Monday Morning Hangover: Buying (or Not) Playoff Prospects of Key Contenders
The only thing more confusing than figuring out the NFL playoff picture is figuring out where and when we are supposed to do our shopping these days.
Let's see, there was Black Friday, which started right about when Luke Kuechly intercepted his first pass of the Panthers-Cowboys game Thursday. Black Friday is when our nation's shoppers all rush out to the big-box stores together so they can complain on Facebook about the crowds.
Then there is Small Business Saturday, when you buy a tea cozy for Aunt Eunice at the House of Doilies on Merchant Street and figure it balances out the $1,800 you spent at the mall Friday.
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Then comes Cyber Monday, which started Saturday. That's when you shop online from work, essentially corroding the economy from within. Finally, there's Giving Tuesday: Charity may be first in our hearts, but it's last on the schedule, after we are deep in debt.
Actually, that schedule makes more sense than the playoff picture. That's why Hangover is here to provide you with Cyber Monday Playoff Megadeals to help you make the best postseason selections possible. We tailor our stretch-run selections based not just on Sunday's results or November trends, but on upcoming schedules as well.
So just pick your purchases from the following guide, and you'll have one less holiday hassle to worry about in December!
Patriots as Super Bowl Favorites: Buying
Yes, the Broncos pulled off a remarkable, entertaining 30-24 overtime victory. Yes, Rob Gronkowski was hurt late in the game, leaving Tom Brady with a bunch of receivers named Asante Cleveland and Keshawn Martin. The Patriots are mortal. We've known that for three weeks.
The Patriots face the Eagles, Texans and Titans in the next three weeks. By the time they reach the end—back-to-back divisional road games—they will be 12-2 at worst and will have their receiving situation sorted out. (Danny Amendola, for example, will likely be back.)
Hangover didn't buy into the Patriots will never lose again until the sun is a charred-ember storyline, and we aren't overreacting to one loss, either.
Bengals as Top AFC Challengers: Buying
What? The Bengals and not the Broncos? Yes. Here's why: The Bengals are more balanced, and they are a better situational team.
The Broncos beat the Patriots despite numerous situational blunders. Brock Osweiler let himself get sacked out of field-goal range early in the game. Broncos punts rolled through the end zone, while the Patriots pinned the Broncos deep in their own territory several times.
The Broncos generally commit too many dumb 15-yard penalties. Aqib Talib drew one Sunday night; Von Miller drew one for pouncing on Brady when he had been lying on the ground for several seconds.
The Broncos won't win a rematch with the closer-to-full-strength Patriots unless they improve their fit-and-finish, and that has nothing to do with who starts at quarterback.
The Bengals, on the other hand, rarely leave any points on the field, though they have some roughness-foul tendencies of their own. The Bengals are far deeper, more balanced and more diverse on offense than the Broncos.
Luckily, we don't have to argue about Bengals vs. Broncos for long: They face each other in Denver on Monday night in Week 16. The winner will likely get a first-round bye.
It sounds like we are slagging the Broncos. We aren't; they played a heck of a game. But you have to base your playoff shopping on the full body of work and the future prospects, not just the results.
Panthers and Cardinals as Top NFC Contenders: Buying
The Panthers will never again be road underdogs simply because they have fewer national fans than their opponent—not after what they did to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
The Cardinals didn't earn any style points in their 19-13 triumph over the 49ers, but divisional road wins are rarely easy, and that game was not as close as the score.
Seahawks as a Playoff Team: Buying
The Packers still have their supporters, but there is only one truly threatening team lurking in the NFC bushes.
Since their bye earlier in November, the Seahawks offense has been much more than a loose collection of Russell Wilson scrambles punctuated by the occasional bomb.
Wilson (five touchdowns in the wild 39-30 win over the Steelers on Sunday) now gets to throw from the pocket semi-regularly. Doug Baldwin (6-145-3) has 19 receptions in the last three games after weeks of near-invisibility.
