Biggest Surprises and Disappointments for Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers are off to a hot start once again but have still seen their fair share of highs and lows. There were some expectations coming into this season for the Blazers, namely improving the defense and getting more production from the reserve unit.
To this point, some things have gone beyond our expectations, while others have regrettably fallen short. It hasn’t affected Portland too much though, as this team has one of the NBA’s best win-loss records at 22-7.
There’s still a lot more basketball left in this season. It’s entirely possible for the Blazers to hone in on what’s been a letdown and turn it around, so keep a tab on what’s been good and what’s been bad, because it may be short-lived.
The key words are "may be."
But before I sound like a killjoy, let’s take a look at the biggest surprises and disappointments from the Blazers’ season so far.
Disappointment: Portland's Conference Record
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Portland has had great success and is currently tied with the Toronto Raptors for the No. 2 record in the NBA. But in terms of playing within the Western Conference, the Blazers aren't quite dominating as their record might indicate.
To this point, Portland holds a 10-6 record against the West. While that translates to winning 62.5 percent of said games, that number could realistically be much worse.
Both of Portland's victories against the San Antonio Spurs came against a short-handed team, with the reigning champs missing Tony Parker twice and Kawhi Leonard once. Three victories were over the Denver Nuggets, who are just 12-16 on the season, and another came against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that was adjusting to life without Kevin Durant in the early going.
In fact, the only victory that could be considered a signature win over a West power would be against the Dallas Mavericks on Nov. 6, with the final margin being 108-87.
So far, the Blazers have fallen at the hands of the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets. Portland has still had team success, but the question lingers as to whether this team is truly a contending group.
It's disappointing to see, especially considering the talent and coaching are both there to keep the Blazers' name afloat. But the results haven't come through yet.
Just the Clippers, Mavericks and Spurs have lesser conference records, although the latter has struggled periodically due to injuries and perhaps a championship hangover.
The Blazers could turn this around before the season's end, but right now, they haven't done enough to showcase their ability as a Western Conference dynamo.
Surprise: Damian Lillard's Improved Play
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Coming into his third NBA season, everyone expected Damian Lillard to make strides. But even with that, he’s evolved into a truly elite player.
Several aspects of his play have been career-high marks to this point, namely his scoring (21.3 points) and rebounding, which is up to 4.9 per game for the 6’3” guard. Lillard averaged only 3.5 boards per game last season.
In addition, his field-goal percentage has taken an upward trend to 45.9 percent over the 42.4 clip from a year ago.
While Lillard’s numbers for this season are only just above that of his 2013-14 campaign, they don’t tell the whole story, as much of his play is a product of the Blazers’ offensive style.
He is exceptionally patient in his approach offensively, rarely forcing shots and instead keeping in rhythm with what the Blazers are doing. At times, Lillard has needed to go outside these constraints when the rest of the team has struggled to score, and he has posted terrific results.
His 43-point outburst in a triple-overtime thriller against the San Antonio Spurs on Dec. 19 is one example, and his 35 points on 61.9 percent shooting against the Chicago Bulls on Dec. 12 is another.
In fact, Lillard’s entire play throughout December has been phenomenal. Whether he’s rounding into form or taking a different approach offensively remains to be seen, but his 23.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists this month have showcased just how special a player he is.
Again, it’s pretty much expected that younger players develop well over the course of their career, so it isn’t overly surprising to see what Lillard has done. But even considering that, Portland’s point guard has become a standalone scorer and is garnering attention as one of the NBA’s best young talents.
Disappointment: Injuries
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Injuries will always be a part of the game, and the Blazers have been somewhat fortunate so far.
This season’s health bill isn’t as clean as it could be, but it’s definitely better than it’s been in years past for Portland. It almost goes without saying that anything that’s happened this season looks like a walk in the park, as opposed to the derailing hits to former Blazers in Brandon Roy and Greg Oden.
But even so, Portland’s training staff has been busy.
Joel Freeland battled a sore foot early on, in addition to LaMarcus Aldridge and Will Barton being hit with an intestinal malady for a stretch. More serious cases exist though, with Robin Lopez’s broken hand expected to sideline him for four weeks, per Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo.
Aldridge had high praise for his teammate, per ESPN.com: “He's a big part of this offense and this team and our identity. He does so many things that people don't notice. He's a hard worker, the guy that does all the things that nobody else really does in the first unit. So it's going to be tough."
Lopez has been a mainstay for the Blazers defensively, providing that intimidating and physical presence in the paint that every NBA team desires. He does the dirty work for Portland and is the perfect complement for Aldridge on both ends, which makes his absence all that more disheartening.
Moreover, Nicolas Batum has struggled more than any other Blazer to this point.
