B/R Offseason 100: Ranking Top 15 Corner Infielders Available This Winter
After getting started with the top starting and relief pitchers on the market this winter, the B/R MLB Offseason 100 will now turn to hitters with a look at the top corner infielders available.
We've arranged a list of 15 names. Most are free agents available for hire, but a few others are trade candidates pulled from rumors and/or highly plausible speculation.
As for the scoring, the same formula we used for starting pitchers applies:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as an all-world Mike Trout-like talent.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection for how guys' bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 signaling no concerns whatsoever. But to keep things fair, we'll only allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it's going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he'd be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a mega-bust and 10 being a mega-steal.
It all adds up to a possible total of 100 points. In the event of ties, the nod goes to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball. Also, a shout-out is owed to Baseball Prospectus for keeping such detailed injury histories.
That's all you need to know, so feel free to start the show whenever you're ready.
15. Ryan Howard, 1B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Buster Olney of ESPN.com
Talent Outlook
Ryan Howard had a season to forget in 2014, hitting .223 with a career-worst .690 OPS. That he performed admirably against left-handed pitching was a bright side, but he's hopeless against anything slow and is only becoming more vulnerable against hard-throwing righties.
Basically the only thing that's still respectable is Howard's power, which produced 23 homers in 2014. But with his power restricted to the middle of the field, there's a cap on its potential. So even the one thing keeping him relevant next to poor hitting, fielding and running comes with a red flag.
Durability Outlook
That Howard played in 153 games in 2014 is commendable, and certainly a nice change of pace after playing in 151 games combined between 2012 and 2013.
But beyond the fact that Howard really shouldn't be playing in so many games based on his ability, he doesn't project well over the next two years of his contract from a durability standpoint. He's a big-bodied, soon-to-be 35-year-old who's playing on a pair of banged-up legs.
Value Outlook
Even if Buster Olney is right about Howard being one of many Philadelphia Phillies players available this winter, moving him will be extremely tough. Given the circumstances, he's not getting traded unless the Phillies eat most of the $60 million he's owed while taking on (maybe at best) B-level prospects in return.
In a deal like that, Howard's new team would basically be getting him for free. Even then, his skills and durability have eroded to a point where he could still be a disappointment.
Total
14. Kendrys Morales, DH/1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Following a decent .785 OPS and 23 homers in 2013, Kendrys Morales got a late start to 2014 and never really got on track on his way to ultimately finishing with a .612 OPS in 98 games. His timing just never looked right, and his power decrease is an accurate reflection of how rarely he squared the ball up.
This is scary because there's nothing more useless than a DH/1B-type who can't hit, field or run. And outside of his power coming back at the end of 2014, Morales didn't do much to generate optimism for 2015. He has his track record, sure, but even with that he represents a huge roll of the dice.
Durability Outlook
Morales has been reasonably durable in recent seasons, playing in over 150 games in 2013 and suffering zero injuries after his 2014 season got off to a late start. If you want to be optimistic, you can say that the late start was a blessing in disguise for his 31-year-old body.
But there is a limit to how much faith you can put into Morales' durability. He's headed toward his age-32 season, and everyone remembers how his broken leg in 2010 sidelined him for nearly two full years.
Value Outlook
Last winter, Morales' ties to draft-pick compensation all but killed the market for his services. This winter, his market will be limited by his poor 2014 performance. The best he'll probably be able to do is something like a one-year "prove it" deal for around $5 million.
Even an investment as small as that could still end up being a waste if Morales doesn't recover from his 2014 struggles. And since there are few real assurances that he will, it's hard to suggest him as a value buy.
Total
13. Kelly Johnson, 3B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
In suiting up for three different teams in 2014, Kelly Johnson didn't quite fulfill his platoon role in only OPS'ing .653 against right-handed pitching. Beyond not hitting their slow stuff, he had a tough time swinging through high hard stuff against righties.
All the same, Johnson at least has some solid power to offer against right-handed pitching, and he's a good guy to have around for his defensive versatility. He mainly played third base this past season, but also logged time at first and second and in left and right field. As such, he's a decent bench option.
Durability Outlook
When Johnson hit the disabled list with a groin strain in 2014, it was his first DL stint since 2009 and only the third of his career. That gives you an idea of how his injury history is cleaner than most, which is a good thing for a veteran player just looking to hang on in the big leagues.
