B/R MLB Offseason 100: Top 100 Players Available in Free Agency, Trades
After looking at all the key positions individually, it's now time for the final stop on the B/R MLB Offseason 100.
The complete list.
If you're just joining us, the B/R MLB Offseason 100 has looked at the top free agents and trade targets available among starting pitchers, relief pitchers, corner infielders, middle infielders, catchers and outfielders. The idea was to narrow down which available players are the most desirable acquisitions based on how talented, durable and costly they are.
To do this, we devised the following scoring system:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we looked at how guys have performed recently and considered the outlook on their skills going forward. Think of 35 as a league-average player and 70 as an all-world, Mike Trout-like talent.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probed track records and injury histories for a projection on how players' bodies are going to hold up. Think of 10 as a tossup as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 signaling no concerns whatsoever. But to keep things fair, we allowed a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we tried to project what kind of contract or trade package it's going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he'd be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a megabust and 10 being a megasteal.
It all adds up to a possible total of 100 points, but please note that we used a slightly different system for relief pitchers. Whereas it's 70-20-10 for everyone else, we went 60-15-10 for relievers to account for the fact that they just don't spend much time on the field.
Informing the scoring was relevant data that came from Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball and Baseball Prospectus, which was also a go-to source for injury records.
Now that you know how everything works, you can start the show whenever you're ready.
Removed from the Top 100
1 of 101
One of the complications of keeping track of the top players on the free-agent and trade markets is that both markets are fluid. The list of players available is constantly changing.
As such, our Top 100 doesn't feature the same 100 players that were included in our individual positional rankings. We've made some new additions and bumped the following players from the list:
- Wil Nieves, C, Free Agent: With a subpar bat and only modest defensive skills, Nieves also only managed a score of 31 out of 100 in our system.
- Casey Janssen, RP, Free Agent: A 2.94 ERA and 81 saves over the last three seasons has Janssen in line for a solid payday, but a second-half meltdown in 2014 and concerns over his stuff and durability will make that payday an overpay. Hence why he only scored a 30.
- Ryan Howard, 1B, Trade: The Philadelphia Phillies may want to move Howard, but the decline of his offense, his injury history and the $60 million he's still owed earned him a score of 29 in our book. He may be available, but he might not be movable.
These aren't the only changes to be made to the top 100. Since qualifying offer decisions have been made, some players have had their value sections updated accordingly.
On these notes, it's on to the up-to-date list of the 100 most desirable players on the winter market.
100. Kendrys Morales, DH/1B, Free Agent
2 of 101
Talent Outlook
Following a decent .785 OPS and 23 homers in 2013, Kendrys Morales got a late start to 2014 and never really got on track on his way to ultimately finishing with a .612 OPS in 98 games. His timing just never looked right, and his power decrease is an accurate reflection of how rarely he squared the ball up.
This is scary because there's nothing more useless than a DH/1B-type who can't hit, field or run. And outside of his power coming back at the end of 2014, Morales didn't do much to generate optimism for 2015. He has his track record, sure, but even with that he represents a huge roll of the dice.
Durability Outlook
Morales has been reasonably durable in recent seasons, playing in over 150 games in 2013 and suffering zero injuries after his 2014 season got off to a late start. If you want to be optimistic, you can say that the late start was a blessing in disguise for his 31-year-old body.
But there is a limit to how much faith you can put into Morales' durability. He's headed toward his age-32 season, and everyone remembers how his broken leg in 2010 sidelined him for nearly two full years.
Value Outlook
Last winter, Morales' ties to draft-pick compensation all but killed the market for his services. This winter, his market will be limited by his poor 2014 performance. The best he'll probably be able to do is something like a one-year "prove it" deal for around $5 million.
Even an investment as small as that could still end up being a waste if Morales doesn't recover from his 2014 struggles. And since there are few real assurances that he will, it's hard to suggest him as a value buy.
Total
99. Nick Hundley, C, Free Agent
3 of 101
Talent Outlook
Nick Hundley hasn't had much luck being consistent since hitting .288 in 2011, batting just .216 with a .267 OBP in three seasons since. He's limited by an aggressive approach and too many whiffs, and he doesn't even profile as a good platoon catcher with a reverse split for his career.
Add in the reality that Hundley had a tough time controlling the running game in 2014, and he really only has a couple of things to offer. One is some power, and it's not for nothing that he showed some improvement at framing strikes in 2014.
Durability Outlook
Hundley has been reasonably healthy in playing in 197 games over the past two seasons. Before that, however, he had all sorts of injury problems in 2011 and 2012, missing time with an oblique strain and surgeries on his right elbow and knee.
This qualifies him as pretty beat up for a 31-year-old catcher. Even in what would more than likely be a part-time role in a short-term contract, he's no guarantee to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
The Baltimore Orioles declined a 2015 option that would have increased Hundley's salary from $4 million to $5 million. And rightfully so, as even paying him $4 million is a bit of a stretch.
And yet that's probably the target mark for the Orioles or some other team to aim for. With little offensive upside and modest defensive skills, Hundley wouldn't quite be a bargain buy.
Total
98. Alberto Callaspo, 2B/UTIL, Free Agent
4 of 101
Talent Outlook
After digging out a niche as a quietly solid player between 2009 and 2013, Alberto Callaspo managed only a .580 OPS while playing something of a part-time role with Oakland in 2014. On the surface, he has neither a good bat nor a good glove nor good speed to offer.
Which is mostly true, but not totally. Callaspo can offer an advanced approach that comes with an elite contact habit. He also offers defensive versatility, as he showed this past season that he can play second and first base in addition to third. In all, he's a solid player for a utility role.
Durability Outlook
Callaspo no longer needs to be durable enough to handle an everyday role. Which is good, because his injury history has seen him go on the disabled list with leg ailments in each of the last two seasons.
Even in a part-time role, Callaspo may not be done suffering injuries like that. He'll soon be 32 and has a decent amount of mileage on his body, with 843 games played since 2009.
Value Outlook
After the year he just had, Callaspo will be lucky if he's able to match his $4.875 million 2014 salary in a one-year deal. Something more like the $3 million pact that fellow utility man Kelly Johnson signed last winter is a better bet for his next contract.
Callaspo doesn't seem to have the skill set to turn an investment like that into a steal. But with his versatile glove and advanced plate approach, he could at least earn it.
Total
97. David Ross, C, Free Agent
5 of 101
Talent Outlook
After a rock-solid .770 OPS in 2012, David Ross has gone on to post a .681 OPS in 2013 and just a .629 OPS in 2014. Bat speed looks like it's becoming a real problem, as Ross is now easily beaten by anything over 90 miles per hour. Also, a bad swing-and-miss problem is only getting worse.
Problems like those may not get any better in what will be Ross' age-38 season in 2015, but his platoon split against left-handed pitching in the last two seasons says a strict platoon role could help. And even if there's nothing to be had from his bat, his excellent framing skills alone are worth investing in.
Durability Outlook
Though Ross has spent virtually his whole career as a part-time player, remaining durable hasn't been easy. Particularly in the past two seasons, as a pair of concussions sidelined him for a good portion of 2013 and he battled plantar fasciitis in 2014.
In light of both his recent injury history and his age, Ross' durability is a pretty big question mark.
Value Outlook
After making $3.1 million per year in a two-year deal with the Boston Red Sox, Ross could probably find a team willing to pay him that much money in a one-year contract if he decides he wants to play one more year.
Ross could more than earn an investment like that if he were stuck in a strict platoon role and continued to show off his elite receiving skills. But since him staying on the field is a question, him being worth even a small investment is no sure thing.
Total
96. Joba Chamberlain, RP, Free Agent
6 of 101
Talent Outlook
Joba Chamberlain seemed to be in the middle of a rebirth with the Detroit Tigers early on in 2014, but things fell apart when his ERA went from 2.63 in the first half to 4.97 in the second half. It was no fluke, as his walks went up, his strikeouts went down and he found himself allowing more hard contact.
Just as troubling is how Chamberlain's velocity fell from the 94-95 mph range to the 93-94 range. That leaves a lone bright side of his 2014 campaign: His reestablishment of his curveball next to his slider gave him two solid swing-and-miss breaking balls instead of one. That'll work for a silver lining.
Durability Outlook
Since he was able to avoid the disabled list for the first time since 2010, merely staying healthy was the real victory of Chamberlain's 2014 season.
Of course, that's the good news and the bad news. Chamberlain may still be relatively young at 29, but his track record suggests that one healthy year doesn't necessarily mean more are to come. That he's a bad-body pitcher who leans heavily on breaking stuff doesn't help.
Value Outlook
Chamberlain was able to get a $2.5 million contract from the Detroit Tigers as a mere reclamation project, so he should be able to do better this winter even despite his second-half collapse. It wouldn't be a surprise if he was able to get a two-year deal, perhaps for a total of $10 million-$12 million.
A deal like that would be banking on Chamberlain getting back to what he was in the first half of 2014. Based on his lesser velocity, iffy command and injury red flags, that's asking a lot.
Total
95. Andre Ethier, OF, Trade
7 of 101
Rumor Source: Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles
Talent Outlook
Andre Ethier is coming off the low point of his career. After he posted a solid .783 OPS in 2013, that number sunk to .691 in 2014. Also, he was essentially banished in the second half, starting in only 14 games and logging 93 plate appearances.
After a season like that, all Ethier has is his track record. A career .821 OPS makes it look strong, but he's a soon-to-be 33-year-old without a real home on defense and a severe weakness against left-handed pitching. And following a flat performance against righty hurlers in 2014, there's just not much there.
Durability Outlook
The best way to be optimistic about Ethier's 2014 season is that his body needed all that time off. He was pretty active in prior years, and it seemed to catch up with him when 2013 was marred by problems with his wheels.
All the same, Ethier's durability still invites skepticism. He's dealt with a lot of nagging injuries in recent seasons, and he's at an age (33 in 2015) when such things don't tend to go away. In light of the fact that his contract has three years left on it, the big picture isn't good.
Value Outlook
The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield is too crowded for a trade not to happen. And knowing that he was the odd man out in 2014 and that his contract ($56 million owed) is smaller than those of Matt Kemp ($97 million) and Carl Crawford ($62.3), Mark Saxon is probably right in thinking that Ethier is "the likeliest" of the Dodgers outfielders to be moved.
Saxon is also probably right in thinking that it would take the Dodgers eating a good chunk of the money Ethier is still owed while taking on spare parts for him to be dealt. In so many words: It's possible he can be had basically for free. That would mean a steal if Ethier turned back the clock and became an .800 OPS hitter again, but...yeah, not likely.
Total
94. Sergio Romo, RP, Free Agent
8 of 101
Talent Outlook
After an extremely rough first half, Sergio Romo looked more like himself in pitching to a 1.80 ERA after the break. Specifically, his trademark slider got back to getting whiffs and once again became borderline unhittable. And through all of it, he remained a very good control artist.
But Romo still comes with downsides. One is that his 2014 platoon splits suggest he's best off as a right-handed specialist. Another is that his "hard" stuff remained hittable even in his dominant second half. Given that he throws only 88 now with his age-32 season due up, there's nothing but downside there.
Durability Outlook
Romo has made over 60 appearances every year since 2010, and that's not counting the few extra appearances he's made in three separate postseasons. He's been more durable than his slight frame suggests he should be.
At the same time, Romo really hasn't been much for eating innings. He topped out at 62.0, and that was back in 2010. And even despite his track record, you can't help but worry about a slider-happy pitcher with a skinny frame breaking down in the near future.
Value Outlook
Here's thinking that no front office out there will be willing to buy into Romo's second half as proof that he can be a shutdown closer again. Nonetheless, it probably will end up earning him a multiyear deal. Something like two years and maybe as much as $12 million-$15 million, most likely.
If so, it's not guaranteed to be money well spent. Rather than a dominant late-inning reliever, the most realistic portrait of Romo these days is as a good guy to have against right-handed batters.
Total
93. J.P. Arencibia, C, Free Agent
9 of 101
Talent Outlook
J.P. Arencibia's reputation precedes him at this point, and there are plenty of numbers to back it up. He's a .189 hitter with just a .231 OBP over the past two seasons, and he's earned those figures by being a hugely undisciplined hitter with a swing-and-miss habit and an overly extreme fly-ball tendency.
Arencibia's also not much of a defensive catcher. But one silver lining there is that he's gotten better at framing strikes, and the silver lining with his bat will always be that he's at least a threat to hit the ball over the fence. He's not a good player, but Arencibia isn't without merits.
Durability Outlook
For all of the complaints that can be made about Arencibia's skills, he's at least been durable. The one and only disabled list stint of his career came in 2012 after he took a foul ball off his hand.
That Arencibia plays the most physically demanding position in the game is one reason for skepticism going forward. But in light of his clean injury history and the fact that he's headed for only his age-29 season, it's really the only reason for skepticism regarding his durability in the short-term.
Value Outlook
After earning $1.8 million through arbitration in 2014, it's a good question whether Arencibia can even make that much in free agency. He should catch on somewhere, but it wouldn't be surprising if he's unable to land a major league contract.
Arencibia's power and youth might work as reasons to argue for him as a good high-reward buy this winter. But with the kind of limitations he has, I'm not so sure about that.
Total
92. Kelly Johnson, 3B/UTIL, Free Agent
10 of 101
Talent Outlook
In suiting up for three different teams in 2014, Kelly Johnson didn't quite fulfill his platoon role in only managing a .653 against right-handed pitching. Beyond not hitting their slow stuff, he had a tough time swinging through high hard stuff against righties.
All the same, Johnson at least has some solid power to offer against right-handed pitching, and he's a good guy to have around for his defensive versatility. He mainly played third base this past season, but he also logged time at first and second and in left and right field. As such, he's a decent bench option.
Durability Outlook
When Johnson hit the disabled list with a groin strain in 2014, it was his first DL stint since 2009 and only the third of his career. That gives you an idea of how his injury history is cleaner than most, which is a good thing for a veteran player just looking to hang on in the big leagues.
Still, Johnson is a soon-to-be 33-year-old with a lot of mileage on him, and the versatility he'll be asked to provide will ensure his part-time role doesn't take it too easy on his body.
Value Outlook
It only took $3 million for the New York Yankees to sign Johnson when he was coming off of a .715 OPS and 16 homers with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2013. After the year he just had, it's possible he could be picked up for as little as $1 million.
Even then, Johnson outperforming such a measly contract would be no sure thing. But if he could once again provide versatility and a little power, that wouldn't be a bad price to pay to put him on the bench.
Total
91. Jason Grilli, RP, Free Agent
11 of 101
Talent Outlook
Jason Grilli's 2014 season was a disappointment, but he did end it on a strong note. After posting an ugly 4.87 ERA with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he managed a 3.48 ERA with the Los Angeles Angels. This was largely because his slider went back to being an out pitch, holding batters to a .146 average.
It's a concern, however, that Grilli's slider continued to be an inconsistent swing-and-miss pitch even while it was more effective at getting outs in Anaheim. He still has a solid fastball-slider mix, but it's going to be tough for him to repeat the results he got as an Angel if that pattern keeps up.
Durability Outlook
Grilli has managed 60 appearances in two of the last three seasons but hasn't hit the 60-inning plateau in any one of them. Injuries have held him back the last two seasons, with a forearm strain sidelining him for a month in 2013 and an oblique strain sidelining him for a month in 2014.
Add in the reality that Grilli is in his late 30s and still riding a hard fastball-slider combination, and the odds of him turning into a durable pitcher are pretty slim.
Value Outlook
Grilli rescued his stock with his strong turn as an Angel and should draw interest from teams looking for late-inning relief help as a result. Given his age and initial struggles in 2014, however, he might only be able to get a one-year deal with an option, with annual salaries likely no higher than $5 million.
Such a deal would be a steal if he reverted back to the pitcher he was in 2013 and would at least be worth it if he were to be the pitcher he was with the Angels. But since his performance in Anaheim was a little fluky and he comes with durability red flags, don't count on it.
Total
90. Rafael Soriano, RP, Free Agent
12 of 101
Talent Outlook
It was a tale of two seasons for Rafael Soriano in 2014, as he followed a 0.97 first-half ERA with a 6.48 second-half ERA. A lot of that was him simply not getting away with hard contact anymore, which was bound to happen given how much he pitches up in the zone with his diminished heat.
Still, I can't recommend a new approach for Soriano. Pitching up in the zone sets up his slider, which he used more often in 2014 and watched it get back to missing bats at its usual rate. As long as he has that pitch working, he has the goods to be close to an average reliever.
Durability Outlook
Soriano has logged at least 60 appearances and 60 innings in five out of six seasons since 2009, putting him on a short list of relievers who have managed to do so.
But while that bodes well for his durability, that he's a soon-to-be 35-year-old with past elbow issues who leans heavily on a slider does not. He's not as good a bet to remain durable as his track record suggests.
Value Outlook
Not surprisingly, the Washington Nationals chose not to pick up Soriano's $14 million option for 2015. And after his meltdown in the second half, the best he may be able to do on the open market is a two-year deal with an average annual salary worth half of what he could have made with his option.
And even that would be a stretch. Soriano's not as bad as he looked in the second half, but he only has the stuff to be a middle-innings reliever rather than an eighth-inning setup man or a closer.
Total
89. Luke Hochevar, RP, Free Agent
13 of 101
Talent Outlook
Tommy John surgery kept Luke Hochevar sidelined in 2014. Before that, he authored a dominant season in 2013 that featured a 1.92 ERA and a 4.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The trick was him benefiting from a velocity increase and turning into a fastball-heavy pitcher with a truly outstanding cutter.
