Miami Heat's Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios Heading into Postseason

The NBA postseason is a little over a week away and it seems like only moments ago that we were dealing with possibly having no NBA season at all.

While the product that the NBA has given us this year has been relatively mediocre and below average, it's still a reassuring feeling knowing that there's basketball to watch nearly every night, since many of us don't want to watch baseball or hockey highlights on ESPN.

But let's get back to the playoffs. The Miami Heat currently hold the second seed in the Eastern Conference and are currently two-and-a-half games behind the Chicago Bulls. They're all but guaranteed a seed as high as second with the Indiana Pacers being a distant third.

The past few weeks have been interesting for the Heat as we've seen them rise high enough to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder before plummeting back down to earth and losing to the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls in the span of three days. Those games against Boston and Chicago brought back those feelings from last year's regular season where the Heat dropped six of seven games to those teams.

We all know what transpired when it mattered, however.

Let's take a look at the Miami Heat and their best- and worst-case scenarios entering the postseason.

Best Case: They Draw the Philadelphia 76ers in the First Round

If there has been one team that has succumbed to defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat more than any other team in the Big Three-era, it's the Philadelphia 76ers by far.

By completing a 3-0 season sweep of the Sixers, the Heat have pushed their regular season winning streak over Philadelphia to 11. Philadelphia lost all four meetings with the Heat last year and were swept with ease this year. The Heat won the first meeting at home 113-92, the second meeting on the road 99-79 and the third meeting, also played at the Wells Fargo Center, 99-93.

Don't be fooled by that last score. It wasn't as close as it appears to be. The Heat were up by as much as 29 points in the first half of that contest before taking their foot off the gas pedal and allowing the Sixers to stage a comeback. As per tradition, the Sixers failed to fully execute the comeback and ended up losing thanks in part to several key jumpers by Udonis Haslem.

It's surprising to see these types of performances from the Sixers against the Heat, especially when you judge them on how well they played Miami in their first round series. Even though the Heat only needed five games to win, and the one Sixers win came by way of a few insane jumpers, Philadelphia played Miami well in all but one game.

It didn't transfer over to the 2011-12 season. The Sixers remained stagnant with their biggest pickup coming in the form of first-round draft pick Nikola Vucevic, while the Heat continued to build up their chemistry and establishing a more consistent half-court offense. With the Heat getting a better feel for each other, the Sixers didn't stand a chance in either of the three meetings this year.

How do we explain the Heat's dominance over the Sixers? Easily. Philadelphia doesn't have the defensive options to stop Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade, and they don't have the type of player who could score in volumes and take over a game. Their leading scorer is Louis Williams and that is someone who isn't exactly striking fear into the heart of an opponent like the Heat.

Worst Case: They End Up Taking on the New York Knicks in the First Round

There are only two legitimate possibilities to whom the Miami Heat will face in the first round of the playoffs, and a series against the New York Knicks seems to be the most likely.

The Knicks are currently a game up on the struggling Philadelphia 76ers. They're essentially locked into the seventh position with the Orlando Magic a distant three games ahead at sixth, and the Sixers limping their way to the end of the year. The Knicks could potentially obtain the sixth seed with Dwight Howard sitting out for the rest of the year, but it would take a tremendous winning streak and a lot of luck to secure it.

We have found out one thing about the Knicks: They don't want to play the Miami Heat. They'd rather take on the current number one seeded Chicago Bulls before they take on the Heat. It's tough to blame them. They're 0-3 against the Heat, losing all three games by at least eight points and 1-3 against the Bulls. All that matters is the fact that they actually won a game against Chicago.

Just proving to themselves that they are capable of beating Chicago is enough to convince them that they are the team they want to face.

The Knicks have thrown just about every lineup possible at the Heat with the same result. The first game only featured one star in Amar'e Stoudemire, the second meeting featured Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Jeremy Lin at the peak of his popularity and the final meeting only featured Anthony. Three different lineups thrown at the Heat, all with eerily similar results.

Drawing the Knicks in the first round isn't that terrible for the Heat. They've beaten them all three times this year, Stoudemire and Lin will both be ailing and the team still has to go through the process of attempting to work together. However, it would make it a lot easier for Miami if they end up drawing a team that has predictable results.

The Knicks are unpredictable and that's why it would be a little scary for the Heat to play them in the first round. We've seen this New York team lose to the likes of Toronto and New Orleans, but we've also seen them beat the Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers. If this team is working together and playing in perfect synchronization, they become one of the more difficult teams to face.