Still, Johnson is a soon-to-be 33-year-old with a lot of mileage on him, and the versatility he'll be asked to provide will ensure his part-time role doesn't take it too easy on his body.
Value Outlook
It only took $3 million for the New York Yankees to sign Johnson when he was coming off of a .715 OPS and 16 homers with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2013. After the year he just had, it's possible Johnson could be picked up for as little as $1 million.
Even then, Johnson outperforming such a measly contract would be no sure thing. But if he could once again provide versatility and a little power, that wouldn't be a bad price to pay to put him on the bench.
Total
12. Ike Davis, 1B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Andy Martino of the New York Daily News
Talent Outlook
Ike Davis is strictly a platoon player at this point, and his .360 OBP and 11 dingers against right-handed pitching in 2014 show how well he can handle the job. He certainly has the goods for it, as he combines a highly discerning eye at the dish with good power.
And yet, Davis does have his limitations. He's an obvious shift candidate with his ground-ball habit, his power is nowhere near as explosive as it once was, and he's a subpar defender at first to boot. He may only be 27, but his skills have eroded to a point where he's best off as a platoon DH.
Durability Outlook
Taking on Davis in a trade would mean taking on the final two years of club control he has left, so his durability prospects are of a slightly heightened importance. And to this end, that he's still young and coming off of an injury-free season is good news.
But Davis doesn't have a perfect injury history. An oblique strain cost him the final month of 2013, and an ankle sprain sidelined him for almost all of 2011. Then there was his odd bout with illness in 2012. Whoever trades for him would have to prepare for anything.
Value Outlook
When the New York Mets traded Davis to the Pittsburgh Pirates, all they got was a player to be named later and a Triple-A reliever. He improved in Pittsburgh, but not to a degree where the Pirates would be able to demand much more than that in a trade.
Davis could therefore be had in what would be a low-risk trade. Provided he's kept in a platoon role, it wouldn't take much for him to justify such a deal.
Total
11. David Freese, 3B, Trade
5 of 15
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
David Freese followed a modest .721 OPS in 2013 with a .704 OPS in his first season with the Los Angeles Angels. But he did finish stronger than he started, posting a .743 OPS in the second half that came largely thanks to an increase in power.
And yet, the red flags remain. Freese's descending average against 90-plus heat and ascending whiff rate against offspeed suggest his bat may be slowing down with his age-32 season due up. That would be an easier pill to swallow if his defense looked good, but it's mediocre at best.
Durability Outlook
After playing in a career-high 144 games in 2012, Freese played in 138 in 2013 and 134 in 2014. A broken finger did the bulk of the damage this past season, but he otherwise suffered through a typical assortment of nagging injuries.
And now Freese is at an age when health issues tend to become more persistent instead of less frequent. Though there are players with more red flags than him, he's not an especially good bet to remain durable.
Value Outlook
According to Ken Rosenthal's report, the Angels will most likely ask for pitching in return if they dangle Freese. Since he only has one year of club control left and is at best an average regular now, they may have to settle for a back-end or reclamation-type arm.
That's not exactly the baseball equivalent of an arm and a leg. But with Freese's iffy skill set, merely justifying a trade like that represents the best of what he could do.
Total
10. Billy Butler, DH/1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Since posting a career-best .882 OPS in 2012, Billy Butler has disappointed with a .787 OPS in 2013 and a career-worst .702 OPS in 2014. His biggest malady is declining power, but it's also not a good look that a more free-swinging approach in response to more aggressive pitchers didn't produce results in 2014.
Pitchers presumably aren't going to stop going after Butler until his power returns, and it's not a safe bet that it will. He's too much of a ground-ball hitter, and pulled balls in the air are becoming more infrequent. He's become a designated hitter who has, at best, an average bat to offer.
Durability Outlook
Butler's been a full-time DH since 2010, so his body is more well preserved than most free-agent position players. And at 28, he's also younger than most free-agent position players.
On top of all of this, he's played at least 150 games every year since 2009, and his next trip to the disabled list will be his first. That makes Butler's body type the only real concern about his durability going forward, but it's a minor concern in light of everything else.
