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Fantasy Football 2016: Matt Camp's Post-Preseason Week 3 Big Board

Matt CampAug 31, 2016

Did you draft your fantasy football team yet? No? Good job.

With most of the preseason out of the way and a lot of the news that comes with it, you should have a much better idea about the fantasy landscape. Now that you're armed with that information, you can draft with a lot more confidence.

This final Big Board article is written with a lot more confidence than the initial piece from the beginning of the month. At that time, I wasn't high on Derrick Henry and thought Tyler Eifert would be a top-five tight end. My opinions of both players have changed drastically because I got to watch Henry and learned that Eifert would likely miss multiple games to start the season.

Even as I updated my projections in preparation for this final edition, we learned about Teddy Bridgewater's horrific knee injury among other tidbits around the league that caused a ripple effect in the fantasy world. 

You have just over a week to conduct your draft and set your lineups before the Carolina Panthers host the Denver Broncos in the season opener next Thursday. While this will be my last preseason Big Board article update, I will provide additional rankings updates here if significant news goes down in the next week. 

We'll take a look at who's made the biggest moves since last week, values and overvalues based on average draft position (ADP) and some sleepers. My rankings in this article are for points-per-reception (PPR) leagues, but you can find non-PPR rankings here.

Top 100: Stick with the Best

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The Arizona Cardinals have a fantasy-friendly offense led by Carson Palmer.
The Arizona Cardinals have a fantasy-friendly offense led by Carson Palmer.

If I'm stuck between two players, one of my top tiebreakers is determining who is in the better situation. Is he sharing the ball with two other running backs or is he on a team with weapons everywhere? Does he have a good quarterback or a bad quarterback? Do I trust his coach? Will his offense be on the field a lot because the team has a poor defense? Are the key performers getting the majority of the touches?

Those are some of the major questions I ponder when looking at the best fantasy situations. So with that, I give you teams I like the most and the ones I'd try to avoid.

Fantasy-Friendly Teams

Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay Packers

New Orleans Saints

Pittsburgh Steelers

New York Giants

Detroit Lions

Oakland Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals

Teams I'd Like to Avoid (if possible)

Minnesota Vikings (besides Adrian Peterson)

Philadelphia Eagles

San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles Rams (besides Todd Gurley)

Chicago Bears


2016 Top 100 PPR Draft Rankings

1Antonio Brown PIT (8)WR00
2Julio Jones ATL (11)WR00
3Odell Beckham Jr. NYG (8)WR00
4A.J. Green CIN (9)WR+2+3
5David Johnson ARI (9)RB-10
6DeAndre Hopkins HOU (9)WR+10
7Todd Gurley LA (8)RB-2-3
8Ezekiel Elliott DAL (7)RB+1+3
9Lamar Miller HOU (9)RB+1+3
10Brandin Cooks NO (5)WR+13+13
11Brandon Marshall NYJ (11)WR+4+6
12Allen Robinson JAC (5)WR0-2
13Adrian Peterson MIN (6)RB-2-5
14Le'Veon Bell PIT (8)RB+30
15Rob Gronkowski NE (9)TE-7-2
16T.Y. Hilton IND (10)WR+11+11
17Keenan Allen SD (11)WR-4-2
18Dez Bryant DAL (7)WR-4-9
19Eddie Lacy GB (4)RB+7+7
20Amari Cooper OAK (10)WR+4+2
21Mark Ingram NO (5)RB0+3
22Devonta Freeman ATL (11)RB-6-6
23Golden Tate DET (10)WR+15+12
24Jordy Nelson GB (4)WR-5-6
25C.J. Anderson DEN (11)RB+7+11
26Carlos Hyde SF (8)RB+15+15
27Mike Evans TB (6)WR-9-7
28Doug Martin TB (6)RB0+3
29LeSean McCoy BUF (10)RB-4-1
30Thomas Rawls SEA (5)RB+21+10
31Randall Cobb GB (4)WR+2+2
32Alshon Jeffery CHI (9)WR-12-11
33Jeremy Maclin KC (5)WR+3+4
34Demaryius Thomas DEN (11)WR-4-9
35Sammy Watkins BUF (10)WR-4-6
36Danny Woodhead SD (11)RB+10+18
37Jamaal Charles KC (5)RB-15-18
38Donte Moncrief IND (10)WR+7+9
39Jeremy Hill CIN (9)RB+22+29
40Aaron Rodgers GB (4)QB-1+4
41Cam Newton CAR (7)QB-6-3
42Andrew Luck IND (10)QB+10+10
43Julian Edelman NE (9)WR-9-11
44Matt Forte NYJ (11)RB-2-2
45Jarvis Landry MIA (8)WR-16-15
46Eric Decker NYJ (11)WR-30
47Jordan Reed WAS (9)TE-10-13
48Russell Wilson SEA (5)QB-1+8
49Travis Kelce KC (5)TE+8+9
50Larry Fitzgerald ARI (9)WR+30
51Latavius Murray OAK (10)RB-11-8
52Matt Jones WAS (9)RB+27+13
53Doug Baldwin SEA (5)WR-4-5
54Marvin Jones DET (10)WR+11+19
55Giovani Bernard CIN (9)RB-5+4
56Greg Olsen CAR (7)TE-12-11
57Devante Parker MIA (8)WR+29+13
58Kelvin Benjamin CAR (7)WR0-19
59John Brown ARI (9)WR+10+2
60Tyler Lockett SEA (5)WR+13+11
61Drew Brees NO (5)QB-2+8
62Melvin Gordon SD (11)RB+6+13
63DeMarco Murray TEN (13)RB-15-14
64Ryan Mathews PHI (4)RB-1-2
65Zach Ertz PHI (4)TE+19+18
66Michael Floyd ARI (9)WR-10-15
67Frank Gore IND (10)RB0+10
68Charles Sims TB (6)RB+12+20
69Duke Johnson CLE (13)RB-14-12
70Ben Roethlisberger PIT (8)QB+2+4
71Emmanuel Sanders DEN (11)WR-7-11
72Delanie Walker TEN (13)TE-12-9
73James White NE (9)RB+44+70
74Theo Riddick DET (10)RB+14+24
75Michael Crabtree OAK (10)WR-5+1
76Ameer Abdullah DET (10)RB+1+5
77Carson Palmer ARI (9)QB-2+5
78Kevin White CHI (9)WR+18+2
79Josh Gordon CLE (13)WR+6+11
80Allen Hurns JAC (5)WR-4-14
81Rashad Jennings NYG (8)RB-3+5
82Jeremy Langford CHI (9)RB-20-27
83Eli Manning NYG (8)QB-1+14
84Tevin Coleman ATL (11)RB+38+25
85Derrick Henry TEN (13)RB+23+17
86Gary Barnidge CLE (13)TE-3+8
87Julius Thomas JAC (5)TE+4+4
88Coby Fleener NO (5)TE-17-24
89Stefon Diggs MIN (6)WR+10+11
90Jordan Matthews PHI (4)WR-36-37
91DeSean Jackson WAS (9)WR-10-4
92Sterling Shepard NYG (8)WR+3+1
93Chris Ivory JAC (5)RB-1-4
94Arian Foster MIA (8)RB-20-27
95T.J. Yeldon JAC (5)RB-80
96Matthew Stafford DET (10)QB+22+38
97Derek Carr OAK (10)QB+18+10
98Blake Bortles JAC (5)QB-8-6
99Tom Brady NE (9)QB-2-21
100Markus Wheaton PIT (8)WR+21+18
     

