Week 4 Waiver Wire: Top Pickups and Drops

We're beginning to get to the point in the NFL season when our data sample is no longer a fluke. Sure, everything within the confines of a 16-game slate is subject to high variance. But as a season wears along, it becomes more and more clear which trends are here to stay.

Case in point: The Jaguars are terrible. The Seahawks are awesome at home. The Patriots' offensive woes may run deeper than we ever thought.

These assumptions follow a similar pattern in fantasy, as Week 1 stars become obvious flashes in the pan or actually start being good at football. Kelvin Benjamin is here to stay. Allen Hurns, not so much. Spotting these trends becomes all the more important in Week 4, which starts off the year's slate of byes.

The Broncos, the Seahawks, the Browns, the Rams, the Bengals and the Cardinals are all off this Sunday, each taking with them at least one above-average fantasy option. You will, in many cases, be forced to replace said stars with rolls of the dice on the waiver wire.

Here's an updated look at who is worth picking up.

Top Pickups

Own Them Now

1. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers (35.5 Percent Ownership)
2. Niles Paul, TE, Washington (8.1 Percent Ownership)
3. Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams (25.6 Percent Ownership)
4. Matt Asiata, RB, Minnesota Vikings (40 Percent Ownership)

In an ideal world—one in which there is no war and no sadness and people pay attention to their damn fantasy leagues—all four of these players would have been on rosters last week. They were all mentioned in the waiver section of my early rankings piece, and each continues to bear fruit.

Benjamin, the Panthers' first-round pick, looks like this year's Keenan Allen—only more explosive and a better red-zone target. The former Florida State standout had his second double-digit scoring performance in three games, catching eight passes for 115 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh.

After excelling in a one-game sample with Derek Anderson, it's clear he's Cam Newton's top target as well. Benjamin has been targeted 19 times the last two weeks, putting him on par with a majority of elite wideouts around the league. There are going to be fits and starts here, as there are with any rookie wide receiver, but Benjamin is a WR2 in six-team bye weeks and may even emerge as an every-week start.

That he's barely owned in one-third of leagues is confounding.

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Speaking of things that make me want to mummify myself in a roll of paper towels, Niles Paul is available in more than 90 percent of leagues. Yes, the same Niles Paul who is 10th in the NFL in receiving. Yes, the same Niles Paul who has outscored Rob Gronkowski this season. Yes, the same Nil—OK, I'd hope you get it by now.

For as long as Jordan Reed is out—and he'll almost certainly be out for the third straight week, with Washington playing Thursday night—Paul is an every-week start. He's been targeted 20 times in his first two starts and has developed a strong connection with Kirk Cousins, who is stylistically inclined to look toward the middle of the field. 

Julius Thomas owners worried about their loss of production at tight end are looking at a godsend if Paul is available. His long-term value is a little shakier because Reed will be back eventually, but you'll be hard-pressed to find a better player for Week 4.

Quick, meanwhile, can probably be held off for another week. The Rams wideout had his third straight solid outing, gaining 62 yards and a touchdown in a loss to Dallas. It's a bit of a concern to see his targets drop to four, but he was clearly the top wideout the first two weeks and Austin Davis has to throw to someone. 

Right?

Bill Haber/Associated Press

I could write a similarly shrug-worthy endorsement of Asiata. The Vikings are going to run the football sometimes. Asiata, for the time being, is going to receive a bulk of the carries. With Teddy Bridgewater taking the reins at quarterback, odds are Mike Zimmer won't go all rookie overload on everyone and start Jerick McKinnon (even though he totally should).

While mostly bad as a runner across his 74-carry NFL sample, Asiata has shown soft hands and some open-field ability as a pass-catcher. His 71 total yards made him borderline usable as a flex in most leagues, and he's going to keep the job until McKinnon develops legitimate pass-blocking skills. You'll never feel good about it, but Asiata is a productive bye-week replacement.

Looking Long Term (and for Deep Leagues)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

1. Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington (28.6 Percent Ownership)
2. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns (15.2 Percent Ownership)
3. Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Baltimore Ravens (0.9 Percent Ownership)
4. Bobby Rainey, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19.9 Percent Ownership)
5. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (12.2 Percent Ownership)

Cousins, for all of his glory since entering the Washington lineup in Week 2, remains a bye-week replacement in most standard formats. For the rest of the season, I'd have him ranked somewhere in the 15-20 range—well outside the necessary ownership in 12-team formats. (An aside: Stop drafting backup quarterbacks when you have an elite starter. It's a waste of a roster spot.)

With the likes of Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton and Johnny Manziel (HA!) on bye, Cousins is the top guy you'd want as a replacement. From a long-term perspective, he remains a player I'm far more bearish on than most—even given his 427-yard, three-touchdown performance on Sunday.

