Fantasy Football Week 4: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

As a fantasy analyst/owner, you acknowledge there are going to be good and bad weeks. Not everything can pay off the way you wanted. If it did, we'd be millionaires living off our Sunday Las Vegas winnings, not toiling for hours in front of a computer screen.    

Bad weeks are just part of the experience. But for this analyst, it wasn't just a bad week—there was nothing but an abyss of sadness and despair that started at 1 p.m. ET and did not end until the Pittsburgh Steelers mercifully ended the misery more than 10 hours later.

Kirk Cousins is bad at football? Bang-up job, buddy. Joique Bell over Reggie Bush? Great call, genius. Start Larry Fitzgerald over Emmanuel Sanders? Seriously, dude, were you using crayons when you wrote last week?

Watching Sunday afternoon it felt like the only thing I got right was Toby Gerhart being terrible. Which, I mean, is basically the equivalent of fishing in a barrel of salmon. Got dinner right here guys!

So, yes, Week 3 wasn't Sunday Bloody Sunday the way it was a week prior. The injuries were fewer and farther between and for that we can all be thankful. It also, in the words of many prominent NFLers, allows me a chance to get it right in Week 4. Let's cross our fingers and see if we can pull this off.

Thursday, Sept. 25	Time (ET)
Sunday, Sept. 28	Time (ET)
Monday, Sept. 29	Time (ET)
Bye Week Teams
NY Giants at Washington	8:25 p.m.
Miami at Oakland	1 p.m.
Green Bay at Chicago	1 p.m.
Buffalo at Houston	1 p.m.
Tennessee at Indianapolis	1 p.m.
Carolina at Baltimore	1 p.m.
Detroit at NY Jets	1 p.m.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh	1 p.m.
Jacksonville at San Diego	4:05 p.m.
Philadelphia at San Francisco	4:25 p.m.
Atlanta at Minnesota	4:25 p.m.
New Orleans at Dallas	8:30 p.m.
New England at Kansas City	8:30 p.m.
Cincinnati	Cleveland
Denver	St. Louis
Arizona	Seattle

(Note: Please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 4 or are on the schedule for Monday night.) 

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Drew Brees, NO	25 Points
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	23 Points
3	Matthew Stafford, DET	21 Points
4	Matt Ryan, ATL	20 Points
5	Andrew Luck, IND	20 Points
6	Philip Rivers, SD	19 Points
7	Nick Foles, PHI	19 Points
8	Cam Newton, CAR	18 Points
9	Tom Brady, NE	17 Points
10	Tony Romo, DAL	17 Points
11	Colin Kaepernick, SF	17 Points
12	Jay Cutler, CHI	16 Points
13	Kirk Cousins, WSH	15 Points
14	Eli Manning, NYG	15 Points
15	Joe Flacco, BAL	14 Points
16	Geno Smith, NYJ	14 Points
17	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	13 Points
18	Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	13 Points
19	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	12 Points
20	Alex Smith, KC	12 Points

Top Dog: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Brees is yet to have a truly spectacular game in 2014. His 293-yard, two-touchdown performance against Minnesota was near-flawless from a real-life perspective but put him eighth among fantasy quarterbacks for the week—and that's his best outcome of the first three weeks. 

That should change in Dallas. The Cowboys pass defense sprung a leak in the form of Austin Davis, who threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns (against two interceptions) in Dallas' 34-31 comeback win in St. Louis. Davis, a former undrafted free agent out of Southern Mississippi, helped spring the Rams to a 21-0 lead in the first half.

None of this is surprising. The Cowboys have the NFL's worst paper talent defensively. Their half-decent first two weeks were also misleading; Football Outsiders' DVOA had them 22nd coming into Week 3, a ranking that will surely fall in the next iteration. Three-hundred yards and a couple touchdowns seems like the bare minimum expectation for Brees.