Of course, there is the question of whether Hochevar will go back to airing it out in his return from Tommy John in 2015. There's also the likelihood of his command being rusty. As such, expectations should be tempered.
Durability Outlook
Since Hochevar underwent his Tommy John operation in the middle of last March, there's a chance he'll be ready to pitch sometime in late April or early May of 2015.
Such is the best-case scenario, anyway. But knowing that it could take time for him to get into pitching shape, he may be along later in the season. Also, it's worth noting that a previous elbow issue sidelined him for half of 2010. Trusting his elbow to behave is not easy. Or advised.
Value Outlook
In a recent bit at GammonsDaily.com, Peter Gammons wrote there's at least one general manager who expects Hochevar to be "a big item" on the open market. That's no surprise given he was basically a Wade Davis prototype in 2013, and it could mean he makes out like Joakim Soria a couple winters ago by snagging a two-year deal worth around $10 million.
A deal like that would be justified based on Hochevar's upside. But given that his upside can't be considered a sure thing at this point in his recovery, it would still be a roll of the dice.
Total
88. A.J. Pierzynski, C, Free Agent
14 of 101
Talent Outlook
A.J. Pierzynski has been a solid offensive catcher for a long time, but he's coming off of his worst offensive season. He hit .251 with only a .625 OPS in 2014, combining a severe power outage with his usual overly aggressive approach at the plate. He also continued to be a mediocre defensive presence.
Going forward, Pierzynski's best hope for a rebound is a more strict platoon role against right-handed pitching, which he hit reasonably well in 2014. Even if that's what he ends up with, asking for better defense and a power rebound in what will be his age-38 season is asking a lot.
Durability Outlook
Pierzynski's a 37-year-old catcher who has played in over 1,800 games across a 17-year career. By all rights, his body should be an utter mess by now.
But it's not. Pierzynski has only been on the disabled list twice, and he hasn't had to have anything surgically repaired during his major league career. Though none of this guarantees that he could remain healthy in a short-term deal, it's encouraging all the same.
Value Outlook
Pierzynski got $8.25 million in a one-year deal last winter when he was coming off of a .722 OPS. After the year he just had, he'll be lucky if he can find even half that much money in a one-year deal for 2015.
He could thus prove to be a value buy if he were to get back to hitting like he did in 2013. More likely, the best he can be is a passable option against right-handed pitching with subpar defense on the side.
Total
87. Geovany Soto, C, Free Agent
15 of 101
Talent Outlook
Geovany Soto hasn't been able to stay on the field that much in the past two years, and he's coming off of just a 24-game 2014 season that featured a .665 OPS. The big concern with his bat at this point is that he's pretty much overmatched against anything slow, which is an easy scouting report for pitchers.
But Soto does offer attractive talents. He has a terrific eye at the plate and can still handle fastballs, and his career platoon split says he's a good fit for a set role against left-handed pitching. Defensively, he's handy controlling the running game and a good receiver. These things make him worthy of a bench role.
Durability Outlook
Injuries have played a part in limiting Soto to just 78 games over the past two seasons, and overall, his injury history includes surgeries on both knees and on his right (throwing) shoulder.
In short, he's about as banged up as you'd expect a soon-to-be 32-year-old catcher to be. Keeping him confined to a part-time role could keep him healthy going forward, but there's likely only so much a team can do to keep the injury bug at bay.
Value Outlook
Soto was paid only $3.05 million in 2014, and it's hard to argue that he raised his stock by playing in just 24 games and not really doing anything of note. If he lands another one-year contract, merely matching his 2014 salary might be the best-case scenario.
Soto's health would ultimately determine whether teams could justify even an investment as small as that. But if he were to play in even as little as half as many games as he did in 2014, he has enough talents to do the job.
Total
86. Ike Davis, 1B, Trade
16 of 101
Rumor Source: Andy Martino of the New York Daily News
Talent Outlook
Ike Davis is strictly a platoon player at this point, and his .360 OBP and 11 dingers against right-handed pitching in 2014 show how well he can handle the job. He certainly has the goods for it, as he combines a highly discerning eye at the dish with good power.
And yet, Davis does have his limitations. He's an obvious shift candidate with his ground-ball habit, his power is nowhere near as explosive as it once was and he's a subpar defender at first to boot. He may be only 27, but his skills have eroded to a point where he's best off as a platoon DH.
Durability Outlook
Taking on Davis in a trade would mean taking on the final two years of club control he has left, so his durability prospects are of a slightly heightened importance. And to this end, that he's still young and coming off of an injury-free season is good news.
But Davis doesn't have a perfect injury history. An oblique strain cost him the final month of 2013, and an ankle sprain sidelined him for almost all of 2011. Then there was his odd bout with illness in 2012. Whoever trades for him would have to prepare for anything.
Value Outlook
When the New York Mets traded Davis to the Pittsburgh Pirates, all they got was a player to be named later and a Triple-A reliever. He improved in Pittsburgh, but not to a degree where the Pirates would be able to demand much more than that in a trade.
Davis could therefore be had in what would be a low-risk trade. Provided he's kept in a platoon role, it wouldn't take much for him to justify such a deal.
Total
85. Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Free Agent
17 of 101
Talent Outlook
Francisco Rodriguez followed a solid 2.70 ERA in 2013 with a 3.04 ERA in 2014. His 4.1 K/BB is indicative of how his command was sharper, while his curveball and changeup remained strong swing-and-miss pitches. That he gave up 14 homers, though, is indicative of how his stuff leaves him with a small margin for error.
That's probably not changing. K-Rod's heat declined from 91-92 the prior two seasons to 90-91 in 2014. Not surprisingly, that's where the bulk of the dingers he allowed came from. His curve and changeup are good enough to keep him reasonably effective, but he just can't make mistakes anymore.
Durability Outlook
That K-Rod isn't even 33 yet might come as a surprise, as he is indeed a guy who's been around for a long time. His workload reflects that, as no other reliever has pitched as many innings as he has since he broke into the league in 2002. He's had aches and pains along the way, but nothing too major.
Still, that many innings on a guy who's heading toward his age-33 season counts as a red flag. That Rodriguez is still using a high-effort delivery is another. His track record deserves some respect, but him remaining so durable is best considered a tossup.
Value Outlook
After saving 44 games in 2014, conventional wisdom suggests K-Rod is in line for a big payday in free agency. But since teams are now too smart to be that dumb, it's more likely that his homer-proneness will force him to settle for a modest raise from his $3.25 million 2014 salary in a one-year deal. Say, something like $6 million to $7 million.
If so, well, it's debatable that he was worth that much even while saving 44 games this past season. It's hard to imagine that changing with a higher salary.
Total
84. Delmon Young, OF/DH, Free Agent
18 of 101
Talent Outlook
After OPS'ing just .705 between 2011 and 2013, Delmon Young enjoyed a renaissance with a .302 average and .779 OPS in 2014. He didn't need a platoon split to make it happen. He just always found the holes in the defense, particularly in pinch-hitting situations, going 10-for-20.
Can Young do it again? That's doubtful. He didn't stop being a swing-at-everything hitter with a whiff habit, and his .359 average on balls in play is too good to be true. He should be viewed as at best a league-average hitter with zero potential for baserunning or defensive value.
Durability Outlook
With Young's days as an everyday player presumably over, his durability is less of a priority. Factor in the reality that he's much more of a designated hitter than an outfielder, and it's even less of a priority.
But for what it's worth, Young's durability outlook is pretty good. He's still only 29 years old and hasn't shown any ill effects from right ankle surgery in late 2012. He also helped himself by getting in good shape for 2014. If he keeps that up, he'll be fine in a short-term deal.
Value Outlook
The Baltimore Orioles only paid Young a $1 million salary in 2014. After teasing a return to form last season, he should be able to do better than that in free agency this winter.
But not a lot better, as clubs aren't going to be in much of a rush to sign a part-time hitter with no speed and a bad glove. He might get $3 million or $4 million. Another year like 2014 would make that money well spent, but him producing another season like 2014 isn't likely.
Total
83. Aaron Hill, 2B, Trade
19 of 101
Rumor Source: Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
After posting an .860 OPS from 2012 to 2013, Aaron Hill managed only a .654 OPS and 10 homers in 2014. This happened while he played typically shoddy defense at second base, making him look like a guy who's clearly declining as he heads toward his age-33 season in 2015.
It's not all bad, though. Hill never looked quite right at the plate, but he still managed a career-best line-drive rate and continued to pepper left field with well-hit balls. There's not much to be done about his defense, but his bat is a solid bet to be better than downright putrid going forward.
Durability Outlook
Hill has been limited to 220 games over the last two seasons, and overall, he has played 140-plus games just once in the last five years. He's had problems with his legs here and there, and hand injuries have kept him out of action in the last two campaigns.
At his age, Hill's probably not going to get any healthier, especially if he sticks as a regular at second base, a position that's known to take a toll on players. A team banking on him to be durable in the next two years of his contract isn't the best idea.
Value Outlook
If the Arizona Diamondbacks choose to dangle Hill instead of one of their young middle infielders, they'll find his market limited by his poor 2014 and the $24 million he's owed through 2015 and 2016. Only if they eat some of that will they get something worthwhile (e.g., young pitching) in return.
Either way, it's hard to imagine Hill coming cheap. A team is going to either have to give up something real to get him or take on his remaining contract. And while he's a good candidate for a rebound after 2014, he's not that good of a candidate.
Total
82. Edwin Jackson, SP, Trade
20 of 101
Rumor Source: Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com
Talent Outlook
It doesn't get much worse than the 6.33 ERA Edwin Jackson posted in 2014, and it's hard to call it a fluke. He posted 4.0 walks per nine innings, struggled with home runs and watched his average velocity continue to slowly descend.
Jackson's lack of command and dwindling velocity are real concerns, as these are things you sort of need if you're going to be a fastball-slider pitcher. But since his slider is still an outstanding swing-and-miss pitch, he offers at least one reason for teams to target him as a reclamation project.
Durability Outlook
Jackson may only be 31, but he's been around for a long time. He broke into the big leagues on his 20th birthday in 2003 and has pitched over 1,600 innings between the regular season and postseason.
And now you wonder if it's beginning to take its toll, as Jackson's 2014 season was marred by a shoulder injury that sidelined him for a month. That it required his first disabled list stint since 2004 is the good news, but it's something to be wary of with two more years remaining on his contract.
Value Outlook
Jackson is coming off a brutal season, and he has two years and $22 million still remaining on his contract. This means the Chicago Cubs won't have much leverage in trade talks, with the most likely scenario being them eating a chunk of his contract and taking on some low-level prospects.
In other words, Jackson can probably be had for next to nothing. That would be a fine way to take on a guy who, despite the red flags, has his merits as a reclamation project.
Total
81. David Freese, 3B, Trade
21 of 101
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
David Freese followed a modest .721 OPS in 2013 with a .704 OPS in his first season with the Los Angeles Angels. But he did finish stronger than he started, posting a .743 OPS in the second half that came largely thanks to an increase in power.
And yet, the red flags remain. Freese's descending average against 90-plus heat and ascending whiff rate against off-speed suggest his bat may be slowing down with his age-32 season due up. That would be an easier pill to swallow if his defense looked good, but it's mediocre at best.
Durability Outlook
After playing in a career-high 144 games in 2012, Freese played in 138 in 2013 and 134 in 2014. A broken finger did the bulk of the damage this past season, but he otherwise suffered through a typical assortment of nagging injuries.
And now Freese is at an age when health issues tend to become more persistent instead of less frequent. Though there are players with more red flags than him, he's not an especially good bet to remain durable.
Value Outlook
According to Ken Rosenthal's report, the Angels will most likely ask for pitching in return if they dangle Freese. Since he only has one year of club control left and is at best an average regular now, they may have to settle for a back-end or reclamation-type arm.
That's not exactly the baseball equivalent of an arm and a leg. But with Freese's iffy skill set, merely justifying a trade like that represents the best of what he could do.
Total
80. Brett Anderson, SP, Free Agent
22 of 101
Talent Outlook
Brett Anderson was pretty good when he was healthy in 2014, shrugging off the thin air of Coors Field to post a 2.91 ERA. That's what you can do when you're as good at getting ground balls as he is, and he's good at it because he has a number of pitches that can do the job.
The downside is that Anderson's average velocity dipped below 90 miles per hour for the first time, and his well-below-par 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings left a lot to chance. There should be more hope for these things based on the fact that Anderson is only 26, but...yeah, about that...
Durability Outlook
Anderson's one and only 30-start season came in his rookie year in 2009. Since then, he's been slowed by Tommy John surgery, a stress fracture in his foot and, most recently, finger and back surgery.
At this point, it's become virtually impossible to count on Anderson to stay healthy for a full season. There's really nothing else to say and no other way to put it.
Value Outlook
The Colorado Rockies surprised nobody when they rejected Anderson's $12 million option for 2015. And as a free agent, he's likely only in line for a one-year "prove it" deal that, if he's lucky, will pay him half of what his option would have paid him.
A deal like that would be justified on the basis that Anderson's ground-ball style would produce serious results if he stayed healthy. But given the sheer unlikelihood of that, it would still be a gamble.
Total
79. Gavin Floyd, SP, Free Agent
23 of 101
Talent Outlook
Gavin Floyd hasn't done a whole lot of pitching in the last two seasons, but he did pitch to a 2.65 ERA when he was healthy in 2014. He was particularly effective at missing bats, which was in large part thanks to his curveball and slider/cutter. Both were exceptional swing-and-miss pitches.
Small sample size and all, but there may be something to that. Health problems aside, the whiff-per-swing rates on Floyd's two breakers have been trending up ever since 2011. And though he's had a lot of injuries and is about to turn 32, it's a good look that he hasn't quit hitting 91-92 with his heat.
Durability Outlook
This is where things get ugly. Floyd has made only 14 starts over the last two seasons, and he has his elbow to thank for that. Tommy John surgery sidelined him for most of 2013, and then his elbow just flat-out broke throwing a pitch in 2014.
Floyd is worth taking a chance on based on the high-ceiling returns of his breaking stuff. But whoever signs him will know full well that his health just may not cooperate.
Value Outlook
After what he's gone through the last two seasons, it wouldn't be a shocker if Floyd had to settle for a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. If not, you have to imagine the best he can do is something like a $5 million salary for one year.
That's essentially a throw-away salary by today's standards, and Floyd could definitely surpass expectations if he were to stay healthy. It's just too bad that's a pretty big if.
Total
78. Jake Peavy, SP, Free Agent
24 of 101
Talent Outlook
Jake Peavy went from a 4.72 ERA with the Boston Red Sox to a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts with the San Francisco Giants. He made some changes to earn that success, most notably simplifying things to a fastball/cutter approach and simply throwing more strikes.
The Peavy you watched struggle through the postseason, however, wasn't exactly a misleading representation. His stuff isn't nearly as electric as it used to be, and his ability to locate it comes and goes. He's much more of a back-end starter with less upside than that 2.17 ERA suggests.
Durability Outlook
More so than the turnaround with San Francisco, the big victory for Peavy in 2014 was staying healthy. He was able to make 32 starts and log over 200 innings for just the second time since 2007.
The odds of Peavy doing that again, however, can't be considered good. It's been several years since his last major arm injury, but he's still a 33-year-old with a laundry list of past health problems and close to 2,200 big league innings on his arm. That's not a guy who's a good bet to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
Some teams will surely be wary of Peavy's 2.17 ERA in San Francisco and his durability outlook, but he should still be able to find a Tim Hudson-like deal for two years and around $20 million-$22 million.
The only way Peavy can earn money like that is by staying in the National League and staying healthy. Even if he does, it's hard to imagine him surpassing expectations.
Total
77. Dillon Gee, SP, Trade
25 of 101
Rumor Source: Joel Sherman of the New York Post
Talent Outlook
After posting a respectable 3.62 ERA in 2013, Dillon Gee came back down to earth to post a 4.00 ERA in 2014. That's a pretty accurate reflection of his talent level. He has a diverse mix of pitches that he uses to keep hitters guessing, but he's neither overpowering nor a particularly talented command artist.
The bright side, such as it is, is that there aren't any indications Gee's stuff is going to get any worse. He averages under 90 with his heat, but his velocity has been stable the last two years and he's still only 28 years old. As such, he should at least remain a starter at the back end of a rotation.
Durability Outlook
On either side of his 32-start season in 2013 are a 17-start season in 2012 and a 22-start season in 2014. Shoulder problems did the trick both seasons, and it's worth noting that Gee also experienced some elbow issues in his otherwise durable 2013 season.
This means Gee comes with much more injury risk than you'd expect from a 28-year-old with only 639.2 big league innings on his arm. And since he's under contract through 2016, whoever trades for him would have to deal with this risk for two seasons.
Value Outlook
The offensively challenged New York Mets will presumably only deal Gee for a bat. That he has two years of club control will give them some leverage in talks, but their options will still be limited based on Gee's talent level. Rather than a star or hot young player, think something along the lines of a platoon bat.
Gee could justify a trade like that if he stays healthy, but that's not entirely likely. And even if he did stay healthy, it's certainly hard to imagine him surpassing expectations.
Total
76. Stephen Drew, SS, Free Agent
26 of 101
Talent Outlook
Stephen Drew followed a strong overall 2013 season with a disastrous 2014, hitting just .162 with a .536 OPS after getting a late start due a drawn-out free agency period. He just never seemed in tune, swinging more aggressively than usual and struggling to find hits outside of the middle of the zone.
Drew is old enough to a point (32 in March) where you can't help but worry, but he still has merits. His defense at short remained strong for a second straight year in 2014, and he still showed off a fly-ball approach that produced some power. These things are worth betting on in a short deal.
