recognition and anticipation yield subpar grades. Against Auburn, for example, his first step was in the wrong direction on a very consistent basis. This could mean he hasn't developed good preparation skills or simply may be another knock on his recognition.
Although there will be far less trickery plays in the NFL, McKinney has to acquire a better understanding of what the opposing offense is trying to do and anticipate how it intends to accomplish it. These are issues that a good coach can improve dramatically over the course of a summer.
When he does anticipate correctly, however, McKinney takes good pursuit angles and is a wrap-up tackler who provides a thump to boot. As his big body would suggest, rarely did collegiate running backs fall forward after being hit head on by the Mississippi State product.
However, he was often able to get away with having his "hat down" when closing in on his target. This is a trait that can be easily corrected (if it hasn't already become habit). NFL-caliber rushers can take advantage of this fundamental deficiency, which could lead to an abundance of missed tackles.
McKinney does show good coverage skills, though. Being a freak athlete is a tremendous boost too, in that he is rarely matched up with an opponent he isn't capable of matching from an athletic standpoint. Also, the previously mentioned enormous vertical leap is a huge asset on passes over the middle. McKinney can swat or volley throws most inside linebackers wouldn't even be able to make a legitimate attempt at.
If nothing else, his coverage skills would provide an immediate upgrade to Jasper Brinkley, whose one-dimensional skill set forced Minnesota to seek other options in common passing situations.
Mike Zimmer specializes in defensive back development, but he took what many considered to be a "lost cause" in Vontaze Burfict and turned him into a star.
Although it isn't a favorable NFL comparison, McKinney's prospect report compares similarly to Rey Maualuga's, a former pupil of Zimmer. A 2009 scouting report for Maualuga identifies strengths in "athleticism, speed, tackling and coverage" and issues with "overpursuing ball-carriers and opening holes for savvy rushers to take advantage of."
Moreover, these standout collegiate athletes possess similar body structures and (somewhat) comparable athleticism, with McKinney maintaining a clear edge.
Based on McKinney's rough comparison to Maualuga (6'2", 249 lbs), he could be a good fit for Zimmer's scheme. He possesses the same abilities with much higher potential. Taking this all into consideration, Minnesota could be the perfect landing spot for McKinney to unleash his potential.
Third-Round Pick: CB Byron Jones, Connecticut
Connecticut's Byron Jones, who stands at 6'1" and weighs 199 pounds, possesses the above-average size many teams—Minnesota included—are looking for in a contemporary cover man. As enticing as his above-average height, weight and length (32-inch arms) are to a cornerback-needy team, it is Jones' literally unrivaled athleticism that vaults him into early-round consideration.
In potentially the greatest combine performance of all time, Jones recorded a 6.78-second three-cone drill (78th percentile), a 3.94-second 20-yard shuttle (92nd percentile), a 10.98-second 60-yard shuttle (94th percentile), an astounding 44.5-inch vertical jump (99th percentile) and a record-breaking 147-inch broad jump (100th percentile).
Not only did Jones' jaw-dropping broad jump break the NFL Scouting Combine record, but the distance topped a 46-year-old world record as well.
Jones is an incredibly gifted athlete, but he (somehow) may be an even more impressive person. According to Zierlein, an NFC North scout deemed the former Husky a "high-character player with vision and instincts you want from an NFL cornerback." To reinforce this perception, Jones was voted his team's captain this past season, and his draft profile notes he "inspires" his teammates.
Additionally, Kevin Duffy of MassLive reported Jones' noted intelligence stretches far beyond the confines of a football field:
"Patriots might like UConn CB Byron Jones. Good size (6-1, 199). Can cover slot receivers. Smart guy who interned at U.S. Capitol in 2013.
— Kevin Duffy (@KevinRDuffy) February 21, 2015"
He doesn't possess the shadowing ability of Trae Waynes or the ball skills of Marcus Peters, but Jones is an adept cover man in his own right.
