Kings Schedule Breakdown and Predictions for Final 6 Weeks of 2014-15 Season
The look and feel of the stretch run has changed for the Sacramento Kings.
The most obvious change is, of course, the man coaching the team. Instead of Tyrone Corbin leading the Kings, it's George Karl.
The changes also trickle down to the lineup. Instead of having a point guard rotation of Darren Collison, Ramon Sessions and Ray McCallum, like the Kings had most of the season, it's now McCallum and Andre Miller. Collison is out with a hip injury, while Sacramento traded Sessions to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Miller.
The Kings are hoping these changes lead to results. So far, they already have, with wins over the Boston Celtics, Memphis Grizzlies and New York Knicks since Karl took over. This has helped lead to a 21-38 record overall and 3-4 one under Karl.
It all starts with a season-long eight-game road trip and includes nine more contests at the friendly Sleep Train Arena. So let's look at the season's remaining games, predict whether the Kings will win or lose and highlight the key matchup for each of the weeks still left on the slate.
March 6 and March 7
1 of 7
Key Matchup: March 6 at Orlando Magic (W)
Rest of Schedule: March 7 at Miami Heat (L)
The Magic actually haven't been bad since installing James Borrego as head coach, posting a 4-6 record. That winning percentage is superior to what the team posted under Jacque Vaughn.
Orlando beat the Kings on the teams' only matchup, 105-96, back on Dec. 6. That game was in Sacramento, but it's worth mentioning that DeMarcus Cousins missed that contest. Having Cousins in the fold should help the Kings' chances.
Sacramento was able to sweep Orlando last season with him in the lineup. While Cousins was solid, averaging 19 points and 12.5 rebounds, his best work came on defense. He and the Kings were able to hold Magic center Nikola Vucevic to averages of 4.0 points and 9.0 rebounds on 33.3 percent shooting. That's not too shabby considering he averaged 14.2 points and 11.0 rebounds on the season.
A game against the Heat is one the Kings could win. Both teams are on a back-to-back, which evens the playing field, plus the Heat are without center Chris Bosh, who is out for the season with a blood clot in his lung.
However, Miami's deadline acquisition of Goran Dragic from the Suns will help. The point guard has been able to shred the Kings with dribble penetration. His ability to break down the defense led to 12 free-throw attempts in two games versus the Kings, whereas he's only averaging 2.6 on the season.
Record: 1-1
March 8 to March 14
2 of 7
Key Matchup: March 13 at Philadelphia 76ers (W)
Rest of Schedule: March 9 at Atlanta Hawks (L), March 11 at Charlotte Hornets (L), March 14 at Washington Wizards (L)
The game against the 76ers is one the Kings need to win. That would have been true even with Corbin as head coach; it's undeniably the case with Karl. Yes, these are all professional teams that can beat each other on any given night. But Philadelphia is bad, and it's seemingly still trying to tear things down—even dealing players who were supposed to be part of the solution like Michael Carter-Williams and K.J. McDaniels.
Beating Atlanta is going to be a tall task. The Hawks are the Eastern Conference's top team so far. Plus, it's a matchup nightmare for the Kings. Atlanta is forcing 15.8 turnovers per game, which ranks seventh. The Kings, meanwhile, give the ball to the opposition like it's the name of the game, ranking 27th with 16.8 per game.
Sacramento could struggle with Washington and Charlotte because both teams are solid on defense. According to HoopsStats.com, Washington allows fewer points in the paint than any other team. The Wizards should be able to slow down dribble penetration and force the Kings to beat them from the outside, which hasn't been a strength.
Charlotte is one of the league's top defensive teams, ranking seventh in defensive rating. It also likes to play things at a deliberate pace, which doesn't mesh with the fast-paced approach the Kings have been utilizing under Karl.
Record: 1-3
March 15 to March 21
3 of 7
Key Matchup: March 20 vs. Charlotte Hornets (W)
Rest of Schedule: March 16 vs. Atlanta Hawks (L), March 18 vs. Los Angeles Clippers (W)
The tables are turned a bit here, as the Kings play two of the previous week's opponents again, only this time at home instead of on the road. That should bode well for a Sacramento team that's 13-19 at home and 8-19 on the road.
Charlotte will still pose the same issues it did the previous week, making a win difficult. But if the Kings can get the crowd into the game and set the tempo, they may be able to take the Hornets out of their game. By staying diligent on the glass, the Kings can force some fast-break opportunities. The key will be avoiding points off turnovers. Sacramento can't help Charlotte if it expects to win.
Beating Atlanta, even in Sacramento, is a difficult task. Its pass-happy attack will cause the Kings problems on defense, and the Kings' propensity to turn the ball over will be too much to overcome on offense.
The last two games against the Clippers, on Jan. 17 and Feb. 21, have been losses. But the Kings only lost by nine on Jan. 17, which was a home game. This contest is also at home, plus Sacramento has been playing a better brand of basketball under Karl than it did under Corbin.
Blake Griffin, who's been out for a few weeks, may be back by then. If he is, that will make a win more difficult.
