Monday Morning Digest: Can Any of These No-Name QBs Take Down Tom Brady?
The Patriots host the Jaguars in the AFC Championship and the Eagles host the Vikings in the NFC Championship on Sunday.
What, you need more of a preview than that? Well, good thing Digest is here to...
• Explain how to beat the Patriots (information the Titans will receive a little too late).
• Reveal why the wild Jaguars upset of the Steelers gave you a case of deja vu.
• Reveal why the wild finish of the Vikings-Saints game gave you even more deja vu.
• Provide a reason or two to believe in the Nick Foles-led Eagles for a second consecutive week.
• Highlight the few highs and many lows from this week's ride on the coaching carousel.
And much, much more!
But first, let's meet the championship week quarterbacks.
Seriously? Those are the championship week quarterbacks?
Unlikely QBs Pose a Surprising New Challenge for the Patriots
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Remember when you were getting sick of annual Brady vs. Manning playoff matchups?
Well, be careful what you wish for.
Peyton Manning's an insurance pitchman now. Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees were knocked out of the playoffs this weekend. Instead of preparing for playoff games, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton are preparing to meet new coordinators.
Tom Brady has outlived his enemies. That's why his road to a sixth championship started with Marcus Mariota on Saturday, continues with Blake Bortles next Sunday and with another win would end with either Case Keenum or Nick Foles in the Super Bowl.
Build a time machine, travel back to July, explain to your past self that Bortles, Foles and Keenum would join Brady in the conference championship games, and your past self would ask many questions, like:
• What happened to Carson Wentz and Sam Bradford? ("Injuries," you tell you.)
• Did the lightbulb go on for Bortles? ("Eh...")
• Are you from some parallel universe? ("It sure feels that way some mornings.") And finally...
• Is there any chance that any of these quarterbacks can lead a playoff victory over Brady's Patriots?
Digest will try to answer that final question over the next several segments. For now, a little straight talk about next week's Unlikely Championship Quarterback Trio:
Case Keenum is the best quarterback of the trio, by far. Keenum's strengths include accuracy on short-to-mid-range passes, surprising pocket presence and mobility, and excellent decision-making when he's not pressured. Keenum is the only member of the trio who can be counted on to do "quality quarterback" stuff, like lead a two-minute drill when trailing.
Blake Bortles is the most talented quarterback of the trio. Bortles' mobility caused problems for both the Steelers and Bills: If he sees man coverage, he'll run as soon as defenders turn their backs on him. Bortles also has a very good arm, and while he sometimes just heaves passes into double coverage, his receivers retrieve just enough of those heaves to make him dangerous.
Nick Foles is the least likely of the trio to lose a game with mistakes. Bortles makes Favre-on-the-playground bloopers. Keenum's ambitions are sometimes bigger than his arm. Foles knows his game-manager role and his limitations and on Saturday played within them. Which means, of course, he's the least likely of the trio to win a game with a big throw.
The Vikings have the best backup quarterback situation of any team, including the Patriots. Both Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater are available if Keenum goes down. Bortles is backed up by Chad Henne, who is best known for failing to win the job in training camp from Blake Bortles. Foles' backup is a nice fellow named Nate Sudfeld. A 13-episode Netflix series dramatizing what happened to Brady's backups is currently in production.
It all comes down to the supporting casts. The Vikings and Jaguars have proved once again that it's possible to succeed in the NFL without superior quarterbacking if you build a great roster at other positions. (The Eagles got here thanks to Wentz.) Remember that the next time some coach or general manager justifies a never-ending rebuilding phase by claiming that nothing can be done until the perfect Brady clone comes along.
Jeff Fisher is just the worst. Both Foles and Keenum were on the bench for Fisher's hapless Rams in recent years, of course. Fisher will resurface at some point this week to take credit for "developing" Keenum and Foles (and Jared Goff) on a radio interview or something. Just remember when he does that, he is out of the NFL now and can't hurt anyone anymore.
The Lombardi Trophy is not Brady's for the taking just yet. The Patriots are favorites to win the Super Bowl, just as they always are. But all three remaining defenses are built to give him trouble—their defensive lines are vicious, their secondaries deep—and all three remaining offensive lines and running games can be a handful for the Patriots defense.
