NFL Predictions Week 12: Expert Consensus Projections

The National Lead and Division Lead Writers showed an almost frightening ability to predict the future in this space last week.

The St. Louis Rams' upset of Denver? Got it.

Chris Borland's third straight huge game at linebacker for the San Francisco 49ers? Nailed it.

The fact that I'm lying about everything I just said? Bingo!

OK, so our esteemed panelists may not have been able to read the tea leaves in a wild and wacky Week 11, but that isn't going to stop them from giving it another try.

Much like the Oakland Raiders, we're just gonna keep rolling out there until we get it right.

With that in mind, here's a look ahead at Week 13 with Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections.

Upset of the Week

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Winner: St. Louis Rams (+4.5) over San Diego Chargers (5 votes)

In some respects, a victory by the St. Louis Rams over the San Diego Chargers Sunday wouldn't even be that big an upset. After all, the Rams are getting this giant-killing thing down pat.

After stunning the Broncos 22-7 last week, the Rams now have victories over both of last year's Super Bowl participants, as well as a win in San Francisco over the 49ers.

After last week's shocker, Denver quarterback Peyton Manning told Joe Lyons of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via The Denver Post) that the Rams defense is no joke:

"

I give them a lot of credit. I thought they played really well at all three levels: their front, their linebackers and the secondary. It's one thing if you're just three-and-out from the 20 every time, but we did have good starts to drives. I give them credit for executing their defense. I feel like I didn't do my job well enough. ... We had a good red-zone plan, and I don't think we ever got to call any red-zone plays.

"

Granted, the Rams have struggled at times on the road this year, but the Chargers have also had all sorts of issues protecting Philip Rivers of late, and that's enough for a handful of our panelists to pick the Rams to get the win.

Others receiving votes: Oakland Raiders (+9) over Kansas City Chiefs (2 votes), Cleveland Browns (+3) over Atlanta Falcons (2 votes), New Orleans Saints (-3) over Baltimore Ravens (2 votes), Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over Houston Texans (1 vote), Miami Dolphins (+8) over Denver Broncos (1 vote), Arizona Cardinals (+7) over Seattle Seahawks (1 vote)

Blowout of the Week

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Winner: Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars (7 votes)

Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars entered their bye week an 0-8 dumpster fire of a football team. However, a Week 10 win over the Tennessee Titans set the stage for a second-half bounce-back of sorts, with the Jags playing .500 ball over the second half of the season.

Well, this year the bye came later, and the dumpster fire's as bright and hot as ever.

However, our experts don't see the team's first post-vacation game this year throwing any water on it.

Granted, it wasn't a landslide, as a few pundits, including NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon, think another AFC South team is this week's best bet for a beatdown:

"

The Eagles will look to make a statement back at home after an embarrassing loss in Green Bay, and the Titans have to be deflated coming off a tough loss to the Steelers. On short rest, they could be in for a dud of a performance in Philadelphia. I don't think the Titans have the talent in the secondary to match up with Philly's weapons, and I expect Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis to have a field day with rookie Titans quarterback Zach Mettenberger.

"

However, it was the Jaguars who earned the title of this week's sacrificial lamb, as they head to Indy to face a Colts team seething after getting pasted by the New England Patriots on Sunday night.

Does anyone have any marshmallows?

Others receiving votes: Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings (4 votes), Philadelphia Eagles over Tennessee Titans (3 points)

Mismatch of the Week

Associated Press

Winner: Green Bay Packers offense vs. Minnesota Vikings defense (4 votes)

If our panel is any indication, there are a lot of long days on tap in Week 12. Seven different scenarios were represented as the biggest case of bug meets windshield.

For two voters, including Gagnon, it's Robert Griffin and the Washington Redskins who could be set to have a lot more to complain about after Sunday's sojourn to San Francisco:

"

The 49ers will get Aldon Smith back, but the real clincher here is that rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch is on fire rushing from the left side. He destroyed the right side of the Giants line in Week 11 and should have another big day against inexperienced Redskins right tackle Tom Compton and right guard Chris Chester, who struggled last week against the Buccaneers. Plus, Robert Griffin III looks shaky and short on confidence. And he continues to hold onto the ball too long. Big trouble there.