Value Outlook
The Kansas City Royals turned down a $12.5 million option to make Butler a free agent. And since there may not be much interest in Butler outside of Kansas City, the Royals might be able to bring him back on a multiyear deal at a cheap price. Say, two years for $15 million with an option.
That would be a steal if Butler were to rediscover his power. But there's no guarantee of that regardless of where he ends up, so he's a good bet to be overpaid no matter what.
Total
9. Mark Reynolds, 1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Mark Reynolds posted the worst average (.196) and OPS (.681) of his career in 2014. That's what you risk when you continue to strike out a ton while asking for a low average on balls in play with an elevated fly-ball rate.
Reynolds has had these shortcomings his whole career. They're not going away now. But if all you want is some 20-homer power from the right side of the dish to go along with some quietly pretty good defense at first base, well, he's your Huckleberry.
Durability Outlook
That Reynolds hasn't played in more than 135 games since 2011 makes it look like he's wearing down as he prepares to go deeper into his 30s, but his workload hasn't been limited by a lack of durability. With only one disabled list stint in his career, it's more due to a lack of ability.
Beyond that, there's the fact that Reynolds doesn't play a physically demanding position. And the fact that he so rarely has to actually run the bases. Compared to most guys on the wrong side of 30, durability doesn't look like a clear issue with him.
Value Outlook
After signing a one-year, $2 million contract and playing reasonably well for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2014, you can expect Reynolds to be on the lookout for a pay raise. He might find one, but it will probably only be to the tune of $5 million or so in another one-year deal.
Reynolds' shaky skill set could make even a deal like that out to be an overpay. But given that he can at least stay on the field while providing power and solid defense, he could justify it well enough.
Total
8. Mike Morse, 1B/OF, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
After a disappointing 2013 season, Mike Morse bounced back to post an .811 OPS with 16 homers in 2014. He was still the same hyper-aggressive hitter he's always been, but the past season was a reminder that good contact comes easily from his brute strength. In turn, his numbers are easily inflated.
It wasn't all good, though. Morse's play in left field went to show why he should only play first base, and the disappearance of his power after the break is related to how he doesn't get the ball in the air consistently enough to maximize his power. Overall, there's only so much he can offer.
Durability Outlook
It says a lot about Morse's track record that he could be limited to 131 games in 2014 and still achieve the second-biggest workload of his career. For the most part, he just hasn't stayed healthy.
Of course, the injury bug did end up getting Morse in 2014. He was healthy through August, but then he suffered an oblique injury that sidelined him in September. With his age-33 season due up, his recent and overall injury history don't inspire much confidence.
Value Outlook
Morse received $6 million last winter despite coming off of a lost season in Seattle and Baltimore. Coming off of a strong bounce-back season, a good bet is that he'll land a two-year deal for around $20 million.
The idea behind a contract like that would be to pay for Morse's right-handed power, something that's in short supply these days. But knowing that he only has so much in-game power to go with a poor approach and (at best) questionable defensive, it's going to be an overpay.
Total
7. Mark Trumbo, 1B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic
Talent Outlook
Mark Trumbo's first season in Arizona didn't go so well. Beyond his injury difficulties, he managed just a .707 OPS while playing downright horrible defense in left field. There's no fixing that, and he's likely to always have a swing-and-miss approach with an infrequent line-drive habit.
Trumbo doesn't profile as poorly on defense as a full-time first baseman, however. That's presumably where interested parties will see him playing, and they'll also be interested in Trumbo's thunderous power. And with only his age-29 season due up, age is not yet a threat to that power.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 159 games in 2013, Trumbo was limited to just 88 games in 2014. A stress fracture in his left foot sidelined him for two months, and you wonder if playing him in the outfield had a hand in him developing the injury.
Either that, or Trumbo is prone to such injuries. Though not as severe, he suffered a stress fracture in his right foot back in 2011. So even though he has youth on his side, Trumbo's next two years of club control do come with some injury risk.
Value Outlook
If the Diamondbacks dangle Trumbo on the trade market, there's no way they're getting back what they gave up (Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton) to get him. Even with his power and the two years of club control he has left, the best the D-Backs can probably do for Trumbo is a No. 4-type starter.
