Oklahoma City Thunder Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for March

Things seem to finally be falling into place for the Oklahoma City Thunder. General manager Sam Presti made major waves at the trade deadline and acquired quality depth and shooting. The roster finally makes sense after the Thunder moved Reggie Jackson and used a strong February to gain control of the eighth seed.

Furthermore, OKC’s competition for the eighth seed suffered some setbacks, as the Phoenix Suns traded away talent and the New Orleans Pelicans are dealing with injuries to key players.

The Thunder have injury concerns of their own, as Kevin Durant’s foot is causing some trouble, but the new additions and the ridiculous play of Russell Westbrook have kept OKC on track.

In the five games since the trade, the chemistry has looked noticeably better, and the Thunder can build on those good vibes by continuing to climb up the standings in March.

The month’s schedule is broken into weekly segments and analyzed in this slideshow. Each week will get its own slide complete with the schedule, a breakdown of the most interesting matchups and a prediction of OKC’s record. The last slide contains a prediction for the entire month’s record.

Week 1

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Schedule: at Los Angeles Lakers (March 1); vs. Philadelphia 76ers (March 4); at Chicago Bulls (March 5)

Game of the Week: at Bulls

OKC opens the month with easy games against two of the NBA’s cellar dwellers. As of publication, neither the Lakers nor Sixers have won more than 27 percent of their games. There’s no reason to expect change in the near future—especially since Philadelphia used the trade deadline to jettison two of its better players.

The Thunder shouldn’t have any problems against the league’s worst defense (Lakers) and worst offense (Sixers).

They end Week 1 with a road matchup against the always challenging Bulls. The news of Derrick Rose’s injury is depressing, but Chicago still has plenty of talent on the roster and an elite perimeter defender (Jimmy Butler) capable of harassing Durant or Westbrook. Chicago’s bruising frontcourt rotation of Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic will be problematic, but OKC also has a talented crop of big men who will be up to the challenge.

Traveling to the United Center on the second leg of a back-to-back is no joke, but the Bulls have been uncharacteristically weak at home this year, and OKC’s starters will likely get a chance to rest the previous night in what should be a lopsided affair in Philadelphia. The Thunder have more talent than the Rose-less Bulls, and that will be hard for Chicago to overcome.

Weekly Record Prediction: 3-0 (W, W, W)

Week 2

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Schedule: vs. Toronto Raptors (March 8); vs. Los Angeles Clippers (March 11); vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (March 13)

Game of the Week: vs. Clippers

Week 2 contains some fascinating point guard matchups as Westbrook will have to deal with Kyle Lowry, Chris Paul and Ricky Rubio—a drastic upgrade from the guards he faced in Week 1.

After emerging as one of the brightest stories from the start of the season, the Toronto Raptors have cooled off and hover around a .500 record for the month of February. That drop-off is partially due to an unbalanced schedule that gave them a ton of home games at the start of the season.

Toronto boasts one of the best home crowds in the league, but the Raptors haven’t fared so well away from the Air Canada Centre and are only 4-8 on the road against Western Conference teams. That bodes well for OKC, who has been an excellent home team despite all the injuries.

Next on the schedule are the star-studded Clippers, who will probably have Blake Griffin back in the lineup and will be looking to avenge a humiliating defeat. The last time these teams played, OKC cruised to a 23-point win at home, so you can be sure the Clips will be ready for the rematch. That extra motivation will probably be the difference in this encounter, as both teams are talented and evenly matched.

Lastly, the Thunder host the Timberwolves in what should be a straightforward victory. Minnesota has talent on the roster, but most of it is young and can’t keep pace with OKC. The Thunder won the two previous meetings and should clinch the season series at home.

Weekly Record Prediction: 2-1 (W, L, W)

Week 3

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Schedule: vs. Chicago Bulls (March 15); at Dallas Mavericks (March 16); vs. Boston Celtics (March 18); vs. Atlanta Hawks (March 20)

Game of the Week: vs. Hawks

On paper, this is the toughest week of the month for the Thunder. Three of their four games are against teams with records better than .500, and they also have to navigate a brutal stretch of three games in four nights.

