Buy or Sell Vegas Super Bowl Odds for Every NFL Team

As the football world awaits word for the NFLPA to re-certify and vote to approve the new collective bargaining agreement, the prospect of a NFL season in 2011 continues to look brighter by the day.

When you think about the unusual 2011 NFL season, which teams will be able to cope with the adversity and shortcomings to capture the Super Bowl? What odds would you give that team of winning it all right now?

Let's take a look at what kind of Super Bowl odds Las Vegas is currently placing on the chances of each team walking away as the champion. We will determine if the odds need to be adjusted higher (sell) or lower (buy) from the current number as each team prepares for the start of free agency.

Our Sources for This Presentation

For the 2011 NFL odds that we are using for this article, here is a link to the source, Vegas Insider.com. Please note that I am not a gambler, and this article was not intended to give any gambling advice.

But we don't have a problem in sharing our opinion if we think the odds are too low, too high or just right. You might want to come back to the link and see if the odds have changed once free agency has ended.

We also looked at "2011 Strength of Schedule Rankings" from ESPN. You can find their rankings here.

Finally, we also wanted to acknowledge an article from Big Lead Sports that addresses the issue of how important continuity is going to be in a short practice season in 2011.

Retaining the same head coach and both coordinators mean that it will be that much easier for teams to fall right back into where they left off—less downtime and more time allowed for fine-tuning.

The 12 teams that meet that criterion are Atlanta, New Orleans, Buffalo, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the New York Giants, Chicago, Jacksonville, Washington and Detroit.

It is not a surprise that six of the top seven favorites to win the Super Bowl come from this group of 12 teams. The article in question can be found here.

60-to-1 Odds: Carolina Panthers

At 60-to-one odds, the Carolina Panthers are projected to have the least likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.

Given that they had the worst team in the NFL last year, their head coach John Fox is gone and the new coach Ron Rivera has not had any time with the team to actually try to coach and improve them, the forecast is pretty bleak for this year.

In 49 days, the NFL is hopefully ready to begin the season on Sept. 11. Is 49 days enough time for Rivera to work in his philosophies, schemes and plays to a new team? No, not at all.

They will have to be scaled back. They have to find some plays that Cam Newton can execute, and they don't even know yet what he can do until they start playing against NFL defenses going full speed in a game.

There are safer things you can do with you money than betting on the Panthers to win it all. Sixty to one may be too generous. Think more like 75 to one.

It doesn't help that the Panthers have the most difficult schedule of all 32 NFL teams. Make that 80 to one.

50-to-1 Odds: Arizona Cardinals

Next up at 50-to-one odds are the Arizona Cardinals. Some things that can happen in the not too distant future could change those odds in a hurry.

The Cardinals are looking to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Philadelphia Eagles. If they acquire him, he will have a field day throwing the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, who is a much larger target than the smaller wide receivers he tried to throw to in Philadelphia.

If the defense is able to improve with the addition of players like Patrick Peterson and Sam Acho, it is possible that those playmakers can change the outcome of a couple games. A couple extra wins might be all that is needed to capture the NFC West. Then, once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen.

Do I need to remind you that the Cardinals have the easiest schedule out of all 32 teams? Might make sense to take the 50-to-one odds as soon as Kolb is traded to Arizona and invest some money that it wouldn't kill you to lose.

50-to-1 Odds: Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos have a few things working against them.

First of all, head coach John Fox is new to the team. It will take some time to introduce all the concepts and philosophies that he wants to share with his team. Time is the one thing that he does not have, however, based on the 2011 peculiar season.

Then there is the QB situation. Do they start Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow or Brady Quinn? Do they trade one? Does this issue cause any kind of issue in the locker room over which leader the team wanted to follow?

The Broncos have to vastly improve the NFL's worst defense from 2010. Drafting Von Miller, Rahim Moore, Nate Irving and Quinton Carter will help, but they will need time to develop as NFL performers.