Plus, doesn't facing off Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand sound a lot easier than attempting to defend Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire? The regular season has taken a toll on every player and the postseason can be arduous if not planned correctly. Chances are that the Heat would love to have a predictable team with no All-Stars before they take on an unpredictable team with multiple stars.

Best Case: They End Up with the No. 1 Seed

Last year, we had little to worry about with the Miami Heat not securing home-court advantage.

They were incredible on the road. The 28-13 mark away from the comfort of the American Airlines Arena was tied for the best in the league. Miami was getting booed in every stadium, from expected jeering in Cleveland to unexpected booing in places like Memphis. This only fueled the fire that was already blazing underneath each player on the team from last year.

The Heat loved the jeering and ridicule. They thrived off of it and simply used it as motivation, which is why you saw them winning games by nearly 40 points in Cleveland. The more you booed, the better they played. It was a phenomenon. Never before have we seen one team get consistently jeered at every stop they made, yet have those same jeering fans oohing and aahing at every Dwyane Wade to LeBron James alley-oop.

The same can't be said for this year. The booing has died down, even in Cleveland but not in Chicago for some reason, and the Heat aren't playing nearly as well on the road as they were last year. They're a modest 18-13 away from home, far behind the NBA leading 23-8 mark set by the Chicago Bulls. Miami is third in their Conference on the road behind the Bulls and the Indiana Pacers of all teams.

Home court is going to play more of a factor for the Heat this year. They've played exceptional at home with a 16 game home winning streak being the prominent mark of the year. In the American Airlines Arena, the Heat have beaten the likes of Boston, Chicago, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and the Los Angeles Lakers. They're a combined 0-5 against all of those teams when playing on the road.

The Eastern Conference playoffs are going to come down to the Heat and Bulls. It's what we all predicted at the beginning of the year, and it's going to happen whether we want it to or not. If the Bulls have home-court advantage, they'll have the benefit of playing at the United Center, a place they've only lost in seven times this year.

Equipped with that 23-8 mark on the road, the Bulls are just as scary on the road. The Heat need to get every type of advantage they can against Chicago because they're going to need it. Even if Derrick Rose is still ailing, this Bulls team has proven they're capable of beating any team with or without him.

If the Heat get the first seed, they'd also have the benefit of not only getting home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but also the benefit of most likely playing the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round.

It'll be a tough test with the Heat currently behind the Bulls by two-and-a-half games, but it could get extremely interesting if Miami defeats Chicago at home and then wins out the rest of the year.

Worst Case: They End Up with the No. 2 Seed

For those that strongly wish the Miami Heat to be in the first seed in the Eastern Conference, it actually isn't as bad as you think.

Their projected first-round matchup would be with the New York Knicks, but they then have the possibility of taking on the Indiana Pacers or Orlando Magic in the second round. The Heat are 3-1 against the Pacers this year and are 2-2 against the Magic. However, the Magic don't seem like a candidate to make it that far if Dwight Howard's injury is as significant as it appears to be.

So the Knicks and Pacers in the first two rounds with home-court advantage? That's perfect for the Heat. Miami is a combined 7-1 against those teams with the only loss coming on the road in Indiana, which was the second night of a back-to-back where the Heat played the Oklahoma City Thunder the day before.

However, the Heat shouldn't have any need to worry about the first two rounds if they're that serious of a championship contender. They shouldn't be wary of facing any team in the three to eight seeds because they should know that they are considerably better than every team in the East, excluding the current one seed. The team currently holding onto the number one seed is the only squad that the Heat should have any worries about.

Which makes it essential that the Heat obtain that number one seed. We can go on and on about how the Heat pounded the Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals and how they won two games in the United Center, but we also have to remember that occurred last year and this year is a lot different.

Even though the Bulls' only significant move over the offseason was signing a player who is currently dealing with injuries, the Heat have been struggling at aspects they didn't last year and that includes playing on the road. Miami has already lost to Boston, Chicago and Oklahoma City on the road since the All-Star break and their only meaningful road win was a victory against New York.

The United Center is a madhouse and they're still feeling the pain from last year's ECF, which explains why they're the only fans in the league that are still reduced to booing LeBron James every time he touches the ball. They've played well at home and equally as well on the road. Miami hasn't had as much success on the road, which makes obtaining the number one seed far more significant than their desire to win it last year.