"

However, it's the Minnesota Vikings defense who drew the short straw this week, both from this panel and the football gods.

Here are a few numbers to chew on regarding the Green Bay Packers' recent offensive explosion, courtesy of Tom Silverstein of The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

"

Aaron Rodgers has thrown 322 consecutive passes at home without an interception, surpassing New England Patriot Tom Brady's mark of 288 for the longest such streak in NFL history.

He has thrown 29 consecutive touchdowns at home without an interception, the longest streak in NFL history.

Rodgers posted his seventh three-touchdown or more game with no interceptions this season, which is tied for second in NFL history with Denver's Peyton Manning and trails Brady's mark of eight.

In five home games this season, Rodgers has completed 96 of 144 passes (66.7%) for 18 touchdowns and no interceptions for a 138.1 passer rating.

In his last two games, Rodgers has completed 40 of 63 passes for 656 yards and nine touchdowns, and he has only played about six quarters total. For the season, Rodgers has thrown 28 touchdown passes with just three interceptions.

"

Yeah. Um, good luck with all that.

Others receiving votes: Kansas City Chiefs pass rush vs. Oakland Raiders (2 votes), DeMarco Murray vs. New York Giants defense (2 votes), San Francisco 49ers pass rush vs. Washington Redskins (2 votes), Miami Dolphins defensive line vs. Denver Broncos offensive line (2 votes), Clay Matthews vs. Matt Kalil (1 vote), Aaron Donald vs. San Diego Chargers interior linemen (1 vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

Tony Dejak/Associated Press

Winner: Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (4 votes)

On some level, it might seem odd that Brian Hoyer is the panel's pick as this week's breakout quarterback. After all, the sixth-year veteran had a horrible game in a loss to Houston last week, attempting 50 passes and completing only 40 percent of them.

However, there's a reason for the pick. Actually, there's 1,646 of them.

That's how many receiving yards Josh Gordon, who returns from his 10-game suspension this week, had last year.

Former teammate Nate Burleson told NFL Network (via Marc Sessler of NFL.com) that Gordon has made his 2014 plans very clear:

"

He said, 'I plan to lose 10 to 15 pounds and when I come back I'm going to tear this league up,' Now, this offense is different; it's not the same offense as last year. So, they're not going to be running and gunning, throwing the ball up the sideline, but definitely look for them to get Josh involved early, kind of to get his rhythm back.

"

Head coach Mike Pettine has pledged to ease Gordon back in, but heading into a matchup with Atlanta's league-worst pass defense, even Pettine's mom isn't buying that load of hooey.

Others receiving votes: Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles (3 votes), Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (2 votes), Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes), Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes), Kyle Orton, Buffalo Bills (1 vote)

More Passing Yards: Drew Stanton or Russell Wilson

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Winner: Drew Stanton (8 votes)

This vote is a prime example of how quickly things can change in the NFL.

At the beginning of the season, Russell Wilson was at the helm of the defending Super Bowl champions, with analysts far and wide predicting another big season, followed by an even bigger contract.

Drew Stanton was holding a clipboard.

But when the Arizona Cardinals travel to face the Seattle Seahawks Sunday, it's the 9-1 Cardinals in cruise control despite losing Carson Palmer for the season. The 6-4 Seahawks, on the other hand, are fighting for their playoff lives, in part because Wilson has struggled.

NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter expects the madness to continue in Week 12. "Drew Stanton has his faults," Schalter said, "but he's got an arm. As he proved against Detroit, he's got the arm to stretch the field with the big, athletic targets Russell Wilson just doesn't have."

Make no mistake. If the Seahawks lose this game Sunday, the Pacific Northwest is going to freak...out.