Sleeper: Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

The concern here is Bridgewater's surrounding talent. Matt Asiata has looked like a replacement-level back in his two starts, and it seems obvious Mike Zimmer doesn't quite have faith in rookie Jerick McKinnon just yet. One might advise against starting a rookie quarterback and rookie running back together for the first time, anyway.

Outside of Cordarrelle Patterson, who has been quiet since a big Week 1, Bridgewater is surrounded by a ton of non-elite skill-position talent. His second half against New Orleans devolved into a series of safe underneath passes; Bridgewater attempted two passes that traveled 20-plus yards in the air, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

In a week with six byes, though, he's going to have some value as a star replacement or in two-quarterback formats. The Falcons are 25th in passing yards against, with their below-average pass rush being the main culprit. Bridgewater should find his first professional touchdown and add some Geno Smith-like flair on the ground.

Beware: Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

In 2011, the Jaguars reached for a raw quarterback with a ton of physical skills with designs on developing him long term. That quarterback, Blaine Gabbert, was forced into a game by Week 2. In 2014, they did the same thing on Bortles, who debuted in Week 3. His season of learning lasted a whole two weeks.

Bortles looked better than Chad Henne. We can give him that much. But he also threw two picks and is surrounded by talent that is the offensive answer to Dallas' defense. Allen Robinson has been good the past two weeks and Allen Hurns possesses this innate skill to get open deep down the field, but it's not going to be enough.

Bortles is being thrown to the wolves in San Diego. Let's just cross our fingers and hope he comes out of the fray better than Gabbert. (Also BORRRRRRRRTTTTTLES!) 

Rank	Player	Projection
1	DeMarco Murray, DAL	19 Points
2	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	17 Points
3	LeSean McCoy, PHI	17 Points
4	Arian Foster, HOU	16 Points
5	Matt Forte, CHI	16 Points
6	Alfred Morris, WAS	15 Points
7	Eddie Lacy, GB	14 Points
8	Knile Davis, KC	14 Points
9	Donald Brown, SD	13 Points
10	Rashad Jennings, NYG	13 Points
11	Stevan Ridley, NE	13 Points
12	Lamar Miller, MIA	13 Points
13	Frank Gore, SF	12 Points
14	Khiry Robinson, NO	11 Points
15	C.J. Spiller, BUF	11 Points
16	Bernard Pierce, BAL	11 Points
17	Reggie Bush, DET	10 Points
18	Ahmad Bradshaw, IND	9 Points
19	Steven Jackson, ATL	8 Points
20	Matt Asiata, MIN	8 Points
21	Doug Martin, TB	8 Points
22	Darren Sproles, PHI	8 Points
23	Joique Bell, DET	7 Points
24	Toby Gerhart, JAX	7 Points
25	Chris Johnson, NYJ	7 Points
26	Pierre Thomas, NO	7 Points
27	Trent Richardson, IND	6 Points
29	Bishop Sankey, TEN	6 Points
29	Darren McFadden, OAK	6 Points
30	Justin Forsett, BAL	5 Points

Top Dog: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

I'm unsure if it's possible to lead the NFL in rushing yards quietly, but it sure seems like Murray is attempting to pull it off. The Cowboys lead back has rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown each of the first three weeks, the lone NFL skill-position player to pull off both feats. Murray's 385 rushing yards are 70 more than any other player.

Barring injury—a problem in Murray's first three NFL seasons—the Oklahoma product looks primed to run away (pun intended) with the rushing title. Dallas visits a New Orleans team that's been better against the run than pass on paper. The Saints rank 29th in passing yards allowed and 10th in the defensive ground game.

Much of that is matchup related. Atlanta doesn't run the ball, Minnesota can't run the ball and Cleveland turned in a pretty OK performance splitting carries between Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell.

Murray will be fine.

Sleeper: Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans

USA TODAY Sports

Sankey sits 28th for one reason: My lack of faith in Ken Whisenhunt giving him the bulk of the carries. The 2014 second-round pick got his most extensive work of the season, gaining 61 yards on 10 rushes in Tennessee's blowout loss to Cincinnati. 

