Projecting Toronto Raptors' Best and Worst 2015 NBA Playoff Matchups
The Toronto Raptors' 2014-15 season will be defined by what they accomplish in the NBA playoffs. With the right matchup, they could find themselves in the second round for just the second time in franchise history.
The anticipation for postseason basketball has seemingly caused the players to focus more of their attention on what's to come in mid-April and less on what's right in front of them.
"I think we need to stop worrying about the playoffs and worry about the next game," All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry said on March 20, per Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star.
"I think that's what we should start doing first. I think we're looking too far ahead. I think we’re worried about things that are two, three months away. We need to worry about the day-to-day stuff.”
A 6-12 stretch since the NBA All-Star break puts Toronto in a dog fight with the Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards for home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference.
Not having Lowry at 100 precent just adds to the anxiety. He suited up on March 24 against the Detroit Pistons but left early in the second quarter with back spasms, per ESPN.com.
Nothing is close to being set in stone in terms of seeding. These final 11 games could determine the Raptors' fate before the action even gets underway.
Potential Matchups
Even with the Atlantic Division crown wrapped up, the Raptors could still lose out on home-court advantage if they finish with the No. 4 seed but have a worse record than the team at No. 5.
Only two-and-a-half games separate No. 3 Chicago (43-29) from No. 5 Washington (40-31), with Toronto stuck in the middle at 42-29.
It's doubtful that the Raptors will fall any lower than the No. 5 seed, even with their horrid play in recent weeks. The Milwaukee Bucks are seven games back at 35-36, having just ended a six-game losing streak with an 89-88 win over the Miami Heat on March 24.
The Atlanta Hawks (53-17) and Cleveland Cavaliers (46-26) are out of the conversation, having staked their claim to the top two spots in the East. The Boston Celtics (31-39), Charlotte Hornets (30-39), Indiana Pacers (30-40) and Brooklyn Nets (29-40) are scratching and clawing just to be a part of the postseason.
Dwyane Wade and the Heat (32-38) could catch Milwaukee, but they're one bad streak away from finding themselves out of the picture completely.
Only the Bulls, Wizards and Bucks should be on Toronto's radar, barring some sort of dramatic ascension from a lesser squad.
Best: Milwaukee Bucks
Jason Kidd has turned the youthful Milwaukee Bucks into a credible basketball team that competes hard on a nightly basis, but that good fortune has began to dip with its recent six-game losing streak.
It's been two years since the franchise last experienced the bright lights of the NBA playoffs, losing to the Miami Heat in four games back in 2012-13. It was just the second appearance in seven seasons at that point.
With a roster chock-full of up-and-coming talent, Kidd knows how important it is for his players to embrace the journey they're about to embark on, per Mitch Lawrence of NBC New York:
"I think it's great. You couldn't ask for a better situation for us as a team, as a coaching staff and as players. Being young and understanding the importance of each possession going forward, because this time of the year everyone's fighting for something, if it's a lottery pick or if it's for seeding.... These are all-important minutes for our team to go through.
"
If that journey begins with a trip to the Air Canada Centre, it may end up being short-lived.
The Raptors lead the season series 2-1, although they did lose in their most recent meeting on Feb. 2, 82-75. It was Toronto's second-worst offensive night of the year, as the team shot 32.1 percent from the floor.
Still, the Raptors' numbers against Milwaukee as a whole have been steady across the board. The Bucks have even managed to do something that very few teams can do: make the Raptors look like a powerhouse on the glass.
A lot is riding on Bucks guard Michael Carter-Williams, who was acquired at the trade deadline in a three-team deal that sent Brandon Knight to the Phoenix Suns.
Williams brings plenty of size and length to his position, but his proneness for turnovers (3.4) and lack of a shooting stroke (40.1) continue to be red flags from his time with the Philadelphia 76ers.
The team is just 4-11 with him in the lineup. The transition hasn't been an easy one, something the Raptors may be able to take advantage of in a first-round matchup if the Bucks can't figure out a solution in time.
If things turn into a shootout, Milwaukee is going to be in a world of hurt. The Bucks are averaging 95.1 points per 100 possessions since Feb. 19, the third-lowest mark in the NBA.
They may catch a break if Toronto's defense—which is fifth-worst during that stretch with a defensive rating of 106.3—stinks up the joint, though. It's just easier to trust the team that can put up points in a hurry, rather than have faith in an atrocious defense to keep things on a level playing field.
The Raptors will be hungrier and more focused on the task at hand, while the Bucks will be happy to be where they are. This potential series would be a learning experience for both sides but more so for Milwaukee as it continues developing its players.
Worst: Chicago Bulls
There are four big reasons why Raptors fans should dread a potential seven-game series with the Bulls. They're all a part of Chicago's frontcourt: Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Taj Gibson.
The fearsome foursome has proven to be too much to handle for Toronto during its three meetings with Chicago this season:
| Name | Minutes | Points | FG% | Rebounds | Blocks |
| Joakim Noah | 31.8 | 9.3 | 68.8 | 7.3 | 0.7 |
| Pau Gasol | 30.6 | 17.3 | 48.6 | 9.7 | 2.3 |
| Nikola Mirotic | 18.0 | 13.7 | 54.2 | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| Taj Gibson | 17.7 | 8.7 | 52.2 | 5.7 | 1.3 |
It's been a nightmarish cycle of rebounds, blocked shots, precise passes and broken Raptor egos. Coach Tom Thibodeau has options coming out of the wazoo, being able to rotate arguably the best four-man core of 4s and 5s in the league so seamlessly.
A 108-92 victory over the Raptors on March 20 was a perfect display of just how dominant that group can be.
Mirotic had a double-double of 29 points and 11 rebounds off the bench, while Noah put together a near triple-double of eight points, 10 rebounds and 14 assists in 32 minutes. Gasol chipped in 11 points, nine rebounds and six assists of his own.
"They just kicked our butt in every which way," said Dwane Casey after the game, per Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca. "I thought we came out with some fight in the third quarter but it was too late. They punched us and we never recovered."
"You've got to tip your hat to them. They came out, kicked us in the butt, dominated us in every phase on the offensive end."
Falling to the mighty Bulls has become standard procedure with Toronto, having lost in its last four. The discrepancy between the two sides becomes more alarming when you look at how efficient Chicago has been in laying down the hammer:
They're an experienced bunch that's battle-tested with playoff scars to prove it. They also match up nicely with the Raptors at nearly every position.
DeMar DeRozan may have scored 27 points on March 20, but would he have done so if All-Star Jimmy Butler were healthy enough to have competed? If Butler holding DeRozan to 10 points on 3-of-17 shooting on Nov. 13 is any indication, then probably not.
Jonas Valanciunas isn't going to put up much resistance when he's getting beat on the baseline by Mirotic or outmuscled by Noah. A combination of Amir Johnson and Patrick Patterson won't be enough to fend off the NBA's second-best rebounding team at 45.9.
Whether you're running through the streets of Spain or jockeying for position in the East, it would be a wise decision to avoid the Bulls at all cost.
Christopher Walder is a contracted Featured Columnist for the Toronto Raptors at Bleacher Report. He's also a staff writer for Raptors HQ at SB Nation. You may follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.
*unless otherwise noted, all statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com/stats and are accurate as of March 25*
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
