NFL Predictions Week 8: Expert Consensus Projections

It seems like only yesterday that the 2014 season was getting underway, but by the time the dust settles on Week 8 most teams will have played half their games.

Some things have gone according to plan. The Denver Broncos are good. The Oakland Raiders are not.

However, there have also been more than a few surprises. The Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals are a combined 11-2. The New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks are a combined 5-7.

The second half of the 2014 campaign is sure to include just as many surprises as the first, but there's still one more week of games to go before we hit "halftime."

With that in mind, here's a look ahead at how the NFL National Lead and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report expect Week 8 to play out, beginning with their pick for the week's biggest upset.

Upset of the Week

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Winner: Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over Arizona Cardinals (4 votes)

There were any number of worthy candidates for Upset of the Week in Week 8, and seven contests received at least one vote.

In many ways the game that received the most wouldn't even be an upset. After all, just like the Cardinals, the Philadelphia Eagles sit at 5-1. Given the old gambling adage that the home team gets three points, Las Vegas oddsmakers apparently view this one as a tossup.

The Eagles are coming off their most impressive win of the year, a shutout drubbing of the New York Giants two weeks ago. However, head coach Chip Kelly told Phil Sheridan of ESPN the bye week was no vacation for the Eagles:

"

We just analyze what we did in certain situations. We went through goal line, we went through coming out, we went through third-down situations, we went through openers, kind of looked at everything. What we were successful at -- kind of looked at it on film -- what we weren't successful at, why we weren't successful at it. Was it personnel, was it scheme, was it we weren't prepared for this? So, you're kind of looking at everything that you're doing.

"

Last year, the Eagles hosted the Redbirds coming out of their bye and emerged with a three-point win.

Our experts (at least four of them) expect a similar result this time around.

Others receiving votes: Minnesota Vikings (+3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 votes), San Diego Chargers (+9.5) over Denver Broncos (2 votes), Tennessee Titans (+2.5) over Houston Texans (2 votes), Chicago Bears (+7) over New England Patriots (2 votes), Carolina Panthers (+5) over Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) over Miami Dolphins (1 vote)

More Receiving Yards: Michael Floyd or Jeremy Maclin

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Winner: Michael Floyd (8 votes)

Sunday's duel in the desert features several of the NFL's top young offensive stars, including a pair of talented receivers.

After missing the entire 2013 season with a torn ACL, Jeremy Maclin of the Philadelphia Eagles has blossomed into the top wideout for the Eagles' high-powered offense. Bleacher Report's Cody Swartz called Maclin one of the keys to a Philly victory in Week 8:

"

Maclin is having himself a stellar season, especially considering he missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL. He's 18th among receivers in yards (445), which puts him on pace for a career-high 1,200-yard season. He's hauled in four touchdowns, making him one of just eight receivers with at least 445 yards and four scores.

And remarkably, he's done all that without a single dropped pass. Foles hasn't been shy in targeting Maclin; the Eagles' sixth-year wideout ranks 13th at his position in targets (55). The problem is that too often Foles has missed an open Maclin. The completion percentage between the pair sits at just 46.6, good for 102nd among 110 QB-WR duos.

"

However, by the narrowest of edges our panel feels that Maclin is going to be outreceived (yes, I'm aware that's not a word. Thanks, Webster.) by third-year pro Michael Floyd of the Cardinals.

It's containing Floyd that CBS Philadelphia thinks is the key to an Eagles win:

"

The Eagles outside corners, Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher, have struggled in their first six games this season. In a tough matchup on the road, the Cardinals posses two athletic, 6’3″ wideouts in Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. While Fitzgerald, 31, looks to have his best days behind him, Floyd, 24, is emerging a new dominant outside threat for the Cards.

Williams and Fletcher will have their hands full.

"

Despite all the injuries that have hit the Cardinals at quarterback, Floyd ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per catch among wideouts with 15 or more receptions.

Blowout of the Week

Evan Vucci/Associated Press

Winner: Dallas Cowboys over Washington Redskins (8 votes)

Break up the Dallas Cowboys!

After their victory over the New York Giants last Sunday, the Cowboys are an NFL-best 6-1. They rank third in the NFL in total yards per game, led by running back DeMarco Murray's record-breaking start to the year.

Even more surprising, a Dallas defense that was god-awful in 2013—a defense that many pundits believed would be historically bad in 2014—ranks a respectable 14th in the league for yards allowed per game.

Add it all together, and it was enough for NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon to recently opine that the Cowboys might just be the league's best team this year:

"

Now it's as though everything has clicked just in time, and we're looking at a team with the game's best running back, best receiver, one of its best tight ends, one of its best quarterbacks, its best offensive line and its best kicker.