In other words, he'll be a good buy-low candidate if the D-Backs put him on the market. He has his shortcomings, but getting two years of his power could more than justify a trade.
Total
6. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Andy Martino of the New York Daily News
Talent Outlook
The 2014 season was Mike Moustakas' third in a row with an OBP under .300, and he had just a .632 OPS. The hope with him is that the .817 OPS he authored in the postseason is something he can build off of. Since he worked good at-bats and took some good swings in October, maybe that's possible.
But then again, maybe not. Moustakas had a rather typical .259 OBP to go with his postseason OPS, so how much he actually changed is a good question. And if he hasn't changed, then we're still looking at a hitter with a bad platoon split who's also way too pull-heavy. He's also hit or miss defensively.
Durability Outlook
Since trading for Moustakas would mean taking on the three years of club control he has left, how durable he's going to be is a pressing concern.
Fortunately, things look good. Beyond only being 26 years old, Moustakas hasn't yet hit the disabled list as a big leaguer, and his injury track record really doesn't contain anything scary. That he has yet to play 150 games in a season frankly has little to do with his body misbehaving.
Value Outlook
If the Kansas City Royals do listen to offers like Andy Martino says they're expected to, now would actually be a good time to trade Moustakas. Rather than his inconsistency, teams could focus more on his solid postseason and be willing to fork over some young MLB-ready talent for him.
For a powerful third baseman with a couple years of club control left, that sounds like a fair deal on the surface. But with few guarantees that Moustakas can even be so much as an average regular, there's a decent chance he'll ultimately prove to be fool's gold if he's traded this winter.
Total
5. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
After a lost season in 2013, Adam LaRoche bounced back to post an .817 OPS and hit 26 home runs in 2014 to make it two years out of three with at least 25 homers and an .800 OPS. His mix of power and patience will appeal to clubs in need of a good bat at first base, and he's also a quality defender.
However, there is the worry of LaRoche's bat slowing down as he continues to age. To that end, that he had a difficult time with hard stuff away is a concern. He also really only had pull power in 2014, so there are already age-related flaws in his hitting that will likely only get worse.
Durability Outlook
In playing in 140 games in 2014, LaRoche made it eight out of 11 big league seasons in which he's played in at least that many games. And in spending his entire career at first base, he's stuck at a position that takes it pretty easy on the body.
These aren't guarantees that LaRoche will remain durable, however. He's soon going to be 35 years old, and he's dealt with a series of nagging injuries over the past three seasons. He could be a guy who's durable right up until he's not.
Value Outlook
Unlike the last time he was a free agent, LaRoche won't have to worry about ties to draft-pick compensation limiting his market this time around. And after living up to a $12 million salary in 2014, he's probably in line for a two-year deal that will land in the $25 million range.
A couple more seasons of an .800 OPS and 25 jacks would make that quite a good deal. But considering his age and red flags, hoping for a couple more seasons like that is probably hoping for too much.
Total
4. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Andy Martino of the New York Daily News
Talent Outlook
Eric Hosmer only had a .716 OPS in 2014, but his excellent turn in the postseason (.983 OPS) had him looking more like the guy who authored a solid .801 OPS in 2013. That didn't happen by accident, as a late-season swing adjustment made him quicker to the ball and more able to hit for power.
If Hosmer holds onto that adjustment, he'll be a first baseman with power and a reliable glove. However, he was still largely a ground-ball hitter in the postseason, and ugly at-bats were more frequent than his results suggest. There's room for optimism, but Hosmer still has much to prove.
Durability Outlook
Taking on Hosmer in a trade would mean taking on his final three years of club control. It's a good thing, then, that he just recently turned 25 and has played in over 150 games in two of the past three seasons.
It's a less good thing that the one exception is this past season, in which Hosmer was sidelined for a month by a stress fracture in his right hand. It didn't seem to bother him in the postseason, but you can't help but have some fear of lingering effects when it comes to hitters and hand/wrist injuries.
Value Outlook
Hosmer's track record and postseason paint him as a controllable star who's ready for a big breakout, so the Royals could set the price for him pretty high if they do decide to dangle him. A good bet would be a young top-of-the-rotation type who could take James Shields' place if he walks.