Quarterbacks: Patience Wins

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Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are ready to put last season behind them.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are ready to put last season behind them.

Notable Changes in Rankings 

2. Cam Newton, CAR (up one spot)

3. Andrew Luck, IND (down one spot) 

This has nothing to do with Newton and everything to do with the Indianapolis offensive line. They dodged a bullet when left guard Jack Mewhort's knee injury turned out to be a two-to-four-week timetable, according to owner Jim Irsay, instead of a torn ACL that would have ended his season. However, as a whole, the unit is one of the worst entering the season, and they allowed Luck to be sacked three times in the third preseason game. 

The Colts must make an effort to get the ball out quickly to keep Luck out of harm's way, and they can do that using three-wide receiver sets with T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett. However, the protection issues could limit Luck's downfield passing.

18. Kirk Cousins, WAS (up four spots)

23. Matt Ryan, ATL (down five spots)

I'm still not as high on Cousins as most, but after watching both him and Ryan play in the preseason, it became apparent who I'd rather have on my fantasy team. Cousins doesn't have supreme talent, but he's smart and knows how to protect the football without trying to do to much.

Ryan's lack of big-time talent has been masked by his receiving corps over the years, although his issues have been on display a lot more since Roddy White fell off and eventually left the team. Yes, he still has Julio Jones, but that doesn't make up for his poor decision-making. I want nothing to do with Ryan.

26. Shaun Hill, MIN (previously unranked)

27. Dak Prescott, DAL (previously unranked) 

The Vikings and Cowboys suffered big blows at the QB position over the last week. This is just an update of how I'm treating the new starters. Hill is my lowest-ranked QB projected to play the entire season, so there's obviously some concern about the Vikings' passing attack with him under center. 

Prescott is coming off an impressive preseason and will likely start roughly half of Dallas' games. He'd be ranked higher, but the Cowboys are holding out hope Romo will be back around the midway point of the season. Unless you're in a two-QB or bigger league (14-16 teams), don't bother with Prescott.

Targets Based on Value

Carson Palmer, ARI

My Ranking: QB7 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 82.5, QB8

This Week's ADP: 83.3, QB8

Palmer remains in the sweet spot of those waiting on a QB. He's capable of big numbers in any given week, but he seems to stay below the radar of fantasy owners looking to make a big splash.

Eli Manning, NYG

My Ranking: QB8 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 96.3, QB10

This Week's ADP: 96.3, QB10

The Giants offense looked bad during the preseason, so some are worried, but Manning has been around long enough to shake that off and perform well in the regular season. I almost like that some are concerned since it might shy them away from taking him.

My Ranking: QB9 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 140.5, QB17

This Week's ADP: 139.5, QB17

Another week on the rise for Stafford, and based on drafts I've taken part in, he's going even earlier than this. Detroit's ground game looks like a mess, but no one can doubt how well their passing attack has performed.

