B/R MLB Offseason 100: Ranking Top 15 Middle Infielders Available This Winter
After checking in with the top corner infielders available this winter, the B/R MLB Offseason 100 will now turn its focus to the middle of the diamond.
We've arranged a list of 15 middle infielders who figure to be available. Some belong to an admittedly weak class of free agents, but there should be plenty of good options available on the trade market. The names we've included come from either legit rumors or highly plausible speculation.
As for the scoring, the same formula used for starting pitchers and corner infielders applies:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook on their skills going forward. Think of 35 as a league-average player and 70 as an all-world, Mike Trout-like talent.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection on how players' bodies are going to hold up. Think of 10 as a tossup as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 signaling no concerns whatsoever. But to keep things fair, we'll only allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it's going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he'd be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a mega-bust and 10 being a mega-steal.
It all adds up to a possible total of 100 points. In the event of ties, the nod goes to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball. Also, a shoutout is owed to Baseball Prospectus for keeping such detailed injury histories.
That's all you need to know, so feel free to start the show whenever you're ready.
15. Alberto Callaspo, 2B/UTIL, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
After digging out a niche as a quietly solid player between 2009 and 2013, Alberto Callaspo only managed a .580 OPS while playing something of a part-time role with Oakland in 2014. On the surface, he has neither a good bat nor a good glove nor good speed to offer.
Which is mostly true, but not totally. Callaspo can offer an advanced approach that comes with an elite contact habit. He also offers defensive versatility, as he showed this past season that he can play second and first base in addition to third. In all, he's a solid player for a utility role.
Durability Outlook
Callaspo no longer needs to be durable enough to handle an everyday role. Which is good, because his injury history has seen him go on the disabled list with leg ailments in each of the last two seasons.
Even in a part-time role, Callaspo may not be done suffering injuries like that. He'll soon be 32 and has a decent amount of mileage on his body, with 843 games played since 2009.
Value Outlook
After the year he just had, Callaspo will be lucky if he's able to match his $4.875 million 2014 salary in a one-year deal. Something more like the $3 million pact that fellow utility man Kelly Johnson signed last winter is a better bet for his next contract.
Callaspo doesn't seem to have the skill set to turn an investment like that into a steal. But with his versatile glove and advanced plate approach, he could at least earn it.
Total
14. Aaron Hill, 2B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
After OPS'ing .860 from 2012 to 2013, Aaron Hill only managed a .654 OPS and 10 homers in 2014. This happened while he played typically shoddy defense at second base, making him look like a guy who's clearly declining as he heads toward his age-33 season in 2015.
It's not all bad, though. Hill never looked quite right at the plate, but he still managed a career-best line-drive rate and continued to pepper left field with well-hit balls. There's not much to be done about his defense, but his bat is a solid bet to be better than downright putrid going forward.
Durability Outlook
Hill has been limited to 220 games over the last two seasons, and overall he has played 140-plus games just once in the last five years. He's had problems with his legs here and there, and hand injuries have kept him out of action in the last two campaigns.
At his age, Hill's probably not going to get any healthier, especially if he sticks as a regular at second base, a position that's known to take a toll on players. A team banking on him to be durable in the next two years of his contract isn't the best idea.
Value Outlook
If the Arizona Diamondbacks choose to dangle Hill instead of one of their young middle infielders, they'll find his market limited by his poor 2014 and the $24 million he's owed through 2015 and 2016. Only if they eat some of that will they get something worthwhile (e.g. young pitching) in return.
Either way, it's hard to imagine Hill coming cheap. A team is going to either have to give up something real to get him or take on his remaining contract. And while he's a good candidate for a rebound after 2014, he's not that good of a candidate.
Total
13. Stephen Drew, SS, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Stephen Drew followed a strong overall 2013 season with a disastrous 2014, hitting just .162 with a .536 OPS after getting a late start due a drawn-out free agency period. He just never seemed in tune, swinging more aggressively than usual and struggling to find hits outside of the middle of the zone.
Drew is old enough to a point (32 in March) where you can't help but worry, but he still has merits. His defense at short remained strong for a second straight year in 2014, and he still showed off a fly-ball approach that produced some power. These things are worth betting on in a short deal.
Durability Outlook
It's been four seasons since Drew last played in over 150 games in 2010. A brutal ankle injury sidelined him for most of 2011 and 2012, and he fought some injury issues in 2013 before starting late in 2014.