The Seahawks have some problems on defense—three great defensive backs and three terrible ones may not be much better than six half-decent guys—but a functional offense should be enough to vault them into the playoffs.
The upcoming Seahawks schedule features three likely gimmies: the Ravens, Browns and Rams. If the Seahawks can win in either Minnesota next week or Arizona to end the season, they could finish 10-6. That should push them past the Bears, who will probably linger in the rearview mirror for the rest of the year, and the Falcons, who enjoyed their two months of relevance and are ready to get on with the business of rebuilding.
Steelers as a Playoff Team: Not Buying
Their upcoming schedule features the Colts, Bengals (in Cincinnati in daytime) and Broncos. That's a tough three-game stretch, even with Ben Roethlisberger available.
Roethlisberger, who was hurt late in the Seahawks loss, may sail through concussion protocol like every other injury, but counting on him to continue shrugging off injuries makes little sense when he keeps getting hurt.
Vikings as a Playoff Team: Buying
The Vikings just racked up an important wild-card tiebreaker with their 20-10 win over the Falcons. They are a stout defensive team whose Hall of Fame running back thumped out 158 rushing yards and two TDs Sunday.
Vikings as a Division Champion: Not Buying
The ultimate Teddy Bridgewater stat line would look like this: 28 attempts, 20 completions, 112 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, two sacks for a loss of 24 yards and two four-yard completions each to 10 different players.
Bridgewater was better than that Sunday (he threw for 174 yards and was sack-free), but without Peterson, the Vikings offense would be nothing but dump-offs to a battalion of tight ends.
The Vikings have a brutal late schedule: Seahawks, at Cardinals, Bears, Giants, at Packers. The Packers have an easier road (it includes the Cowboys). Look for the Vikings to end up either 10-6 and a game behind the Packers or 11-5 but in second place due to tiebreakers.
Colts as AFC South Champions: Buying
Matt Hasselbeck is doing everything the Colts need him to do to keep them atop the division until Andrew Luck returns.
Colts as Contenders: Not Buying
The Colts have used enough smoke and mirrors in their last two wins to stock a cheap Vegas magic show.
Sunday's 25-12 win over Tampa Bay was a cavalcade of missed Buccaneers extra points and field goals, Buccaneers touchdowns negated by penalties, Colts fumbles bouncing harmlessly out of bounds, Indy fumbles negated by penalties, dumb Chris Conte leaping penalties to turn Colts field goals into first downs, and other football voodoo.
The Colts did a lot right Sunday (Donte Moncrief is slippery underneath; the pass rush got to Jameis Winston late in the game), but they still cannot run the ball and are getting away with a lot of mistakes. This is not a team that has "figured out how to win." It's just a team that has won a few times.
And if you have hopped on "the Colts are better off with Hasselbeck than Luck" bandwagon, please stop accepting rides from strangers.
Chiefs as a Playoff Team: Buying
The upcoming schedule features the Chargers, Ravens and Browns, bracketed by a pair of games with the Raiders. The Chiefs will finish with a 9-7 record at worst; 10-6 feels more likely.
They hold head-to-head tiebreakers against the Texans and Steelers (and Bills if they hang around). More about the Chiefs later in Stock Watch. For now, this is the defense-first wild-card hopeful you can trust.
Jets and Texans as Playoff Teams: Renting
The Jets and Texans are defense-first wild-card hopefuls you cannot trust.
The Jets hammered the Dolphins 38-20, but lots of teams hammer the Dolphins. Their upcoming schedule features one vicious opponent (Patriots), two pesky ones (Giants and Bills) and two relative pushovers (Cowboys and Titans, though they face the Cowboys in Dallas).
Losses to the Bills, Texans and Raiders in November speak louder than a sweep of the Dolphins and could cause tiebreaker problems.
The Texans could still win the AFC South, and that head-to-head win over the Jets could loom large if the sixth AFC playoff slot comes down to a 9-7 free-for-all. Beating the Saints 24-6 is great, but it's not the same as beating a team that actually wants to be in the stadium.