The problem here is that Shonn Greene remains in the picture for some yet-to-be-explained reason. Greene matched Sankey's carries total despite compiling barely over half as many yards and was the recipient of the Titans' lone touchdown in the fourth quarter.

It's very possible that Sankey did enough to earn himself the lion's share of the work going forward. We'll know more as the week progresses. With the Titans headed for a collision course with Indianapolis' shaky front seven, he'd be a top-20 play if we knew he'd be getting enough touches. Whisenhunt's weird faith in Greene makes the situation too uncertain at this point, though.

Beware: Trusting Detroit Running Backs

USA TODAY Sports

Through two weeks, Joique Bell appeared to have supplanted Reggie Bush as the top running back in the Lions' rotation. He'd received more snaps, nine more touches and was more effective in nearly every aspect. I was beginning to daydream a scenario wherein Bush was slowly phased out, which I guess says more about my priorities in life than the Detroit Lions. (Whatever. This is a non-judgmental space, people.)

Cut to Bush compiling 99 total yards and Detroit's sole offensive touchdown Sunday. The former USC star carried the ball 12 times for 61 yards and added six catches for 38 through the air, as Bell's day was spent haplessly diving into a wall for a series of two-yard gains. Bell was not targeted in the passing game and had 33 yards on his 15 carries.

It seems like only an injury can un-muddy this situation.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Calvin Johnson, DET	18 Points
2	Dez Bryant, DAL	16 Points
3	Julio Jones, ATL	16 Points
4	Antonio Brown, PIT	15 Points
5	Brandon Marshall, CHI	15 Points
6	Jordy Nelson, GB	14 Points
7	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	13 Points
8	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	12 Points
9	Pierre Garcon, WAS	12 Points
10	Andre Johnson, HOU	11 Points
11	Randall Cobb, GB	11 Points
12	Steve Smith, BAL	10 Points
13	Julian Edelman, NE	10 Points
14	Mike Wallace, MIA	10 Points
15	Victor Cruz, NYG	9 Points
16	Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN	9 Points
17	Michael Crabtree, SF	9 Points
18	Keenan Allen, SD	8 Points
19	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	8 Points
20	Brandin Cooks, NO	8 Points
21	DeSean Jackson, WSH	8 Points
22	T.Y. Hilton, IND	8 Points
23	Vincent Jackson, TB	7 Points
24	Reggie Wayne, IND	7 Points
25	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	7 Points
26	Roddy White, ATL	7 Points
27	Eric Decker, NYJ	6 Points
28	Marques Colston, NO	6 Points
29	Sammy Watkins, BUF	6 Points
30	Golden Tate, DET	6 Points
31	James Jones, OAK	6 Points
32	Kendall Wright, TEN	6 Points
33	Allen Robinson, JAX	5 Points
34	Terrance Williams, DAL	5 Points
35	Greg Jennings, MIN	5 Points
36	Cecil Shorts, JAX	5 Points
37	Stevie Johnson, SF	5 Points
38	Jordan Matthews, PHI	5 Points
39	Markus Wheaton, PIT	4 Points
40	Eddie Royal, SD	4 Points

Top Dog: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

Reasons to worry: Johnson has failed to score in two of the first three weeks and five of his last six games dating back to last season; the Lions have scored two offensive touchdowns in as many Sundays; the polar ice caps are melting and will probably cause the end of mankind someday.

Reasons to not worry: He's Calvin Johnson; he's playing a bad Jets secondary; he's fourth in the NFL in receiving; He's Calvin (Middle Name Not Listed) Johnson; we'll all probably be long gone from this planet by the time those ice caps wipe everyone out.

Yay!

Sleeper: Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

There is not much in terms of sleepers at wide receiver, unless you feel like being insulted while I extol the virtues of Kelvin Benjamin. The first three weeks have done enough to prove dude is pretty good. Or, even if he isn't that great, that the Panthers have no other options available.

