2015 NFL Mock Draft: Smartest Moves for Every Team in Round 1
An NFL season is like an organism. It's a living thing that's constantly evolving beyond what we see on the field. Everything that happens before and after Sunday is in many ways more relevant than what goes on during the games.
Teams are in constant evaluation mode, figuring out what works and what doesn't, putting them in draft mode long before we actually get to the offseason with the NFL Scouting Combine. It's also the biggest reason for hope in a league that's all about parity.
Now that there's enough evidence by which to properly judge all 32 teams, it's easier to build a mock draft based on what each club needs to improve or maintain its position, depending on where it is. These are the smartest picks, based on what we know now, to make in the first round.
.jpg?w=256 "Vikings Cowboys Football")
Note: Draft-eligible underclassmen are included, and order is based on standings after Week 10.
1. Oakland Raiders: Leonard Williams, DL, USC
There may be some clamoring for a quarterback in this spot, though Derek Carr has shown enough with little help around him to warrant more time. It also helps Carr's case that the Raiders have so many needs to fill before competing again.
With Khalil Mack looking like a superstar at linebacker, Oakland needs to take care of the defensive trenches. Leonard Williams is the most versatile defensive player in this year's class, capable of playing inside with tremendous raw strength and outside with surprising quickness for a 290-pound man.
An AFC scout told NFL.com that Williams reminds him of Richard Seymour. Raiders fans will be haunted by the memory of Seymour from his time in Oakland, but with the Patriots, he was one of the best defensive tackles in football.
Playing in a division with Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers means you need an attitude on defense to win games. Williams, along with Mack, gives Oakland two foundation pieces to build around on that side of the ball.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
It was tempting to go with Nebraska defensive end Randy Gregory in this spot because Gus Bradley is a defensive coach and the Jaguars need an impact pass-rusher.
However, with Blake Bortles the future of this franchise at quarterback and a solid young receiving corps around him, the Jaguars have to give the rookie help on the offensive line to reach his full potential.
Cedric Ogbuehi also has the benefit of playing at a school that's churned out high-first-round talent on the offensive line in each of the last two years, including Luke Joeckel, whom the Jaguars took with the second pick in 2013.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
This was a difficult selection for many reasons. Tampa Bay needs a lot of help on defense, particularly in the secondary. Then there's the baggage that comes with Jameis Winston off the field, regardless of what he produces on game day, and Marcus Mariota is also on the board.
Yet some team in desperate need of a quarterback will look past the issues, believing it can get the best version of Winston. The Buccaneers bought in to Josh McCown's stats in Chicago and it burned them. Mike Glennon, while talented, hasn't been consistent enough to take hold of the job.
With Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, the Buccaneers should be better on offense than they are. The glaring hole is at quarterback. Winston has all the physical attributes you want in a quarterback, with size (6'4", 227 pounds), arm strength, accuracy and poise in the most dire of circumstances.
4. New York Jets: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Geno Smith may not be the answer for New York at quarterback, but it seems his time will come to an end after 2014 because of his erratic play. Michael Vick has already taken over. The Jets have done nothing to help their quarterbacks, with a terrible receiving corps, so there's an argument to be made for drafting Amari Cooper in this spot.
The reality of the situation is that Rex Ryan will likely be out of a job when the season is over. He basically said as much already during an appearance on ESPN Radio's The Michael Kay Show, via Mike Foss of USA Today.
"You’re right," Ryan said, "if that’s the case and we don’t get this thing on the right track, I don’t think for a minute I’ll be here, I know I won’t, but I believe this team will right itself and we’ll find a way."
So with a new coaching staff possibly coming in, it will want to start fresh with its own quarterback to build around. Marcus Mariota is more valuable to this franchise than any other because of his ability to create plays with his arm or legs, a necessary quality with the lack of offensive weapons and a mediocre offensive line.
5. Tennessee Titans: Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
With no quarterback worth taking at this spot, the Tennessee Titans are in a spot to address their need for an impact pass-rusher. Vic Beasley has been a consistent performer at Clemson, continuing to get better with his actions off the line, showing great burst at the snap and able to play low or high against offensive tackles.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
There are so many problems with Atlanta's defense that it could go any number of directions. The only choice in this spot, based on what's already happened, is Randy Gregory. Nebraska's star defensive end is the impact pass-rusher this franchise has been lacking for years.
The pick does come with a caveat that Gregory is best used as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Mike Smith uses a 4-3, so if he survives this season, the pick could change.