The Broncos are tied for the third-most difficult NFL schedule in 2011. The presence of John Elway doesn't do anything to improve their Super Bowl aspirations for 2011 specifically. Maybe somewhere down the road, but not now. For now, 50 to one seems about right.

50-to-1 Odds: Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills inherited the second-most difficult schedule in the NFL for 2011. For a team that hasn't been to the playoffs for 11 years running, that is not what they needed.

Perhaps 2011 is too early for this rebuilding team to reach the playoffs, but it is not out of the question that this team is ready to start making some noise in the NFL.

The Bills extended playoff teams like Baltimore, Kansas City and Pittsburgh last season. They improved the worst run defense in the NFL with the addition of Marcell Dareus, Aaron Williams and Kelvin Sheppard.

The Bills have $38 million under the salary cap to invest in the team, so re-signing Paul Posluszny and Drayton Florence to new contracts will help.

The Bills should also have money left to land a quality free agent tackle for the offensive line, a backup veteran quarterback and another pass rusher to add to Shawne Merriman and Arthur Moats.

If they fill out those holes, the Bills might surprise some people. The fanbase is excited about the new retro-style uniforms, and a new field surface adds to the promise of what the Bills will bring to the 2011 season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick wants to build off his 3,000-yard season. With receivers like Steve Johnson and Lee Evans, who have 1,000-yard seasons under their belts, and Fred Jackson, a 1,000-yard rusher in 2009, the Bills have the weapons to score some points.

Thinking the 50-to-one odds should be more like 30 to one.

40-to-1 Odds: Cleveland Browns

Can Peyton Hillis break the Madden curse? Can Colt McCoy build on his rookie season? Will the Browns rookie class have enough time to make much of an impact in 2011?

How far into the season can new head coach Pat Shurmur install all of his offense? Will Greg Little emerge as the leading receiver for the Browns?

If it seems like there are lots of questions surrounding the Browns team in 2011, that is because there are. Starting out a new regime in Cleveland under the 2011 circumstances is going to result in Coach Shurmur facing an uphill battle for the rest of the year.

Hopefully the Browns faithful recognizes what is going on and doesn't try to run him out of town if things don't go their way.

The Browns added some studs to their defensive line in Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard. The Browns are tied for the 22nd-easiest schedule, but that would only be a factor if the coaching staff had a full offseason to prepare the team.

As it stands now, it would not be a surprise to see the team struggle early. Expect the Browns to show improvement as the season goes along.

As far as the 40-to-one odds for 2011 go, that seems about right. The odds will not be so steep next year, however.

40-to-1 Odds: Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals hope that their draft picks in the past several years will form the nucleus of an exciting offense for years to come.

With wide receiver A.J. Green, tight end Jermaine Gresham and quarterback Andy Dalton, that trio will be looking to create some excitement for Bengals fans.

It appears that 2011 is too early to expect big results from them. They will need time to gain some valuable experience and time to gel as a unit. With the departure of Carson Palmer and Terrell Owens and the expected exit of Chad Ochocinco, that is just too much experience and talent for a team to overcome all of those departures in one season.

It is a shame because the 2011 Bengals have the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL, but they will be wasting that opportunity on a team that is just not going to be ready to challenge in 2011. If they happen to lose other key veterans in free agency (corner Johnathan Joseph comes to mind), then the battle will be even harder.

I am thinking the odds at 40 to one are too generous. I'm thinking it should be more like 50 to one for this year.

40-to-1 Odds: Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders are coming off a .500 season and swept the AFC West division with a perfect 6-0 season in 2010, yet the Las Vegas oddsmakers have them coming in at 40-to-one odds to win the Super Bowl.

If I were a Raiders fan, I would probably be tempted to take some of that action only because 40 to one seems out of line.

The Raiders made their offensive coordinator from 2010, Hue Jackson, the head coach, so at least the 2011 Raiders team doesn't have to start its offense over from page one. There will be some degree of continuity for the team. 

The Raiders would like to see Jason Campbell continue to feel comfortable in the offense and develop more chemistry with his weapons on offense.

