Fantasy Football Duds Ready to Bounce Back in Week 6

After three weeks of the fantasy season, I found myself telling everyone not to overreact to the early struggles of top draft picks. If you were patient with a player such as Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett, he rewarded you with two strong games in Weeks 4 and 5.

If you stuck with someone such as Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson, the results didn’t improve, and you’re seriously thinking about cutting him or have already done so because you decided five weeks is too long to wait for a player you expected to carry your team.

With five weeks behind us, any thoughts of the preseason should be gone, and draft status no longer matters. Some of you may be rolling with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton over Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning without thinking about it twice. That probably sounded insane in early September, yet it is completely justified heading into Week 6.

I’ll be focusing on the players who’ve gotten off to slow starts but have likely remained on fantasy rosters because they’ve produced enough to justify keeping them, even if they haven’t lived up to high expectations.

When it comes to injuries, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans has struggled to get into any kind of groove after sitting out the opener with a hamstring injury. Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy hurt his ankle in Week 2 and is going through a rough patch early on for the third straight year.

Others have frustrated for various reasons, some of which have nothing to do with them. Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce came into the season with top-three potential at the position, but he’s not involved enough in the offense even though the Chiefs lack talent and depth in the receiving corps.

Patience has brought you to this spot in the season with Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jordan Matthews still on your team. I’ll tell you why he and others belong in your starting lineups this week and going forward.

Jordan Matthews

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While the Philadelphia Eagles struggled through two early losses to open the season, wide receiver Jordan Matthews managed to avoid those struggles. He opened the season with 10 receptions for 102 yards on 13 targets in Week 1 and followed that up with six receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown on nine targets in Week 2.

The losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys to start this year put the Eagles in a hole. They started climbing out by hanging in there to beat the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium, but Matthews had just six receptions for 49 yards on eight targets in that game. After a loss to the Washington Redskins in Week 4, Matthews owners expressed concern since he was limited to three receptions for 50 yards on eight targets.

That was the first game where quarterback Sam Bradford looked somewhat sharp, although it took a half of bad football to get to that point. Following that loss, the Eagles were lucky enough to host a beatable New Orleans Saints defense in Week 5. They played their most complete game to date and won. Matthews failed to come through with strong numbers, though, finishing with five receptions for 44 yards on seven targets.

Through five weeks, Matthews is 21st among wide receivers with 68.5 fantasy points but isn’t even in the top 25 of average fantasy points per game. For someone who was drafted to be no worse than a top WR2, those numbers are disappointing.

The good news is he’s not going anywhere. Matthews is 17th at the position with 45 targets. He’s also one of nine receivers with at least seven targets in each of the first five games. Matthews also leads all Eagles skill players (besides Bradford) in offensive snaps.

So is the turnaround coming this week? The matchup against the New York Giants certainly sets up well for Matthews to come through with his first strong fantasy performance since Week 2. The Giants have been average against wide receivers, but they’ve also faced the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills (minus Sammy Watkins) and Washington Redskins (minus DeSean Jackson) in the last three weeks.

The Giants took a huge hit this week when cornerback Prince Amukamara went down with a partial tear in his pectoral area that could keep him out three to four weeks, per Josina Anderson of ESPN. The loss is a big one for New York but boosts Matthews’ chances in Week 6.

Bumping Matthews down into more of a WR3 spot in your fantasy lineup has been justified in recent weeks, but you’ll be moving him back up after this week and keeping him there since the Eagles look like they’re finally heading in the right direction. That’s great for Matthews.

Eddie Lacy

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I considered Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy a legit choice to be the top fantasy back this season. Despite slow starts related to concussions in his first two seasons, he still managed to finish as a RB1 in each of those years.

There’s been no concussion to worry about, but Lacy is off to another slow start, and it’s fair to wonder if it’s related to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 2. While the injury wasn’t serious enough to keep Lacy out the following three weeks, he still hasn’t produced at a high level. 

Could it be that the Packers have played it safe with Lacy’s ankle and intentionally limited his role in the offense because they know they have more than enough with quarterback Aaron Rodgers leading the passing game? That would make sense, and his usage over the last three weeks supports that argument.

In the first game after the ankle injury, James Starks outsnapped Lacy 40-31. Lacy took the lead back in the last two games, 41-25 in Week 4 and 38-27 in Week 5. For the season, he has just nine more offensive snaps than Starks at 164-155. That’s pretty close to an even split and may be by design.