Cousins averaged an interception every 20.3 passes his first two years in the league. That's not very good. Cousins has essentially been 2013 Eli Manning throughout his career. A scheme change under Jay Gruden seems to have masked some of Cousins' foibles, but he's played two poor pass defenses and has gotten away with a few bad mistakes.

There is a regression to the mean coming. How far Cousins regresses will determine whether he's merely a QB2 in two-quarterback leagues or if I look like a total idiot in a few weeks.

David Richard/Associated Press

The next few weeks will also be interesting for Taliaferro and Rainey, both of whom could wind up with starting gigs. Taliaferro, a fourth-round rookie out of Coastal Carolina, rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown in his first extended professional action. His performance makes the Ravens' running back situation look all the more murky, with Taliaferro, Bernard Pierce and Justin Forsett all looking worthy of carries.

For as long as Pierce remains out (probably not long), Taliaferro is Baltimore's more valuable back. The Ravens have made it quite clear that they don't feel Forsett can handle a three-down load, even as he's been their most effective option. Taliaferro has proved himself a capable option if Pierce goes down again or goes back to his 2013 form.

Rainey, active in the hollowed-out abyss that was Tampa Bay's Week 3 matchup with Atlanta, somehow walked away with 105 total yards. Those who bought into his 174-yard outing against the Rams a few days prior left happy despite the 56-14 outcome.

The issue: Doug Martin is coming back. Rotoworld reported the Bucs are "confident" their 2012 first-round pick will return for next week's game in Pittsburgh, meaning it's back to the bench for Rainey. 

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

But Martin might not be as good at football as Rainey. Martin has 23 NFL games under his belt. Twenty-two of them paint the picture of an oft-injured but competent running back—someone who lacks big-play speed but can grind out consistent yardage. Game No. 23 painted him as God in shoulder pads and has clouded everyone's perception of him since.

There's a distinct possibility Rainey winds up the lead back in Tampa as the season goes along. It won't happen right away, but he's an intriguing just-in-case option.

(Oh, you probably wanted me to talk about Hawkins and Kelce, huh? Well, umm, they're fine. Not spectacular or must-starts on a weekly basis. They're just above-average dudes who need to be owned in deep formats and even in some 12-team leagues.)

Drop These Dudes

Nick Wass/Associated Press

For Obvious Reasons
1. Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington (89.9 Percent Ownership)
2. Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers (98.8 Percent Ownership)
3. Ray Rice, RB, Free Agent (83.9 Percent Ownership)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings (95.9 Percent Ownership)

There is a chance Griffin returns before Washington's Week 10 bye, but it's more likely he misses most, if not all, of the remainder of the season. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Cousins' play relegates him to the bench regardless. 

Alex Marvez of Fox Sports reported Woodhead is facing season-ending surgery to fix a high ankle sprain and fractured fibula. Rice and Peterson are not currently playing football. 

USA TODAY Sports

For Performance Reasons
1. Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots (96 Percent Ownership)
2. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (96.3 Percent Ownership)
3. C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos (51.3 Percent Ownership)
4. Riley Cooper, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (97.2 Percent Ownership)

Amendola, for whatever reason, has been excised from New England's wide receiver rotation. He hasn't had a catch or a target in the last two weeks and appears superfluous unless Julian Edelman goes out with an injury. His offensive snap numbers have been more than cut in half since he was on the field for 61 of 85 plays in Week 1.

Given the Patriots' continued struggles at producing through the air, there's no reason to own any pass-catcher on the team outside of Edelman and Gronkowski. (Tom Brady is even nearing the point you'd have a hard time blinking if he ended up on the free-agent wire in shallow leagues.)

Bowe, meanwhile, receives more snaps than any Kansas City receiver. He just doesn't do much with them. The former Pro Bowler has six receptions for 72 yards in his two games played this season, with Alex Smith hitting him on half the throws aimed in his direction.

This is a continuation of their struggles to connect in 2013. Bowe set career lows in receptions per game and yards per game in his first season under Andy Reid and appears headed in that direction again. He has struggled creating separation on underneath routes, and his lack of downfield burst has become more apparent as he reaches age 30.

USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs are paying Bowe like a No. 1 receiver, which is high among the reasons their passing offense has looked like it's running through mile-deep mud this season. Bowe hasn't been an effective week-to-week fantasy option since 2011. It's about time fantasy owners realize it.

Neither Cooper nor Anderson has the excuse of his respective offense playing on a quicksand field. The Eagles and the Broncos are among the NFL's most prolific offenses, well-oiled machines that churn out fantasy points like cheesesteak and, umm, whatever people like in Denver. 

Their problem is production. Anderson, the supposed handcuff to Montee Ball, has 11 carries all season. Cooper, ostensibly the Eagles' second receiver next to Jeremy Maclin, has nine receptions. There is not enough upside to keep them hanging around when players such as Taliaferro and Quick crop up on a weekly basis.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

All ownership percentages are via ESPN