Overvalues Based on ADP vs. Ranking

Kirk Cousins, WAS

My Ranking: QB18 (up four spots)

Last Week's ADP: 126.8, QB13

This Week's ADP: 123.3, QB13

I moved Cousins up, but not into this low-end starter level. Cousins is a solid QB, but if Washington's defense shows the improvement I expect, he won't have to throw it as much. I just don't see enough volume for Cousins to be a reliable, every-week fantasy starter.

Potential Sleepers

Joe Flacco, BAL

My Ranking: QB13 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 195.7, QB23

This Week's ADP: 197.3, QB23

No one has any interest in drafting Flacco. He's never been fantasy-relevant for an entire season and is coming off a torn ACL. However, he looked comfortable in his first action of the preseason in the third game and does have the benefit of playing for a fantasy-friendly offensive coordinator in Marc Trestman. He's a no-risk, high-reward pick or waiver-wire addition.

2016 Quarterback Draft Rankings

1Aaron Rodgers GB (4)+1+1
2Cam Newton CAR (7)-1-1
3Andrew Luck IND (10)+1+1
4Russell Wilson SEA (5)-1-1
5Drew Brees NO (5)00
6Ben Roethlisberger PIT (8)00
7Carson Palmer ARI (9)00
8Eli Manning NYG (8)0+1
9Matthew Stafford DET (10)+6+8
10Derek Carr OAK (10)+4+2
11Blake Bortles JAC (5)-2-1
12Tom Brady NE (9)-1-4
13Joe Flacco BAL (8)+10+13
14Jameis Winston TB (6)+2+2
15Philip Rivers SD (11)-5-4
16Andy Dalton CIN (9)+1-1
17Tyrod Taylor BUF (10)-5-3
18Kirk Cousins WAS (9)-5-5
19Ryan Tannehill MIA (8)+1+3
20Marcus Mariota TEN (13)-2-2
21Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ (11)0+3
22Jay Cutler CHI (9)0+6
23Matt Ryan ATL (11)-4-3
24Alex Smith KC (5)+2+1
25Brock Osweiler HOU (9)+3-2
26Shaun Hill MIN (6)+7N/A  
27Dak Prescott DAL (7)0-6
28Sam Bradford PHI (4)+1+2
29Robert Griffin CLE (13)-4-2
30Trevor Siemian DEN (11)+2+6
31Blaine Gabbert SF (8)+3+3
32Tony Romo DAL (7)-8-13
33Carson Wentz PHI (4)+90
34Jared Goff LA (8)+1-5
35Colin Kaepernick SF (8)-5-4
36Case Keenum LA (8)+7N/A  
37Josh McCown CLE (13)+3N/A 
38Jimmy Garoppolo NE (9)0-3
39Paxton Lynch DEN (11)+2-7

Running Backs: Invest Wisely

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Expect David Johnson to dominate right away.
Expect David Johnson to dominate right away.

Notable Changes in Rankings 

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (up one spot)

4. Lamar Miller, HOU (down one spot)

5. Adrian Peterson, MIN (no change) 

Before I address the shift, you need to know that the difference between Elliott and Peterson is less than five fantasy points. There's no reason to have a major gap between these three, so I don't, but I'll explain how I differentiated to come up with these rankings. 

I was contemplating moving Elliott to No. 3 for a little while, so when he made his preseason debut last week coming off a minor hamstring injury and looked great, I had enough reason right there to move him up. The decision became even easier when the Texans lost starting center Nick Martin for the season due to ankle surgery. Their offensive line was already beat up with both tackles Duane Brown (quad) and Derek Newton (hamstring) nursing injuries. 

Peterson won't be moving anywhere since I already had him pegged to lead the league with 287 carries, and I doubt the plans have drastically changed for him with Shaun Hill under center. Peterson was always going to be the focal point of the Vikings offense, and that's not changing now.

29. Theo Riddick, DET (down one spot)

30. Ameer Abdullah, DET (down three spots) 

Abdullah made his preseason debut in the third week after sitting out the first two games with a shoulder injury. Much like we saw from Riddick earlier in the preseason, the Lions offensive line provided no room to run, so Abdullah was bottled up. He can pick up yards with his speed running east-west, but he needs help going north-south, which might be hard to come by with this offensive line.

34. Derrick Henry, TEN (up five spots)

36. Arian Foster, MIA (down five spots)

Henry's stock has taken a big jump since the start of the preseason, and it's apparent the Titans need to get him on the field almost as much, if not as much as DeMarco Murray. In their run-first offense, he should be busy and deserves those opportunities. 

If you were fooled by Foster's third preseason game highlights of a short touchdown and a 16-yard catch-and-run, then you probably ignored how slow he looked rushing for 10 yards on five carries. I'm already worried enough about Foster staying healthy, but his level of play has dropped off even more than I expected. He might know how to play the position, but that doesn't make up for how much he's slowed down.

49. Christine Michael, SEA (up 16 spots) 

A big lesson I've learned from 2015 is to have an open mind. If a player is performing well above or below expectations on a regular basis, I'm accepting that as a positive or negative change in their value. 

Michael was a major bust for the first three years of his career, but in his second stint in Seattle, something has clicked. He's finally harnessing the raw talent he's always had and is turning that into real production. In the absence of Thomas Rawls, Michael has taken advantage of the spotlight put on him with a great preseason. I still believe Rawls will be the clear lead back, but Michael has earned a role and is a viable handcuff if Rawls goes down again.