The Raiders probably will not retain Nnamdi Asomugha due to the large contract offers that he is sure to receive. That loss will not be easy to overcome. But the Raiders drafted a fast corner in DeMarcus Van Dyke and picked up some talent for the offensive line in Stefen Wisniewski and Joe Barksdale.

The Raiders have the 19th-hardest schedule in 2011, so if they can only find a way to crank out two more wins to become 10-6, they might find themselves in the playoffs.

30-to-1 Odds: Minnesota Vikings

As long as Adrian Peterson is healthy, the Minnesota Vikings are going to be in every game this season. Who winds up taking the majority of snaps under center for the team is still one of the key issues as we approach the new season.

Will the Vikings really let Christian Ponder be thrown to the Lions (literally), or will he be allowed to observe for half a season while some veteran free-agent quarterback comes in to show him the ropes?

Adding some key pieces like Kyle Rudolph for the offense and Christian Ballard and Brandon Burton on defense helps to bring some new blood and energy to the team.

Kevin Williams and Pat Williams seem to have exhausted their legal options, so they appear to be resigned to the fact that they will be suspended for the first four games of the season. That does not help.

What about free agency? Can the Vikings keep Sidney Rice? That will dictate how explosive the Vikings offense will be in 2011. The Vikings have the 10th-hardest schedule in the NFL, so that doesn't help.

Based on how little time Ponder has, or any new veteran QB that the Vikings sign will have, it appears the offense will not be firing on all cylinders early on.

The Vikings' 2011 season can change dramatically over the next 10 days or so, but for right now the 30-to-one odds appear to be about right.

30-to-1 Odds: Seattle Seahawks

Who is going to be the Seattle Seahawks quarterback in 2011? Is it Matt Hasselbeck, Kevin Kolb or some other yet to be identified NFL veteran free agent?

We know that the NFL experts were left to scratch their collective heads over the curious drafting of James Carpenter in the first round. The offensive line was was fortified with the additions of Carpenter and guard John Moffitt, but they did not really land any major skill players to improve the offense.

The Seahawks were able to emerge from the weak NFC West division to land a playoff berth in 2010, but somehow the 2011 version seems to be a worse team than last year, if that is possible.

We will see what transpires in free agency, but for now, color me skeptical that the Seahawks can repeat and win their division for a second year in a row.

Despite the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL, I am thinking the odds should move back from 30 to one to 40 to one instead.

30-to-1 Odds: Tennessee Titans

The good news is that the 2011 Tennessee Titans are tied for the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL. The bad news is that the team they are going to field in 2011 is not ready to take advantage of that schedule.

Kerry Collins and Jeff Fisher are gone. Vince Young is probably gone. Chris Johnson wants to hold out. Enter new head coach Mike Munchak and first-round draft pick quarterback Jake Locker. Both of them will probably be forced to feel their way along as the 2011 season goes.

It would help the Titans' chances if the team could sign free agent quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. That makes the offense much more productive and speeds up the maturity process for Locker all at once.

What also helps is the addition of some new talent to the defense in Akeem Ayers, Jurrell Casey and Colin McCarthy.

The Titans need to find a way to sign Chris Johnson to a long-term deal and remove all of his contract-related moaning and groaning. It is a major distraction. They need to turn the page on Young and Fisher and go forward.

But for 2011, 30-to-one odds seem rather generous. I am thinking more like 45 to one.

30-to-1 Odds: Detroit Lions

When I saw the odds posted at 30 to one, I knew the Detroit Lions would find the ranking to be just like getting slapped in the face.

Of course, this is a team on the rise—that is a given. But I think what the oddsmakers are stating here is that they do not believe that Matthew Stafford has the ability to stay healthy for one full season.

More like I will believe it when I see it. If you consider it from that perspective, then maybe 30 to one makes a little more sense.

Over the last three years, the Lions have gone from 0-16 to 2-14 to 6-10. So what will 2011 look like? Is a record of 8-8 or 9-7 realistic?