If you're worried about teams like the Knicks or Pacers, get the number two seed. If you want to have an advantage over arguably the best team in basketball and the only team in your conference that has a chance of contending with you, then the number one seed is the only way to go.

Best Case: The Shooters Finally Get It Going

As much pressure as we put on Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh to perform to their highest expectations, you have to give them some amount of credit for what they've accomplished in their first two seasons together.

They've already made an NBA Finals, have won back-to-back Southeast Division titles and are the current Eastern Conference champions. Not bad for a team who had the defensively inept James Jones as their sixth man last year. Not too shabby for a team that's put an entire franchise on their back, even though the team was advertised as certain domination.

Why aren't the Heat dominating this year? They went through the experimental stage last year and managed to make it all the way to the NBA Finals with Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem heavily ailing from injuries. When you watch the 2011-12 Miami Heat, you sometimes begin to wonder if the depleted team from last year was just as good as the one from this year.

The Heat's defense will step up in the postseason. The whole idea of constantly double-teaming, rotating and having every player work together seems like a farfetched concept, but it works perfectly for this team if they're playing to their fullest potential and giving a complete effort. Nearly every player on this team is an excellent defender in their own way, and it will come full circle once the playoffs come around.

It's the offense you need to worry about. Even though the Heat are near the top of the league in points per game, they're still dealing with plenty of half-court struggles. Rather than going the popular route of blaming it on coach Spoelstra or the Big Three, perhaps we should look at the big picture and notice that Shane Battier, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem are the reasons why this team is struggling in the half-court.

When Pat Riley created this team, he had a vision. He saw the Big Three feeding off each other and the role players feeding off the Big Three. With members of the Big Three attracting double-teams and containing the ability to find open teammates, the Heat were either going to get amazing scores from the Big Three or easy scores from the role players.

The Big Three are passing out to the open role players, but they're either not hitting the shot or passing out and completely disrupting the rhythm of the offense. Battier, Miller and Haslem have been the biggest culprits of doing this. None of these players are consistently hitting their shots and it's detrimental to the Heat when they don't have any players stretching the floor.

With Battier shooting only 34 percent from deep, Miller attempting to come back from various injuries and Haslem shooting a lowly 43 percent from the field, the Big Three are left with the responsibility of making up for the shortcomings of three shooters who were supposed to be reliable and consistent.

Instead, none of these players are making their shots, and it's stalling the Heat's offense. As good as Wade, James and Bosh can be, they need those other guys to assist them. The Big Three can't do it all, as proven last year. Battier, Miller and Haslem are supposed to be the glue guys to put this team together, and they're simply not doing their job.

Luckily for the Heat, Miller and Haslem appear to be out of their shooting slumps and have been converting more regularly. Battier, however, is still inconsistent. What the Heat could be relieved by is that Shane Battier is one of the smartest players in the game and knows how to work his way out of slumps.

If those shooters are taking advantage of the open opportunities they receive, the Heat become unstoppable because defenses will then not only be wary of the Big Three, but also of the numerous perimeter and mid-range shooters.

Worst Case: Injuries Play a Part Once Again

We've been waiting a long time to see a healthy Mike Miller.

Since he was signed in the summer of July 2010, the only time we have seen Miller healthy was a few games during last year's preseason before he hurt his thumb. Once Miller's thumb got hurt, his season was basically over. He'd come back nearly two months later and would struggle the rest of the season with consistency and other injury troubles.

All of this for $30 million? What's not to love? I guess everything because we're pretty sure that the Heat are frustrated that the sharpshooter they're giving $6 million is either hurt or inconsistent. Miller was meant to be the Heat's sixth man, yet he still finds himself struggling to obtain consistent minutes.

At this point, the Heat appear to be hesitant when playing Miller. He's as healthy as we've seen him in the past two years since recovering from an ankle injury he suffered on March 10. Since returning on April 8, Miller is 9-of-23 from deep and a disappointing 12-of-40 from the field overall, which includes a 1-for-9 performance in an overtime loss to the Chicago Bulls.

Those aren't the numbers you want from somebody who is supposed to be considered the most reliable part of your bench. You can't expect to win games when your primary perimeter threat and first player off the bench is struggling with his shot and constantly getting hurt. Miller has sat out two stretches this season with the ankle injury being the latest and a recovery from sports hernia surgery to start the year.

The Heat had the opportunity to use the amnesty on Miller at the beginning of the year, but declined. Even through all the injuries, the Heat still have put a lot of faith and trust into the shooter who has converted on 40 percent of shots from deep over his career. They know the potential of Miller, and they need him to come up big in the playoffs.

