Last week, Alex Marvez of Fox Sports appeared on 560 WQAM's Joe Rose Show.
"There's no guarantee Andrew Luck would even come to the Miami Dolphins anyway," Marvez told Rose.
"He controls his fate," he said. "If the Miami Dolphins have the first pick and he's not happy with what the administration is here, if he's not happy with who his head coach is or what direction the franchise is headed, I could see this guy really easily doing a Peyton Manning or Eli Manning and trying to control his own fate in the draft."
(Listen to the entire segment here.)
As some of you may recall, Peyton Manning was eligible for the 1997 NFL draft, but chose to stay at Tennessee rather than play for hapless organizations like the Rams or Raiders (imagine if he went to the Rams). And remember, Luck is only a redshirt junior and could choose to stay at Stanford next season.
Eli Manning and John Elway are other famous examples of players dictating their own draft fates. Both refused to play for the team that held the first overall pick in their respective drafts, and both were traded to more desirable franchises.
But will Andrew Luck embark on such a path if the Dolphins hold the first pick in April?
First of all, Marvez believes that Luck will refuse to play for the 'Fins if:
A. He doesn't like the head coach or administration in place, or
B. He doesn't like the direction that the franchise is headed in.
However, Stephen Ross will definitely clean house after this season. At this point, it's very, very safe to assume that everybody from Jeff Ireland to Tony Sparano to Mike Nolan—and everybody in between—will be fired.
And as Armando Salguero reported, Ross will do everything in his power to land an established, championship-caliber, big-name head coach.
Would Luck be discouraged from playing for a guy like Bill Cowher, Jeff Fisher or Jon Gruden (don't think that Monday Night Football contract means anything)?
Not a chance. In fact, that would probably entice him to play for the Dolphins.
Secondly, let's take a look at the other teams currently leading the Andrew Luck sweepstakes: the Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams.
Are either of these teams more appealing than the Dolphins?
If Luck goes to Indianapolis, he will be forced to sit behind Peyton Manning for at least three or four seasons. Plus, the Colts have an abhorrent defense and no running game.
Do you believe that Andrew Luck would refuse to play for the Dolphins?
The Rams have a whopping $78 million invested in Sam Bradford, who they selected with the first overall pick just two years ago. Bradford brought the Rams within one game of the playoffs last year, so it's hard to see St. Louis picking Luck despite its current struggles.
The Denver Broncos are a very appealing team on the cusp of the sweepstakes. John Elway, the Broncos VP of player personnel, also starred at Stanford, and John Fox is a stable, proven head coach. However, Denver already has two wins and figures to finish the season with at least one or two more, leaving them on the outside looking in.
Now, consider the lure of Miami.
Luck would come to a historically great franchise with rich tradition. The fanbase has been starving for a quarterback since 1999, and Luck would be heralded as the messiah and beloved by the entire city immediately (not to mention, Miami is a lively, beautiful city).
More importantly, Luck would be blessed with Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess, a budding young running back in Daniel Thomas and an offensive line anchored by Jake Long and Mike Pouncey. The Dolphins also have the foundation of an elite defense.
With a fresh start under a new regime, the Dolphins could easily reemerge as contenders with Luck at the helm within a year or two.
Miami easily presents the best scenario for Luck. No doubt about it.
Of course, it's also possible that Luck chooses to stay at Stanford for another season in pursuit of a national title and/or the Heisman Trophy. However, it's extremely difficult to envision this scenario coming to fruition, especially because Luck will probably win the Heisman this season and Stanford will probably play in a BCS Bowl.
Which team presents the most alluring situation for Luck?
Plus, if the Dolphins land the top selection in April's draft, they would make for such an attractive suitor. There's very minimal chance that whoever holds the first pick in the 2013 draft will be more alluring to Luck.
Miami might be in disarray now, but after this season concludes, the slate will be wiped clean.
Marvez's theory is certainly feasible and understandable, but it is also a bit ludicrous. He fails to factor in the arrival of a new regime—which will definitely happen—and the surplus of talent that Miami has.
If the Dolphins win the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes and Luck chooses to enter the draft, rest assured that he will happily don aqua and orange in 2012.