Targets Based on Value 

My Ranking: RB7 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 26, RB10

This Week's ADP: 26.8, RB10

Lacy's strong preseason wasn't enough to move him higher than this exact spot he's been at for the last two weeks, so he remains a better value than many realize as a third-round pick in 12-team leagues.

Danny Woodhead, SD

My Ranking: RB15 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 52, RB20

This Week's ADP: 54.8, RB19

Woodhead is creeping up the positional ADP, but not overall. I suspect Melvin Gordon's excellent showing in the third preseason game will present yet another reason for those in your league to look elsewhere for a RB. You can take advantage of their foolishness.

Jeremy Hill, CIN

My Ranking: RB17 (up one spot)

Last Week's ADP: new addition to values

This Week's ADP: 66.5, RB26

Hill may be one of the best values in fantasy football regardless of position. He looks like a rejuvenated player this preseason and a far cry from the unconfident back with a fumbling problem we saw in 2015. Based on his ADP, too many seem to forget Hill is entering his third season and was great as a rookie. The Bengals look ready to put the ball back in his hands as an important part of their offense once again.

Derrick Henry, TEN

My Ranking: RB34 (up five spots)

Last Week's ADP: new addition to values

This Week's ADP: 103.3, RB39

Henry has earned nothing but praise for his play in the preseason, and while his ADP suggests he's somewhat buried, I've seen him go much higher than that, so don't wait too long to scoop him up.

Overvalues Based on ADP vs. Ranking 

My Ranking: RB16 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 19, RB8

This Week's ADP: 18.3, RB8

I've been trying to warn everyone for the better part of two months that Charles was being overdrafted by at least a round and that you cannot assume he'll just jump right back into the top-10 RB conversation. I watched my Twitter feed freak out when ESPN.com's Adam Teicher reported Tuesday that Charles is behind schedule in his recovery from a second torn ACL and that he hasn't regained the role of full-time feature back. 

The Chiefs are taking their time with Charles because they can lean on Spencer Ware, and to a lesser extent, Charcandrick West. I expect this news to wreak havoc on drafts taking place over the next week, but I'm not making any change to Charles' projections or ranking since I already built this regression in to his numbers.

Jeremy Langford, CHI

My Ranking: RB32 (up one spot)

Last Week's ADP: 65, RB25

This Week's ADP: 57.0, RB20

I'm a little confused as to why Langford is going off the board 20 picks ahead of Melvin Gordon. Sure, Gordon had a bad rookie season, but what exactly did Langford do to warrant a top-60 pick? John Fox didn't give 60 percent of the carries to DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart in Carolina. Is he going to buck that trend with a less-talented player in Langford? This excitement over a decent player is out of control. 

Arian Foster, MIA

My Ranking: RB36

Last Week's ADP: new addition to overvalues

This Week's ADP: 66.3, RB25

As you read above, Foster isn't the same player that dominated fantasy football a few years ago, but his name value carries a lot of weight. Don't be fooled. Let someone else take Foster and wonder what happened to the player of old.

Potential Sleepers 

Tevin Coleman, ATL

My Ranking: RB33 (up one spot)

Last Week's ADP: 103, RB40

This Week's ADP: 110.0, RB42

Throughout the preseason, Coleman and Devonta Freeman have worked in a rotation of sorts with the first-team offense. The struggles of Matt Ryan might give the Falcons even more reason to lean on their backfield, and that could mean more carries for Coleman.

Spencer Ware, KC

My Ranking: RB53 (up two spots)

Last Week's ADP: new addition to sleepers

This Week's ADP: 184.5, RB61

Ware has been ignored in drafts based on his ADP, which is actually 16 spots lower than Charcandrick West. Ware is the better option in short-yardage and goal-line situations and could keep that role even when Charles is fully healthy and comfortable. Unfortunately, the secret is out on Ware, so you can ignore this ADP. I will likely move him up more over the next week, so don't be afraid to be aggressive.