When you face off against a team like Boston or Chicago, you need that extra boost. It's even more significant on a team like the Heat where every defense keys in on the Big Three. Nobody is paying attention to Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem or any other role player, and it's about time that players like Miller begin making opponents pay for their disrespect.

Miller has to be healthy this postseason. The Heat can't run the risk of utilizing Battier, who's only shooting 34 percent from deep, or James Jones, who can't play defense, as primary perimeter options. Miami needs all of their key elements healthy and playing exactly how they expect them to play.

Miller is going to need to be huge this postseason. If the Heat can get him to shoot at least 40 percent from deep, then they should expect quite the season opener next year.

Best Case: Chris Bosh's Aggressiveness on the Boards Continues

One of the most disappointing stats of the season is Chris Bosh went nearly two months without recording a double-double.

He went a full month without recording more than 10 boards in a game. After recording 20 points and 10 rebounds in a win over the Sacramento Kings, it wouldn't be until April 1 that he'd record at least 10 boards. He'd have to wait until April 15 for the double-double.

Let's put this into perspective. Chris Bosh is a 6'11" power forward who plays in a frontcourt that features LeBron James and either Ronny Turiaf or Joel Anthony at center. James will go up for rebounds if he has to, which means that Bosh is basically competing with Turiaf and Anthony for rebounds. Since neither of those players are grabbing 10 boards per game, we can come to the conclusion that Bosh was simply not playing aggressive enough under the boards.

Truly sad. Bosh is getting paid just as much money as LeBron James, yet has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year. The bulk he added on over the offseason and the talk of willingly playing center were for naught as Bosh is actually averaging fewer rebounds per game than he was last year. Averaging fewer than eight boards, this is the lowest amount of boards for Bosh since his rookie season.

However, a silver lining appears. In the past two games that Bosh has played, the Heat have started him at center alongside an aggressive rebounder in Udonus Haslem. Bosh responded by recording at least 14 boards in consecutive games with 14 against New York and then 15 against New Jersey.

Given that Bosh did this against a Knicks team where Tyson Chandler pulled up lame late in the game and a Nets team that featured Kris Humphries, it's still uplifting to know that Bosh has it in him to perform. Rebounding is going to be huge in the postseason and with Bosh being the only big man in the starting lineup with the capability of grabbing 10 boards per game, it'll be expected of him to continue this recent onslaught.

Tonight's game against the Chicago Bulls should give us a solid gauge on just how well Bosh is going to stack up against one of the NBA's most aggressive frontcourts. If he's recording at least 10 boards against a frontcourt that features Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik, we'll know that he is ready and determined to make up for the past month's worth of ineptitude.

Worst Case: Chris Bosh Regresses and Continues to Struggle Grabbing Rebounds

The two biggest concerns for the Heat on defense will be their defensive rebounding and their defense along the perimeter.

We know the Heat can guard anybody on the perimeter. We just saw the Heat limit Derrick Rose into shooting 1-of-13. Understood that he was coming off an injury, but that's the reigning MVP and one of the NBA's most dynamic players shooting like that. If the Heat can contain a player like Rose at the top of the perimeter, they're capable of guarding anyone.

The three-point shooting? The Heat are among the worst teams in the league when it comes to giving up three-point attempts. The defense they're running has the team constantly running in order to close out on open shooters. It's sort of a pick your poison type of system as the Heat would rather you attempt to beat them with jump shots, instead of driving.

The Heat can live with giving up jump shots because they know that won't last in a seven-game series.

However, if there's one thing the Heat will not be able overcome, it's the rebounding. That aspect of the game is going to be playing a gigantic factor in the Heat's playoff run, especially in the Conference Finals when the Heat will be expected to take on a huge Chicago Bulls team. If the Heat don't have an answer for Boozer, Noah, Gibson and Asik, they're going to be in serious trouble.

A main reason why the Heat were able to win in five games against the Bulls was because they were somehow able to neutralize the rebounding battle. Bosh came up huge, a complete team effort and an unexpected boost from Udonis Haslem all played large factors in the Heat matching the Bulls' efforts on the board.

Chicago knows that this is a weakness for the Heat, and they plan to exploit it. The only way the Heat are going to win this series is if they get rebounds and make guys like Gibson and Asik have less of an influence. Miami can't expect to win if they're going to give up 10 to 15 offensive rebounds a night. This team is too good to constantly give second chances.

