Fantasy Football Week 3 Predictions

Russell Wilson might have to look up to Peyton Manning in terms of fantasy and most career statistics, but the young quarterback tied Manning in Super Bowl titles last February and—when he's in Seattle in front of his home crowd—plays like the Denver Broncos' future Hall of Famer.

We chronicle the Seahawks QB's and Drew Brees' famously great home splits among other interesting fantasy nuggets in Bleacher Report's Week 3 Predictions.

While Wilson and Manning lock up in a Super Bowl rematch, we predict Brees and his 0-2 New Orleans Saints are going to play more like Super Bowl contenders back at home against the Adrian Peterson-less Minnesota Vikings. We also outline Week 3's breakouts, busts, rebounds, top matchup plays by position and waiver-wire options in our weekly fantasy forecaster, which has become a must-read for setting your lineups before the Thursday night game.

MVP

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Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Projected Stat Line: 350 yards passing, four touchdowns

This one might seem like an obvious selection, but not if you paid close attention to detail through the first two weeks of the season. Drew Brees is going to break through against the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings here.

Did you know Brees is just the 11th-highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy right now? And, even more surprisingly, did you know new Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has his team ranking No. 1 in fantasy against quarterbacks, per FFToday.com?

The Vikings haven't played a quarterback of Brees' ilk yet, so this is a prime example of small sample size. Brees is going to light the Vikings up back at home, where he was 8-0 last season with 27 touchdowns to just three interceptions and a 126.3 rating. Brees averaged—averaged!—354.4 passing yards per game at home, compared to 290.9 yards per game on the road with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Adding to the Brees projections this week, the Saints will be without potential breakout running back Mark Ingram (broken hand), who has carried more of the offensive load through the first two weeks. Pierre Thomas is going to step forward in the meantime, but he will do it primarily in the passing game.

To say this one lines up nicely for a Brees 2014 coming-out party is an understatement.

Honorable Mention 

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots (vs. Oakland Raiders)

Biggest Breakout Star

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Knile Davis, Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami Dolphins)

Projected Stat Line: 85 yards rushing, six receptions for 45 yards receiving and two touchdowns

Davis has had some big performances in relief of Jamaal Charles in the past four games, dating back to the playoffs last January and the final game of the 2013 regular season. The problem is they haven't amounted to much in fantasy.

Davis was not active in all leagues last week when he exploded in early relief of Charles (high ankle sprain, according to Sam McDowell of The Kansas City Star) for 79 yards rushing, six catches for 29 yards and two touchdowns. Since we didn't get Davis' points for that performance or his outburst in the playoffs last year, we are going to consider the second-year running back out of Arkansas a breakout star here.

We shouldn't expect Charles to play with his ankle injury. High ankle sprains can be debilitating. Even if Charles plays, he would be limited.

Meanwhile, Chiefs coach Andy Reid told McDowell that Davis is fully capable of doing all the things in the team's offense that Charles has done.

"I don't think it would change much from what you saw (Sunday)," Reid said. "(Davis) was involved in a lot of different areas."

Here are Davis' stats from the Chiefs' past four games, only one of which did Charles not start:

1. 2014 Week 2: 79 yards rushing, six catches for 26 yards (nine targets) and two TDs
2. 2014 Week 1: 3-1-3-0 (one target)
3. 2014 playoffs (January): 67-7-33-2 (seven targets)
4. 2013 Week 17: 81-2-5-2 (four targets)

You can go back even further to the December games down the stretch a year ago, when Davis started becoming a larger part of Reid's game plan as a rookie. In Davis' past six regular-season games, he has six touchdowns. Throw in that playoff game, and the young running back has eight TDs in seven games.

That is MVP-like fantasy production.

You have to start Davis, no matter what you think of the Dolphins run defense or Charles' potential to play Sunday. 

Honorable Mention 

Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings (at New Orleans Saints)

Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers (at Buffalo Bills)

Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia Eagles)

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Atlanta Falcons) 

New Orleans Saints D/ST (vs. Minnesota Vikings) 

Biggest Bust

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Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (at New York Jets)

Projected Stat Line: 35 yards rushing, four catches for 25 yards and no touchdowns

Forte is a huge part of the Bears offense still, despite his poor showing Sunday at the San Francisco 49ers. Next Monday night at the New York Jets, it should be another tough week of sledding against a Jets defense that has famously been tough against the run and is No. 1 in fantasy against running backs (FFToday.com) and No. 1 against the run through two games this season.

The Jets and 49ers are similarly tough against the run and running backs, traditionally. It stands to be back-to-back bust weeks for Forte.

Still, you cannot sit him in any fantasy leagues. You should just be thankful you haven't had to suffer through the starts of the running backs picked around him in drafts, namely Jamaal Charles (high ankle sprain), Adrian Peterson (indefinite suspension) and Eddie Lacy (concussion and a poor performance against the Jets last week). 

