B/R MLB Offseason 100: Ranking Top 10 Catchers Available This Winter
With both corner and middle infielders taken care of, the B/R MLB Offseason 100 will now head behind the dish for a look at the top catchers available on the winter market.
Our list of catchers includes 10 names. Most come from a weak free-agent class of catchers, so it's a good thing there are some interesting names to be found in trade rumors and/or highly plausible speculation.
As for the scoring, the usual formula applies:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as an all-world, Yadier Molina-like talent.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection about how guys' bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 signaling no concerns whatsoever. But to keep things fair, we'll only allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it's going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he'd be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a mega-bust and 10 being a mega-steal.
It all adds up to a possible total of 100 points. In the event of ties, the nod goes to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus and Brooks Baseball. Also, a shout-out is owed to Baseball Prospectus for keeping such detailed injury histories.
That's all you need to know, so feel free to start the show whenever you're ready.
10. Wil Nieves, Free Agent
1 of 10
Talent Outlook
Wil Nieves was quietly a .299 hitter over 103 games in 2012 and 2013, but couldn't keep it up in limited action in Philadelphia in 2014. He hit only .254 with a .270 OBP and virtually no power in 36 games, with most of his struggles happening against slow pitches.
With Nieves' bat bound to be well below average, he'll need his defense to earn him some looks this winter. That's fortunately a solid strength of his, as he's been decent at controlling the running game over the past two seasons and is also decent enough at picking up extra strikes with his framing.
Durability Outlook
Nieves spent a good chunk of time on the disabled list for the second time in three seasons in 2014. Beyond that, you have to have some built-in skepticism about a 37-year-old who's spent his entire career in the squat.
Granted, Nieves only has to stay durable for what would presumably be one year of part-time action. But at his age, even that's no sure thing.
Value Outlook
The Phillies picked Nieves up for barely over $1 million coming off of two solid offensive seasons. Now that he's coming off of something of a lost year that featured little offense, he might have to settle for a minor league contract with an invite to spring training.
That's pretty much the definition of a low-risk deal. But with Nieves, there's not a ton of reward outside of decent defense behind the dish.
Total
9. Nick Hundley, Free Agent
2 of 10
Talent Outlook
Nick Hundley hasn't had much luck being consistent since hitting .288 in 2011, batting just .216 with a .267 OBP in three seasons since. He's limited by an aggressive approach and too many whiffs, and he doesn't even profile as a good platoon catcher with a reverse split for his career.
Add in the reality that Hundley had a tough time controlling the running game in 2014, and he really only has a couple of things to offer. One is some power, and it's not for nothing that he showed some improvement at framing strikes in 2014.
Durability Outlook
Hundley has been reasonably healthy in playing in 197 games over the past two seasons. Before that, however, he had all sorts of injury problems in 2011 and 2012, missing time with an oblique strain and surgeries on his right elbow and knee.
This qualifies him as pretty beat up for a 31-year-old catcher. Even in what would more than likely be a part-time role in a short-term contract, he's no guarantee to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
The Baltimore Orioles declined a 2015 option that would have increased Hundley's salary from $4 million to $5 million. And rightfully so, as even paying him $4 million is a bit of a stretch.
And yet that's probably the target mark for the Orioles or some other team to aim for. With little offensive upside and modest defensive skills, Hundley wouldn't quite be a bargain buy.
Total
8. David Ross, Free Agent
3 of 10
Talent Outlook
After a rock-solid .770 OPS in 2012, David Ross has gone on to post a .681 OPS in 2013 and just a .629 OPS in 2014. Bat speed looks like it's becoming a real problem, as Ross is now easily beaten by anything over 90 miles per hour. Also, a bad swing-and-miss problem is only getting worse.
Problems like those may not get any better in what will be Ross' age-38 season in 2015, but his platoon split against left-handed pitching in the last two seasons says a strict platoon role could help. And even if there's nothing to be had from his bat, his excellent framing skills alone are worth investing in.
Durability Outlook
Though Ross has spent virtually his whole career as a part-time player, remaining durable hasn't been easy. Particularly in the past two seasons, as a pair of concussions sidelined him for a good portion of 2013 and he battled plantar fasciitis in 2014.
In light of both his recent injury history and his age, Ross' durability is a pretty big question mark.
Value Outlook
After making $3.1 million per year in a two-year deal with the Boston Red Sox, Ross could probably find a team willing to pay him that much money in a one-year contract if he decides he wants to play one more year.
Ross could more than earn an investment like that if he were stuck in a strict platoon role and continued to show off his elite receiving skills. But since him staying on the field is a question, him being worth even a small investment is no sure thing.