None of these quarterbacks stands a chance in a shootout with Brady, but all of their teams are capable of avoiding one. Which is fine. We've seen what usually happens in Brady vs. Manning, Roethlisberger, Ryan, etc. The remaining challengers will be forced to try something different.
Maybe it will work.
Final Four Preview: New England Patriots
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How they got here
The Patriots did to the Titans what they always do to second-tier wannabes who stagger into Foxborough after the Wild Card Round. They mixed Tom Brady slice-'n'-dice short passing, sound defensive execution, perfect game-planning and a dash of officiating home brew and served up a 35-14 rout.
Best thing you can say about the Titans is that the game was actually close at the end of the first quarter. But the Patriots are the all-time NFL leaders in postseason games described as "actually close at the end of the first quarter."
How to beat the Patriots
There is only one method with any historic track record of success: pressure Brady with just four defenders. No jailhouse blitzing. No three-man rushes with eight defenders getting picked apart in zones. Four pass-rushers operating at peak performance.
Once Brady is uncomfortable in the pocket, do enough on offense to keep the game close. The New England defense is vulnerable against balanced attacks but deadly when the Patriots are leading and Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia can unleash their full complement of coverages and blitzes.
Finally, don't let the Patriots into your head. The Titans committed false starts (beside the dubious fourth-down neutral zone infraction), tried to bounce a run outside on 4th-and-1 before halftime, got away from the running game before they needed to and generally lapsed into Foxborough panic mode the moment the game started slipping away from them.
Remember that while the Patriots may squabble like Greek gods, they are still mortals. Even Brady.
Can the Jaguars pull it off?
The Jaguars can harass Brady without blitzing, giving them a better shot at a seismic upset than the poor Titans had.
On the other hand, the Jaguars defense can be reckless to the point of foolishness: see Telvin Smith's taunting penalty after a touchdown Sunday, which gave the Steelers the ball at midfield and set up a quick answer-back scoring drive. The Patriots Mystique could be their 12th man once the Jaguars adrenaline starts raging.
One more thing about the Patriots
The Patriots led the NFL in plays per drive (6.63), yards per drive (39.23), points per drive (2.89) and touchdowns per drive (28.9 percent of drives) in the regular season, per Football Outsiders. They should be able to move the ball efficiently against even the snarling Jaguars defense. It will be interesting to see how the Jaguars react.
Final Four Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars
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How they got here
The Jaguars survived a 45-42 Lord of the Rings trilogy of a football game against the Steelers that included, among other things:
• Two miraculous Steelers fourth-down touchdown passes.
• Two critical Jaguars 4th-and-short defensive stops on dubious Steelers play calls.
• Amazing Jaguars defensive turnovers.
• Shocking Jaguars defensive lapses.
• Some Ben Roethlisberger fakes and laterals that looked like they were borrowed from the rugby pitch.
• Blake Bortles...making critical throws to stave off a Steelers comeback? (Takes temperature to make sure we are not suffering some hallucinatory fever) Blake Bortles making critical throws to stave off a Steelers comeback!
It would take 5,000 words just to explain the fourth-down play-calling in this game. Suffice it to say that it was the greatest Jaguars game since the Broncos upset of 1996, and the Patriots must expect the unexpected when they face the NFL's most unpredictable upstarts.
How to beat the Jaguars
Don't mix a million screens with some bombs to try to win a playground shootout—in other words, don't do what the Steelers tried to do. The Jaguars defense can chase down any screen and generates enough turnovers to compensate for the big plays it sometimes allows.
Instead, do what the 49ers did in Week 15: constrict your formations, protect your quarterback with extra blockers, play for field goals rather than taking risks, and make the Jaguars offense beat you. Also don't get sucked in by play-action, and contain Blake Bortles in the pocket. Play it safe, and there's a good chance the Jaguars will out-mistake you.
Can the Patriots do it?
The Patriots can do anything, man.
