4 Bold Predictions for the Cleveland Cavaliers During 2014-15 Season
It was a pretty awesome summer for Cleveland Cavaliers fans.
In case you missed anything, here's the SparkNotes version: David Blatt replaced Mike Brown as head coach, Kyrie Irving signed a five-year extension, LeBron James opted to return in free agency and Kevin Love was acquired in a trade. Veterans Mike Miller, Shawn Marion and James Jones also signed on.
So, yeah, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic in Cleveland. A year ago, the Cavs were excited about No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett and free-agent acquisitions Andrew Bynum, Jarrett Jack and Earl Clark. Despite playoff aspirations, the Cavs managed only 33 wins, missing the playoffs for a fourth consecutive year. None of those four players are still with the franchise; Bynum is out of the league.
Before Cleveland tips off its 2014-15 season at Quicken Loans Arena versus the New York Knicks on Oct. 30, we compiled four bold predictions for the coming year.
1. LeBron James Won't Finish in Top 2 of MVP Voting
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The MVP race this year seems wide open. Last year’s winner, Kevin Durant, could miss up to eight weeks with a fractured foot. Derrick Rose, the 2011 winner, is still recovering from two major knee surgeries in the past 2.5 years and has yet to prove he can return to that consistent level of production.
Durant’s injury should give LeBron James a clear leg up. After all, James is the 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013 MVP. He finished second to Durant last year and was the only other player to receive first-place votes. In 2011, his first year in Miami, James finished third behind Rose and a spry Dwight Howard.
But with the move to Cleveland, LeBron is likely shedding responsibility—almost as quickly as he’s shedding weight. Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are two of the league’s 10 or 15 best offensive talents, and Dion Waiters is another high-usage player at the 2-guard spot. The regular season should amount to an extended feeling-out process for the Cavs, with James showing varying levels of aggressiveness depending on the situation, like we’ve seen in the preseason.
Of course, this assumes full health. Irving missed 23 games in 2012-13 and 11 in 2013-14; Love played 77 last year but missed all but 18 in 2012-13. The former Minnesota forward hasn’t played an 80-game season since his rookie year. If Cleveland approaches any type of Dwyane Wade situation, LeBron may have to assume a greater burden, which would most likely mean bigger numbers.
You can’t predict injury, though, and so we can only forecast a scenario where each of the three core guys makes it through the 82-game schedule mostly unscathed. In that case, James will likely see some rest, which would damage his MVP stock. He sat out two preseason games, one of which came on the first night of a back-to-back. Coach David Blatt talked earlier in October about potentially resting his star at various points in the season.
The Cavs are playing for the postseason, not regular-season awards. James has already won two MVPs as a Cavalier. You don’t have to win MVP every year to prove you’re the best player in the game; LeBron didn’t win in ‘11 or ‘14, and Charles Barkley won at the peak of Michael Jordan's powers in ‘93.
This year, I’d say Carmelo Anthony, Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin and even Dirk Nowitzki, the winner in 2007, are more likely candidates.
2. Tristan Thompson Will Sign Long Term for More Than $10 Million Per Year
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Thompson’s contract situation is the most interesting subplot of the start of the season. The No. 4 overall pick in 2011, he can either sign a long-term extension by Oct. 31, play out the season and enter restricted free agency next summer, or sign a qualifying offer for a fifth year and become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2016. I'm betting on Option A.
Thompson’s agent, Rich Paul, also represents LeBron. Paul is no stranger to the Cavs front office. And he’s also no stranger to restricted free agency, having scored client Eric Bledsoe a five-year, $70 million deal with Phoenix this summer.
By all accounts, Thompson and LeBron are tight. As far back as January 2012, Tristan’s rookie year, the former Texas forward told ESPN’s Brian Windhorst that James was “like a brother.” You would guess LeBron would want Thompson in Cleveland moving forward.
Then, of course, there’s the matter of Thompson’s play. He’s undersized at 6’8”, but he is an effective rebounder who is improving offensively. Thompson, 23, started all 82 games each of the past two seasons, according to Basketball-Reference.com, averaging close to a double-double. This preseason, he’s been a menace; he tallied 18 points and nine rebounds in 25 minutes against Miami and another 17 and 11 in 30 against Dallas.
On the money end, how the league’s TV deals with Turner and Disney will affect player salaries could be a point of emphasis. Could the salary cap exceed $80 or even $90 million by the summer of 2016? If so, that’s a lot more money for a lot more teams to spend.
