B/R MLB Offseason 100: Ranking Top 20 Outfielders Available This Winter
With corner and middle infielders and catchers all taken care of, the B/R MLB Offseason 100 has one last stop to make on the position-player circuit: outfielders.
We have a list of 20 outfielders available on the winter market. Most of them come from what's a fairly strong class of free agents. Others are intriguing trade candidates plucked from rumors and/or highly plausible speculation.
As for the scoring, the usual formula applies:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook on their skills going forward. Think of 35 as a league-average player and 70 as an all-world, Mike Trout-like talent.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection on how players' bodies are going to hold up. Think of 10 as a tossup as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 signaling no concerns whatsoever. But to keep things fair, we'll only allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it's going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he'd be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a mega-bust and 10 being a mega-steal.
It all adds up to a possible total of 100 points. In the event of ties, the nod goes to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball. Also, a shoutout is owed to Baseball Prospectus for keeping such detailed injury histories.
That's all you need to know, so feel free to start the show whenever you're ready.
20. Andre Ethier, OF, Trade
1 of 20
Rumor Source: Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles
Talent Outlook
Andre Ethier is coming off the low point of his career. After he posted a solid .783 OPS in 2013, that number sunk to .691 in 2014. Also, he was essentially banished in the second half, starting in only 14 games and logging 93 plate appearances.
After a season like that, all Ethier has is his track record. A career .821 OPS makes it look strong, but he's a soon-to-be 33-year-old without a real home on defense and a severe weakness against left-handed pitching. And following a flat performance against righty hurlers in 2014, there's just not much there.
Durability Outlook
The best way to be optimistic about Ethier's 2014 season is that his body needed all that time off. He was pretty active in prior years, and it seemed to catch up with him when 2013 was marred by problems with his wheels.
All the same, Ethier's durability still invites skepticism. He's dealt with a lot of nagging injuries in recent seasons, and he's at an age (33 in 2015) when such things don't tend to go away. In light of the fact that his contract has three years left on it, the big picture isn't good.
Value Outlook
The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield is too crowded for a trade not to happen. And knowing that he was the odd man out in 2014 and that his contract ($56 million owed) is smaller than those of Matt Kemp ($97 million) and Carl Crawford ($62.3), Mark Saxon is probably right in thinking that Ethier is "the likeliest" of the Dodgers outfielders to be moved.
Saxon is also probably right in thinking that it would take the Dodgers eating a good chunk of the money Ethier is still owed while taking on spare parts for him to be dealt. In so many words: It's possible he can be had basically for free. That would mean a steal if Ethier turned back the clock and became an .800 OPS hitter again, but...yeah, not likely.
Total
19. Delmon Young, OF/DH, Free Agent
2 of 20
Talent Outlook
After OPS'ing just .705 between 2011 and 2013, Delmon Young enjoyed a renaissance with a .302 average and .779 OPS in 2014. He didn't need a platoon split to make it happen. He just always found the holes in the defense, particularly in pinch-hitting situations, going 10-for-20.
Can Young do it again? That's doubtful. He didn't stop being a swing-at-everything hitter with a whiff habit, and his .359 average on balls in play is too good to be true. He should be viewed as at best a league-average hitter with zero potential for baserunning or defensive value.
Durability Outlook
With Young's days as an everyday player presumably over, his durability is less of a priority. Factor in the reality that he's much more of a designated hitter than an outfielder, and it's even less of a priority.
But for what it's worth, Young's durability outlook is pretty good. He's still only 29 years old and hasn't shown any ill effects from right ankle surgery in late 2012. He also helped himself by getting in good shape for 2014. If he keeps that up, he'll be fine in a short-term deal.
Value Outlook
The Baltimore Orioles only paid Young a $1 million salary in 2014. After teasing a return to form last season, he should be able to do better than that in free agency this winter.
But not a lot better, as clubs aren't going to be in much of a rush to sign a part-time hitter with no speed and a bad glove. He might get $3 million or $4 million. Another year like 2014 would make that money well spent, but him producing another season like 2014 isn't likely.
Total
18. Josh Willingham, OF/DH, Free Agent
3 of 20
Talent Outlook
Josh Willingham has had a couple rough years in a row after OPS'ing .890 with 35 dingers in 2012, as he has just a .724 OPS with 28 homers over the last two seasons. Beyond being limited by health, he's a poor defender whose offensive ceiling only goes so high thanks to an average-suppressing fly-ball habit.