One more thing about the Jaguars
This year's Jaguars are a little like the 2011 Tim Tebow Broncos. Like those Broncos, the Jaguars just stunned the Steelers in the playoffs thanks in part to a handful of highlight-reel passes (and some runs) by a quarterback who lives on the inspiration/punchline borderland.
The Tebow Broncos lost 45-10 in Foxborough after beating the Steelers, and while history doesn't always repeat, it does always rhyme.
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Final Four Preview: Minnesota Vikings
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How they got here
The Vikings outlasted the Saints 29-24 in a game that ended with one of the wildest plays ever to cap one of the wildest afternoons of playoff football ever: Stefon Diggs' 61-yard touchdown against a prevent defense in the final seconds.
Earlier in the game, the Vikings took a 17-0 lead on a pair of Drew Brees interceptions. The Saints came back on three Brees touchdowns, one set up by a Case Keenum interception and another by a blocked punt.
The end of the fourth quarter played out like overtime of a college basketball game, but with the Saints and Vikings trading go-ahead field goals instead of buckets. The Saints only needed to tackle Diggs in bounds on the final play to win the game, but rookie safety Marcus Williams whiffed on a shoulder tackle instead.
Luck? More like karma. The surest-tackling team in the NFL prevailed because its opponent missed a tackle when it mattered.
How to beat the Vikings
Don't try anything cute against the most disciplined defense in the league. The Vikings will stay at home against your reverses, sniff out your screens and stop ball-carriers in their tracks when you are craving yards after the catch. Avoid cornerback Xavier Rhodes, block their edge-rushers and prepare to fight for every inch against a unit that has no weaknesses.
The Vikings offense is another matter. Case Keenum is an inconsistent deep passer and will float some balls up for grabs. The Vikings running backs are ordinary. Keep the Vikings pinned in their own territory, turn that field-position advantage into some field goals and win the turnover battle, and you've got a shot—as long as you don't do anything dumb in the last 10 seconds.
Can the Eagles do it?
The Eagles have the defense to harass Keenum into some mistakes, but the Vikings have a defense that can harass Nick Foles into even more mistakes.
One last thing about the Vikings
Just as the Jaguars' victory over the Steelers invoked some Tebow memories, the ending of Sunday's Vikings win conjured images of Jacoby Jones' 70-yard touchdown in the waning moments to force overtime and spur a Ravens victory over Peyton Manning's Broncos in the 2012 playoffs.
The Ravens won the Super Bowl that year as a defense-first team with surprising bursts of offense. The Vikings are more balanced than that Ravens team. Don't put anything past them.
Final Four Preview: Philadelphia Eagles
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How they got here
The Eagles outmuscled, out-hustled, out-planned and outcoached the favored Falcons 15-10 on an icy, gusty evening in Philadelphia.
In a game full of weird bounces and windswept passes and kicks, Doug Pederson and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz schemed the Eagles to victory: Pederson's tasty play designs and judicious fourth-down decisions manufactured just enough offense, while Schwartz's defenders knew exactly what to expect from the Falcons on every 3rd-and-long and goal-line stand.
How to beat the Eagles
Force Nick Foles into 3rd-and-long. To do that, you must stop Jay Ajayi and the other Eagles backs on first and second down, taking away the run-pass option threat that sets up easy passes for Foles to Alshon Jeffery and other receivers.
Eagles cornerbacks gamble on deep passes and bite on double moves. Protect your quarterback—no easy feat, because the Eagles pass rush comes from all across the defensive front—and you should be able to get some chunk plays. Dink-and-dunk won't work against a defense that tackles exceptionally well and lies in wait for interceptions underneath.
Finally, don't let the conditions beat you. The Eagles adjusted to the wind and cold on Saturday far more effectively than the dome-grown Falcons.
Can the Vikings do it?
Absolutely. It's hard to see the Eagles offense scoring more than 13 points against the Vikings without the help of turnovers.
The cold weather is one thing to keep an eye on. These aren't Bud Grant's T-shirt-in-subzero-conditions Vikings. Against the Packers in tundra conditions in Week 16, Keenum looked like he wanted to drag a space heater onto the field with him.