Durability Outlook
It's been four seasons since Drew last played in over 150 games in 2010. A brutal ankle injury sidelined him for most of 2011 and 2012, and he fought some injury issues in 2013 before starting late in 2014.
The optimistic view is that Drew's late start in 2014 at least helped preserve his 31-year-old body. But even if that's true, it's hard to bet on him being durable going forward. He's past 30 with an iffy injury history and has spent his whole career at a physically demanding position.
Value Outlook
After the year he just had, it's doubtful that Drew will be able to get either a multiyear deal or a one-year deal at the $10 million salary he made in 2014. The best he can probably do is a one-year deal at around $7 million to $8 million.
That will be wasted money if Drew doesn't recover from his 2014 struggles. But since it's hard to imagine him being that bad again, that money would likely buy a decent offensive shortstop with a good glove.
Total
75. Billy Butler, DH/1B, Free Agent
27 of 101
Talent Outlook
Since posting a career-best .882 OPS in 2012, Billy Butler has disappointed with a .787 OPS in 2013 and a career-worst .702 OPS in 2014. His biggest malady is declining power, but it's also not a good look that a more free-swinging approach in response to more aggressive pitchers didn't produce results in 2014.
Pitchers presumably aren't going to stop going after Butler until his power returns, and it's not a safe bet that it will. He's too much of a ground-ball hitter, and pulled balls in the air are becoming more infrequent. He's become a designated hitter who has, at best, an average bat to offer.
Durability Outlook
Butler's been a full-time DH since 2010, so his body is more well preserved than most free-agent position players. And at 28, he's also younger than most free-agent position players.
On top of all of this, he's played at least 150 games every year since 2009, and his next trip to the disabled list will be his first. That makes Butler's body type the only real concern about his durability going forward, but it's a minor concern in light of everything else.
Value Outlook
The Kansas City Royals turned down a $12.5 million option to make Butler a free agent. And since there may not be much interest in Butler outside of Kansas City, the Royals might be able to bring him back on a multiyear deal at a cheap price. Say, two years for $15 million with an option.
That would be a steal if Butler were to rediscover his power. But there's no guarantee of that regardless of where he ends up, so he's a good bet to be overpaid no matter what.
Total
74. Brandon Morrow, SP, Free Agent
28 of 101
Talent Outlook
After teasing a breakout with a 2.96 ERA in 2012, Brandon Morrow has fallen off to produce a 5.65 ERA over just 23 big league appearances since then. Injuries have done the bulk of the damage, but Morrow also reverted to his old bad habits with a 4.9 BB/9 rate in 2014.
Harnessing Morrow's command will be a challenge for whoever picks him up, but his stuff is worth an upside play. He's continued to show good velocity when he's been healthy the last two seasons, and he has two legit swing-and-miss pitches in his slider and splitter. That's one more than most pitchers have.
Durability Outlook
Here's the real issue with Morrow: He's been hurt an awful lot over the last two seasons. In particular, he's battled a bad oblique, a bad forearm and a bad finger. Those last two injuries were bad enough to force him to the 60-day disabled list.
Then there's the reality that Morrow's career high for innings is just 179.1. If he's picked up as a starter, his new team needs to be careful not to set its expectations for his workload too high.
Value Outlook
Because the Toronto Blue Jays declined Morrow's $10 million option for 2015, he's now a free agent who likely won't get money like that on the open market. Something more like a one-year deal for $5 million and incentives is in play.
That would be your basic low-risk, high-reward contract. Control and durability concerns be damned, Morrow's fantastic pure stuff would make a deal like that a savvy upside play.
Total
73. Josh Willingham, OF, Free Agent
29 of 101
Talent Outlook
Josh Willingham has had a couple rough years in a row after OPS'ing .890 with 35 dingers in 2012, as he has just a .724 OPS with 28 homers over the last two seasons. Beyond being limited by health, he's a poor defender whose offensive ceiling only goes so high thanks to an average-suppressing fly-ball habit.
Willingham's offensive floor, however, is still worthy of respect. His extremely keen eye ensures that he draws plenty of on-base percentage-inflating walks, and his fly-ball habit does make sure the power keeps coming at a solid rate. With tendencies like these, he's at least worth a look as a regular DH.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 145 games in 2012, Willingham has been limited to just 203 contests over the last two seasons. A left wrist injury sidelined him for a good chunk of 2013, and his significant left knee injury that season was his second in four years.
Add in that Willingham is ticketed for his age-36 season, and no, he's not a sure thing to stay on the field. Even if he's granted a full-time spot at DH, his aging body has simply taken too much damage.
Value Outlook
In light of his age and his two straight injury-marred seasons, Willingham probably won't be able to find anyone willing to top his $7 million 2014 salary in what would presumably be a one-year contract for 2015. The best he might be able to do is a $5 million or $6 million deal with incentives.
If that proved to be good enough to keep him from retiring, it has the potential to be a solid deal. Even if he can't play a full season, Willingham could offer enough power and on-base ability to earn such a measly commitment.
Total
72. Mark Reynolds, 1B, Free Agent
30 of 101
Talent Outlook
Mark Reynolds posted the worst average (.196) and OPS (.681) of his career in 2014. That's what you risk when you continue to strike out a ton while asking for a low average on balls in play with an elevated fly-ball rate.
Reynolds has had these shortcomings his whole career. They're not going away now. But if all you want is some 20-homer power from the right side of the dish to go along with some quietly pretty good defense at first base, well, he's your Huckleberry.
Durability Outlook
That Reynolds hasn't played in more than 135 games since 2011 makes it look like he's wearing down as he prepares to go deeper into his 30s, but his workload hasn't been limited by a lack of durability. With only one disabled list stint in his career, it's more due to a lack of ability.
Beyond that, there's the fact that Reynolds doesn't play a physically demanding position. And the fact that he so rarely has to actually run the bases. Compared to most guys on the wrong side of 30, durability doesn't look like a clear issue with him.
Value Outlook
After signing a one-year, $2 million contract and playing reasonably well for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2014, you can expect Reynolds to be on the lookout for a pay raise. He might find one, but it will probably only be to the tune of $5 million or so in another one-year deal.
Reynolds' shaky skill set could make even a deal like that out to be an overpay. But given that he can at least stay on the field while providing power and solid defense, he could justify it well enough.
Total
71. A.J. Burnett, SP, Free Agent
31 of 101
Talent Outlook
After two quietly excellent seasons in Pittsburgh, A.J. Burnett went to Philadelphia and recorded a 4.59 ERA. It was largely a case of him reverting to his bad self, as he posted a 4.0 BB/9 and had issues with home runs. Also, it didn't help that his velocity dipped.
And that is something to worry about. Despite throwing his sinker more than ever, its reduced velocity had a hand in it not getting ground balls as consistently. That makes his only saving grace his curveball, which is fortunately still superb enough to keep him a viable option for a back end of a rotation.
Durability Outlook
Burnett has pitched at least 180 innings in seven straight seasons dating back to 2008. And though he's had some injuries along the way, his shoulder and arm haven't bothered him as much as they used to.
Still, this is a soon-to-be 38-year-old pitcher with over 2,600 big league innings on his arm, and one who may not be doing his arm any favors by throwing so many curveballs. Even in a one-year contract, Burnett would come with some injury risk.
Value Outlook
Burnett and the Philadelphia Phillies have already nixed his $15 million mutual option for 2015. If he opts not to activate his $12.75 million player option, it will either be to retire or so he can try to get similar money from a team with a chance to contend in 2015.
More likely, Burnett would have to sign for a discounted rate. Something like $10 million, perhaps. And even that would be an iffy deal for his new club, as Burnett is more about downside than upside now.
Total
70. Jed Lowrie, SS, Free Agent
32 of 101
Talent Outlook
After managing a .791 OPS in 2013, Jed Lowrie regressed to post just a .676 OPS in 2014. That he was largely unproductive against good heat didn't help, which is a red flag with his age-31 season due up. And with poor range and subpar arm strength, he's really not a good fit for shortstop.
Hypothetically, that's an issue that could be resolved by moving Lowrie to second base. And for all his struggles in 2014, he maintained a strong batting eye and continued to elevate the ball frequently enough to hit for good power. As such, Lowrie is not without upside even after a rough 2014.
Durability Outlook
Lowrie was able to play in over 135 games in each of his two years in Oakland, but his reputation as an injury-prone player precedes him due to the assorted maladies he experienced in his first five seasons.
And indeed, Lowrie was hardly 100 percent healthy in Oakland either—particularly in 2014, when he spent some time on the disabled list with a bad finger in addition to dealing with assorted nagging injuries. At Lowrie's age, it's easy to be skeptical as to whether the injury bug will leave him alone.
Value Outlook
Even coming off a down season, Lowrie should do well this winter. With Jhonny Peralta and J.J. Hardy's contracts having recently set the market price for above-average shortstops at around $13 million per year, an average-ish shortstop like Lowrie might get $10 million to $11 million in a three-year deal.
It's not hard for a good-hitting shortstop to earn that kind of money. But considering the red flags on Lowrie's bat, his questionable durability outlook and the fact that he's not a good fit for short, a contract like that would be asking for more than he probably has to give.
Total
69. Emilio Bonifacio, OF/UTIL, Free Agent
33 of 101
Talent Outlook
Emilio Bonifacio was a man afire in the first few weeks of 2014, but then he cooled off to hit .228 with a .600 OPS over his last 75 games. With a .633 OPS between 2012 and 2013, Bonifacio turning into a capable hitter at age 30 in 2015 just isn't going to happen.
That leaves speed and defense as Bonifacio's main selling points, and both are in reasonably good shape. He's lost a step, but he still managed to steal 26 bases in 110 games in 2014. And while he's not really a good defender anywhere, he can play at least passable defense at several different positions.
Durability Outlook
After appearing in 152 games in 2011, Bonifacio has averaged just 103 games in three seasons since. Injuries put a dent in his playing time in 2012 and 2014, putting him on the DL four times with thumb, knee and abdomen injuries.
Still, Bonifacio is hardly ancient. And compared to a lot of active speedsters at his age, his legs have been relatively well preserved by sporadic playing time throughout his career. His durability isn't without warning signs, but it's not too big of a concern.
Value Outlook
A switch-hitting speedster with a versatile glove? Sounds a bit like Chone Figgins, but it's more likely that fellow speedster Rajai Davis' two-year, $10 million contract from last winter will have a hand in determining Bonifacio's next deal. In fact, something very much like that is a solid guess.
All Bonifacio would have to do to be worth it is stay on the field. Since there's a solid chance he will, his speed and versatile defense would help make up for his subpar bat to make an investment in him feasible.
Total
68. Mike Morse, 1B/OF, Free Agent
34 of 101
Talent Outlook
After a disappointing 2013 season, Mike Morse bounced back to post an .811 OPS with 16 homers in 2014. He was still the same hyper-aggressive hitter he's always been, but the past season was a reminder that good contact comes easily from his brute strength. In turn, his numbers are easily inflated.
It wasn't all good, though. Morse's play in left field went to show why he should only play first base, and the disappearance of his power after the break is related to how he doesn't get the ball in the air consistently enough to maximize his power. Overall, there's only so much he can offer.
Durability Outlook
It says a lot about Morse's track record that he could be limited to 131 games in 2014 and still achieve the second-biggest workload of his career. For the most part, he just hasn't stayed healthy.
Of course, the injury bug did end up getting Morse in 2014. He was healthy through August, but then he suffered an oblique injury that sidelined him in September. With his age-33 season due up, his recent and overall injury history don't inspire much confidence.
Value Outlook
Morse received $6 million last winter despite coming off of a lost season in Seattle and Baltimore. Coming off of a strong bounce-back season, a good bet is that he'll land a two-year deal for around $20 million.
The idea behind a contract like that would be to pay for Morse's right-handed power, something that's in short supply these days. But knowing that he only has so much in-game power to go with a poor approach and (at best) questionable defensive, it's going to be an overpay.
Total
67. Burke Badenhop, RP, Free Agent
35 of 101
Talent Outlook
A reliable reliever before he arrived in Boston, Burke Badenhop quietly posted a dominant 2.29 ERA across 70 appearances with the Red Sox in 2014. He wasn't actually that good, mind you, but his career-best ground-ball rate did mean an abundance of soft contact and career-high 14 double plays.
To this end, his performance may actually be sustainable. Badenhop's sinker isn't getting any worse at picking up ground balls, and going with a more even mix between his slider and changeup also aided his quest for ground balls. That he can already do all this without plus velocity is a good sign going forward.
Durability Outlook
Badenhop is one of the top relief workhorses of the last five seasons, racking up more innings pitched than all but eight other relievers. To boot, his last disabled list stint happened back in 2009, and he hasn't had any injuries since 2011.
Since Badenhop will be 32 in 2015, there is the question of whether his workload will catch up to him eventually. But since he has a clean injury history and a low-effort throwing motion, it's a relatively minor concern.
Value Outlook
As a reasonably young right-handed ground-ball specialist, it's possible Badenhop will follow Brandon League and Joe Smith and find a three-year deal on the open market. A safer bet, however, is more like a two-year deal with an option at around $5-6 million per year.
It would seem like a lot for a guy who doesn't fit the bill as a late-inning reliever, and Badenhop would definitely have to keep getting ground balls to earn it. The likelihood of him continuing to do so, however, is reasonably strong.
Total
66. Didi Gregorius, SS, Trade
36 of 101
Rumor Source: Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic
Talent Outlook
After ending his rookie season in 2013 in a bad slump, Didi Gregorius didn't improve in 2014. He hit just .226 with a .653 OPS, showing off only modest patience and contact and hitting more fly balls than he should be with his limited power.
That Gregorius isn't even 25 yet means there is some hope for his bat, but not much. The bigger attraction on the trade market will be his defense. The advanced metrics aren't crazy about it, but the eye test says he has good range and a plus arm. Those are things worth investing in.
Durability Outlook
A trade for Gregorius would mean dealing for him and the four years of club control he has left, so a big priority for him would be to remain durable. Fortunately, there's not much to be worried about.
Beyond still being very young, Gregorius doesn't bear many red flags. He hasn't shown any ill effects from an elbow injury he had during spring training in 2013 and has been largely healthy ever since. The only thing you really worry about is his body being beat up by the shortstop position.
Value Outlook
Nick Piecoro's column on Arizona's trade assets suggests that the Diamondbacks would most likely demand starting pitching in exchange for Gregorius. If so, they could probably find a team willing to swap a young starter with upside in order to bring Gregorius' upside aboard.
That could end up being a fair deal for both sides if Gregorius were to at least live up to his defensive potential. It would be tough to appreciate without good hitting, but there's plenty of value in having a plus defender at short year after year.
Total
65. Ryan Vogelsong, SP, Free Agent
37 of 101
Talent Outlook
After an injury-marred 2013 that included a 5.73 ERA, Ryan Vogelsong rebounded to pitch to a 4.00 ERA in 2014. He was helped by more whiffs across the board that boosted his strikeout rate. Not so coincidentally, his velocity also got a boost. And as per usual, he lived mainly on the edges of the zone.
Trouble is, Vogelsong may not have a suitable home away from AT&T Park. He's been significantly better pitching there in his time with the San Francisco Giants, and that's no surprise knowing that batted balls off him are mostly in the air. Take that big outfield away from him, and he's not much to behold.
Durability Outlook
At 37 years old, Vogelsong is definitely up there in age. But between his time in the majors and Japan, you might be surprised to hear he only has about 1,200 professional innings on his arm.
And if you take away the fluky broken finger he sustained on a hit-by-pitch last season, really the only thing of note on his medical track record is a Tommy John operation he had all the way back in 2002. This is encouraging stuff for any veteran pitcher, especially one who's only in line for a short-term deal.
Value Outlook
Whether it's with the Giants or somebody else, Vogelsong will probably only find one-year contract offers this winter. A good bet for a salary away from San Francisco would be around $5 million, but the Giants could be willing to bring him back for $7 million or so.
Either way, we're talking a very low-risk deal for a relatively low-risk starter. Provided the outfield is big enough wherever he ends up, he stands to be a solid value buy this winter.
Total
64. Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Trade
38 of 101
Rumor Source: Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic
Talent Outlook
Mark Trumbo's first season in Arizona didn't go so well. Beyond his injury difficulties, he managed just a .707 OPS while playing downright horrible defense in left field. There's no fixing that, and he's likely to always have a swing-and-miss approach with an infrequent line-drive habit.
Trumbo doesn't profile as poorly on defense as a full-time first baseman, however. That's presumably where interested parties will see him playing, and they'll also be interested in Trumbo's thunderous power. And with only his age-29 season due up, age is not yet a threat to that power.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 159 games in 2013, Trumbo was limited to just 88 contests in 2014. A stress fracture in his left foot sidelined him for two months, and you wonder if playing him in the outfield had a hand in him developing the injury.
Either that, or Trumbo is prone to such injuries. Though not as severe, he suffered a stress fracture in his right foot back in 2011. So even though he has youth on his side, Trumbo's next two years of club control do come with some injury risk.
Value Outlook
If the Diamondbacks dangle Trumbo on the trade market, there's no way they're getting back what they gave up (Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton) to get him. Even with his power and the two years of club control he has left, the best the D-Backs can probably do for Trumbo is a No. 4-type starter.
In other words, he'll be a good buy-low candidate if the D-Backs put him on the market. He has his shortcomings, but getting two years of his power could more than justify a trade.
Total
63. Chris Young, SP, Free Agent
39 of 101
Talent Outlook
After going AWOL from the majors in 2013, Chris Young re-emerged to post a 3.65 ERA with the Seattle Mariners in 2014. He stuck to his custom of living dangerously with a small strikeout-to-walk ratio and lots of fly balls, but pitching up in the zone with his rising four-seamer ensured many of those were weak fly balls.