2016 Running Back PPR Draft Rankings

1David Johnson ARI (9)0+1
2Todd Gurley LA (8)0-1
3Ezekiel Elliott DAL (7)0+1
4Lamar Miller HOU (9)+1+1
5Adrian Peterson MIN (6)-1-2
6Le'Veon Bell PIT (8)00
7Eddie Lacy GB (4)+4+3
8Mark Ingram NO (5)+1+1
9Devonta Freeman ATL (11)-3-2
10C.J. Anderson DEN (11)+3+3
11Carlos Hyde SF (8)+3+6
12Doug Martin TB (6)00
13LeSean McCoy BUF (10)-3-3
14Thomas Rawls SEA (5)+40
15Danny Woodhead SD (11)+2+5
16Jamaal Charles KC (5)-9-8
17Jeremy Hill CIN (9)+6+10
18Matt Forte NYJ (11)-2-2
19Latavius Murray OAK (10)-4-4
20Matt Jones WAS (9)+9+6
21Giovani Bernard CIN (9)-1+2
22Melvin Gordon SD (11)+5+5
23DeMarco Murray TEN (13)-5-5
24Ryan Mathews PHI (4)-20
25Frank Gore IND (10)+1+5
26Charles Sims TB (6)+6+8
27Duke Johnson CLE (13)-6-7
28James White NE (9)+11+26
29Theo Riddick DET (10)+4+9
30Ameer Abdullah DET (10)0+1
31Rashad Jennings NYG (8)0+2
32Jeremy Langford CHI (9)-8-11
33Tevin Coleman ATL (11)+11+9
34Derrick Henry TEN (13)+7+6
35Chris Ivory JAC (5)00
36Arian Foster MIA (8)-8-10
37T.J. Yeldon JAC (5)-3-1
38Shane Vereen NYG (8)+9+9
39Jonathan Stewart CAR (7)-14-11
40Isaiah Crowell CLE (13)+2+3
41Darren Sproles PHI (4)+4+4
42Jay Ajayi MIA (8)-2-3
43Justin Forsett BAL (8)-5-6
44Bilal Powell NYJ (11)-8-3
45Jerick McKinnon MIN (6)+4+5
46LeGarrette Blount NE (9)-3-2
47Chris Thompson WAS (9)+3+13
48DeAndre Washington OAK (10)0+1
49Christine Michael SEA (5)+2+2
50Shaun Draughn SF (8)+8+20
51James Starks GB (4)+4+7
52Andre Ellington ARI (9)+23+22
53Spencer Ware KC (5)+4+6
54Cameron Artis-Payne CAR (7)+27+23
55Terrance West BAL (8)+6+12
56Jordan Howard CHI (9)+3+5
57DeAngelo Williams PIT (8)-20-25
58Devontae Booker DEN (11)-2-5
59Dion Lewis NE (9)-13-34
60Tim Hightower NO (5)+4+8
61Alfred Morris DAL (7)+12-4
62Josh Ferguson IND (10)+14+2
63Javorius Allen BAL (8)-9-15
64Charcandrick West KC (5)+8-8
65Benny Cunningham LA (8)+15+18
66Wendell Smallwood PHI (4)0-1
67Kenneth Dixon BAL (8)-14-15
68Chris Johnson ARI (9)+2-6
69Khiry Robinson NYJ (11)+17+24
70Dexter McCluster TEN (13)+18+30
71Jonathan Williams BUF (10)+3+9
72Reggie Bush BUF (10)-1+14
73Matt Asiata MIN (6)+38N/A  
74Zach Zenner DET (10)+13+10
75Alfred Blue HOU (9)+20+21
76Robert Kelley WAS (9)+1N/A  
77Ka'Deem Carey CHI (9)+6+5
78Fozzy Whittaker CAR (7)+34N/A  
79Mike Gillislee BUF (10)-10+2
80Ronnie Hillman DEN (11)-13-11
81Tyler Ervin HOU (9)+8+7
82Alex Collins SEA (5)+26-6
83Kenyan Drake MIA (8)-4-12
84Mike Davis SF (8)+13N/A 
85Robert Turbin IND (10)-3+4
86Tyler Gaffney NE (9)-2-8
87Darren McFadden DAL (7)-24-24
88C.J. Prosise SEA (5)-36-42
89C.J. Spiller NO (5)-29-17
90Lance Dunbar DAL (7)-25-15
91Kenjon Barner PHI (4)-23-12
92Paul Perkins NYG (8)-14-26
 

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Wide Receivers: Your Foundation Starts Here

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Antonio Brown leads a deep group of wide receivers at the top.
Antonio Brown leads a deep group of wide receivers at the top.

Notable Changes in Rankings 

9. T.Y. Hilton, IND (up one spot)

10. Keenan Allen, SD (up one spot)

11. Dez Bryant, DAL (down two spots) 

I had already built in the possibility of a Tony Romo injury into Bryant's projections, so I didn't have to move him down much, although I didn't expect Romo to miss half the season. I know Dak Prescott has impressed in the preseason, but he's not Romo, and expecting him to be anywhere near that same level just isn't fair.

19. Demaryius Thomas, DEN (down two spots) 

Coming into the preseason, I had people ask me if Thomas was being undervalued with the belief being he played through injury and a drop-off in quarterback play last season. I entertained the thought until I watched this year's QB battle unfold. The Broncos named Trevor Siemian their starter over Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch, meaning they will replace Peyton Manning with a 2015 seventh-round pick. 

That's more of an indictment of Sanchez than anything else. It's hard to get excited about Thomas when Siemian was merely passable in the preseason. Don't underrate how far Manning's football IQ took him and this team last year. There are plenty of other WRs in better situations with better QBs than what Thomas has to deal with in Siemian.

30. John Brown, ARI (down five spots) 

I assume nothing when it comes to concussions. Brown dealt with the last effects of his concussion for weeks, including headaches, before getting clearance on Tuesday, as head coach Bruce Arians told Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. Arians wasn't sure if Brown would play in the final preseason game, which is noteworthy since Brown hasn't played in any preseason games. He may need some time to get acclimated, so moving him down made sense.

Targets Based on Value 

Brandin Cooks, NO

My Ranking: WR6 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 23, WR14

This Week's ADP: 24.0, WR14

It's been a quiet preseason for Cooks, which may explain the lack of movement in his ADP. He's still primed for a big year if he continues to improve, as he's done over his first two seasons.