However, when you have Greg Cosell of NFL Films saying that Gregory's a better pro prospect than Jadeveon Clowney, a team can find a spot for him to play:
While the Clowney comparison may be a little hyperbolic, Gregory has an incredible ceiling and won't need much time to make an impact. He can be a foundation piece on any defense.
7. St. Louis Rams: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
It remains to be seen what the Rams do at quarterback. Austin Davis has been erratic but with enough good things to warrant one more year as a starter. He needs help, because St. Louis' receiving corps isn't very good. Tavon Austin is best used in a Percy Harvin role.
Amari Cooper isn't the most imposing receiver at 6'1" and 210 pounds, nor does his speed jump off the screen at you, yet no one in college runs better routes, makes catches in traffic or creates big plays better and more consistently.
8. Washington: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
Washington is one of those teams that looks better on paper than its results show. One area of improvement is the defensive line, which is lacking an impact player. Shane Ray can step in to Jim Haslett's scheme and play with Ryan Kerrigan to give the team two solid pass-rushers if Brian Orakpo doesn't return next year.
Ray isn't great against the run at just 240 pounds, but he's quick, aggressive and a terrific tackler who can hold his own in those spots.
9. New York Giants: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
The Giants need to establish a new identity in their secondary. Landon Collins is the most versatile safety in this class, built like a truck at 6'0", 222 pounds and aggressive enough to play center field or in the box. He's the enforcer this team needs to build around.
10. Chicago Bears: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
Even though the Bears are synonymous with middle linebackers, their entire group is so bad right now that it just needs someone to build around. Leonard Floyd is the best player on the board and a game-changer because of his ability to rush the passer, drop into coverage and defend the run with electrifying speed.
11. Carolina Panthers: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
It's amazing for a team that won 12 games just one year ago to have as many gaping holes as the Carolina Panthers do now. But that's just life in the NFL.
While you can look at the secondary as an area also in need of attention, the best player on the board who fills a need is Brandon Scherff. Iowa's big offensive tackle isn't sexy, lacking the upside of Ogbuehi, but he doesn't have many weaknesses.
The Panthers will go as far on offense as Cam Newton carries them. He's played behind virtually an entirely new offensive line in 2014 and hasn't gotten much protection, as evidenced by that Monday night debacle in Week 10 against Philadelphia. Scherff can be a foundation piece, as well as open up Carolina's nonexistent running game.
12. Houston Texans: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Houston is in a bad spot, because quarterback is the biggest need, but there's no one worth taking at this spot. The Texans can instead focus their attention on protecting the quarterbacks currently on the roster, because the offensive line is also an area of need.
Andrus Peat hasn't emerged from the pack as a top-tier offensive lineman this season, but he is solid in all aspects of the game. He's a monster at 6'7", 313 pounds, using that size and power to overpower opponents against the run and showing excellent footwork in pass protection.
13. Minnesota Vikings: Shawn Oakman, DE, Baylor
On his big board for ESPN.com (Insider subscription required), Mel Kiper makes a great case for Shawn Oakman as a top-10 talent in the 2015 draft class:
"Has basketball-center length at 6-9 but also packs on more than 280 pounds, which he carries well and allows him to drive blockers. When he gets his long arms extended into blockers (or in passing lanes), he can shed quickly. How Oakman is used will be a question, but the former Penn Stater is a tantalizing specimen and is beginning to come into his own.
"
We have seen with Ezekiel Ansah with Detroit two years ago or Anthony Barr with Minnesota last year that teams will bet on ceiling when it comes to pass-rushers. Oakman is a more impressive physical specimen than Ansah or Barr with the upside of a star if he can continue putting it all together.
14. New Orleans Saints: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
No player is harder to project in this class than Shaq Thomspon. He's an incredible athlete, playing at linebacker, safety, running back and cornerback in his college career. The junior star isn't a prototypical linebacker at 6'1", 228 pounds, but his ability to tackle in space and run in coverage is undeniable.
The Saints need versatile athletes to upgrade a defense that has been dreadful most of this season. Thompson also gives Rob Ryan a playmaker who can excel in his blitz-happy defensive scheme.
15. San Francisco 49ers: La'el Collins, OT, LSU
While guard will likely be a more pressing need given the impending free agency of Mike Iupati, the 49ers' entire offensive line has been a mess this season. Anthony Davis has had problems staying healthy. And Joe Staley, while he did sign a contract extension last year, is over 30 with a lot of mileage under his belt.
