Chicago Bears: 2011 Season Game-by-Game Predictions

As the National Football League prepares to shift gears from lockout to training camp, several questions arise about every team in the league. Will teams be able to sign their players, free agents, draft picks, unsigned draft picks and complete trades all before the preseason begins August 7?

Every team will have issues they need to address going forward into the 2011 season, and the Chicago Bears are no exception to the rule.

The Bears, who hosted the NFC Championship game against bitter rival Green Bay, fell just short of reaching the Super Bowl for the second time in five years.

Because of the team’s division championship last year coupled with the annual predetermined rotating schedule the NFL uses, Chicago will have a tough road in the upcoming campaign. The NFL’s 16-game schedule can be predicted well in advance in regards to all the opponents each team will play.

Every team will play their six divisional games, an entire division within its conference, an entire conference outside of its conference and two games against the teams that finished in the same position from the two other conference divisions.

That seems like a lot, so consider it in more understandable terms.

The Bears will play the Vikings, Packers and Lions two times apiece as a part of the divisional games. Since the NFC North division is scheduled to play the NFC South and AFC West, those teams will comprise an additional eight contests with the Saints, Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs.

The other two games will come against the other first place teams in the NFC outside of the South. Those teams are Philadelphia and Seattle.

So there’s the list of the opponents, but how will the Bears actually do in each one of those games? Does a veteran Bears team have another run for the Lombardi Trophy left in them? Or will the high expectations cripple the season group, leaving fans disappointed?

Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of the entire 2011 Bears schedule, complete with analysis and prediction:

Week 1: Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears

A tough opponent awaits the Bears at Soldier Field to begin the 2011 campaign.

Welcome in Atlanta, the conference’s best team last year with a 13-3 mark. The Falcons played very smart football last year. The Dirty Birds were a team built around ball control and dominating time of possession. It seemed like almost every drive featured a 4th-and-short that the Falcons attempted regularly.

The tough task for the Bears here is that this is basically the same Atlanta team, plus a few key weapons. This game will be the NFL debut of former Alabama wideout Julio Jones. The Falcons traded up with the Browns in April to snatch Jones, surrendering a significant amount of draft choices to do so. They must have serious plans for him to have given up so much.

Atlanta presents a mediocre defense and high-powered offense, scoring nearly 26 points a game in 2010. That offense, led by Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Tony Gonzales and Michael Turner, ranked fifth amongst the league at putting points on the board. Add in a second deep threat in Jones and Atlanta could be posting points like a pinball machine.

The Chicago defense will easily be put to the test. Holding Atlanta to 3rd-and-long chances will be key to containing an explosive offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense must be able to move the chains itself in order to have any chance. The Bears must score 30 or more points to contend.

PREDICTION: Falcons 33, Bears 23.

Week 2: Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints

No sooner than facing the NFC South’s best team in Atlanta will the Bears travel to the division’s runner-up and Super Bowl XLIV champion to tackle the Saints.

New Orleans, much like Atlanta, is a team that makes a living in the passing department. Anchored by Drew Brees, the Saints were the third-best aerial team last season. How is New Orleans so good? The names of the receivers Brees has to throw to seems to be an endless list. Receivers like Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem and Devry Henderson allow the Saints to run four receiver packages, just like a spread offense.

Every up has a down though, and the low point of the Saints offense is by far the ground game. New Orleans averaged 95 yards rushing a contest in 2010, good for 28th in the NFL.

Injuries certainly played a part here with Reggie Bush, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas all battling the injury bug. Rookie power running back Mark Ingram may provide some stability in the Saints backfield.

The Bears will again be tested in the secondary. The play of the safeties and corners will win or lose this game for Chicago. One way to improve the chances of poorly thrown balls or forced passes would be to apply pressure to Brees in the pocket. Expect the Bears to create chances for Julius Peppers to get involved and pressure Brees into making poor decisions.

Defense will determine the outcome.

PREDICTION: Saints 27, Bears 17.