One more thing about the Eagles
The Eagles were 17-of-26 on fourth-down conversions in the regular season and 4-of-18 on fourth-down defense. Saturday's victory illustrated the importance of being good, bold and smart on fourth downs. The Eagles converted one for a touchdown, then stopped a potential game-winner because they recognized the Falcons' play call before the snap.
That's the kind of hidden edge that can decide a defensive duel.
Coaching Carousel: Love It or Hate It
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There are two sides to every story, especially a coaching change. Here are reasons to both love and hate this week's coaching comings and goings.
Raiders officially hire Jon Gruden, whose staff includes offensive coordinator Greg Olson and defensive coordinator Paul Guenther.
Love it because Gruden was a great coach in his day and we're here for the Raiders drama.
Hate it because Gruden's day was over a decade ago, and he appears to be hiring his crackerjack staff the way he was hired: via the buddy system.
Bears hire former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy as head coach.
Love it because Nagy's system is well-suited to the development of Mitchell Trubisky and can make the most of playmakers like Tarik Cohen. New offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich adds Chip Kelly seasoning without the Kelly cuckoo factor. New line coach Harry Hiestand is well-regarded, and it's great to see Nagy pull from beyond the stagnant NFL coaching pool. Best of all, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is sticking around.
Hate it because OMG, did you see the second half of the Titans game? Nagy called, like, a couple of bad plays. That disqualifies him from head coaching forever. The Bears should have hired one of those infallible play-callers!
Packers name Mike Pettine and Joe Philbin as coordinators.
Love it because Pettine is like Rex Ryan, but with all the Family Guy traits that sabotaged Ryan's career sanded down. Philbin is a back-to-the-future hire, but at least he's not Norv Turner.
Hate it because the Packers suffered an exodus in their front office, losing Eliot Wolf and Alonzo Highsmith to the Browns after reassigning Ted Thompson to what appears to be an emeritus position. The team that needed an influx of new ideas will instead make a lot of internal promotions.
Seahawks clean house on offense.
Love it because offensive line coach Tom Cable may not symbolize every single thing wrong with the NFL, but he comes close.
Hate it because Brian Schottenheimer is the favorite to replace Bevell. Goodbye, Russell Wilson running in circles while the offensive line watches. Hello, Wilson waiting in the pocket for five receivers running shallow drag routes to somehow get open.
Panthers replace Mike Shula at offensive coordinator with Norv Turner.
Love it because Shula's offense was basically a few read-option stickers slapped onto a wood-paneled station wagon.
Hate it because Turner's offense is just the station wagon.
Bills fire offensive coordinator Rick Dennison, hire Brian Daboll.
Love it because Dennison did nothing to adjust his offense to the strengths and weaknesses of his personnel.
Hate it because Daboll's NFL offenses ranked 32nd, 29th, 22nd and 24th when he served as the coordinator for the Browns, Chiefs and Jets. All of his success came with Alabama or as a lower-level Patriots assistant. Now ask yourself: Are the Bills more like the Browns/Chiefs/Jets or the Patriots/Crimson Tide?
Hue Jackson fires offensive staff, hires Ken Zampese as QB coach, demurs about hiring an offensive coordinator.
Love it because nothing says "Browns football" quite like "we're 0-16 but will get better by employing fewer coaches!"
Hate it because Jackson doesn't want a qualified assistant on his staff who could take over if he gets fired in midseason, is downright unapologetic about it and is getting away with it.
Eliminated Teams Digest
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Let's bid farewell to the four teams eliminated this weekend and take one last look at what it will take to get them over the postseason hump.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons must either move on from offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian or subject him to Clockwork Orange-style immersion therapy, in which his eyelids are pried open and he is forced to watch his own red-zone offense until his red-zone philosophy is transformed into something socially acceptable.
From a personnel standpoint, the Falcons are some guards and role players away from returning to the Super Bowl. It'd be a shame to waste all of that talent and potential on miserable play-calling.
New Orleans Saints
Today (Monday, January 15) is Drew Brees' 39th birthday. The Saints should celebrate by making a commitment to go all-in for a Super Bowl next season.
