Dolphins-Jets, Cowboys-Texans, Bears-Packers Lead NFL Rivalry Week

A Dolfan Diaries entry.

College football, college basketball, and even the NBA likes to promote "rivalry week" when the biggest rivals, either conference or geographical, face one another the same week.

The NFL has never really promoted something like this, although with the new mandate that the last week of the season must be a divisional game, 

But other than the final week of the season, where the games still might not mean very much to other teams, this would be the ideal week to promote as "NFL Rivalry Week."

Just look at the two Nationally Televised prime time games. Both games are between two long time divisional (and in the case of Bears-Packers, geographical) rivalries. Dolphins-Jets is for the early position of first place in what looks to be a tough AFC East. Right now the Dolphins have the AFC East conch, but with a win on Sunday the Jets would take over first place with two early division victories against the two teams they will be competing with for both a playoff spot and a division title.

Then with Bears-Packers, you have the chic NFC Super Bowl representative pick in the Packers going against a Bears team that so far has surprised me, among other people. I actually picked that team to go 3-13 this year, with a win Monday Night they will have already matched the wins total I predicted for them. More importantly, if the Bears defeat the Pack at home, they will have sole possession of first place in the NFC North and could prove on a national stage to the rest of the country that they should be in the discussion for the NFC North and possibly the Super Bowl as well.

Then on the flip side you have a geographical rivalry that contains two teams that aren't within the same conference, let alone division, but can still prove to be one of the most important games of the week: Cowboys @ Texans.

A win for the Cowboys and they pretty much save their season by winning on the road against an excellent team and proof that they still rule the state of Texas.

A loss and its the end of the Wade Phillips era, and a tougher road ahead for the Cowboys to get back to the playoffs.

Meanwhile a win for the Texans and they will have a 3-0 start with two of those wins coming against teams that finished a combined 25-7 last season to go along with an overtime win on the road against a team that looks to be a playoff team this year in a normally hostile road environment, plus they would grab the throne as the kings of Texas for this year.

A loss for the Texans might not mean as much, but it will hurt some egos in the Texans locker room for sure.

There are other rivalry games that I'll highlight as I make my week 3 picks.

(HOME TEAM in CAPS.)

NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee

Both teams are facing a gut-check game coming off of two humbling losses. For the Titans they saw Vince Young play the worst game of his career (a week after his best game) then get benched by Jeff Fischer, which was pretty dumb imo since Vince has had a long history of stinking up the joint in quarters 1-3 only to pull a miracle out of his rear end in the fourth quarter. The Titans defense kept the game close enough to do just that, and Fischer just seems to keep forgetting that VINCE YOUNG JUST WINS FOOTBALL GAMES!

The Giants are coming off a humongous disaster against the Colts. Antrel Rolle, who only signed with the Giants about 15 minutes ago, is already criticizing Coach Coughlin, same old crap in New York, Coughlin takes his shots, the question comes up over if he's on the hot seat, a question that will continue to come up all season and might be magnified even more with Bill Parcells stepping down with the Dolphins earlier this year (over/under on Parcells back to the Giants speculation: week 10.) Except this is every Giants season it seems, I honestly don't want to hear another word about Coughlin, a guy who only won a Super Bowl three years ago with almost the same team and was probably a Plaxico Burress self-inflicted gunshot wound away from repeating two years ago, being on the hot seat. I say this is his last year, but only of his own volition, only because HE will say "forget this." 

As for this week? I'm going with the venue pick.

Giants 17 Titans 10.

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo

The Bills will attempt to fix their offensive woes by bringing back Ryan Fitzpatrick to start instead of Trent Edwards. No this doesn't fix their main problems, lack of offensive line, lack of defensive line, having three running backs when two will do, not having another good receiver to line up across from Lee Evans, I could name all of the problems that the Buffalo Bills have but that would take up way too much time, so I'll just sum it up in one sentence: 

Their line against the New England Patriots, a pissed off Pats team playing at home after an embarrassing loss, is way too low. I would've put this as my lock of the week, but considering that I'm 0-2 when it comes to my lock of the week, I saved another game for that.

Patriots 38 Bills 7

BALTIMORE (-10.5) over Cleveland

This fits two things: first off its a rivalry game, except the rivalry means more to Cleveland than it does to Baltimore. Using that logic since we all know that if it means a lot to Cleveland its going to go against them, I'm going with Baltimore.

Secondly much like Buffalo at New England, its a pissed off good team at home taking on a bad team. Yes I'm sticking with Baltimore.

Ravens 31 Browns 10.

TAMPA BAY (+2.5) over Pittsburgh

I picked the Buccaneers to finish 2-14. Right now they're 2-0. Vegas seemed to give them enough respect to make this game a virtual pick em at home. Now I should note that in the original handwritten predictions, I had the Panthers finishing 2-14 and the Bucs finishing 7-9. But because the Bucs just looked terrible in pre-season while the Panthers were at least returning some semblance of a decent team, I flip flopped them. I'd like a mulligan on this one please, especially since this is going to be a defensive battle, and I'm sure Josh Freeman can get off at least one play to win the game. Plus its a Steelers game, meaning at least one team will score 11 points.