Sleeper RB Performance

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Winner: Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams (3 votes)

The large variance in votes for this category in Week 12 shows just how transient the running back position has become in the NFL. Seven different backs received at least one vote. None were really being counted on to contribute much to their teams this year.

That includes Latavius Murray of the Oakland Raiders, who AFC West Lead Writer Christopher Hansen thinks has emerged as the best bet in a crowded Raiders backfield:

"

Oakland's running game is on pace for the worst season of any team in history, so it was inevitable there would be changes. Running back Latavius Murray gave the Raiders a spark last week and should continue to see a lot of work Thursday night.

The Chiefs can become one of two teams ever to go 11 games to start a season without allowing a rushing touchdown, but their run defense ranks 31st in average yards per carry allowed. It's a very odd statistical split that is due for regression. The Raiders can't let the Chiefs pass rush get hits on Derek Carr, who is already dealing with a minor injury and should have a run-heavy plan on the rain-soaked field at O.co Coliseum.

Murray is an athletic freak and could give the Chiefs problems between the 20s. With some luck, Murray might also find the end zone.

"

However, the leading vote-getter this week was Tre Mason of the Rams. The rookie from Auburn posted his first 100-yard game in last week's upset of the Broncos, and while it took Mason nearly 30 carries to do it, the youngster told Kevin Patra of NFL.com sometimes you just have to keep pounding away:

"

That's just the way football is. Sometimes you have got to grind them out. It might not be a big play every play, but you've got to grind them out sometimes. That extra 1 or 2 (yards) means a lot when you're on the goal line, so if you're on the goal line, it can be the difference between a score and a first down.

"

There are bound to be plenty more chances for Mason to grind out those yards in San Diego this weekend.

Others receiving votes: Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2 votes), Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (2 votes), Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (2 votes), Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (2 votes), Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles (2 votes), Dan Herron, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote)

More Rushing Yards: Trent Richardson or Denard Robinson

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

Winner: Denard Robinson (12 votes)

This is where we've ended up with Trent "Wet Cardboard" Richardson.

Despite being a top-five pick in the NFL draft, then the basis of a trade that cost another first-round pick and a season-ending injury to Ahmad Bradshaw that leaves Richardson all alone atop the depth chart in Indianapolis, the vast majority of our experts predict that Richardson will be outgained on the ground in Week 12...by a converted college quarterback.

The AFC South is Rivers McCown's beat, so we'll let him explain:

"

It says a lot about where we're at with Trent Richardson that we have to actually discuss this. But here goes: Denard Robinson's team will likely be trailing for the majority of this contest, meaning he's not going to have favorable running situations. If you watched the Colts last Sunday night, you are well aware that they can't actually stop the run, so that's a plus. But Richardson should be favored to win this category because he should, in theory, get multiple chances to tote the rock on game-killing drives. Will that happen? I don't think so. With Ahmad Bradshaw gone, the Colts need to use that extra time to see how Dan Herron and/or whatever back they sign in the middle of the week works in their offense. The fact that they even have to bother with that is evidence alone of how poor Richardson has played.

"

So, basically, Richardson should "win," but he won't, because of the whole explosiveness of wet cardboard thing.

Yep, that about covers it.

Sleeper WR Performance

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Winner: Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers (3 votes)

For a pair of our voters, including McCown, the returning Josh Gordon is the pick for Week 12's out-of-nowhere wideout:

"

Josh Gordon's return to the NFL could not have come against a better opponent. The Falcons are dead last in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA metric, and the Browns should be able to control the game and give Gordon some play-action shots to get his feet wet. That is, of course, if Brian Hoyer can rediscover his early season form and keep the team from turning to Johnny Football.

"

It will be the first, last and only time Josh Gordon might qualify as a "sleeper."

NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski, on the other hand, feels Gordon's return will benefit teammate Andrew Hawkins:

"

Josh Gordon, the NFL's leading receiver in 2013, returns this week after a 10-week suspension. Gordon's mere presence will make it easier for the rest of the Browns wide receivers to get open and make plays. Gordon doesn't need to post a 100-yard game straight out of the gate. His ability to stretch the field vertically will force the Atlanta Falcons to keep a safety over the top and grant a dynamic slot receiver like Hawkins plenty of room to operate for the first time this season.