So let's instead use this space on Robinson, who could emerge from Jacksonville's funnel cloud of doom at receiver to be a low-end flex play. After being shut out in Week 1, Robinson has compiled 154 yards over the last two weeks and was Bortles' favorite target Sunday.

Either Cecil Shorts or Robinson will have a fine game this week. Figuring out which one involves a lot of crossed fingers.

Beware: Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

This is the Jaguars passing game. For all we know Robinson may have 10 total targets the next five weeks. Know that if you put him into your lineup this week there's an inherent risk. And by inherent risk I mean you finding my address on the internet and sending me a hand-written, expletive-laden screed with a picture of your middle finger attached.

(Sorry in advance.)

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Jimmy Graham, NO	14 Points
2	Rob Gronkowski, NE	10 Points
3	Greg Olsen, CAR	9 Points
4	Delanie Walker, TEN	7 Points
5	Niles Paul, WAS	7 Points
6	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7 Points
7	Antonio Gates, SD	6 Points
8	Larry Donnell, NYG	6 Points
9	Jason Witten, DAL	6 Points
10	Zach Ertz, PHI	5 Points
11	Travis Kelce, KC	5 Points
12	Owen Daniels, BAL	4 Points
13	Heath Miller, PIT	4 Points
14	Dwayne Allen, IND	4 Points
15	Charles Clay, MIA	4 Points

Top Dog: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints

As we noted last week, this space is no longer being used to write about football. You know Jimmy Graham is good. I know Jimmy Graham is good. Instead, we use this space mainly to give me an opportunity to be a stupid human being.

This week, we have "Ignition Remix: Jimmy Graham Edition":

It's the remix to ignition
New Orleans offense edition
Drew Brees throwin' those passes
Please don't leave I was kiddin'

(Note: If you have Jimmy Graham Nonsense of the Week requests, my Twitter account is down at the bottom of the page. Feel free to send them along.)

Sleeper: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Kelce's slow ascent up the tight end rankings continued in Week 3, as the second-year pro was at the receiving end of a 20-yard touchdown from Alex Smith. Outside the top players, finding value at tight end is always tricky on a week-to-week basis, and Kelce isn't going to be a weekly nine-point guy.

The Chiefs offense isn't exactly prolific. With Kelce getting a handful of targets a week, he'll probably end up closer to the low-end starter range than a top-10 guy the rest of the way. That said, there's not much of value available in most leagues. Kelce might sneak in the end zone against a New England team that's only done an OK job of covering tight ends thus far.

Beware: Niles Paul, Washington

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

After three straight stellar outings, Paul has rightfully earned a top-five ranking. He's 10th in the NFL in receiving yards, and Kirk Cousins' entry to the starting lineup is a positive development for Washington tight ends. 

Whether that'll be Paul or Jordan Reed next week remains to be seen. Reed has missed each of the last two weeks with a hamstring injury but should be nearing a return. A Thursday night game will in all likelihood force Reed to wait until Week 5's game against Seattle, and Paul should be started in all formats if he's the starter.

Just be ready with a backup plan in case Reed decides to give it a go.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projection
1	Detroit Lions	at New York Jets	13 Points
2	Carolina Panthers	at Baltimore Ravens	12 Points
3	Houston Texans	vs. Buffalo Bills	12 Points
4	Miami Dolphins	at Oakland Raiders	11 Points
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11 Points
6	San Diego Chargers	vs. Jacksonville Jaguars	10 Points
7	New England Patriots	at Kansas City Chiefs	9 Points
8	New York Giants	at Washington	9 Points
9	Indianapolis Colts	vs. Tennessee Titans	8 Points
10	Buffalo Bills	at Houston Texans	8 Points
11	Atlanta Falcons	at Minnesota Vikings	7 Points
12	New Orleans Saints	at Dallas Cowboys	7 Points
13	San Francisco 49ers	vs. Philadelphia Eagles	6 Points
14	Oakland Raiders	vs. Miami Dolphins	6 Points
15	Washington	vs. New York Giants	6 Points

Top Dog: Detroit Lions

The Lions have staked their claim among the best defenses in football. They're third in opposing passing yards and second in both opposing rushing yards and points against. The Bengals are the only team to give up fewer points; no team has given up fewer yards.

