Fantasy Football Week 4: Matt Camp's Week 4 Preview
The front-runner for the 2016 NFL MVP award is off in Week 4, and so is Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
OK, so maybe Philadelphia Eagles signal-caller Carson Wentz isn't quite there yet, but he’s been one of the fun surprises of the first three weeks of the season. So has leading rusher LeGarrette Blount and leading receiver Marvin Jones Jr.
But maybe you haven’t been part of the fun so far. Maybe you’re still trying to figure out how to replace Adrian Peterson, Danny Woodhead, Keenan Allen or Ameer Abdullah on your fantasy football roster.
Maybe you’re trying to figure out why Terrelle Pryor Sr. has more receiving yards than Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones. And now you’re realizing that Pryor might be the top waiver pickup for Week 4. Well, he is.
As always, working the waiver wire is important no matter where you are in the standings, but how do you prioritize? Do you go after Jordan Howard because you desperately need a running back? Or do you scoop up Wentz or Pryor thinking that one of them has the most upside for the rest of the season?
A future champion will add a player or two who ends up being a major piece to their ultimate victory. Don’t get left behind.
Quarterbacks
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Waiver Wire
Carson Wentz, PHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—19.3, Yahoo—20.0
Typically, my suggestions for QBs are focused on the best streaming options for the week and not a player heading into a bye. However, when I checked out Wentz’s ownership percentages, it occurred to me that not everyone is on board the Wentz Wagon and may let that roll right down the tracks with the Eagles off in Week 4.
If you have the room and can survive a week without him, Wentz is a smart add. Last week’s match with the Steelers was supposed to be a blowout but not in favor of the Eagles. Instead, Wentz played his best game yet, completing 23 of 31 attempts for 301 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. For the season, Wentz has 769 passing yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions.
Wentz looks in complete control of the offense and isn’t afraid to stay in the pocket and take a hit if it means making a completion down the field. According to head coach Doug Pederson, Wentz is "Peyton Manning-ish" when it comes to watching and talking about tape, per Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice. You can’t get much higher praise than that.
The rookie should have a chance to stay hot with matchups against the Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins in Weeks 5 and 6, respectively, before the toughest test of his young career with the Minnesota Vikings in Week 7. Pick him up and play him with confidence for those two weeks after the bye.
Week 4 Projection: BYE
Joe Flacco, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—23.8, Yahoo—29.0
I know, I know. Flacco hasn’t been great for fantasy, yet here he is, back in the streaming options for QBs. In the Ravens’ third straight win to open the season, Flacco completed 29 of 40 attempts for 214 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns. Luckily, he had three carries for 12 yards, including a rare rushing TD.
While he’s thrown just three touchdowns to four interceptions on the season, Flacco is averaging 258 yards and nearly 40 attempts per game. When you factor in that volume, he's a good streaming candidate this week with a juicy matchup against the visiting Raiders. Oakland’s allowed a league-high 1,033 passing yards, seven touchdowns and the third-most fantasy points to QBs so far.
Flacco is an obvious pickup for Week 4.
Week 4 Projection: 275-285 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
Trevor Siemian, DEN
Percent Owned: ESPN—4.7, Yahoo—5.0
I’m proceeding with caution when it comes to Siemian. In Week 3, the Denver Broncos quarterback had a favorable matchup at home against the Indianapolis Colts and went 22-of-33 passing for 266 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. He followed that up with a 312-yard, four-touchdown performance on the road in Cincinnati in Week 3.
I’m trying not to making sweeping judgments just three weeks into the season, and when it comes to Siemian, how can I? In only his second start, the decent but far from great numbers against the Colts are understandable, but for him to go on the road against a conference contender and dominate was a surprise. Yet it showed he’s capable of taking advantage of the weapons around him.
That’s why he’s an option for streaming purposes in Week 4 when the Broncos travel to Tampa to face the Buccaneers. QBs have tagged them for 828 passing yards and seven touchdowns while giving up the fifth-most fantasy points. Other than the long trip, nothing should scare you about Siemian, so give him a shot if you’re searching for a QB.
Week 4 Projection: 265-275 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
The Matchup Men
As a sneak preview of my weekly rankings, these are the players whose matchups help or hurt them. I’ll provide additional analysis and projections in Wednesday’s Big Board.
Matchup Bumps
Cam Newton, CAR (at ATL)
Drew Brees, NO (at SD)
Philip Rivers, SD (vs. NO)
Joe Flacco, BAL (vs. OAK)
Kirk Cousins, WAS (vs. CLE)
Trevor Siemian, DEN (at TB)
Brian Hoyer, CHI (vs. DET)
Matchup Concerns
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (vs. KC)
Eli Manning, NYG (at MIN)
Jameis Winston, TB (vs. DEN)
Running Backs
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Waiver Wire
Jordan Howard, CHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—15.5, Yahoo—25.0
It was only a matter of time before the Bears made their backfield into a fantasy nightmare, but an injury may have turned that into a dream for Howard. Jeremy Langford led the way in the first two games, but Howard started to make some noise in Week 2 against the Eagles. That noise got much louder in Week 3 when Langford went down with an ankle injury.
