Fantasy Football Week 6: Matt Camp's Week 6 Preview
The NFL season usually yields plenty of injuries to important fantasy football players.
Week 5, it didn't.
In general, that’s good news in the fantasy world. But it also means a weak overall group of waiver wire adds—besides game-changing wide receiver Sammie Coates, who's now headlining that list.
I’m always asked about how much of your waiver wire budget to allocate to or if the top waiver priority spot is worth using on the best player available in any given week. This is one of those weeks where you can break the bank and/or use that priority spot in the waiver order to go get Coates.
The running back group is a bunch of short-term solutions and players in obvious committees that could give us different backs leading the way each game. Proceed with caution when it comes to the RBs. There’s no one to fall in love with, so don’t feel the need to get aggressive in trying to get any of them on your team.
Quarterbacks
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Waiver Wire
Brian Hoyer, CHI
Percent Owned: ESPN – 16.6, Yahoo – 18
Brian Hoyer has been such a good streaming option over the last three games that we have to start considering him as someone to keep on your roster. With a nice matchup against the Colts in Week 5, Hoyer completed 33 of his 43 attempts for 397 yards and two touchdowns. That’s his third straight start with 300+ yards, two TDs and no interceptions.
John Fox has said the team doesn’t have a plan at quarterback, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. That indicates they have no intentions of going back to Jay Cutler. With that in mind, Hoyer should be in for another good start at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6.
Week 6 Projection: 260-270 yards, 2 touchdowns
Alex Smith, KC
Percent Owned: ESPN – 23.4, Yahoo – 18
If you’re into the streaming game this week, Alex Smith is probably the top option on the board you’ll be able to land without much of a problem. He faces the Oakland Raiders in Week 6, which is a matchup you may as well follow around for fantasy until they figure out what to do on defense.
In five games, Oakland’s allowed a league-high 1,690 yards and 12 TDs through the air. You’d think Smith would have to ramp up his attempts to get near those numbers, but he’s actually averaging 42 attempts per game and has five TDs to two interceptions.
This game could be high-scoring, as both defenses have looked vulnerable. Smith is good enough to take advantage of a beatable matchup, and a trip to Oakland should give us plenty of fantasy production.
Week 6 Projection: 290-300 yards, 2 touchdowns
Marcus Mariota, TEN
Percent Owned: ESPN – 32, Yahoo – 47
Reaching deep for a quarterback might not be avoidable this week. If you need one, consider Marcus Mariota, who has a great matchup with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon. Yes, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots just torched them, but they’ve been bad all season against a variety of opponents.
Mariota has also been bad for most of the season, but he and the Titans turned things around in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins. He completed 20 of 29 attempts for 163 yards and three touchdowns. It was his first game this season without an interception. And after rushing for 72 yards on 13 carries in the first four games, Mariota galloped around for 60 yards and a TD on seven carries against Miami.
One game may not change everything that went wrong for Mariota and the Titans in the first four weeks, but he’s going in the right direction with a matchup that shouldn’t scare him. If you’re stuck, he’s worth a shot.
Week 6 Projection: 240-250 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, 35 rushing yards
The Matchup Men
As a sneak preview of my weekly rankings, these are the players who are helped or hurt by their matchups. I’ll provide additional analysis and projections in Wednesday’s Big Board.
Matchup Bumps
Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. ATL)
Alex Smith, KC (at OAK)
Carson Palmer, ARI (vs. NYJ)
Marcus Mariota, TEN (vs. CLE)
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (at MIA)
Matchup Concerns
Matt Ryan, ATL (at SEA)
Kirk Cousins, WAS (vs. PHI)
Andrew Luck, IND (at HOU)
Running Backs
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Note: This is a particularly bad week for running backs on the waiver wire. These are short-term adds at best with almost no long-term value. I wouldn’t waste a top waiver priority on any of them.
Waiver Wire
Jalen Richard, OAK
Percent Owned: ESPN – 19.3, Yahoo – 21
I included Jalen Richard in my late-week, under-the-radar waiver wire as part of last Friday’s Futures Report article because he wasn’t owned in nearly as many leagues as teammate DeAndre Washington. There wasn’t a huge difference between the two against the Chargers in Week 5, but Richard was a little better for fantasy.