That's why it's essential for Bosh to come up big. He needs to play his size and average at least 10 boards per game in this doomsday-type match. He needs to drastically outplay Carlos Boozer again and needs to assert himself on the boards as the player that once averaged 11 boards per game and was considered a superstar.

Bosh wants to be part of the Big Three? Play like it.

Best Case: The Rest Pays off for Dwyane Wade

This notion of Dwyane Wade being injury prone is quite comical.

Wade does play with reckless abandon and is a relentless slasher. Despite being 6'4", he spends a lot of time in the frontcourt either going up for layups and dunks, grabbing rebounds and even sending back the shots of players that have nearly half a foot on him. Wade finds himself getting banged up so badly because he's constantly getting surrounded or boxed in by players much larger than him.

However, this is the first year that Wade has dealt with injuries since the 2007-08 season. Since he received surgery mid-way through that season, Wade has rehabilitated and has become the high-octane player you know today. He has only missed 14 games in the past three years and has missed 14 total this year, with a few of the missed games coming for rest and "maintenance" as coach Spoelstra puts it.

In Wade's absence, the Heat have played near perfect with only one loss in 14 missed games. Without Wade on the floor, LeBron James appears to be more comfortable as he dictates the flow of the offense. He doesn't feel obligated to share the ball with Wade and it's allowing more players to get touches, which leads to higher percentage shots.

Please. You have to be clinically insane if you think this team is better without Wade starting at the two. If you're satisfied with having James Jones letting his defender breeze by him or Shane Battier hitting 34 percent of his three-pointers, then you're not cut out to be a general manager. The Heat are at their best when the team is at full strength and Wade clearly makes this team better.

Let the Heat rest Wade. They don't need him right now. It's the regular season and they're not about to risk Dwyane Wade getting hurt again just because they're within three games of catching the number one seed. Obtaining the number one seed would be a nice cushion for the Heat going into the playoffs, but having a healthy Dwyane Wade sounds a lot better.

This isn't the Wade from 2006. He's 30-years-old and dealing with various ailments. There's no need to strain him over the next week when the real season begins in two weeks. Once he's rested and healthy, you'll be thanking the Heat training staff for making sure that Wade's going to be good to go against Ray Allen or Richard Hamilton.

Worst Case: They Don't Have a Clear Rotation

I'm not the type of person to go blaming coaches for the shortcomings of a team because in the end it's all on how the player performs.

The coach only has so much power over his team. Coach Spoelstra isn't making Shane Battier miss his shots, he's not telling Chris Bosh to record below 10 rebounds every game and he's not the one who's making Norris Cole shoot 30 percent since the All-Star break. Spo' creates the plays, makes the adjustments and does the talking.

Don't forget that this guy has Pat Riley in his ear at all times. Riley made a clone of Spoesltra, and even though Erik is half the motivator that Pat is, he still carries many of the same principles and systems of the Hall of Fame coach. It wasn't Spoelstra who failed to break through the zone defense in last year's Finals. That was on the entire organization. Riley was at every practice, so he's just as much at fault as anyone else.

However, if there's one thing to blame on Spoelstra, it's his rotations. He can be a little too robotic, by which I mean he'll put in players that shouldn't be in solely based on his rotations or he'll substitute the wrong players. He'll pull players that are in the middle of hot stretches and annihilate momentum, which is the worst possible thing that could happen in a postseason series.

At the moment, the Heat are going through a strange stretch of games where they're mixing and matching lineups. In the past three games in Wade's absence, the Heat have started three different players: Terrel Harris, James Jones and Shane Battier. It's throwing off the rhythm of the starting lineup and the bench, as Spoelstra continues to figure out a set rotation with only a week left in the regular season.

Spoelstra deserves a lot of credit for what he's done with this team. He's in the most pressure-filled job in sports. He has Pat Riley looking over his shoulder, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade looking up to him and the Miami Heat fanbase constantly staring him down wanting results. He'll win a championship, but he'll never win in the eyes of the fans because the blame will always be cast upon him when there's trouble.

He has to come up with a set rotation, though. You can't start mixing and matching lineups this late in the season. You need your players to get into a rhythm and have them comfortable with each other. You can't have LeBron James run an offense with four guys one night and then have two or three different players with him the next. Spoelstra needs to have consistency.

Being comfortable with your teammates is one of the biggest keys to winning a championship.