NFL Week 7: The Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action
Don't let the NFL echo chamber get you.
Each week, 32 teams have something going on, whether they're celebrating a victory, regrouping after a loss or simply preparing for the next week while on bye. Yet, each and every week, the conversation surrounding the league makes it seems as if only a couple of teams and players participated.
I understand that people feed on drama and love big moments. I also get that the league has a number of teams that are more buzzworthy than the rest, but the NFL is far too big an enterprise to be distilled into only a few moments on any given Sunday.
Top 10 plays? What about the myriad complementary plays that set up that big moment?
Local radio callers harping on what looked like a terrible coaching decision? What about all of the key moments that informed that decision? Maybe, just maybe, the context of the situation deserves a little more than random yelling.
More than any other American sport, the NFL is a menagerie of moving parts and decisions that make everything that much more complex than it may seem on a cursory glance. Don't fall into the trap of believing everything can be figured out by those who shout the loudest.
To prepare you to make those decisions for yourself as you watch the action this weekend, here's a comprehensive look at what you need to know for each and every game.
Biggest Questions
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Do the Cincinnati Bengals or Indianapolis Colts Show Up Bigger in a Big Matchup?
Both the Bengals and Colts are fantastic teams on paper, but many are waiting for both squads to really take that next step forward into being one of the elite teams in the NFL on a year-in, year-out basis.
Both teams benefit not only from the recent downward decline of the conference but also the current state of perennial powerhouses in their respective divisions.
While both are good teams, both can also fold like a house of cards in games like this.
Can Colin Kaepernick Keep Up in a Shootout?
With so many San Francisco 49ers defenders out for this game (more on that later), the Broncos should be able to put up some points. This means Kaepernick needs to be on his A-game.
A few turnovers here or wild throws there, and a very talented 49ers team could get blown out.
Will Rookie Passers Continue to Take Steps Forward?
Though their teams may not be successful at this point, the Oakland Raiders' Derek Carr, Jacksonville Jaguars' Blake Bortles and Minnesota Vikings' Teddy Bridgewater have all been bright spots for their teams this season, albeit with many of the usual rookie mistakes.
You can't expect these young men to be perfect, but one can expect to see improvement on a week-to-week basis. Most importantly, with tough situations on each offense, none of these young passers can become too gun-shy or scared of making mistakes.
This is a learning year for each, and they shouldn't be graded on wins, losses or overall stats.
Did the Kansas City Chiefs or New Orleans Saints Learn Anything on Bye?
Both the Chiefs and Saints have a tough matchup this week against the San Diego Chargers and Detroit Lions, respectively. Andy Reid is famously good coming off a bye week (14-2 in his career), and both teams have well-respected coaching staffs (at least from a regular-season perspective).
These two teams going 2-0 might be too much to ask for, but expect improved efforts from what we saw previously this season or things might get worse before they get better.
Odds and Ends
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- To find out which games are available in your area, check out these NFL coverage maps, via 506 Sports.
- Who's calling your game of choice Sunday? Here are announcer pairings for CBS and Fox, via B-FLO 360.
- Football Zebras provides a look at which referees are working each game so you can tailor your insults accordingly.
- Can't make it to a TV? SiriusXM covers every single game. Here's the lineup.
- If you don't have satellite radio, check to see if Westwood One has a game playing in your area.
- Even if you can watch your favorite team, make sure you have the Bleacher Report Team Stream app for the latest in news, fantasy football updates and highlights.
Important Stats and Trends to Know
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Maybe It Doesn't Run in the Family
Due to the type of offense and competition he faced in college, making it in the NFL was always going to take some work for Oakland Raiders rookie Derek Carr. What he's been able to do (especially so early) for the Raiders has been phenomenal, but the start is even more impressive when compared to his older brother David.
The two could not have been any more different as college players, but people compared them anyway. This chart, passed along by Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle, shows that Derek has been sacked only three times in his first five starts, compared to his brother's 31.
The rest of the numbers are similarly stacked in Derek's favor.
Philip Rivers Already on a Historic Pace
I've called Rivers the early leader in the MVP clubhouse, but did you know he just broke an NFL record? Starting in Week 2 (against the Seattle Seahawks of all teams), Rivers has attained a 120 passer rating or better in five straight games.