Howard finished the game against the Dallas Cowboys with nine carries for 45 yards and four receptions for 47 yards on six targets. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Langford is expected to miss four to six weeks with a sprained ankle. Ka’Deem Carey sat out Week 3 with a hamstring injury, so Chicago's backfield could be wide-open for Howard.
Howard should start this week with an attractive matchup against the Lions. They’ve allowed 4.89 yards per carry to running backs in the first three games. Howard could be a season-changing addition to your fantasy team.
Week 4 Projection: 15 carries, 70 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 32 receiving yards
Darren Sproles, PHI
Percent Owned: ESPN—49.3, Yahoo—40.0
Through two weeks, Sproles leads the Eagles backfield with 98 out of 214 possible snaps. The next closest is Ryan Mathews with 66 snaps. While some of that is due to Matthews’ ankle that stiffened in Week 3, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, it’s clear the Eagles have a plan for Sproles and are executing it with success.
Philly used a committee in its 34-3 Week 3 victory over the Steelers with Sproles out in front. He carried just two times for negative-one yard but was the leading receiver with six receptions on six targets for 128 yards, including a 73-yard touchdown from Carson Wentz. According to Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer, head coach Doug Pederson said that while Mathews will remain the starter when healthy, the team would continue to have a rotation.
That shouldn’t scare you from grabbing Sproles, as he’s the only consistent receiving threat in the backfield and a reliable option for Wentz.
Week 4 Projection: BYE
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—14, Yahoo—12
As a speculative add, take a look at Dixon. He’s been out since tearing his MCL on Aug. 27, and his timetable for return was four weeks since he didn’t need surgery, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. That also kept Dixon off the physically unable to perform list to open the season, which would have kept him out for a minimum of four weeks.
Dixon hasn’t played or even practiced over the first three weeks and isn’t a lock to return in Week 4, but based on the initial timetable, this would be a good time to add him. In his absence, Terrance West and Justin Forsett have had a near even split in carries, but neither player is averaging four yards per carry. This could be Dixon’s backfield for the taking, so get ahead before that becomes clear.
Week 4 Projection: To be determined based on Week 4 status
Orleans Darkwa, NYG
Percent Owned: ESPN—5, Yahoo—3
The Giants have battled injuries in their backfield over the last two weeks and suffered a big blow in Sunday's loss to Washington when they lost Shane Vereen for at least two months to a triceps injury, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL Network. Starter Rashad Jennings had to sit out Week 3 with a thumb injury, but according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Giants are optimistic he’ll be back for Week 4.
So where does that leave Darkwa? Over the first three weeks, the Giants have stuck with mostly a two-man rotation, which was Vereen and Darkwa in Week 3. Darkwa had a productive day with 10 carries for 53 yards and a reception for nine yards on his only target.
If Jennings is good to go in Week 4, the Giants could decide to use him and Darkwa or involve veteran Bobby Rainey in a similar role to Vereen as a receiver. However, if Jennings can’t go or is limited, Darkwa could play a bigger role. It comes in a tough matchup with the Vikings in Minneapolis, though. He’s not a priority add, but his value would rise if Jennings’ thumb injury lingers.
Week 4 Projection: To be determined based on Jennings' status
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Melvin Gordon, SD (vs. NO)
Mark Ingram, NO (at SD)
Jordan Howard, CHI (vs. DET)
Isaiah Crowell, CLE (at WAS)
Fozzy Whittaker, CAR (at ATL)
Dwayne Washington, DET (at CHI)
Matchup Concerns
Christine Michael, SEA (at NYJ)
Jerick McKinnon, MIN (vs. NYG)
Wide Receivers
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Waiver Wire
Terrelle Pryor, CLE
Percent Owned: ESPN—27.8, Yahoo—23.0
Based on what we saw in the preseason, it looked like Pryor would take on a Ted Ginn Jr.-like role for the Browns as their designated shot-play receiver. He likely wouldn’t have consistent fantasy value but could flash enough at times to consider him a deep reach in any week. A lot has changed since the preseason, including multiple quarterbacks and a big injury to rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman (broken hand).
As a result, Pryor took on a much bigger role in Week 3 as the Browns used him against the Miami Dolphins in a variety of ways with a lot of success. He caught eight of 14 targets for 144 yards, rushed four times for 21 yards and a TD, and he completed three of five pass attempts for 35 yards. The Browns are short on talent, so it makes sense to get creative with a versatile player like Pryor.