Bears head coach Marc Trestman aims to fix the sour running game, he told ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright.

"

Very poor in our run game performance. We're gonna throw that away, and try to work off where we got started in the Buffalo game, and try to continue progress and get better there. (San Francisco is a) very difficult defense to run against. But nonetheless, the tape has certainly shown us we have some work to do. It got our guys' attention, which is a good thing.

"

Forte owners have to hope for a token receiving touchdown this week to make their first-round pick something less than a bust.

Dishonorable Mention 

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos (at Seattle Seahawks)

Wes Welker, Denver Broncos (at Seattle Seahawks)

Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

Frank Gore/Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona Cardinals)

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Carolina Panthers)

Biggest Bounceback Player

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

Projected Stat Line: 120 yards rushing, two catches for 15 yards and three touchdowns

We understand the love for Stacy coming into the season, regardless of who the Rams have at quarterback. Sam Bradford (knee), Shaun Hill or Austin Davis—it won't matter. The Rams are decidedly a ground-and-pound team with power-running Stacy in the backfield.

Stacy started slow against the Minnesota Vikings in a Week 1 blowout loss, perked up in a Week 2 victory at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (a solid defensive front), and he will take off against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has yet to show its true colors.

Dallas came into the year projecting to be one of the worst defenses in football, if not NFL history. Instead, it has been No. 3 in fantasy against running backs (FFToday.com). The smoke and mirrors ends in St. Louis.

Even if it takes 30 carries, Stacy is going to finish as one of the highest-scoring backs of the weekend. Start him in all leagues.

Honorable Mention

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Atlanta Falcons)

Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots (vs. Oakland Raiders)

Tom Brady, New England Patriots (vs. Oakland Raiders)

Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (vs. Oakland Raiders)

Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions)

Pierre Garçon, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia Eagles)

Top QB Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams against fantasy QBs in 2014, per FFToday.com:

1. Denver Broncos (at Seattle Seahawks)
2. New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
4. Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
5. New York Jets (vs. Chicago Bears)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami Dolphins)
7. San Diego Chargers (at Buffalo Bills)
8. San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona Cardinals)

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver Broncos)

Projected Stat Line: 200 yards and two touchdowns passing with 25 yards rushing and a TD

Like the aforementioned Drew Brees, Wilson is famously a great player at home versus an average fantasy quarterback on the road. In 17 career home games, roughly a full season, Wilson has 33 passing touchdowns to just seven interceptions, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Wilson was basically a Peyton Manning at home. He is going to have to be, facing that same quarterback in a potentially bitter rematch of last February's Super Bowl.

And here's a neat Manning stat—at least for Broncos fans—from the NFL media notes: "Dating back to last season, Denver quarterback Peyton Manning has thrown at least three touchdown passes with no interceptions in four consecutive regular-season games, tied with Tom Brady (2007) for the most consecutive such games in NFL history."

That is a lot for Wilson to keep up with. The fact that the Broncos have been the worst team in fantasy against quarterbacks through two weeks (see above) certainly will help.

You should be starting Wilson in all leagues for this one, especially considering his home splits.

Honorable Mention 

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (at New York Jets)

Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Redskins)

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia Eagles)

EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (vs. San Diego Chargers)

Top RB Matchup Plays

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy RBs in 2014, per FFToday.com:

1. Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
3. Oakland Raiders (vs. New England Patriots)
4. Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
5. Cleveland Browns (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
6. Green Bay Packers (at New York Jets)
7. New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
8. New England Patriots (vs. Oakland Raiders)

Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Projected Stat Line: 65 yards rushing, five catches for 55 yards and two combined TDs

Bradshaw doesn't get the rushing attempts Trent Richardson gets, but consider that a good thing. It keeps the injury-prone veteran fresh.

The Jags have been the second most favorable matchup for fantasy backs through two weeks, and Bradshaw is coming off a breakthrough performance Monday night. Even if Richardson gets 20 carries for 80 yards and a TD against the Jags, Bradshaw is going to have a big impact on the game via the pass and spelling the plodding starting running back.

"Running the ball was a start for us (Monday night) and hopefully we're going to keep it going," Bradshaw told Stephen Holder of The Indianapolis Star.

Richardson fully expects a shared load in the running game this season, telling Holder:

"

I think it's going to be a good, equal load. Ahmad knows that once I get tired or once I'm winded, when I look to that sideline or he looks to the sideline, we know how to complement each other. It can be a drive where we have it going. I might have to look to the sideline and say, 'Come get me.' And I know if he does that to go get him. We work well together.

"

Those hoping for Bradshaw to take a featured role full time, forget it. Richardson will still start and get his. Start both backs in fantasy in this matchup.

