For First Time in Nearly a Decade, NFL May Have No Rookie QB Starters in Week 1

Despite getting reps with starters Saturday, it looks as though Los Angeles Rams rookie quarterback Jared Goff has an uphill battle to climb in the quest to start Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers.

"Case [Keenum] is still clearly ahead," Rams head coach Jeff Fisher said Wednesday, per Jack Wang of the Los Angeles Daily News. "Jared's getting better."

But if he doesn't get even better soon, Goff might be a backup Week 1.

Ditto for No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz, who is buried on the Philadelphia Eagles depth chart and is dealing with a hairline rib fracture. And same for this draft's only other first-round quarterback, Paxton Lynch, who entered the weekend in the third spot on the Denver Broncos depth chart.

Second-round pick Christian Hackenberg finds himself behind at least Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith on the New York Jets depth chart, and possibly even behind Bryce Petty. And barring an injury—or in some cases, a series of injuries—nobody else from this year's draft class is a candidate to start Week 1.

• Jimmy Garoppolo will start the first four weeks of the season for the suspended Tom Brady, but third-rounder Jacoby Brissett is slated to be the backup for the New England Patriots during that stretch.
• Robert Griffin III is locked in as the starter for the Cleveland Browns, and veteran Josh McCown is probably still the top backup option—ahead of third-rounder Cody Kessler.
• Fourth-rounder Connor Cook remains far back of starter Derek Carr, and probably veteran Matt McGloin, on the Oakland Raiders depth chart.
• Fourth-rounder Dak Prescott might back up Tony Romo for the Dallas Cowboys, but that's his ceiling unless something happens to the veteran starter.
• Fourth-rounder Cardale Jones is clearly far behind Tyrod Taylor and probably EJ Manuel on the Buffalo Bills depth chart.

Beyond that, you're looking at late-round picks such as Kevin Hogan (deep on the Kansas City Chiefs depth chart), Nate Sudfeld (third on the Washington Redskins depth chart), Jake Rudock (third on the Detroit Lions depth chart), Brandon Allen (at least third on the Jacksonville Jaguars depth chart), Jeff Driskel (third or fourth on the 49ers depth chart) and Brandon Doughty (third or fourth on the Miami Dolphins depth chart). And even if several of those starters were to go down, veterans would probably be signed to make emergency early-season starts.

So if Keenum doesn't blow it and Garoppolo and Romo stay healthy, and if either Mark Sanchez or Trevor Siemian of the Broncos and either Sam Bradford or Chase Daniel of the Eagles stay healthy, it doesn't look as though we'll have a rookie quarterback starting Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season.

How rare is that these days? Well, at least one rookie has started at quarterback in Week 1 in eight consecutive seasons. And at least one rookie has started every single week, period, since Week 11 of the 2007 season.

We've had 143 consecutive weeks with at least one rookie starter, dating back nearly nine years.

Year	QB	QB	QB	QB	QB
2008	Flacco	Ryan
2009	Sanchez	Stafford
2010	Bradford
2011	Dalton	Newton
2012	Griffin	Luck	Tannehill	Weeden	Wilson
2013	Manuel	Smith
2014	Carr
2015	Mariota	Winston
2016	?

The league has run out of patience. Quarterbacks are rarely groomed at the NFL level the way they were in the past. Supposed franchise quarterbacks of the future don't exist, as there is only room for franchise quarterbacks of now. If you're holding a clipboard, it usually means you're on the way down, not up.

But this particular year may be an exception, and three potential explanations come to mind.

1. A lot of franchise quarterbacks have been drafted in recent years.

From 1988 to 2010, an average of 2.1 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round each year. But since then, that number has increased by 33 percent to 2.8. And seven of the 10 quarterbacks taken in Round 1 from 2012 to 2015 remain NFL starters (sorry, Manuel, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel).

2. Meanwhile, old quarterbacks aren't retiring.

Yes, Peyton Manning finally stepped aside, but a 39-year-old Brady continues to take the field, as do Drew Brees (37), Carson Palmer (36), Romo (36), Eli Manning (35), Philip Rivers (34), Ben Roethlisberger (34), Fitzpatrick (33) and Jay Cutler (33).

In other words, the supply-and-demand dynamics aren't quite as out of whack now as they were in years past, which means fewer teams are forced to fill holes under center via the draft. The Broncos were the only team that had to do that this offseason, but they weren't in a position to draft a quarterback who was ready to start.

3. This year's draft class lacks ready-to-start quarterbacks.

Goff is probably the only one, with Wentz and Lynch seen as raw products that will require some molding.

Now, Goff was a three-year starter at California, and unlike Wentz and Lynch, he has just one quarterback above him on the depth chart. He could still unseat Keenum between now and Sept. 12, when the Rams kick off the season in San Francisco.

But if that doesn't happen, we could go an entire weekend without seeing a rookie quarterback for the first time in nearly a decade. And that's a bit of a shame, because it's a lot of fun watching young quarterbacks and imagining just how far they might go.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon