2016 NFL Draft Scouting Notebook for Week 11

The Scout's Report

—If you love sleepers, keep this name in mind: Cole Toner. The Harvard right tackle was pointed out to me recently by an area scout, and after watching three games myself, he looks like the real deal. In checking in with other scouts from two teams, everyone has him in the top 100 currently, with every team I've talked to projecting a position change to center in the NFL.

—Georgia head coach Mark Richt announced this week that running back Keith Marshall would leave school early and enter the 2016 NFL draft. Marshall (5'10", 215 lbs) doesn't show great NFL speed on film, but he does have a draftable grade as of now even with the injuries he's suffered.

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

—It's been a weird week for Josh Doctson injury updates. Last week there was confusion over if he was out for the year or expected to play, but he didn't see the field Saturday and on Wednesday, head coach Gary Patterson announced Doctson would miss the rest of the regular season, per Mac Engel of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. The senior wideout has a first-round grade.

—It happens a lot and often isn't newsworthy—when an opposing coach compares a player to J.J. Watt or Aaron Rodgers or says an opponent is the best in college football. But when a scout says Alabama has the best defensive line he's ever seen, that's newsworthy. Thanks to Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports, that's the word coming from a "veteran NFL scout" with first-round grades for A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed and Jonathan Allen.  

—It wasn't long ago that people on Twitter were asking me if Kentucky quarterback Patrick Towles was an NFL prospect. Those questions may stop now that the redshirt junior has been benched, according to Jon Hale of the Louisville Courier-Journal. 

John Raoux/Associated Press

—Area scouts I spoke to this week tell me it's unlikely Clemson wide receiver Mike Williams will enter the 2016 NFL draft after suffering a neck fracture in Week 1. The plan, I'm told, is for Williams to return at 100 percent in 2016. If healthy, Williams will be my No. 1 wide receiver for the 2017 draft.

—Missouri defensive end Charles Harris was a hot name on Twitter this week thanks to NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah tweeting out his evaluations. In talking to team sources at Missouri, I've learned Harris is not expected to enter the 2016 NFL draft, as he wants to graduate from Mizzou next fall before heading to the NFL.

—No insider information here—just a name to share and a player to gush about. Southern Utah strong safety Miles Killebrew is built in that Jaquiski Tartt or Deone Bucannon mold, and like them he'll probably play some linebacker in nickel situations at 6'3", 223 pounds. He's a Senior Bowl invite and a big hitter with 4.45 speed to keep an eye on.

Five Names to Know

5. QB No. 12 Paxton Lynch (Memphis) vs. Temple

The Temple defense is loaded, and well-coached. They held Penn State's Christian Hackenberg to an awful day (11-of-25, 103 yards, 1 INT) and will give Paxton Lynch his biggest test of the season so far. With so much draft hype nationally surrounding Lynch (who I wrote up recently), this is a must-watch game.

4. QB No. 14 Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) vs. Michigan

Statistically, Hackenberg has been very good since some early-season struggles, throwing just one interception in his last seven games. But the film shows a passer still struggling with ball placement and quick decisions. The Michigan front seven will give him the kind of frustrations that caused Hackenberg's regression from 2014.

Butch Dill/Associated Press

3. CB No. 18 Tre'Davious White (LSU) vs. WR No. 1 Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss)

We may not see White going head-to-head against Treadwell often in this game—or Les Miles may go all-in and put his best cornerback on Ole Miss' best receiver the entire game—but no matter, this demands attention. White has the length and speed to fluster Treadwell, but can he match the physicality with which the Ole Miss star attacks the ball?

2. QB No. 18 Connor Cook (Michigan State) vs. SS No. 11 Vonn Bell (Ohio State)

Why all the attention on Connor Cook lately? Because I want to make sure I get him right. After seeing Cook live versus Nebraska, I want one more game before finalizing his report and draft grade. One final test against this loaded Ohio State defense—and its excellent strong safety Vonn Bell—will help that process. It's also worth watching to see if Cook's shoulder, which took him out of last week's game, gives him any trouble.

1. DE No. 97 Joey Bosa (Ohio State) vs. T No. 74 Jack Conklin (Michigan State)

This is the matchup we're all waiting for. Conklin did a good job against Bosa in 2014, holding him to two hurries and three quarterback hits per my charting of the game, but the Michigan State tackle is struggling with an injury this year and doesn't look as fluid. If Bosa lines up at right end, this one could be ugly for the Spartans.

Scouting Report: Carson Wentz, North Dakota State

Throughout the 2016 draft season, I'll highlight one draft prospect each week with a first-look scouting report.

Bruce Crummy/Associated Press

No. 11 Quarterback Carson Wentz, North Dakota State University (6'5", 231 lbs)

Strengths: A senior, two-year-starter, Wentz has the measurables you want in a quarterback. He's a sturdy 6'5" and 230 plus pounds and has the strong right arm to match. Don't let the big body fool you, as Wentz is a quality runner (642 yards on the ground as a junior) with confirmed 4.85 speed in the 40-yard dash.