Week 3: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears seem to be running through an NFC elite team gauntlet the first three weeks of the season. If a home game against the hated Packers, who knocked the Bears out of Super Bowl contention in January, doesn’t get the team jump started, then what will?

The Green Bay defense has transformed into one that is truly unforgiving. Clay Matthews has established himself as a dominant force at linebacker, making opposing offensive lines game plan for his blitzing abilities well in advance.

Charles Woodson, 34, and Tramon Williams, 28, provide veteran play at cornerback. Add in a nice season from Nick Collins as well, and the Packers finished the season with an impressive plus-10 turnover ratio. Such a high number emphasizes the team’s good ball control and takeaway ability.

In this matchup with the Bears, Matt Forte could be the key at running back. Forte averaged 4.4 yards per carry in the three matchups between Chicago and Green Bay last season, including the playoffs. If he could pace the Bears' attack, then the pressure would be on emerging superstar Aaron Rodgers to keep pace on offense.

Plenty is said about the league’s oldest rivalry about how both teams can’t wait to show up one another when they take to the grid iron together. These games always seem to be hard-hitting, physical contests. Football fans should be happy when they get to see an NFC Championship rematch in Week 3.

PREDICTION: Bears 24, Packers 20.

Week 4: Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears

Carolina should be an easier game for the Bears to secure this year compared to last, hoping that Todd Collins doesn’t fill in for Cutler and hurl four poor interceptions.

Lots of Carolina’s offseason talks have been around No. 1 draft choice Cam Newton. Newton has potential to be a mediocre NFL quarterback at best, but to most, he has more potential to become the next Alex Smith, Matt Leinart or Vince Young.

Carolina could be a much easier opponent this year if the team’s limited offensive weapons don’t return. DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith are in jeopardy of returning to Carolina. Williams is one of the top backs in free agency, and Smith has flat out said he wishes not to come back to the Panthers organization.

All in all, it might not matter too much who plays where. The Panthers managed to score 17 touchdowns last year and finished dead last in the league in three different offensive categories—points, total yards and passing yards.

Perhaps coaching changes will jump start Carolina. Ron Rivera, who Chicago fans know for his role in the 1985 Super Bowl and his time as the team’s defensive coordinator, will take over as head coach. His emphasis will certainly be on the team’s defense which was far from the Achilles tendon.

This should be a walk in the park for the Bears.

PREDICTION: Bears 27, Panthers 10.

Week 5: Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

Detroit may be the hottest up-and-coming team in the NFC North, yet alone the entire conference.

The Lions' defense has steadily improved over the last few seasons with some key additions in personnel. Detroit took defensive tackle Nick Fairley and speedster wideout Titus Young with its first two draft selections.

Ndamukong Suh, the team’s highest selection last year, was named the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year for his 10-sack campaign. Veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch, Suh and Fairley could make for one of the most feared defensive lines in the NFL.

And who can forget the most feared Lion of them all—Calvin “Megatron” Johnson. Johnson is always a threat to score with his tall 6’5” stature and top speed ability. Corners have a tough time trying to stay with him as well as cover him. Should Matthew Stafford stay healthy for a full year at quarterback, he could certainly make some good things happen for Johnson and the Lions offense.

The key for Chicago to win this game will be individual matchups. If the Bears can make Detroit one-dimensional by eliminating the running threat, then their chances of limiting the passing game go up significantly. Look for Lance Briggs or Brian Urlacher to spy on Jahvid Best and keep him from turning the corner.

This will be the first Monday Night Football game at Detroit in quite some time, not considering the make-up game against Minnesota last year that was rescheduled for a Monday night.

Which division contender will prove to be the victor in front of a national audience?

PREDICTION: Bears 19, Lions 17.

Week 6: Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

No Favre? No problem.

Even when Joe Webb filled in for the future Hall of Famer last December when Chicago and Minnesota met up at TCF Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Golden Gophers, the Bears were able to neutralize the mobile quarterback.