This is a franchise, regardless of what might happen with the coaching staff after the season, built on a foundation of defense and powerful offensive line. The latter has been lost this year, so an infusion of youth is needed.
La'el Collins has been stout in the running game this season and shown improvement in pass protection. As an added bonus, he can also play guard as a rookie since he spent time there at LSU as a sophomore.
16. San Diego Chargers: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
The Chargers could go a couple of directions on defense. Their secondary is still in need of depth, especially with Brandon Flowers on a one-year contract, but finding a nose tackle for John Pagano's 3-4 defensive scheme is critical.
Danny Shelton hasn't been outstanding as a senior, but John Middlekauff of 95.7 The Game has raved about his monster potential:
Finding a nose tackle who can close gaps and open holes on the outside for edge-rushers is imperative in a 3-4 scheme. Shelton is the missing piece San Diego has been looking for.
17. Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo): Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
Defense was supposed to be a strength for the Browns in 2014. Instead, they've had all sorts of problems on that side of the ball. Joe Haden has regressed, while Justin Gilbert looks lost in his first season. The run defense has been even worse, allowing the fifth-most yards per game.
Dante Fowler specializes as a run-stopping defensive end with size at 271 pounds. He's been a huge asset for an otherwise disappointing Florida team, drawing raves from coach Will Muschamp, via Robbie Andreu of The Gainesville Sun:
The Browns need to figure out what their identity is going to be on defense if they want to be a real championship contender instead of just a team fighting for a playoff spot.
18. Miami Dolphins: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
For a team that doesn't get a lot of attention, the Dolphins don't have many glaring holes to fill. The offensive line, which had been a mess for the last two years, was rebuilt in the offseason and played well. One area that could use some tightening up, though, is the secondary.
Trae Waynes is a new-age cornerback with size (6'1", 182 pounds) and tremendous ball skills. He can stand to get more disciplined in coverage but rarely gets burned for big plays because of his ability to recover quickly.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyrus Thompson, OT, Oklahoma
Despite Ben Roethlisberger's hot streak in Weeks 8 and 9, Pittsburgh's offensive line is still in need of some patchwork. Tyrus Thompson is a 320-pound athlete who is light on his feet and a power run-blocker. He's got to get more consistency, but the natural ability is tremendous and performance is often exceptional.
20. Baltimore Ravens: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
First-round running backs were thought to be a thing of the past, but some team can make an exception for a freak athlete like Todd Gurley. The Ravens are still trying to figure out their running game in light of all the turnover at the position this year.
Baltimore has put up solid rushing totals this season, but think of how much better things could be with Gurley as the lead guy, with Justin Forsett backing him up. Gurley's NCAA suspension, which amounted to four games, may have helped him, because it meant fewer carries and hits his body had to endure.
When healthy and on the field, Gurley is as dominant as any running back we've seen in a long time, There's still great value to having a dominant running game. The Ravens will be happy to have him in their lineup.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
The Bengals aren't necessarily in the market for a linebacker right now, but that can change in a hurry. As talented as Vontaze Burfict is, he's dealt with a number of concussions already and has been injury prone in his career.
Bud Dupree is slowly starting to move into the draft conversation, with elite athleticism and improving performance. B/R NFL draft expert Matt Miller has listed the Kentucky star as a player deserving of more national attention:
There's plenty of time for Dupree to keep moving up draft boards. For now, though, the senior remains a late-first-round project.
22. Cleveland Browns: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
No one expected Cleveland's wide receivers to light the world on fire with Josh Gordon suspended, but they've been solid so far and could allow the team to look in other directions. However, it's easier to develop a quarterback who has lots of toys to play with.
DeVante Parker is taller than Cooper at 6'3" and uses his height to make plays inside or deep down the field. He shined in Louisville's biggest game of the season against Florida State, recording eight catches for 214 yards, only adding to his improving draft stock.
23. Green Bay Packers: Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State
Shilique Calhoun is the kind of speed and upside as a pass-rusher that the Packers have been trying to find for years. He's a development project, with room to grow at 257 pounds, but has enough present ability to make an impact as a rookie on a team built to win right away.
24. Seattle Seahawks: Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State
The Seahawks have done nothing to help Russell Wilson's development as a pocket passer. They let his favorite target from the Super Bowl run (Golden Tate) leave as a free agent. They also traded Percy Harvin when he was deemed a bad fit for this offense.
Rashad Greene isn't an exciting athlete in the ways that Harvin was, nor does he have ideal size at 5'11" and 175 pounds, but he's consistently shown the ability to run by powerful cornerbacks and create space with tremendous separation skills.