As a thrower, Wentz won't be affected by the elements. He plays outside in bitter weather and his arm has stood up to wind, rain and snow. On an NFL level, Wentz won't be Joe Flacco or Derek Carr, but he's above guys like Teddy Bridgewater and Andy Dalton. He moves well in the pocket and can execute half and quarter rolls.

The shotgun offense NDSU runs does ask him to execute a lot of play fakes and a lot of read-option runs (some may see this as a negative). He does a good job carrying out play fakes and has the hand size to easily pull off play action. He does a nice job escaping the pocket when muddy and will pull the ball down and run without hesitation.  

In the pocket, Wentz isn't afraid to stand in and fire from the protection of his offensive line. He doesn't get flustered by pressure and will step up or out of pressure to throw with his eyes up and down the field.

Weaknesses: The broken wrist suffered October 17 is an issue for now, but it shouldn't be considered a long-term weakness. Wentz has started just 22 games in college (his entire junior season and six games in his senior year). His experience as a starter isn't what you'd want from a redshirt senior. Wentz turns 23 in December and will be an older rookie. 

On the field, he can get tunnel vision and lock onto wide receivers. At times you see Wentz revert to a wide throwing base that taxes his arm and can lead to poor accuracy. Sloppy mechanics will lead to Wentz not carrying his feet with him through the throw. He can be too much of an arm passer. There were games in 2014 when Wentz relied on his feet a little early in the progression. 

The biggest question mark is how Wentz's accuracy will translate to the NFL. Playing against lower levels of competition, he wasn't putting the ball on the mark consistently. I'd say he's comparable to Paxton Lynch (Memphis) here with the ball being catchable, but often put on the wrong hip or wrong shoulder of the target.

All in all, Wentz doesn't look like a quarterback who will be ready for Day 1 play, but he's farther ahead of players like Bryce Petty or Brett Hundley in terms of NFL readiness. The team drafting him should see the pick as an investment with a plan to develop his reads and decision-making while building on his strong arm and mobility.

Pro Comparison: Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Please, please, please read: This is a comparison of Bortles at UCF and not how he's developed in two years with the Jaguars. Comparing Wentz to Bortles now isn't fair to where I expect he'll be in two seasons. 

That said, Bortles and Wentz both have big frames with surprising agility and running skills. Both were a bit scattershot with accuracy in college. Both needed to clean up their footwork. Bortles has a much higher ceiling than Wentz does at this time, but from a skills and athletic standpoint, I see similar players.

The Big Board

I've always tried to stress to fans that draft evaluations are very, very fluid, and that's probably more true for folks like me (a one-man-show) even though it is also true for NFL teams. You see more games, or you talk to a source and get some information on an injury or a suspension or what a coach thinks of a player, and things change. That's especially true when you sit down and cram game film for a weekend like I did last week. The resulting changes are small, but notable, in my Top 50.

Rank	Player
1	QB Jared Goff, Cal
2	LB Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame
3	DE Joey Bosa, Ohio State
4	DL Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss
5	CB Vernon Hargreaves, Florida
6	T Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
7	FS Jalen Ramsey, FSU
8	T Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss
9	LB Myles Jack, UCLA
10	RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
11	WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss
12	CB Mackensie Alexander, Clemson
13	DL Kenny Clark, UCLA
14	WR Josh Doctson, TCU
15	DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson
16	QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis
17	DL DeForest Buckner, Oregon
18	LB Su'a Cravens, USC
19	NT Andrew Billings, Baylor
20	DT Maliek Collins, Nebraska
21	WR Corey Coleman, Baylor
22	LB Reggie Ragland, Alabama
23	FS Jayron Kearse, Clemson
24	EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, Oklahoma St.
25	WR Michael Thomas, Ohio State
26	NT Jarran Reed, Alabama
27	DL A'Shawn Robinson, Alabama
28	NT Austin Johnson, Penn State
29	EDGE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky
30	T Shon Coleman, Auburn
31	T Jerald Hawkins, LSU
32	CB Tre'Davious White, LSU
33	EDGE Jordan Jenkins, Georgia
34	EDGE Vince Biegel, Wisconsin
35	LB Joshua Perry, Ohio State
36	WR Tyler Boyd, Pitt
37	QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
38	QB Carson Wentz, NDSU
39	T Taylor Decker, Ohio State
40	EDGE Jonathan Bullard, Florida
41	LB Leonard Floyd, Georgia
42	DL Adolphus Washington, Ohio State
43	CB Cameron Sutton, Tennessee
44	FS Darian Thompson, Boise State
45	SS Vonn Bell, Ohio State
46	RB Paul Perkins, UCLA
47	DL Charles Tapper, Oklahoma
48	EDGE Jonathan Allen, Alabama
49	DL Vernon Butler, Louisiana Tech
50	G Denver Kirkland, Arkansas

Parting Shots  

5a The Cleveland Browns are 2-8 and currently holding the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL draft. They need help. Here's my attempt at fixing the Browns (Part 1):

GM: Peyton Manning

Why would I hand a team to Peyton Manning? Because the Browns need credibility, and right now they have very little. How can they recruit a top-flight coaching candidate with a roster of question marks at key positions and a history of failures? By having Manning in the general manager chair. Given his relationship with owner Jimmy Haslam, Manning may be the only man in the world who could receive total control of the franchise. Assuming he attacks a post-football career like he did his playing career, Manning could follow John Elway’s footsteps in building a legitimate team.