Would that be in line with the type of gradual growth that they have been demonstrating, or is a leap up to 10-6 like Tampa Bay pulled off last year more in line with expectations?

The Lions were not presented with any favors by the NFL schedule makers, as they have the sixth-hardest schedule in 2011. The biggest issue for the Lions will be what can they do in free agency to address their issues at linebacker and in the secondary.

Upgrading the back seven on defense will probably prove to be just as important to their 2011 fortunes, as is the health of Stafford.

If their draft picks Nick Fairley, Titus Young and Mikel Leshoure are able to contribute this year, that will help. But until the Lions are as good in the secondary and linebacking corps as they are on the defensive line, major question marks will remain.

I am in favor of moving the odds from 30 to one down to 20 to one.

25-to-1 Odds: Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins are expected to be a major player in free agency. Will the Redskins land a quarterback to challenge John Beck as the starter, or will they truly go with the unproven Beck to start out head coach Mike Shanahan's second campaign in Washington?

Donovan McNabb appears to be on his way out of Washington. Between McNabb and Albert Haynesworth, the Redskins do not have the greatest track record of signing major free agents that make a positive impact.

The extent to which they can reverse that in 2011 is a key question in trying to determine if they can be a realistic team to compete at the highest levels or not.

The Redskins were ranked in the lower half of every facet of offense and defense except for their passing attack. However, it seems that they are willing to let McNabb leave, so that takes away their one area of strength.

When you consider that the Redskins are tied for the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2011, there is cause for some hope. But if you analyze all of the issues stated above, 25 to one doesn't seem to fit.

I would move it back up to 40 to one.

25-to-1 Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head coach Raheem Morris was able to turn his Tampa Bay Buccaneers team into a winning team last year at 10-6. The rest of the league will now be ready for the Bucs in 2011, so the Bucs will have to back up their coach and prove that 2010 was not a fluke.

The Bucs stocked up their defensive line with the additions of Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers. If Bowers can play like the top-10 pick that he was originally projected to become, that would be a major boost for the Bucs defense.

The Bucs have the 18th-hardest schedule in the NFL. My reaction to the 25-to-one odds is that it appears they have not won enough respect yet, and people still are not convinced that they are a playoff-caliber team.

If the Bucs can repeat with a double-digit win total, that would give the detractors sufficient reason to consider them a legitimate contender.

As things stand now, before the start of free agency, I think the Bucs should be in the 20-to-one range. If they land a solid corner, you could consider moving the odds to 15 to one.

25-to-1 Odds: St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams were smart to invest in some new weapons to surround quarterback Sam Bradford with. Drafting Lance Kendricks, Austin Pettis and Greg Salas means that Bradford should be throwing plenty of passes to all of the rookies for years to come.

Can they land a skilled veteran wide receiver that could upgrade the offense to another level? That appears to be one key question that needs to be answered over the next several weeks.

The Rams helped their defense with the addition of Robert Quinn. The Rams are moving in the right direction, and in the NFC West anything is possible. The Rams have the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL, so any major improvements made via free agency could easily catapult this team to the top of the NFC West.

As far as the odds go, 25 to one seems to be correct. The Rams will need to allow some time to pass before Bradford can start to gel with the three rookie targets. I see the Rams improving as the season unfolds, but the early going could see them struggle.

That is why signing a veteran free agent that can teach the rookies will help. For now, let's keep it at 25-to-one odds and be ready to change that if they land the veteran wideout.

25-to-1 Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars hope that the drafting of quarterback Blaine Gabbert will be a sufficient motivating factor to propel the play of veteran David Garrard to a higher level. If that happens, it might be sufficient to land the Jaguars a playoff berth.

The Colts are concerned about Peyton Manning's neck injury rehab. The Texans have to figure out how to redo their secondary. The Titans really don't figure to contend this year. Thus, there is a window of opportunity in the AFC South for the Jaguars if they are ready to take it.

The first thing they have to do is conquer a tough schedule. The Jaguars are tied for the third-hardest schedule in the NFL. That is a major hurdle, but with the running attack of Maurice Jones-Drew and an inspired Garrard, they might be able to pull it off.