Total
7. J.P. Arencibia, Free Agent
4 of 10
Talent Outlook
J.P. Arencibia's reputation precedes him at this point, and there are plenty of numbers to back it up. He's a .189 hitter with just a .231 OBP over the past two seasons, and he's earned those figures by being a hugely undisciplined hitter with a swing-and-miss habit and an overly extreme fly-ball tendency.
Arencibia's also not much of a defensive catcher. But one silver lining there is that he's gotten better at framing strikes, and the silver lining with his bat will always be that he's at least a threat to hit the ball over the fence. He's not a good player, but Arencibia isn't without merits.
Durability Outlook
For all of the complaints that can be made about Arencibia's skills, he's at least been durable. The one and only disabled list stint of his career came in 2012 after he took a foul ball off his hand.
That Arencibia plays the most physically demanding position in the game is one reason for skepticism going forward. But in light of his clean injury history and the fact that he's only headed for his age-29 season, it's really the only reason for skepticism regarding his durability in the short-term.
Value Outlook
After earning $1.8 million through arbitration in 2014, it's a good question whether Arencibia can even make that much in free agency. He should catch on somewhere, but it wouldn't be surprising if he's unable to land a major league contract.
Arencibia's power and youth might work as reasons to argue for him as a good high-reward buy this winter. But with the kind of limitations he has, I'm not so sure about that.
Total
6. A.J. Pierzynski, Free Agent
5 of 10
Talent Outlook
A.J. Pierzynski has been a solid offensive catcher for a long time, but he's coming off of his worst offensive season. He hit .251 with only a .625 OPS in 2014, combining a severe power outage with his usual overly aggressive approach at the plate. He also continued to be a mediocre defensive presence.
Going forward, Pierzynski's best hope for a rebound is a more strict platoon role against right-handed pitching, which he hit reasonably well in 2014. Even if that's what he ends up with, asking for better defense and a power rebound in what will be his age-38 season is asking a lot.
Durability Outlook
Pierzynski's a 37-year-old catcher who has played in over 1,800 games across a 17-year career. By all rights, his body should be an utter mess by now.
But it's not. Pierzynski has only been on the disabled list twice, and he hasn't had to have anything surgically repaired during his major league career. Though none of this guarantees that he could remain healthy in a short-term deal, it's encouraging all the same.
Value Outlook
Pierzynski got $8.25 million in a one-year deal last winter when he was coming off of a .722 OPS. After the year he just had, he'll be lucky if he can find even half that much money in a one-year deal for 2015.
He could thus prove to be a value buy if he were to get back to hitting like he did in 2013. More likely, the best he can be is a passable option against right-handed pitching with subpar defense on the side.
Total
5. Geovany Soto, Free Agent
6 of 10
Talent Outlook
Geovany Soto hasn't been able to stay on the field that much in the past two years, and he's coming off of just a 24-game 2014 season that featured a .665 OPS. The big concern with his bat at this point is that he's pretty much overmatched against anything slow, which is an easy scouting report for pitchers.
But Soto does offer attractive talents. He has a terrific eye at the plate and can still handle fastballs, and his career platoon split says he's a good fit for a set role against left-handed pitching. Defensively, he's handy controlling the running game and a good receiver. These things make him worthy of a bench role.
Durability Outlook
Injuries have played a part in limiting Soto to just 78 games over the past two seasons, and overall his injury history includes surgeries on both knees and on his right (throwing) shoulder.
In short, he's about as banged up as you'd expect a soon-to-be 32-year-old catcher to be. Keeping him confined to a part-time role could keep him healthy going forward, but there's likely only so much a team can do to keep the injury bug at bay.
Value Outlook
Soto was paid only $3.05 million in 2014, and it's hard to argue that he raised his stock by playing in just 24 games and not really doing anything of note. If he lands another one-year contract, merely matching his 2014 salary might be the best-case scenario.
Soto's health would ultimately determine whether teams could justify even an investment as small as that. But if he were to play in even as little as half as many games as he did in 2014, he has enough talents to do the job.
Total
4. Carlos Ruiz, Trade
7 of 10
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe and Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News
Talent Outlook
Carlos Ruiz bounced back from a disappointing 2013 to post a .347 OBP and .717 OPS in 2014. The key was an advanced approach, as he excelled at both patience and making contact. He also continued to do a decent job controlling the running game and at keeping wayward pitches in front of him.
But Ruiz isn't without red flags. His struggles against 90-plus heat aren't a good look for a soon-to-be 36-year-old who didn't have much bat speed to begin with. And while he's solid defensively, getting extra strikes with framing still isn't one of his top talents.
Durability Outlook
Since 2007, Ruiz has played in over 100 games in every season except one. And in playing in 110 games in 2014, he showed he's more durable than a lot of catchers are by the time they get to be his age.
This is not to say Ruiz is indestructible, though. He's had to hit the disabled list once in each of the past three seasons, and he recently underwent surgery on his left shoulder, which had bothered him throughout all of 2014. With his age and track record, continued durability isn't a safe bet.