There is little reason to think the gravy train will stop in Week 4. The Jets look improved from their 2013 offensive form but still have the skill-position talent of a bottom-10 unit. Geno Smith has passed for 200 yards three times since Week 7 of last season. (It's possible that number is four after Monday night; point still stands.)

Factoring in the Mortal Kombat-esque fatality the Lions handed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 3, odds are in their favor against a less-talented Jets side.

Sleeper: San Diego Chargers

Harry How/Getty Images

Owned in less than five percent of ESPN.com leagues, the Chargers have one of the NFL's most improved defenses and have the fortunate distinction of hosting Bortles' first professional start. The Jaguars are not good at football, in case you needed that spelled out for the 4,215th time.

Bortles might be better than expected here, but he's going to force balls into bad spots. He was picked twice by Indianapolis, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Greg Toler. San Diego might be the best bet on the board to score a defensive touchdown.

Beware: Washington

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Eli Manning plus another professional football team's defense has become a formula many use to stream defenses week-to-week. Manning's propensity for throwing to the other team is well-documented, and the Giants' combined 28 points the first two weeks made it look like we were headed for a 2013 repeat.

Not so fast. Manning hit target after target against a stout Houston secondary on Sunday, finishing with 234 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The Giants more than doubled their point total in the 30-14 romp.

What's more, Manning wasn't nearly as bad in Week 2 as the numbers show. As Grantland's Bill Barnwell noted, one of his interceptions against Arizona was meaningless and the other came off an uncontrollable deflection. He's completed better than 70 percent of his passes the last two weeks and looks vastly more comfortable in Ben McAdoo's system.

Washington's defense is anything but a sure thing.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	12 Points
2	Matt Bryant, ATL	11 Points
3	Cody Parkey, PHI	11 Points
4	Dan Bailey, DAL	11 Points
5	Justin Tucker, BAL	10 Points
6	Mason Crosby, GB	10 Points
7	Dan Carpenter, BUF	10 Points
8	Shayne Graham, NO	10 Points
9	Adam Vinatieri, IND	10 Points
10	Chandler Catanzaro, ARI	9 Points
11	Nick Novak, SD	9 Points
12	Blair Walsh, MIN	8 Points
13	Phil Dawson, SF	8 Points
14	Robbie Gould, CHI	7 Points
15	Shaun Suisham, PIT	7 Points

(Weekly reminder that you have a SLIGHTLY better chance at predicting kicker production than winning the Powerball. Again: SLIGHTLY. We'll keep this quick.)

Top Dog: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots

Most important stat of 2014:

Stephen Gostkowski was one of those -kowskis. He'll continue to be as valuable if not more so than his -kowski teammate, Rob Gronkowski, going forward.

Sleeper: Cody Parkey, Philadelphia Eagles

Parkey is still somehow available in nearly 85 percent of ESPN.com leagues. We're at the point of willful ignorance here. Parkey has scored double-digit points each of the first three weeks and kicks for one of the NFL's most prolific offenses. Get him on your team. 

Beware: Blair Walsh, Minnesota Vikings

Three-field-goal week aside, Walsh is part of a team heading for a top-10 pick. He'll also be kicking in his first Minnesota winter outdoors. We've seen him excel his first two seasons, but his chances are going to be fewer and farther between than the likes of Parkey.

