LeBron James Will Never Have Easier Path to NBA Title
Maybe it sounds a little nuts to say this about a season in which the Golden State Warriors and the Western Conference at large have been historically beastly, but it's starting to seem like LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are in for a surprisingly breezy march toward a title shot.
Will LBJ and the Cavs have to dispatch an elite, weakness-free monster to secure a ring? Yes, almost definitely.
But just one: their Finals opponent.
Getting to that last round will be cake.
What About the Hawks?
This, of course, is the part where we're supposed to mention the Atlanta Hawks. They're the No. 1 seed in Cleveland's conference, which means that they've been better than the Cavs on balance this year. Atlanta's season has been terrific, a beacon of hope for advocates of systems instead of stars everywhere.
Not only that, but the Hawks beat Cleveland in the two teams' last meeting on March 6, making it three wins in four tries against LBJ and Co.
Here's the thing, though: The Cavs may not view that result as an indication of their vulnerability against their chief foe in the East. Quite the opposite actually, according to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst, who laid it out like this on Bill Simmons' B.S. Report:
"[Atlanta] had three days to prepare. The Cavs were playing their sixth game in nine days. Coach Bud [Mike Budenholzer] threw a game plan they weren't ready for, and they got down by 17...LeBron carried the Cavs back, had them with the lead early in the fourth quarter. Even though they lost the game, I think LeBron thought, 'I still beat this system, and we weren't even prepared for it. I can still beat it.'
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It's not just James' confidence that makes the Hawks seem less dangerous than many think; it's also the large samples of recent play that each team has provided.
If we start from Jan. 15, which was Cleveland's second game with a rejuvenated James (fresh off a two-week hiatus due to knee and back issues) and a rebuilt rotation that included J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov, the degree to which the Cavs have outplayed the Hawks is staggering.
| Cavaliers | 29-7 | 111.4 (1) | 101.6 (11) | +9.9 (2) |
| Hawks | 25-11 | 105.6 (6) | 102.1 (15) | +3.5 (6) |
This isn't statistical cherry-picking, either. This is the most accurate way to judge these two teams' qualities as they exist today. The Cavaliers aren't the same squad that they were in the season's first two-and-a-half months. The personnel has changed, as has their style and chemistry.
Atlanta has been fine since Jan. 15, but it hasn't been nearly as proficient on either end as Cleveland has.
And while we've spent plenty of time this season lauding the effectiveness of the Hawks' system and equal-opportunity offense, perhaps we've forgotten how much raw talent matters. The Cavaliers' starting unit of Kyrie Irving, Smith, James, Kevin Love and Mozgov has been rolling over opponents since coming together, posting the top net rating among five-man units with at least 300 minutes together this year, according to NBA.com/Stats.
Unlike the surging Cavs, the rest of the East has either struggled to hold steady or gone into a full-on free-fall.
Anybody Else?
The Miami Heat are an intriguing potential first-round matchup for the Cavs, as they've taken two of three from Cleveland this season and could present problems with Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic forcing Irving and Smith to defend. But Miami's health has been a concern all year, and as the season goes on, it's difficult to imagine an already battered roster suddenly overcoming such significant wear and tear.
Maybe the Heat can win an emotional game or two in a series, which is more than we should expect from the rest of the minor speed bumps in Cleveland's way.
Who else (Atlanta excluded) might test the Cavaliers?
The disjointed Washington Wizards, beset by offensive stagnation?
The Toronto Raptors, a defensive mess with a banged-up Kyle Lowry (back) who've beaten one team with a winning record in the last six weeks?
The Chicago Bulls, 8-7 in March and unsure what Derrick Rose might provide down the line, if anything?
There's not a threat among those squads, all of which have trended in the exact opposite direction of Cleveland for the past few months.
The happy accident of Cleveland's surprisingly easy road ahead is that James might want this ring more than any other. His career narrative becomes flat-out heroic if he secures a title in his first season back with Cleveland.
The remarkable feat of mashing disparate parts into a functional, championship-caliber outfit in a matter of months would add to his legend in ways that would separate him from Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.
It would prove that LeBron doesn't need continuity. He just creates it on the fly or supersedes it with talent.
The Enemy Within
If there's a real obstacle ahead of the Cavs, it might be themselves. Things are a lot better lately, and the results indicate that the team's chemistry has come a long way. But you still hear the kind of chatter that suggests the Cavs are a work in progress.
Love said he and James weren't best friends on The Dan Patrick Show.
Irving had this to offer, per Joe Vardon of the Northeast Ohio Media Group: "I don't want to say it's not been rocky at all," Irving said. "Obviously, [James] sees the game one way, I see the game another way."
The Cavaliers aren't perfect, but they won't have to be to cruise through the Eastern half of the playoff bracket.
A real challenge will await them if they reach the Finals. You could argue that the Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs and Warriors would each pose greater danger than anyone James' Cavs will encounter in the East.
But there's a reason that the Cavaliers are currently the odds-on favorite to win this year's title, according to OddsShark.com: They'll only have to win one brutal series against the West. And whoever emerges from the scrum in the NBA's much tougher conference will have done so at great cost.
If the Dubs or Spurs survive until the Finals, they'll have endured a historically punishing gauntlet.
The Cavs just have to beat the leveled-off Hawks and a pair of as-yet-undetermined pushovers.
Opportunity Knocks
A major opportunity sits in front of James, and he can't expect it to remain available forever.
The Hawks could add a piece in free agency, Washington will likely consider smartening up its attack (perhaps with a new coach), the Heat always reload, and teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics are on upward trajectories.
Toss in the boost that Paul George will provide the Indiana Pacers next year and the possibility that Chicago eventually stays healthy, and it's hard to imagine that we'll see an East this weak in the near future.
Much of James' greatness stems from his ability to read situations on the floor, attacking vulnerabilities with precision.
He has to see the East's exposed cracks in front of him; spotting chinks in the armor is what he does.
The Cavaliers may not win a title this season. Nothing's certain in the NBA. But they may also never get a better chance.
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