Young's prospects going forward should look bleak. But they don't. The rise on his four-seamer makes up for its well below subpar velocity, and FanGraphs' Eno Sarris can vouch that Young's aim-high style is a unique asset in aim-low times. Provided he has a big enough ballpark, he can continue to be effective.
Durability Outlook
In starting 29 games in 2014, Young took on by far his biggest workload since starting 30 games all the way back in 2007. That's what bad shoulder injuries can do to you, and Young's had some of those.
The last really bad one was back in 2011, so that's the good news. How his shoulder will respond to his biggest workload in seven years, however, could end up being the bad news. And even if it's not, well, it's just plain hard to trust a 35-year-old who's never been a good bet for six innings per start anyway.
Value Outlook
With his track record, you can rest assured nobody's going to rush to give Young a multiyear deal. The league could also be skeptical of him away from Safeco Field, so he should end up being a cheap option on a one-year contract. Something like $5 million to $7 million, perhaps.
If he can't stay healthy, that would be no big loss. If he can, odds are he would be a steal. As fluky as it may look, Young's 2014 revival is a reminder that he has talent.
Total
62. Luke Gregerson, RP, Free Agent
40 of 101
Talent Outlook
With a 2.12 ERA in 2014, Luke Gregerson notched his fourth straight season with a sub-3.00 mark. That's pretty good for a guy who's not overpowering, and Gregerson's able to do it because he combines very strong command with a good sinker-slider mix that gets him swinging strikes and ground balls.
However, Gregerson's average velocity has already dipped under 89 mph, and he's not leaning as heavily on his slider as he did at his peak. His sinker is good enough at inducing ground balls to justify that movement, but his days as a dominant setup man could be nearing their end.
Durability Outlook
The only reliever who's logged more innings than Gregerson since 2009 is Tyler Clippard. Obviously, you can't be worked that hard unless you have durability working for you.
The notion that Gregerson's past workload could catch up with him, though, isn't as big of a red flag as it probably should be. He doesn't have an alarming injury history, and his slow phasing out of his slider should help preserve his arm going forward.
Value Outlook
Given that he's not too old and has a very good track record to lean on, Gregerson should be in line for some multiyear offers this winter. Something in between what Edward Mujica and Joaquin Benoit got last winter sounds about right, and that would be two years for around $12 million.
That would be a solid value buy if Gregerson were to reproduce his 2014 results. And even if he declines slightly due to his weakening whiff habit, his command and ground-ball tendencies should keep him effective enough to earn it.
Total
61. Edinson Volquez, SP, Free Agent
41 of 101
Talent Outlook
The Pittsburgh Pirates were going for a classic reclamation project when they brought Edinson Volquez aboard, and it worked. He made 31 starts for them in 2014 and pitched to a career-best 3.04 ERA. More than anything, the key to his success was simply throwing more strikes than ever before.
But be careful about reading too much into Volquez's ERA. He was still prone to walks and wild pitches, and a slight velocity spike didn't make him any better at missing bats. That's an uncomfortable thought, knowing that said velocity spike may go away soon—he'll turn 32 during the 2015 season.
Durability Outlook
In large part due to a Tommy John operation in 2010, Volquez wasn't seen much between 2009 and 2011. But he's since started at least 30 games and topped 170 innings three years in a row. And apart from some blister issues, his health has been fine.
That's a reason for some optimism, and it can also be argued that Volquez's arm is relatively well preserved. He may be 31 years old, but he only has about 1,050 big league innings on his arm. At his age, that's not so bad.
Value Outlook
Volquez's market certainly won't be weighed down by ties to draft-pick compensation. But with front offices around the league refusing to budge for ERA like they used to, the best Volquez can do is probably a two-year deal at around $8 million to $10 million, perhaps with an option for a third.
That's a good deal if he repeats his 3.04 ERA. But it's probably more likely that he'll be little more than a No. 5 starter and at best will be able to live up to such a contract rather than surpass expectations.
Total
60. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Trade
42 of 101
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
A career .300 hitter coming into the year, Carlos Gonzalez suffered through a disastrous 2014. He hit only .238 with a .292 OBP, the result of a grossly overaggressive approach and a dearth of good contact best represented by a career-low line-drive rate (15.3 percent).
Of course, Gonzalez's track record says he's worth viewing as a big-time bounce-back candidate. But his track record has been largely influenced by Coors Field. Besides that, his living up to his history hinges on Gonzalez getting over the health problems he had in 2014. And about those...
Durability Outlook
After being limited to 110 games in 2013, Gonzalez played just 70 contests in 2014. He dealt with finger injuries both at the end of 2013 and beginning of 2014 and was ultimately sidelined for good by left knee surgery.
That Gonzalez is still only 29 is the good news, but his injury history is getting scary. After dealing with nagging ailments in 2011 and 2012, he's graduated to serious injuries. And unless he's removed from the outfield, his surgically repaired left knee won't be spared from any running.
Value Outlook
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Colorado Rockies will only entertain moving either Gonzalez or Troy Tulowitzki "for returns that would reflect their contributions when healthy." That's a big "if" where Gonzalez is concerned, and his $53 million price tag over the next three seasons heightens the risk factor.
And if a team were to pay the Rockies' fee, it would inevitably get burned. Even if he were to come back from his injuries, Gonzalez being a superstar player away from Coors Field isn't likely.
Total
59. Torii Hunter, OF, Free Agent
43 of 101
Talent Outlook
After back-to-back years with a .300 average, Torii Hunter returned to hit a respectable .286 with 17 home runs in 2014. This goes to show how his late-career transformation into a swing-happy hitter is still producing plenty of good contact.
The trade-off is that Hunter posted his lowest OBP (.319) in over a decade in 2014, a reminder that aggressiveness can have a major drawback. He's also turned into a station-to-station runner and a statue in right field. As such, what he can do with his bat is only worth so much.
Durability Outlook
In playing in 142 contests in 2014, Hunter made it five years in a row and eight out of nine with at least 140 games played. Considering that he just turned 39, that's impressive durability for a guy his age.
Of course, Hunter needs the more-than-occasional day off in order to maintain that durability at this point. And as impressive as his track record is, it's not an ironclad guarantee that he won't break down in 2015. His 18-year career has put a lot of miles on his body.
Value Outlook
Hunter made $26 million in a two-year deal with the Detroit Tigers. If he comes back for one more shot at a ring in 2015, it will more than likely be in a one-year deal for a smaller salary. Say, something like $10 million or $11 million.
Money like that would buy a solid average, a few dingers and Hunter's trademark clubhouse presence. But it just wouldn't be worth it, as Hunter has become a below-average total package.
Total
58. Alex Rios, OF, Free Agent
44 of 101
Talent Outlook
That Alex Rios hit .280 in 2014 is the good news. He just didn't do much else well. His lack of patience limited his OBP to .311, he hit only four home runs, got caught stealing nine times in 26 attempts and played iffy defense in right field.
Rios should be able to continue hitting for high averages, as he's still mixing a contact-oriented approach with a line-drive stroke. But his power, speed and defense issues are worth reading into, as these are things that would be affected by age. And with his age-34 season due up, Rios is no longer young.
Durability Outlook
Durability has long been a feather in Rios' cap, as he's only been on the DL once in 11 years while topping 145 games played in all but three seasons.
Of course, his track record only counts for so much with what will surely be a short-term contract in his future. Then there's the reality that he just had a season end early thanks to a thumb injury and that his durability over the years means there's a lot of miles on his soon-to-be 34-year-old body.
Value Outlook
The Texas Rangers turned down a $13.5 million option to make Rios a free agent, and they were right to do so. And because front offices are too smart to pay for his batting average potential, it wouldn't be surprising if his age and limitations led him to accept a one-year deal for roughly half his option value.
He could earn money like that if he got back to mixing power and speed with good defense. But at his age, Rios getting back to doing that is at best an iffy proposal.
Total
57. Carlos Ruiz, C, Trade
45 of 101
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe and Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News
Talent Outlook
Carlos Ruiz bounced back from a disappointing 2013 to post a .347 OBP and .717 OPS in 2014. The key was an advanced approach, as he excelled at both patience and making contact. He also continued to do a decent job controlling the running game and at keeping wayward pitches in front of him.
But Ruiz isn't without red flags. His struggles against 90-plus heat aren't a good look for a soon-to-be 36-year-old who didn't have much bat speed to begin with. And while he's solid defensively, getting extra strikes with framing still isn't one of his top talents.
Durability Outlook
Since 2007, Ruiz has played in over 100 games in every season except one. And in playing in 110 games in 2014, he showed he's more durable than a lot of catchers are by the time they get to be his age.
This is not to say Ruiz is indestructible, though. He's had to hit the disabled list once in each of the past three seasons, and he recently underwent surgery on his left shoulder, which had bothered him throughout 2014. With his age and track record, continued durability isn't a safe bet.
Value Outlook
Assuming Ruiz is one of many non-untouchables Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told Ryan Lawrence about, he could be a hot commodity on the trade market. He's owed at least $17.5 million in the next two seasons, but the lack of good free-agent options could result in a trade that nets the Phillies the young talent and payroll relief they desperately need.
Such a deal would net Ruiz's new team a solid starter behind the dish, and he could justify the trade with two more seasons just like 2014. But knowing about the red flags, don't consider that a given.
Total
56. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Trade
46 of 101
Rumor Source: Joel Sherman of the New York Post
Talent Outlook
After posting an ugly 5.17 ERA in 2013, Jeremy Hellickson only lowered his ERA to 4.52 in a limited sample size in 2014. Such mediocrity is the danger of mixing a pedestrian 3.0 BB/9 with lots of fly balls and line drives. As much as any other pitcher, Hellickson just plain flirts with danger.
Hellickson is pretty good at keeping his stuff down, though, and his changeup is still one of the best swing-and-miss changeups out there. That and his increasing use of his curveball help explain his upward-trending strikeout rate. In short, it's not as bad as it looks.
Durability Outlook
The good news is that Hellickson is still only 27 years old and that he doesn't even have 650 big league innings on his arm yet. These things make him a good bet to remain durable in the two years of club control he has left before free agency.
The elephant in the room, however, is that he's coming off an elbow procedure that sidelined him for more than half of 2014. It's a good sign that his stuff recovered just fine, but you can't help but be worried about such a significant elbow injury occurring so recently in a pitcher's past.
Value Outlook
Since Hellickson is likely to get more expensive in his next round of arbitration, it makes sense that the Tampa Bay Rays are looking to move him. But there's no question they'll be selling low on him if he is traded, as the Rays may only command spare parts or a fellow reclamation project in exchange for him.
Since Hellickson has merits as a reclamation project, he could more than justify such a deal. He may look like at best a No. 5 starter, but a couple small tweaks could turn him into a No. 4 or No. 3 starter.
Total
55. Jason Castro, C, Trade
47 of 101
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
After breaking out with an .835 OPS and 18 home runs in 2013, Jason Castro regressed to post just a .651 OPS with 14 homers in 2014. That was him paying the price for being too aggressive with a bad swing-and-miss habit. He also had issues on defense, namely with passed balls and base stealers.
When one looks ahead to Castro's final two years of club control, getting his hitting back on track will require fixing his approach. But even if that weren't to pan out, he'd still have power and good framing to offer. He was one of the 10 best catchers in the league at earning extra strikes in 2014.
Durability Outlook
Castro played in a career-high 126 games in 2014. He wouldn't have been able to do that without avoiding the DL for the first time since 2010. That makes him out to be a 27-year-old backstop who's getting healthier rather than more banged up.
Nevertheless, Castro's injury history is still concerning. His right knee has landed him on the DL three times, and the injury to it has been significant each of those times. A bet on him being over those troubles wouldn't be an easy one to make.
Value Outlook
Castro would have been a very hot commodity on the trade market a year ago, but not so much now. The weak free-agent class of catchers should help the Houston Astros drum up interest in him, but Castro's injury history and weak 2014 will lower the price. If he's moved, a good guess is that it would be for a young reclamation project and/or a handful of non-elite prospects.
That would be a steal if Castro were to get back to his 2013 production. And even if he doesn't, the power and framing he offered in 2014 could be good enough to at least make it worthwhile.
Total
54. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Trade
48 of 101
Rumor Source: Andy Martino of the New York Daily News
Talent Outlook
The 2014 season was Mike Moustakas' third in a row with an OBP under .300, and he had just a .632 OPS. The hope with him is that the .817 OPS he authored in the postseason is something he can build off. Since he worked good at-bats and took some good swings in October, maybe that's possible.
But then again, maybe not. Moustakas had a rather typical .259 OBP to go with his postseason OPS, so how much he actually changed is a good question. And if he hasn't changed, then we're still looking at a hitter with a bad platoon split who's also way too pull-heavy. He's also hit or miss defensively.
Durability Outlook
Since trading for Moustakas would mean taking on the three years of club control he has left, how durable he's going to be is a pressing concern.
Fortunately, things look good. Beyond only being 26 years old, Moustakas hasn't yet hit the DL as a big leaguer, and his injury track record really doesn't contain anything scary. That he has yet to play 150 games in a season frankly has little to do with his body misbehaving.
Value Outlook
If the Kansas City Royals listen to offers like Andy Martino says they're expected to, now would actually be a good time to trade Moustakas. Rather than his inconsistency, teams could focus more on his solid postseason and be willing to fork over some young MLB-ready talent for him.
For a powerful third baseman with a couple years of club control left, that sounds like a fair deal on the surface. But with few guarantees that Moustakas can even be so much as an average regular, there's a decent chance he'll ultimately prove to be fool's gold if he's traded this winter.
Total
53. Aaron Harang, SP, Free Agent
49 of 101
Talent Outlook
After posting an ugly 5.40 ERA in 2013, Aaron Harang joined the Atlanta Braves and posted a 3.57 ERA in 204.1 innings in 2014. This was mainly a function of him going full smoke and mirrors, as his pitch selection reached a whole new level of diversity.
That's not a bad way for a veteran pitcher to get back on track, and the process effectively proved that Harang still has it in him to be effective without good velocity or elite command. A repeat performance is likely too good to be true, but Harang should at least be a good back-end guy going forward.
Durability Outlook
That Harang still had enough juice in his body to pitch over 200 innings in 2014 says a lot about how healthy he's kept himself over the years. Amazingly, the 36-year-old has been on the DL only twice with arm injuries—the last time being in 2008.
Harang probably can't be effective enough to hurl 200 innings again. But compared to most pitchers his age, Harang staying healthy and eating innings in the next year or two is a pretty good bet.
Value Outlook
Even after his 2014 revival, it's hard to imagine Harang getting a multiyear deal. With his age and track record, he's more likely to get a one-year deal for a modest sum. Say, somewhere around $7 million to $10 million.
That wouldn't be a steal. But for a guy who can provide some solid innings at the back end of a rotation, it would pass.
Total
52. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Trade
50 of 101
Rumor Source: Todd Zolecki of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Jonathan Papelbon followed a 2.92 ERA—one that had everyone thinking he was declining—in 2013 with a 2.04 ERA in 2014. His diminished fastball velocity is still a concern, but he's making it less of one by toning down his reliance on his heat. This is allowing him to change speeds more effectively, which helps explain why his heater actually experienced an uptick in whiffability in 2014.
Even still, any team that trades for Papelbon has to figure he's not quite as good as his 2014 ERA says he is. He's done well to adjust for his declining velocity, but his margin for error is still smaller than it used to be.
Durability Outlook
Only one reliever has eaten more innings than Papelbon since his first full season in 2006. That's one big reflection of his durability. That he's never been on the DL is the other.
These shouldn't be taken as guarantees that Papelbon is going to remain healthy, however. He is nearly 34 with a lot of mileage on his arm, and decreasing his fastball usage for more sliders and splitters probably won't do his arm any favors.
Value Outlook
In trying to deal Papelbon, the big hurdle for the Philadelphia Phillies is the money remaining on his contract. That's as much as $26 million over the next two seasons. Since no team is going to take on all that, the Phillies' best hope is that they eat a decent chunk of it and get a good young player or two in return.
That would be a good deal for Papelbon's new team if he were to author a couple more seasons like his 2014 campaign. What's more likely, though, is that he'd only perform well enough to justify the deal.
Total
51. Jason Hammel, SP, Free Agent
51 of 101
Talent Outlook
Jason Hammel went from a 2.98 ERA with the Chicago Cubs to a 4.26 ERA with the Oakland A's. That looks bad, but he was actually pretty good in Oakland after his first four starts. It also looks good that he maintained his 92-93 mph heat while his slider enjoyed a renaissance from a whiff-per-swing standpoint.
Still, it could be a problem that Hammel is strictly a fastball-slider pitcher, as his velocity will likely dip in 2015 and beyond. In particular, lefties could take his already iffy career platoon split and make it worse. It's best not to look at him as anything more than a solid back-end guy.
Durability Outlook
Staying healthy was one of the bright spots of Hammel's 2014 season, and doing so allowed him to top 170 innings for the first time since 2011.
That's about his limit, though, as his next 180-inning season will be his first. There's also the likely reality that one healthy season at age 31 doesn't mean more are on the way, especially knowing that he's a slider-heavy pitcher who very recently had a non-minor elbow issue.
Value Outlook
Concerns aside, Hammel should draw interest from clubs that see him as a solid and affordable veteran option to keep around for a few years. That could put him in line for something like a Scott Feldman contract of three years and around $30 million.
Though that would more or less be market value for Hammel, a deal like that would still be a reach. Hammel's coming off a solid season, but he's still a guy who comes with durability concerns and without much upside.
