NBA News and Views Week 4: Opinion and Statistics with That Abacus Slant

It’s taken four weeks, but competitive play has finally arrived at your local NBA arena.

Through 21 days of play, over half (92-of-180) the games had victory margins of more than 10 points.

But in Week 4, over two-thirds (38-of-56) were decided by 10 points of less.

Take a look at the weekly numbers:

	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Total
1 - 5 points	14 (25.0%)	11 (17.5%)	12 (19.7%)	18 (32.1%)	55 (23.3%)
5 - 10 points	13 (23.2%)	19 (30.2%)	19 (31.1%)	20 (35.7%)	71 (30.1%)
11 - 20 points	20 (35.7%)	22 (34.9%)	23 (37.7%)	10 (17.9%)	75 (31.8%)
21-plus points	9 (16.1%)	11 (17.5%)	7 (11.5%)	8 (14.3%)	35 (14.8%)
	56 games	63 games	61 games	56 games	236 games

More about conspiracy theories, marketing mishaps and statistical mayhem is but a click away.

Unanticipated Consequences, or Hidden Agenda?

When the Miami Heat took the court Saturday night against Atlantic Division leader Philadelphia, it was only the third time in 15 games they found themselves playing a team on “tired legs” that had played the night before.  Contrast that with their division rival Atlanta, who faced a tired-legged opponent in seven of its first 17 contests.

The situation is even worse with Dan Gilbert’s Cleveland Cavaliers, who on Saturday played a team with tired legs (ironically those same Hawks) for the first time this season.  (The Cavs, too, had a game Friday night, though to say they actually played in the 39-point blowout loss to Chicago might be a stretch.)

Commissioner Stern and his scheduling people did a reasonably equitable job of distributing the burden of playing ON tired legs, but not so much when it came to doling out the advantage of playing AGAINST tired legs.

Here’s a tally of the number of times playing a tired opponent, the number of games playing tired and the schedule advantage or disadvantage. (Starred teams play a second three-fer.) You’re free to draw your own conclusion as to how and why this may have happened.

	Tired Opponent	Tired "Us"	+/-
Miami	11 games	20 games	-9
Cleveland	12 games	22 games	-10
Lakers	15 games	19 games	-4
Oklahoma City	16 games	20 games	-4
Boston	17 games	21 games	-4
Phoenix*	17 games	21 games	-4
Sacramento	17 games	17 games	0
New Jersey*	18 games	18 games	0
Toronto	19 games	20 games	-1
Golden State	19 games	19 games	0
Memphis	20 games	20 games	0
Portland*	20 games	20 games	0
Denver*	20 games	18 games	+2
Dallas	21 games	22 games	-1
Detroit*	21 games	22 games	-1
Minnesota*	21 games	20 games	+1
Philadelphia*	21 games	20 games	+1
New Orleans	22 games	18 games	+4
Indiana*	23 games	23 games	0
Utah	23 games	22 games	+1
New York	23 games	21 games	+2
Orlando	23 games	21 games	+2
San Antonio*	23 games	21 games	+2
Clippers*	23 games	20 games	+3
Washington*	23 games	20 games	+3
Milwaukee	24 games	22 games	+2
Atlanta*	24 games	19 games	+5
Chicago	24 games	19 games	+5
Houston	25 games	23 games	+2
Charlotte	28 games	23 games	+5

Last Monday, perhaps in honor of MLK, for the first time since Opening Day, no team was required to play a game on tired legs. 

They came close on Friday, when only the Lakers played for a second consecutive night.

Back-to-Back-to-Backs

The Magic and Clippers each went two-for-three in their Week Four three-fers, wrapping up 13 of the 42 on the season’s slate. 

The NBA should have turned its need for teams to play three games in three nights to a marketing advantage.  They could have given the sequence a trademarked name, recruited a corporate sponsor (a triple-edged razor, perhaps? maybe add a third fruit flavor to Sprite?), boosted BRI and made even Billy Hunter happy.

It’s not too late to cash in, though.

Abacus has a suggestion—should Don Stern or one of his consigliere happen by these parts.

In the spirit of the sausage races that are so popular in MLB, why not sponsor a contest to predict whether teams will win most often in Game 1, Game 2 or Game 3 of the trifectas?  Can you guess who’s taken the early lead?

Game 1	Game 2	Game 3
8 - 5	6 - 7	9 - 4

Weren’t expecting that, were you?

And here are the individual statistical leaders in these mini-marathons, some Stat-Sheet Stuffers with Stamina, as Clark Kellogg might put it.

Scoring	K. Bryant, LAL, 83	K. Durant, OKC, 74	K. Martin, Hou, 73
Rebounds	D. Howard, Orl, 52	K. Love, Minn, 43	B. Griffin, LAC, 42
Assists	K. Lowry, Hou, 34	R. Rubio, Minn, 32	D. Augustin, Char, 28

This week’s three-fers: New Jersey (Saturday through Monday) and Portland (Monday through Wednesday).

Go Figure!

Wednesday night, a team managed to misfire on 65 attempts at its goal and commit 17 turnovers.  This is not terribly shocking when you consider that this was the league’s worst team playing against the league’s best.

What is at least surprising, if not shocking, is that the woeful Wizards beat Oklahoma City 105-102 despite being outshot from the field by a full 10 percent (48-38).  A dozen of the Washington misses were on free throws.  And the Thunder’s two studs went off for more than 60.

So, how did they do it?

Well, eight Wizard players pitched in to pound the glass for 19 offensive rebounds—that will offset some errant shooting.  Earning 43 trips to the charity stripe will aid the cause as well.  And while the run-and-gun Thunder were able to push the pace of play to over 100 possessions, they never established any team rhythm, as only super-sub James Harden was able to support the scoring of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook with more than six points.

Here’s a box-score truism for you.

The story of a basketball game is told by three statistics: field goal percentage, total rebounds and turnovers.  The team that gains an outright edge in at least two of those areas wins between 75 and 80 percent of the time.

The Wizards won the rebound battle 52-43, and committed only 17 turnovers compared to 21 for OKC.  Overall, despite their dreadful shooting, Washington was successful on 51 percent of its possessions compared to 48 percent for the Thunder.

There’s more than one way to win a ballgame.

Great sport, this basketball, isn’t it?

Check out the Abacus take on Week 1, Week 2 and Week 3.