NFL Free Agents 2011: 18 Players Guaranteed to Disappoint This Season

With NFL free agency now in full swing, fans and pundits can begin thinking about how their teams' new changes will fare in 2011.

On the face of it some moves seem like great fits while others appear to defy explanation. Inevitably, some of the free agents already off the market will struggle to line up to their lucrative new deals. Others, meanwhile, will emerge as surprisingly good investments.

Those still on the market may not be as impressive as they first appear.

In a purely speculative exercise, here is a list of 18 free agents who, at this early stage, look destined for a poor campaign. 

18. Takeo Spikes, ILB (San Diego Chargers)

It would be a shame to see a solid veteran like Takeo Spikes endure a tough season. On the face of it, his move to San Diego is a good one; Spikes is reunited with defensive coordinator Greg Manusky.

But the defensive line is not what it used to be for the Chargers. Defensive end is an area of concern. Luis Castillo has suffered an alarming loss of form and could wind up being replaced by rookie Corey Liuget.  Spikes will also no longer have the luxury of Issac Sopoaga and Justin Smith tying up blockers in front of him.

By moving to the AFC West, Spikes has exposed himself to better-caliber offenses than the ones he faced in his 2010 stomping ground—in particular, the rushing attacks are far superior. Spikes seems certain to see plenty of action attempting to corral the potent running games of the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chargers' best three inside linebackers are still on the free-agent market. At 34, Spikes will need a strong partner to help share the load.

San Diego may have boasted the top statistical defense in football last year, but it will be difficult to repeat that feat without Ron Rivera's scheming. It looks set to be a long, hard season for Spikes.

17. Brad Smith, WR (Buffalo Bills)

Brad Smith's decision to leave a perennial contender in the New York Jets for a perennial AFC East flop in the Buffalo Bills is certainly a brave one.

Smith has the versatile skill set that could match well with the creative play-calling of Chan Gailey. But trying to make good use of the wildcat in the division that was first exposed to it might be a tall order.

The Jets, along with the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins, are all experienced in game-planning to stop the kind of wildcat formations for which Smith is best suited.

16. Quintin Mikell, S (St. Louis Rams)

Even in the New York Giants' 2007 Super Bowl season, the safeties were routinely exposed in Steve Spagnuolo's complex fire zone schemes.

Quintin Mikell will become the focal point for every quarterback who faces the St. Louis Rams to attack.  The Rams possess a good pass-rush, but the pressure will still be on Mikell to prove he can handle being a prime target.

Mikell will get plenty of opportunities to show he is ready for maximum exposure. The Rams face the wide open passing attacks of the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Giants, the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints.

That's on top of having to handle Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis and now Sidney Rice, twice each. If Mikell is found wanting, the Rams will be burned for a host of big plays.

15. Donte' Stallworth, WR (Washington Redskins)

Veteran Donte' Stallworth has a lot of work to do to earn a roster spot with the Washington Redskins. Even if he makes it onto the field, Stallworth could struggle for more than a limited role.

Having re-signed Santana Moss, the Redskins have their lead receiver, then the team traded for Jabar Gaffney. Gaffney has proven to be a capable No. 2 flanker in recent years, and he is coming off back-to-back seasons with 50 or more receptions.

One of Stallworth's best attributes is his ability to go deep. Anthony Armstrong demonstrated some proficiency in this area in 2010 and is younger with far less baggage.

The Redskins also don't possess a quarterback with the arm strength to take advantage of the best parts of Stallworth's game.

14. Tarvaris Jackson, QB (Seattle Seahawks)

Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll loves a gamble. Signing former Minnesota Vikings flop Tarvaris Jackson to lead the Seahawks' offense is certainly a huge risk.

It's hard to feel confident about this signing. The Seahawks seem incapable of fielding a healthy offensive line and have an unreliable running game.

Add in a suspect defense, and a lot is being asked of Jackson, who crumbled with more to work with in Minnesota.

The Seahawks lack a clear identity on offense. The addition of Sidney Rice is not enough to make them a designated pass first team, and they don't have the backfield workhorse to make them a power team.

Jackson has yet to prove he can consistently succeed at the pro level—that's not good news considering the Seahawks face a first-place schedule.

The reigning NFC West champions face road games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears. They also entertain the always-tough Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles.

It's hard to see Jackson lighting up the scoreboards in any of these contests.