That starts by sorting out Brees' contract situation. The Saints have used imaginative accounting to retain Brees through past spending sprees, and they've run fresh out of gift certificates and double coupons. Once Brees is re-signed, there won't be much cap space left to go shopping. But thanks to an outstanding 2017 rookie class, the Saints can get better at many positions just by gaining experience.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown covered for a lot of Steelers flaws on Sunday. They would be just another AFC wild-card also-ran without two of the NFL's most unstoppable playmakers.
Bell is murmuring about retirement if he is slapped with the franchise tag, and while that's probably a negotiation tactic, the Steelers need him happy and healthy as long as the Ben Roethlisberger window remains open.
To repeat a theme among this weekend's eliminated teams, the Steelers have some severe coaching issues on both sides of the ball. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley bears much of the blame, but Keith Butler's defense got into too many late-season shootouts with Brett Hundley, Joe Flacco and now Blake Bortles. New schemes and personalities could lead to more consistency, which may be the secret to finally pushing past the Patriots.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have the talent of a 12-4 team and are in the process of ruining it. Marcus Mariota is developing backward, the Titans offense is practically designed to prevent long pass plays, and the defense ranked 32nd in preventing short passes this year (per Football Outsiders), a fact Tom Brady and Bill Belichick took a break from the Patriots parlor drama to notice and exploit.
Like the Falcons (and perhaps the Steelers), the Titans need to do right by their players and assemble a coaching staff and system that develops talent instead of stymieing it. But the Falcons and Steelers at least have veteran playmakers able to overcome iffy coaching. There's a risk the Mariota Era for the Titans will be over before it ever really starts.
Inside the Numbers
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Nick Foles, QB, Eagles: 23-of-30, 246 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INT
Foles threw three passes of 20-plus yards: a screen-and-run by Jay Ajayi ( yards), a third-down pass where Alshon Jeffery's defender slipped (21 yards) and the pass that ricocheted off safety Keanu Neal's body into Torrey Smith's hands (20 yards). Foles also threw five short flat passes to third-down back Corey Clement for 31 yards and earned 10 more yards on a glorified reverse handoff to Nelson Agholor. And he fumbled two handoff exchanges.
Foles' 77 percent completion rate, in other words, was a tad misleading.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars: 25 carries for 109 yards, 3 TDs; 2 catches for 10 yards on 4 targets
Fournette rushed 12 times for 82 yards and two touchdowns before limping off with what looked like a severe leg injury in the second quarter. He returned after halftime to rush 13 times for just 27 yards. The second-half production suggested Fournette was off his game, and his injury status is worth monitoring this week, but:
• His presence prompted the Steelers to load up the box against the run, weakening their second-half pass defense.
• He blasted through the line when it mattered most on a three-yard TD early in the fourth quarter. And...
• All of Fournette's interior plunges set up that sweet, sweet I-formation play-action Tommy Bohanon touchdown, which was the stuff of fullback fantasies.
Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots: 11 catches on 13 targets for 112 yards
Amendola converted five third downs with short receptions, including the sideline catch before halftime with the Matrix hiccup that froze the clock at 0:01 long enough to grab a snack.
The Patriots are so good at overwhelming opponents with Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis that a 112-yard receiving performance is almost an afterthought; it's a tradition that goes back to the days when Wes Welker jabbed away with 11 receptions so Randy Moss could deliver the knockout blow.
Stefon Diggs, Vikings: 6 catches on 10 targets for 137 yards, 1 TD
Before his all-time-highlight-montage, game-winning touchdown, Diggs caught a 17-yard pass to convert a third down in the first quarter and a 22-yarder for a third-down conversion in the fourth quarter.
One of the things that makes the Vikings offense difficult to defend is Case Keenum's willingness (within Pat Shurmur's scheme) to distribute passes among Diggs, Adam Thielen, Jarius Wright, tight end Kyle Rudolph and other targets. Diggs had 10 targets Sunday, Thielen nine, Rudolph eight and Wright six. Thielen is the nominal No. 1 receiver, but there is no Julio Jones or Antonio Brown: just a deep corps (Jerick McKinnon, Michael Floyd and Laquon Treadwell are also sometimes in the mix) that can beat you.