With the defense performing surprisingly well and likely to benefit soon from the return of key cogs Bruce Carter, Josh Brent and DeMarcus Lawrence, it's really hard to argue that anyone in this conference is in better shape than Dallas.

"

Going up against a Washington team that will be starting their third different quarterback of the season, our pundits believe that the Cowboys will keep right on rolling Monday night.

Others receiving votes: Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers (3 votes), Detroit Lions over Atlanta Falcons (3 votes), Denver Broncos over San Diego Chargers (1 vote)

Mismatch of the Week

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Winner: Detroit Lions defensive line vs. Atlanta Falcons offensive line (12 votes)

It wasn't supposed to be like this in 2014.

The Atlanta Falcons were going to get back into things in the NFC South. Last year's four-win faceplant was supposed to be an injury-spurred aberration, an unfortunate footnote in franchise history.

Well, here we sit in 2014 and the 2-5 Falcons no better than they were a year ago. Part of the problem is the injuries that have hit the team hard once again.

An even bigger part is an offensive line that has been completely porous. The Falcons have allowed the 13th-most sacks in the NFL and rank 23rd in rushing, averaging fewer than 100 yards a game.

Those numbers do not bode well headed into Sunday's London matchup with the Lions' top-ranked defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Lions defensive line ranks 11th in pass rushing and no team has been better at stuffing the run this year.

It's strength vs. weakness, and a mismatch that's apt to make for a miserable trip across the pond for the Falcons.

Others receiving votes: Dallas Cowboys passing game vs. Washington secondary (2 votes), Green Bay Packers passing game vs. New Orleans Saints defense (1 vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Winner: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (6 votes)

Many will call shenanigans on this pick. How can Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions—a player with a 5,000-yard passing season on his resume—ever be considered a "sleeper" at the quarterback position?

With that said, it fits given that the Detroit passing game (comparatively speaking, anyway) has been asleep in recent weeks.

At his current pace, Stafford will pass for 4,322 yards in 2014. That may not seem low (for many quarterbacks it isn't), but for Stafford it would mark a career low for a 16-game season.

Granted, it's not like Stafford or the Lions are struggling per se. The team is 5-2. With star wideout Calvin Johnson hurt, the Lions have simply dialed back the offense. They've chosen to win with defense and the run game.

You know, just like Dallas. And Seattle. Old-school football may be old, but it ain't dead.

Still, this week Stafford and the Lions get an Atlanta Falcons defense that ranks 29th in the NFL against the pass. Our pundits view that juicy matchup as just what the doctor ordered to cure Stafford's sluggish stats.

Fantasy football owners rejoice!

Others receiving votes: Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (4 votes), Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (3 votes), Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote), Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote)

More Passing Yards: Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Winner: Aaron Rodgers (13 votes)

One thing's for sure: You won't see New Orleans' Drew Brees or Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers mentioned as "sleeper" quarterbacks. The pair are among the best to play their position in the last quarter-century. Both will likely one day be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

Brees ranks second in the NFL in passing yardage, averaging nearly 320 yards per game. It's a pace that would net Brees an NFL-record fourth consecutive 5,000-yard passing season.

Meanwhile, Rodgers ranks second in the NFL in passer rating, trailing only Peyton Manning. Since his admonition that Green Bay fans need to "relax," there hasn't been a hotter passer (or team) than Rodgers and the Pack.

Rob Reischel of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has more on Rodgers' torrid play of late:

"

Rodgers has been so good for so long now that he's almost taken for granted in many circles. But Rodgers is in the midst of one of the greatest stretches of his career, putting up Madden-like video game numbers on a weekly basis.

The latest example came Sunday, when he powered Green Bay to a 38-17 rout of Carolina. Rodgers posted a 154.5 passer rating, the second-best mark of his career and the third-best in franchise history.

Rodgers joined New England's Tom Brady (2007) as just the second quarterback to ever throw for three touchdowns and zero interceptions in four straight games. And Rodgers posted his sixth straight game without throwing an interception, tying Bart Starr's franchise record set in 1964.

"

With Rodgers and the Packers rolling and Brees and the Saints struggling below .500, it's not surprising that Rodgers gets the nod as the projected winner of this prime-time duel.

The size of the margin, however, is another story.

Over/Under: 1.5 Turnovers for Jay Cutler

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Winner: Over (11 votes)

All is not well in the Windy City.