Willingham's offensive floor, however, is still worthy of respect. His extremely keen eye ensures that he draws plenty of on-base percentage-inflating walks, and his fly-ball habit does make sure the power keeps coming at a solid rate. With tendencies like these, he's at least worth a look as a regular DH.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 145 games in 2012, Willingham has been limited to just 203 contests over the last two seasons. A left wrist injury sidelined him for a good chunk of 2013, and his significant left knee injury that season was his second in four years.
Add in that Willingham is ticketed for his age-36 season, and no, he's not a sure thing to stay on the field. Even if he's granted a full-time spot at DH, his aging body has simply taken too much damage.
Value Outlook
In light of his age and his two straight injury-marred seasons, Willingham probably won't be able to find anyone willing to top his $7 million 2014 salary in what would presumably be a one-year contract for 2015. The best he might be able to do is a $5 million or $6 million deal with incentives.
If that proved to be good enough to keep him from retiring, it has the potential to be a solid deal. Even if he can't play a full season, Willingham could offer enough power and on-base ability to earn such a measly commitment.
Total
17. Emilio Bonifacio, OF/UTIL, Free Agent
4 of 20
Talent Outlook
Emilio Bonifacio was a man afire in the first few weeks of 2014, but then he cooled off to hit .228 with a .600 OPS over his last 75 games. With a .633 OPS between 2012 and 2013, Bonifacio turning into a capable hitter at age 30 in 2015 just isn't going to happen.
That leaves speed and defense as Bonifacio's main selling points, and both are in reasonably good shape. He's lost a step, but he still managed to steal 26 bases in 110 games in 2014. And while he's not really a good defender anywhere, he can play at least passable defense at several different positions.
Durability Outlook
After appearing in 152 games in 2011, Bonifacio has averaged just 103 games in three seasons since. Injuries put a dent in his playing time in 2012 and 2014, putting him on the DL four times with thumb, knee and abdomen injuries.
Still, Bonifacio is hardly ancient. And compared to a lot of active speedsters at his age, his legs have been relatively well preserved by sporadic playing time throughout his career. His durability isn't without warning signs, but it's not too big of a concern.
Value Outlook
A switch-hitting speedster with a versatile glove? Sounds a bit like Chone Figgins, but it's more likely that fellow speedster Rajai Davis' two-year, $10 million contract from last winter will have a hand in determining Bonifacio's next deal. In fact, something very much like that is a solid guess.
All Bonifacio would have to do to be worth it is stay on the field. Since there's a solid chance he will, his speed and versatile defense would help make up for his subpar bat to make an investment in him feasible.
Total
16. Carlos Gonzalez, LF, Trade
5 of 20
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
A career .300 hitter coming into the year, Carlos Gonzalez suffered through a disastrous 2014. He hit only .238 with a .292 OBP, the result of a grossly overaggressive approach and a dearth of good contact best represented by a career-low line-drive rate (15.3 percent).
Of course, Gonzalez's track record says he's worth viewing as a big-time bounce-back candidate. But his track record has been largely influenced by Coors Field. Besides that, his living up to his history hinges on Gonzalez getting over the health problems he had in 2014. And about those...
Durability Outlook
After being limited to 110 games in 2013, Gonzalez played just 70 contests in 2014. He dealt with finger injuries both at the end of 2013 and beginning of 2014 and was ultimately sidelined for good by left knee surgery.
That Gonzalez is still only 29 is the good news, but his injury history is getting scary. After dealing with nagging ailments in 2011 and 2012, he's graduated to serious injuries. And unless he's removed from the outfield, his surgically repaired left knee won't be spared from any running.
Value Outlook
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Colorado Rockies will only entertain moving either Gonzalez or Troy Tulowitzki "for returns that would reflect their contributions when healthy." That's a big "if" where Gonzalez is concerned, and his $53 million price tag over the next three seasons heightens the risk factor.
And if a team were to pay the Rockies' fee, it would inevitably get burned. Even if he were to come back from his injuries, Gonzalez being a superstar player away from Coors Field isn't likely.
Total
15. Torii Hunter, RF, Free Agent
6 of 20
Talent Outlook
After back-to-back years with a .300 average, Torii Hunter returned to hit a respectable .286 with 17 home runs in 2014. This goes to show how his late-career transformation into a swing-happy hitter is still producing plenty of good contact.