No one has ever done that before.
A New Era for the Cleveland Browns?
Speaking of things that have never happened before...
Since the Browns rejoined the league in 1995, they've never been a road favorite by more than 3.5 points. Heading to Jacksonville this weekend, they're sitting as a six-point favorite, according to our friends over at Odds Shark.
That speaks to the respect Cleveland has been earning this season and how bad the Jaguars are.
Matthew Stafford's Taking a Beating This Season
Last season, Stafford only took 23 sacks. Because the offensive line protected him so well, it was considered a strong point entering 2014. What has happened instead is that Stafford has already been laid out 21 times.
Ouch.
A big part of that has been injuries on the offensive line, but remember, the Lions are also instituting a new offensive scheme. Change can make players think, and it's worthwhile to wonder if that thinking (rather than reacting) has caused some of the hiccups we've seen in protection and getting rid of the ball.
For what it's worth, Pro Football Focus has Stafford holding the ball about a 10th of a second longer on average so far this season (paid link).
The Last True Workhorse Back
When anyone mentions a "workhorse" running back, the first thought that should come to anyone's mind is former Dallas Cowboy Emmitt Smith. MMQB's Peter King passed along the fact that current Cowboy DeMarco Murray is actually outpacing Smith's most yeoman-like season, further saying:
"The Cowboys never handed it to Smith as much as these Cowboys are handing it to Murray. I asked Murray last week if he thought he could keep up the crazy pace, and he said, 'I think I can. I’m in the cold tub right now.'
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Either Murray keeps it up and has one of the biggest offensive seasons in history (at any position), things regress to the mean a bit or his body wears down—those are the only real options.
For even more trends, click on over to Nick Kostos' Ultimate Bettors Guide.
Game of the Day
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Who: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
When: 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
The Giants started off the season earning a reputation as a pretty good run defense. A big part of that changed after LeSean McCoy and the Philadelphia Eagles' rushing attack got rolling against them last week. Now, against DeMarco Murray and the league's No. 1 rushing offense, things could start sliding the other way statistically.
That, in a way, is the story behind the story in this one. Of course, everyone is going to talk about quarterbacks Eli Manning and Tony Romo (and we will in a minute), but Murray can put this game away.
Dallas is also one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league at 27.5 points per game, while the Giants offense has been awfully hit and miss. On average, the Giants have scored only 22.2 points per game this year, but during their three-game winning streak they were able to put up 30, 45 and 30 points.
The Cowboys defense has been better than expected this season, and Eli and Co. will need to bring far more effort and execution than they did against the Eagles.
As for Romo, Bleacher Report's Clarence Hill pointed out the biggest reason for his success this year:
"No longer are all the expectations and all the blame placed on Romo having to work miracles while making up for a poor offensive line, a suspect defense and inefficient running game as has been the case for the majority of his career.
The Cowboys are on pace to run it more than they have passed for the first time since Romo took over as starting quarterback in 2006.
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This is similar to what I wrote after Dallas beat the New Orleans Saints a few weeks back—that the Cowboys' success was fueled by a physicality they have not had in recent seasons. In their Super Bowl years, the Giants were lauded for a similar kind of physicality, and there have been glimpses of the same at points this season.
It is very likely that the team that wins this game will be the one that wins in the trenches. This season, that stacks the odds very much in the Cowboys' favor.
'Sunday Night Football'
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San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
This could have been a much better game than it currently looks like on paper. However, the 49ers have not been nearly as good as people had thought this season (mostly due to suspensions and injuries on defense), while the Broncos have been exactly who we thought they were.
On paper, this looks like a beat-down.
Throw in an injury to Patrick Willis, who will join NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith on the list of players the 49ers should have for this game but don't, and this is almost an entirely different defense and thus (I'm not overstating this) an entirely different team.
The Broncos are going to try to turn this into a shootout; quarterback Peyton Manning has an all-time touchdown record to break. While that won't be the primary focus of the game, it's a juicy matchup for the Broncos to exploit rather than waiting for next Thursday against the San Diego Chargers.
