2016 NFL Draft Scouting Notebook for Week 9

In my five years at Bleacher Report, I've never had readers ask for a scouting report on a player like they have over the last month for Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch. You guys asked (a lot), so this week I'm delivering—finally—with an introductory scouting report on the hottest name in the 2016 draft class.

What else can you expect this week? My biggest misses of the last five years, all sorts of rumors and news, five names to watch this weekend (including the matchup I'll be watching in Lincoln, Nebraska) and answers to your questions from Twitter.

The Scout's Report

— I've mentioned Houston cornerback William Jackson before. He's 6'0", 185 pounds, and runs a legit 4.5 in the 40-yard dash. And according to three scouts I texted with this week, he has a first-round grade heading into the last month of the season.

— This week I updated my Top 100 big board, and I immediately received an inquiry from an area scout about why DeForest Buckner was ranked so highly (No. 14 overall). Buckner, according to this scout, hasn't matched his play to his hype.

— Two players not included in the first round of that big board who should be, according to one college scouting director: offensive tackles Le'Raven Clark (Texas Tech) and Spencer Drango (Baylor).

Doug McSchooler/Associated Press

— Leonte Carroo has been a game-changer when on the field for Rutgers, but one area scout questioned me this week on how Carroo—who has missed three-plus games to injuries and suspensions this year—can be trusted enough to garner a Round 2 grade.

— FSU defensive back Jalen Ramsey has played safety and cornerback in his career, and NFL scouts entered the year torn on where his best fit in the pros would be. The more I talk to people around the league, though, the more obvious it's becoming that he's viewed now as a free safety prospect and not a cornerback given some struggles in man coverage.

— The hottest riser in this draft class might not be Paxton Lynch, but Clemson cornerback Mackensie Alexander. I spoke to two scouts this week who liked his NFL potential, size and speed better than those of Florida's Vernon Hargreaves.

— Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook will be a polarizing prospect as the draft draws closer. His on-field performance at times looks like first-round quality, and even his inconsistent footwork and accuracy are rare enough that you could overlook it or work with his tools. But I continue to hear negatives surrounding Cook's demeanor on and off the field. Much has been made of the fact that the senior quarterback wasn't voted a team captain, and area scouts who've gone through East Lansing tell me he's not receiving great reviews from staffers and teammates. That makes Cook a tough player to project moving forward, as it truly only takes one team to fall in love with a player and select him earlier than conventional wisdom suggests.

Five Names to Know

5. No. 15 QB Jake Rudock, Michigan

The former Iowa quarterback is receiving a lot of praise as the season heats up. He has NFL size (6'2", 208 lbs) and a strong arm, plus he's running a pro-style offense under Jim Harbaugh that is proven to work in the NFL. Rudock will see a ton of pressure from the Rutgers defense this week in a must-watch game.

4. No. 3 CB William Jackson, Houston

As mentioned above, Jackson's name is hot right now, and NFL scouts will want to see the Houston product compete against good wide receivers. He'll get that test this weekend against Cincinnati, where Mekale McKay and Shaq Washington are both NFL-caliber.

Heather Ainsworth/Associated Press

3. No. 74 T Vadal Alexander, LSU vs. No. 93 DE Jonathan Allen, Alabama

The best one-on-one matchup of the weekend belongs, of course, to LSU against Alabama in a Top Five battle. But the fight in the trenches will have NFL scouts' attention as right tackle Vadal Alexander tries to stop Jonathan Allen—a player who has become one of the best interior pass-rushers in college.

2. No. 66 C Jack Allen, Michigan State vs. No. 7 DT Maliek Collins, Nebraska

I will be in attendance this weekend scouting Michigan State at Nebraska, and this matchup is the one to watch. Allen is one of the best centers in college football, and Collins is among the most athletic defensive tackles you'll see this year.