For now, I am content with the 25-to-one odds.

25-to-1 Odds: Miami Dolphins

On the surface, the 2011 Miami Dolphins may be one of the hardest teams to figure out. I am talking about the mixed messages they send out to the rest of the football world and trying to understand what their true identity is as a team. 

For starters, their running back by committee of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams appears to have exited the team. Replacing the veteran duo is rookie Daniel Thomas.

To put that much trust in a rookie that does not know the system or what it is like to run behind his offensive line means that the early part of the season could be painful to watch.

The Dolphins decided not to draft a quarterback but don't seem to have total faith in returning starter Chad Henne. If the Dolphins can land Vince Young to come in and compete, then Henne will know what it must have felt like to be Tony Sparano when owner Stephen Ross was courting Jim Harbaugh.

The Dolphins did add some nice pieces to the team by drafting Mike Pouncey and Edmond Gates. But, until the team is fully behind a quarterback that can play every week at a playoff-caliber level, this is a team that appears to be stuck in neutral at the moment.

I would drop the odds from 25 to one to 30 to one.

20-to-1 Odds: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers might have made a huge steal when they drafted Colin Kaepernick, but it appears the team is content to bring back Alex Smith for one more time and see if they can finally determine if he is the real deal or not.

That will stunt the growth of Kaepernick, but based on how much change Smith has been forced to endure in San Francisco, it is probably the right move.

The 49ers will play hard for new head coach Jim Harbaugh, partly because Harbaugh is good, and partly because they are doing cartwheels that old-school Mike Singletary is gone.

But the reality is that Harbaugh will be hard pressed to implement everything that he wanted to do. In the new NFL, two-a-days are taboo, so this probably ties Harbaugh's hands greatly. As a result, I see the 49ers getting better towards the end of this year and definitely in the 2012 season.

But as far as the first half of 2011 goes, not so much.

The 49ers did pick up some nice young talent in the draft in Aldon Smith, Chris Culliver and Kendall Hunter. It is unfortunate that the team did not have a full offseason with Harbaugh, because the 49ers have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2011 and are playing in the ultra-weak NFC West.

Too bad they aren't really in a position to fully take advantage of all those factors.  Move the 20 to one to 25 to one.

20-to-1 Odds: Houston Texans

It appears that the odds were set with the premise that the Texans were able to sign Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency. How can a team that was as badly torched in the secondary in 2010 come in as a 20-to-one favorite to win the Super Bowl?

Now, I do expect to see Houston land a top corner in free agency. They have enough cap space as well as dire need to be able to make that happen. The Texans also helped themselves with the addition of two defensive linemen in J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed.

Then you factor in the three new secondary draft picks in Brandon Harris, Rashad Carmichael and Shiloh Keo. Those five rookies will have a chance to make an impact this year. The problem is knowing how long it will take. Best guess is second half of the season.

So if the rookies are struggling early on due to lack of experience, coaching and practice, how can the Texans be slotted at 20 to one? I just don't see it.

For sure, with Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, the Texans are loaded on offense. But defense is just as important, and until the free agents and rookies have gained enough experience and time to gel together, I see the Texans as more of a 30-to-one odds team for 2011.

15-to-1 Odds: Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are ranked 14th as the favorite to win the Super Bowl with odds posted at 15 to one.

For Chiefs fans, they might think they are not getting enough love or respect, but for the rest of the NFL fans, they are wondering why did they get as much love and respect as they did.

The Chiefs were one of the surprise teams of the 2010 season in winning the AFC West. But just like the theme of Wide World of Sports, they tasted the joys of victory and the agony of defeat when they were embarrassed in their home playoff game by the Baltimore Ravens.

The deck is stacked somewhat against the Chiefs in 2011, as they have the sixth-hardest schedule in the NFL.

With rookies Jonathan Baldwin, Rodney Hudson, Justin Houston and Allen Bailey, the Chiefs added help to both sides of the ball. They are rumored to be interested in adding another wide receiver when free agency starts, but it remains to be seen who they pick up.

