1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
There have been six 2,000-yard rushers in NFL history, including Adrian Peterson. The first five followed that up by averaging 49 percent fewer fantasy points the following season.
AD has performed miracles before, however. Even if he doesn't crash Eric Dickerson's record, he remains the best running back in football.
2. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
People forget just how good of a fantasy back Brian Westbrook was for the Eagles. Andy Reid's old running back had some explosive seasons that were, unfortunately, marred with injuries. It might have been an awful 2012 for Reid, but he gets a fresh start in Kansas City.
Jamaal Charles is better than any back Reid has had before.
Peterson had the miracle season, but Charles was no slouch in his comeback year either, rushing for over 1,500 yards despite erratic usage by his coaches. He has always had massive upside, and he will cash in on his potential this season thanks to Reid's offense.
3. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
He went from 20 touchdowns in 2011 to just five last season, a brutally disappointing campaign for LeSean McCoy and the Eagles all around.
At least some of that dysfunction is gone, exiled with Andy Reid to the BBQ capital of America, though McCoy wasn't too bad before he was injured last season. McCoy gets Chip Kelly now, who helped unleash some incredible statistical seasons from running backs during his tenure at Oregon.
It should be a nice bounce-back season for McCoy if he can avoid the dreaded concussion recurrence.
4. Arian Foster, Houston Texans
Did you know Arian Foster has garnered 1,115 touches on 2,598 offensive snaps over the past three seasons? That is a lot of mileage in a short span, even if Foster is still relatively young at 26.
The effects might already be showing with Foster being slowed down by injuries this offseason. Even if he returns to full health, Ben Tate might play a bigger role as the Texans try to keep Foster healthy and fresh for the stretch run.
5. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
When the 2012 season started, C.J. Spiller looked like he had taken the starting gig in Buffalo and ran with it. He was a fantasy football revelation before an injury and Fred Jackson's untimely return spoiled things.
Unlike his predecessor, head coach Doug Marrone realizes he has a gold mine in the backfield. He doesn't plan on limiting Spiller—or Jackson, for what it's worth—this coming season, which could lead to a huge year for the explosive back.
6. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are going to run the ball. A lot.
Marshawn Lynch has been a fantastic fantasy option in recent years, so much so that we are all waiting for the other shoe to drop. Will his massive workload make him complacent? Will opposing defenses be able to turn Beast Mode off?
I don't think so.
7. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It might seem crazy to rank Doug Martin this low, but hear me out.
Martin scored a ton of fantasy points last season, but what if I told you he did a big chunk of that damage in just two games? He ripped through Oakland and Minnesota for 74.6 standard points. That was 28 percent of his total output for the season.
The rest of the time, he was averaging a good—but not great—12.7 points per game. His value is predicated on the fact he has no serious competition for playing time.
8. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
What is this madness? Surely I have made a mistake in ranking Ray Rice this low.
The truth of the matter is Bernard Pierce actually looked better than Rice late in the 2012 season. He made more people miss and averaged better numbers, albeit in limited duty.
Pierce's role should grow in this Baltimore offense, which could give Rice more opportunities for rest than he has in the past. Rice should still put up big numbers, but Pierce is going to start eating away at his production this season.
9. Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
The Browns don't have much in the way of competition for Trent Richardson. But he had some red flags in his rookie season.
Most notably, Richardson enters his second season with injury concerns. The heavy workload as a rookie may have taken a toll on his body.
Then there is his pitiful 3.6 yards-per-carry average. Were it not for his 12 touchdowns, Richardson's rookie season would have been a major fantasy disappointment.
10. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
Yes, Chris Johnson has burned more fantasy owners than the sun during spring break, but things have changed for the better in Tennessee.
A big reason for Johnson's fall from fantasy grace after his 2,000-yard season was an offensive line that simply crumbled. Johnson became a tentative runner who found little daylight much of the time, and he became a big liability as a result.
Well, that offensive line has ostensibly been fixed. The Titans added one of the best guards in the league in Andy Levitre and drafted arguably the best prospect at the position in Chance Warmack.
At the very least, the excuses are evaporating for Johnson. He has every reason to put up this season; otherwise, he might shut up his supporters forever.