Richard rushed eight times for 31 yards compared to Washington's nine carries for 23 yards. Richard added six receptions for 66 yards on seven targets. Washington also stayed busy as a receiver with five receptions on six targets for 29 yards. Neither player found the end zone, but fullback Jamize Olawale did on a one-yard run.
For only the second time this season, Washington outsnapped Richard with 49 percent to Richard’s 30 percent. Even if Latavius Murray (toe) is out again, Week 5 proved that Oakland doesn't have one lead back. They’ve used multiple backs this season and sit at 4-1 in the standings, so don’t expect much to change.
Week 6 Projection: 7 carries, 28 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 44 receiving yards
James Starks, GB
Percent Owned: ESPN – 23.7, Yahoo – 9
If we’re talking about James Starks on the waiver wire, you might think Eddie Lacy is underperforming once again. Instead, Lacy is playing great—or was, until he hurt his ankle in the third quarter of the team’s Week 5 win over the New York Giants.
According to Ryan Wood of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, head coach Mike McCarthy thinks the injury isn’t serious, but he doesn’t know if Lacy will be ready for Week 6 against the Dallas Cowboys. That bumps Starks into the spotlight after producing 33 yards on 12 carries and three receptions for 19 yards against the Giants.
The Packers offense still seems out of whack, meaning Starks is not much more than a RB2 or flex if Lacy has to sit out this week.
Week 6 Projection: To be determined based on Lacy’s status
Bobby Rainey, NYG
Percent Owned: ESPN – 4, Yahoo – 5
Bobby Rainey was another late-week grab I suggested once it looked like Rashad Jennings needed another week to heal. In fact, Rainey was the only member of the Giants backfield I felt comfortable using in their Week 5 matchup against the vaunted Packers run defense.
Rainey came through by catching all six of his targets for 52 yards and rushing for 22 yards on five carries. He scored at least 13 points in points-per-reception formats in each of the last two games. Even if Jennings returns this week, Rainey should keep an active role as the top receiver in this backfield.
Week 6 Projection: 4 carries, 20 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 44 receiving yards
Jay Ajayi, MIA
Percent Owned: ESPN – 48.3, Yahoo – 32
Out of the muck and mire known as the Dolphins backfield, Jay Ajayi emerged as Miami's top fantasy back in Week 5. He led the team with 13 carries for 42 yards and a score while playing a season-high 68 percent of the snaps. It was the second straight week he led the team’s RBs in snaps.
Ajayi may only stay on top of this backfield until Arian Foster returns from his groin and hamstring injuries. Assuming Foster doesn’t return for Week 6 against the Steelers, you can add or use Ajayi with a lot of confidence to plug a hole in your lineup this week.
Week 6 Projection: To be determined based on Foster’s status
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
C.J. Anderson, DEN (at SD)
Lamar Miller, HOU (vs. IND)
DeMarco Murray, TEN (vs. CLE)
LeSean McCoy, BUF (vs. SF)
Ryan Mathews/Darren Sproles, PHI (at WAS)
Jamaal Charles/Spencer Ware, KC (at OAK)
Christine Michael, SEA (vs. ATL)
Matchup Concerns
Matt Jones, WAS (vs. PHI)
Wide Receivers
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Waiver Wire
Sammie Coates, PIT
Percent Owned: ESPN – 39.8, Yahoo – 38
Sammie Coates was included in last week’s top waiver adds, so if you scooped him up and played him in Week 5, you’re probably gloating to the rest of your league and with good reason. He came through with a monster game against the New York Jets, including six receptions for 139 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets. Amazingly, Coates could have been even better if not for multiple drops, one of which would have been another short TD.
Even though Coates will frustrate you with his bad hands on occasion, he more than makes up for it—and as we saw in Week 5, the Steelers keep throwing to him even after the drops. With an offense that includes both Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, it’s hard to give too much attention to Coates, which makes him that much more dangerous.
You might worry about having just one football and lots of mouths to feed in Pittsburgh, but fear not: Ben Roethlisberger averaged more than 38 attempts over the first five games. He should make plenty of connections with Coates in Miami on Sunday.