Personally, I would have preferred to see the odds at around 20 to one, but that is just me. Any team that has a running game led by Jamaal Charles has to be taken seriously.

8-to-1 Odds: New York Giants

The New York Giants have the 19th-hardest schedule in the NFL. That means that they have a fighting chance to make the playoffs in 2011. They are also one of the 12 teams that sport the same head coach and coordinators returning from the 2010 season.

From a continuity standpoint, then, they are ahead of the pack.

You look at who they drafted, and the Giants added some talent in Prince Amukamara, Marvin Austin and Jerrel Jernigan. The Giants have a number of key free agents that will be available, so they will need to try to secure as many of the quality free agents that they want to bring back to the fold as they can.

As a 10-6 team from 2010, the odds appear to favor the Giants returning to the playoffs. For a team that has failed to reach the playoffs for two straight years, eight to one might seem generous, but I like where they are at. The Giants could easily challenge this year.

8-to-1 Odds: Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears are one of those dozen NFL teams that are returning the same head coach and both of their coordinators from 2010. That is the good news. The bad news is that they are returning the same quarterback as well.

Just joking, Bears fans.

Jay Cutler is anxious to prove that he can take the Bears further in 2011, as they lost to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. The Bears are tied for the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL, so that is a major plus.

From a schedule and continuity analysis, the Bears appear poised to make another playoff run.

The Bears added Gabe Carimi, Stephen Paea and Chris Conte in the draft. What they do in free agency will determine if they can go even further in the playoffs this year. Adding a star receiver to their team could be the key missing piece.

At eight-to-one odds, the Bears are viewed already as serious contenders. I like them right there as well, and if they do land a stud wide receiver over the next week to two, I might bump that down to five to one.

7-to-1 Odds: Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles had an exciting 2010 regular season but a very short 2010 second season. The early exit in the playoffs should have this team fired up for 2011, and it appears that they are well poised to take advantage of what the free agent market will have to offer.

I really like the drafting of Danny Watkins. A great young man, he will be a solid addition. But if the Eagles trade away Kevin Kolb, it will be interesting to see who they bring in to back up Michael Vick, who might need some help on occasion due to his physical style of play.

From Nnamdi Asomugha to Plaxico Burress and every free agent in between, it appears that the Eagles are in a position to be a player in free agency. If they can secure an impact player or two that can get them over the top, this team has a very good chance of going all the way.

It will be interesting to see what kind of compensation the Eagles get for Kolb. Expect Vick to have a solid season and lead the Eagles back to the playoffs. Seven to one might need to be moved to five to one after the free-agency period ends.

6-to-1 Odds: Dallas Cowboys

To go from a 6-10 record to a six to one favorite to win the Super Bowl tells me that someone in Las Vegas has more faith in the Cowboys winning it all than I do.

There is no doubt that the Cowboys have some very strong assets on offense and some very skilled players on defense. But until they have proven that the current players are able to win just one playoff game, I have a hard time buying into the hype.

The Cowboys drafted Tyron Smith, Bruce Carter, DeMarco Murray and David Arkin to address the offensive line and backfield. Carter brings some new blood to the linebackers.

But there are some difficult decisions to make in free agency regarding some of the more expensive veterans and whether they will be axed to free up valuable salary cap space so that Dallas can address some holes that were not fixed in the draft.

The Cowboys at least are used to Jason Garrett coaching the team from his stint as interim coach in 2010. That is a plus. They have the 15th-hardest schedule in the NFL, so that is of negligible consequence.

What is more important is how does Tony Romo come back in 2011, and who can the Cowboys land in free agency that gets them over the top? As for the odds, I prefer 15 to one.

6-to-1 Odds: Baltimore Ravens

You have to wonder how much linebacker Ray Lewis has left in the tank. It would be fitting to see Lewis have one more shot at the Super Bowl. The Ravens got close last year but lost a heartbreaker to the Pittsburgh Steelers. How do the Ravens shape up for a title run in 2011?