Over those last three games, Lacy has a carry lead of 41-31 over Starks, while Starks leads in targets, nine to seven. During that span, Lacy ran for 163 yards and averaged four yards per carry. His busiest game of that stretch came in Week 4 against the San Francisco 49ers. He ran 18 times for 90 yards and caught one of three targets for three yards.

My assumption is that the Packers have made a conscious effort to limit how much they use Lacy to make sure he’s fully healthy and ready to produce at a high level late in the season. According to the standings, that plan is working because the team is 5-0.

Rodgers gave credit to the defense and said the offense has “been struggling the last couple of weeks,” per Packers.com. Might that be because Lacy hasn’t been a big factor? This would be a good week to change that since the San Diego Chargers have given up the second-most fantasy points to running backs but the 10th-fewest fantasy points to QBs and third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.

It would make sense to get Lacy going against a defense that’s allowed at least 100 rushing yards to running backs in their last four games. If Lacy is looking to get back to the RB1 we’ve seen so much of over the last two years, Week 6 would be a great time to start.

Mike Evans

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw wide receiver Mike Evans overcome a shaky quarterback situation last year to become one of the most dangerous players at the position on a bad team. Surely, he’d be able to handle working with rookie QB Jameis Winston after surviving Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, right?

Unfortunately, Winston had to make his NFL debut without Evans on the field thanks to a hamstring injury the second-year wide receiver suffered in the preseason. Even though he missed just that one game, Evans has just one strong fantasy performance, posting seven receptions for 107 yards on 17 targets in Week 3.

He came back in Week 2 but failed to record a catch on his three targets in a beatable matchup against the Saints in New Orleans. After the strong performance against the Houston Texans in Week 3, Evans has managed just six receptions for 73 yards on 13 targets in games against the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Buccaneers are tied for the 10th-fewest pass attempts at 110, but they’re tied for the third-most rushing attempts at 151. Because running back Doug Martin has played well and responded well to the biggest role we’ve seen him play in years, it’s given the team a way to limit how much it asks of its rookie quarterback. That might be helpful for Winston’s development, but it’s torpedoing Evans’ fantasy value.

While it may not mean a whole lot, Evans has been outsnapped by Vincent Jackson in every game this season, including 90 percent to 62 percent in last week’s win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Might Evans still be dealing with that hamstring injury? Just because he’s come back from it doesn’t mean it’s fully healed or will be at any point this season.

However, the best chance for that to happen is this week with the Buccaneers on a bye. He’ll come back to face the Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys, and all of those teams are at least somewhat vulnerable against the pass.

Running the ball is a wise move by the Buccaneers as long as it keeps working, but teams will start stacking the box and forcing Winston to throw more. When that begins, look for business to pick up for Evans. He’s too good to keep this quiet for much longer, and both the Buccaneers and the opposition know that.

He may not get back to WR1 territory, but he can still be a strong WR2 this year. He'll be back in action next week against a beatable Redskins secondary.

Lamar Miller

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Can the coaching changes for the Miami Dolphins turn running back Lamar Miller into a fantasy asset once again? If interim head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor want to stick around beyond 2015, Miller should get a lot more chances starting this week, although it doesn’t mean he’ll produce.

I’ll get more into that matchup against the Tennessee Titans, but first how did we get to such a frustrating point with Miller? 

Last year, he averaged 5.1 yards per carry on 216 carries for 1,099 yards and eight touchdowns. He also caught 38 passes for 275 yards and a touchdown on 52 targets. That’s a productive and busy RB2 with RB1 potential. Why would you get away from that if you’re the Dolphins?

This season, Miller has just 37 carries for 131 yards (3.5 yards per carry) and 10 receptions for 87 yards on 12 targets. He’s failed to reach the end zone. The Dolphins rank dead last in the league with 65 carries, yet they’re averaging 4.3 yards per carry.

Maybe run it more, specifically with Miller? Just a suggestion.

The Dolphins had and could still have trouble in just about every facet of the game, which is why it makes even more sense to fall back on what they can do well. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill would benefit from a commitment to running the ball, as it provide more balance to the offense and take some pressure off him to carry the majority of the offense.

It sounds like Campbell gets it; according to comments made by Miller to the Miami Herald, the coach told the team it needs to run the ball and stop the run. Miller also took blame for his 3.5 yards per carry, saying he's been too patient and needs to be more decisive.

Everyone is saying the right things, but will the Dolphins have success when implementing these changes? For Miller, it won’t be easy. The Titans have held running backs to the sixth-fewest fantasy points. They’ve held three of their four opponents to less than 100 running back rushing yards.