Of course, the offensive weapon of choice for the Purple People Eaters is running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson has racked up nearly 6,000 yards in just four NFL seasons. He has made games miserable for his opponents. The Chicago Bears are all too familiar with how much of a game changer he can be.

With Brett Favre no longer in the organization, the team will probably lean on rookie quarterback Christian Ponder to be the team’s signal-caller. The best way to help a rookie learn the ropes is to let him rely on a running back to move the chains and only throw the ball when it’s an ideal passing situation or on long downs.

If the Bears can load the box and blitz seven or eight defenders effectively, the Vikings will have a tough day at the office holding onto the football for too long.

Another key to victory could be stretching the field with Johnny Knox. The Minnesota safeties aren’t what they used to be, so expect to see deep post patterns and other stretch routes to open up the field.

PREDICTION: Bears 26, Vikings 17.

Week 7: Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished last year with 10 wins and missed the playoffs. A strong finish paired with some great young talent has Tampa thinking that 2011 could be the next step forward.

Most football fans are under the belief that when you make a coaching change, it’s best to couple him with a new QB so the two can grow and develop together (see “Reid and McNabb.”) Head coach Raheem Morris and talented passer Josh Freeman have worked well in harmony thus far.

The league’s youngest head coach last year turned a lot of heads when he called his Bucs the “best team in the NFC…why not—after an impressive start to the season?"

That kind of confidence can be clearly seen in the franchise’s promising QB as well. Freeman has established himself in a position of power on the team. Rumors are that he called the entire team together for player-only practices this summer during the NFL lockout. And because of the respect he has earned, no body he called told him no. That’s quite a sign of respect for a 23-year-old.

This game is scheduled to be played in London at Wembley Stadium. However, without a CBA in place by August 1, the game will be a traditional home game for Tampa Bay.

This could be a trap game for Chicago. After a tough schedule start which seems to soften up a little, this could be a situation where the Bears roll off three or four wins straight and get caught up by a better team they’re not ready for.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers 24, Bears 13.

Week 8: Bye Week

Really not much to say here other than the fact the bye week comes at an ideal time—smack dab in the middle of the campaign.

Most coaches would prefer to get the bye week in between Weeks 8-10. Why the league insists on having some teams rest as early as Week 4 is insanity.

The bye week, this year, proves to be good and bad for the Bears.

One negative for Chicago is not only will it get an ideal bye week, but the entire division does too. Green Bay also rests on Week 8 while Detroit and Minnesota take their vacations Week 9. This in essence doesn't give the Bears an edge over any of their fellow division foes.

The plus side though may outweigh the cons. The bye week allows Chicago to take two weeks to prepare for its Week 9 opponent, who could cause a lot of problems themselves.

Week 9: Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Preparation is the key to success. The Bears should feel blessed they get two weeks to game plan for Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, Asante Samuel, Trent Cole, Ernie Sims and the rest of a star-studded Philly roster.

The Eagles were in the top 10 of the NFL’s leaders last year in points, total yards, passing yards and rushing yards offensively. On the flip side, Philly was middle of the pack in defending each one of those statistical categories. Obviously, the focus when prepping for the Eagles is to try and contain their offense.

Philadelphia averaged better than 35 points a game last year in victory. The only way to win is to play their brand of football by scoring early and often. Every drive has to at least end in a field goal or pinning opponents inside their 20 yard line.

Chicago last year didn’t necessarily stop Philly from scoring a decent amount (Bears 31, Eagles 26), but they did force Vick into tough throws and scrambling with a defender in pursuit. Peppers had a big role in that, so the Eagles might try and block him with a fullback or tight end full time in addition to the left tackle.

Even with extra work and preparation, the Eagles may be able to score more regularly. Perhaps it won’t be a shootout, but it will be physical.

PREDICTION: Eagles 23, Bears 10.

Week 10: Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

Detroit becomes the first division opponent the Bears will see this season a second time. After narrowly escaping with a win twice last year, this young Lions team might finally have enough momentum to steal a W back from Chicago.