Awards Digest
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Defender of the Week
Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith finished with 14 solo tackles, two assists, a pass defensed and a fumble-recovery touchdown that thwarted the first of many near-comebacks by the Steelers. His end-zone taunt was also the dumbest mistake of the weekend, non-coaching edition. Try that in Foxborough next week, and future refs will still be penalizing your grandkids, Telvin.
Offensive Line of the Week
The Patriots rarely win Offensive Line of the Week, because all credit for their offensive success is offered up to the greater glory of Brady. But the Titans failed to sack Brady once in Saturday night's blowout, and while Brady's clever pocket footwork and quick release had a lot to do with that (there we go again), Nate Solder, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, LaAdrian Waddle and super-sub Cameron Fleming (who replaced the injured Waddle in the second half) deserve a sliver of the spotlight.
Special Teamer of the Week
George Johnson's blocked punt set up a Saints go-ahead touchdown before 50 other things happened in the fourth quarter of the Vikings win.
By the way, Johnson wasn't credited with an official blocked punt because the ball wobbled past the line of scrimmage (Robert Golden suffered the same fate for the Steelers earlier in the day). Also, the television announcers fixated on Taysom Hill after the play, because Hill is a telegenic emergency quarterback who almost made the play, so Johnson's contribution to an epic playoff game is in danger of being forgotten forever.
This is why Awards Digest is here, folks.
Block of the Week
A three-way tie:
• Eagles guard Stefen Wisniewski swallowing two Falcons defenders in the open field to spring Jay Ajayi for a 21-yard gain on a screen pass.
• Eagles tight end Trey Burton, playing I-formation goal-line fullback, upending linebacker LaRoy Reynolds on LeGarrette Blount's touchdown run.
• T.J. Yeldon crushing Steelers safety Mike Mitchell on a Blake Bortles scramble.
Mystery Touch of the Week
Saints receiver Willie Sneed caught a lateral from Drew Brees and attempted a deep pass across the field to Alvin Kamara on 3rd-and-1 in Sean Payton's most daring playoff decision since the onside kick in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Saints, Sneed's pass was too much of a line drive, and it sailed past Kamara's arms.
Worst Coaching Decision of the Week
The Steelers refused to call quarterback sneaks on 4th-and-inches. Instead, they ran a sweep and challenged Pro Bowl cornerback A.J. Bouye with a short pass on two fourth downs Ben Roethlisberger could have made by poking his tongue out.
It takes a lot to wrest "worst coaching decision" honors from Steve Sarkisian, but Todd Haley is always up for a challenge.
And Finally...
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Imagine if NFL organizations really followed the Rooney Rule, in both letter and spirit.
Imagine if, instead of thinking, Let's schedule a quickie interview with that one black coordinator so we can hire the guy the owner likes from TV, they realized that nepotism and cronyism have stagnated the coordinator and coaching pools and started assembling broad, deep lists of candidates. (You know, like successful organizations in every other field do.)
Teams would interview lower-level assistants, college coaches, CFL and Arena Football coaches. The wide net would sweep up minority candidates of all backgrounds and some overlooked "majority" candidates as well.
Many would get interviews. Few would be immediately hired. But the interviews would lead to promotions, coordinator opportunities and a pipeline of talent and ideas that flows.
The new coaches rising through the ranks would bring new systems, new practice and teaching techniques, new philosophies. Mobile young quarterbacks would no longer be yoked to schemes designed for Troy Aikman in 1992. Players who speak their minds would no longer be treated like treacherous rebels.
Imagine organizations discovering that their dynamic, diversified coaching staffs were more successful than the ones headed by dudes with famous last names. Those organizations might then wonder what would happen if more women were represented in scouting/training/football operations departments. They might discover the value of making LGBT players, employees and fans feel a little more included.
Maybe NFL teams would start building front offices that look like the international audience the league is trying desperately to attract and keep.
The NFL would be younger, smarter, more exciting, more receptive to change and better positioned to succeed...if NFL teams just followed the spirit of the Rooney Rule.
It isn't happening this year, because everyone is still just hiring their buddies and making excuses.
But hey, we can dream.
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