2011 NFL Draft Results: Odds Each Team's 1st-Round Pick Starts in Year 1

James Brown@@chasingballgameSenior Analyst IMay 1, 2011

2011 NFL Draft Results: Odds Each Team's 1st-Round Pick Starts in Year 1

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    The 2011 NFL draft is over with, and if the lockout is ever resolved, teams will begin to get a look at their draft picks on the field later this year.

    Draft picks, especially in the first round, always make the team, but that does not mean they will be starters. Depending on the team and its need at a given position, a player can sit on the sidelines for years as he learns the system and undergoes grooming to be a starter in the NFL.

    Here is a look at all of the 32 teams in the NFL, the top player each drafted, and the odds that player starts in his rookie season.

Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton

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    The Carolina Panthers needed a quarterback with their first pick, and they got one in Cam Newton. Newton is raw and will have a huge learning curve as he heads into camp.

    The Panthers have other young quarterbacks on the team that could start, including Jimmy Clausen, but this is now Newton’s team. The Panthers can run the ball to protect Newton, but unless the season is canceled, Newton will be under center when the 2011 campaign kicks off.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Denver Broncos: Von Miller

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    The Denver Broncos set out to fix their defense in the first round, and they took a step in the right direction when they drafted Von Miller.

    Miller is an intelligent football player that automatically upgrades the defense. He is bit of an undersized pass rusher, but he's still a lock to start on Day One.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus

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    The Buffalo Bills were soft up front last year, as they had the league’s worst rushing defense. Dareus will give them size up front, and he has the flexibility to play more than one position.

    The Bills cannot afford to keep this big man on the bench.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green

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    The Bengals selected wide receiver A.J. Green with the fourth overall pick, and it could not have come at a better time.

    Terrell Owens is likely gone and Chad Ochocinco could follow him, as the Bengals will go young. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden will bring a West Coast offense that Green will fit into.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson

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    The Cardinals selected Patrick Peterson with their first pick in the 2011 NFL draft. Many experts picked Peterson as the best player in the draft, though.

    The Cardinals were not in need of a cornerback, but they wanted the best player on the board. Peterson could start right away for a lesser team, but the Cardinals have decent corners already.

    Peterson could contribute on special teams or in the secondary, which gives him a better chance to start.

    Odds To Start: 95%

Atlanta Falcons: Julio Jones

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    The Atlanta Falcons traded a bundle of picks to move up in the draft and nab wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones is an elite college football player and fits into the Falcons system and long term plans.

    With the critics bashing the Falcons for giving up so much, Jones has to start to prove that they were right.

    Odds To Start: 100%

San Francisco 49ers: Aldon Smith

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    The 49ers drafted Aldon Smith and he will help out, but his starting status is dependent on free agency. Manny Lawson and Travis LaBoy are free agents, and if they decide to stay with the team this position could be deep and give Smith more time to groom before jumping into a starting role.

    Smith has the talent to start, but the odds are better that he will take some time.

    Odds To Start: 65%

Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker

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    The Titans stunned the football world when they made Jake Locker the No. 8 overall pick in the 2011 draft. Locker is a smart football player and could be called upon to start right away, but there is a small chance Vince Young could still play a factor.

    Tennessee coach Mike Munchak recently said there is "no chance" Young will be back with his Titans in 2011, but as long as he is still on the team Young will likely start.

    The odds will be somewhat high since they took Locker so early in the draft, but only time will tell.

    Odds To Start: 90%

Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith

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    The Cowboys fixed a glaring problem when they selected Tyron Smith with their first overall pick. Smith is athletic and flexible, making him a must start on the front line.

    Protection was a major problem for the Cowboys, so if they want to protect Tony Romo, Smith has to start.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Jacksonville Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert

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    The Jaguars aggressively went after Blaine Gabbert. Once Gabbert slipped by the first few picks, the Jaguars worked the phones and moved up via trade.

    Gabbert will be the signal caller of the future for the Jaguars, but as of now, this is still David Garrad’s team. Gabbert will take time to learn and grown behind Garrard and will learn this year and start down the road.

    Odds To Start: 5%

Houston Texans: J.J. Watt

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    Like the Denver Broncos, the Texans were horrible on defense last year. Watt will allow the Texans to be flexible with Mario Williams and try different formations. Watt is a run-stopper and will start on the front line when the season starts.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Minnesota Vikings: Christian Ponder

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    The Minnesota Vikings needed a quarterback, but it was surprising when the Vikings grabbed Ponder with their first pick overall. Ponder is a very smart football player that could learn the system in a hurry, but don’t look for him to start.

    The Vikings still have Joe Webb, and the rumor mill is still putting Donovan McNabb in a Vikings uniform.

    Odds To Start: 10%

Detroit Lions: Nick Fairley

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    If Nick Fairley pans out, the Detroit Lions could have the steal of the draft with this first-round selection. Ndamukong Suh will force Fairley to play hard on very down. The Lions already have a slew of talent on the front line and the acquisition of Fairley will only make them stronger.

    Fairley will pay out the gate in many different packages as the Lions may have the deadliest front line in the game.

    Odds To Start 99%

St. Louis Rams: Robert Quinn

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    The Rams drafted the best player on the board and could not pass up on Robert Quinn. The Rams are deep and talented on the front line and this will allow Quinn some time to grow in this system.

    This growth process could give Quinn the time he needs to be one of the best.

    Odds To Start: 30%

Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey

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    The Dolphins needed serious help on the front line, as Jake Long is the only mainstay. Pouncey is ready to make an impact in his first year and has the flexibility to play more than one position.

    Pouncey will get the starting nod in game one and will be another building block on the front line for the Dolphins.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Washington Redskins: Ryan Kerrigan

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    The Redskins drafted Ryan Kerrigan after trading back in the first round. Kerrigan was drafted mainly based on the fact that he has a winning attitude, something that is needed in Washington. What he lacks in size he makes up for with instinct.

