Drafting a QB With the No. 1 Overall Pick—By the Numbers

Now that we’ve had a little bit of time to digest the 2009 NFL Draft, we can, unless you root for the Raiders, likely find something good in what our squads accomplished over those seven rounds.

Listening to the “big sports network” and its draft prognosticator with his helmet hair (I heard his wife cuts it) dueling the new, young, draft expert guy breaking down the stances of offensive tackles for weeks on end became redundant and annoying.

Now that the draft is over, we're left with more questions than answers -- and I kind of miss 'helmet hair'.

For now, let’s focus statistically -- on the likelihood of Matthew Stafford leading the Lions out of the toilet.

Dreadful Detroit finally figured out Matt Millen’s front office acumen resembled Andre Smith's at the combine -- if the combine lasted eight years.

So in comes a new administration, and the drafting of a quarterback.

For the 17th time in the last 40 years a QB was taken with the first pick. Stafford could be the next Troy Aikman (1989), or the next Jeff George (1990), or, even worse, the next Michael Vick (2001). What are his hobbies? Has he been properly vetted?

In the 73 prior drafts, only three guys selected first went on to Rookie of the Year honors, none of them QBs. 12 overall number-ones earned Hall of Fame busts in Canton -- Terry Bradshaw (1970), John Elway (1983), and Aikman, the three QBs to achieve the honor.

Okay, accolades are nice, but what about some titles?

We can debate the merits of Stafford (38 on the Wonderlic), but this next stat alone explains why, historically, the risk is taken on a QB.

We know not all QBs selected first pan out, but in the past 40 years seven of the 16 signal-callers chosen first overall possess a total of 14 Super Bowl rings:

Terry Bradshaw 4
Jim Plunkett 2
Elway 2
Aikman 3
Drew Bledsoe 1
Peyton Manning 1
Eli Manning 1

I should point out Bledsoe (1993) wasn’t the starter for New England’s 2001 Super Bowl win, and Plunkett (1971) won his two in 1980 and 1983 for the Raiders, not the Pats -- the team that drafted him.

Of the nine QBs without rings, Steve Bartkowski (1975), the ageless Vinny Testeverde (1987), Vick the football player, and Carson Palmer (2003) can’t be called outright failures. Vick the human being might be another story. Maybe Vick the construction worker will succeed.

This leaves George -- the guy who still he thinks he should be on a roster, Tim Couch (1999), David Carr (2002), and Alex Smith (2005), not necessarily in that order, as the four biggest QB flops of the top overall pick-variety during the Super Bowl era. I’ll reserve judgment one more season on JaMarcus Russell (2007), but I think we know his destiny.

The Colts picked first the most times, a total of six, drafting both ends of the QB spectrum, twice -- Elway and Peyton Manning (1998), and also George Shaw (1955) and George.

Obviously the quarterback position is important, but you don’t necessarily need a guy putting up Tom Brady ‘07-like numbers to win. Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, and Doug Williams hold Super Bowl rings. Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, and Warren Moon do not.

Will Detroit's Stafford be like Dallas' Aikman -- the beginning of something big, a potential dynasty? And, yes, as Bill Belichick has proven you might have to cheat (Spygate), but dynasties are possible in this salary cap-era of the league. Or will it be pointed at, like Mike Nolan drafting Smith for the 49ers, as the reason the Jim Schwartz regime fails in Hockeytown?

With history as the barometer, teams have a decent chance (43.75/56.25) if simply playing the odds of going all the way with a QB taken first overall.

All I know for sure is that in about a year, Sam Bradford will replace Stafford as the NFL’s top paid signal-caller (without ever having to take a snap), and most likely be the next QB taken first overall -- provided we’re not all wiped out by swine flu.

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