The 49ers can only win if they're effective on the ground and Kaepernick plays relatively mistake-free.
Matt Bowen broke down this matchup even further with his weekly Chalk Talk.
Rest of the Slate (Fox)
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Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (1 p.m. ET)
Because of their 2008 draft class, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and Ravens signal-caller Joe Flacco will always be linked. In this matchup, Flacco not only has home-field advantage but also the much more complete team around him.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (1 p.m. ET)
The Seahawks traded wide receiver Percy Harvin late in the week to the Jets, but one has to assume that isn't going to switch up the offensive game plan much against a Rams defense that has struggled to live up to its billing this year.
Though the Rams have given the Seahawks issues in recent years, Seattle should be able to run right down the throats of the poor St. Louis rush defense and get back on track.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET)
Before the season, a lot of people probably had these two trading places in terms of how they'd be coming into this game. However, the Lions have been impressive for all of the weirdest reasons this season (defense), while the Saints have fallen apart in almost inexplicable ways.
If Saints quarterback Drew Brees is content to get rid of the ball ultra-quick and keep out of the clutches of Ndamukong Suh and Co., that could be the key to a pretty easy Saints victory.
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET)
The Vikings get Teddy Bridgewater back under center, while the Bills are continuing to roll with Kyle Orton. This isn't the most enticing matchup, but it features two defenses that have been tougher than advertised this season.
Look for this to be a low-scoring game, with a result almost entirely dependent on which quarterback takes care of the ball better.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (1 p.m. ET)
The Panthers defense has been all fizzle and less-than-desired sizzle this season, especially up front, where the defensive line has had mixed results.
On paper, one would think that group and linebacker Luke Kuechly would be able to easily stymie Eddie Lacy and the Packers run game, but the Panthers have been only 27th in the league against the run this season. Oh, then they have to deal with Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers as well.
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET)
The Raiders played about as well as could be expected against the San Diego Chargers last week and came up short of getting their first win, and the Cardinals are much more imposing defensively.
Though Derek Carr has been able to elude rushers so far in his career, that will be put to the test. Expect a relatively easy Cardinals victory.
Rest of the Slate (CBS)
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Tennessee Titans at Washington (1 p.m. ET)
Washington may not be a very good football team this season, but it has some impact players on defense. That should be enough to beat a very pedestrian Titans squad.
The only wild card here is whether Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins can stem his current tide of crazy interception throwing.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. ET)
The Browns have been better than many expected, and much of that is to the credit of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. He has managed games well and put quarterback Brian Hoyer in positions to succeed. Credit too, of course, to Hoyer for holding off Johnny "Football" Manziel with his solid play.
The Jaguars have been playing better with Blake Bortles at the helm, but this win will be a lot tougher to come by than it may have looked before the Browns' impressive play of late.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. ET)
This is potentially the best matchup in a week of really good contests. If both teams bring their A-games, this could be a high-scoring, hard-fought, mistake-free battle.
Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton hasn't been nearly as good as Colts quarterback Andrew Luck this season (not many have), but he hasn't needed to be thanks to the fantastic play of running back Gio Bernard. The Colts don't have anyone to match up with Bernard, which could make this game a lot tougher for them in a hurry.
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET)
These are two frenetic teams going at it, so just flip a coin.
Miami's had a solid defense this season and has surprised teams like the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers by putting up bigger fights than expected (and winning the New England game). The Bears need to keep things close to the vest here and not take too many shots that can come back to haunt them.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET)
Another strong matchup this week pits another two teams that many had mixed up before the season began. It was the Chiefs (not the Chargers) who were supposed to be putting pressure on the Denver Broncos in the AFC West.
The Chargers are the much better team here, but look for the Chiefs to put up a fight. Their offense seemed to be clicking better just before the bye, and they've had a week to prepare.
Key Matchups
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Cam Newton (QB Panthers) vs. the Green Bay Packers' Front Seven
The Packers defense, led by coordinator Dom Capers, has become infamous for being unable to deal with mobile quarterbacks. This season continued that trend with a Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks and didn't look much better last week when the Miami Dolphins' Ryan Tannehill had three runs for 49 yards against them.