The trade-off is that Hunter posted his lowest OBP (.319) in over a decade in 2014, a reminder that aggressiveness can have a major drawback. He's also turned into a station-to-station runner and a statue in right field. As such, what he can do with his bat is only worth so much.
Durability Outlook
In playing in 142 games in 2014, Hunter made it five years in a row and eight out of nine with at least 140 games played. Considering that he just turned 39, that's impressive durability for a guy his age.
Of course, Hunter needs the more-than-occasional day off in order to maintain that durability at this point. And as impressive as his track record is, it's not an ironclad guarantee that he won't break down in 2015. His 18-year career has put a lot of miles on his body.
Value Outlook
Hunter made $26 million in a two-year deal with the Detroit Tigers. If he comes back for one more shot at a ring in 2015, it will more than likely be in a one-year deal for a smaller salary. Say, something like $10 million or $11 million.
Money like that would buy a solid average, a few dingers and Hunter's trademark clubhouse presence. But it just wouldn't be worth it, as Hunter has become a below-average total package.
Total
14. Alex Rios, RF, Free Agent
7 of 20
Talent Outlook
That Alex Rios hit .280 in 2014 is the good news. He just didn't do much else well. His lack of patience limited his OBP to .311, he hit only four home runs, got caught stealing nine times in 26 attempts and played iffy defense in right field.
Rios should be able to continue hitting for high averages, as he's still mixing a contact-oriented approach with a line-drive stroke. But his power, speed and defense issues are worth reading into, as these are things that would be affected by age. And with his age-34 season due up, Rios is no longer young.
Durability Outlook
Durability has long been a feather in Rios' cap, as he's only been on the DL once in 11 years while topping 145 games played in all but three seasons.
Of course, his track record only counts for so much with what will surely be a short-term contract in his future. Then there's the reality that he just had a season end early thanks to a thumb injury and that his durability over the years means there's a lot of miles on his soon-to-be 34-year-old body.
Value Outlook
The Texas Rangers turned down a $13.5 million option to make Rios a free agent, and they were right to do so. And because front offices are too smart to pay for his batting average potential, it wouldn't be surprising if his age and limitations led him to accept a one-year deal for roughly half his option value.
He could earn money like that if he got back to mixing power and speed with good defense. But at his age, Rios getting back to doing that is at best an iffy proposal.
Total
13. Michael Cuddyer, RF, Free Agent
8 of 20
Talent Outlook
Michael Cuddyer's 2014 season was shortened by injuries, but he hit over .330 with an OPS over .900 for a second straight year. He's not a particularly disciplined hitter, but he has rare mix of good bat control and good pop that allows him to pick up hits seemingly at will.
Of course, Coors Field has also helped. That makes Cuddyer's offensive potential largely tied to whether he ends up back in Colorado or heads elsewhere. And either way, iffy baserunning and poor defense will be the price to pay for his offensive production.
Durability Outlook
Cuddyer was limited to only 49 games in 2014, as he went on the DL three times with hamstring and shoulder injuries. That made it two seasons out of three in which he's played no more than 101 games, and he last played in over 150 games back in 2010.
That makes Cuddyer about as durable as you'd expect a 35-year-old with 14 big league seasons under his belt to be. The only way things are getting any better is if he finds a full-time DH role somewhere, and even then there'd still be a level of concern.
Value Outlook
This should be straightforward, but the Rockies threw a curveball when they extended a qualifying offer to Cuddyer. He'd be wise to take the $15.3 million at his age. But after two seasons of .330 hitting, it would also be understandable if he rejected it and went looking for a multiyear deal.
Cuddyer probably wouldn't get what he wanted on the open market, but his bat would surely be too appealing to turn down for, say, two years for $25 million to $30 million. Either way, he's a good bet to be overpaid. His hitting is great, but his durability, baserunning and defense are all very real value drains.
Total
12. Nori Aoki, RF, Free Agent
9 of 20
Talent Outlook
With a .285 average and .349 OBP in 2014, Nori Aoki effectively proved he's incapable of doing worse than a .280-ish average and .350-ish OBP. No wonder, as his approach features plenty of discipline and loads of contact with good bat control. And even with a tendency to make things interesting, he's still a solid defensive right fielder.