Total
50. Bartolo Colon, SP, Trade
52 of 101
Rumor Source: Joel Sherman of the New York Post
Talent Outlook
Bartolo Colon followed up two strong seasons in Oakland with a less strong 2014 in New York, posting a 4.09 ERA in 202.1 innings. He did pitch better than his ERA, however. He continued to pound the zone on his way to an impressive 5.0 K/BB ratio and also had a reasonable home run rate for a fly-ball pitcher.
Then again, that's also the iffy part. Colon's splits show how much he needed Citi Field's big outfield to keep things under control. That's a luxury he won't necessarily have with a new team, and taking him for a ride will likely only get easier if his velocity dips again.
Durability Outlook
Colon's been able to make at least 30 starts in each of the last two seasons, racking up close to 400 innings in the process. That's pretty good stuff for a guy his age.
At the same time, it's hardly a guarantee that Colon's body won't break down at a moment's notice. He is, after all, a bad-bodied 41-year-old with over 2,800 innings on his arm and quite an extensive injury history. None of that bodes well.
Value Outlook
If the New York Mets dangle Colon, they'll presumably be dangling him for a bat. If so, their options will be limited. With Colon's contract containing only one more year at $11 million, the Mets will likely only be able to get back a veteran hitter without much controlability left.
That wouldn't be too big a price to pay to get Colon. And provided he has a big enough ballpark to work with, Colon living up to his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter would make it a fair swap.
Total
49. Mat Latos, SP, Trade
53 of 101
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
Though he was limited to just 16 starts in 2014, Mat Latos followed up a 3.16 ERA in 2013 with a 3.25 ERA. He was able to do so despite a big drop in his velocity and diminished use of his slider, which says a lot about the kind of pitcher he is.
Either that, or Latos got really lucky. That appears to be the case, based on how much his strikeout rate and ground-ball rate dipped. And though he pitched successfully anyway, it's a scary sign going forward that he lost velocity and, evidently, confidence in his slider.
Durability Outlook
And now for a look at why Latos' season started late and then featured lower velocity and fewer sliders: He had surgery on his right elbow over the 2013-14 offseason, then suffered a knee injury and then experienced more elbow problems toward the end of the year.
Latos may only be 26 years old, but this is concerning stuff. If he's damaged goods, a team betting on him to stay healthy and eat innings in 2015 is just as iffy as betting on his good stuff coming back to him.
Value Outlook
The Ken Rosenthal link up there will tell you Latos is the most likely starter to be traded by the Cincinnati Reds, and he's probably right. With Latos coming off a down year and due for a raise in arbitration, he's a good guy for the Reds to dangle.
Given what went on in 2014 and his lack of controllability, however, Latos could likely be had for a reasonable trade package. Maybe something like a young player who's part upside play and part reclamation project. If so, that's a deal that even a diminished Latos might be able to justify.
Total
48. Nori Aoki, RF, Free Agent
54 of 101
Talent Outlook
With a .285 average and .349 OBP in 2014, Nori Aoki effectively proved he's incapable of doing worse than a .280-ish average and .350-ish OBP. No wonder, as his approach features plenty of discipline and loads of contact with good bat control. And even with a tendency to make things interesting, he's still a solid defensive right fielder.
Aoki's biggest limit, however, is power that's quickly becoming nonexistent. And with his stolen-base habit also trending downward, you wonder if his legs are starting to feel his 32 years.
Durability Outlook
Mind you, it's not just Aoki's dwindling steals totals that make you wonder if his legs are beginning to reflect his age. They've also been banged up a bit in the last two years, as he suffered through patellar tendinitis in 2013 and groin trouble in 2014.
This is when you notice that Aoki has played in well over 1,000 games in Japan and the majors. So he has mileage, age and injury concerns, making his long-term durability outlook somewhat iffy.
Value Outlook
Go looking for recent contracts for contact-oriented hitters. Really the only relevant comp that appears is Marco Scutaro and the three-year, $20 million deal he signed a couple years ago with the Giants. Since Aoki is younger than the then-37-year-old and a better defender with more speed, he should be able to make over $30 million in a three-year deal.
It's doubtful whether Aoki could be worth an investment like that. He gets on base fine, but on-base ability without power and speed is only worth so much. That's a real concern with him, and that's without getting into his aging legs or the unpredictability of his defense.
Total
47. Justin Masterson, SP, Free Agent
55 of 101
Talent Outlook
Justin Masterson never looked like himself in 2014, ultimately finishing with a 5.88 ERA that was brought on in large part by a 4.8 BB/9 rate and more dingers than usual. A bad right knee could explain everything, as an inability to push off properly would decrease one's velocity and hinder one's control.
The bright sides, however, are twofold. One is that Masterson isn't 30 just yet. And through all his struggles, his sinker remained an effective ground-ball pitch, and his slider remained an effective whiff pitch. Even with his command issues, he's very much worth a flier as a reclamation project.
Durability Outlook
It obviously doesn't look good that Masterson was limited to only 25 starts and 128.2 innings in 2014, and it's really been a while since he was fully healthy. Before his knee gave way in 2014, he ended 2013 by battling an oblique injury.
But once again, there are positives. Masterson has youth on his side, and his arm and shoulder are just fine. And if you want to be really optimistic, his lesser workload in 2014 should help his arm and shoulder stay that way.
Value Outlook
There's little doubt that Masterson is going to be picked up on a one-year "prove it" deal this winter, likely for a reasonable rate that could make him a trade candidate at the deadline. Something like $9 million or $10 million should be in the cards.
A deal like that would indeed carry some risk based on what happened with Masterson in 2014. But since he looks like a strong bounce-back candidate, he could more than live up to it.
Total
46. Colby Rasmus, OF, Free Agent
56 of 101
Talent Outlook
Colby Rasmus has had two seasons in the last three in which he's hit around .225 with a sub-.290 OBP. That's not good, and there's no easy fix. His strikeout habit is only getting worse. And in 2014, he was way too easy to beat with anything slow.
But with Rasmus only headed for his age-28 season, he's far from past his prime. At the least, he should maintain his above-average power for a few more years. He's also a better defender than he showed in 2014. With youth and tools on his side, he's the highest-reward reclamation project out there.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 151 games in 2012, Rasmus has been limited to 222 games over the last two seasons. He went on the DL twice in 2013, and his 2014 was marred by hamstring issues and a couple other ailments.
This should be scary stuff, but keep in mind that Rasmus is considerably younger than your average free agent. He's still at an age where he can bounce back from injuries, which certainly helps his outlook, knowing that he's likely ticketed for a short-term deal.
Value Outlook
Rasmus' free agency is going to be mighty interesting. He may find teams willing to give him a cheap multiyear deal, but his youth and upside could have him preferring to sign a one-year "prove it" deal that could potentially make him a hot commodity next winter.
That's the the more likely avenue, with a reasonable salary projection being in the $10 million to $12 million range. That would be wasted money if Rasmus repeated 2014, but it would be a one-year steal if he even so much as hit for a bunch of power while playing good defense. And that's definitely possible.
Total
45. Elvis Andrus, SS, Trade
57 of 101
Rumor Source: Joel Sherman of the New York Post
Talent Outlook
Since peaking with a .727 OPS in 2012, Elvis Andrus has managed just a .653 OPS over the last two seasons. He was especially inept offensively in 2014, posting a .647 OPS with one home run and 15 caught-stealings. Also, the advanced metrics didn't like his defense at short.
Because Andrus is still only 26, it's too soon to say he's lost a step. And because he's still an excellent contact hitter with a good eye, there is hope for his bat. Two subpar years in a row, however, do make it hard to believe that he's still that far above average in the company of his fellow shortstops.
Durability Outlook
Andrus has spent six full seasons in the big leagues, and he's played in at least 145 games in every one of them. Though he's had nagging injuries along the way, his next trip to the DL will be his first. For a team to acquire Andrus it means taking on his eight-year contract. With that in mind, his track record of durability is a relief.
And yet, it does have its limits as an assurance of durability to come. Andrus already has a lot of miles on his body, as he's racked them up at a demanding position. An early decline may be in order.
Value Outlook
Joel Sherman says the Texas Rangers want to unload Andrus' eight-year, $120 million extension, and they just might be able to thanks to his youth and track record. So even if a team were to convince the Rangers to take on only low-level talent in a deal, the cost of acquiring Andrus would still be huge.
Andrus would have to get back to being the player he was in 2012 to be worth it. And knowing that his bat, speed and defense all come with question marks at this point, that's asking a lot.
Total
44. Zach Duke, RP, Free Agent
58 of 101
Talent Outlook
You're looking at a guy who was a hidden gem in 2014. Zach Duke racked up a 2.45 ERA in 74 appearances without a set platoon role against left-handed batters. That's what you can do when you keep everything low with a sinker that gets grounders and a curveball that gets whiffs.
Hitters did catch on a little bit in the second half, however, as Duke had a harder time limiting walks and limiting hard contact. Even despite these things, he's a good candidate to fit the Jeremy Affeldt mold of a lefty who can be used against anyone for ground balls and strikeouts.
Durability Outlook
Duke was a starter before he was a reliever, so him remaining durable going forward isn't so much a question of whether he can handle a reliever's workload.
It's more a question of how many bullets Duke has left. He's a soon-to-be 32-year-old with over 1,100 innings on his arm, and he does have some elbow trouble on his medical record. With breaking balls accounting for nearly 50 percent of his pitches, he may be asking for more elbow trouble.
Value Outlook
Though Duke had a very strong season in 2014, it's not a given that his next contract will blow away the $850,000 salary the Milwaukee Brewers paid him. The best guess is that he'll have to choose from an array of one-year offers that likely won't go any higher than $5 million.
Given the perfect storm of things that made him effective in 2014, that means Duke is a solid setup man who won't necessarily be paid like one. He's a solid value buy.
Total
43. Pat Neshek, RP, Free Agent
59 of 101
Talent Outlook
Pat Neshek emerged as a dominant setup man in 2014, posting a 1.87 ERA with an outstanding 7.6 K/BB ratio. That's reflective of how he carried out an all-out assault on the strike zone, and dialing back the use of his slider actually made it a more effective swing-and-miss pitch.
It's not going to be easy for Neshek to do that again, as maintaining his 2014 velocity spike in his age-34 season is unlikely. His best hope lies in how his good command and more diverse pitch mix made him a very tough pitcher to square up—which, fortunately, is hardly a doomed hope.
Durability Outlook
Neshek got an awful lot of work in 2014, appearing in 71 games and racking up 67.1 innings. How he'll bounce back is a good question, as he's an older pitcher who hadn't had such a heavy workload since back in 2007.
Still, that Neshek hasn't had any injury issues since 2010 bodes well. Also, scaling back the use of his slider should help preserve a right elbow that underwent a Tommy John operation in 2009. He's not a sure thing to age well, but it could be worse.
Value Outlook
After earning just $1 million with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2014, Neshek is in line for a considerable pay raise after his excellent 2014 campaign. Even if teams only look at him as a specialist, he's a good bet for a two-year deal at around $5 million-$6 million annually.
Since he was worth a lot more than that in his dominant 2014 season, he could surely at least live up to it even if he does regress in the next couple seasons.
Total
42. Michael Saunders, OF, Trade
60 of 101
Rumor Source: Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com
Talent Outlook
A solid hitter in 2012 and 2013, Michael Saunders was more than solid in 2014, with a .791 OPS. Granted, he did that in a limited sample size (263 plate appearances), but it came largely courtesy of a career-best mix of discipline, contact and line drives. Some good luck was involved, but it was mostly good talent.
That Saunders can still be beaten with slow stuff means his hitting potential may not go much higher, but he has other talents that give him value. He's a solid baserunner and above-average defensive right fielder. With only his age-28 season due up, these talents shouldn't be going anywhere for a while.
Durability Outlook
After peaking with 139 games in 2012, Saunders played in 132 games in 2013 and only in 78 in 2014. Injuries took their toll, as he lost 65 games to the DL with oblique and shoulder injuries, in addition to a couple other setbacks.
Saunders still being very much in the middle of his prime years is the good news, but his difficulty evading the injury bug is nothing new. For a team to take him on would mean taking on the two years of club control he has left, and his track record offers no guarantees those would be healthy years.
Value Outlook
After Saunders' strong season in 2014, the Seattle Mariners presumably won't be interested in acquiring prospects for him. They'll want a player or players ready to contribute, with their preference possibly being a right-handed stick for a decidedly left-heavy lineup.
This is to say the Mariners probably won't be dumb enough to sell low on a player who, injuries aside, is a talented outfielder with a couple years of club control left. But while the price to acquire Saunders could be considerable, those are good reasons to think he'd be worth it.
Total
41. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS, Free Agent
61 of 101
Talent Outlook
Asdrubal Cabrera failed to recover from his harsh offensive decline in 2014, following up a .700 OPS in 2013 with a .694 OPS in 2014. With an aggressive approach that doesn't have an answer for good heat and produces an abundance of fly balls, improvement isn't in the cards.
But Cabrera is not without things to offer. Four straight years of at least 14 homers means he still has good power for a middle infielder, and range and arm strength that don't play at short play pretty well at second. Heading into his age-29 season, these skills should stick for a few more years.
Durability Outlook
Despite the fact that he's been an everyday player since 2008, Cabrera has actually had only one season in which he topped 150 games played. He's been reasonably durable but has generally been unable to keep the nagging injuries at bay.
This will probably continue to be par for the course. Cabrera may have youth on his side, but he's also spent his whole career playing demanding positions while also pushing himself on the basepaths. Expectations for his durability should be subdued to an extent.
Value Outlook
After making $10 million in 2014, Cabrera is hitting an open market that, due to a lack of options, could be willing to pay him that much per season in a multiyear deal. He's in line for at least a three-year contract in the $30 million neighborhood, and it wouldn't be a shock if someone gave him a fourth year.
Maybe that seems like a lot for a player as limited as Cabrera is, but he could earn it. Middle infielders with his power aren't overly common, and his youth helps downplay some of his durability red flags.
Total
40. David Robertson, RP, Free Agent
62 of 101
Talent Outlook
David Robertson had his share of misadventures in his first full season as a closer in 2014, including giving up a career-high seven homers and upping his walks per nine innings from 2.4 in 2013 to 3.2. This was no fluke, as he was less prolific than usual at pounding the zone and his cutter was quite hittable.
The bright side is that Robertson's velocity isn't showing a clear declining pattern as he approaches 30. He's also put himself in a position to rely less on his heat, as his excellent swing-and-miss curveball is becoming more of a featured weapon. He's not without faults, but his talent should age fine.
Durability Outlook
Robertson has topped 60 appearances and 60 innings in each of the last five seasons, making him one of only four relievers to do so. It feels like he's done it somewhat under the radar, but he's been one of the most reliable relievers in baseball over the last few seasons.
He hasn't been completely healthy the whole time, however. An oblique strain put him on the disabled list for a month in 2012, and a groin strain sidelined him for a couple weeks in 2014. Take these injuries into account with his heavy workload before the age of 30, and it's not quite a lock that he'll remain durable.
Value Outlook
Whether Robertson would go for a $15.3 million salary for 2015 by accepting a qualifying offer from the New York Yankees was one of the big questions when the QOs were handed out. He chose not to, thereby setting himself up for a multiyear deal that very likely won't be worth $15.3 million per year.
But if Rafael Soriano could find a two-year, $28 million deal despite his ties to draft-pick compensation a couple winters ago, Robertson should be able to find at least a three-year deal worth upwards of $40 million. Since he's less than a flawless closer, him being worth that and the lost draft pick is unlikely.
Total
39. Andrew Miller, RP, Free Agent
63 of 101
Talent Outlook
With a 2.02 ERA, an excellent 14.9 K/9 and only a 2.5 BB/9, Andrew Miller was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2014. He certainly looked the part, too, combining a 93-94 mph heater with a wipeout slider that drew whiffs on over half the swings taken at it.
Mind you, Miller's command really isn't as sharp as his walk rate makes it look. And though still good, his fastball velocity was down a mile per hour from where it was in 2012 and 2013. Whichever team signs him will need his slider to stay sharp, as he may only have above-average velocity for a couple more years.
Durability Outlook
Miller crossed the 60-inning plateau in 73 appearances in 2014, but his track record before 2014 is best described as hectic. He only became a full-time reliever in 2012, and a hamstring injury that year and a foot injury in 2013 delayed his emergence as a reliable bullpen arm.
Beyond these red flags lies the concern that Miller may be headed for an arm injury in the future. He doesn't have the smoothest delivery, and it's hard not to worry about a guy who throws his hard slider more than 40 percent of the time.
Value Outlook
That Miller was barred from the qualifying offer thanks to a midseason trade should mean a longer list of suitors for him to choose from this winter. Combined with his excellent 2014 campaign, the result could be something as large as a three-year deal worth somewhere in the $25 million-$30 million range.
If so, he'd essentially be getting "proven closer" money. He could undeniably earn that with more years like 2014, but his 2014 represents the pinnacle of his talent more so than his actual talent level.
Total
38. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Free Agent
64 of 101
Talent Outlook
After a lost season in 2013, Adam LaRoche bounced back to post an .817 OPS and hit 26 home runs in 2014, making it two years out of three with at least 25 homers and an .800 OPS. His mix of power and patience will appeal to clubs in need of a good bat at first base, and he's also a quality defender.
However, there is the worry of LaRoche's bat slowing down as he continues to age. To that end, that he had a difficult time with hard stuff away is a concern. He also really only had pull power in 2014, so there are already age-related flaws in his hitting that will likely only get worse.
