NFL Picks & Predictions Week 7: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide
To my fellow members of #TeamDegenerate: Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season!
And it's a very special week indeed. You see, the public got the better of the books in Week 6. Thanks to some late-game chicanery in three matchups (Jets/Broncos, Redskins/Cardinals and 49ers/Rams), Vegas was left cursing into its collective pile of cash.
That doesn't happen often. How do I know this? Because the casinos in Vegas didn't build themselves.
I would compare Week 6 to the ending of Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope. The rebels (John Q. Public) blew up the Death Star in improbable fashion, leaving the Empire (Las Vegas) to pick up the pieces. All that was missing was Jets quarterback Geno Smith and Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins receiving medals of honor from Princess Lea at the conclusion of their respective games.
But this week? You best believe that it's going to be Star Wars Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back. I firmly believe that Vegas will be back with a vengeance.
It should make anyone who's thinking about backing a public squad nervous. I always pick with my gut, but I'm not exactly confident in some of my selections.
That's never stopped me before, though. It's time to make that money, peeps!
Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide for NFL Week 7.
Total Season ATS: 48-41-3 (including NY Jets on Thursday night)
Total Season Best Bets ATS: 15-15
All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.
Thursday Night Football: NY Jets at New England
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Final Score: New England 27, NY Jets 25 (NY Jets cover +9.5)
I can't remember a team putting me through a larger emotional swing over a four-day span than the 2014 New York Jets just did.
Last Sunday, I played the Jets at +8.5 at home against Denver. Everyone and their mother loved the Broncos in a romp, and I couldn't have been more confident in Gang Green covering the number.
And lo and behold, the Jets found themselves down by seven at the end of the game with a chance to drive down the field and tie it up. But the unthinkable happened. Well, maybe it wasn't unthinkable, but it wasn't the most likely outcome: Jets quarterback Geno Smith threw a pick-six interception in the closing moments to seal Denver's cover.
As far as bad beats go, this was the worst of 2014—and it wasn't particularly close. To have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory—especially after making the right pick—is a bitter pill to swallow.
And that's right, peeps: The Jets were the right play last week, even though they didn't cover. No, you can't convince me otherwise.
For whatever reason, I decided to go back to the well this Thursday night, and plopped down a few shekels of my hard-earned money on Geno and the Jets. Maybe I needed catharsis, or maybe I just felt that they owed it to me to cover the number.
Either way, they got the job done, and almost won the game outright. I danced with the devil that burned me the prior week, and somehow came out alive.
While nothing can erase the scar that the Denver game left me with, Thursday's effort definitely eased the pain.
Atlanta at Baltimore
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The Line: Atlanta at Baltimore (-7)
Ever since both men were selected in the first round of the 2008 draft, the question has been asked: Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco?
Arguments can be intelligently constructed for both men. Ryan has better stats, but Flacco has a Super Bowl ring and playoff success.
But when it comes to the Falcons and Ravens this Sunday in Baltimore, the question needs to be not about which passer you'd rather have, but which team would you rather wager your hard-earned money on?
And it ain't close. The Ravens are significantly better than the Falcons.
Poor Matt Ryan. Homeboy plays in front of an awful offensive line (albeit one battered by injuries) and the Falcons don't have a legitimate NFL defense. And Atlanta hasn't won a game outdoors since November 2012.
No, you don't need to rub your eyes. Yes, you read that correctly.
The Falcons haven't won a game outdoors since November 2012.
And they're going to go on the road and keep it close against a Ravens team that has the look and feel of a Super Bowl contender?
Get that garbage up outta here, and give me Flacco and the Ravens with confidence.
The Pick: Baltimore -7
Minnesota at Buffalo
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The Line: Minnesota at Buffalo (-5.5)
Over the past few weeks, Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner has frustrated the heck out of me.
His seeming refusal to include dynamic running back Jerick McKinnon and receiver Cordarrelle Patterson in the offense has been nothing short of stunning. It would be the equivalent of owning a PS4 and Xbox One only to jam out to Super Nintendo and Sega Genesis instead.
But there is good news! Per Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune, McKinnon has overtaken plodder Matt Asiata on the depth chart as the Vikings' starting rusher. With star back Adrian Peterson on the commissioner's exempt list, the Vikings need a jolt of electricity, and McKinnon can help provide it.
With McKinnon firmly in the mix and rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater entering his third NFL start, the Vikings represent a sneaky value, particularly at this number. I've backed the Bills in each of the last two weeks with Kyle Orton under center, but I don't believe they're 5.5 points better than Minnesota.
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer will have his boys ready to play. If Turner finally unleashes McKinnon and Patterson, they could end up winning outright.
The Pick: Minnesota (+5.5)
Miami at Chicago
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The Line: Miami at Chicago (-3.5)
In gambling, sometimes it's all about the hook.
Take this game for instance: The Bears are favored by 3.5 points over the Dolphins. With the spread at that number, I couldn't circle Miami fast enough.
If the Bears were favored by a field goal, it'd be a different story. There's a chance that they could end up winning this game by three. But I don't foresee a scenario where the Bears win by four or more, which makes the Dolphins my pick.