1. No. 12 QB Cardale Jones, Ohio State

J.T. Barrett is out this week due to a suspension, so it's the Cardale Jones show again. His NFL draft stock has taken a big hit this season as he's not lived up to the potential shown last year, but how well Jones plays this weekend and how well he handles the erratic quarterback situation is worth watching.

Scouting Report: Paxton Lynch, Memphis

Throughout the 2016 draft season, I'll highlight one draft prospect each week with a first-look scouting report.

No. 12 Quarterback Paxton Lynch, Memphis (6'7", 245 lbs)

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Strengths: Paxton Lynch is listed at 6'7", 245 pounds. He carries his size well and is surprisingly agile and mobile for a big quarterback. This isn't Joe Flacco. He can move well and executes on half and full rollouts. Lynch is a good, strong athlete. His arm strength shows up as above average with velocity and spin across the field. Lynch throws a pretty deep ball with good spin and touch, and here he has shown top-level placement.

Lynch is a very efficient thrower with 17 touchdowns to just one interception as of this writing. He doesn't turn the ball over and completes around 70 percent of his passes in an offense that features a steady mix of underneath and deep routes. Lynch is a three-year starter, and it shows in his patience in the pocket and in his ability to let the play develop in front of him. He'll maneuver in the pocket to give the play time to develop and trusts his receivers to get open.

Weaknesses: My rule for scouting is that I won't write up a player until I've seen three games. For quarterbacks, that rule becomes five games. Why is this a weakness? Because Lynch hasn't seen much of a challenge on the schedule. For this report, I looked at games against Ole Miss, Missouri State, Cincinnati, South Florida and Tulsa. If strength of schedule is an issue for Jared Goff (or Derek Carr two years ago), then it's going to be an issue for Lynch.

On the field, Lynch's arm strength isn't what I had expected given his size and hype. The ball tends to flutter when thrown on a deeper out. Lynch has a wide base when throwing the ball and can revert to a flat-footed throwing motion without great upper-body torque. This leaves him exposed as an arm thrower, and he's not strong enough to pull this off. It would be fair to characterize Lynch as a rhythm thrower. When he's on, he's very good and his mechanics seem crisp and tight. When he's off, though, his ball placement often misses to the back hip or back shoulder, and the ball flutters.

Pro Comparison: Nick Foles, St. Louis Rams

Overall, Lynch doesn't have better characteristics than Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) or Jared Goff (California), but his production is eye-opening, as are his body type and athleticism. He's definitely a Round 1 talent should he enter the 2016 draft, but I wouldn't endorse him as a No. 1 overall-type player as of now. It's more likely he'll be a player in the 10-20 range, similar to Derek Carr's ranking but a more similar player, build and athlete to Nick Foles.

The Big Board

Accountability and self-evaluation are key for draft analysts. Not only should we freely admit our misses, but we should be studying why we missed on a player. It's not fair to simply say a player busted. Did he bust because of injuries, off-field issues or a bad situation? Those may sound like excuses, but understanding the why is very important to learning from mistakes.

Something I try to do is be very upfront about my misses. This week, I wanted to share my highest draft grades per position—and also my biggest misses at each position—since starting at B/R in 2010. 

Position	Best Grade (Overall rank)	Biggest Miss (Overall rank)
QB	Andrew Luck (1)	Robert Griffin III (2)
RB	Trent Richardson (3)	Trent Richardson (3)
WR	Alshon Jeffery (7)	Cordarrelle Patterson (5)
TE	Eric Ebron (13)	Rob Gronkowski (47)
T	Luke Joeckel (1)	Tyron Smith (21)
G	Chance Warmack (2)	Jonathan Cooper (18)
C	Maurkice Pouncey (25)	Travis Frederick (100)
DE	Jadeveon Clowney (2)	Nick Perry (8)
DT	Ndamukong Suh (1)	Tank Carradine (5)
OLB	Von Miller (1)	Jamie Collins (66)
ILB	C.J. Mosley (10)	NaVorro Bowman (59)
CB	Patrick Peterson (2)	Richard Sherman (219)
S	Eric Berry (4)	Kam Chancellor (122)

Parting Shots 

6. The Detroit Lions cleaned house Thursday, firing team president Tom Lewand and general manager Martin Mayhew. With new management coming to town, I started thinking about what changes need to be made. Here are a few things I'd do as general manager of the Lions:

A. Trade Matthew Stafford—his contract is free of guaranteed money after this season. He's worth several high draft picks (at least one first-rounder).