Week 6 Projection: 6 receptions, 82 yards, 1 touchdown
Chris Hogan, NE
Percent Owned: ESPN – 34.8, Yahoo – 25
If you stashed Chris Hogan away, Week 5 was the time to give him a shot, as the Patriots got Tom Brady back under center against the Browns. Hogan paid off, hauling in four receptions for 114 yards on five targets. Other than Julian Edelman, the Patriots got good-to-great fantasy performances from their best fantasy options.
Hogan looks like one of the top WRs in New England. That's great, but he still has to battle for targets with Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett, so there might be a hit-or-miss element to his fantasy value. Still, the margin for error is a little bigger when you're catching passes from Tom Brady.
Week 6 Projection: 4 receptions, 66 yards
Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
Percent Owned: ESPN – 0.6, Yahoo – 1
The Minnesota Vikings were without top WR Stefon Diggs (groin) in Week 5, so they boosted Adam Thielen’s snaps to 89 percent and he took advantage, catching seven of eight targets for 127 yards and a touchdown. Cordarrelle Patterson made his presence known with four receptions for 39 yards and a score on six targets plus a carry for seven yards. No Diggs, no problem for the Vikings.
So why am I advocating Patterson over Thielen? Because I’m looking down the road (Vikings have a Week 6 bye). Patterson should be the better option for the rest of the season because he’s such a unique and versatile wide receiver. His value started to increase last week when his snaps jumped from single-digits to 48 percent and then up again to 59 percent in Week 5.
Thielen’s snaps hadn’t topped 60 percent before Week 5, and then he got a huge bump that was directly related to Diggs’ absence. Assuming Diggs is back from his groin injury in Week 7, Thielen should drop back into his complementary role, which saw him catch no more than four balls or receive more than five targets in the team’s first four games. Patterson has a better chance of staying involved regardless of who’s around him.
Week 6 Projection: BYE
Jeremy Kerley, SF
Percent Owned: ESPN – 8, Yahoo – 9
The San Francisco 49ers have one of the worst pass offenses in the league, but they’ve been good enough to provide us with another fantasy option to consider along with weekly starter Carlos Hyde.
Jeremy Kerley is coming off his best game of the year with eight receptions on 13 targets for 102 yards and a TD. He has at least six targets in every game, at least six receptions in three games and scores in the last two. He has nearly double the targets of the next closest receiver, Torrey Smith (45-23), and exactly double the receptions of his closest competition, Hyde (26-13).
Week 6 Projection: 6 receptions, 69 yards
Cameron Meredith, CHI
Percent Owned: ESPN – 1.5, Yahoo – 4
If you picked up Cameron Meredith leading into Week 5 as a possible plug-and-play with both Eddie Royal and Alshon Jeffery banged up, you may not have followed through because both Royal and Jeffery were active. If you did play him, you were treated to nine receptions on 12 targets for 130 yards and a TD. He led the Bears in every receiving category.
Can Meredith keep it up? With Kevin White on injured reserve, the door is open for Meredith—although he’ll still battle Jeffery, Royal, Zach Miller and even Jordan Howard for touches. Still, Meredith has good size at 6'3", 207 pounds, which is why he’s starting on the outside opposite Jeffery. With Brian Hoyer playing well and throwing it a bunch (almost 43 attempts per game), Meredith has a shot to stay relevant.
Week 6 Projection: 5 receptions, 71 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Jeremy Maclin, KC (at OAK)
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (vs. NYJ)
Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (at SD)
Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree, OAK (vs. KC)
Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (at NO)
Doug Baldwin, SEA (vs. ATL)
Matchup Concerns
Tyrell Williams, SD (vs. DEN)
Julio Jones, ATL (at SEA)
DeSean Jackson, WAS (vs. PHI)
Tight Ends
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Waiver Wire
Hunter Henry, SD
Percent Owned: ESPN – 55.3, Yahoo – 28
Antonio Gates returned to action in Week 5, so sticking with Hunter Henry may have been tough. If you managed, it paid off nicely.
Henry snagged three of his four targets for 74 yards and a touchdown while playing 80 percent of the snaps. By comparison, Gates was on the field 33 percent of the time, winding up with four receptions for 30 yards and a TD on five targets.