The focal point continues to stay on the health of Stafford. If he is healthy and effective, the Lions are bound to at least split the season series.

If it’s the Shaun Hill or Drew Stanton show, the Bears have a legitimate shot at winning the season series.

Logic would say that the Lions are due, and for that reason, the teams split their road games 1-1.

PREDICTION: Lions 25, Bears 17.

Week 11: San Diego Chargers vs. Chicago Bears

San Diego was the best team in the AFC not to make the playoffs last year. As per the team’s usual slow start and huge winning streak to fall just short in the end, this Week 11 matchup would fall right in the middle of the Chargers' red hot run.

This week is also the first week of four consecutive games against the AFC West. Chicago will become well acquainted with the division’s style of football very quickly. Perhaps, the best part of playing the AFC West this year is that the Bears get the two best teams in that division, San Diego and Kansas City, at Soldier Field.

As far as the Bolts are concerned, the recurrent theme of playing great passing teams continues for Chicago. The Chargers featured not only the league’s best offense last year, but the league’s best defense as well. San Diego finished one game above .500 though, meaning that in wins, the team scored a lot, and in losses, they were outscored pretty decently.

The obvious philosophy here for the Bears is to limit San Diego's scoring chances by dominating ball control and time of possession. The X-factor is Jay Cutler, who faced the Chargers regularly when he was a Denver Bronco. Cutler may reacquaint himself with his old division foe rather impressively. Contain Ryan Mathews in the Bolts backfield and Chicago has a good shot to win.

PREDICTION: Bears 30, Chargers 20.

Week 12: Chicago Bears vs. Oakland Raiders

This is by all means a game the Bears should have no problem winning. Oakland has spent the better part of the decade as a team without much hope. The lack of a franchise quarterback and focusing more on speed than talent seems to have cost the Black and Silver faithful multiple seasons.

Perhaps a team on the rise, an 8-8 Raider squad from a year ago features a brand new head coach in Hue Jackson in relief of the troubled Tom Cable. While Jason Campbell may not be the sexiest name under center, he has proven that he can be reliable with his time as a Washington Redskin.

Two big questions loom for Oakland heading into the season. The first concern is if the team can retain Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency or whether he will walk and take big money to play for a contender. The other problem will be trying to repeat a breakout season for former Arkansas product Darren McFadden.

McFadden ran for 1,157 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010, averaging 5.2 yards a touch. Whether he can keep up the success factors vastly into the league’s second-best rushing game a year ago.

The Cover 2 defense helps Chicago against a team with speed receivers not physical receivers. Playing a lot of zone in the secondary could contain the Raiders' passing attack up top.

If Asomugha returns, forget about his half of the field. Should he leave to go elsewhere, Oakland doesn’t feature many defenders who necessarily scare opponents.

PREDICTION: Bears 26, Raiders 12.

Week 13: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears

Kansas City was a pleasant surprise in 2010, having won the AFC West with a dominant ground game. Led by Jamaal Charles’ 1,467 yards, he and Thomas Jones provided a solid one-two punch in the backfield. Even though Jones had 15 more carries than Charles, Charles’ explosive speed allowed him nearly 600 more yards.

Just as impressive was Dwayne Bowe who compiled 1,162 receiving yards and found pay dirt 15 times. It took him some time to get going, but once he did, it was off to the races. Between Weeks 6-12, Bowe had 733 receiving yards and 13 of his 15 scores.

The big problem that the Chiefs spell for opponents is that they can hurt you passing and running the football. This will be a huge week for Charles Tillman, who should be on Bowe for the contest. Playing the run with the Chiefs is like loading the box against an Adrian Peterson or a Maurice Jones-Drew. Regardless of which back is in the formation (maybe both), the Bears must keep an eye on him at all times.

This could be a big week for Devin Hester. If Cutler can find him underneath and let him work the field that may be an ingredient to keeping Chicago in the game.