The Bears sit at 3-4. After last week's third home loss of the season, wide receiver Brandon Marshall unloaded in the locker room. Many pundits supposed that Marshall's tirade was directed in large part at his quarterback and close friend.

You see, the Bears have been plagued in 2014 by their arch-nemesis, a person more dangerous to the team than Lex Luthor and Doctor Doom combined:

"Bad Jay Cutler."

In Chicago's three wins this year, Cutler has zero interceptions. In their four losses, he has seven, many of which came at back-breaking points in the game.

Former Bears great Brian Urlacher was withering in his criticism of Cutler while speaking with Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune:

"

We say it every year how talented Jay is ... how much talent. But the NFL is not a talent contest. It's a winning contest. You want to win football games, that's what it comes down to.

If your quarterback can't make plays in certain situations for you to win games, he's not getting the job done.

Financially, he is one of the elite guys in the NFL. You look at his contract, he was paid like an elite quarterback, if I am not mistaken. He just hasn't produced like an elite quarterback.

You look at the guys ... the Bradys, the Mannings, the Rodgerses, the Breeses ... those guys win every year. Even with no one around them. (Aaron) Rodgers has no offensive line, he wins. (Tom) Brady has no receivers, he wins. You look at Jay, he's got Brandon (Marshall), Alshon (Jeffery), Matt (Forte) and a great offensive line ... Martellus Bennett ... and they can't seem to put it together for some reason.

"

With the Bears set to face a New England team that ranks second in the NFL in takeaways, our writers feel that Cutler's set for at least two more turnovers Sunday.

If that leads to yet another Bears loss, then sports talk radio in Chicago is going to be very interesting come Monday morning.

Sleeper RB Performance

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Winner: Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders (4 votes)

If you mention the name "Darren McFadden" to a fantasy football enthusiast, odds are it will be met by a grumble at best and there's a good likelihood they'll throw in some colorful language.

Something being thrown at you is also a distinct possibility.

So why would four of our experts pick a running back who hasn't gained 100 yards in a game since September of 2013 as this week's breakout ball-carrier? What could possibly inspire them to select a back who hasn't averaged four yards a carry since 2011 as this week's surprise backfield star?

Oh yeah. Oakland's playing Cleveland.

The Browns are to run defense what Green Day is to complex guitar melodies. In other words, they've been hitting sour, three-chord notes all season long.

The Browns rank dead last in run defense in 2014, allowing a staggering 155.5 yards per game.

Let's put it this way: Prior to last week, Denard Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars had 48 career carries for 160 yards over 22 career games.

Robinson gashed the Browns for 127 yards on 22 totes. In one game.

Others receiving votes: Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (3 votes), Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (2 votes), Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), James Starks, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions (1 vote), Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints (1 vote), Stepfan Taylor, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote)

More Total Yards: Giovani Bernard or Justin Forsett

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Winner: Giovani Bernard (11 votes)

Week 7 was not kind to the Cincinnati Bengals or running back Giovani Bernard.

Not only were the Bengals blasted by the Colts, 27-0, but the Indianapolis defense held Bernard completely in check. The second-year pro tallied only 16 total yards on nine touches and absorbed a number of punishing hits along the way.

Meanwhile, seventh-year veteran Justin Forsett has been a revelation for a Baltimore Ravens team that lost Ray Rice before the season even began. Forsett is just over a 100 yards shy of setting a career high for rushing yards in a season and the 29-year-old has gained a robust 5.8 yards per carry.

Forsett told Gary Mihoces of USA Today that it's simply been a matter of taking advantage of the opportunity he finally has to be a lead back:

"

Definitely getting more comfortable every week. It's been a long time coming for me. Seven years just waiting in the shadows. Just waiting (for) my chance. Thank God I had an opportunity. Just trying to seize it and make the most of it.

"

In Sunday's big AFC North showdown in Cincinnati, the team that establishes the run better has an excellent shot at coming away with the win.

Our panel's money is on Bernard, which is great news for a Bengals team that can't afford to see their winless streak hit four games.

Sleeper WR Performance

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Winner: Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (3 votes)

If you measure players by their 2014 cap number, there isn't a more pricey wide receiver in the National Football League than Mike Wallace.

This year Wallace's cap hit is a staggering $17.25 million. To say that the Dolphins haven't gotten their money's worth is something of an understatement.

Just like calling Here Comes Honey Boo-Boo a, um, less than intellectual television program would be something of an understatement.