A deal like that would constitute a roll of the dice given that Hosmer is still more about potential than reality, but it would be a roll of the dice worth taking. Even if his solid 2013 season is the pinnacle of his talent, that's still pretty good.
Total
3. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Pablo Sandoval was just OK to the tune of a .758 OPS in 2013, and he regressed a little more to post a .739 mark in 2014. That's still above-average production by today's standards, however, and Sandoval played a mean third base while he was at it. As of now, he's a good two-way player.
At the same time, Sandoval's 2014 season was mostly a reminder that his free-swinging style makes him prone to inconsistency. His in-game power is also inconsistent, and he's a switch-hitter who's nothing special from the right side. Basically: He's not quite as good as he looks when October comes.
Durability Outlook
The biggest feather in Sandoval's cap here is that he hasn't even hit his age-28 season yet. Beyond that, it's a darn good look that he played in 157 games in 2014, and his excellent play at third base reflected how he was in pretty good shape by his standards.
But there's another question mark. Even when Sandoval was in solid shape by his standards in 2014, he still resembled a bad-body player. That and the injuries that marred his 2011-2013 campaigns make it tough to count on lasting durability even despite his young age.
Value Outlook
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says Sandoval is seeking a $100 million contract. His ties to draft-pick compensation will make it tough for him to get that, but his reputation and recent postseason heroics make something like Adrian Beltre's five-year, $80 million contact a realistic starting point.
In other words, he's bound to be drastically overpaid. As much as everyone wants Sandoval to be his superstar postseason self, his real self is an inconsistent hitter who probably won't age well.
Total
2. Chase Headley, 3B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Rather than the guy who had a .651 OPS in San Diego in 2014, Chase Headley is more like the guy who had a .768 OPS in New York. He boosted his contact and line-drive rates this season, all while remaining disciplined at the dish and playing excellent defense at third base.
With his age-31 season due up, these talents should remain strong for a couple more years. But don't expect the plus power that Headley flashed in 2012 to ever come back. He hasn't come close to that kind of power in any other year, and power is hardly guaranteed to come with age.
Durability Outlook
Another thing Headley did in 2012 was play in 161 games, but he played in only 141 games in 2013 and 135 in 2014. Thumb and back injuries held him aside in 2013, and he was nagged by leg and back issues in 2014.
This isn't the best track record for a guy who's now on the wrong side of 30 to have, and you do wonder if the nagging injuries will stop. Headley's not young anymore, and he already seems to be paying for his extra efforts on defense and on the basepaths earlier in his career.
Value Outlook
Headley doesn't come without red flags, but his resurgence with the Yankees should have teams lining up at the thought of buying a switch-hitter who can play the heck out of third base. And with no ties to draft-pick compensation, something like a four-year deal worth around $50 million is realistic.
If so, a deal like that would be just the right combination of a dollar amount Headley could live up to and length that likely wouldn't cover Headley's worst decline years. It would be a solid deal.
Total
1. Victor Martinez, DH/1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Victor Martinez took a 2013 second half that featured a .361 average and .916 OPS and rode it right into 2014, hitting .335 with a league-best .974 OPS and 32 home runs. That's what you can do when you're an outstanding contact hitter who can crush the ball all over the yard.
It seems too good to be true, and it is to a certain extent. But Martinez's dominance against hard pitches says his bat isn't slowing down, and his dominance against low pitches shows how well cut-out he is for modern times. As such, it's a shame he can't play defense and is downright horrible on the basepaths.
Durability Outlook
Martinez missed the entire 2012 season recovering from a torn ACL, but he's otherwise been healthy enough to play in at least 145 games in 2011, 2013 and 2014. Presumably, it helps that his role as a full-time DH is preserving his body.
That and the reality that Martinez doesn't push himself running the bases make him a better bet to stay healthy than most guys his age. Which is good, because there's a decent chance his next contract will be for more than just a couple of years.
Value Outlook
The word from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com is that Martinez is seeking a four-yeal deal, but his age and likely ties to draft-pick compensation make a three-year deal more likely. A good guess is that he could get a modified version of Carlos Beltran's deal from last winter and make as much as $50 million.
That would be a good chunk of change for a guy who really only hits. Martinez is such a good hitter, however, that he could earn that money and then some even if he regresses from his 2014 numbers.
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