Durability Outlook
In playing in 140 games in 2014, LaRoche made it eight out of 11 big league seasons in which he's played in at least that many games. And in spending his entire career at first base, he's stuck at a position that takes it pretty easy on the body.
These aren't guarantees that LaRoche will remain durable, however. He's 35 years old, and he's dealt with a series of nagging injuries over the past three seasons. He could be a guy who's durable right up until he's not.
Value Outlook
Unlike the last time he was a free agent, LaRoche won't have to worry about ties to draft-pick compensation limiting his market this time around. And after living up to a $12 million salary in 2014, he's probably in line for a two-year deal that will land in the $25 million range.
A couple more seasons of an .800 OPS and 25 jacks would make that quite a good deal. But considering his age and red flags, hoping for a couple more seasons like that is probably hoping for too much.
Total
37. Kenta Maeda, SP, International Free Agent
65 of 101
Talent Outlook
Kenta Maeda has authored some eye-popping numbers in Japan, including a 2.56 ERA in 2014. According to a 2013 scouting report from Ben Badler of Baseball America, what gets it done for the 26-year-old right-hander is an impressive command, an 87-93 mph heater and an above-average slider.
One scout's thinking is that Maeda could be a No. 4 starter in the majors, and that sounds about right. You can go far with plus command but not much further without any plus pitches. That's the downside of Maeda, as he doesn't have anything to match Yu Darvish's slider or Masahiro Tanaka's splitter.
Durability Outlook
I didn't have any luck trying to draw up Maeda's medical history, but there are things about him that will appeal to prospective buyers.
One is that Maeda is only 26 and has fewer innings on his arm than Tanaka had at the same age. He's also said to be a good athlete who repeats his delivery well. So over the life of a long-term contract, there's more than a decent chance that he stays healthy.
Value Outlook
Whether the Hiroshima Carp will make Maeda available is a good question at this point. But if they do, a report from Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe suggests he could get over $100 million. And that would be on top of the $20 million posting fee.
If so, that's an awful lot of money for a guy who profiles as a No. 4 starter. Even if Maeda only goes more in the $80 million-$100 million range, he may not have the goods to justify the expense.
Total
36. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Trade
66 of 101
Rumor Source: Todd Zolecki of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
The 2014 season saw Jimmy Rollins rebound from a .667 OPS in 2013 with a .717 mark. His power resurgence was a big help, as he went from six homers to 17. And even at 35, he still managed to challenge the 30-stolen-base plateau with 28 thefts.
With Rollins suddenly overmatched against good heat, his 2014 production is likely as good as it's going to get. But he should have one more year of good power and speed left in him before he becomes a free agent after 2015, and the advanced metrics are right in thinking he can still handle himself at short.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 138 games in 2014, Rollins has now played in at least that many games in five of six seasons. And throughout his whole career, 2010 was really the only year in which health problems got in his way.
This is not to say Rollins' durability outlook is perfect, though. He did have some groin issues in 2014, including one that sidelined him for a good chunk of September. And with 14 years of heavy action preceding his age-36 season in 2015, he'll need to be handled with care no matter what.
Value Outlook
If the Philadelphia Phillies dangle Rollins this winter, the idea presumably will be to get young talent in exchange for him. Since the one year remaining on his deal is likely to attract contenders only, it's possible the Phillies will get what they want in a handful of prospects or one MLB-ready young player.
If so, it's the Phillies who would end up winning a deal like that. Rollins should have one more good year left in him, but one good year from him likely won't be good enough to justify a loss of young talent.
Total
35. Marlon Byrd, OF, Trade
67 of 101
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
Marlon Byrd's OPS dropped 86 points from 2013 to 2014, and not by accident. He has an extremely aggressive, undisciplined approach that features a lot of whiffs, making it tough for him to be consistent at the dish.
The trade-off, of course, is that Byrd's contact is loud contact. He swings for the fences now and hits enough fly balls (40.3 percent) to make it worth his while. His 49 dingers over the last two seasons can vouch. As a bonus, he's also a pretty good defender in right field.
Durability Outlook
Byrd played in 154 games in 2014 and 301 games overall in the last two seasons. And somewhat surprisingly, he's only had to hit the DL once in the last six campaigns: with facial fractures after a hit-by-pitch in 2011.
However, Byrd is also 37 years old with plenty of mileage on his body, and his 6'0" frame is carrying close to 250 pounds to boot. Byrd remaining durable in the last two years of his contract in 2015 (guaranteed) 2016 (club option), therefore, isn't quite a sure thing.
Value Outlook
Ken Rosenthal says that Byrd is the most popular of the Philadelphia Phillies' trade chips, and that's no surprise. His right-handed power is a rare asset, and his age and mere $8 million salary for 2015 ought to make him reasonably affordable in a deal.
But since the Phillies presumably aren't interested in swapping Byrd for another free agent-to-be, it could cost a team a piece or two of controllable talent to get him. It's a good thing he likely has another 25 dingers in him, because he'd need to hit at least that many to justify such a deal.
Total
34. Melky Cabrera, OF, Free Agent
68 of 101
Talent Outlook
After a lost season in 2013, Melky Cabrera bounced back in a big way to hit .301 with an .808 OPS in 2014. He was as good a contact hitter as he's really always been, but he was simply able to make much better contact thanks to a return to good health after playing 2013 with a tumor on his spine.
This makes it three years out of four that Cabrera has been a .300 hitter, and the skills that have made that possible shouldn't abandon him anytime soon. He should also have 15-homer power for a couple more seasons. But be warned: His good hitting doesn't come with good baserunning or defense.
Durability Outlook
Durability was one of Cabrera's hallmarks right up until 2013, but things have been dicey ever since. His entire 2013 season was marred by health problems, and his 2014 season ultimately came to an early end thanks to a finger injury.
With hitters, there's always the concern that finger injuries will find ways to linger. Beyond that, it's not such a good look that a guy who recently turned 30 has had trouble staying healthy all of a sudden. In a long-term contact, Cabrera does come with some durability risk.
Value Outlook
After making $8 million in each of the last two seasons, Cabrera is going to be on the lookout for a multiyear deal that will may him eight figures a year. His ties to draft-pick compensation will limit his market, but a switch-hitter with his bat should still be able to find something to his liking.
Something like Nick Swisher's four-year, $56 million contract could be in store for Cabrera. He could earn that deal with four more seasons like 2014, but only barely, due to his modest power and subpar baserunning and defense. Add in his durability issues, and his next deal will likely be an overpay.
Total
33. Chase Utley, 2B, Trade
69 of 101
Rumor Source: Todd Zolecki of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Chase Utley followed a solid .823 OPS in 2013 with a less-solid .746 OPS in 2014, hitting only 11 homers and stealing only 10 bases on the side. And with his age-36 season due up, expecting his power or speed to get a boost isn't the best idea.
But Utley still has plenty to offer. He still combines good patience with a strong contact-making ability at the dish, and his compact swing is still good for solid contact. He's also still an excellent defensive second baseman. With these things, he can be a well-rounded player even without vintage power and speed.
Durability Outlook
Utley was able to play in 155 games in 2014, his most since playing in 156 back in 2009. This, of course, is both the good news and bad news.
You probably know what the bad news is all about. Utley ran into all sorts of injury problems between 2010 and 2013. One healthy season doesn't necessarily mean he's clear of the injury bug, especially at his age. Since taking him on means potentially taking on four more seasons, this is a concern.
Value Outlook
The Phillies will certainly look to get young talent in return for Utley if they dangle him. To this end, the three vesting options on his contract after 2015 could complicate things. Those mean that taking him on could translate to a $55 million payout instead of just a $10 million hit in 2015.
Still, reliable talent at second base is rare enough that some team might be willing to fork over a couple good young players to get Utley. In that case, he'd need to produce more than just one good season to justify the deal. With his age and durability concerns, I'm not so sure about that.
Total
32. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Trade
70 of 101
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
Howie Kendrick made it three years out of four with an OPS of at least .740 in 2014, which is good stuff for a second baseman playing his home games at a pitcher-friendly park. He's an aggressive hitter, but one with good contact ability and the bat control to execute his opposite-field approach like clockwork.
Aside from his good hitting, Kendrick can also play a solid second base and offer some speed. But now that he's 31, there might not be much of that left. It's also unlikely he'll ever develop into a legit power threat. He's too much of a ground-ball hitter, and his power really only goes to right-center field.
Durability Outlook
Kendrick only has one more year to go until free agency, and it's a good bet that he'll remain durable for it. He's played in at least 140 games in four of the last five seasons, and his injury history is in good shape for a guy who's past 30.
Still, that Kendrick is past 30 is a red flag in its own right. That veteran second basemen have been known to fall apart in a hurry is another. So while he's a good bet to remain durable, he's not a sure thing.
Value Outlook
If Ken Rosenthal is right about the Los Angeles Angels possibly dangling Kendrick for pitching, a weak class of free-agent second basemen should allow them to jack up their asking price. A solid No. 3 starter sounds like a reasonable return.
Provided it's a free-agent-to-be-for-free-agent-to-be swap, a team could easily justify dealing away a good starter to get Kendrick. His decline years are coming, but he should have at least one more season of solid hitting, baserunning and defense left in him.
Total
31. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Trade
71 of 101
Rumor Source: Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com
Talent Outlook
Daniel Murphy finished 2014 with his average in the .290 range for a third straight season but was hitting over .300 as late as Sept. 10. It was legit, too, as he was hacking away more aggressively in the zone and hitting tons of line drives.
Murphy's bat shouldn't be in danger of slowing down with only his age-30 season due up in 2015. Also, he should have one more year of solid power and speed in him before free agency. Just don't expect good defense to be part of the package, as Murphy's is easily below average.
Durability Outlook
Murphy isn't even 30 yet, and he's played in 460 games over the last three seasons, which makes his durability outlook for his final year before free agency pretty good.
But his track record isn't flawless. Murphy did have to hit the disabled list with a leg injury toward the end of 2014, an injury that makes it easy to recall the series of knee setbacks he suffered in 2010 and 2011. He's a good bet to stay healthy in 2015, but not a lock.
Value Outlook
If Adam Rubin is to be believed, the ideal trade package for the New York Mets in a Murphy deal would involve an outfielder with some power. The Mets could probably get a player like that, but it would really be an outfielder with "some" power.
That doesn't mean Murphy wouldn't be worth giving up a player like that. If he has one more year of good hitting and baserunning left in him, he could hold up his end of the deal.
Total
30. Evan Gattis, C, Trade
72 of 101
Rumor Source: Joel Sherman of the New York Post
Talent Outlook
Evan Gattis followed up a breakout rookie season in 2013 with an even better year at the dish in 2014, posting an .810 OPS and hitting 22 homers. His aggressive and whiff-happy approach limit his OBP potential, but he has no problems making hard contact and has better bat control than you'd think.
But while Gattis is undeniably an above-average offensive catcher, his defense was an issue in 2014. He was at best a passable receiver and otherwise had issues both controlling the running game and with wild pitches. The best home for him is with an American League team willing to use him at DH.
Durability Outlook
Gattis has the distinction of being both young (28) and well-preserved, as he only started playing minor league ball in 2010 before breaking into the majors in 2013.
But his durability isn't without question marks. Gattis has hit the disabled list once in both of his first two seasons and has consistently dealt with minor injuries. And while his 6'4", 260-pound frame is an asset in the power department, you do worry about that much bulk spending so much time in the crouch.
Value Outlook
In dangling Gattis on the trade market, the Atlanta Braves are dangling a powerful catcher with four years of club control left. That's a valuable asset, and it's not hard to imagine the Braves getting back one or several equally valuable controllable players in return for Gattis.
A deal like that would leave a lot for Gattis to live up to, and his durability issues and other limitations make it no guarantee that he would. But with right-handed power like his in short supply and his defense behind the plate occasionally competent, his new team would have to like its chances.
Total
29. Nick Markakis, RF, Free Agent
73 of 101
Talent Outlook
Nick Markakis only raised his average five points from 2013 to 2014, but an increase in OBP and power helped him raise his OPS 44 points from .685 to .729. His hitting has a good floor thanks to his mix of good discipline with elite contact and bat control, and he did indeed get back to driving the ball in 2014.
However, Markakis' power is nothing special by corner-outfield standards and likely not getting any better at this point. And though his reputation as a defender precedes him, he really doesn't have a ton of range to go with his arm strength. All told, he's not quite the total package.
Durability Outlook
Durability is one of the things that's defined Markakis' career so far. With 2012 being the lone exception, he's played in 147 games in eight of his nine major league seasons.
Of course, you do wonder when so much mileage will catch up to Markakis. But he's not yet past his prime, and it's within reason to think that his years of patrolling Camden Yards' small right field has helped preserve his legs. Over a long-term contract, he's a pretty good bet to stay on the field.
Value Outlook
Since the Baltimore Orioles didn't want to pay Markakis' $17.5 million option for 2015, it's no surprise they didn't make him a $15.3 million qualifying offer. But this is good news for him, as the market for his services could turn into a bidding war. If Shane Victorino could get three years and $39 million two years ago, Markakis could end up with a four-year deal worth over $50 million.
That would be a good chunk of change for a guy who's not quite a star-level player. But with his durability and solid set of skills, he could make it a rare long-term contract that's actually fair.
Total
28. Nelson Cruz, OF/DH, Free Agent
74 of 101
Talent Outlook
Nelson Cruz followed an .833 OPS and 27 homers in a suspension-shorted 2013 season with an .859 OPS and an MLB-high 40 homers in an explosive 2014 season. With Cruz mixing huge raw power with a consistent fly-ball habit as always, all he really needed to hit 40 homers was good health.
Cruz did, however, come down to earth in a big way in the second half. Consider that a reminder that inconsistency is going to plague him as long as he remains so aggressive and whiff-happy. And with no value coming from him on the bases or on defense, don't think he's changed too much.
Durability Outlook
For a guy who's known for being injury-prone, it's a good look on Cruz that he hasn't been on the DL since 2011. Also a good look is how he's played in 159 games in two of the last three seasons, with only his suspension keeping him from getting there in 2013.
Of course, the counterargument is that Cruz is 34 years old, and there's no erasing his injury history. But what will likely be a nearly (or not at all) full-time role at DH from here does help downplay his age and injury track record, making him a reasonably solid bet to stay on the field.
Value Outlook
After Cruz made a mere $8 million in 2014, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that Cruz is looking for a four-year deal. Presumably, the idea will be to get an average annual value that at least equals the $15.3 million of this year's qualifying offer.
Cruz's age and ties to draft-pick compensation will make it tough for him to find what he wants, but he could probably get $15 million a year over three seasons and an option. That'll seem like a bargain for a guy who just hit 40 homers. But since he's not as good as he looked in the first half of 2014, it won't be.
Total
27. Starlin Castro, SS, Trade
75 of 101
Rumor Source: Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times
Talent Outlook
After a brutal 2013 that featured a .631 OPS, Starlin Castro performed more like himself in 2014, hitting .292 with a .777 OPS. And while it's not so good that his swinging-strike rate is climbing, his being a bit more discerning with his swings and more powerful are fine trade-offs.
Still, all Castro really succeeded in doing in 2014 was getting back to about where he was in 2011 and 2012. Even with his age-25 season still to come, it looks like his offensive floor and ceiling are the same thing. It's also only worth so much, knowing that he's nothing special on defense.
Durability Outlook
Castro had a pretty clean injury history right up until a high ankle sprain sidelined him for pretty much the entire month of September this past season.
Even despite that, his durability outlook is still positive. Castro obviously has youth on his side, and one bad injury doesn't necessarily equal a trend. Beyond that, he's toned it down on the basepaths, which can only help preserve his legs through the five guaranteed years remaining on his contract.
Value Outlook
If the Chicago Cubs heed all the speculation and dangle Castro so they can clear space for their even younger shortstops, a good guess is that they'll ask for pitching in return. Most likely, that'll be young pitching with lots of talent and as much or more club control as Castro.
That's a high price, indeed, and one that could conceivably be paid given that Castro has the youth and raw talent to inspire front-office execs to dream big. But I'm not sure he could live up to a megatrade. The tools are there, but Castro hasn't done much to erase his shortcomings in four full seasons.
Total
26. Mark Buehrle, SP, Trade
76 of 101
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
After a 4.15 ERA in 2013, 2014 was a tale of two seasons for Mark Buehrle. He had a 2.64 ERA in the first half and a 4.64 ERA in the second. That's what happens when bad luck catches up with you, and Buehrle's average on balls in play after the break shows that's what happened.
Still, I'd say Buehrle's true talent lies between those two ERAs. His diminished stuff doesn't miss bats, but he's just about mastered the art of pitching with it. He plays with the edges of the strike zone really well, and he can bamboozle hitters by changing speeds.
Durability Outlook
You know the deal. The last and only time Buehrle has failed to reach 200 innings in his career was back in the first year of the George W. Bush administration. He should be slowing down at 35, but he's not.
That's normally an excuse to anticipate an injury, but Buehrle's different. Beyond having never gone on the disabled list before, he has an easy delivery, and his low velocity seems to be partially by choice. He doesn't push his arm harder than he has to and thus looks like a virtual lock to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
If the Toronto Blue Jays do shop Buehrle this winter, they'll attract some interest from teams that aren't willing to pay market prices for mid-rotation starters. The catch there is that this could require the Blue Jays to eat the bulk of the lefty's $19 million salary to move him in a trade.
To do so, they'd need something good in return—certainly a controllable asset, and more than likely one they could plug right on to their major league roster. As such, a trade for Buehrle probably won't end up being a steal for any team that could pull it off.