In fact, Grantland's Bill Barnwell believes Miami would be well-served to shop the 28-year-old:

"

Wallace hasn’t been the same guy in Miami that he once looked like in Pittsburgh. While he did catch a key touchdown pass from quarterback Ryan Tannehill in Sunday’s victory over the Bears, he has struggled to get on the same page with the former Texas A&M star during his time in Florida. Wallace’s line in Miami, prorated to a 16-game season, has him catching 75 passes for 937 yards and seven touchdowns. That’s functional, but hardly worth the highest positional cap hit in football.

"

If our voters are correct and Wallace has a big game against a suspect Jacksonville secondary, it will become that much easier for the Fins to get something in return.

Of course, if Wallace has a huge game, trading him becomes a harder call. But hey, who said life was going to be easy?

Others receiving votes: Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys (2 votes), Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles (2 votes), Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings (2 votes), Eric Decker, New York Jets (1 vote), Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills (1 vote), Donnie Avery, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote), DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans (1 vote), Riley Cooper, Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote)

Sleeper TE Performance

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Winner: Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (7 votes)

For the past several years, Owen Daniels was a solid—albeit unspectacular—tight end for the Houston Texans. When Daniels and the Texans parted ways in the offseason, the 31-year-old signed with the Ravens as a backup to Dennis Pitta.

Now, with Pitta out for the year (and possibly longer) after suffering another serious hip injury, Daniels has been thrust back into a significant offensive role.

As head coach John Harbaugh told Ryan Mink of the team's website, the team couldn't be happier with how that's worked out so far:

“We didn’t expect [Daniels] maybe to be this much in the forefront, and yet he has handled it tremendously well,” Harbaugh said. “He has had a great season. He blocks, he makes big catches. Just can’t say enough about Owen.”

Daniels has already bettered his production from last year's injury-marred season and the writers here at Bleacher Report see the good times continuing Sunday against the Bengals.

Others receiving votes: Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears (2 votes), Tim Wright, New England Patriots (1 vote), Gavin Escobar, Dallas Cowboys (1 vote), Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (1 vote), Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote), Niles Paul, Washington Redskins (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Winner: J.J. Watt, Houston Texans (5 votes)

Those sneaky voters.

In an effort to dethrone the eternally enshrined J.J. Watt (who has now "won" this category eight weeks running), nearly half the writers here at Bleacher Report selected teams instead of individuals.

However, you cannot stop J.J. Watt. You can only hope to contain him.

The Pittsburgh Steelers found that out last week, when Watt piled up three tackles, his fifth sack of the year and a fumble recovery in Houston's loss to the Steelers.

According to NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter, if Watt isn't a serious candidate for Most Valuable Player in 2014, then the award has about as much significance as a People's Choice Award:

"

It's hard to argue that Watt hasn't single-handedly dragged the Texans (who, remember, had the worst record in the NFL last season) to the respectable 3-4 record they possess. In the wake of the Colts loss—during which he recorded two sacks, three passes defensed and that pick-six—Watt still put pressure on himself.

"Big play, but at the end of the day, not enough," Watt told ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli. "Gotta find a way to do more."

"

Hard to argue with that.

Others receiving votes: Dallas Cowboys (3 votes), Detroit Lions (2 votes), Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit Lions (2 votes), Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Seattle Seahawks (1 vote), Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote)

Over/Under: 15 Johnny Manziel Mentions

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Winner: Over (9 votes)

I don't know what's more surprising: that it took this long to get here or that we're here so fast.

After all, once the Browns stomped the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago, it looked like Brian Hoyer had cemented himself as the starter in Cleveland. The question wasn't when Johnny Manziel would get his chance.

It was whether that chance would come in Northern Ohio at all.

But that was then and this is now.

After a jaw-droppingly, cringe-inducingly bad game from Hoyer in last week's loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Johnny Football talk has ramped up and then some.

Some pundits, such as Bill Livingston of The Cleveland Plain Dealer, are already sounding the call:

"

I'm not saying Brian Hoyer -- who won the starting job with lackluster statistics in exhibition season over Johnny Manziel and who then played almost unrecognizably well for five games -- should be benched for the upcoming Oakland game. That would be a tough argument to make only one week after praising Hoyer in this corner for his work as a game manager.

Yet there is this: "The way we played (Sunday), we sucked. It sucks to admit that," said Hoyer.

And so: Why not Johnny Football for a series or two?

"

Given that the Browns reportedly considered inserting Manziel into the game during last week's debacle, another slow start by Hoyer against a winless team might just get him the hook.

Or he'll play lights-out and the topic will revert to Hoyer's impending free agency and its effect on Manziel.

Either way, if you're sick of hearing Johnny Football's name, you may wanna mute the call on this game.