NFC West: 7 Factors Which Could Change the Division Title Race

As we finally stare actual NFL Football in the face, it's time to start taking a closer look at the NFC Division race.

As has been the case the last few years, the race is wide open. No team is set to run away from the pack in 2011 any more than they were in 2010.

This isn't a complete breakdown of the NFC West—for that, I'll direct you towards the breakdown I did on The Hard Count podcast with my partner Aaron Nagler a couple of weeks ago.

Instead, I want to take a look at several things which could have a tremendous impact in the coming season.

Groups and people whose success or failure can so impact their teams that it could cause repercussions for the whole NFC West.

Some are players, some are coaches, some are positions—but all may hold the fate of the title in their hands throughout the season.

Jim Harbaugh

The cards are actually against him right now, since having to install a new offense and staff in a lockout shortened off-season is a huge issue.

Regardless, new 49ers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh will be expected to have an immediate impact.

Harbaugh faces challenges not just from putting together a new system, but managing several disparate personalities to reach their potential.

At quarterback he has Alex Smith—a player who has struggled endlessly since his selection as the number one overall pick. At wide receiver is Micheal Crabtree, a mercurial player who isn't the likely starting quarterback's biggest fan. At tight end he has Vernon Davis who finally reached a point where his ability outshone his attitude.

Can Harbaugh get these three players—not to mention Frank Gore, the offensive line and the whole defense—on board with his methods? Will they buy in quickly enough to allow the 49ers to stay competitive in an admittedly weak division?

Harbaugh comes with a successful college football coaching career and was able to turn both the University of San Diego and Stanford programs into winning ventures.

If he can do the same with the talent on the 49ers, he will make this race very close.

Sam Bradford

With the hit-or-miss nature of number one picks in the NFL, the Rams have to be over the moon with Sam Bradford. While he had his rough patches, Bradford certainly exceeded expectations in his first year under center.

While his 18 Tds to 15 INTs ratio isn't world shattering, his 60% completion ratio was solid and his 3,512 passing yards were more than the 2009 trio of Bulger—Boller—Null threw for combined and more than any Rams quarterback had thrown for since 2006. Oh and he did that throwing to an endless rotation of middle of the road wide receivers.

All that and he nearly took them to the playoffs (albeit with a losing record).

To say that Bradford has given this offense a new life would be an understatement. It only helps to add Josh McDaniels who—while a mediocre head coach at best—is a good offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.

There are some questions, though. First, after a year of defenses seeing what he could do, will they now be more effective against him? He faces a tough schedule, with appearances by the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Packers and Steelers.

It won't be a picnic. On top of it, Bradford struggled in the last game against the Seahawks when a win would have put St Louis in the playoffs.

Bradford might need a little lesson in closing from Alec Baldwin.

Super Bowls and Division titles are for closers.

If Bradford can take the next step forward, the Rams will be very hard to beat in the division.

Patrick Peterson and Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie

I nearly just titled this 'the Arizona Secondary' but honestly it will come down to this tandem.

In retrospect the pick of Patrick Peterson wasn't much of a shock, even if they had huge holes elsewhere as well. This is a quarterback driven league and if you want to win, you have to shut down the quarterback and you need good cornerbacks.

Peterson will probably take some time to get up to speed against some tough non-divisional opposition, but he's a very gifted player and I have no doubt the transition will be smooth for the most part.

He'll be paired with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who has played alternately very well and very mediocre. Like most of the Cardinal defense, DRC had a down year and I expect better numbers in 2011.

Of course the front seven is very important as well, but I feel that these two players will be the key to whether or not the Cardinals will be able to keep themselves in games enough to allow whatever quarterback they manage to acquire a chance to win.

They'll need to be on the top of their game against Mike Vick, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and even Tony Romo.

It wouldn't hurt the divisional chances if they could stop Alex Smith or Sam Bradford either.

Alex Smith

Speaking of Alex Smith.... he's going to have to do more than hand off to Frank Gore if the Niners want to compete even in the NFC West.

Smith has struggled to reach his potential since he was drafted into the league. Part of that has been a rotating cast of coaches and coordinators; enough to make anyone's head spin and swim.

Part of it is also on him and if Smith is ever going to make a go of it as a 49er, this is it.

Jim Harbaugh did a lot of great work with both Andrew Luck and before him, Josh Johnson at the University of San Diego. It's not automatic, Harbaugh hasn't proven anything at the Pro level yet.

Then again Jon Gruden has two less young quarterbacks he's developed and he's lauded as a guru so I think Harbaugh has a good shot.

As for Smith, he needs to focus on being more accurate and more calm in the pocket. The shorter timing routes we expect to see out of the West Coast(ish) offense will help with that. This offense is largely based on timing though and it could be tough to get that down even with the 'lock-out' camps Smith has been running.