The Patriots, Broncos and Bengals are so much better than any team vying for that final playoff berth that it's hard to work up too much enthusiasm. Pick the team you prefer, but save the gift receipt.
Raiders as a Playoff Team: Not Buying
The Raiders spent Sunday playing down to the Titans in the rain and then only won when a ticky-tack defensive-holding call negated a fourth-down stop and gave them a second chance in the final minutes.
There are too many 6-5 teams with favorable schedules and better credentials in the AFC wild-card race.
NFC East Teams as Anything but NFC East Teams: Not Buying
The best way to think about NFC East teams, if you actually have to, is to use the "So What?" test.
Whether the division is won by the first-place Redskins (a bad team that only beats division opponents and hot-mess Rams and Saints types), the Giants (they started to get semi-healthy last week, so the Aztec god that cursed them woke up and injured the whole offensive line), the Eagles (everyone could start playing and coaching for their next jobs) or the Tony Romo-less Cowboys, it doesn't really matter. None of these teams can get past the top NFC contenders.
Only the Redskins could really call an 8-8, one-and-done playoff season a success, and if it convinces them to double down on Kirk Cousins, it will be a pretty hollow victory.
All of the other NFC East teams, with their established coaches and quarterbacks or go-for-broke offseason gambles, have already fallen short of expectations. So one of them will squeak into the playoffs. So what?
Stock Watch: Doing Without
This week's Stock Watch examines some teams that were without important contributors Sunday.
Jets Without Darrelle Revis
Who needs Revis when you are playing the Dolphins? The Dolphins don't really have game plans, just random collections of horizontal passes from Ryan Tannehill to Jarvis Landry.
Marcus Williams (Revis' replacement) recorded an interception, Antonio Cromartie had a near-pick, and the Jets combined for 11 passes defensed.
It's hard to figure out when the Jets found the time to deflect all of those passes; the Dolphins were 0-of-6 on third-down conversions and only possessed the ball for 12 minutes and 44 seconds in the first half.
So the Jets were Steady without Revis for one week. But Odell Beckham Jr., Dez Bryant and the Patriots stand between them and a wild-card berth, so they are going to need him sooner than later.
Seahawks Without Cary Williams
The Seahawks did not just bench cornerback Cary Williams—the weak link in the Legion of Boom all season long. They deactivated him. That left DeShawn Shead as the fourth Beatle and Jeremy Lane as the nickel defender, with each carrying a flashing arrow around the field reading: "Throw it here, Big Ben!"
Markus Wheaton caught nine passes for 201 yards and a touchdown. Martavis Bryant added five catches for 69 yards. Shead and Lane covered Wheaton and Bryant for most of the afternoon, though Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also got picked on a bit when the Seahawks opted for zone coverage.
Williams is a frustrating defender who will look great for a half-game and then go on a mental staycation on 3rd-and-10 with the score tied in the fourth quarter. Shead and Lane just aren't very good. The Seahawks need to work Williams into the rotation somehow.
In the meantime, the Shead-Lane gambit lured Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger into completely abandoning the run in favor of lots of deep passes in the Seahawks' win, and the Steelers added a zany, ill-conceived fake field goal to boot.
Tricking the opponent into thinking it can beat you with Landry Jones throwing to tackle Alejandro Villanueva is a funky way to win a chess match. The Seahawks are Rising despite themselves.
Chiefs Without Charcandrick West
Here's a question for you. Say you are facing the Chiefs when they are down to third-string running back Spencer Ware. You take a 10-0 lead on them in the rain. Remember, these are the Chiefs; they have exactly one wide receiver and one tight end you even have to think about, and Alex Smith isn't exactly Dan Marino when throwing downfield, even on a clear day.
Now which of the following defensive strategies do you deploy?
- Double-cover Jeremy Maclin on every snap.
- Shade a safety to Maclin's side of the field on every snap.
- Zone blitz from the opposite side of the field (where no one is ever going to see the ball) while rolling all your zone defenders toward Maclin.