"

However, it was veteran Malcom Floyd of the San Diego Chargers who carried the day with three votes. Granted, the 33-year-old is on a pace that would net him less than 1,000 yards on the season, but the deep threat has a reputation for occasionally posting huge games.

Against a shaky Rams secondary, a trio of our experts see that very thing happening.

Others receiving votes: Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns (2 votes), Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys (2 votes), Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars (2 votes), Eric Decker, New York Jets (1 vote), Andre Caldwell, Denver Broncos (1 vote), John Brown, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote), Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland Browns (1 vote), Kenny Britt, St. Louis Rams (1 vote)

More Highlight-Reel Plays: Calvin Johnson or Rob Gronkowski

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Winner: Rob Gronkowski (9 votes)

If you're watching recaps of the game action on any given Sunday evening and the highlights turn to the Patriots or Lions, odds are tight end Rob Gronkowski or wide receiver Calvin Johnson will be making an appearance.

Stuff like this. And this. You know, the usual.

Well, the Lions travel to Beantown to face the Patriots in Week 12, so it seemed fair to wonder which player will rule the airwaves Sunday night.

About two-thirds of our voters expect that to be Gronkowski. That includes AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz, although Frenz took issue with the category itself:

"

I guess this really depends on your definition of a highlight-reel play, but Rob Gronkowski has been producing highlight-reel plays as both a receiver and a blocker. That adds up to more opportunities for Gronk to make a big impact.

"

Now, if you really want the full highlight-reel experience, scream this entire entry as you read it while inserting a cliched nickname for each player.

Throw in a Buffalo Wild Wings commercial, and you're all set.

Sleeper TE Performance

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

Winner: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 votes)

As often happens, there were quite a few nominees for this week's best "sleeper" tight end. Eight, in fact.

For two voters, including NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier, Oakland's Mychal Rivera is the pick:

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Rivera had just three catches last week, but he caught 21 passes in the previous three games, including eight catches for 38 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks a few weeks ago. I love it when a team starts targeting the tight end for a dozen five-yard passes per game, at least from a fantasy perspective: the team may be out of ideas, but suddenly you have the tight end equivalent of a third-down back who catches a zillion dump-offs. Rivera is the closest thing the Raiders have to a possession receiver, so the force-feeding should continue for the rest of the season.

"

However, a rookie won this week's honor. Fellow first-year pass-catcher Mike Evans has hogged all the headlines, but four voters think it's Austin Seferian-Jenkins who will steal the show in Week 12.

It may seem an odd choice given Seferian-Jenkins' rather paltry stats in his first NFL season, but once you consider the troubles the Chicago Bears have had defending tight ends this year, it makes a lot more sense.

And when I say "troubles," I mean that opposing tight ends have lit the Bears up like a Christmas tree all season.

Others receiving votes: Gavin Escobar, Dallas Cowboys (3 votes), Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders (2 votes), Scott Chandler, Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote), Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams (1 vote), Tim Wright, New England Patriots (1 vote), Garrett Graham, TE, Houston Texans (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

J Patrick Schneider/Associated Press

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (7 votes)

What, you were expecting someone else?

Granted, there were other defensive players who got some run this week. For NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson, it was San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Aldon Smith:

"

Best defensive performance: We could flip a coin here between Aldon Smith and Aaron Lynch. But going with Smith and his 42 sacks over 44 career games feels pretty safe, especially after he finished with two quarterback hits and six hurries during his first game back this season. Robert Griffin III has been sacked 11 times since returning from injury, and that punishment won't stop this week.

"

However, the leading vote-getter in this category is the same person it's been every week save his bye.