For starters, they own the second-easiest schedule in the NFL. That is a great start. Somehow having to face Cleveland and Cincinnati twice a year does wonders for strength of schedule ranking.

The Ravens gained some valuable experience in the playoffs, especially Joe Flacco. Hopefully he learned from his turnovers and mistakes and will be better for it going forward.

The Ravens drafted talented corner Jimmy Smith, Torrey Smith, Jah Reid and Tandon Doss. There is some help there for Flacco, and if Smith can keep his head on straight and stay out of trouble, he should help the secondary improve.

If he can't stay straight, Ray Lewis will be there to teach him a lesson or two.

I like the Ravens very much this year and think they could easily be in the four-to-one or five-to-one range.

5-to-1 Odds: Atlanta Falcons

Coming off the best regular season record in the NFC in 2010, the Falcons could be able to duplicate it again in 2011.

They have the 11th-easiest schedule in the league. Their offense became more dynamic with the addition of wide receiver Julio Jones in the draft. Finally, they are one of only a dozen teams that bring back their head coach and both coordinators from last year.

Matt Ryan has another year of experience under his belt. The Falcons have been able to rank what free agents they think they need due to all of the extra time between the draft and the start of free agency, so I expect them to come out and go right after the players they place the most value on.

The question marks to me will be how well they can replace whatever offensive linemen they are prepared to lose via free agency. Experts always talk about how important it is for the offensive line to have chemistry and time to play together so that each guy knows what the other guy is going to do on every play.

However, there is the possibility that they may not lose just one starter on the line, but two. If that happens, it would be reflected more in the first half of the season than in the second half.

I do like the Falcons offense, but they have to improve the defense in free agency. I am OK with the current odds set at five to one for them.

5-to-1 Odds: New Orleans Saints

From Super Bowl winners to being ousted in the first round of the 2010 playoffs, the Saints would like to think they can come back in 2011 and extend their season further.

Many wonder if Reggie Bush will still be part of the team or if he will move on to greener pastures and less crowded backfields.

Drew Brees should be set for another strong season, but the Saints defense needs to improve in 2011 if they are to go anywhere. The defense that took the field against Seattle in the playoffs last year was nothing very special that day.

The Saints have the 13th-hardest schedule in the NFL. They have a big plus in continuity by returning their head coach and both coordinators. From a draft perspective, they gave their running game a boost with Mark Ingram and added Cameron Jordan, Martez Wilson and Johnny Patrick on defense.

The Saints look to be about right at five-to-one odds. If they can secure some more defensive help in free agency, I will like their odds even better.

5-to-1 Odds: Indianapolis Colts

As long as Peyton Manning is healthy and performing without major pain, the Indianapolis Colts are a strong threat to win their division and return to the playoffs.

The minute that Manning becomes injured to the point that he is out of the starting lineup for any extended period of time, the entire season would be cast in doubt. Such is the way of life for a team blessed with one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

There just isn't much cause to give reps to your backup when you have Peyton Manning. 

That is why the Colts will breathe easier when Manning is able to come in and start working with the Colts trainers and doctors again, as he attempts to rehab from his neck operation.

The Colts have the third-hardest schedule in the NFL, but that is offset by bringing back their three key coaches. The head coach and both coordinators are returning from 2010.

Assuming that Manning comes back to start the season healthy and has received enough reps in practice to be ready for the new season, we see no reason to change the odds.

If he is not ready for the start of the season, then the five-to-one odds would have to change accordingly.

5-to-1 Odds: San Diego Chargers

One of the biggest injustices of the 2010 season to my way of thinking was that the San Diego Chargers could have the No. 1-ranked offense and No. 1-ranked defense and not make the playoffs.

As Wallace Shawn (who played Vizzini) would say in The Princess Bride, "Inconceivable."

The Chargers have the chance to reclaim the AFC West in 2011 and try to take advantage of Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson while all of them are still together and playing in the prime of their careers.