- Mix tactics 1, 2 and 3 but make absolutely certain you aren't repeatedly beaten deep by Maclin.
- Eh, just play man-to-man and keep the safety in the middle of the field to prevent Jason Avant from beating you.
Rex Ryan chose No. 5. Maclin caught nine passes for 160 yards and a touchdown, accounting for nearly 63 percent of the Chiefs' passing yardage in a 30-22 victory.
Ware added 114 rushing yards, and the Chiefs are Rising despite an offense that looks on paper like it should score 10 points per week. No one plays better situational football (red zone, third down, special teams, etc.) than the Chiefs.
Falcons Without Devonta Freeman and Others
Don't let Tevin Coleman's 110 yards on 18 carries fool you. Coleman fumbled at the end of a 46-yard run and failed to catch a pass on two targets—one a catchable wheel route along the deep sideline. Coleman is talented, but the Falcons needed an all-purpose contributor like Freeman with Leonard Hankerson also out of the lineup.
One series sums up the Falcons' 20-10 loss nicely and explains why they are likely to drop out of the playoff picture:
- Some hard running by Coleman got the Falcons to the 1-yard line.
- Coleman was stuffed on first down.
- He appeared to score on second down, but a clip by Tony Moeaki moved the ball back to the 15-yard line instead.
- A Vikings penalty (it was that kind of game) moved the Falcons forward, but Coleman couldn't haul in a short pass from Ryan.
- Terron Ward lost four yards when he replaced Coleman.
- Ryan then threw an interception to Terence Newman while trying to find Jacob Tamme in heavy traffic in the back of the end zone.
- It was Ryan's fourth red-zone interception of the season.
In fairness to Ryan, the way the second half of the Falcons season has gone, replacement kicker Shayne Graham would have missed the field goal anyway. The Falcons are Falling, and there is not much anyone can do about it.
Saints Without Rob Ryan
Not much changed for the Saints in Dennis Allen's debut as defensive coordinator.
The Texans built one touchdown drive largely from coverage penalties, though Delvin Breaux replaced Brandon Browner as the prime culprit. (Browner played a penalty-free game. Progress?) Screens and short passes underneath were still a source of mystery and wonder, as were the Cecil Shorts III Wildcat wrinkles and shovel passes.
There were some pluses, however. DeAndre Hopkins was held to 36 receiving yards, while Jairus Byrd did the one thing he does really well: He caught an interception thrown directly into his belly.
It doesn't matter what Allen and the Saints defense do when their offense scores just six points. Drew Brees was harassed all afternoon and threw some wobbly passes. Sean Payton abandoned the run some time during the bye week.
The Saints defense remains a Steady problem, but it has never been the only problem in New Orleans this year.
Performance Bonuses
Offensive Line Bonus
The Chiefs entered Sunday's game without guard Ben Grubbs and then saw left tackle Eric Fisher (neck), guard Jeff Allen (ankle) and center Mitch Morse (concussion) get injured. The Chiefs were one injury away from having to use a tight end or defensive tackle as an offensive lineman.
Yet somehow against the Bills, Alex Smith endured just one sack (granted, he did his fair share of scrambling), and Ware rushed for 114 yards. So let's hear it for Fisher, Allen, Morse, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, Jah Reid, replacement center Zach Fulton and replacement-everything Donald Stephenson.
Justin Tucker Special Teams Bonus
Redskins punter Tress Way put three punts inside the 20-yard line, including a 60-yarder to flip field position at a point when his offense had stalled and his defense needed all the breathing room it could get.
Way's final punt of the fourth quarter drew returner Dwayne Harris into the corner of the field near his own goal line, pinning the Giants (despite a Redskins penalty) and preventing any more late-game Odell Beckham Jr. highlight generation.
Unsung Defensive Hero Bonus
The Bengals defense is generally thought of as "the Bengals defense," an effective-but-anonymous collection of players without a marquee pass-rusher, shutdown cornerback or superstar middle linebacker. So let's single out Geno Atkins for attention for his sack and three tackles for losses in a 31-7 win over the Rams.