Bucs 11 Steelers 7.

Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA

See, if I did these predictions based off of my NFL Season Preview, this would be the NFC South vs. AFC North game I'd predict as a close home victory for the NFC South team and not Bucs-Steelers. But Carolina is just awful. Twice they've let me down this season, and the fact that we could see Claussen aka Rick Mirer Jr. Playing some meaningful snaps tells me to take the striped cats over the solid ones.

Bengals 24 Panthers 13.

Atlanta (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

I actually think this line is too high. The Saints showed me Monday Night that there is still a Super Bowl hangover around them. Then there's the fact that they're playing on a short week, against a hungry division rival (see, another reason to call this week rivalry week) who will be up there with them contending for the NFC South with a smothering defense that has only allowed 22 points and is second in point differential despite being 1-1 with their loss coming on the road in OT in one of the toughest places to play against a tough defense. The Falcons will win this game in a surprisingly easy fashion and provide the wake up call that the Saints need to move forward this season.

Falcons 35 Saints 24.

KANSAS CITY (+3) over San Francisco

The spread should be the other way around. The Chiefs beat a good but messed up Chargers team at home then beat the Browns, yet their still three point underdogs at home against a 49ers team that got killed on the road in Seattle and then blew numerous chances against a Saints team that was telling them "here I insist take the win" when they still have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL? I can't see that but I don't work in Vegas. 

Chiefs 14 49ers 9.

Detroit (+11) over MINNESOTA

I'm 2-0 against the spread when I pick the Lions, which I've done both weeks. Brett Favre is going to make it 3-0.

Lions 21 Vikings 14.

HOUSTON (-3) over Dallas

On the escalator in the mall of football, where the top floor represents the upper echelon, the first floor represents the middle of the pack, and the basement is reserved for the Bills, Rams, Raiders, and Browns, we see the Cowboys and Texans meet each other as the Texans are on their way up, and the Cowboys are on their way down. This game will be chock full of emotions from both teams for reasons I highlighted earlier. Houston right now looks to be the NFL's hungriest team, and with their upcoming schedule it would not come as a surprise to me if they're 6-0 and the last undefeated team left in the National Football League going into their Week Eight Monday Night showdown with Indianapolis. (I mean look at their upcoming schedule: at Oakland, followed by home games against the Giants and the Chiefs, then a bye week. To be 6-0 shouldn't just be expected, but anything less would be a disappointment at this point.) 

The Cowboys though look like they're going to be 0-3 going into their bye week, followed by a couple of winnable games against the Giants and Titans, but their schedule still looks tough.

In a must win for both teams, I'm going with the hotter team, the better team, the home team, the Texans.

Texans 36 Cowboys 16.

Washington (-3.5) over ST. LOUIS

The Rams may be at home but the line is too low. Should be at least six.

Redskins 27 Rams 10.

Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

Game will only be televised in Philadelphia of course. That's the only city with any interest in this game. The QB battle between Vick and Kolb is more intriguing than this game. In Jacksonville they won't even care about this game (oh you mean like every other Jaguars game?)

Eagles 22 Jaguars 16.

DENVER (+5.5) over Indianapolis

Denver always plays well at home early in the season. They always play the Colts well regardless of the venue. They're not quite good enough to be a threat, but not bad enough to give up five and a half points at home, even to Peyton and the Colts. It will be closer than you think.

Colts 23 Broncos 20.

SEATTLE (+5.5) over San Diego

The Seahawks have the look of a team that will be 7-1 at home, 2-6 on the road. By the way, that's a 9-7 record, which might be good enough to take the putrid NFC West. I see San Diego with the same formula as the Seahawks, but unfortunately the Chiefs already have one win against them plus an easier schedule moving forward, meaning 9-7 might not win the AFC West if Kansas City can get to 10-6 (very possible.)

Seahawks 32 Chargers 24.

Oakland (+4.5) over ARIZONA

Next week thousands of calls will be made from the state of Arizona to vote for Margaret Cho, The Situation, Bristol Palin, Jennifer Grey, Florence Henderson, hell, everyone except Kurt Warner so that he may be eliminated first and come back to the Cardinals. Meanwhile Seahawks and 49ers fans (and players) will be voting en masse for Warner hoping that he advances to the finals. This is what happens when you lose at home to the Raiders like the Cardinals will do this week.

Raiders 27 Cardinals 6.

CHICAGO (+3) over Green Bay

I think this is just as crazy as you do, remember, I thought the Bears would be 3-13! But this Bears team really seemed to come together after the infamous Calvin Johnson non-TD that should have been a TD.

Think about it, this team was ragged on all off-season. They heard the shots fired at Jay Cutler, how he's all arm and no brain. Heard the shots fired at the defense that they're too old, heard the shots fired at Lovie Smith about how he should have been let go last year for Mike Shannahan, about how Mike Martz only plays to win on his terms and how he's been a disaster everywhere he's gone since he was with the Rams, plus the fact that nobody, not even the most diehard Bears fans, expected anything of this team.