We have already discussed the Bulls’ struggles at home, and they’ve actually been a better team on the road this year. Without Rose, it’ll still be a tall order for Chicago to leave OKC with a win (especially as it’s the last of a three-game road stand for the Bulls), but it should be a physical, competitive game that drains some of the Thunder’s energy.

That comes into play the following night as the Thunder have to travel to Dallas. The Mavs have been excellent at home and will be rested with two days off before the game, which means OKC will likely be in for a long night that culminates in a loss.

Thankfully, the Thunder will get a day to regroup before facing a Celtics team that is no pushover. Boston head coach Brad Stevens has done a great job with his young team, and the trio of Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart should give Westbrook some trouble. OKC should still win the game, but the taxing schedule means it could be closer than expected.

OKC caps off the week with another tough game against the Hawks. Atlanta has been killing teams regardless of conference and venue, but this matchup is the last of a lengthy road trip for the Hawks and will be their sixth road game in 10 nights. The Thunder can learn from Atlanta’s pass-happy offense, but they should be able to handle a road-weary Hawks team at home.

Weekly Record Prediction: 3-1 (W, L, W, W)

Week 4

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Schedule: vs. Miami Heat (March 22); vs. Los Angeles Lakers (March 24); at San Antonio Spurs (March 25); at Utah Jazz (March 28); at Phoenix Suns (March 29)

Game of the Week: at Suns

Logistically, this week is even more grueling than the previous one as the Thunder have to play five games in eight nights—three of which are on the road. Fortunately, they get some easier matchups, facing only two teams above .500.

This gauntlet starts with a stretch of three games in four nights. The Heat are no slouches after trading for Goran Dragic, but the scary news of Chris Bosh’s condition means they don’t have the depth to compete with the Thunder.

Next on the calendar is the monstrosity that is the 2014-15 Lakers. Ryan Kelly will be guarding Durant, while Jordan Clarkson will try to stop Westbrook. Need I say more?

OKC will be traveling to San Antonio the next day for a matchup against the reigning champs. Fortunately for the Thunder, San Antonio will also be coming off a game the night before against a considerably tougher opponent (Dallas). Even if we don’t consider head coach Gregg Popovich’s penchant for resting players on back-to-backs, the younger and more athletic Thunder have the advantage, as the scheduling has worked in their favor.

The team then closes the month with a road back-to-back against Utah and Phoenix. The Jazz are an interesting team, but they’re still too young to pose much of a threat to the Thunder. Phoenix, on the other hand, has already proved to be a challenging matchup for OKC, as two of their three encounters this year have required overtime (hence the “Game of the Week” honors).

It should be close, but the Suns should be fresher off a day of rest, and that will be the difference in a fast-paced game.

Weekly Record Prediction: 4-1 (W, W, W, W, L)

The Month of March

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It’s been a rough season in OKC, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. For starters, the roster moves made by general manager Sam Presti were excellent. Reggie Jackson is a talented player, but he was focused on being the man for another team next year, and his presence was affecting the chemistry of the team.

More importantly, Presti brought in some good players who addressed the team’s various needs. D.J. Augustin has been excellent so far as a playmaker off the bench, and Enes Kanter has impressed with his offensive skill set and chemistry alongside Serge Ibaka. Kyle Singler is a significant upgrade over Perry Jones as the backup small forward, and the combination of all the incoming players (including Steve Novak) provides some much-needed perimeter shooting.

Lastly, Durant’s nagging injuries could actually be a blessing in disguise if he returns fully healthy and fresher than ever before at this stage of the season. His health will continue to be a huge question mark for the Thunder, but they look far more capable of making noise in the playoffs now than they did a month ago.

Predicted March Record: 12-3

Note: All records and statistics are accurate as of February 27 and obtained from Basketball-Reference.