T.Y. Hilton, IND

My Ranking: WR9 (up one spot)

Last Week's ADP: 27, WR16

This Week's ADP: 27.3, WR16

I have concerns about the Colts offensive line, but I hope the team will adjust accordingly with Hilton playing the biggest role in the passing game with a healthy Andrew Luck.

Golden Tate, DET

My Ranking: WR13 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 35, WR21

This Week's ADP: 36.0, WR21

Marvin Jones, DET

My Ranking, WR27 (up three spots)

Last Week's ADP: 80, WR37

This Week's ADP: 73.5, WR35

I'm including both Tate and Jones as targets because I feel that strongly about Detroit's passing attack. Matthew Stafford has picked up right where he left off last season, and in addition to already having a connection with Tate, he's clearly developing one with Jones. You want a piece of this passing game.

Overvalues Based on Rankings vs. ADP

My Ranking: WR14 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 16, WR9

This Week's ADP: 17.8, WR10

Nelson has already experienced complications in his recovery that slowed him down at the start of August, and he is entering his eighth season at age 31, so I don't think it's fair to assume he'll be a rock-solid WR1 right away. There's enough talent at the top of the WR position to look elsewhere if you have to draft Nelson that high to get him.

Demaryius Thomas, DEN

My Ranking: WR19 (down two spots)

Last Week's ADP: new addition to overvalues

This Week's ADP: 26.0, WR15

I need a bigger sample size out of Siemian to draft Thomas at his current ADP. Much like Nelson, it's easier to find someone else in a similar tier with fewer concerns.

Kelvin Benjamin, CAR

My Ranking: WR29 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 36, WR22

This Week's ADP: 38.3, WR23

Benjamin has way too much to prove to justify a top-40 pick, but at least his ADP is slipping.

Jordan Matthews, PHI

My Ranking: WR39 (down one spot)

Last Week's ADP: 54, WR28

This Week's ADP: 53, WR28

Matthews has been out since August 8 with a knee injury, but he returned to practice on Monday, according to Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He might be the top WR in this offense, but that doesn't mean the same as it did under Chip Kelly. This won't be the same high-volume attack as last year, and Matthews needed that volume (127 targets) to rack up 85 receptions.

Potential Sleepers 

Tajae Sharpe, TEN

My Ranking: WR53 (up 11 spots)

Last Week's ADP: 200-plus, WR75

This Week's ADP: 172.8, WR60

Sharpe has worked as a starter in the preseason and may enter the regular season as the top WR for the Titans. It's rare to get someone in that position so late in drafts, but in the case of Sharpe, he's risen quickly from a group of mostly veterans.

Breshad Perriman, BAL

My Ranking: WR59 (down one spot)

Last Week's ADP: new addition to sleepers

This Week's ADP: 200-plus, WR76

Many aren't willing to take a shot on Perriman, which is understandable since his first NFL game action comes in Thursday's preseason finale. With his knee issues behind him, Perriman is in line to play in Week 1. The 2015 first-round pick could make a big impact if he can catch up quickly.

Will Fuller, HOU

My Ranking: WR66 (up three spots)

Last Week's ADP: new addition to sleepers

This Week's ADP: 198.8, WR67

Fuller looks like he'll open the season as a starter opposite DeAndre Hopkins. He needs to improve his hands, but his big-play ability has been on display in the preseason.