Aoki's biggest limit, however, is power that's quickly becoming nonexistent. And with his stolen-base habit also trending downward, you wonder if his legs are starting to feel his 32 years.
Durability Outlook
Mind you, it's not just Aoki's dwindling steals totals that make you wonder if his legs are beginning to reflect his age. They've also been banged up a bit in the last two years, as he suffered through patellar tendinitis in 2013 and groin trouble in 2014.
This is when you notice that Aoki has played in well over 1,000 games in Japan and the majors. So he has mileage, age and injury concerns, making his long-term durability outlook somewhat iffy.
Value Outlook
Go looking for recent contracts for contact-oriented hitters. Really the only relevant comp that appears is Marco Scutaro and the three-year, $20 million deal he signed a couple years ago with the Giants. Since Aoki is younger than the then-37-year-old and a better defender with more speed, he should be able to make over $30 million in a three-year deal.
It's doubtful whether Aoki could be worth an investment like that. He gets on base fine, but on-base ability without power and speed is only worth so much. That's a real concern with him, and that's without getting into his aging legs or the unpredictability of his defense.
Total
11. Colby Rasmus, CF, Free Agent
10 of 20
Talent Outlook
Colby Rasmus has had two seasons in the last three in which he's hit around .225 with a sub-.290 OBP. That's not good, and there's no easy fix. His strikeout habit is only getting worse. And in 2014, he was way too easy to beat with anything slow.
But with Rasmus only headed for his age-28 season, he's far from past his prime. At the least, he should maintain his above-average power for a few more years. He's also a better defender than he showed in 2014. With youth and tools on his side, he's the highest-reward reclamation project out there.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 151 games in 2012, Rasmus has been limited to 222 games over the last two seasons. He went on the DL twice in 2013, and his 2014 was marred by hamstring issues and a couple other ailments.
This should be scary stuff, but keep in mind that Rasmus is considerably younger than your average free agent. He's still at an age where he can bounce back from injuries, which certainly helps his outlook, knowing that he's likely ticketed for a short-term deal.
Value Outlook
Rasmus' free agency is going to be mighty interesting. He may find teams willing to give him a cheap multiyear deal, but his youth and upside could have him preferring to sign a one-year "prove it" deal that could potentially make him a hot commodity next winter.
That's the the more likely avenue, with a reasonable salary projection being in the $10 million to $12 million range. That would be wasted money if Rasmus repeated 2014, but it would be a one-year steal if he even so much as hit for a bunch of power while playing good defense. And that's definitely possible.
Total
10. Michael Saunders, OF, Trade
11 of 20
Rumor Source: Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com
Talent Outlook
A solid hitter in 2012 and 2013, Michael Saunders was more than solid with a .791 OPS in 2014. He did that in a limited sample size (263 plate appearances), granted, but it came largely courtesy of a career-best mix of discipline, contact and line drives. Some good luck was involved, but it was mostly good talent.
That Saunders can still be beaten with slow stuff means his hitting potential may not go much higher, but he has other talents that give him value. He's a solid baserunner and above-average defensive right fielder. With only his age-28 season due up, these talents shouldn't be going anywhere for a while.
Durability Outlook
After peaking with 139 games in 2012, Saunders played in 132 games in 2013 and only in 78 in 2014. Injuries took their toll, as he lost 65 games to the DL with oblique and shoulder injuries in addition to a couple other setbacks.
Saunders still being very much in the middle of his prime years is the good news, but his difficulty evading the injury bug is nothing new. For a team to take him on would mean taking on the two years of club control he has left, and his track record offers no guarantees those would be healthy years.
Value Outlook
After Saunders' strong season in 2014, the Seattle Mariners presumably won't be interested in acquiring prospects for him. They'll want a player or players ready to contribute, with their preference possibly being a right-handed stick for a decidedly left-heavy lineup.
This is to say the Mariners probably won't be dumb enough to sell low on a player who, injuries aside, is a talented outfielder with a couple years of club control left. But while the price to acquire Saunders could be considerable, those are good reasons to think he'd be worth it.
Total
9. Marlon Byrd, RF, Trade
12 of 20
Rumor Source: Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com
Talent Outlook
Marlon Byrd's OPS dropped 86 points from 2013 to 2014, and not by accident. He has an extremely aggressive, undisciplined approach that features a lot of whiffs, making it tough for him to be consistent at the dish.