His role as a receiver might not be as active when Josh Gordon returns after Week 4, but his touches should be consistent if he continues to play multiple roles. The Browns have a decent matchup with Washington, which is down safety DeAngelo Hall (torn ACL) and possibly cornerback Bashaud Breeland (ankle).
Week 4 Projection: 5 receptions, 71 receiving yards, 3 carries, 24 rushing yards, 3 pass attempts, 28 passing yards
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Percent Owned: ESPN—11.1, Yahoo—16.0
The Redskins have gotten plenty of volume out of their offense in the first three weeks, but it took until the 29-27 Week 3 win over the Giants to get more than just big yardage. Crowder was part of that with four receptions for 78 yards on seven targets, including a 55-yard touchdown.
Crowder has been an active part of the offense since the start of the season with 16 receptions for 175 yards and two touchdowns. His 24 targets tie him for the team lead with tight end Jordan Reed. With 139 snaps, he’s not far behind DeSean Jackson (150) and Pierre Garcon (141) and is outproducing the latter. Washington’s pass-first offense should continue their success against the Browns, which has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Week 4 Projection: 5 receptions, 60 yards
Michael Thomas, NO
Percent Owned: ESPN—56.6, Yahoo—48.0
The preseason buzz for Thomas translated into production to start the regular season, but a bad start for the Saints in the win-loss column somewhat overshadowed that. With a toe injury sidelining Willie Snead for the Monday night matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, Thomas had a chance for more opportunities and made the most of them.
While Brandin Cooks was limited to just two receptions for 13 yards on eight targets, Thomas came through with seven receptions for 71 yards on 11 targets, including a TD. He has 17 receptions for 185 yards and a score on 22 yards over his first three games, which gives him the team lead for receptions.
The Saints have a deep receiving corps when you include tight end Coby Fleener, so it won’t always be easy for Thomas to get regular targets, especially when Snead is healthy. But you could say that for any Saint receiver since Drew Brees likes to spread the ball around. Luckily, with a bad defense, New Orleans usually has to throw it a bunch, which could keep Thomas in the mix every week.
He’ll try to keep it up in San Diego on Sunday.
Week 4 Projection: 5 receptions, 64 yards
Steve Smith Sr., BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN—52.1, Yahoo—39.0
Amazingly, Smith has come back from his Achilles injury and improved his yardage in each game, culminating in his Week 3 performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which yielded 87 yards on eight receptions (11 targets). Smith has posted 16 catches for 170 yards on 26 targets on the season and has quickly regained his role as one of the top receivers for quarterback Joe Flacco.
Other than WR Mike Wallace and TE Dennis Pitta, Smith doesn’t have anyone pushing him hard for targets. So while he may not be a big-play threat, he has Flacco's trust, and that can go a long way. He’ll have a great chance to keep up his strong start against the Raiders on Sunday. No team has allowed more fantasy points to WRs over the first three weeks.
Week 4 Projection: 6 receptions, 64 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
A.J. Green, CIN (vs. MIA)
T.Y. Hilton, IND (at JAC—London)
Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (at TB)
Mike Wallace/Steve Steve, BAL (vs. OAK)
DeSean Jackson/Jamison Crowder, WAS (vs. CLE)
Travis Benjamin/Tyrell Williams, SD (vs. NO)
Matchup Concerns
Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker, NYJ (vs. SEA)
Mike Evans, TB (vs. DEN)
Odell Beckham Jr./Sterling Shepard, NYG (at MIN)
Tight Ends
4 of 7
Waiver Wire
Kyle Rudolph, MIN
Percent Owned: ESPN—40.6, Yahoo—42.0
It didn’t take long for Rudolph to connect with QB Sam Bradford. In the 22-10 Week 3 victory over the Panthers in North Carolina, Rudolph hauled in seven of his 10 targets for 70 yards and a score, his second in as many weeks. Rudolph was the team’s leading receiver in every category except one (Adam Thielen had a long of 19 yards versus Rudolph's 18) and has re-established himself as a credible fantasy option.
Other than Rudolph and WR Stefon Diggs, the Vikings don’t have go-to players in their receiving corps, and their rushing attack isn’t the same without Adrian Peterson, especially behind a shoddy offensive line. Rudolph has an average matchup against an improved Giants defense Sunday night.