The optimistic view is that Drew's late start in 2014 at least helped preserve his 31-year-old body. But even if that's true, it's hard to bet on him being durable going forward. He's past 30 with an iffy injury history and has spent his whole career at a physically demanding position.
Value Outlook
After the year he just had, it's doubtful that Drew will be able to get either a multiyear deal or a one-year deal at the $10 million salary he made in 2014. The best he can probably do is a one-year deal at around $7 million to $8 million.
That will be wasted money if Drew doesn't recover from his 2014 struggles. But since it's hard to imagine him being that bad again, that money would likely buy a decent offensive shortstop with a good glove.
Total
12. Jed Lowrie, SS, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
After OPS'ing .791 in 2013, Jed Lowrie regressed to post just a .676 OPS in 2014. That he was largely unproductive against good heat didn't help, which is a red flag with his age-31 season due up. And with poor range and subpar arm strength, he's really not a good fit for shortstop.
Hypothetically, that's an issue that could be resolved by moving Lowrie to second base. And for all his struggles in 2014, he maintained a strong batting eye and continued to elevate the ball frequently enough to hit for good power. As such, Lowrie is not without upside even after a rough 2014.
Durability Outlook
Lowrie was able to play in over 135 games in each of his two years in Oakland, but his reputation as an injury-prone player precedes him due to the assorted maladies he experienced in his first five seasons.
And indeed, Lowrie was hardly 100 percent healthy in Oakland either—particularly in 2014, when he spent some time on the disabled list with a bad finger in addition to dealing with assorted nagging injuries. At Lowrie's age, it's easy to be skeptical as to whether the injury bug will leave him alone.
Value Outlook
Even coming off a down season, Lowrie should do well this winter. With Jhonny Peralta and J.J. Hardy's contracts having recently set the market price for above-average shortstops at around $13 million per year, an average-ish shortstop like Lowrie might get $10 million to $11 million in a three-year deal.
It's not hard for a good-hitting shortstop to earn that kind of money. But considering the red flags on Lowrie's bat, his questionable durability outlook and the fact that he's not a good fit for short, a contract like that would be asking for more than he probably has to give.
Total
11. Didi Gregorius, SS, Trade
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Rumor Source: Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic
Talent Outlook
After ending his rookie season in 2013 in a bad slump, Didi Gregorius didn't improve in 2014. He hit just .226 with a .653 OPS, showing off only modest patience and contact and hitting more fly balls than he should be with his limited power.
That Gregorius isn't even 25 yet means there is some hope for his bat, but not much. The bigger attraction on the trade market will be his defense. The advanced metrics aren't crazy about it, but the eye test says he has good range and a plus arm. Those are things worth investing in.
Durability Outlook
A trade for Gregorius would mean dealing for him and the four years of club control he has left, so a big priority for him would be to remain durable. Fortunately, there's not much to be worried about.
Beyond still being very young, Gregorius doesn't bear many red flags. He hasn't shown any ill effects from an elbow injury he had during spring training in 2013 and has been largely healthy ever since. The only thing you really worry about is his body being beat up by the shortstop position.
Value Outlook
Nick Piecoro's column on Arizona's trade assets suggests that the Diamondbacks would most likely demand starting pitching in exchange for Gregorius. If so, they could probably find a team willing to swap a young starter with upside in order to bring Gregorius' upside aboard.
That could end up being a fair deal for both sides if Gregorius were to at least live up to his defensive potential. It would be tough to appreciate without good hitting, but there's plenty of value in having a plus defender at short year after year.
Total
10. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Asdrubal Cabrera failed to recover from his harsh offensive decline in 2014, following up a .700 OPS in 2013 with a .694 OPS in 2014. With an aggressive approach that doesn't have an answer for good heat and produces an abundance of fly balls, improvement isn't in the cards.
But Cabrera is not without things to offer. Four straight years of at least 14 homers means he still has good power for a middle infielder, and range and arm strength that don't play at short play pretty well at second. Heading into his age-29 season, these skills should stick for a few more years.
Durability Outlook
Despite the fact he's been an everyday player since 2008, Cabrera has actually only had one season in which he topped 150 games played. He's been reasonably durable but has generally been unable to keep the nagging injuries at bay.
This will probably continue to be par for the course. Cabrera may have youth on his side, but he's also spent his whole career playing demanding positions while also pushing himself on the basepaths. Expectations for his durability should be subdued to an extent.
Value Outlook
After making $10 million in 2014, Cabrera is hitting an open market that, due to a lack of options, could be willing to pay him that much per season in a multiyear deal. He's in line for at least a three-year contract in the $30 million neighborhood, and it wouldn't be a shock if someone gave him a fourth year.
Maybe that seems like a lot for a player as limited as Cabrera, but he could earn it. Middle infielders with his power aren't overly common, and his youth helps downplay some of his durability red flags.
Total
9. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Trade
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Rumor Source: Todd Zolecki of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
The 2014 season saw Jimmy Rollins rebound from a .667 OPS in 2013 with a .717 mark. His power resurgence was a big help, as he went from six homers to 17. And even at 35, he still managed to challenge the 30-stolen-base plateau with 28 thefts.
With Rollins suddenly overmatched against good heat, his 2014 production is likely as good as it's going to get. But he should have one more year of good power and speed left in him before he becomes a free agent after 2015, and the advanced metrics are right in thinking he can still handle himself at short.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 138 games in 2014, Rollins has now played in at least that many games in five of six seasons. And throughout his whole career, 2010 was really the only year in which health problems got in his way.
This is not to say Rollins' durability outlook is perfect, though. He did have some groin issues in 2014, including one that sidelined him for a good chunk of September. And with 14 years of heavy action preceding his age-36 season in 2015, he'll need to be handled with care no matter what.
Value Outlook
If the Philadelphia Phillies dangle Rollins this winter, the idea will presumably be to get young talent in exchange for him. Since the one year remaining on his deal is likely to attract contenders only, it's possible the Phillies will get what they want in a handful of prospects or one MLB-ready young player.
If so, it's the Phillies who would end up winning a deal like that. Rollins should have one more good year left in him, but one good year from him likely won't be good enough to justify a loss of young talent.
Total
8. Chase Utley, 2B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Todd Zolecki of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Chase Utley followed a solid .823 OPS in 2013 with a less solid .746 OPS in 2014, hitting only 11 homers and stealing only 10 bases on the side. And with his age-36 season due up, expecting his power or speed to get a boost isn't the best idea.
But Utley still has plenty to offer. He still combines good patience with a strong contact-making ability at the dish, and his compact swing is still good for solid contact. He's also still an excellent defensive second baseman. With these things, he can be a well-rounded player even without vintage power and speed.
Durability Outlook
Utley was able to play in 155 games in 2014, his most since playing in 156 back in 2009. This, of course, is both the good news and bad news.
You probably know what the bad news is all about. Utley ran into all sorts of injury problems between 2010 and 2013. One healthy season doesn't necessarily mean he's clear of the injury bug, especially at his age. Since taking him on means potentially taking on four more seasons, this is a concern.
Value Outlook
The Phillies will certainly look to get young talent in return for Utley if they dangle him. To this end, the three vesting options on his contract after 2015 could complicate things. Those mean that taking him on could translate to a $55 million payout instead of just a $10 million hit in 2015.
Still, reliable talent at second base is rare enough that some team might be willing to fork over a couple good young players to get Utley. In that case, he'd need to produce more than just one good season to justify the deal. With his age and durability concerns, I'm not so sure about that.
Total
7. Howie Kendrick, 2B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
Howie Kendrick made it three years out of four with an OPS of at least .740 in 2014, which is good stuff for a second baseman playing his home games at a pitcher-friendly park. He's an aggressive hitter, but one with good contact ability and the bat control to execute his opposite-field approach like clockwork.
Aside from his good hitting, Kendrick can also play a solid second base and offer some speed. But now that he's 31, there might not be much of that left. It's also unlikely he'll ever develop into a legit power threat. He's too much of a ground-ball hitter, and his power really only goes to right-center field.
Durability Outlook
Kendrick only has one more year to go until free agency, and it's a good bet that he'll remain durable for it. He's played in at least 140 games in four of the last five seasons, and his injury history is in good shape for a guy who's past 30.
Still, that Kendrick is past 30 is a red flag in its own right. That veteran second basemen have been known to fall apart in a hurry is another. So while he's a good bet to remain durable, he's not a sure thing.
Value Outlook
If Ken Rosenthal is right about the Los Angeles Angels possibly dangling Kendrick for pitching, a weak class of free-agent second basemen should allow them to jack up their asking price. A solid No. 3 starter sounds like a reasonable return.