Naturally, he uses his positional intelligence, great instincts and anticipation to build a fundamental base, from which point his athleticism, size, length and passion take over.
Jones does struggle a bit in man-to-man coverage, though, as he has issues shadowing receiver cuts on comeback and out routes. This occasionally leads to him losing his footing as well.
Press coverage, on the other hand, is Jones' strength. His long arms, big hands (10", 94th percentile) and above-average strength allow him to control the opposing receiver's range of motion. There are many instances where he is able to hold his opposition within the five-yard contact range.
Possibly his most impressive trait in coverage, however, is his ability to maintain positioning in the event an opposing quarterback is able to extend the play. One of the best examples of this came in coverage against East Carolina wide receiver Cam Worthy—courtesy of DraftBreakdown.
As the brief clip shows, Jones trails Worthy from the line of scrimmage, to the inside, back to the outside and then vertically into the end zone. In total, he maintained coverage for eight seconds; quarterback Shane Carden ultimately delivered an ill-advised pass in the direction of Worthy, which Jones was able to make a play on.
The talented Connecticut cornerback employed his uncanny vertical-leaping ability to high-point the ball before it could drop safely into the hands of another wide receiver, Isaiah Jones—who was positioned behind the Husky coverage specialist. Making sure he landed with a foot in bounds, the talented cornerback planted a foot just in bounds, completing the interception and forcing a key red-zone turnover.
As nice as the interception was—especially when considering the score of the game—it was his extended coverage that was truly worth noting here. Jones may have issues maintaining coverage when the receiver has enough room (and momentum) to make defined cuts, but he neutralizes this weakness with press coverage—the shortened field certainly played a role as well.
In run defense, Jones is only an average fundamental tackler, but he takes good pursuit angles and is better than the average defensive back at shedding blockers. Given his other positional assets, however, it is hard to imagine many scouts being turned off by his average tackling skills.
He did suffer a season-ending injury during Connecticut's Week 7 game this past season, however. With that said, Jones had recovered enough from his shoulder surgery to participate in every combine drill with exception to the 40-yard dash.
It's also worth noting that Jones possesses excellent speed, as this trait would normally be defined by an existing 40-yard dash time, which there is not currently an official record of. Had he participated, Jones' time would have likely come in at around the 4.4-second mark, proving he possesses the necessary speed to make up for gaffs in vertical coverage.
Even when factoring in his injury, there shouldn't be an NFL team that is not interested in Jones. Sure, he isn't an elite prospect, but there is limitless potential embedded in his athleticism, intelligence and drive. Plus, his off-the-charts character grade makes him that much more appealing—especially for a team, such as the Cleveland Browns, who seemingly lacks a definitive leader, motivational voice and inspirational presence.
Simply, Zimmer could find a fit for Jones based exclusively on his size and athleticism. His ball skills would be a great addition to a Vikings secondary relying almost exclusively on Harrison Smith for its interceptions.
The risk of his shoulder flaring up may slightly hurt his draft stock, but the Vikings would be lucky to gain everything he brings to the able at the expense of only a third-round selection.
Scenario 1: Wide Receiver, Cornerback, Inside Linebacker
5 of 5
Introduction
Bringing in Mike Wallace filled an important need for the Vikings, but the subsequent release of Greg Jennings reopened the possibility of drafting a wide receiver at pick No. 11. Essentially, Minnesota replaced a 31-year-old possession receiver with a 28-year-old vertical receiver. However, the No. 2 wide receiver still remains a weakness—the original basis of the argument in favor of selecting a receiver in the first round.
If drafting Brandon Scherff to replace Matt Kalil is worth strong consideration, selecting DeVante Parker to upgrade from Charles Johnson maintains the same level of merit.