The trade-off, of course, is that Byrd's contact is loud contact. He swings for the fences now and hits enough fly balls (40.3 percent) to make it worth his while. His 49 dingers over the last two seasons can vouch. As a bonus, he's also a pretty good defender in right field.
Durability Outlook
Byrd played in 154 games in 2014 and 301 games overall in the last two seasons. And somewhat surprisingly, he's only had to hit the DL once in the last six campaigns: with facial fractures after a hit-by-pitch in 2011.
However, Byrd is also 37 years old with plenty of mileage on his body, and his 6'0" frame is carrying close to 250 pounds to boot. Byrd remaining durable in the last two years of his contract in 2015 (guaranteed) 2016 (club option), therefore, isn't quite a sure thing.
Value Outlook
Ken Rosenthal says that Byrd is the most popular of the Philadelphia Phillies' trade chips, and that's no surprise. His right-handed power is a rare asset, and his age and mere $8 million salary for 2015 ought to make him reasonably affordable in a deal.
But since the Phillies presumably aren't interested in swapping Byrd for another free agent-to-be, it could cost a team a piece or two of controllable talent to get him. It's a good thing he likely has another 25 dingers in him, because he'd need to hit at least that many to justify such a deal.
Total
8. Melky Cabrera, LF, Free Agent
13 of 20
Talent Outlook
After a lost season in 2013, Melky Cabrera bounced back in a big way to hit .301 with an .808 OPS in 2014. He was as good a contact hitter as he's really always been, but he was simply able to make much better contact thanks to a return to good health after playing 2013 with a tumor on his spine.
This makes it three years out of four that Cabrera has been a .300 hitter, and the skills that have made that possible shouldn't abandon him anytime soon. He should also have 15-homer power for a couple more seasons. But be warned that his good hitting doesn't come with good baserunning or defense.
Durability Outlook
Durability was one of Cabrera's hallmarks right up until 2013, but things have been dicey ever since. His entire 2013 season was marred by health problems, and his 2014 season ultimately came to an early end thanks to a finger injury.
With hitters, there's always the concern that finger injuries will find ways to linger. Beyond that, it's not such a good look that a guy who recently turned 30 has had trouble staying healthy all of a sudden. In a long-term contact, Cabrera does come with some durability risk.
Value Outlook
After making $8 million in each of the last two seasons, Cabrera is going to be on the lookout for a multiyear deal that will may him eight figures a year. His ties to draft-pick compensation will limit his market, but a switch-hitter with his bat should still be able to find something to his liking.
Something like Nick Swisher's four-year, $56 million contract could be in store for Cabrera. He could earn that deal with four more seasons like 2014, but only barely, due to his modest power and subpar baserunning and defense. Add in his durability issues, and his next deal will likely be an overpay.
Total
7. Nick Markakis, RF, Free Agent
14 of 20
Talent Outlook
Nick Markakis only raised his average five points from 2013 to 2014, but an increase in OBP and power helped him raise his OPS 44 points from .685 to .729. His hitting has a good floor thanks to his mix of good discipline with elite contact and bat control, and he did indeed get back to driving the ball in 2014.
However, Markakis' power is nothing special by corner-outfield standards and likely not getting any better at this point. And though his reputation as a defender precedes him, he really doesn't have a ton of range to go with his arm strength. All told, he's not quite the total package.
Durability Outlook
Durability is one of the things that's defined Markakis' career so far. With 2012 being the lone exception, he's played in 147 games in eight of his nine major league seasons.
Of course, you do wonder when so much mileage will catch up to Markakis. But he's not yet past his prime, and it's within reason to think that his years of patrolling Camden Yards' small right field has helped preserve his legs. Over a long-term contract, he's a pretty good bet to stay on the field.
Value Outlook
Since the Baltimore Orioles didn't want to pay Markakis' $17.5 million option for 2015, it's no surprise they didn't make him a $15.3 million qualifying offer. But this is good news for him, as the market for his services could turn into a bidding war. If Shane Victorino could get three years and $39 million two years ago, Markakis could end up with a four-year deal worth over $50 million.
That would be a good chunk of change for a guy who's not quite a star-level player. But with his durability and solid set of skills, he could make it a rare long-term contract that's actually fair.