Record: 2-1
March 22 to March 30
4 of 7
Key Matchup: March 27 at New Orleans Pelicans (W)
Rest of Schedule: March 22 vs. Washington Wizards (L), March 24 vs. Philadelphia 76ers (W), March 25 at Phoenix Suns (W), March 30 at Memphis Grizzlies (L)
Games against the Pelicans are always fun because of the two Kentucky products in the frontcourt: Anthony Davis and Cousins. Both men are talented and effective but in different ways. Cousins is bulkier and uses that to his advantage near the hoop. Davis, while still big at 6'10", 220 pounds, relies on his advantage in athleticism to do most of his damage.
The Kings are 1-1 in two games against New Orleans, with each team winning on the road. This trend should continue with Sacramento coming out on top.
The Wizards are once again on the schedule after playing the Kings earlier in the month. This one is at home, though. Still, Washington is a tough matchup. Its interior defense, plus its advantage in the backcourt with John Wall and Bradley Beal, will be too much to overcome.
Philadelphia is a team the Kings should beat at home or on the road. With this one at Sleep Train, look for Sacramento to come out on top.
The Kings have won two of three against Phoenix, and that was before the Suns shipped off Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline. Not having those two in the mix should allow Sacramento to take three of four from the Suns.
While the Kings beat Memphis at home on Feb. 25, 102-90, doing it on the road is a different story. In Sacramento's favor is that it's coming off two days of rest, but expect the Grizz to win nonetheless.
Record: 3-2
April 1 to April 7
5 of 7
Key Matchup: April 7 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (W)
Rest of Schedule: April 1 at Houston Rockets (L), April 3 vs. New Orleans Pelicans (L), April 5 vs. Utah Jazz (W)
The Timberwolves are the Western Conference's worst team. The Kings have already beaten them twice in Minnesota. While Minnesota was banged up last time around, missing Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin, plus it added Kevin Garnett at the deadline, Sacramento should still get the win at home. And winnable games can't be overstated to a team like the Kings.
Games against the Houston Rockets are always tough to call. Houston has won the first two matchups, although the most recent one, in Sacramento on Dec. 11, went to overtime. But Dwight Howard, who has been out with an injury, should be back by then, which will neutralize Cousins enough to give Houston the win.
The Kings and Pelicans will keep up the pattern of losing against each other at home. After Sac beats the Pelicans in New Orleans the previous week, they'll return the favor in Sacramento.
The Kings have only played the Jazz twice, splitting the season series up to this point. Sacramento fell in Utah on Feb. 7, losing the turnover and rebounding battles. Turnovers have plagued the Kings all season, so expecting them to win that category is unrealistic, but they've been a top rebounding team all season. A return to form in that department and having the game in Sacramento should be enough to give the Kings a win.
Record: 2-2
April 8 to April 15
6 of 7
Key Matchup: April 13 vs. Los Angeles Lakers (W)
Rest of Schedule: April 8 at Utah Jazz (L), April 10 at Oklahoma City Thunder (L), April 12 at Denver Nuggets (W), April 15 at Los Angeles Lakers (W)
Any game against the Lakers is one the Kings want to win. Beyond the two teams having history together in the mid-2000s, they're also divisional foes. The Kings have been better than the Lakers throughout the season, but that's especially true now, as the two squads are trending in different directions.
At this point of the season, the Lakers are more concerned with ensuring they keep their top-five-protected draft pick. Dropping a game against the Kings will further that goal. On top of that, it's the home finale for the Kings, which should provide extra motivation.
After beating the Jazz at home the prior week, the Kings will fall to them on the road. Utah has been solid after the break and is nearly .500 at home. Rudy Gobert has been a force since joining the starting lineup and is the type of rim protector who could stifle the Kings. That shouldn't be too shocking considering Gobert is The Stifle Tower.
The Thunder are in the middle of the playoff hunt. Kevin Durant also may be returning to the lineup around this time to round into form for the postseason. But even if he isn't, the Kings won't have an answer for Russell Westbrook if he's playing like he has in recent weeks.
Sacramento has beat Denver in two of the three matchups so far. The Nuggets have played better since getting rid of head coach Brian Shaw, but the Kings should have an advantage with Karl's familiarity with the Nuggets personnel.
The same could probably be said of the Lakers in the last game of the season, although they're not as listless as the Nuggets. Still, the motivation factor could be the difference here. The Kings have been refreshed by Karl and are playing for next season, while Los Angeles is playing for a draft pick.
Record: 3-2
Final Tally
7 of 7
The Kings will finish the last six weeks of the season just as they started the first three fortnights: posting a record near .500.
The only time the team really deviated from that benchmark was after Michael Malone was fired. The players lost motivation and were mailing in games. While that's not encouraging, it's better than the alternative, which would be Sacramento's talent level reflecting the 7-21 record it posted with Tyrone Corbin at the helm, instead of a disgruntled team.
The last six weeks can go a long way in nurturing the team's chemistry with George Karl as well as fostering a positive culture within the locker room. Having the talent to win and going out and doing it are two different things. Look for the Kings to start putting the two together down the stretch.
Of course, it doesn't hurt that games against the 76ers, Timberwolves, Lakers and Jazz are on the docket. But who they play is out of the Kings' hands. How they play isn't.
Record: 12-11
Unless noted otherwise, all stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate through games played on March. 5.
How do you think the Kings will play down the stretch? Let me know on Twitter @SimRisso.
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