Total
25. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Trade
77 of 101
Rumor Source: Andy Martino of the New York Daily News
Talent Outlook
Eric Hosmer only had a .716 OPS in 2014, but his excellent turn in the postseason (.983 OPS) had him looking more like the guy who authored a solid .801 OPS in 2013. That didn't happen by accident, as a late-season swing adjustment made him quicker to the ball and more able to hit for power.
If Hosmer holds on to that adjustment, he'll be a first baseman with power and a reliable glove. However, he was still largely a ground-ball hitter in the postseason, and ugly at-bats were more frequent than his results suggest. There's room for optimism, but Hosmer still has much to prove.
Durability Outlook
Taking on Hosmer in a trade would mean taking on his final three years of club control. It's a good thing, then, that he just recently turned 25 and has played in over 150 games in two of the past three seasons.
It's less of a good thing that the one exception is this past season, in which Hosmer was sidelined for a month by a stress fracture in his right hand. It didn't seem to bother him in the postseason, but you can't help but have some fear of lingering effects when it comes to hitters and hand/wrist injuries.
Value Outlook
Hosmer's track record and postseason paint him as a controllable star who's ready for a big breakout, so the Royals could set the price for him pretty high if they do decide to dangle him. A good bet would be a young top-of-the-rotation type who could take James Shields' place if he walks.
A deal like that would constitute a roll of the dice given that Hosmer is still more about potential than reality, but it would be a roll of the dice worth taking. Even if his solid 2013 season is the pinnacle of his talent, that's still pretty good.
Total
24. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Trade
78 of 101
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Yoenis Cespedes' 2014 production was not unlike his 2013 output, as he once again authored an OPS in the mid-.700s with over 20 homers. But 2014 might have been his best defensive season, as a series of highlight-reel throws helped earn him the approval of advanced metrics.
But Cespedes is not without his weaknesses. He's too much of a hacker to be a consistent on-base merchant, and he doesn't have the range in the outfield to match his arm strength. Looking back now, his peak exists in the past with the 2012 season, rather than in the future.
Durability Outlook
Cespedes' durability appears to be on an upward trend, as he's gone from 129 games in 2012 to 135 in 2013 to 152 in 2014. And with only his age-29 season due up, he should still be a couple years away from his decline phase.
But Cespedes' durability does come with some strings attached. Though he doesn't hit the DL that often, nagging injuries are a near constant with him. It's possible that his durability could take a step back in his final year before free agency in 2015.
Value Outlook
If the Boston Red Sox deal Cespedes, it will presumably be so they can acquire a much-needed piece for their starting rotation. And since he has right-handed power and a modest $10.5 million salary for 2015, they may be able to command a controllable mid-rotation starter or a one-year ace rental in a straight-up swap.
That would seem like a fair price to pay for one season of a guy with superstar talent. But Cespedes isn't actually a superstar, and his complicated contract would bar his new team from a shot at draft-pick compensation when he hits free agency after 2015. A deal for him could backfire.
Total
23. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Free Agent
79 of 101
Talent Outlook
Hanley Ramirez followed a dominant 2013 season with a less-dominant 2014, with his OPS dropping from 1.040 to .817 and his homers dropping from 20 to 13. Even still, those are very good offensive numbers for a shortstop, and Ramirez packs as much raw pop as any other player at the position.
And yet, Ramirez is at an age (31 in 2015) where you have to worry about him coming back down to earth against hard pitches in 2014. Then there's the reality that he shouldn't stick at shortstop, as he has a modest defensive skill set and an interest level that seems to come and go.
Durability Outlook
This is where things get really iffy, as Ramirez has basically only had one healthy season since 2010. His injury history has become awfully crowded in the last four years, with his more recent issues including shoulder, leg, hand and abdomen troubles in 2014.
An injury history like that is hard to ignore in light of Ramirez's age. Then there's how he's spent virtually his whole career at a demanding position and has further exerted himself with tons of action on the basepaths. In a long-term deal, his durability is no sure thing.
Value Outlook
At a time when good right-handed bats are in short supply, the suitors are going to be lining up for Ramirez. His ties to draft-pick compensation will limit his market somewhat, but it will be a shocker if he doesn't get at least a five-year deal in the range of $100 million.
And I just don't know about that. Banking on Ramirez means banking on his offensive upside. Considering he's had three non-dominant offensive seasons out of four and that he comes with defense and durability question marks, that would be a roll of the dice.
Total
22. Alexei Ramirez, SS, Trade
80 of 101
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com and Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Alexei Ramirez rebounded from a sub-.700 OPS in 2012 and 2013 to finish at .713 in 2014. He also hit 15 homers and stole 21 bases, all while playing better defense at short than the advanced metrics gave him credit for. All told, it was his best all-around season in several years.
Another just like it in the last guaranteed year of his contract is probably asking too much, especially knowing that he's still very much limited as a hitter. But he's at least gotten less aggressive, and even a roughly league-average bat and his speed and defense would make him a valuable asset.
Durability Outlook
Ramirez has played in exactly 158 games in each of the last four seasons and has averaged 153 games during his seven-year career. For a player at a physically demanding position like shortstop, this is remarkable stuff.
And with no real injury red flags on Ramirez's track record, the only worry about his durability is that he's due. At 33 years old with lots of mileage on his body, it's indeed possible that he is.
Value Outlook
If the Chicago White Sox are willing to shop Ramirez this winter, the team will be dangling an attractive shortstop option for clubs in win-now mode. And since his $10 million salary for 2015 is no big hurdle, it's conceivable that the White Sox could get a solid young arm or bat in return.
Ramirez couldn't justify a deal like that by producing eye-popping numbers. But with his hitting, defense and durability outlooks all reasonably solid, he could quietly be worth it. In that case, his 2016 team option would mean another year of club control to further justify the trade.
Total
21. Brandon McCarthy, SP, Free Agent
81 of 101
Talent Outlook
Brandon McCarthy went from a 5.01 ERA with the Arizona Diamondbacks to a 2.89 ERA with the New York Yankees. He helped his cause by relying less on his sinker and displaying a more unpredictable pitch selection, all while maintaining his superb ability to locate his spots. He also benefited from an unexpected velocity spike.
I'm skeptical about whether that velocity spike can last into next season, when he'll be 31. Even still, you can go far if you mix your pitches, hit your spots and get ground balls like he can. The next few steps into McCarthy's 30s shouldn't kill his effectiveness.
Durability Outlook
For the first time in his career, McCarthy made over 30 starts and hit the 200-inning plateau in 2014. He always had it in him to do that, but injuries kept getting in the way.
That's certainly a concern going forward. Even if you disregard the horrible scene that unfolded in Oakland in the fall of 2012, this is still a guy with a laundry list of shoulder problems in his past. A short-term deal is likely, but his durability is still something to be skeptical of.
Value Outlook
After signing for two years and $15.5 million two winters ago, McCarthy will go sans draft-pick compensation onto a market where the going rate for a solid pitcher is now eight figures a year. And after finding his rhythm with the Yankees, somebody may go as far as three years on him.
It will be a risky venture based on McCarthy's durability outlook, but something like three years and $30 million-$35 million is a gamble worth taking on a guy who's capable of pitching like a No. 2.
Total
20. Miguel Montero, C, Trade
82 of 101
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
It doesn't look all that impressive that Miguel Montero finished with a .699 OPS in 2014, but that's slightly misleading. His OPS was as high as .740 as late as Sept. 4, which was the result of a more contact-oriented approach and good bat control. And once again, he hit for some solid power.
One thing worth worrying about is that Montero is now vulnerable against heat in the strike zone, but he still has the look of a solid offensive catcher. He's more than solid defensively, meanwhile, with an accurate arm and framing skills that rank among the very best. All told, he's better than you think.
Durability Outlook
It's a heck of a good look that Montero has played in at least 136 games in three of the past four seasons, and a good sign that 2014 was quite a healthy season after his 2013 was beset by a bad back. By catcher standards, they don't make many workhorses like Montero.
Of course, that's the good and the bad. Montero has racked up a lot of miles in recent seasons, and those miles could easily be felt in his age-32 season and beyond. With him under contract for three more seasons, his durability is somewhat of a question mark.
Value Outlook
If Ken Rosenthal is right about the Arizona Diamondbacks shopping Montero, the idea is probably to pick up starting pitching. Montero's talent will attract suitors willing to give up a solid controllable arm or two, but taking on a good chunk of the $40 million he is still owed might also be a part of the deal.
As such, he's a good player who could come at a pretty high price. But while the popular perception of a blockbuster with him as the centerpiece could be negative, his mix of solid offense, strong defense and good durability could actually allow him to hold up his end of the bargain.
Total
19. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Free Agent
83 of 101
Talent Outlook
Pablo Sandoval was just OK in 2013, to the tune of a .758 OPS, and he regressed a little more to post a .739 mark in 2014. That's still above-average production by today's standards, however, and Sandoval played a mean third base while he was at it. As of now, he's a good two-way player.
At the same time, Sandoval's 2014 season was mostly a reminder that his free-swinging style makes him prone to inconsistency. His in-game power is also inconsistent, and he's a switch-hitter who's nothing special from the right side. Basically: He's not quite as good as he looks when October comes.
Durability Outlook
The biggest feather in Sandoval's cap here is that he hasn't even hit his age-28 season yet. Beyond that, it's a darn good look that he played in 157 games in 2014, and his excellent play at third base reflected how he was in pretty good shape by his standards.
But there's another question mark. Even when Sandoval was in solid shape by his standards in 2014, he still resembled a bad-body player. That and the injuries that marred his 2011-2013 campaigns make it tough to count on lasting durability even despite his young age.
Value Outlook
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says Sandoval is seeking a $100 million contract, with Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle saying the target length is six years. His ties to draft-pick compensation will make it tough for him to get that, but his reputation and recent postseason heroics make something like Adrian Beltre's five-year, $80 million contact a realistic starting point.
In other words, he's bound to be drastically overpaid. As much as everyone wants Sandoval to be his superstar postseason self, his real self is an inconsistent hitter who probably won't age well.
Total
18. Chase Headley, 3B, Free Agent
84 of 101
Talent Outlook
Rather than the guy who had a .651 OPS in San Diego in 2014, Chase Headley is more like the guy who had a .768 OPS in New York. He boosted his contact and line-drive rates this season, all while remaining disciplined at the dish and playing excellent defense at third base.
With his age-31 season due up, these talents should remain strong for a couple of more years. But don't expect the plus power that Headley flashed in 2012 to ever come back. He hasn't come close to that kind of power in any other year, and power is hardly guaranteed to come with age.
Durability Outlook
Another thing Headley did in 2012 was play in 161 games, but he played in only 141 games in 2013 and 135 in 2014. Thumb and back injuries held him aside in 2013, and he was nagged by leg and back issues in 2014.
This isn't the best track record for a guy who's now on the wrong side of 30 to have, and you do wonder if the nagging injuries will stop. Headley's not young anymore, and he already seems to be paying for his extra efforts on defense and on the basepaths earlier in his career.
Value Outlook
Headley doesn't come without red flags, but his resurgence with the Yankees should have teams lining up at the thought of buying a switch-hitter who can play the heck out of third base. And with no ties to draft-pick compensation, something like a four-year deal worth around $50 million is realistic.
If so, a deal like that would be just the right combination of a dollar amount Headley could live up to and length that likely wouldn't cover Headley's worst decline years. It would be a solid deal.
Total
17. Francisco Liriano, SP, Free Agent
85 of 101
Talent Outlook
Francisco Liriano's 2014 season wasn't as wildly successful as his 2013 season, but he sure ended it on a high note. In his last 15 starts, he had a 2.40 ERA with 98 strikeouts in 90 innings. That's largely a good reflection of how filthy his stuff still is, as he still boasts a 92-93 mph heater with an elite changeup and slider.
Now that he's 31, Liriano may not be throwing 92-93 for much longer. The bright side of that is he throws his secondaries more than his heat anyway and has shown he can be successful doing so. The downside is his already poor control will only get worse if he uses his secondaries even more.
Durability Outlook
Fun fact: Liriano has never pitched over 200 innings in a season. He doesn't have a pitch-count-friendly approach, and he's also no stranger to injuries. He had Tommy John surgery back in 2007 and has also dealt with shoulder issues on occasion.
So, no, don't expect teams to be lining up to sign Liriano to a long-term deal. Based on both his talent and durability outlooks, that just wouldn't be a good idea.
Value Outlook
After his successful rebirth with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Liriano should be able to do a lot better than the low-risk, one-year deal they gave him. But not too much better, as his ties to draft-pick compensation should result in a discounted deal. Something like three years and $36 million is a good bet.
Even if a team were to lose a first-round pick to make a deal like that, it could still come out ahead in the end. If Liriano is able to stay healthy, the odds of him pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter for the next few years are pretty good.
Total
16. Yasmani Tomas, OF, International Free Agent
86 of 101
Talent Outlook
As with all Cuban defectors, there's an element of mystery with Yasmani Tomas. The word from Ben Badler of Baseball America, however, is that he has plus raw power from the right side of the plate. Also, FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel is of the mind that Tomas has the goods to be at least an average hitter.
Along with plenty of offensive upside, Tomas is young. He'll only be 24 on Opening Day in 2015. But since he doesn't have much to offer in the speed and defense departments, don't expect him to flash the all-around talent of fellow countrymen Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig.
Durability Outlook
There's no detailed injury history available for Tomas, but Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald is one of several to mention a shoulder injury that seemed to sap Tomas' power in the 2012-2013 Cuban National Series season. Since shoulder injuries have indeed been known to do that, it's something to be wary of.
Even still, Tomas' durability outlook is hardly worth panicking over. Beyond only being (just about) 24 years old, that the Cuban National Series doesn't feature as many games as MLB per season means his body is pretty well preserved. How he'll hold up isn't something teams should be too concerned with.
Value Outlook
A September report from Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe suggests that Tomas could command as much as $100 million in a long-term contact. Because he has youth, right-handed power and no ties to draft-pick compensation, that may be realistic.
As absurd as that sounds, knowing that Tomas hasn't played a single MLB game yet, we have enough evidence that shows elite Cuban players can make it in MLB. Just as important is that Tomas is a long, long way away from his decline years.
Total
15. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Free Agent
87 of 101
Talent Outlook
After a 3.32 ERA in 2012 and a 3.31 ERA in 2013, Hiroki Kuroda slipped a bit to a 3.71 ERA in 2014. But his performance was otherwise par for the course, as he once again got by on ground balls and a fair number of whiffs on sliders and splitters below the zone.
And while Kuroda may be headed for his age-40 season, he's still sitting around 91 mph and commanding the ball well. Even if he does suffer a velocity loss, he used his secondaries more than his heat in 2014. That shows he's already prepared not to lean on his heat if it does go awry.
Durability Outlook
Kuroda fell one inning shy of 200 in 2014. But in making it to 199, he made it five straight seasons with at least 196 innings. That's pretty good for anyone, let alone a guy his age.
Sure, you can't take much for granted with 40-year-old pitchers. But Kuroda's clean injury history and smooth, low-effort delivery make it a bit easier to bank on him staying healthy for what would surely be his last major league season in 2015.
Value Outlook
It's still up in the air whether Kuroda will come back in 2015. And even if he does, he'll presumably only play for the New York Yankees. And after making $16 million in 2014, it could take at least that much for them to bring him back.
Kuroda's a darn good pitcher, but signing him for that kind of money wouldn't exactly be a steal. He'd be more likely to underperform than he would be to overperform.
Total
14. Greg Holland, RP, Trade
88 of 101
Rumor Source: Joel Sherman of the New York Post and CJ Nitkowski of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
The 93 saves Greg Holland had over the last two seasons are nice, but the 1.32 ERA and 5.1 K/BB ratio he racked up are even better. He has better command than you'd expect for a guy with such a funky delivery and, of course, arguably the best fastball-slider combination in the business.
And that combination should get the job done for a while longer. With Holland's average velocity right around 96 mph now, the soon-to-be 29-year-old has plenty of heat. His slider, meanwhile, is on an upward trend as a swing-and-miss pitch.
Durability Outlook
Holland only has three seasons of heavy work under his belt, logging 60 appearances and 60 innings in each of the last three years. He's also only hit the disabled list once, and it wasn't with an arm injury. And with only his age-29 season due up in 2015, he's younger than most players available.
But no pitcher comes without injury concerns. In Holland's case, his delivery doesn't appear to make things easy on his shoulder. Also, his mix of high velocity and a slider-heavy approach don't make it easy on his arm.
Value Outlook
If the Kansas City Royals follow CJ Nitkowski's advice and dangle Holland on the trade market this winter, they'll be dangling a top-10 reliever with two years of club control left. As such, he could probably bring back a young, controllable starter or a solid bat.
That and the pay raise Holland is due in arbitration will make trading for him a costly investment. He's so good, however, that he could probably at least justify his new team bringing him aboard.
Total
13. Ben Zobrist, 2B/UTIL, Trade
89 of 101
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Ben Zobrist isn't the player he once was, but he was still good enough to post a .749 OPS with 10 homers and 10 steals while continuing to play quality defense at several positions in 2014. Add in the fact that he's a switch-hitter, and he still has the look of baseball's ultimate versatile player.
And even with Zobrist's offensive production having fallen from its peak, he's continued to be an extremely discerning hitter with a strong contact habit. He also projects well defensively, as his defensive game is based more on instincts than on sheer athleticism. In all, there's still a lot to like.
Durability Outlook
By playing in 146 games in 2014, Zobrist made it six straight seasons of at least that many games played. His body has behaved along the way, as his stint on the disabled list with a thumb injury in 2014 was his first since 2008.