Total
6. Nelson Cruz, OF, Free Agent
15 of 20
Talent Outlook
Nelson Cruz followed an .833 OPS and 27 homers in a suspension-shorted 2013 season with an .859 OPS and an MLB-high 40 homers in an explosive 2014 season. With Cruz mixing huge raw power with a consistent fly-ball habit as always, all he really needed to hit 40 homers was good health.
Cruz did, however, come down to earth in a big way in the second half. Consider that a reminder that inconsistency is going to plague him as long as he remains so aggressive and whiff-happy. And with no value coming from him on the bases or on defense, don't think he's changed too much.
Durability Outlook
For a guy who's known for being injury-prone, it's a good look on Cruz that he hasn't been on the DL since 2011. Also a good look is how he's played in 159 games in two of the last three seasons, with only his suspension keeping him from getting there in 2013.
Of course, the counterargument is that Cruz is 34 years old, and there's no erasing his injury history. But what will likely be a nearly (or not at all) full-time role at DH from here on out does help downplay his age and injury track record, making him a reasonably solid bet to stay on the field.
Value Outlook
After Cruz made a mere $8 million in 2014, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports that Cruz is looking for a four-year deal. Presumably, the idea will be to get an average annual value that at least equals the $15.3 million of this year's qualifying offer.
Cruz's age and his ties to draft-pick compensation will make it tough for him to find what he wants, but he could probably get $15 million a year over three seasons and an option. That'll seem like a bargain for a guy who just hit 40 homers. But since he's not as good as he looked in the first half of 2014, it won't be.
Total
5. Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Trade
16 of 20
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Yoenis Cespedes' 2014 production was not unlike his 2013 output, as he once again authored an OPS in the mid-.700s with over 20 homers. But 2014 might have been his best defensive season, as a series of highlight-reel throws helped earn him the approval of advanced metrics.
But Cespedes is not without his weaknesses. He's too much of a hacker to be a consistent on-base merchant, and he doesn't have the range in the outfield to match his arm strength. Looking back now, his peak exists in the past with the 2012 season rather than in the future.
Durability Outlook
Cespedes' durability appears to be on an upward trend, as he's gone from 129 games in 2012 to 135 in 2013 to 152 in 2014. And with only his age-29 season due up, he should still be a couple years away from his decline phase.
But Cespedes' durability does come with some strings attached. Though he doesn't hit the DL that often, nagging injuries are a near constant with him. It's possible that his durability could take a step back in his final year before free agency in 2015.
Value Outlook
If the Boston Red Sox deal Cespedes, it will presumably be so they can acquire a much-needed piece for their starting rotation. And since he has right-handed power and a modest $10.5 million salary for 2015, they may be able to command a controllable mid-rotation starter or a one-year ace rental in a straight-up swap.
That would seem like a fair price to pay for one season of a guy with superstar talent. But Cespedes isn't actually a superstar, and his complicated contract would bar his new team from a shot at draft-pick compensation when he hits free agency after 2015. A deal for him could backfire.
Total
4. Yasmani Tomas, OF, Free Agent
17 of 20
Talent Outlook
As with all Cuban defectors, there's an element of mystery with Yasmani Tomas. The word from Ben Badler of Baseball America, however, is that he has plus raw power from the right side of the plate. Also, FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel is of the mind that Tomas has the goods to be at least an average hitter.
Along with plenty of offensive upside, Tomas is young. He'll only be 24 on Opening Day in 2015. But since he doesn't have much to offer in the speed and defense departments, don't expect him to flash the all-around talent of fellow countrymen Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig.
Durability Outlook
There's no detailed injury history available for Tomas, but Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald is one of several to mention a shoulder injury that seemed to sap Tomas' power in the 2012-2013 Cuban National Series season. Since shoulder injuries have indeed been known to do that, it's something to be wary of.
Even still, Tomas' durability outlook is hardly worth panicking over. Beyond only being (just about) 24 years old, that the Cuban National Series doesn't feature as many games as MLB per season means his body is pretty well preserved. How he'll hold up isn't something teams should be too concerned with.
Value Outlook
A September report from Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe suggests that Tomas could command as much as $100 million in a long-term contact. Because he has youth, right-handed power and no ties to draft-pick compensation, that may be realistic.
As absurd as that sounds, knowing that Tomas hasn't played a single MLB game yet, we have enough evidence that shows elite Cuban players can make it in MLB. Just as important is that Tomas is a long, long way away from his decline years.