Week 4 Projection: 4 receptions, 45 yards
Hunter Henry, SD
Percent Owned: ESPN—12, Yahoo—6
Rarely does a rookie tight end make any impact, but when you’re the Chargers and your best players are dropping like flies, you’re forced to turn to unlikely sources of production, including someone like Henry. Antonio Gates wasn’t close to playing because of an injured hamstring and won't be seeing a lot of snaps, if any, in Week 4, according to Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
In Gates’ absence, Henry caught all five of his targets for 76 yards and was having a great day overall until he fumbled his last reception, which killed any chance of victory. Still, Henry looked every bit the part of the top TE from this year’s rookie class. Assuming he plays Gates' place once again, Henry could be in line for another solid performance against the putrid Saints defense.
Week 4 Projection: 5 receptions, 68 yards
Cameron Brate, TB
Percent Owned: ESPN—0.9, Yahoo—2.0
Just days after releasing Austin Seferian-Jenkins, the Buccaneers rebounded quickly with Brate’s best game as a pro. He snatched five of his 10 targets for 46 yards and a pair of TDs against the Rams.
This season Brate has 11 receptions for 92 yards and two scores on 17 targets, five of which have come in the red zone, per NFLsavant.com. At 6'5", he’s another big target for Jameis Winston and should keep an active role near the end zone if you’re still on the hunt for a reliable TE, or at least someone you can put into a personal rotation. Winston will need all the help he can get against the Broncos in Week 4.
Week 4 Projection: 4 receptions, 39 yards
The Matchup Men
Matchup Bumps
Greg Olsen, CAR (at ATL)
Jordan Reed, WAS (vs. CLE)
Coby Fleener, NO (at SD)
Jason Witten, DAL (at SF)
Zach Miller, CHI (vs. DET)
Matchup Concerns
Jesse James, PIT (vs. KC)
Delanie Walker, TEN (at HOU)
Defenses
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This will typically focus on the best streaming options widely available in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues based on the matchups. This week is not great for streaming, as most of the best matchups belong to widely owned defenses.
Washington Redskins
Percent Owned: ESPN—2.6, Yahoo—7.0
The Redskins lost safety DeAngelo Hall to a torn ACL, and cornerback Bashaud Breeland has a high-ankle sprain. But they still get a look in Week 4 because they host the Browns.
Over the first three games, the Browns have started three different quarterbacks, including current starter and rookie Cody Kessler. During that span, they’ve allowed 10 sacks, thrown three interceptions and lost a fumble, which is why they rank ninth in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
Washington doesn't have a major weapon to worry about other than wide receiver Terrelle Pryor, so it should be one of the best streaming options this weekend.
Week 4 Projection: 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 15-18 points allowed
Kickers
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During the season, the kickers on the rise or those entering favorable matchups with a lot of points forecast will be featured in this section.
Dustin Hopkins, WAS
Percent Owned: ESPN—5.3, Yahoo—5.0
Through three games, Hopkins has hit all 11 of his field-goal attempts and all five of his extra points. While acknowledging his perfect season almost guarantees a miss in Week 4, I’m still advising to pick him up with a nice matchup against the Browns. Washington’s offense was better in Week 3 against the Giants, and it should be able to move the ball without much resistance against Cleveland’s beatable defense.
Josh Lambo, SD
Percent Owned: ESPN—2.9, Yahoo—6.0
Hopefully, Lambo can avoid the injury bug that seems to be going around San Diego’s locker room. He’s been a reliable fantasy option over the first three games, scoring at least eight points in all of them. He’s converted six of his seven field-goal attempts and nine of 10 extra points. The Chargers could be in for a high-scoring matchup with the visiting Saints and their shoddy defense, which should mean a busy afternoon for Lambo.
Camp's Corner
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Stashing can be dangerous, especially when roster spots are limited.
For players like Josh Gordon, it makes sense because you know he’s a talented player who will be back in the fold at the end of his four-game suspension. He’s not dealing with an injury and is rejoining the Browns when they clearly need his help after losing rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman to a broken hand.
When stashing gets tricky is when you’re dealing with injuries that have uncertain timetables. That’s why I’ve shied away from telling anyone to keep or pick up Dion Lewis. He’s eligible to come off the PUP list to play in Week 7, but the Patriots could push the decision to activate him back for weeks. And because they are notoriously quiet about their injuries, it adds to the risk.
I’d rather stash a player such as Kenneth Dixon knowing that the torn MCL he suffered in August wasn’t bad enough to put him on the PUP, which indicates he could be back as early as this week. He didn’t practice last week, so that could mean his debut won’t happen until Week 5.
That’s not a long wait for a player who has a legitimate chance to be Baltimore’s lead back since neither Justin Forsett nor Terrance West has done anything to lock down the top spot on the depth chart.
Unless you’re talking about a proven, top talent, waiting a month or more for a player to return while burning a spot on your bench is usually a bad idea, especially at running back. That’s why I have no problem cutting Jeremy Langford loose. He doesn’t have the track record that shows he’s worth keeping around, so don’t turn him into something he’s not.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Tuesday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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