2016 Wide Receiver PPR Draft Rankings

1Antonio Brown PIT (8)00
2Julio Jones ATL (11)00
3Odell Beckham Jr. NYG (8)00
4A.J. Green CIN (9)0+1
5DeAndre Hopkins HOU (9)0-1
6Brandin Cooks NO (5)+7+8
7Brandon Marshall NYJ (11)+2+2
8Allen Robinson JAC (5)-1-1
9T.Y. Hilton IND (10)+6+7
10Keenan Allen SD (11)-2-2
11Dez Bryant DAL (7)-5-5
12Amari Cooper OAK (10)+2+1
13Golden Tate DET (10)+9+8
14Jordy Nelson GB (4)-3-4
15Mike Evans TB (6)-5-4
16Randall Cobb GB (4)+3+4
17Alshon Jeffery CHI (9)-5-5
18Jeremy Maclin KC (5)+2+4
19Demaryius Thomas DEN (11)-1-4
20Sammy Watkins BUF (10)-4-3
21Donte Moncrief IND (10)+3+4
22Julian Edelman NE (9)-1-3
23Jarvis Landry MIA (8)-6-5
24Eric Decker NYJ (11)-10
25Larry Fitzgerald ARI (9)+1+2
26Doug Baldwin SEA (5)-10
27Marvin Jones DET (10)+4+8
28DeVante Parker MIA (8)+9+6
29Kelvin Benjamin CAR (7)0-6
30John Brown ARI (9)+2+1
31Tyler Lockett SEA (5)+3+2
32Michael Floyd ARI (9)-4-3
33Emmanuel Sanders DEN (11)-3-3
34Michael Crabtree OAK (10)-1+2
35Kevin White CHI (9)+6+2
36Josh Gordon CLE (13)+2+3
37Allen Hurns JAC (5)-2-5
38Stefon Diggs MIN (6)+5+4
39Jordan Matthews PHI (4)-12-11
40DeSean Jackson WAS (9)-4-2
41Sterling Shepard NYG (8)-2-1
42Markus Wheaton PIT (8)+8+5
43Devin Funchess CAR (7)+6+8
44Vincent Jackson TB (6)+2+8
45Willie Snead NO (5)-5-4
46Pierre Garcon WAS (9)+14+20
47Tavon Austin LA (8)-3+1
48Travis Benjamin SD (11)0-2
49Rishard Matthews TEN (13)+5+7
50Chris Hogan NE (9)+13+20
51Steve Smith BAL (8)+1+4
52Corey Coleman CLE (13)-10-9
53Tajae Sharpe TEN (13)+3+8
54Phillip Dorsett IND (10)+1+3
55Kamar Aiken BAL (8)-10-10
56Michael Thomas NO (5)-3-6
57Tyler Boyd CIN (9)+1+1
58Anquan Boldin DET (10)+8+9
59Breshad Perriman BAL (8)+17+17
60Torrey Smith SF (8)-13-16
61Mohamed Sanu ATL (11)-10-8
62Robert Woods BUF (10)+12+19
63Dorial Green-Beckham PHI (4)-2-4
64Laquon Treadwell MIN (6)-7-15
65Kenny Stills MIA (8)+4+22
66Will Fuller HOU (9)-1+2
67Terrance Williams DAL (7)+3+7
68Cole Beasley DAL (7)+41+33
69Seth Roberts OAK (10)+21+20
70Kenny Britt LA (8)+15+26
71Brandon LaFell CIN (9)+9+9
72Justin Hardy ATL (11)+29+10
73Mike Wallace BAL (8)-14-4
74James Jones SD (11)+17+29
75Jermaine Kearse SEA (5)+4+11
76Danny Amendola NE (9)+6+15
77Andrew Hawkins CLE (13)+48N/A 
78Jarius Wright MIN (6)+45N/A  
79Nelson Agholor PHI (4)-7-19
80Eddie Royal CHI (9)+8+30
81Eli Rogers PIT (8)+11+14
82Ted Ginn CAR (7)-7-9
83Josh Doctson WAS (9)-15-11
84Jeremy Kerley SF (8)+2N/A  
85Sammie Coates PIT (8)-21-31
86Chris Conley KC (5)+17+11
87Davante Adams GB (4)-14-8
88Braxton Miller HOU (9)+16+5
89Albert Wilson KC (5)+29N/A  
90Quincy Enunwa NYJ (11)+29N/A  
91Ryan Grant WAS (9)+53N/A  
92Kendall Wright TEN (13)-25-28
93Philly Brown CAR (7)+37N/A  
94Rashad Greene JAC (5)+28N/A  
95Marquise Goodwin BUF (10)+54N/A  
96Brian Quick LA (8)0N/A  
97Jaelen Strong HOU (9)-10-35
98Pharoh Cooper LA (8)+4-4
99Jared Abbrederis GB (4)+7N/A  

TIght Ends: Now or Later?

5 of 6
If you want Rob Gronkowski on your team, it'll cost you.
If you want Rob Gronkowski on your team, it'll cost you.

Notable Changes in Rankings 

10. Tyler Eifert, CIN (down three spots) 

Last week, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported Eifert is aiming to return from his ankle injury between Weeks 4 and 6, with the target being Week 4. That's longer than originally expected, and as a result, he had to move down the rankings. The Bengals will miss his presence, especially in the red zone.

Targets Based on Value

Zach Ertz, PHI

My Ranking: TE5 (no change)

Last Week's ADP: 87, TE9

This Week's ADP: 87.0, TE7

Maybe it's Eifert's injury or Jordan Matthews just getting back from a knee issue, but we're finally seeing Ertz get the bump he deserves. I'm a little higher on him that most, so the value remains, as I expect him to be the top receiver for the Eagles.

Overvalues Based on Rankings vs. ADP

Coby Fleener, NO

My Ranking: TE9 (down one spot)

Last Week's ADP: 64, TE6

This Week's ADP: 64.3, TE6

I'm still not sure why Fleener's ADP is so high. That's a sixth-round pick in a 12-team league, which is a reach for a player who's never finished that high at the position. According to Larry Holder of the Times-Picayune, Fleener hasn't been reliable enough catching passes and isn't on the same page as Drew Brees on some routes. Maybe that will curb some of the enthusiasm.

My Ranking: TE18 (down one spot)

Last Week's ADP: 110, TE12

This Week's ADPL 115.3, TE13

It's taken some time, but Graham has finally fallen behind Martellus Bennett based on ADP. It's only a one-spot difference, yet that shows the concern for Graham's knee injury. He has yet to play in the preseason and isn't a lock for Week 1.

Potential Sleepers

Jared Cook, GB

My Ranking: TE17 (up seven spots)

Last Week's ADP: new addition to sleepers

This Week's ADP: 167.8, TE19

If you're looking for someone to come out of nowhere and be fantasy relevant, Cook might be your guy. He's been hyped in the preseason during his time in Tennessee and St. Louis, but he always fell short of expectations. Of course, he didn't have a quarterback anywhere near the level of Aaron Rodgers, and that makes a big difference. 

The Packers have been looking for a third option in their passing game behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, and they may have it in Cook. He worked as the top TE against the 49ers in the third preseason game and hauled in four of his five targets for 54 yards. The Packers moved him around the formation and he did damage out of the slot and down the seam. If Rodgers and Cook develop a connection, Cook could have legit fantasy value.

2016 Tight End PPR Draft Rankings

1Rob Gronkowski NE (9)00
2Jordan Reed WAS (9)00
3Travis Kelce KC (5)+1+1
4Greg Olsen CAR (7)-1-1
5Zach Ertz PHI (4)+3+2
6Delanie Walker TEN (13)-1-1
7Gary Barnidge CLE (13)0+2
8Julius Thomas JAC (5)+10
9Coby Fleener NO (5)-3-3
10Tyler Eifert CIN (9)+1+1
11Antonio Gates SD (11)-1-1
12Martellus Bennett NE (9)+10
13Eric Ebron DET (10)+2+2
14Zach Miller CHI (9)+3+3
15Dwayne Allen IND (10)-3-1
16Clive Walford OAK (10)+4+7
17Jared Cook GB (4)+3+2
18Jimmy Graham SEA (5)-2-5
19Jason Witten DAL (7)-5-3
20Vance McDonald SF (8)+2+5
21Charles Clay BUF (10)-3+1
22Virgil Green DEN (11)+5+10
23Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB (6)0-3
24Kyle Rudolph MIN (6)+3+6
25Jordan Cameron MIA (8)-1+2
26Jesse James PIT (8)+6+10
27Jacob Tamme ATL (11)+7+2
28Will Tye NYG (8)-30
29Maxx Williams BAL (8)+9N/A 
30Tyler Higbee LA (8)-2+3
31Crockett Gillmore BAL (8)+5N/A  
32Ryan Griffin HOU (9)+15N/A  
33Tyler Kroft CIN (9)+18-2
34Lance Kendricks LA (8)+8N/A  
35Brent Celek PHI (4)+11N/A  
36Jace Amaro NYJ (11)+4-10
37Jeff Heuerman DEN (11)-2N/A  
38Hunter Henry SD (11)+1-4
39Darren Fells ARI (9)+10N/A  

Defenses/Kickers: Short-Term Planning

6 of 6
Consider the early-season schedule of the Eagles when drafting your defense.
Consider the early-season schedule of the Eagles when drafting your defense.

You're working the waiver wire for your kicker and defense unless you're lucky enough to end up with a reliable, every-week kicker like Stephen Gostkowski or a defense like the Denver Broncos, but don't reach to get either. Those picks are better spent on skill positions.

When it comes to picking your defense, I suggest narrowing your focus. Sure, Denver, Seattle, Houston, Carolina and Arizona are solid options regardless of matchup, but others may snatch them up earlier than the final two rounds. You're better off targeting defenses with favorable schedules early in the season, knowing you'll hit the waiver wire to replace them at some point anyway.

It just so happens that the Seahawks, Texans and Cardinals have some of the best early-season schedules, but let's skip them with the assumption you won't be able to get them. Instead, take a look at these options:

  • Baltimore Ravens (vs. BUF, at CLE, at JAX, vs. OAK)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (vs. CLE, at CHI, vs. PIT, BYE)
  • Cleveland Browns (at PHI, vs. BAL, at MIA, at WAS)

2016 Defense Draft Rankings

1Denver Broncos DEN (11)+10
2Seattle Seahawks SEA (5)-10
3Houston Texans HOU (9)+2+2
4Arizona Cardinals ARI (9)-10
5Carolina Panthers CAR (7)-1-2
6Los Angeles Rams LA (8)+2+1
7New England Patriots NE (9)0+2
8Kansas City Chiefs KC (5)-2-2
9New York Jets NYJ (11)+2+2
10Minnesota Vikings MIN (6)-1-2
11Philadelphia Eagles PHI (4)+5+6
12Cincinnati Bengals CIN (9)-2-2
13Jacksonville Jaguars JAC (5)+4+3
14Buffalo Bills BUF (10)-10
15Green Bay Packers GB (4)-3-3
16Oakland Raiders OAK (10)-1-3
17Miami Dolphins MIA (8)+1+3
18Baltimore Ravens BAL (8)+1+1
19New York Giants NYG (8)+2+6
20Washington Redskins WAS (9)+2-2

      

2016 Kicker Draft Rankings

1Stephen Gostkowski NE (9)00
2Steven Hauschka SEA (5)00
3Justin Tucker BAL (8)0+1
4Mason Crosby GB (4)+1+2
5Chandler Catanzaro ARI (9)-1+4
6Graham Gano CAR (7)+1-3
7Dan Bailey DAL (7)-1-2
8Adam Vinatieri IND (10)0+2
9Brandon McManus DEN (11)+1+2
10Blair Walsh MIN (6)-1-2
11Cairo Santos KC (5)+1+1
12Matt Prater DET (10)+1+6
13Dan Carpenter BUF (10)+2+10
14Josh Lambo SD (11)+5+11
15Sebastian Janikowski OAK (10)+2-2
16Chris Boswell PIT (8)-5-9
17Mike Nugent CIN (9)-1+4
18Greg Zuerlein LA (8)+11+14
19Matt Bryant ATL (11)-10
20Robbie Gould CHI (9)0-4

          

Special thanks to our friends at FantasyPros for providing stats. ADPs accurate heading into Wednesday.

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