25. Kansas City Chiefs: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
When you consider that Dwayne Bowe, A.J. Jenkins and Donnie Avery are Kansas City's top three wide receivers, it's a miracle that Alex Smith has been as effective as he has this season. The Chiefs desperately need to add an impact playmaker on the outside to open up their offense.
Kevin White has been the best receiver in the country this season, combining elite size (6'3", 210 pounds) with above-average speed and good hands. His weakness, as Chris Sprow of ESPN noted, is the ability to create consistent separation from cornerbacks:
Separation is an important trait, but when you see how well White has done making plays in traffic and showing good skills down the field, it's not enough to knock him out of the first round.
26. Indianapolis Colts: T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
When you look at the offensive line Andrew Luck plays behind, it's a miracle he's been so great in his three years. The Colts are good enough to make the playoffs because of their star quarterback. Now, it's time to give him some help by protecting him.
T.J. Clemmings is about as raw an offensive lineman as there is in this class, playing the position for just two years after starting his college career on defense. He's getting better each week this season and looks like a late-first-round talent.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Dallas' hot start has been offset by a midseason lull, thanks to an injury to Tony Romo and the defensive holes everyone expected to be around all year finally showing up. The biggest issue is in the secondary, which has been gashed to the tune of a 65.5 completion percentage against and 240 yards per game.
Marcus Peters has above-average size (6'0", 190 pounds), shows excellent footwork and plays the ball as well as any defensive back in the country. UCLA wide receiver Jordan Payton raved about Peters' ability to Ryan Kartje of the Orange County Register:
There is an elephant in the room, namely Peters' character. He was kicked off Washington's roster in early November for a series of incidents, the last of which was an argument with an assistant coach, per Adam Jude of The Seattle Times.
No one will deny that Peters has the talent to be a first-round pick, but he's got a lot of rehabilitation to do before teams can trust him enough to invest a high selection on him. Some teams are willing to put up with a lot if you have talent, though.
28. Philadelphia Eagles: Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
Even though the Eagles have more pressing needs on defense, Chip Kelly wants to win games with his offense. Despite the emergence of Jeremy Maclin, it's become clear how vital DeSean Jackson was to this team.
Nelson Agholor can't match Jackson's straight-line speed, but he's no slouch in that department and gets off the line as well as any receiver in this year's class.
29. Detroit Lions: Mike Bennett, DT, Ohio State
The Lions are facing a difficult decision after the season, with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley becoming free agents. Their defense is built around the defensive line, specifically those monster defensive tackles in the middle.
Mike Bennett isn't as physically imposing as Suh or Fairley at 286 pounds, but he's got surprising quickness and has proved himself to be a disruptive force in the passing game. That's what the Lions will be looking for if they lose one or both of their impending free agents.
30. Denver Broncos: Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford
The Broncos want to keep this machine rolling as long as Peyton Manning is around. They have two big decisions coming up in the offseason, with Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas on the brink of free agency. Both are going to get paid a lot of money, but whether it comes from Denver or somewhere else is a mystery.
With the team needing reinforcements, Ty Montgomery looks like a solid alternative or just another weapon for Manning to play with. He's a burner down the field and is great at making yards after the catch, which is how the Broncos make their living.
31. New England Patriots: A.J. Cann, G, South Carolina
Even though the Patriots offensive line has gotten better this season, it's still not a unit that screams long-term stability at you.
A.J. Cann isn't an exciting athlete. He's a player who lines up, does his job and has the measurables to be a solid starter for a long time.
Given that we are talking about Bill Belichick making picks here, no one has any idea what he will do. Odds are good to just look for someone from Florida or Ohio State that Urban Meyer has raved about.
32. Arizona Cardinals: Hau'oli Kikaha, OLB, Washington
The Cardinals have done so many things right in 2014 that it's hard to imagine they are 274 passing yards per game. That makes more sense when you realize the defense is tied for 31st with eight sacks.
Hau'oli Kikaha has played like a stud this season for Washington. He led the nation in sacks through Week 10 of the college season with 15.5, per David Lombardi of ESPN.com:
Kikaha is exactly the kind of player Arizona, which loves to blitz opposing quarterbacks, needs to improve a defense that is talented but has shown holes this season.
Stats via ESPN.com
If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Vikings Cowboys Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "Jaguars Broncos Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Saints Eyeing Draft Trade")
.jpg?w=600 "Vrabel to Get Counseling, Miss Draft")
.jpg?w=600 "Pickens Trade Possible")