Camps wide receiver Michael Crabtree hasn't been attending for the most part. He's not Smith's biggest fan, not that a wide receiver and a quarterback have to be to succeed.

Still, Smith has shown very good leadership this off-season (despite not officially even being a Niner) and one hopes he'll be able to show some more when it comes to Crabtree.

If San Francisco has any shot at a division title, Alex Smith has to take a huge step forward.

Charlie Whitehurst

Pete Carroll liked Charlie Whitehurst enough to make a significant trade to acquire him yet after one year he still has no idea if it was worth it and neither do we.

It's not that Whitehurst has been bad when he's stepped into the quarterback spot. He just hasn't been light's out. So instead of cruising into the 2011 secure in the knowledge of what their starting quarterback can do, the Seahawks are left wondering if they'll be in the 'Suck for Luck' race. Or the 'Gnarley for Barkley' or 'Pandering for Landry'. Choose your poison.

Whatever it is, if Whitehurst can't hack it the Seahawks will not only fall way short in their bid to win the division again but might be set back several years developing a new quarterback.

It's entirely possible that the Seahawks get a free agent or trade for a Kolb or Orton. However they don't have a ton of ammo for either of those trades and the free agent market is filled with a lot of place holders, not long term answers.

Like the rest of the NFC West, the Seahawks face a tough schedule filled with difficult defenses and potent offenses. Whitehurst—or really, any quarterback thrown into the wolf's den—will have to be very good to overcome the defenses and keep up with those offenses.

If he cannot, the Seahawks will quickly find themselves in a lot of trouble.

The NFC Running Backs

The whole NFC West is dealing with shaky quarterback issues and all of them face some tough defenses. Most of the division is also have some questionable defenses as well.

When your quarterback is a question mark, when your defense sometimes let you down, you want to run the ball. If you do it effectively you can milk the clock, get your defense a breather, keep a potent offense off the field and change the feeling of a game by imposing your will on the opposition.

It will be interesting to see how each of the backfield units fare this season and whether they succeed or fail could make a huge difference in who wins the division.

Steven Jackson and Frank Gore are clearly the most reliable, though you would be right to point out that I'm damning them with faint praise a little bit. They also have a tendency to get banged up and the depth behind them is thin in one case and nonexistent in the other.

Both of them need to find the end zone a little more and it would be great if they could get a bit better yards per carry (Gore was a 7.2 which is OK, Jackson was a 3.8 which is barely tolerable) but some of that will depend on their respective offensive lines (San Fran has a huge problem at center) and the rest of the offense.

More intriguing—and messy—are the situations in Arizona and Seattle.

I like what I have seen of Ryan Matthews in college and running back is normally one of the easier positions to get up to speed with in the NFL as a rookie. That said, the longer the lockout goes, the more difficult it is for him to take the role even from such underwhelming fellas as Chris Wells and Tim Hightower. Also, the Cardinal offensive line is very inconsistent. Topping it off, unless a real quarterback threat arrives—and Kolb doesn't count yet—the backfield will face some pretty significantly stacked boxes.

Ditto with the group in Seattle. Marshawn Lynch had a tremendous run at the end of the season but other than that was pretty run of the mill. I like Justin Forsett and Leon Washington but neither is a huge threat and Washington might not even be with the team to start the year. Seattle's offensive line has issues as well, even though they are trying to fix it.

The team which gets their ground game going most effectively and consistently has a leg up in the division race. Who will it be? If Gore/Jackson stay healthy they'd be my bet.

The Schedule

It's not an easy one for anybody. each team gets to face the NFC East and while nobody expects much from the Redskins (sorry Fans!), the Giants, Eagles and even the Cowboys will be tough to face this year.

Along with that there are tough games against the Packers, Ravens, Steelers, while Tampa Bay and Detroit aren't the pushovers they used to be.

If the Cardinals, 49ers, Rams or Seahawks can steal a game here or there—admittedly a rough task—it will give them a huge leg up in the overall division race.

They still need to do well in their divisional matchups of course and that's critical as well. There's a good chance that teams might split those games though and it will be of tremendous importance to try and win some of the other games on the dockett.

Can any of these teams steal a win? It's hard to fathom, but then again how many were picking the Seahawks over the Saints in the playoffs?

The team that can win one extra, unexpected game more than it's divisional comrades is going to look very, very good in the race.

What About the Rest?

Of course, the preceding pages are just a few of the many factors in the division race and further, some of you will think them small while feeling I missed a critical person, place or thing you feel of vital importance.

So fill the comments with some thoughts on what will be the biggest factor in the NFC West.

Is it Pete Carroll? The Arizona QB Black Hole? The Seahawks' defense? A lack of San Francisco wide receiver depth?

Let's hear your thoughts down below.