Provided it's a free-agent-to-be-for-free-agent-to-be swap, a team could easily justify dealing away a good starter to get Kendrick. His decline years are coming, but he should have at least one more season of solid hitting, baserunning and defense left in him.
Total
6. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Adam Rubin of ESPN New York
Talent Outlook
Daniel Murphy finished 2014 with his average in the .290 range for a third straight season but was hitting over .300 as late as Sept. 10. It was legit, too, as he was hacking away more aggressively in the zone and hitting tons of line drives.
Murphy's bat shouldn't be in danger of slowing down with only his age-30 season due up in 2015. Also, he should have one more year of solid power and speed in him before free agency. Just don't expect good defense to be part of the package, as Murphy's is easily below average.
Durability Outlook
Murphy isn't even 30 yet and has played in 460 games over the last three seasons, which makes his durability outlook for his final year before free agency pretty good.
But his track record isn't flawless. Murphy did have to hit the disabled list with a leg injury toward the end of 2014, an injury that makes it easy to recall the series of knee setbacks he suffered in 2010 and 2011. He's a good bet to stay healthy in 2015, but not a lock.
Value Outlook
If Adam Rubin is to be believed, the ideal trade package for the New York Mets in a Murphy deal would involve an outfielder with some power. The Mets could probably get a player like that, but it would really be an outfielder with "some" power.
That doesn't mean Murphy wouldn't be worth giving up a player like that. If he has one more year of good hitting and baserunning left in him, he could hold up his end of the deal.
Total
5. Starlin Castro, SS, Trade
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Rumor Source: Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times
Talent Outlook
After a brutal 2013 that featured a .631 OPS, Starlin Castro performed more like himself in 2014, hitting .292 with a .777 OPS. And while it's not so good that his swinging-strike rate is climbing, his being a bit more discerning with his swings and more powerful are fine trade-offs.
Still, all Castro really succeeded in doing in 2014 was to get back to about where he was in 2011 and 2012. Even with his age-25 season still to come, it looks like his offensive floor and ceiling are the same thing. It's also only worth so much, knowing that he's nothing special on defense.
Durability Outlook
Castro had a pretty clean injury history right up until a high-ankle sprain sidelined him for pretty much the entire month of September this past season.
Even despite that, his durability outlook is still positive. Castro obviously has youth on his side, and one bad injury doesn't necessarily equal a trend. Beyond that, he's toned it down on the basepaths, which can only help preserve his legs through the five guaranteed years remaining on his contract.
Value Outlook
If the Chicago Cubs heed all the speculation and dangle Castro so they can clear space for their even younger shortstops, a good guess is that they'll ask for pitching in return. Most likely young pitching with lots of talent and as much or more club control as Castro.
That's a high price, indeed, and one that could conceivably be paid given that Castro has the youth and raw talent to inspire front office execs to dream big. But I'm not sure he could live up to a megatrade. The tools are there, but Castro hasn't done much to erase his shortcomings in four full seasons.
Total
4. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Hanley Ramirez followed a dominant 2013 season with a less dominant 2014, with his OPS dropping from 1.040 to .817 and his homers dropping from 20 to 13. Even still, those are very good offensive numbers for a shortstop, and Ramirez sure packs as much raw pop as any other player at the position.
And yet, Ramirez is at an age (31 in 2015) where you have to worry about him coming back down to earth against hard pitches in 2014. Then there's the reality that he shouldn't stick at shortstop, as he has a modest defensive skill set and an interest level that seems to come and go.
Durability Outlook
This is where things get really iffy, as Ramirez has basically only had one healthy season since 2010. His injury history has become awfully crowded in the last four years, with his more recent issues including shoulder, leg, hand and abdomen troubles in 2014.
An injury history like that is hard to ignore in light of Ramirez's age. Then there's how he's spent virtually his whole career at a demanding position and has further exerted himself with tons of action on the basepaths. In a long-term deal, his durability is no sure thing.
Value Outlook
At a time when good right-handed bats are in short supply, the suitors are going to be lining up for Ramirez. His presumed ties to draft-pick compensation will limit his market somewhat, but it will be a shocker if he doesn't get at least a five-year deal in the range of $100 million.
And I just don't know about that. Banking on Ramirez means banking on his offensive upside. Knowing that he's had three non-dominant offensive seasons out of four and that he comes with defense and durability question marks, that would be a roll of the dice.