Similarly, if the intention behind acquiring the Iowa offensive tackle is for him to be an immediate solution to Minnesota's weakness at left guard, there are more cost-effective alternatives available deeper in the draft. Scherff's capability of playing offensive tackle is a sound insurance strategy, but Kalil's future with the organization maintains the same level of volatility as the Vikings receivers behind Wallace on the team's depth chart.
With that said, drafting a potential No. 1 wide receiver follows the same general draft formula as supplementing the offensive line—surround Teddy Bridgewater with a high volume of talented weapons and assets.
This course of action merely identifies a different positional uncertainty on Minnesota's offensive depth chart due to Parker representing an optimal value selection at the No. 11 pick.
In order to garner maximum value with each selection, the Vikings must draft team needs with respect to prospect depth at each position and/or in accordance with the general understanding of how players are inherently valued by position—this is always relative to how contemporary NFL rosters are structured.
For example, based on the NFL's contemporary positional hierarchy centered around the quarterback position—left tackles protect the quarterback, edge-rushers pressure the quarterback and so forth—guards are not generally valued as highly as alternative positions. This notion is further amplified by Spielman's historical reluctance to draft this position earlier than Round 5.
Therefore, it isn't logical for Minnesota to select a prospect to play offensive guard in the first round if its objective is to fill roster needs in accordance with optimal value—and Spielman's draft history suggests this to be the case.
However, the positional value of wide receivers has skyrocketed due to contemporary offenses being structured around their quarterback's ability to lead a prolific aerial attack. This significant inherent value in combination with the limited number of wide receiver prospects capable of improving the Vikings current receiving core further bolsters the argument in favor of selecting Parker in the first round.
The Vikings could elect to trade down or draft an alternative position representing an optimal value pick, but in this scenario, Spielman is intent on introducing the dominant collegiate tandem of Bridgewater and Parker to the NFL.
First-Round Pick: WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
Unfortunately, both Alabama's Amari Cooper and West Virginia's Kevin White (likely) will not be available when Minnesota is finally on the clock at pick No. 11. While either top wide receiver prospect would have been a considerable upgrade to the team's current positional depth chart, ending up with Bridgewater's favorite red-zone target at Louisville isn't too bad of a consolation prize.
At 6'3", 209 pounds, Parker has the height, length and athleticism Minnesota craves at the wide receiver position.
The current candidates to play opposite of Wallace next season—Charles Johnson (6'2", 215 lbs, 30 ½" arms, 39 ½" vertical jump) and Cordarrelle Patterson (6'2", 216 lbs, 31 ¾" arms, 37" vertical jump)—also possess above-average height, length and athleticism, but neither player has shown an ability to utilize these physical assets as an advantage.
Parker, on the other hand, has used these traits to consistently dominate collegiate defensive backs on his way to establishing himself as a definitive first-round prospect.
He has shown an elite ability to track pass trajectory and put himself in the best position to make a play on the ball. The former Louisville pass-catcher has unbelievable body control when attempting to bring in passes. How Parker utilizes this strength is specific to pass trajectory, as he is capable of high-pointing a catch or launching his body toward a perceived landing point.
This video—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—showcases Parker's body control. Instead of vertically attacking the ball, he throws his body outward to haul in a perfectly placed Bridgewater pass against Miami back in 2013.
His stature, 36 ½-inch vertical jump and, as a result, large catch radius allow Parker to consistently reach a higher point than his opposition, making him a nightmare to guard in jump-ball situations.
Although Parker can be seen pulling down jump balls all over the field, he naturally makes his most significant contributions on red-zone fade routes. His willingness to fight for position, like in this video—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—is a plus in itself, but the fact that he consistently comes out on top is impressive.
Not only is Parker great at using his size, but he is also lethal in the open field. The shake-and-bake move—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—he frequently uses to burst off the line of scrimmage also makes a few appearances after the catch throughout his college career.
In both video one (2012) and video two (2013)—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—Parker catches a short Bridgewater pass, puts on an array of twitch moves and then takes it the distance. His 2012 catch as a sophomore may be the most memorable reception of his collegiate career.