Either way, the Chiefs may be too versatile and productive to lose to Chicago. There are so many ways the team can hurt you; it’s hard to not imagine them finding one that works.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 33, Bears 24.

Week 14: Chicago Bears vs. Denver Broncos

This has potential to be flexed for NFL Game of the Week. The storyline is this game is so great, it might over shadow the actual football game.

This will be Jay Cutler’s prolific return to Denver after demanding a trade three years ago. There’s no doubt how the folks at mile high will greet their long-time quarterback.

Jay Cutler vs. Kyle Orton/Brady Quinn/Tim Tebow may not exactly be prime time entertainment, but Bears fans have learned as of late just how easy it is to bury Cutler via public scrutiny and embarrassment. The man had a MCL sprain, and Chicago treated him like Cleveland did LeBron James for letting the city down.

Denver had an oddly poor year due to mostly their horrendous defense. The Broncos finished dead last in points allowed and yards allowed defensively. Between the pass and run, Denver especially struggled stopping the run.

Consider the teams in the AFC West though. Kansas City (first), Oakland (second) and San Diego (15th); all finished in the top half of the league in rushing yardage.

This sounds like a huge chance for Forte to run all over the Broncos. It will be interesting to see how much Cutler throws in this game.

Either he will try and show up his old team by passing for 300 yards, or he will play to the defense’s weakness wisely. Either way, it looks like a winnable game for the Bears.

PREDICTION: Bears 24, Broncos 14.

Week 15: Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears

A big break for the Bears that Seattle will be coming to Chicago this year. The Bears will be hosting the worst team to ever make the playoffs. The NFC West division was beyond bad last year, and Seattle on the final night beat the Rams to finish 7-9 and take the West crown.

Many speculate the only reason the team beat the defending champion Saints in the first round of the playoffs was because the game was at Qwest Field in Seattle. Perhaps this is true, but they did end up making it to the Divisional Round before falling flat against Chicago.

The Seahawks will more than likely be making a quarterback change this year too, with veteran Matt Hasselbeck’s contract ending. If Hasselbeck walks for free agency, the next signal-caller in line would be Charlie Whitehurst.

Seattle’s defense is not much more attractive, finishing in the bottom quarter of teams in almost all statistical categories. Earl Thomas and Jordan Babineaux played well, but defensive line pressure was a missing piece to the puzzle.

Under Pete Carroll in year two, expect Seattle to be aggressive in free agency once the lockout is lifted. The target would be a strong defensive tackle and perhaps a linebacker.

Unless the Seahawks suddenly become a serious contender, this should be a home win for Chicago. Cutler should have a nice day passing. Tight end Greg Olsen could put up some huge numbers too against the linebacker matchups the Seahawks present.

PREDICTION: Bears 28, Seahawks 20.

Week 16: Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

If Chicago does manage to win at home the first time around, there’s little doubt the Bears and Packers won’t draw even on Christmas Day.

The only way one team doesn’t come prepared to win is if this game is meaningless to one of the participants by kickoff.

That seems unlikely to happen, even if a division champion or playoff spot has already been determined. The rivalry and national audience will drive the Bears and Packers to play it out no matter what.

Neither team will just let the other one have a win, especially with plenty still up in the air in Week 16.

PREDICTION: Packers 34, Bears 20.

Week 17: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

The final time the Bears and Vikings meet this season may be drastically different than the first time. Unless Minnesota can win with Ponder immediately, this game may be meaningless for both teams.

Chicago could have this game slated as either a must win to help with their playoff standings, or this could be an extra bye week if there’s nothing more they can do to help their cause.

How better to follow up a Christmas game with Green Bay than a New Year’s Day game with Minnesota. Assume this game will count for the Bears, and there will be nothing to play for but the home crowd.

PREDICTION: Bears 21, Vikings 13.

SEASON PREDICTION: 9-7, Wild Card

Thoughts? Comments? Follow Brett Lyons on Twitter @BrettLyons670