Atkins controlled the middle of the line of scrimmage, forcing the Rams to try to build their entire offense around reverses to Tavon Austin. Seriously. That's really what happened.
Meaningless Fantasy Touchdown Bonus
Tannehill made things look interesting in the fourth quarter against the Jets with a pair of touchdowns to cut the score from 35-7 to 38-20. Greg Jennings caught one of the touchdowns—his first of the season.
If you have been waiting all year for the Jennings signing to pay off, congratulations, because that means you are Executive Vice President of Football Operations Mike Tannenbaum!
Fantasy Leech Bonus
The Falcons finally punched the ball into the end zone with 1:28 to play in the fourth quarter. But the Falcons weren't about to appease all you Julio Jones dependents or Tevin Coleman speculators.
A 5'10" practice-squad lifer named Nick Williams caught Ryan's roll-out pass. To add insult to injury, coordinator Kyle Shanahan sent Jones in motion to the far side of the field to make it as clear as possible that your second-round fantasy draft selection was nothing but a decoy.
The Falcons: equally disappointing in real and fantasy football in the second half of the season.
Bold Call Bonus
Coaches Gus Bradley and Greg Olson of Jacksonville get this week's bonus for taking a shot at the end zone on 4th-and-7 from the 21-yard line early in the fourth quarter.
A field goal to cut the Chargers lead to 24-15 would be the safe choice, but Blake Bortles found Julius Thomas up the seam for a touchdown that made the score 24-19 instead following the extra point.
The Jaguars could not pull off a win, but they were able to block a punt, throw a quick touchdown and attempt an onside kick late in the game because of the four extra points they scored by being daring.
Mystery Touch Bonus
Extra Bengals lineman Jake Fisher missed his chance to achieve both Mystery Touch and Fantasy Leech Bonus fame when Andy Dalton couldn't quite find him in the back of the end zone for a surprise roll-out touchdown.
The name "J. Fisher" did appear on the official stat sheet as a targeted receiver, which made it look like Rams coach Jeff Fisher himself put on a helmet and took to the field. For the opposing team. That would make as much sense as anything Fisher has done this year.
Last Call: First Train to Quitsville
Week 12 was marked by some ugly blowouts and flat performances by teams slipping out of contention. Here's a countdown of the clubs most likely to completely surrender in the final weeks.
10. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens never quit, as much as you might wish they would.
9. Tennessee Titans: Technically, it's hard to quit when everyone in the organization is a temp. "Riding out the clock" is more like it.
8. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers were as surprised to still be in the game in the fourth quarter against the Cardinals as viewers were. They've already quit, but they excel at running around and looking busy.
7. San Diego Chargers: You know how couples who are about to break up sometimes make passionate, crazy love one last time? That's similar to what Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates did in the first half against the Jaguars. Sorry about that image.
6. Cleveland Browns: It's hard to tell where the quitting starts and the general state of just being the Browns ends.
5. New Orleans Saints: It turns out Sean Payton needed Rob Ryan to yell at all game just so he could remain emotionally invested.
4. Miami Dolphins: There's a disconnect, the Miami Herald's Armando Salguero reported between ownership's opinion of Ryan Tannehill (they love him) and the coaching staff's (they restrict his audibles and consider him a "game manager"). This disconnect is most evident when Tannehill is forced to throw 58 passes but none of them downfield.
3. Philadelphia Eagles: Can you imagine Chip Kelly's pre-Patriots pep talk this week? "You know that game plan that doesn't even fool the Lions anymore? Well, it's gonna blow Bill Belichick's mind."
2. Dallas Cowboys: Maybe basing every shred of hope on a brittle 35-year-old with a history of turnover sprees wasn't such a great idea. Of course, no one in the NFC East can really quit until they are certain 7-9 won't win the division.
1. St. Louis Rams: Next week's offensive game plan will consist solely of direct snaps to Tavon Austin.
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
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