Tied at 24, Parker caught a short screen from Bridgewater and went to work. What may be most impressive here is the fact that, outside of the first juke, it doesn't look like he is trying. Parker uses a hard stab, freezes the defensive back and breaks around his outside shoulder with the help of a minor stiff arm. He then began to weave his way through defensive backs, using quick twitches to keep the surrounding safeties from having a definitive directional angle until it was too late.
The following season, Parker kept it simple. He caught a quick slant, faked inside to shrug off a linebacker and moves onto the next level. Parker shows a hard fake outside, allows the safety to commit and bursts back inside and into the open for six.
In addition to dominating the red zone and open field, Parker is dangerous going vertical as well. More importantly, Parker is capable of catching the deep ball in a couple of ways. As shown in this video—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—Parker simply has a good release and blows by his man. Bridgewater drops a perfect ball into his hands, and No. 9 turns it up into the end zone for a 75-yard score.
Assuming Parker can't get a perfect release—he may be the best of any 2015 prospect at releasing off the line, Cooper included—he has shown a consistent ability to create separation downfield.
In this video—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—Parker is initially slowed down by an attempt at press coverage. However, this doesn't last long, as the standout wide receiver gets off the press and past the 5-yard mark.
Whether by perfect design or by in-route decision, Parker feels his cover man begin to fall inside, and he immediately breaks off toward the corner of the end zone—to the surprise of zero Vikings fans, Bridgewater drops a dime in over his shoulder and into his hands as he crosses the plane.
Bridgewater and Parker were partners for three seasons at Louisville, combining for 105 completions, 1,815 yards and 26 touchdowns in 36 games played. Teddy is responsible for 67 percent of Parker's receptions, 65 percent of his receiving yards and 78 percent of his collegiate touchdowns. Correspondingly, 13.44 percent of Bridgewater's completions, 18.48 percent of his passing yards and a whopping 36.11 percent of his passing touchdowns at Louisville had Parker on the other end.
Considering his fundamental approach to the basics, wide range of receiver skills and his great personal relationship with Bridgewater, there may not be a better fit for the Vikings than DeVante Parker.
Second-Round Pick: CB Ronald Darby, Florida State
With the Bridgewater-Parker partnership reunited, Spielman decides it'd be unfair not to bring in the second half of Florida State's 2012 cornerback tandem—Ronald Darby.
Standing at 5'11" and weighing in at 193 pounds, Darby sizes up as a typical cornerback. Although his body structure doesn't hurt him, it is his athleticism and speed that place him in the elite positional prospect conversation.
Darby's 4.38-second 40-yard dash (90th percentile), 129-inch broad jump (91st percentile), 1.47-second 10-yard dash (96th percentile) and 41.5-inch vertical jump (96th percentile) chart his athleticism in elite territory. Byron Jones may have put up even more impressive combine numbers, but using him as a bar is simply ridiculous.
Although Darby is a subpar tackler who (really) struggles to shed blocks—Marcus Mariota specifically aimed at him with lead-blocking receiver screens, and Darby never came close to a tackle—he is arguably the second-best pure cover cornerback in the class. The Florida State cornerback ranks behind only Waynes and competes for the No. 2 spot with Kevin Johnson.
Darby's athleticism is supported by great positional intelligence, and he possesses adept recognition skills. But, his anticipation has room to grow, as he tends to get spun around by quick cuts on comeback routes.
With that said, his gaffs related to anticipation are frequently covered up by his 4.3 speed. As enticing as his athleticism is, what really makes Darby special is his ability have success in any type of coverage.
He spends the majority of his time in man-to-man, excelling especially against vertical shots and slant routes—courtesy of DraftBreakdown. Darby was specifically targeted twice in his 2014 matchup with Virginia—he also came off of coverage once prevent a Jalen Ramsey gaff but to no avail—and recorded two pass defenses.