He suffered a right knee contusion in early November, which required some extensive therapy, per Joe Freeman of The Oregonian:
"According to a source with knowledge of Batum's injury and treatment, the Trail Blazers' starting small forward spent last Monday in a Vancouver doctor's office receiving two rounds of PRP injections in his right knee. The nonsurgical procedure, which first became well known in Portland during the Brandon Roy era, is a process that involves extracting a patient's blood, running it through a centrifuge -- which separates red blood cells from platelets -- and re-injecting the resulting fluid into the injured area, in this case Batum's right knee.
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If that wasn’t enough, Batum injured his other knee and his right wrist against the Bucks on Dec. 17 after taking a nasty fall on a dunk attempt. It was a startling incident, but he was fortunate enough to walk away with some minor bruising.
The knee and wrist injuries have made their mark though, as Batum is shooting a tragic 20.8 percent from three-point range in December. He has long been an accurate marksman from deep, so it’s unlikely he’s just in a slump. More likely, his knees aren’t giving him the right lift and balance when shooting, which has limited his effectiveness.
Batum is still dishing 5.1 assists and snatching 5.3 rebounds with 8.6 points for the year, but the injuries have affected his play. It’s just a matter of time until this stretch passes, but it’s been disappointing nonetheless.
Surprise: The Synergy of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman
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Despite the overall irregularity of the reserves, Steve Blake and Chris Kaman have been a dynamic combination behind the starters. Considering their experience and skill, it was expected, but it’s remarkable how quickly and how well they’ve connected with the Blazers.
Kaman and Blake were a part of the disastrous Los Angeles Lakers team that went 27-55 last season, before the latter was sent to the Golden State Warriors as part of a trade. Both are past their prime, but they have remained useful pieces for Portland.
Blake has taken over the backup point guard role that was once filled well by Mo Williams, who left for the Minnesota Timberwolves in free agency. Despite his age, he's done an awesome job on both ends of the floor.
Blake has carved a niche with Portland as a terrific distributor, leading the team with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.10. That marks nets him the No. 16 spot in the NBA, putting him very close to the distributing efficiency of the Dallas Mavericks' Rajon Rondo or the Denver Nuggets' Ty Lawson.
His 35.6 percent from three-point range has been good enough to keep defenses honest, bolstering his spot as a perfect rotation player for the Blazers. On the other end of the court, Blake has played well as an on-ball defender at both guard spots despite his 6'3" stature.
His physicality and competitiveness have earned him a reputation as a bit of an enforcer, as he refuses to back down from anyone and inspires his team. Against the Denver Nuggets on Nov. 9, Blake took offense to a shove from behind by the Nuggets' Kenneth Faried. The 172-pound guard promptly pushed back, forcing the 228-pound big man to the floor before earning a flagrant-1 foul and sparking a heated confrontation.
Kaman hasn't provided the same type of toughness, but he's been a solid scoring option off the bench that Portland has desperately needed. His 9.9 points and 6.0 rebounds per game have been major, in addition to his 50 percent shooting and 17.2 player efficiency rating, per ESPN.com.
Kaman hasn't just helped the Blazers on the court, though; he's been a veteran presence for the younger players. Per Jason Quick of The Oregonian, Meyers Leonard said he's "glad to have Kaman around."
He's clearly taken the young center under his wing, as Kaman is often seen giving Leonard a quick pep talk between timeouts or yelling out encouragement from the bench. It's a severely understated role to play for a young team, but it's definitely been appreciated from his teammates.
The signings of Kaman and Blake looked to be solid roster fillers, but few could have anticipated the duo to have such an effect this quickly. Not only have they been excellent contributors individually, but Blake has assisted on 33 of Kaman's 124 field goals this season, per NBA.com.
They've been as good of a dynamic duo from a reserve unit as there ever was one. Both have been outstanding in their respective roles but have also combined to keep Portland afloat sans the starters.
Disappointment: The Inconsistency of the Bench
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The best way to describe the play of Portland’s bench is bittersweet.
There have been encouraging performances by developing talent like Meyers Leonard and Thomas Robinson, although those occurrences look atypical on most nights. Injuries to key players have forced the reserves to step up. It’s worked well to an extent, but the lack of consistency is glaring.
Per HoopsStats.com, the reserves have actually upped their production over last season. The last row is indicative of the difference in efficiency per game compared to the opposing team’s bench.
Much of that progress may be due to the veteran newcomers in Kaman and Blake, as they have formed an effective pair behind the starters. As such, what we’re looking at largely addresses the rest of the bench outside of Kaman and Blake.
Coming into this season, Portland hoped for the best from its prospects. Leonard, Robinson and C.J. McCollum headline that group, with Will Barton and Allen Crabbe chipping in as well. A few have been called upon to start in the absence of LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez or Nicolas Batum, but to different degrees of success.