Even still, Zobrist's past durability is only worth so much in anticipation of his walk year in 2015. It's going to be his age-34 season, and you do worry if six straight years of a heavy and well-rounded workload will catch up with him.
Value Outlook
Zobrist may only have one year left before free agency, but he's a versatile talent who's only owed $7.5 million in 2015. He will attract interested parties if the Tampa Bay Rays dangle him, and it's within reason that he could be used to replenish the team's supply of young pitching.
That wouldn't be a small price to pay for just one year of Zobrist, so he'd have to be his typical self in that one year to even justify the deal. Fortunately, the odds of that happening are reasonably strong.
Total
12. Justin Upton, OF, Trade
90 of 101
Rumor Source: David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Mark Bowman of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Justin Upton followed a strong 2013 with an even better 2014, posting an .833 OPS and hitting 29 homers. He tried out a more aggressive approach that didn't quite fix his swing-and-miss habit, but his excellent production against off-speed stuff is a testament to how well he stayed back on the ball.
Since Upton's only headed for his age-27 season, he should have no problem keeping the loud contact coming in his final year before he hits free agency in 2016. He's also at least a solid defender in left field. So while he has his limitations, he absolutely deserves to be valued as a star-level player.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 154 games in 2014, Upton has now played in at least 150 contests in each of the last four seasons. To find the last time he was on the DL, you have to go back to 2009.
If there's a catch, it's that Upton has more mileage on his body than your average 27-year-old. And though he hasn't hit the DL in a while, he hasn't quite been injury-free, with an assortment of nagging setbacks in recent years. Even still, Upton remaining durable in 2015 is beyond a good bet.
Value Outlook
With right-handed power in short supply, Upton is an awfully valuable trade chip for the Atlanta Braves. That he's owed a reasonable $14.5 million in 2015 doesn't hurt. As such, the Braves would have a couple legs to stand on if they were to demand a couple pieces of controllable talent for one year of Upton.
Upton would need to live up to his potential in that one year to justify such a big investment. Fortunately, there's no reason he wouldn't be able to do that.
Total
11. Russell Martin, C, Free Agent
91 of 101
Talent Outlook
Russell Martin was legitimately among the very best players in baseball in 2014. Beyond using his excellent batting eye and strong contact skills to author a .402 OBP, he hit 11 home runs and played superb defense behind the plate. Beyond owning the running game, he was also a top-five framer.
Mind you, Martin probably doesn't have another .400 OBP in him, as he enjoyed a bit too much success on balls in play. But his batting eye should stay strong, and he should continue to offer some power, all while continuing to play superb defense at the most important position on the field.
Durability Outlook
Martin has played nine big league seasons, and he's played in at least 111 games in eight of them. The only time he didn't was when he missed two months with a broken hip in 2010.
But despite his track record, Martin invites concern over his durability. Hamstring issues here and there in 2014 suggest he's already feeling his many years of action, and a long-term deal will cover what's left of his early 30s and a portion of his mid-30s. There will be some risk involved.
Value Outlook
The talent gap between Martin and the other catchers on the free-agent market is hilariously large, and no realistic trade candidate can match his talent either. So even with ties to draft-pick compensation, he should make a killing this winter.
He's not likely to get Brian McCann money. A better bet is something like four years at around $12 million to $14 million per year. Since Martin was probably worth twice that much in 2014, he could more than live up to such a deal even if he were to suffer an inevitable regression.
Total
10. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Trade
92 of 101
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
Troy Tulowitzki has been a lethal offensive force over the last two seasons, hitting .323 with a .974 OPS and 46 homers. No wonder, as he's authored a fine mix of patience and contact with lots of hard-hit balls. As such, it almost comes off as a bonus that he's also played terrific defense at short.
Granted, a move away from Coors Field would knock Tulo's offensive game down a peg or two. He also really shouldn't remain at shortstop for much longer. All the same, he should still have a few more prime years left, and his is the kind of talent that plays well at any park and at any position.
Durability Outlook
It's not pretty. Tulowitzki hasn't even hit his age-30 season yet, but he's played in under 100 games in two of the last three seasons. Groin surgery ended his 2012 season early, and hip surgery ended his 2014 season early.
If Tulo is traded, his new team would have to seriously consider moving him off shortstop sooner rather than later for the sake of saving his lower half from further damage. But even then, Tulo's track record makes it easy to be skeptical about the injury bug leaving him alone.
Value Outlook
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rockies are only going to trade Tulo "for returns that would reflect [his] contributions when healthy." That would be a handful of elite prospects and/or controllable talent, and you have to figure the Rockies would also try to unload most of the $114 million Tulowitzki is still owed.
In other words, the asking price is huge. And while there's no question Tulowitzki could live up to a blockbuster trade if he stays healthy and staves off decline over the six guaranteed years he has left on his contract, but that's asking an awful lot. He's really good, but he's not superhuman.
Total
9. Jason Heyward, OF, Trade
93 of 101
Rumor Source: David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Mark Bowman of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Jason Heyward was barely an above-average offensive producer in 2014, OPS'ing just .735 with 11 home runs. His approach is fine, as it features a decent mix of discipline and contact. But his swing limits his potential, as really anything above the knees has a good chance of beating him.
It's a good thing, then, that Heyward doesn't need to be a great hitter to be a great player. He's an underrated baserunner and is unquestionably the best defensive right fielder in the business. And with only his age-25 season due up, he should have one last great season left before free agency.
Durability Outlook
Heyward has played in at least 149 games in two of the last three seasons, and it's actually difficult to point to his 2013 season as evidence that he's injury-prone. He only played in 104 games, but that was because of appendicitis and a wayward pitch that broke his jaw. Hardly wear-and-tear injuries, those.
And did we mention that Heyward is only 25? Yeah, durability isn't a question heading into his walk year.
Value Outlook
If the Braves decide to dangle Heyward this winter, they'll be dangling arguably the game's best right fielder. And one who's only owed $7.8 million in 2015, to boot. They could certainly get some controllable talent in exchange for him.
That would be a high price to pay for what could ultimately be only one year of Heyward's services. But since the odds of him being a superstar-level player in that one year are good, it would be a defensible deal.
Total
8. Ervin Santana, SP, Free Agent
94 of 101
Talent Outlook
Ervin Santana's ERA rose from 3.24 in 2013 to 3.95 in 2014, but never mind that. That he was less homer-prone while upping his K/9 from 6.9 to 8.2 reflects how he improved. At the heart of it all was how he was still throwing 92-93 mph while adding a swing-and-miss changeup to his swing-and-miss slider.
This is a good sign. The soon-to-be 32-year-old's velocity may go sooner rather than later, but he's more of a complete pitcher now than he's ever been before. That will help him remain effective as he ages.
Durability Outlook
It's only because Santana got a late start to 2014 that he fell short of another 200-inning season. As it is, he's pitched at least 196 innings in four out of five seasons. That he's been able to keep the elbow issues he had in 2009 at bay has certainly helped, and relying less on his slider may keep them away.
Yet, it is scary that Santana is almost 32 with over 1,900 big league innings on his arm. That puts him right there with James Shields (more on him in a moment) in terms of workload, which isn't necessarily a good thing as far as his future is concerned. Just how many bullets does he have left?
Value Outlook
The qualifying offer had a hand in Santana settling for a one-year, $14.1 million offer from the Atlanta Braves last spring. So while he looks like an obvious candidate for a three- or four-year deal at around $15 million per year, his latest qualifying offer rejection could once again limit his market.
However, Santana may not be willing to do another one-year deal this time around. If not, it's possible he could be had on a discounted two- or three-year deal. Even with the durability concerns, he's a good target for a value buy.
Total
7. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Trade
95 of 101
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
After compiling a 4.10 ERA between 2012 and 2013, Jeff Samardzija turned a corner with a 2.99 ERA and 4.7 K/BB ratio across 219.2 innings in 2014. Finding the strike zone more consistently helped him cut down on his walks, and he maintained his status as both a good whiff and ground-ball artist.
Samardzija should still be good at these things in his final year before free agency in 2015. His improved command is partially the result of going to his hard stuff more often. Also, said hard stuff still has the velocity (94-95 mph) to help it miss bats, and an especially ground-bally sinker is now his primary fastball.
Durability Outlook
Samardzija didn't become a regular starter until 2012. After throwing 174.2 innings that year, he proceeded to throw 213.2 in 2013 and 219.2 in 2014. As a workhorse, he's trending upward.
That Samardzija is a hard thrower who will soon turn 30 might make you skeptical about how long he can keep it up. But knowing that he has a clean injury history, a sturdy 6'5" frame and relatively few miles on his arm, he's a much better bet to stay healthy than most pitchers his age.
Value Outlook
Even if Nick Cafardo is right about there being "no question" that Samardzija could be had this winter, it won't be easy to pry him loose. The Oakland A's are presumably planning on contending in 2015, so they probably won't be interested in giving him up unless they get talent that can contribute now.
Knowing Oakland's weaknesses, that could mean a shortstop to take Jed Lowrie's place or a powerful outfielder to fill the void left by Yoenis Cespedes' departure. If so, it's a good thing Samardzija's outlook for 2015 is so strong. It could cost a lot to get him, but it would mean getting an ace-level starter.
Total
6. Victor Martinez, DH/1B, Free Agent
96 of 101
Talent Outlook
Victor Martinez took a 2013 second half that featured a .361 average and .916 OPS and rode it right into 2014, hitting .335 with a league-best .974 OPS and 32 home runs. That's what you can do when you're an outstanding contact hitter who can crush the ball all over the yard.
It seems too good to be true, and it is, to a certain extent. But Martinez's dominance against hard pitches says his bat isn't slowing down, and his dominance against low pitches shows how well cut out he is for modern times. As such, it's a shame he can't play defense and is downright horrible on the basepaths.
Durability Outlook
Martinez missed the entire 2012 season recovering from a torn ACL, but he's otherwise been healthy enough to play in at least 145 games in 2011, 2013 and 2014. Presumably, it helps that his role as a full-time DH is preserving his body.
That and the reality that Martinez doesn't push himself running the bases make him a better bet to stay healthy than most guys his age. Which is good, because there's a decent chance his next contract will be for more than just a couple of years.
Value Outlook
The word from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com is that Martinez is seeking a four-yeal deal, but his age and ties to draft-pick compensation make a three-year deal more likely. A good guess is that he could get a modified version of Carlos Beltran's deal from last winter and make as much as $50 million.
That would be a good chunk of change for a guy who really only hits. Martinez is such a good hitter, however, that he could earn that money and then some even if he regresses from his 2014 numbers.
Total
5. James Shields, SP, Free Agent
97 of 101
Talent Outlook
James Shields was his typical self in his two years in Kansas City, posting a 3.18 ERA across 455.2 innings. He did the trick with characteristically good control, and he's also made the most of an early-30s velocity surge by turning into a fastball/cutter pitcher.
The worry there is that a guy who's about to turn 33 probably can't hang on to such a velocity surge for very long. That doesn't bode well, for while he has his trademark changeup to fall back on, it's gotten worse at missing bats. Once Shields' velocity goes, his effectiveness might, too.
Durability Outlook
That Shields has topped 215 innings in seven of eight seasons and has logged over 1,900 innings as a big leaguer says everything you need to know about his durability through the years. And indeed, his next trip to the disabled list will be his first.
Which means, yeah, it's hard to escape the notion that he's due. His right arm has thrown an awful lot of pitches, and the ones in the last three seasons have been at high velocity while he's been on the wrong side of 30. So despite his remarkable track record, it's hard not to worry.
Value Outlook
In early October, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com noted that the thinking around the league was that something like $80 million over five years may await Shields on the open market. Something like four years and an option could be more like it, but something in the $80 million range does sound about right even with Shields' ties to draft-pick compensation.
That will make Shields cheaper than fellow aces Jon Lester and Max Scherzer. That would be awesome if he didn't carry the likelihood of slipping into a decline phase much sooner than them, but he does.
Total
4. Alex Gordon, OF, Trade
98 of 101
Rumor Source: Andy Martino of the New York Daily News
Talent Outlook
Alex Gordon's .783 OPS, 19 homers and 12 steals in 2014 were hardly numbers fit for a superstar, but his play in October showed why he is indeed a superstar. He adds superb defense to his strong traditional numbers, and he does a lot more on the basepaths than simply steal bases.
Not that Gordon's perfect, mind you. Any pitcher who can spin a good breaking ball has an easy way to beat him, and his uppercut swing isn't without holes. Nonetheless, he should have a couple more years of well-rounded play in him. Since his contract is running out (2016 club option), that would work out just fine.
Durability Outlook
Durability hasn't been an issue for Gordon in the last four seasons. He's played in at least 151 games in each one, and even nagging injuries have been relatively infrequent in the last three years.
That makes Gordon a good bet to stay on the field in the two years his remaining contract covers. Really, the only worry is that four straight years of heavy action will catch up to him. He is past 30, after all.
Value Outlook
It's not a given that the Kansas City Royals will trade Gordon, but Andy Martino says their payroll situation has the industry expecting them to be open to the idea. If they do, Gordon's status as an elite player who's owed a max of $25 million over the next two seasons will allow them to jack up the price.
It could cost a team a high-ceiling, MLB-ready youngster and a couple of top prospects to get Gordon, and all or most of his remaining contract could also be a part of the deal. But while that's a big asking price, the return could be two seasons of one of the best players in baseball.
Total
3. Cole Hamels, SP, Trade
99 of 101
Rumor Source: Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com
Talent Outlook
Cole Hamels got a bit of a late start to 2014 but went on to pitch to a 2.46 ERA over 204.2 innings. His command was characteristically very good while his changeup was again excellent, and he also benefited from a velocity spike that made his heat harder to hit.
Whether Hamels can sustain that spike is doubtful now that he's on the wrong side of 30, but that might be moot. His increasing trust in his sinker means he can now give hitters different looks with his heat, and it gives him two ground-ball pitches to go along with his changeup. This is a guy ready to fight age.
Durability Outlook
Hamels' track record makes him out to be a lock for over 200 innings, as he's had only one season since 2008 in which he failed to reach the plateau. And overall, that he has close to 1,900 big league innings before his age-31 season is pretty impressive.
But it's also concerning, to a degree. That's a lot of work, and he hasn't quite been injury-free throughout the process. A bad shoulder delayed the start of his 2014 season, making it easier to notice the time he hit the disabled list with a bad shoulder in 2011. His aging process isn't guaranteed to be kind.
Value Outlook
Trading for Hamels won't be simple. The Philadelphia Phillies surely won't give him up without getting several pieces of controllable young talent in return, and they presumably aren't willing to eat much of the nearly $100 million he's owed over the next four years.
As such, it's going to cost a team to trade for Hamels. He'd justify the deal if he were to continue pitching like an ace, but it's hard to imagine him pitching well enough to qualify as a steal.
Total
2. Max Scherzer, SP, Free Agent
100 of 101
Talent Outlook
Max Scherzer didn't disappoint after his Cy Young-winning season in 2013, pitching to a 3.15 ERA and 10.3 K/9 across 220.1 innings in 2014. He succeeds because he has a 92-93 mph fastball headlining a four-pitch mix that also includes a lethal slider and changeup. He's also only getting better at throwing strikes.
Going forward, Scherzer's ever-decreasing use of his fastball helps alleviate some of the concern of an inevitable velocity decline. But at the same time, less velocity will still make him easier to hit, and continuing to increase the use of his secondaries could impact his command eventually. He may only be an ace at the beginning of what's going to be a long contract.
Durability Outlook
On the surface, everything looks good. Scherzer has yet to suffer a major injury as a big leaguer and has only been on the disabled list once. And while he's 30 years old, that he only has about 1,300 major league innings on his arm is hardly unreasonable.
And yet you do wonder about how Scherzer will age after pitching at high velocity for so many years. That and his funky delivery make it easy to be skeptical about the various minor shoulder issues he's had here and there. How long before a major shoulder injury finally surfaces?
Value Outlook
Scherzer reportedly rejected a six-year extension offer worth $144 million from the Detroit Tigers, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, so he'll presumably have it in mind to get at least that much on the open market. And that's doable. Despite ties to draft-pick compensation, a good guess is that the bidding will start at $150 million.
That's a lot of money, but it will be for a legit ace in the short term and a guy who could age reasonably well if his body doesn't betray him in the long term.
Total
1. Jon Lester, SP, Free Agent
101 of 101
Talent Outlook
In 51 starts since the 2013 All-Star break, Jon Lester has pitched to a 2.43 ERA and 4.00 K/BB ratio in nearly 350 innings. Mainly, good location got the job done for him in 2014. He was a master at pounding the outside edge against lefties and at playing with both edges of the zone against righties.
That allows for optimism for his future, as Lester effectively proved that hitting your spots is a fine trade-off for lost velocity. The best comparison for his future outlook might be Cliff Lee. That's a good thing.
Durability Outlook
Serious health problems derailed the early portion of Lester's career, but he's been healthy ever since. In making over 30 starts every year since 2008, he's only had to hit the disabled list once. That he has a smooth delivery has only helped.
Rather than his medical track record, the more pressing concern is Lester's age and workload. He'll soon be 31, and he has well over 1,600 big league innings on his arm if you count the postseason. There's a decent chance he could be a guy who's unbreakable right up until he's not.
Value Outlook
The last time Lester had a big contract offer come his way was when the Boston Red Sox reportedly offered him a four-year extension worth between $70 million and $80 million, according to Rosenthal. As a free agent without ties to draft-pick compensation, it's conceivable he could make around twice that in a five- or six-year deal.
Even still, Lester will likely come cheaper than fellow top free-agent pitcher Max Scherzer will. That whoever signs him will be getting just as good a product without giving up a draft pick is a bonus.