HC: Adam Gase

The only way the Browns are getting Gase is to pair him with his old pal Peyton. This is the same Adam Gase who can handpick his next shop after orchestrating record-setting seasons with Manning and fixing Jay Cutler. He’s the perfect mixture of young energy and freakish film nerd, and the right man to find and groom the Browns’ franchise quarterback.

OC: John DeFilippo

If the Browns are going to give Johnny Manziel a chance at quarterback, it makes sense to keep the guy he’s comfortable with. John DeFilippo did great work with Derek Carr and has Manziel playing his best ball as a pro. 

DC: Dennis Allen

(Note: This was done before Allen was promoted to defensive coordinator in New Orleans.)

Whomever the defensive coordinator is in Cleveland, they’ll have a lot of control on that side of the ball given Gase’s limited experience. Most first-time head coaches do a great job of focusing on “their” side of the ball, and Gase will be no different. That means the defensive coordinator has to be trusted, and Dennis Allen and Gase worked together in Denver (before Allen took the head job in Oakland). 

5b The Cleveland Browns are 2-8 and currently holding the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL draft. They need help. Here's my attempt at fixing the Browns (Part 2):

Start Johnny Manziel. The Browns invested a first-round-pick in the former Texas A&M quarterback, and in limited reps he's done nothing to change the perception of him as a future starter. The Browns owe it to Manziel and they owe it to themselves to see if he can handle the starting job before spending another high pick on a quarterback.

With that in mind, here's how I would draft for Cleveland:

Rd1—DE Joey Bosa, Ohio State

—An obvious "best player available" pick for Cleveland if they don't go quarterback. Bosa is a 4-3 defensive end, but the team has the pieces in Danny Shelton and others to go away from their base 3-4 scheme and allow Bosa to play the left defensive end position with Shelton still manning the nose and 2015 third-rounder Xavier Cooper playing 3-tech.

Rd2—WR Tyler Boyd, Pitt

—The need at wide receiver has been huge ever since Josh Gordon was first suspended. The Browns have good complementary pieces at the position right now, but they need a true No. 1 player. Tyler Boyd has those skills, but he slips slightly due to a DUI early in the 2015 season.

Rd3—CB Fabian Moreau, UCLA

—With Justin Gilbert so far in the doghouse he's being benched for special teams players at cornerback, the Browns have to start thinking about a do-over. Fabian Moreau had top 50 upside before ending his season with a foot injury in September, but he should be back healthy for the start of the 2017 season.

4 Clemson cornerback Mackensie Alexander is on the radar big time this week. With excellent length, speed and instincts, Alexander looks like a top-15 pick in this draft. And for those looking at his redshirt sophomore status, I expect Alexander to declare given his season and how much NFL scouts like his play.

3 I’m not ready to say Josh Rosen is a future No. 1 pick or anything, but I am ready to say watching him throw the ball and move in the pocket, those are the things you look for in a stud quarterback prospect. He’s just a true freshman, and a lot can happen in the next two seasons, but Rosen has the tools to build on to become a great, great prospect.

2 Playing for a benched Peyton Manning in the second half of a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs doesn’t give enough time to truly evaluate what Brock Osweiler can be for the Denver Broncos once Peyton Manning is done (and that looks like it’s happening sooner rather than later). But shouldn’t the Broncos be thinking about this?

When the game is out of hand for the next seven weeks or whenever Manning returns from injury, I would find a way to get Osweiler reps. He has to be evaluated as the future of the team, eventually, and the Broncos are too talented on defense to wait around and see if he’s the man to take over after No. 18 retires.

1 The first round of Senior Bowl invites were announced this week, with 19 players officially accepting invitations. As always, I have to warn that these rosters and invitations aren't solid. Players drop out of the Senior Bowl every year due to injuries or agents getting involved and telling players they don't need the extra week of hitting. 

C Evan Boehm, Missouri	ILB Tyler Matakevich, Temple
CB James Bradberry, Samford	WR Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia
CB Sean Davis, Maryland	DE Sheldon Rankins, Louisville
G Josh Garnett, Stanford	DE Charles Tapper, Oklahoma
CB Deiondre' Hall, Northern Iowa	T Cole Toner, Harvard
DT Matt Ioannidis, Temple	FB Dan Vitale, Northwestern
OLB Jordan Jenkins, Georgia	DT Jihad Ward, Illinois
S Miles Killebrew, Southern Utah	QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State
WR Jay Lee, Baylor	TE Bryce Williams, East Carolina
ILB Blake Martinez, Stanford

Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.