The San Diego Chargers are short on talent after the major injuries that struck their team this season, so keeping both Henry and Gates involved makes sense. Plus, Henry may not just be the future of this position for the Chargers—he may be their best option right now. But unless Gates totally falls off or gets injured, he won’t be going away, and his presence limits Henry’s upside.
Week 6 Projection: 4 receptions, 62 yards
Charles Clay, BUF
Percent Owned: ESPN – 13.8, Yahoo – 12
If you’re looking for a solid tight end who has a chance to be busy in any given week, you want Charles Clay. He came through with 12.3 fantasy points in points-per-reception formats in Week 5 thanks to five receptions for 73 yards on five targets. It’s his second straight game with at least five receptions and five targets.
Besides Robert Woods, the Buffalo Bills are very thin at wide receiver with Sammy Watkins sidelined indefinitely. That means Clay has to be more involved. Through five weeks, his target total (24) is second only to Woods' and his reception total (17) isn't far behind Woods' 20 and McCoy's 19.
Clay gets a favorable matchup against the 49ers in Week 6.
Week 6 Projection: 5 receptions, 55 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Delanie Walker, TEN (vs. CLE)
Jimmy Graham, SEA (vs. ATL)
Travis Kelce, KC (at OAK)
Jason Witten, DAL (at GB)
Charles Clay, BUF (vs. SF)
Jesse James, PIT (at MIA)
Matchup Concerns
Dwayne Allen, IND (at HOU)
Jacob Tamme, ATL (at SEA)
Defenses
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This will typically focus on the best streaming options widely available in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues based on the matchups. Unfortunately, it’s not a great week to grab widely available defenses with good matchups.
Tennessee Titans
Percent Owned: ESPN – 5.9, Yahoo – 6
If you reached deep in Week 5, the Titans defense may have been in your lineup against the Dolphins. They sacked Ryan Tannehill six times, forced two interceptions and allowed just 17 points in a matchup that looked good on paper and ended up even better in reality.
They are worth using again this week thanks to another favorable matchup, hosting the Browns on Sunday. In five games, Cleveland has allowed 13 sacks, thrown five interceptions, lost three fumbles and given up two safeties.
Week 6 Projection: 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, 15-18 points allowed
Kickers
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During the season, the kickers on the rise or those entering favorable matchups with a lot of points forecasted will be featured in this section.
Jason Myers, JAC
Percent Owned: ESPN – 1.8, Yahoo – 1
Jason Myers is probably sitting on your waiver wire right now coming off a Week 5 bye, but don’t leave him there long. In the Jaguars' last game (back in Week 4 against the Colts), Myers had his best fantasy performance of the season with three field goals and three extra points. He has a good chance to build on that success in Chicago against the Bears.
Nick Novak, HOU
Percent Owned: ESPN – 12.3, Yahoo – 16
The Houston Texans haven’t looked great on offense, but they’ve done enough to give Novak at least three field-goal attempts in four of five games this year. His 11 field goals place him in the top five for the position and the top 12 in fantasy points per game.
Novak should have another busy week when the Texans look to get back on track against a vulnerable Colts defense.
Camp's Corner
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Overrating or underrating how a player starts a season can mess up your judgment, which in turn has long-term effects on your team. You can't know the difference between a flukey start, whether it be good or bad, and a player's legitimate potential after just a few weeks.
Recognizing early warning signs and monitoring them to see if they become a pattern is how you can form an educated opinion and act accordingly.
After two weeks, Matt Forte had 59 touches and averaged 3.8 yards per carry. But because he was coming off a three-touchdown performance against the Bills, the excitement of Forte looking like a clear-cut RB1 overshadowed the problems that could arise from such a heavy workload. Forte is now in his ninth season, and he racked up 245+ carries in five of his eight previous seasons and 50+ receptions in six of those eight seasons.
Since then, Forte has dropped out of the top-15 RBs in points-per-reception scoring average for the season and hasn’t even been a top-40 RB over the last three weeks. And during that same three-week span, teammate Bilal Powell was a top-25 RB.
While Forte could bounce back, I wouldn’t expect him to return to reliable RB1 status for the rest of the season. If you paid attention, the signs were there, and the concerns became a reality within a month. Long-term vision and being cautiously aggressive, like selling Forte very high after Week 2, is how you come out on top of your fantasy football league.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Tuesday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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