The first is in the video above and showcases excellent coverage against a slant, one of the most difficult routes to stop. Darby gets right up into his receiver, and despite being pushed off a bit, he recovers quickly and gets his hands up in defense. The throw certainly could have been better, but the coverage was perfect minus the split-second slip.
His second pass defense very quickly outlined his recognition and man-to-man coverage skills, but Darby was still kicking himself afterward. It may just be a strange Florida State trend, but Darby has a tough time hanging on to interceptions—Xavier Rhodes has only one interception in 29 NFL games.
This video—courtesy of DraftBreakdown—explains why Darby managed only two interceptions throughout his collegiate career, with zero this past season. Again, the coverage is top-notch, but Darby has to find a way to hang on to pick-six interceptions like this.
As a whole, Darby is a subpar tackler—he will lay the boom on an unprotected receiver, however—awful at shedding blocks (especially on the goal line) and is an anti-ball hawk. However, and most importantly, Darby is an elite coverage prospect who can get the job done in man-to-man, press or zone.
Mike Zimmer seemingly values consistent coverage over gambling for a turnover, which could lure him into drafting Darby if he does manage to fall into the second round.
Third-Round Pick: ILB Denzel Perryman, Miami (Florida)
With Week 1 starters at running back and guard expected to be available in the fourth and fifth round, Spielman finds a solution at middle linebacker in Miami's Denzel Perryman.
Aside from his impressive 27 bench press repetitions, nothing stands out with Perryman in terms of measurements and combine results. In fact, he is significantly below average in just about every category except bench press and 40-yard dash (4.78 seconds, 44th percentile).
Perryman doesn't show much on paper, but his tape qualifies him as an early-round pick. He is a nasty player, fitting the stereotype for a middle linebacker. Corresponding with his nastiness, Perryman is a definitive thumper. This may come as a shock given his 5'11", 236-pound frame, but there may not be a more consistent heavy-hitter in this inside linebacker class.
His anticipation isn't ideal, but he shifts from diagnosis to on-the-ball in moments—Perryman wants to make the tackle. If he isn't going to make the tackle, however, he aims to be as disruptive as possible. Essentially, he makes up for a lack of athleticism and size with a high motor and passion for his role.
Defining him as an "old school" linebacker pretty much sums up his game.
Given this definition, it makes sense that Perryman is great with his hands. Daniel Jeremiah references this notion and his block-shedding ability in a brief overview of the Miami linebacker:
"Studying MIA LB Denzel Perryman... Nice to see a college LB actually shock/shed blockers. He has some snap in his hips/hands.
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) December 27, 2014"
The strengths that Jeremiah points out may be Perryman's biggest selling cards. Despite his size, again, he is excellent at shedding blockers and reaching his destination. There are multiple instances of him throwing blows that bounce significantly larger offensive linemen.
Perryman honestly is a very simple prospect. He was able to consistently fulfill his duties at the collegiate level, and there is good reason to believe this will continue. While he may be more refined than the aforementioned Benardrick McKinney, there isn't really any upside here—what Perryman shows on tape now is likely what he is.
His intangible traits may improve with experience, but he isn't going to beat anyone with his subpar athleticism and measurements. Still, Perryman wants nothing more than to win every play—a mentality that Zimmer emotionally advocated for this past season in various interviews, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra—and he will fight until the whistle blows.
Despite lacking any major upside, Perryman is the type of player every coach wants in his lineup. His toughness and—it's worth repeating—passion for the game truly separate him from more athletically gifted prospects.
Perryman's tape showcases him as a coach's dream, which makes him a perfect prospect for the hard-nosed, powerful personality of Zimmer.
All video clips courtesy of DraftBreakdown. Prospect measurements and NFL Scouting Combine results courtesy of Mockdraftable. Prospect statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
For more Vikings statistics, analysis and draft discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidell.
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