13. Sidney Rice, WR (Seattle Seahawks)

There's no denying the talent of wide receiver Sidney Rice, but his decision to move to the Seattle Seahawks could have detrimental consequences for his prospects in 2011.

Rice could have stayed with the Minnesota Vikings and worked with a proven quarterback in Donovan McNabb. Instead he opted to sign for a Seahawks outfit with more questions than answers and reunite with equally uncertain quarterback Tarvaris Jackson.

Rice will have to hope Seattle develops a running game and offensive line that will put Jackson in a position to get him the ball. It looks a long shot at this early stage.

12. Johnathan Joseph, CB (Houston Texans)

Johnathan Joseph will be under a tremendous amount of pressure to improve the Houston Texans' pass-defense this season. The main problem for Joseph is that it could be down to him alone to fix it.

New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will find ways to create a lot of pressure, but he will often leave his corners on an island, and Joseph's man coverage skills will be pushed beyond his limit.

Phillips' schemes are often too gung-ho, and many cornerbacks have cracked under the pressure of being isolated one-on-one so often.

Having to deal with Peyton Manning twice under such circumstances is bad enough; Joseph will also be confronted by Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.

11. Matt Hasselbeck, QB (Tennessee Titans)

Matt Hasselbeck certainly has the talent to lead the Tennessee Titans back to the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

Whether the notoriously brittle passer can stay healthy long enough to do it, in what promises to be a tough AFC South, seems highly doubtful.

It's difficult to envisage Hasselbeck surviving a two-game stretch against the Indianapolis Colts and their bookend pass-rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Then there's the Houston Texans and Mario Williams. New Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips can be counted on to dial up the pressure.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have made their defense a lot more imposing by adding linebackers Paul Posluszny and Clint Session.

It all spells trouble for the injury-prone Hasselbeck, who is a streak passer, to be reliant on consistent starts to establish a proper rhythm.

10. Jason Babin, DE (Philadelphia Eagles)

In 2010, Jason Babin surprised the league with a Pro Bowl-caliber season. In 2011, opponents will be ready for him.

Joining the Philadelphia Eagles reunites Babin with defensive line guru Jim Washburn, but without further help, Babin will struggle to match the double-digit sacks he posted last season.

The Eagles need bigger and better defensive tackles. The wide alignments Washburn favours for his defensive ends requires disruptive tackles to ensure one-on-one matchups on the outside.

Without the help, Babin will join a long list of high-profile defensive ends such as Jevon Kearse, who failed to produce in the Eagles' schemes.

9. Stewart Bradley, LB (Arizona Cardinals)

NFL.com reports that Stewart Bradley is discussing a deal with the Arizona Cardinals; the move is a risk for both parties.

Bradley has performed well in the past thanks to an Eagles system that was built to accommodate a big plugger at middle linebacker.

In Arizona, Bradley will be required to display greater range and mobility. The 4-3 veteran will have to undergo the difficult transition to a 3-4 in a limited period of time.

It's difficult to see the often-injured Bradley being an immediate hit in the desert.

8. Ray Edwards, DE (Minnesota Vikings)

Minnesota Vikings defensive end Ray Edwards has attracted interest from a lot of teams, but potential suitors need to be a little wary.

Edwards has the talent, but his attitude and dedication are sometimes lacking. For the kind of money he is expecting, these type of concerns make Edwards a very risky investment.

He has not always thrived in Minnesota. Edwards has often failed to take full advantage of the attention paid to premier pass-rush ace Jared Allen on the other side of the Vikings' line.

Edwards has also greatly benefited from the play of mammoth defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams.  The left-sided rush end will find it difficult to take on the role of a defense's focal point elsewhere.

7. Stephen Tulloch, MLB (Tennessee Titans)

Tennessee Titans MLB Stephen Tulloch registered 160 tackles in 2010.

But he is not a safe bet to lead a defensive charge in 2011.

Tulloch is often criticised for making the majority of his stops after a significant gain has already been made. Despite being protected in the Titans' Tampa-2 style scheme, Tulloch has been found wanting in coverage.

By openly declaring his intention to test himself in free agency, Tulloch has set himself a challenge to prove he merits being regarded as an elite defensive playmaker.

The Titans' apparent willingness to let him walk indicates Tulloch has yet to fully convince.

6. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (New York Giants)

Ahmad Bradshaw won't be able to surprise the league in the same manner he did in 2010; he will be a marked man in 2011.

Bradshaw has not aided his preparation for what promises to be a rough season by refusing to fully commit his future to the New York Giants. His flirtation with the Miami Dolphins and eagerness for the best possible contract are unlikely to have endeared him to Tom Coughlin. His conduct could even alienate teammates.

Bradshaw needs to quickly commit himself to Big Blue, then resolve the troubling fumbling issues that plagued him last year.

The signs are worrying that 2010 may have gone to Bradshaw's head, and once top dollar is secured, the drive to prove himself won't be as strong.

5. Cullen Jenkins, DT (Green Bay Packers)

Cullen Jenkins seems certain to secure a lucrative move away from the Super Bowl champions before this free-agent market closes.

Jenkins should be careful what he wishes for, though.

Jenkins is a talented pass-rusher who poses a considerable threat at both end and tackle. In Green Bay, he is in a scheme perfectly suited to his talents.

The Packers line up in a four-man front for the majority of their defensive snaps. Jenkins is able to concentrate on rushing upfield and penetrating the guard and tackle gap.

The 30-year-old has suffered numerous injuries in recent seasons and is unlikely to be able to handle an every-down load at DE anymore.

But Jenkins remains an extremely dangerous situational and sub package weapon; a nice fit for hm would have been the New England Patriots.

But since Albert Haynesworth has gone to Boston to fulfill the same purpose, Jenkins should strongly consider remaining with the Packers.

He will jeopardise his longevity and have an indifferent season as a full-time five-technique on another team.

4. Jeremy Shockey, TE (Carolina Panthers)

Injuries and inconsistency continue to plague Jeremy Shockey. His move to the Carolina Panthers seems unlikely to result in a quick turnaround either.

Shockey joins a rebuilding team looking to bounce back from a 2-14 capitulation in 2010. Shockey has always wanted to be the main man for an offense, but with Steve Smith and a strong running game in place, as well as the Panthers' recent trade for tight end Greg Olsen, Shockey's ambitions are unlikely to be met.

With a rookie quarterback attempting to send a limited number of passes his way, Shockey could easily revert to the tantrums and sulking that have often overshadowed his immense talent.

3. Braylon Edwards, WR (New York Jets)

Now that the New York Jets have re-signed Santonio Holmes to a lengthy deal, and amidst rumours they are also interested in acquiring Randy Moss, the future of Braylon Edwards seemingly lies elsewhere.

Legal troubles continue to surround Edwards, and not many other tams may be willing to take a chance on him. 

Edwards has a good situation in New York. He has a decent rapport with quarterback Mark Sanchez and is complemented extremely well by Holmes.

Moving to a struggling team and trying to again be a No. 1 receiver is a recipe for disaster for Edwards, probably personally as well as professionally.

2. David Akers, K (San Francisco 49ers)

David Akers is coming off a disappointing conclusion to his 2010 campaign.

He missed two vital kicks in the Philadelphia Eagles' Wild Card playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers. Akers looked like a kicker who had lost his nerve and confidence—a change of scenery to the San Francisco 49ers may not be the best way to get those things back.

Kickers are creatures of habit, secure in familiar surroundings. They often take time to adjust to regularly kicking on a new home surface.

With the San Francisco 49ers' uncertainty at quarterback, Akers can expect to be called into action a lot.  During his recent exploits, that's not necessarily a good thing.

1. Marcus Stroud, DL (New England Patriots)

It's hard not to feel some sympathy for Marcus Stroud. He escapes the Buffalo Bills where he was not comfortable adjusting to a 3-4 front, only to wind up with the New England Patriots where he'll need to adjust to a 3-4 front.

Stroud was no doubt lured to New England with promises of pass-rushing opportunities in various sub packages and plenty of four-man fronts—then along comes Albert Haynesworth.

Stroud now faces an uphill battle just to make the team. He'll have to fight through an extremely deep line rotation, plus megalomaniac Haynesworth, in order to feature in the sub packages most suited to his skills.

If he can't, then it's back to trying to man the five-technique spot, where he'd better impress, or the Patriots have plenty of other options.

Every free agent will have something to prove to both his new club and his old employer. Every player hopes that a new deal will take them one step closer to a championship and personal glory.

But as things stand at this early stage, the athletes on this list are set for a tough 2011 season.