    He may not start but Jim Haslett will find a place for him on defense.

    Odds To Start: 70%

New England Patriots: Nate Solder

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    The Patriots used their first round pick to grab Nate Solder and improve their protection up front. Solder’s starting status will depend on how well he adjusts to switching to right tackle of if the Patriots lose Matt Light to free agency.

    The pick may have given the Pats leverage in dealing with Light and if he stays, Solder will take some time to crack the starting lineup.

    Odds To Start: 80%

San Diego Chargers: Corey Liuget

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    The Chargers got their man in the first round when they drafted Corey Liuget. They needed help up front as they were getting little production from their current front line.

    This opens the door for Liuget to get the starting spot and make an impact in the first game of the season.

    Odds To Start: 100%

New York Giants: Prince Amukamara

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    The Giants used their first overall pick to draft Amukamara, as they went with the best player available approach.

    The Giants love what he has to offer as a shutdown cornerback and will now have some versatility in the secondary that they have been lacking. The Giants have enough depth to allow Amukamara to grow slowly in the system, but it’s a shame to keep that much talent on the bench.

    Odds To Start: 85%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn

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    The Buccaneers filled a very big void by drafting Adrian Clayborn with the first pick overall. The Bucs were 30th in the league in sacks a year ago, and Clayborn will look too bring pressure up front.

    The Bucs cannot afford to keep Clayborn on the bench and he will start in the first game of the season.

    Odds to Start: 100%

Cleveland Browns: Phil Taylor

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    The Browns were very busy in the first round of the draft as they traded down and gained a bunch of draft picks, then back up to make this pick.

    The Browns are switching from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3 and will plug Taylor in right away. His size alone makes him an automatic starter on a team that was incredibly weak up front.

    Odds to Start: 100%

Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo

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    Offensive tackle was the top need for the Indianapolis Colts, and they hit a home run when they drafted Castonzo. He is a very mature and intelligent player that can start right away. The Colts have aging players and several free agents that could determine if Castonzo gets the start in the first game of the season.

    With the way the front line played a year ago, Castonzo should be in sooner than later.

    Odds to Start: 95%

Philadelphia Eagles: Danny Watkins

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    The Eagles need some help up front and they got it when the drafted Danny Watkins. Watkins can play either tackle spot and that will give the Eagles options to get him into the starting lineup.

    At age 26, Watkins is an older rookie and if the Eagles want to get the most out of him, they will start him now.

    Odds To Start: 90%

New Orleans Saints: Cameron Jordan

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    The Saints needed help on the defensive line and they made it a priority when they selected Cameron Jordan with their first pick overall. Jordan will give the Saints an infusion of youth on the front line and a deadly pass rusher that will harass the opposing teams signal caller.

    Jordan is another first-round lock to get the starting job from Day One.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Seattle Seahawks, James Carpenter

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    The Seahawks did have a strong need on the offensive line and they hope that they filled that hole with James Carpenter. Coach Tom Cable will get the best out of Carpenter, but he still needs some fine tuning to be an every-down starter.

    Free agency may ultimately decide when he starts, but it will take some time for him to crack the starting lineup.

    Odds To Start: 45%

Kansas City Chiefs: Jonathan Baldwin

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    Although defense may have been more of a pressing issue, the Chiefs could not pass on Baldwin. Baldwin gives the Chiefs another big receiver that should thrive in a West Coast offense that relies on crossing routes.

    Baldwin will fit right in and start on Day One.

    Odds To Start: 100%

Baltimore Ravens: Jimmy Smith

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    The Ravens needed a cornerback with a nasty attitude that would fit the Ravens mold, and that is what they drafted in Jimmy Smith.

    The Ravens have a slew of free agents in the secondary that could fly the coop. Smith has some red flags, but once those issues are corralled he will work his way into the starting lineup.

    Odds to start: 55%

New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram

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    The Saints were so high on Mark Ingram that they traded up to make sure that he would be available. Ingram gives the Saints a running back that can power between the tackles.

    The pick turned out to be a PR nightmare, though, as running back Reggie Bush made his feelings known about the pick. The Saints have plenty of backs in the system and they will slowly move Ingram into the process.

    Odds to Start: 15%

Chicago Bears: Gabe Carimi

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    The Bears needed protection up front and therefore Gabe Carimi was a much needed pick. Jay Cutler spent most of the year on his back and by picking Carimi, the Bears hope to have answered some of their protection problems.

    Carimi may have to adjust to a new position, but the line is so bad he should start on Day One.

    Odds To Start: 88%

New York Jets: Muhammad Wilkerson

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    The Jets already had an incredible defense, but it got better with the pick of Muhammad Wilkerson. This is the kind of guy that Rex Ryan loves to have on his defense.

    Wilkerson is a big body that is quick enough to put some pressure on the QB and stop the run. Wilkerson is good enough to start, but it could depend on free agency and how loyal the Jets are to their veterans.

    Odds To Start 65%

Pittsburgh Steelers: Cameron Heyward

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    The Steelers had needs in other areas like the offensive line and defensive back, but Heyward is still a quality pick.

    The Steelers have an impressive defensive line, but they are getting up in age, so injuries are a concern. Heyward will have time to grow under the guidance of the veterans and could be a mainstay on this team for a long time to come.

    Odds To Start: 40%

Green Bay Packers: Derek Sherrod

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    The Packers needed help up font on the offensive line and got it by drafting Derek Sherrod.

    Sherrod will get some time at left tackle but will be expecting to do his team on the second team behind Chad Clifton. This is a great pick by the Packers, and he will have some time to develop.

    Odds To Start: 15%


    Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com.