Dolphins defensive ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon will harass Bears quarterback Jay Cutler throughout and extend the team's Soldier Field misery (they're 0-2 at home on the season). While I'm down on Miami coach Joe Philbin and quarterback Ryan Tannehill, I believe they'll find a way to get it done in this one. I'm looking for big performances from both running back Lamar Miller and receiver Mike Wallace against a suspect Bears defense.
I'm not sure if the Dolphins will win the game, but stay within the number? I absolutely love it.
The Pick: Miami +3.5
New Orleans at Detroit
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The Line: New Orleans at Detroit (-2.5)
Yo. Lions fans.
I know I've only picked your team to cover the spread once all season (Week 1 against the Giants). I know you read this column every week and get real mad and think that I hate your team.
Well, I don't hate the Lions. I just don't think they're very good.
I know the defense has been excellent, but I just can't get past the coach/quarterback combination of Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford. Caldwell looks like he needs to be defibrillated during commercial breaks and Stafford is always a threat to toss a back-breaking interception.
Detroit's opponent on Sunday, the New Orleans Saints, were my pick to win the Super Bowl (yeah, not my best work). The Saints are coming off a bye week and absolutely need to win this game to improve their record to 3-3.
And I trust that the Saints—led by their trustworthy coach/quarterback combination of Sean Payton and Drew Brees—will go on the road and get the job done, even without a healthy Jimmy Graham.
To paraphrase the great philosopher Britney Spears: Oops, Lions fans. I did it again.
The Pick: New Orleans +2.5
Carolina at Green Bay
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The Line: Carolina at Green Bay (-7)
Take a look at the dude in the picture above.
His name is Cam Newton. He's the starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers. And he is a bad, bad man.
After watching him single-handedly keep the Panthers in last week's game in Cincinnati—ultimately earning a tie for his team—I'm now driving the Cam Newton bandwagon. To whoever that was I tossed out the driver's seat Grand Theft Auto style, I apologize, but it had to be done.
Newton has raised his game to a new level, and I now believe that he's good enough to beat any team at any time. It's something I also feel to be true about his counterpart this Sunday, Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers.
But Rodgers' club is favored by a touchdown, and against Killa Cam that's too many points.
Don't be shocked if Newton and the Panthers pull the outright upset, and I absolutely love them to cover the spread.
The Pick: Carolina +7
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
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The Line: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-3)
In the vast majority of games that I wager on, my money gets plunked down on the team with the quarterback who I trust more.
But sometimes, I'm forced to roll with the better all-around team. This is one of those games.
While Andrew Luck is somewhere between 500 to 700 million times better than Andy Dalton, Dalton has a better team around him. And I believe Cincinnati is undervalued in this spot.
It's easy to forget that after three weeks, the Bengals were the toast of the NFL. But a horrific prime-time loss to New England followed by last week's tie against Carolina has people thinking the Colts are the bet in this game.
But outside of Luck, the Colts are an average outfit.
Cincinnati might not have the better quarterback, but it has the better team.
Look for Dalton and the Bengals to eek out a close win and cover the spread.
The Pick: Cincinnati +3
Cleveland at Jacksonville
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The Line: Cleveland (-5.5) at Jacksonville
I've really struggled with my pick for this game.
The football analyst in me looks at this matchup and immediately thinks that the Cleveland Browns will win in a romp. The Browns—led by upstart quarterback Brian Hoyer—are a confident bunch following their blowout victory over the Steelers last week. Even without star center Alex Mack (lost for the season with a broken leg), they should be able to move the ball on Jacksonville's porous defense.
But the grizzled gambler in me looks at the number and knows that it's too many points to be truly comfortable. An exercise that I enjoy is flipping the home/road team and seeing what the line would be then, and if we did that here the Browns would be -11.5 if the game were in Cleveland.
And let's be honest, people: Are the Browns good enough to be favored by 11.5 points against anyone?
I don't believe they are. Give me the Browns to win the game, but Blake Bortles and the Jaguars will keep it relatively close.
The Pick: Jacksonville +5.5
Seattle at St. Louis
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The Line: Seattle at St. Louis (+7)
Everyone and their mother likes the Seahawks to cover this spread.
The casinos in Vegas did not materialize out of thin air.
The Empire Strikes Back, yo.
The Pick: St. Louis +7
Tennessee at Washington
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The Line: Tennessee at Washington (-5.5)
OK, #TeamDegenerate. You know the rules by now.
When two bad teams play, take the points.
And man, are both these teams bad.
The Pick: Tennessee +5.5
Kansas City at San Diego
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The Line: Kansas City at San Diego (-4)
The old adage says that all good things must come to an end, and last week something very and truly excellent came to a screeching halt.
You see, after opening the season by covering the spread in five consecutive games, the San Diego Chargers fell outside the number last week in Oakland. While they did win the game, they failed to cover the seven-point spread.
But if I were a gambling man (and let's be real, I love gambling like my brain loves oxygen), I'd wager that the 5-1 Chargers will get back on track this week in a major way.