B. Trade Calvin Johnson—Megatron is a Hall of Famer, but if the New England Patriots have taught us anything, it's that moving a player one year too early is much better than moving him one year too late.

C. Move Riley Reiff to right tackle.

D. Use the No. 1 overall pick on Jared Goff and the pick received for Matthew Stafford on a left tackle like Taylor Decker from Ohio State.

"

@nfldraftscout What do you look for when scouting TEs? How much importance do you put on their blocking ability vs rec.? #scoutingnotebook

— Justin Malnes (@nitsuJ110) November 5, 2015"

I look for a complete tight end, which is one thing that makes my job a lot different than the job of an NFL general manager. They can look for a certain type of player and certain type of fit, but I'm grading for the entire league. The traits I look for are hands, route running, blocking, speed, toughness and injury history.

"

@nfldraftscout Is Goff worthy of being taken with the Niners' 1st, or due to his flaws should they pick BPA in the 1st? #scoutingnotebook

— #NinersVSTheWorld (@GUEROMEXICAN831) November 5, 2015"

I am always a fan of "best player available" drafting, but the San Francisco 49ers are in a bad spot. They need a franchise quarterback after Colin Kaepernick has regressed. If Goff is there when the 49ers draft in the first round, I would make him the pick.

"

@nfldraftscout #scoutingnotebook what type of future does Braxton Miller have in the NFL? What teams would target him?

— Clayton Trout (@claytrout_03) November 5, 2015"

Braxton Miller has a future at wide receiver in the NFL. Athletically and physically, he's not that different from Randall Cobb. At 6'2" and 200 pounds, Miller has the body to handle the punishment of the position, and what I've seen this year says he has the natural hands and footwork to become a very good No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. As for team fits, the New England Patriots seem almost too perfect.

"

@nfldraftscout thoughts on Carl Nassib? #scoutingnotebook

— Matt D (@Dunns29) November 5, 2015"

Carl Nassib is a name I'm asked about often, probably due to his eye-opening stats at defensive end. He has 13.5 sacks already this year, and as a first-year starter, people see a lot of potential from his tape. When I view Nassib, I see a limited athlete with marginal strength is his lower body. He's a very stiff bender and isn't an agile mover in space—things he'll have to do in the NFL as an edge defender. I would compare him to Margus Hunt or Trent Murphy as a prospect, but I don't value him as a top-90 player.

1. I'm going to complain about something here, so forgive me, but it has to be said.

Too often I see tweets and articles talking about how an NFL team is visiting a college or a college game. You've seen them too. "Twenty NFL teams scouting Baylor vs. TCU!" I understand we work largely in a click-based industry, but it's not news that NFL scouts are attending football games. It would be news if no teams were attending, but telling fans that their favorite team is sending scouts to a game is the biggest duh! tweet you can send.

NFL teams have area scouts, and those scouts must attend every college game in their area if it's a Priority 1 (Power Five) or Priority 2 (bigger, better non-Power Five schools). It's not news that a scout is looking at Central Michigan or Florida International or North Dakota State. But every weekend these tweets and articles come out. I'm guilty of it too, but can we stop acting like this is a huge news story or really more than a footnote on the game?

The only thing worse than this? When media members or outlets say NFL teams are attending a game to scout one player. Unless it's a particularly awful game, chances are the teams aren't scouting one player, but upward of 10 or 20.

Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.