If Newton gets rolling as both a passer and a runner in this game, the Packers may not be able to stop him.
T.Y. Hilton (WR Colts) vs. Leon Hall (CB Bengals)
Hilton has been one of the best receivers in the game this season, and a big part of that has been the maturation of his play into true No. 1 receiver-type status with a well-rounded route tree and a mentality that takes over games.
Contrast that to Hall, who has been shaky for the Bengals this season, and the possibility for a huge game becomes clear.
Now, Hall likely won't be on Hilton the entire game, and he may spend more time on Reggie Wayne as both have spent most of 2014 in the slot. Still, look for the Colts to try to exploit Hall's inability to cover deep receivers this year.
C.J. Mosley (ILB Ravens) vs. Falcons Rushing Attack
The Falcons run game has been lackluster for a while now, as the decline of Michael Turner gave way into the decline of Steven Jackson. There's punctuated moments of "meh, could be worse..." but overall, this is not a phase of the game that is going to carry the load.
Yet, against the Falcons, it's foolhardy to drop back most of the time—especially when the protection of Matt Ryan has been so awful. Overall, if the Falcons want to win this game, they'll need to play well defensively first and foremost but also get some positive plays from a balanced offense.
Mosley, then, needs to make sure Jackson doesn't find one of those stretches of effectiveness or that Antone Smith doesn't bust off one of his soon-to-be-patented explosive runs.
Jimmy Graham (TE Saints) vs. DeAndre Levy (LB Lions) and Isa Abdul-Quddus (S Lions)
If the Lions defense is vulnerable in any way, it's against an athletic tight end. They helped kick-start New York Giant Larry Donnell's breakout party in Week 1, and then let the Carolina Panthers' Greg Olsen run all over them.
Graham is banged up, but if he plays, he could have a field day, but the Lions will try to cover him short with Levy and match up with him one-on-one in their effective "big-nickel" formation with Abdul-Quddus in the slot. How those two perform will be key.
Notable Injuries
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Eugene Monroe (OT Ravens)—Questionable, Knee
The physicality of the Ravens offense is a big part of any offensive success they can have this season. But with Monroe and guard Kelechi Osemele dealing with lingering knee injuries, that saps not only their talent level on the line but also their physical dominance.
Alex Mack (C Browns)—Injured Reserve, Leg
Mack has been one of the best centers in football for a long time, and that was true this season as well. Losing a player the caliber of Mack can bring down any team, but it could shatter a club like the Browns who are digging and clawing their way out of obscurity.
They should be able to handle the Jaguars, but don't be surprised if the run game looks a little less effective.
Eric Ebron (TE Lions)—Doubtful, Hamstring
The Lions' offensive skill positions have been a triage unit this season, and the tight end position might be worst of all (running back was in the lead for a while).
Without Ebron, the Lions are without yet another big-play possibility. As bad as the New Orleans Saints have been this season, they're coming off a bye, and the Lions have to wish they were a little more at full strength.
Rolando McClain (LB Cowboys)—Questionable, Groin
The Giants want to run the ball. It's been true for years, but this year they've been able to do it effectively.
With running back Rashad Jennings out, the pressure falls to rookie Andre Williams. It's a big break for him that McClain—who has been one of the better inside linebackers against the run this season—will likely sit.
Other Notables
- Kyle Williams (DT Bills)—Probable, Knee
- Kelvin Benjamin (WR Panthers)—Questionable, Concussion
- A.J. Green (WR Bengals)—Doubtful, Toe
- Jake Locker (QB Titans)—Questionable, Thumb
For how these and other notable injuries might affect your fantasy squad, make sure to read Eric Mack's Ultimate Fantasy Guide.
Bleacher Report Expert Predictions
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Check out the Bleacher Report writers' picks and predictions for the week ahead.
It was another fantastic week for B/R picks, with the aggregate selections going 11-3 and all 16 selectors going .500 or better with their picks.
Yours truly tied with Matt Miller and Mike Tanier for best of the week at 12-2, and Chris Simms kept his lead for the season at 62-28. At 56-34, I may need to break out a voodoo doll to catch him.
To follow how the B/R writers stack up against writers from across the web, check out Pickwatch.com.
Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.
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