Total
3. Justin Upton, LF, Trade
18 of 20
Rumor Source: David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Mark Bowman of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Justin Upton followed a strong 2013 with an even better 2014, posting an .833 OPS and hitting 29 homers. He tried out a more aggressive approach that didn't quite fix his swing-and-miss habit, but his excellent production against off-speed stuff is a testament to how well he stayed back on the ball.
Since Upton's only headed for his age-27 season, he should have no problem keeping the loud contact coming in his final year before he hits free agency in 2016. He's also at least a solid defender in left field. So while he has his limitations, he absolutely deserves to be valued as a star-level player.
Durability Outlook
After playing in 154 games in 2014, Upton has now played in at least 150 contests in each of the last four seasons. To find the last time he was on the DL, you have to go back to 2009.
If there's a catch, it's that Upton has more mileage on his body than your average 27-year-old. And though he hasn't hit the DL in a while, he hasn't quite been injury-free, with an assortment of nagging setbacks in recent years. Even still, Upton remaining durable in 2015 is beyond a good bet.
Value Outlook
With right-handed power in short supply, Upton is an awfully valuable trade chip for the Atlanta Braves. That he's owed a reasonable $14.5 million in 2015 doesn't hurt. As such, the Braves would have a couple legs to stand on if they were to demand a couple pieces of controllable talent for one year of Upton.
Upton would need to live up to his potential in that one year to justify such a big investment. Fortunately, there's no reason why he wouldn't be able to do that.
Total
2. Jason Heyward, RF, Trade
19 of 20
Rumor Source: David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Mark Bowman of MLB.com
Talent Outlook
Jason Heyward was barely an above-average offensive producer in 2014, OPS'ing just .735 with 11 home runs. His approach is fine, as it features a decent mix of discipline and contact. But his swing limits his potential, as really anything above the knees has a good chance of beating him.
It's a good thing, then, that Heyward doesn't need to be a great hitter to be a great player. He's an underrated baserunner and is unquestionably the best defensive right fielder in the business. And with only his age-25 season due up, he should have one last great season left before free agency.
Durability Outlook
Heyward has played in at least 149 games in two of the last three seasons, and it's actually difficult to point to his 2013 season as evidence that he's injury-prone. He only played in 104 games, but that was because of appendicitis and a wayward pitch that broke his jaw. Hardly wear-and-tear injuries, those.
And did we mention that Heyward is only 25? Yeah, durability isn't a question heading into his walk year.
Value Outlook
If the Braves decide to dangle Heyward this winter, they'll be dangling arguably the game's best right fielder. And one who's only owed $7.8 million in 2015, to boot. They could certainly get some controllable talent in exchange for him.
That would be a high price to pay for what could ultimately be only one year of Heyward's services. But since the odds of him being a superstar-level player in that one year are good, it would be a defensible deal.
Total
1. Alex Gordon, LF, Trade
20 of 20
Rumor Source: Andy Martino of the New York Daily News
Talent Outlook
Alex Gordon's .783 OPS, 19 homers and 12 steals in 2014 were hardly numbers fit for a superstar, but his play in October showed why he is indeed a superstar. He adds superb defense to his strong traditional numbers, and he does a lot more on the basepaths than simply steal bases.
Not that Gordon's perfect, mind you. Any pitcher who can spin a good breaking ball has an easy way to beat him, and his uppercut swing isn't without holes. Nonetheless, he should have a couple more years of well-rounded play in him. Since his contract is running out (2016 club option), that would work out just fine.
Durability Outlook
Durability hasn't been an issue for Gordon in the last four seasons. He's played in at least 151 games in each one, and even nagging injuries have been relatively infrequent in the last three years.
That makes Gordon a good bet to stay on the field in the two years his remaining contract covers. Really the only worry is that four straight years of heavy action will catch up to him. He is past 30, after all.
Value Outlook
It's not a given that the Kansas City Royals will trade Gordon, but Andy Martino says their payroll situation has the industry expecting them to be open to the idea. If they do, Gordon's status as an elite player who's owed a max of $25 million over the next two seasons will allow them to jack up the price.
It could cost a team a high-ceiling MLB-ready youngster and a couple of top prospects to get Gordon, and all or most of his remaining contract could also be a part of the deal. But while that's a big asking price, the return could be two seasons of one of the best players in baseball.
.jpg?w=600 "Full Eagles-Cowboys Trade 🤝")