Crabbe averaged 4.0 points on just 29.2 percent shooting but has switched that to 3.9 points on 52.9 percent shooting off the bench. His catch-and-shoot offense makes him an ideal fit in Portland’s offense, but he hasn’t been a constant. Crabbe is shooting 40 percent from long range through December but is making just 0.5 three-point field goals.
Robinson had a monster game of 15 points and 16 rebounds in 29 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks on Dec. 17, with just two personal fouls in place of the injured Lopez. He followed that up with two points and six rebounds in 27 minutes two nights later, before going 0-of-2 with three rebounds in 13 minutes against the Houston Rockets on Dec. 22, as Portland played without both Lopez and Aldridge.
Leonard has played sparingly but has put up solid numbers when he’s been on the court. His seven points and 12 rebounds against the Brooklyn Nets on Nov. 15 looked promising; however, Leonard has played in just five of the Blazers’ 19 games since then. He did chip in 13 points on 3-of-7 shooting from long range on Dec. 22 against Houston, scoring eight in the first quarter before settling down the rest of the way.
McCollum has struggled too but mostly due to injury. A broken finger has hindered his play early on, but he looks to be returning to form. McCollum's 17 points against the Rockets was one of the better games in his young career, second only to his career-best 19 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Feb. 8 last year.
But for the season, McCollum is shooting 37.5 percent with a PER of 11.6, per ESPN.com.
It’s clear that all of these players have indeed made strides to improve their respective games, but it hasn’t shown through steadily enough. A player might be good for 10 or 12 points one night but fail to score a single point the next. The same can be said for those who are making an impact on the boards or defensively.
The level of nightly competition certainly plays a role, as going against the Philadelphia 76ers might yield greater results than a tough opponent like the San Antonio Spurs. But even when the going isn’t at its toughest, the supporting cast hasn’t always delivered.
Surprise: The Blazers Defense
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Going back to last season, the Blazers basically tried to outscore their opponents on any given night. There wasn't much discipline on the defensive end, despite the play of three great individual and help defenders in Wesley Matthews, Batum and Lopez.
Portland was just an average defensive team in 2013-14, allowing 102.8 points (No. 22) on 45.1 percent from the field and 35.5 percent from beyond the arc. This team forced just 11.6 turnovers per game, which was the lowest mark in the league.
It's been a much different story this season, and not entirely one that could have been foreseen.
With largely the same roster, Portland presides as the fourth-best team in opponent points per game at 96.7. The Blazers have also held opposing defenses to 43.1 percent shooting from the field (tie for No. 3) and a league-best mark of 29.8 percent from three-point range.
Limiting opponents to just 5.2 made three-point field goals per game also ranks No. 1, which makes a strong case for Portland as the NBA's best team at defending the arc.
Per ESPN.com's Hollinger Stats, the Blazers rank third in defensive efficiency in allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions. That's a major improvement over last season's No. 16 mark of 104.7 points per 100 possessions.
It hasn't happened overnight though, as getting better on the other end has been a work in progress for head coach Terry Stotts and his team. Courtesy of Jeff Caplan of NBA.com, Stotts touched on the Blazers' defensive evolution prior to the season:
"It's going to be a commitment. We can't rely on our offense. We were first in offense in the first part of the season and then there was a drop significantly in the second half and our defense kept us in position to win games. I think everybody on our team realizes that for us to make the next step it's going to come by maintaining the level of offense that we had last year and becoming a top 10 defensive team.
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At this stage, Portland has kept its priorities in order to become a top-10 defensive team. The team still allows far too many points in the paint, at 44.4 per game, per Team Rankings, which should be the next area of focus.
Lopez is a tremendous presence in the middle, but the perimeter guys must do more to limit penetration and scoring at the rim. They've done remarkably well to limit long-range shots, which must be noted.
In hindsight, with the opposing team shooting just 43.1 percent and less than 30 percent on long-range attempts, giving up that number of points in the paint might not be that bad. Realistically, something has to give.
If the Blazers can shut down the majority of a team's offense, they can live with it. But it's still an alarming number to say the least, as they rank as the eighth-worst squad in defending the paint.
Alongside that, Portland's opponents score 66.1 percent of their points on two-point field goals, according to Team Rankings. Once again, that's a given with the Blazers' long-range defense. But it's something that could pose a major red flag during the postseason against a grind-it-out squad like the Grizzlies or the Spurs.
But before we get too off-topic, Portland deserves a great deal of praise for its transformation into a smothering defensive team. The difference between this season and last is apparent, despite the team keeping the same core players together.
If anything, it's a testament to the players and the coaches' commitment to making strides and contending for a championship.
The play of Lillard and the combined efforts of Kaman and Blake are remarkable in their own right, but the Blazers becoming a top-10 defensive team is the most surprising development of the season. It's a necessary change and one that will aid Portland in taking over the Western Conference.
Just one defensive stop at a time.
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