Value Outlook
Assuming Ruiz is one of many non-untouchables Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told Ryan Lawrence about, he could be a hot commodity on the trade market. He's owed at least $17.5 million in the next two seasons, but the lack of good free agent options could result in a trade that nets the Phillies the young talent and payroll relief they desperately need.
Such a deal would net Ruiz's new team a solid starter behind the dish, and he could justify the trade with two more seasons just like 2014. But knowing about the red flags, I wouldn't consider that a given.
Total
3. Evan Gattis, Trade
8 of 10
Talent Outlook
Evan Gattis followed up a breakout rookie season in 2013 with an even better year at the dish in 2014, posting an .810 OPS and hitting 22 homers. His aggressive and whiff-happy approach limit his OBP potential, but he has no problems making hard contact and has better bat control than you'd think.
But while Gattis is undeniably an above-average offensive catcher, his defense was an issue in 2014. He was at best a passable receiver, and otherwise had issues both controlling the running game and with wild pitches. The best home for him is with an American League team willing to use him at DH.
Durability Outlook
Gattis has the distinction of being both young (28) and well-preserved, as he only started playing minor league ball in 2010 before breaking into the majors in 2013.
But his durability isn't without question marks. Gattis has hit the disabled list once in both of his first two seasons and has consistently dealt with minor injuries. And while his 6'4", 260-pound frame is an asset in the power department, you do worry about that much bulk spending so much time in the crouch.
Value Outlook
If the Atlanta Braves oblige the speculation and dangle Gattis on the trading block, they'll be dangling a powerful catcher with four years of club control left. That's a valuable asset, and it's not hard to imagine the Braves getting back one or several equally valuable controllable players in return for Gattis.
A deal like that would leave a lot for Gattis to live up to, and his durability issues and other limitations make it out to be no guarantee that he would. But with right-handed power like his in short supply and his defense behind the plate occasionally competent, his new team would have to like its chances.
Total
2. Miguel Montero, Trade
9 of 10
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
It doesn't look all that impressive that Miguel Montero finished with a .699 OPS in 2014, but that's slightly misleading. His OPS was as high as .740 as late as Sept. 4, which was the result of a more contact-oriented approach and good bat control. And once again, he hit for some solid power.
One thing worth worrying about is that Montero is now vulnerable against heat in the strike zone, but he still has the look of a solid offensive catcher. He's more than solid defensively, meanwhile, with an accurate arm and framing skills that rank among the very best. All told, he's better than you think.
Durability Outlook
It's a heck of a good look that Montero has played in at least 136 games in three of the past four seasons, and a good sign that 2014 was quite a healthy season after his 2013 was beset by a bad back. By catcher standards, they don't make many workhorses like Montero.
Of course, that's the good and the bad. Montero has racked up a lot of miles in recent seasons, and those miles could easily be felt in his age-32 season and beyond. With him under contract for three more seasons, his durability is somewhat of a question mark.
Value Outlook
If Ken Rosenthal is right about the Arizona Diamondbacks shopping Montero, the idea is probably to pick up starting pitching. Montero's talent will attract suitors willing to give up a solid controllable arm or two, but taking on a good chunk of the $40 million he is still owed might also be a part of the deal.
As such, he's a good player who could come at a pretty high price. But while the popular perception of a blockbuster with him as the centerpiece could be negative, his mix of solid offense, strong defense and good durability could actually allow him to hold up his end of the bargain.
Total
1. Russell Martin, Free Agent
10 of 10
Talent Outlook
Russell Martin was legitimately among the very best players in baseball in 2014. Beyond using his excellent batting eye and strong contact skills to author a .402 OBP, he hit 11 home runs and played superb defense behind the plate. Beyond owning the running game, he was also a top-five framer.
Mind you, Martin probably doesn't have another .400 OBP in him, as he enjoyed a bit too much success on balls in play. But his batting eye should stay strong and he should continue to offer some power, all while continuing to play superb defense at the most important position on the field.
Durability Outlook
Martin has played nine big league seasons, and he's played in at least 111 games in eight of them. The only time he didn't was when he missed two months with a broken hip in 2010.
But despite his track record, Martin invites concern over his durability. Hamstring issues here and there in 2014 suggest he's already feeling his many years of action, and a long-term deal will cover what's left of his early 30s and a portion of his mid-30s. There will be some risk involved.
Value Outlook
The talent gap between Martin and the other catchers on the free-agent market is hilariously large, and no realistic trade candidate can match his talent either. So even with likely ties to draft-pick compensation, he should make a killing this winter.
He's not likely to get Brian McCann money. A better bet is something like four years at around $12-14 million per year. Since Martin was probably worth twice that much in 2014, he could more than live up to such a deal even if he were to suffer an inevitable regression.
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