Even with three superstars in LeBron, Irving and Love, the Cavs shouldn’t be too worried about the finances of signing Thompson. The team owns his Bird rights and can exceed the cap to re-sign him. And, if owner Dan Gilbert’s free-spending past is any indication, he’ll have no qualms dipping into the luxury tax if that’s what it takes to field a title contender. He’s done it before.
I’d bet Thompson signs somewhere between Derrick Favors (four years, $49 million) money and Larry Sanders money (four years, $44 million). The Akron Beacon Journal’s Jason Lloyd has reported Thompson’s camp would be seeking something in the neighborhood of Favors’ deal. Lloyd also cites a league source who says Thompson, sure to benefit from playing alongside three stars, may be better off playing out the season and entering restricted free agency.
We’ll see how the next week or so unfolds. But remember: Jordan Hill signed with the Lakers for $9 million per this past offseason—it’s just the price of doing business. To me, Thompson is in Cleveland for the long term. My bet is on a deal getting done sooner rather than later.
3. Cleveland Will Acquire Additional Frontcourt Help
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In fairness, Cleveland is more fortunate than most teams. Kevin Love is perhaps the league’s best power forward, and Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson, more-than-competent NBA players, will trade minutes at center. If all three of these guys play 75-plus games, depth isn’t a concern.
Of course, that's not exactly a sure thing. Varejao is 32 and, despite playing 65 games last year, appeared in a combined 81 the three seasons prior, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Blatt will do his best to manage Varejao’s minutes throughout the season. He played 81 and 76 games, respectively, during LeBron’s last two years in Cleveland at 27.5 minutes per night. In each of the next three injury-riddled seasons, he exceeded 31 minutes per game before dropping below 28 again last year.
If these three stay healthy, they’ll absorb about all the big-guy minutes. Against Chicago, which Cleveland treated as something close to a regular-season game, reserves Lou Amundson, Alex Kirk and Brendan Haywood played less than a minute combined. Even still, you’d like some insurance.
Kirk has shown flashes as a rim protector and bills himself as a stretch big, but he’s still an undrafted rookie with limited mobility. Haywood missed all of last season due to a stress fracture in his left foot. Amundson played a combined 19 games for two teams. The point is, you probably can’t count on anything from any of them.
Blatt has the luxury of playing LeBron and the 6’7” Shawn Marion at the 4 in small-ball lineups. But come playoff time when Washington, with Nene and Marcin Gortat, and Chicago, with Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, lurk as the most serious threats, the Cavs will want more depth.
Denver’s Timofey Mozgov is the most likely target. The Nuggets will be hard-pressed to make a playoff run in the brutal Western Conference, and they already have close to $30 million tied up in Kenneth Faried, Javale McGee and J.J. Hickson through the 2015-16 season. Mozgov played for Blatt on the Russian national team in the 2012 Olympics. He’s due $4.65 million this season, according to ShamSports.com; the Cavs acquired a $5.3 million trade exception in the Keith Bogans trade last month.
Mozgov has a team option for about $5 million next year that could give Cleveland some insurance in case Love, Thompson and/or Varejao, all potential free agents, sign elsewhere. For a rotation big, $5 million is acceptable market value; Chris Kaman and Spencer Hawes signed deals for the full mid-level exception this past summer to come off the bench in Portland and Los Angeles, respectively.
If not Mozgov, Cleveland could look in the midseason for a guy like Emeka Okafor, who is still unsigned.
4. The Cavs Will Win the East
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This prediction is more a referendum on the strength of the rest of the conference than the strength of the Cavaliers.
Aside from Chicago, there’s no other legitimate contender. Miami obviously lost James. Indiana lost its two best two-way players. Washington lost Trevor Ariza and has multiple wing guys recovering from injury, and Brooklyn lost closer Paul Pierce and ultimate utility guy Shaun Livingston. Toronto, a division winner a year ago, returns pretty much the same nucleus this season.
Even Chicago has a few deficiencies, most notably at the small forward spot. Is Mike Dunleavy an 82-game starter, or will Tom Thibodeau eventually turn to rookie Doug McDermott or second-year man Tony Snell? Jimmy Butler's offensive game is still developing. The Bulls may be placing a heavy burden on the former MVP Rose, who’s still recovering from multiple major knee surgeries.
That said, Cleveland has plenty of work to do. The first few months of the seasons are likely to feature plenty of bumps and bruises, much like it did for Miami in 2010-11. That Heat team started 9-8 but won 58 games and advanced to the NBA Finals.
I won’t predict an NBA championship yet. The West is awfully strong, and any one of San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles, Dallas or Golden State could pose a significant threat. But Cleveland should return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2007.
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