Total
3. Alexei Ramirez, SS, Trade
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Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com and Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Alexei Ramirez rebounded from sub-.700 OPSs in 2012 and 2013 to finish at .713 in 2014. He also hit 15 homers and stole 21 bases, all while playing better defense at short than the advanced metrics gave him credit for. All told, it was his best all-around season in several years.
Another just like it in the last guaranteed year of his contract is probably asking too much, especially knowing that he's still very much limited as a hitter. But he's at least gotten less aggressive, and even a roughly league-average bat and his speed and defense would make him a valuable asset.
Durability Outlook
Ramirez has played in exactly 158 games in each of the last four seasons and has averaged 153 games during his seven-year career. For a player at a physically demanding position like shortstop, this is remarkable stuff.
And with no real injury red flags on Ramirez's track record, the only worry about his durability is that he's due. At 33 years old with lots of mileage on his body, it's indeed possible that he is.
Value Outlook
If the Chicago White Sox are indeed willing to shop Ramirez this winter, the team will be dangling an attractive shortstop option for clubs in win-now mode. And since his $10 million salary for 2015 is no big hurdle, it's conceivable that the White Sox could get a solid young arm or bat back for him.
Ramirez couldn't justify a deal like that by producing eye-popping numbers. But with his hitting, defense and durability outlooks all reasonably solid, he could quietly be worth it. In that case, his 2016 team option would mean another year of club control to further justify the trade.
Total
2. Ben Zobrist, 2B/UTIL, Trade
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Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Ben Zobrist isn't the player he once was, but he was still good enough to post a .749 OPS with 10 homers and 10 steals while continuing to play quality defense at several positions in 2014. Add in the fact that he's a switch-hitter, and he still has the look of baseball's ultimate versatile player.
And even with Zobrist's offensive production having fallen from its peak, he's continued to be an extremely discerning hitter with a strong contact habit. He also projects well defensively, as his defensive game is based more on instincts than sheer athleticism. In all, there's still a lot to like.
Durability Outlook
By playing in 146 games in 2014, Zobrist made it six straight seasons of at least that many games played. His body has behaved along the way, as his stint on the disabled list with a thumb injury in 2014 was his first since 2008.
Even still, Zobrist's past durability is only worth so much in anticipation of his walk year in 2015. It's going to be his age-34 season, and you do worry if six straight years of a heavy and well-rounded workload will catch up with him.
Value Outlook
Zobrist may only have one year left before free agency, but he's a versatile talent who's only owed $7.5 million in 2015. He will attract interested parties if the Tampa Bay Rays dangle him, and it's within reason that he could be used to replenish the team's supply of young pitching.
That wouldn't be a small price to pay for just one year of Zobrist, so he'd have to be his typical self in that one year to even justify the deal. Fortunately, the odds of that happening are reasonably strong.
Total
1. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Trade
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Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
Troy Tulowitzki has been a lethal offensive force over the last two seasons, hitting .323 with a .974 OPS and 46 homers. No wonder, as he's authored a fine mix of patience and contact with lots of hard-hit balls. As such, it almost comes off as a bonus that he's also played terrific defense at short.
Granted, a move away from Coors Field would knock Tulo's offensive game down a peg or two. He also really shouldn't remain at shortstop for much longer. All the same, he should still have a few more prime years left, and his is the kind of talent that plays well at any park and at any position.
Durability Outlook
It's not pretty. Tulowitzki hasn't even hit his age-30 season yet, but he's played in under 100 games in two of the last three seasons. Groin surgery ended his 2012 season early, and hip surgery ended his 2014 season early.
If Tulo is traded, his new team would have to seriously consider moving him off shortstop sooner rather than later for the sake of saving his lower half from further damage. But even then, Tulo's track record makes it easy to be skeptical about the injury bug leaving him alone.
Value Outlook
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rockies are only going to trade Tulo "for returns that would reflect [his] contributions when healthy." That would be a handful of elite prospects and/or controllable talent, and you have to figure the Rockies would also try to unload most of the $114 million Tulowitzki is still owed.
In other words, the asking price is huge. And while there's no question Tulowitzki could live up to a blockbuster trade if he stays healthy and staves off decline over the six guaranteed years he has left on his contract, but that's asking an awful lot. He's really good, but he's not superhuman.
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