The Chargers come in to 2011 with the sixth-hardest schedule in the NFL. They lost coordinator Ron Rivera to Carolina and so hope that Greg Manusky can come in and bring the Chargers defense to where Rivera left it—atop the NFL.

The Chargers went defensive with their first three draft picks, as they selected Corey Liuget, Marcus Gilchrist and Jonas Mouton. If the Chargers lose Eric Weddle in free agency, that would be a tough blow.

As it stands now, the five-to-one odds appear pretty good for the Chargers. The team is looking for big things from Ryan Mathews this year. Five-to-one odds for the Chargers appears to be a good call, assuming that the defense can learn quickly under Manusky.

4.5-to-1 Odds: New York Jets

The New York Jets are ranked in the top four teams to win it all in 2010, coming in at 4.5-to-one odds. The Jets don't have an easy schedule ahead of them however, as they have the third-hardest schedule in 2011.

The biggest area of concern is what happens with all of the Jets' veteran free agents. How many are they able to convince to stay in New York? Especially at wide receiver, the prospect of losing either Braylon Edwards or Santonio Holmes would be a big blow to the Jets.

Sure, there are other wide receivers that can be picked up in free agency, but the new receiver would not be on the same page with Mark Sanchez like either Holmes or Edwards.

The Jets addressed their defensive line with the addition of Muhammad Wilkerson and Kenrick Ellis in the draft, but free agency could very well determine how far the 2011 version of the Jets goes in the postseason.

If the Jets lose one or both of the wide receivers, consider dropping the odds to five to one or six to one.

4-to-1 Odds: New England Patriots

We are now officially down to our final three teams. They all have the same odds, at four to one. The first team we will discuss is the New England Patriots.

The Patriots had their usual high number of draft picks in the 2011 draft but failed to find any key players to help their pass rush. That appears to be the one area the team should look to address in free agency.

The Patriots did draft some new running backs, so their running game should be improved as a result. The Patriots selected Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley to be their new bookend running backs, sort of like last year, when they selected their rookie bookend tight ends.

In addition to the backs, the Patriots also drafted Nate Solder, Ras-I Dowling and Ryan Mallett to keep the pipeline full of talent.

The Patriots face the 15th-hardest schedule in the NFL. With all of the offensive weapons available to Tom Brady, you would think they will have a dangerous offense again.

The new rules that seem to be emerging from the CBA that are placing restrictions on two-a-days will cause head coach Bill Belichick to make some adjustments to the way he normally coaches.

If the Patriots do not find more pass rush through free agency, I would drop their odds down to five to one or six to one. If they do find some talent, four to one sounds about right.

4-to-1 Odds: Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers are four-to-one odds to repeat as Super Bowl champions. When you consider how many players the Packers lost to IR last year, they will be returning great depth to the 2011 roster.

In fact, it would not be a surprise to see other NFL teams pick up any Packers that were waived, considering that the replacements have gained valuable playoff experience and have experience winning.

The Packers did a solid job in the draft and restocked with the likes of Derek Sherrod, Randall Cobb, Alex Green, Davon House and D.J. Williams. There will probably be a few veterans that will be lost in free agency, but nothing that would decimate the team.

The Packers have the 13th-hardest schedule in the NFL this year. Based on that and the return of their head coach and both coordinators, the continuity couldn't be any better.

I look for the Packers to make a serious run at repeating in 2011, so I am looking to buy the odds at four to one.

4-to-1 Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers figure to have a very solid team coming back in 2011. They do not have any major suspensions yet, even though James Harrison seems to go out of his way to try to earn one.

Ben Roethlisberger is now married, so he should be able to stay out of trouble.

The Steelers are looking forward to playing against the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL. They are returning their coach and both coordinators, so there's great continuity. They will probably lose some veterans to free agency, but most of those are probably by design.

It appears that we could have a repeat of the two Super Bowl finalists from last year. The Steelers are well positioned to begin the 2011 season on a big roll and take that momentum with them throughout the year.

I am buying the Steelers at four-to-one odds.