ESPN's Mike Sando (subscription required) recently ranked Watt sixth among the NFL's most valuable players:

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Watt is the only player in my Top 10 from a team without a winning record, but he also might be the best defensive player of his generation. He had a sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery, three tackles for loss and a TD reception against Cleveland in Week 11. He now has 9.5 sacks with six batted passes, nine tackles for loss, one INT, two forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries and four total TDs (two while lined up on offense). As long as Watt is dominating and the Texans are viable as a playoff contender -- they are currently 5-5, heading into a critical home matchup against Cincinnati -- Watt has to be under consideration. The fact that this is an award for most valuable player, not best overall player, hurts his candidacy.

"

Sando's points are valid, but I still think Watt got low-balled.

Others receiving votes: Justin Houston, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (2 votes), Aaron Lynch, OLB, San Francisco 49ers (2 votes), Aaron Donald, St. Louis Rams (2 votes), Aldon Smith, OLB, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote)

Over/Under: 3 Combined Sacks for DeMarcus Ware and Cameron Wake

Hans Deryk/Associated Press

Winner: Over (12 votes)

If our experts are any indication, it's going to be a Mile High massacre Sunday when the Miami Dolphins visit the Denver Broncos.

For the quarterbacks anyway.

Of course, that's not hard to understand. In Cameron Wake of Miami and DeMarcus Ware of the Broncos, the game features two of the league's best defensive ends. The duo has combined for 186 career sacks, including 17.5 this year.

According to ESPN's Michael Rothstein, Detroit head coach Jim Caldwell extolled Wake's virtues before a recent game against the Lions:

"

He’s powerful. He’s fast. He has a variety of moves so his upfield speed rush is extraordinary. He can run by you, and not only that, he can turn speed to power so the minute you think that, Hey, I’ve got to make certain to make my depth off the ball, he turns into you and can bull rush you with the best of them. Particularly knock you back and constrict the pocket, which he does extremely well. This guy, he is one of those compact, powerful, fast individuals that create havoc. Similar to a Dwight Freeney, not saying that he’s Dwight, but he’s got those kinds of traits in terms of explosiveness.

"

Wake seems to have drawn the short straw where the matchup is concerned this week, but our voters don't see any problem with Wake and Ware eclipsing three combined sacks this week.

Flop of the Week

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Winner: Jonas Gray, RB, New England Patriots (4 votes)

Wowza! Ask the gang here at Bleacher Report who this week's best player will be, and you get a handful of responses.

Inquire about the worst, and you get 10.

Bleacher Report NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski went with the aforementioned Rob Gronkowski:

"

The Patriots tight end generally falls under the distinction, 'You can't stop him; you can only hope to contain him.' However, the Detroit Lions are one of the best coverage defenses in the NFL. Safeties Glover Quin and James Ihedigbo have played extremely well this season and drew praise from Patriots head coach Bill Belichick this week. Neither safety can match up physically with Gronkowski, but they should be able to slow him, which could open the door for Tim Wright to have a big game for New England.

"

It was one of Gronkowski's teammates, and the team's newest star, who won this week's award that no one wants.

Sure, running back Jonas Gray stunned the Indianapolis Colts to the tune of 201 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns last week, but this week Gray and the Pats welcome in the Lions' league-best defense.

ESPN's Mike Reiss expects that much different matchup to inspire a much different game plan from the evil mind of Darth Hoodie:

"

There is little doubt in my mind that he can be their workhorse lead back when the game plan calls for that. I'd expect a different offensive approach this week, though, as the Lions rank No. 1 in the NFL against the run. The other thing I'd point out is this video from the team's official website, which has locker room footage from immediately after the game. The excitement teammates and coaches showed for Gray was notable to me.

"

For the record, we have no evidence Bill Belichick is evil.

OK, well not much evidence.

OK, but it isn't overwhel...

Oh, shut up.

Others receiving votes: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (2 votes), Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints (2 votes), A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote), Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns (1 vote), Peyton (gasp!) Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (1 blasphemous vote), Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots (1 vote), Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 vote)