It’s not a great matchup to get Miller going again, but after such a slow start that can be blamed on a lack of touches, the first priority is to recommit to running the football. Miller may only put up numbers worthy of being an RB3/flex, but the key is for him to get more than the 9.25 carries he’s averaged up to this point.

Travis Kelce

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Frustration describes what every Travis Kelce owner has gone through this season, in what was supposed to be his jump into the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends. He hasn’t been a bad fantasy asset, but he hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations set by me and many others coming into the season.

However, unlike Eddie Lacy being underutilized for an undefeated Packers team, Kelce isn’t getting enough targets, and the Kansas City Chiefs are 1-4. They’ve scored just 117 points in those five games, and their lone win came in Kelce’s best fantasy performance back in Week 1 against the Houston Texans.

Is that a coincidence? Highly unlikely.

Since posting six receptions for 106 yards and two touchdowns on six targets in the opener, Kelce has topped five receptions and 60 yards in just one other game, a loss to the Packers in what was the second-highest point total for the Chiefs (28). Once again, not a surprise. Kelce hasn’t been back in the end zone since Week 1, but that will have to change if the Chiefs have any chance of saving their season. 

In Week 5, the team was dealt a crushing blow when running back Jamaal Charles tore his ACL in a non-contact injury. While the team will likely turn to a committee lead by Charcandrick West, losing a playmaker means it needs to lean on its best talent. After Charles, that’s Kelce and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin.

Through five games, Kelce is tied for fourth with 34 targets and in total fantasy points (68.8). When you look at fantasy points per game, he drops to seventh at 13.8. These aren’t bad numbers, but they should be better for someone of Kelce’s talent, and you really can’t blame him when the team refuses to find other ways to get him involved.

The loss of Charles puts Kelce directly in the spotlight, which should mean an uptick in his targets and role in the offense. Kansas City’s pass defense is one of the worst in the league, which means the team will need to score more to stay in games. Having a great fantasy player on a team with a bad defense is always a boost.

The schedule looks great for Kelce over the next month with a matchup in Minnesota against the Vikings this week, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos. None of those teams ranks in the top 10 when it comes to defending fantasy tight ends, with the Steelers and Lions checking in as bottom-six defenses against the position. Kelce should have plenty of chances to emerge as a top-three tight end option for the season.

C.J. Anderson

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I’ve saved the hardest sell for last.

If you drafted Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson, at worst you expected a strong RB2, but many selected him to be their RB1. Through five games, he’s not even a top-50 fantasy running back, which has led to his removal from many starting lineups, trades and even drops from fantasy owners who were sick of waiting for him to come around.

The anger about this situation is justifiable. Anderson has 139 yards on 54 carries, which comes out to a putrid 2.6 yards per carry. He's added just nine receptions for 75 yards on 13 targets. Anderson has failed to rush for more than 43 yards in any game but also hasn’t had more than 12 carries in any game.

Ronnie Hillman is a name Anderson owners have learned to hate. While Hillman hasn’t been that impressive save for a few flashes here and there, he’s done more than Anderson, and that’s made the coaching staff take notice. Outperforming Anderson doesn’t take much, and Hillman isn’t getting many more chances. He’s had double-digit carries in just two games and topped 50 rushing yards just once.

For all the concern about Hillman stealing touches and snaps from Anderson, he has eight fewer carries and eight fewer targets. Anderson has also outsnapped Hillman in every game with the margin being as close as six snaps (Week 4) and as wide as 40 snaps (Week 1). In Week 5, Anderson saw 33 snaps to Hillman’s 21.

According to Mike Klis of 9news.com, Hillman tweaked his hamstring early in the fourth quarter of last week’s win over the Oakland Raiders. He hasn’t been on the injury report all week and is in line to face the Cleveland Browns in Week 6.

That brings me to why Anderson deserves one more shot in your lineup. The Browns have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. In four of their five games, opposing running backs have run for at least 150 yards. Denver’s passing attack is far from dominant, which means the offense as a whole really isn’t producing. The 5-0 start has a lot to do with the defense, which may be the best in the league.

Because the Broncos apparently still trust Anderson to give him more snaps and touches, he should still get the best chance to take advantage of what looks to be a juicy matchup against the Browns on Sunday. If you’ve stuck with him for this long, you might as well put him out there one more time. Anderson should produce if he gets 12-15 carries, but if he doesn’t, hope is probably lost for his fantasy season.

Fantasy leaders and targets provided by FantasyPros.com. Team stats provided by NFL.com. Snap counts provided by ProFootballFocus.com.