Their opponent, AFC West rival Kansas City, isn't as good as it was last year when it went 11-5 and qualified for the postseason. The Chiefs are 2-3 and don't possess the kind of overall talent that the Chargers do.
It won't be a blowout, but look for Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and running back Branden Oliver to slice and dice the Chiefs front en route to a home victory. San Diego will win by seven or more.
The Pick: San Diego -4
NY Giants at Dallas
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The Line: NY Giants at Dallas (-6.5)
Over the course of this column, I've discussed the concept of teams being either undervalued or overvalued.
And when you have a game in which one team is undervalued and one is overvalued, picking a side to back is easy as pie.
Last week on Sunday Night Football, the Giants laid a Humpty Dumpty-sized egg in front of a nationally televised audience, getting shut out by the Eagles, 27-0. Because of that result, Big Blue are undervalued.
Conversely, the Cowboys are coming off a road upset of the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, and are now 5-1 and the belle of the ball. Because of those factors, Dallas is overvalued.
Plus, everyone and their mother likes the Cowboys to cruise to victory.
Throw last week's results out the window and consider those facts.
I like the Giants to cover the spread, but the Cowboys to win the game.
The Pick: NY Giants +6.5
Arizona at Oakland
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The Line: Arizona at Oakland (+4)
I know that Vegas is going to bounce back in a major way this week, and I know that the public absolutely loves the Cardinals on the road in this game.
But my football IQ will just not me wager my hard-earned money on the Oakland Raiders.
I don't care that they're playing at home, and I don't give a damn that they nearly pulled the upset last week against San Diego. They are the Raiders, and they are not a good football team.
Conversely, the Cardinals are a very good football team, and have their starting quarterback (Carson Palmer) back in the lineup.
I'm with the public on this one. I'm rolling with the better team with the better coach and the better quarterback.
Give me Arizona with confidence.
Let's go, Vegas. I'm ready to take you on!
Gulp.
The Pick: Arizona -4
Sunday Night Football: San Francisco at Denver
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The Line: San Francisco at Denver (-6.5)
Have you ever gotten into a relationship that soured after a huge fight, and then a few months later you find yourself wanting to take the person back?
That pretty much sums up my relationship with 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
You see, I loved me some Kaepernick last year. I wagered on the 49ers with near-reckless abandon, including in the Wild Card and divisional round of the postseason, and watched as Kap and Co. filled my proverbial coffers with greenbacks.
But then came the NFC Championship Game in Seattle, and the game-ending interception he threw on the would-be winning drive.
I was livid. I had spent the entire week telling anyone with two ears who would listen that the 49ers were going to beat the Seahawks and go on to win the Super Bowl, so whatever little credibility I had took a hit. And more importantly, I lost a ton of cash, so I was not a happy camper.
I broke up with Kaepernick after the NFC Championship Game, and felt amazing about that decision for a long time.
That is, until this past Monday night, when Kaepernick absolutely shredded the Rams and reminded me why I loved him in the first place.
That's the great thing about gambling: You can always mend relationships and get back together. And I'm happy to announce that Kap and I are doing great, and we're both very excited for the game this Sunday night.
It doesn't matter to me that the Broncos are the best team in the AFC. Peyton Manning is three touchdown passes away from breaking the all-time record? Save it for someone who cares.
I'm rolling with my boy Colin Kaepernick. This is the Super Bowl the 49ers never got to play last year. And they're going to make a game of it.
I don't know if the 49ers will win, but damn it they will cover the spread.
Reunited and it feels so good...
The Pick: San Francisco +6.5
Monday Night Football: Houston at Pittsburgh
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The Line: Houston at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
(Excuse me while I put on my best "used car salesman voice.")
Did you see last week's game between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts? Oh man, it was a bloodbath! Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton torched the beatable Texans secondary for 223 yards and a touchdown!
And if you loved that, you'll really love this Monday night in Pittsburgh, when Steelers receiver Antonio Brown absolutely eviscerates that downtrodden Texans secondary, which is allowing 272 passing yards per game!
Star Texans defensive end J.J. Watt? Don't worry about him! One guy can't do it all himself! And this is just the game for the Steelers to get right back on track!
If dynamic receivers destroying opposing defenses is your cup of tea, then Monday night's game is for you! It's going to be Brown, Brown and more Brown!
Catch my drift, peeps?
The Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5
Surefire Locks of the Week
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Best Bets of the Week ATS
1.) San Francisco (+6.5 at Denver)
2.) Carolina (+7 at Green Bay)
3.) NY Giants (+6.5 at Dallas)
4.) San Diego (-4 vs. Kansas City)
5.) Cincinnati (+3 at Indianapolis)
Best "Under" Bets of the Week
1.) Atlanta at Baltimore (under 50.5 points)
2.) New Orleans at Detroit (under 47 points)
Best "Over" Bets of the Week
1.) San Francisco at Denver (over 48.5 points)
2.) Cincinnati at Indianapolis (over 49 points)
Survivor Pick of the Week
Baltimore over Atlanta
Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!
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