Then after the Lions game, something seemed to click. They heard how they barely beat the Lions, how they shouldn't have even won the game, that they were lucky, they still weren't good enough to compete with the Vikings or Packers or anyone at the top of the NFC.

So they went to Dallas and outright destroyed the Cowboys. But no one is talking about what was a great performance on the road by this Bears team, oh no, instead its "What's wrong with the Cowboys? Can they right the ship? Why are they performing so bad?" But what must really chafe with the Bears and their organization is this question: "How could they lose to the Bears at home?" 

Vegas respects the Bears. Most people would look at that spread, Green Bay by three, and think its too low, that the Packers will destroy the Bears.

I'm not most people, I know this rivalry. When these two play, you throw the records out. Its produced some weird moments. Ever think you'd see Rex Grossman out-perform Brett Favre? It happened here.

So here you have a typical division rivalry game, most storied and longest rivalry in the NFL, Monday Night, in Chicago, both teams at 2-0. One team gets plenty of well-deserved respect, the other has gotten not one drop of it despite being 2-0. There's enough emotion here, enough drama that whomever scheduled this Monday Night game and looked like an idiot in April looks like a pure genius right now. And I hope that come Tuesday morning, I look just as smart by picking the Bears.

Bears 17 Packers 14 (OT)

Miami Dolphins game of the week.

MIAMI (-2) over New York Jets

Same circumstances as the Monday Night game come into play on Sunday. All off-season and into training camp all you heard about was how great the Jets were how they were fifteen minutes away from the Super Bowl and how they would dominate thanks to their off-season acquisitions. 

Meanwhile from the Dolphins you saw that they did make two more impactful free agent acquisitions in Dansby (already paying off) and Marshall (would pay off if they ever take the training wheels off of Henne's bike or put in Pennington) yet all you heard outside of that is trouble.

-Not offering Jason Taylor a contract, allowing him to sign with the Jets.

-GM Jeff Ireland asking Dez Bryant about his mother's involvement in the World's Oldest profession.

-Being overshadowed in a city they've owned for 45 years by the basketball team signing a couple of iffy free agents from Cleveland and Toronto.

-Bill Parcells stepping down, then expressing that he was "dissappointed" by the play of QB Chad Henne.

Then there's the difference in media coverage. The Jets are 1-1. Their first game, a loss to open up their new stadium, was a disaster that showed how undisciplined the team was. They were criticized for that, along with the sexual harassment that probably wasn't really harassment of the Mexican reporter that goes into the locker room dressed like a harlot and who's shtick in covering sports is to measure the players' biceps. It was bad, and a complete overreaction by the media and Jets fans.

An overreaction that swung the opposite way after beating the Patriots. After that everyone turned it into "well the Ravens are a good team as are the Patriots."

Now look at the Dolphins: the offense has only scored two touchdowns in two games, both in early drives. After their week one win it was dismissed as "well it was against Buffalo" which is true. But after their second win, which nobody, not even yours truly expected, the focus was on "oh what's wrong with the Vikings? Does Brett need more help? What's going on in Minnesota? Should Brett have actually gone to training camp to practice?" Instead of "wow take a look at that Dolphins defense!"

Then there's this food for thought: the prevailing feeling on the Jets is that since they beat the Pats at home they are a great team, and the Ravens are a great team too. But lets try it this way: The Jets lost to the Ravens, who lost to a Bengals team that got soundly defeated by the Patriots. This tells me first off that the AFC East might be better than the AFC North, and secondly, that overall, the Jets, Pats, Bengals, and Ravens aren't as good as we thought.

Where as with the Dolphins, we don't know. But maybe that's by design. After all, they are 2-0, yet have played on the road with a very vanilla offense and have let their defense do most of the work.

Does that change this week? It better, and it will. Too many distractions for the Jets, a hostile night time Joe Robbie Stadium (the name I'll always refer the stadium to, he built it with his own money unlike most owners who fleece tax payers by holding cities hostage to get their stadium) game, and a Dolphins team feeling disrespected and ready to really unleash what they have in store for the league.

Dolphins 31 Jets 2-er um

I forgot my lock of the week, of which I'm 0-2 in picking. Needless to say, I don't have much confidence in it, only we're out of games for this week. So, um

LOCK OF THE WEEK:

New York Jets (+2) over MIAMI

I know this is a low line to make it a lock. But the New York Football Jets are the greatest team in the NFL. Hell they should just cancel the season and hand the Lombardi trophy right to Rex and the Boys. J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS!

Jets 45 Dolphins 0

LAST WEEK: 11-5 (9-6-1 vs. Spread)

Overall: 17-15 (15-16-1 vs. Spread)

Follow Thomas Galicia on twitter, @thomasgalicia. Check out his archive as well. He'll be back come Monday Morning with Dolfan Diaries: Phins vs. Jets.