Honorable Mention 

Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots (vs. Oakland Raiders)

Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings (at New Orleans Saints)

Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns)

Chris Johnson/Chris Ivory, New York Jets (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Top WR Matchup Plays

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy WRs in 2014, per FFToday.com:

1. New York Jets (vs. Green Bay Packers)
2. New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
3. San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona Cardinals)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami Dolphins)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tennessee Titans)
7. Atlanta Falcons (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
8. San Diego Chargers (at Buffalo Bills)

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Projected Stat Line: Seven catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns

We have a fantasy theory that value comes back to players in their second season in their new home. It has certainly rung true for Wallace in Miami, as he has a touchdown in each of the first two weeks.

Against the Chiefs' struggling secondary, we expect a huge performance from Wallace, particularly back at home. The Chiefs looked awful against Jake Locker in the season opener and barely held it together against Peyton Manning and former Wallace teammate Emmanuel Sanders last week.

Wallace was almost twice as productive at home last season, averaging almost 73 yards per game, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. Ryan Tannehill is coming into his own, and Wallace looks far more comfortable in the offense in Miami this year. Consider him a must-start fantasy wideout at home, especially in this favorable matchup.

Honorable Mention 

Cordarrelle Patterson/Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings (at New Orleans Saints)

T.Y. Hilton/Reggie Wayne/Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Vincent Jackson/Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Atlanta Falcons)

Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Mike Williams, Buffalo Bills (vs. San Diego Chargers)

Top TE Matchup Plays

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy TEs in 2014, per FFToday.com:

1. Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
2. Dallas Cowboys (at St. Louis Rams)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
4. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver Broncos)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami Dolphins)
6. Denver Broncos (at Seattle Seahawks)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Carolina Panthers)
8. Cleveland Browns (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns)

Projected Stat Line: Five receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown

After two weeks, you cannot be certain which Ravens tight end will show up in fantasy. Week 1, it was Pitta (10 receptions for 83 yards). Week 2, it was Owen Daniels (five catches for 28 yards and two touchdowns).

We figure it can be both this weekend in Cleveland. Clearly, Joe Flacco and the Ravens are a tight end-friendly attack.

The Ravens had to be watching how Jimmy Graham torched the Browns defense for 10 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns last week. We give the start here to the more frequent target Pitta, but Daniels is also a sleeper play for his potential to find the end zone in double-tight sets in the red zone.

Honorable Mention 

Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Top D/ST Matchup Plays

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Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy D/STs in 2014, per FFToday.com: 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
2. Dallas Cowboys (at St. Louis Rams)
3. Miami Dolphins (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
4. New York Giants (vs. Houston Texans)
5. St. Louis Rams (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
6. New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
7. Minnesota Vikings (at New Orleans Saints)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Carolina Panthers)

New England Patriots D/ST (vs. Oakland Raiders)

Projected Stat Line: four sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery, one touchdown

It should be plenty apparent to you by now this season: The Patriots are decidedly a defensive-oriented team again. Tom Brady is in the twilight of his career, while the addition of Darrelle Revis helps coach Bill Belichick and company play more aggressively.

The Pats are coming off a four-interception game against Matt Cassel, and they are playing another favorable matchup against rookie Derek Carr, who should find the toughest challenge of his young career in the Pats' home opener. This one will be blown out early, so expect Chandler Jones and others to pin their ears back, generating sacks and turnovers...if not multiple touchdowns.

The Pats are not only a must-start defense in this one, but they are the most intriguing defense in fantasy this week.

Honorable Mention 

Houston Texans D/ST (at New York Giants)

New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns)

Miami Dolphins (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Top Waiver-Wire Options

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Here are the top 10 most-added players in fantasy this week, per ESPN.com leagues:

1. TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
2. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts
3. QB Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
4. RB Knile Davis, Kansas City Chiefs
5. Baltimore Ravens D/ST
6. WR James Jones, Oakland Raiders
7. RB Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. RB Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings
9. RB Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
10. WR Brian Quick, St. Louis Rams

We have already gone in-depth on the best of the Week 2 waiver-risers in B/R's Week 3 Insider Notebook, and we will detail some of the last-minute waiver fill-ins on Saturday in Week 3's Ultimate Guide to Sunday's Action.

You might have missed out on those guys above off waivers by Wednesday morning, but here are some favorites by position, relative to matchup this week, who still might be available:

Quarterbacks

1. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia Eagles)
2. EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (vs. San Diego Chargers)
3. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns)

Running Backs

1. Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
2. Matt Asiata, Minnesota Vikings (at New Orleans Saints)
3. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Wide Receivers

1. Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tennessee Titans)
2. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver Broncos)
3. Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Tight Ends

1. Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia Eagles)
2. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami Dolphins)
3. Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Defense/Special Teams

1. Baltimore Ravens (at Cleveland Browns)
2. Chicago Bears (at New York Jets)
3. Indianapolis Colts (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Kickers

1. Shayne Graham, New Orleans Saints (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
2. Graham Gano, Carolina Panthers (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
3. Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears (at New York Jets)

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.