Week 4 Waiver-Wire Advice

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or less of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot or could be solid bye-week options:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Kirk Cousins	QB	Washington	28.6%
Matt Asiata	RB	Minnesota Vikings	40%
Lorenzo Taliaferro	RB	Baltimore Ravens	0.9%
Bobby Rainey	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19.9%
Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Carolina Panthers	35.5%
Andrew Hawkins	WR	Cleveland Browns	15.2%
Brian Quick	WR	St. Louis Rams	25.6%
Niles Paul	TE	Washington	8.1%
Travis Kelce	TE	Kansas City Chiefs	12.2%

Grab Him Now: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers

[Grabs cartoonishly sized megaphone] PICK UP KELVIN BENJAMIN. DOOOOO IT. [Puts down cartoonishly sized megaphone, forgetting to turn it off and radiating a piercing sound in your earbuds.]

Sorry about that. But that's what you get for somehow making Benjamin less owned heading into Week 4 than he was heading into Week 3. There are times when it's OK to jump ship on an Allen Hurns-esque player who looks like a one-week flash in the pan.

Benjamin was never that player. The Panthers are, last I checked, still at the mercy of Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery as their other primary wideouts. Someone named Brenton Bersin made a 29-yard catch Sunday night. Undrafted rookie Philly Brown made six receptions.

This is not a talented group. The Panthers are invested in making Benjamin a star, and he's going to get ample opportunities to prove himself. Three weeks and two double-digit fantasy days don't lie. Benjamin is the Panthers receiver you want.

Stash Him While You Can: Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Jason Miller/Getty Images

While Bernard Pierce likely remains the starter, it's clear Taliaferro is his primary handcuff. The fourth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina carried the ball 18 times for 91 yards and a touchdown with Pierce out of the lineup in Sunday's win over the Browns.

Justin Forsett was effective with his 11 carries (63 yards) and remains a bigger part of the passing game, but it doesn't appear John Harbaugh is comfortable having him take the full workload. Pierce received 22 carries to Forsett's eight when everyone had anointed the latter to starter status following a Week 1 outburst.

At 5'8" and 197 pounds, Forsett is probably consigned to a second-in-command role. He's averaged 6.3 yards per carry so far and should remain effective if healthy, but his value probably tops out in the 15-touch range.

Taliaferro, meanwhile, may play himself into a full-time starter's role. He's not a must-own in all leagues but deeper formats and those in long-term keeper leagues should have him on their radar.

Wondering who to drop? Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or more of ESPN.com leagues you can feel free throwing back into the waiver pool:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Robert Griffin III	QB	Washington	89.9%
Adrian Peterson	RB	Minnesota Vikings	95.9%
Ray Rice	RB	Free Agent	83.9%
Danny Woodhead	RB	San Diego Chargers	98.8%
C.J. Anderson	RB	Denver Broncos	51.3%
Dwayne Bowe	WR	Kansas City Chiefs	96.3%
Danny Amendola	WR	New England Patriots	96%
Riley Cooper	WR	Philadelphia Eagles	97.2%

Top Drop of the Week: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

(Note: If we're being real, Danny Amendola would be the top drop. But I wrote about him last week, and he remains unownable for the same reason: He does not play.)

Unlike Amendola, Bowe is actually a part of the Kansas City Chiefs' offense. He's just not a productive one. The eighth-year wideout caught three passes for 32 yards against Miami, bringing his season total up to six catches and 72 yards.

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

While disappointing, this should have been expected. Bowe hasn't been a productive fantasy wide receiver since 2011. He had 673 yards and five touchdowns in his first season under Andy Reid and might be lucky to hit those numbers again in 2014. Bowe isn't a downfield threat, doesn't play in an offense that should be throwing a ton and plays with a quarterback who loves spreading the ball around underneath.

There is probably a two-touchdown game sitting dormant and waiting to come out when you least expect it. But there's no point at which anyone will feel comfortable starting Bowe and rolling the dice to find out. Strip away Bowe's name value and he'd be owned in 20 percent of leagues.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter