Mike Freeman's 10-Point Stance: Angry Tom Brady and Other Predictions
The start of the season is just hours away. That requires a special 10-Point Stance in which I make mostly nonsensical and dumbass predictions, with a few moderately intelligent ones mixed in.
Feel free to throw the predictions in my face later. Happy NFL season and see you in the Hamptons.
1. The Patriots will dominate again
TOP NEWS
NFL coach rips CFB transfer portal
Final Consensus NFL Mock Draft 📝
.jpg?w=256 "NFL Combine Football")
Cardinals May Be Bluffing Pick
I checked in with a Patriots player I speak to occasionally, this time after a federal judge tossed out Tom Brady's four-game suspension. He was joyous and, as he has been before, succinct. His words were still powerful.
"I think everyone feels like Tom was targeted and this whole thing was personal," the player said. "I think because of that, you're going to see the best Brady you've ever seen."
On the outside, the Patriots promote an image of business and cool. Nothing appears to rattle them. Nothing seems to shake them. They are the steadiest, most disciplined organization in all of sports. No other organization comes close.
This isn't to debate Brady's innocence or guilt. That's been done enough. This is about the aftereffects. I can't emphasize this enough: From the top of the organization to the last man on the roster to the ticket-desk worker to the parking-lot attendant, the Patriots are coming into this season with a feeling that they have been wrongly persecuted.
We've heard this before. I've written this before. But it cannot be stated enough. This is one pissed-off organization.
As a result, I think it'll ride that anger to another Super Bowl. I know, I know. Emotion can only carry you so far. But that emotion is on top of talent. They have Bill Belichick and Brady and a defense that people around the sport keep telling me is better than I think.
The Patriots' season will unfold like this: They will start 5-0 or 4-1, then the Deflated past eight months will finally take their toll at some point in the middle of the season, and an emotionally drained team will lose a couple in a row. After they get past that bump, they will take off like a rocket.
It will all be typical Belichick. Typical Brady. Typical Patriots.
Sorry, Patriots haters. Gonna be a long year for you.
2. Aaron Rodgers will be the offensive MVP
This prediction is made with all due respect to Jordy Nelson, who is out for the season with a shattered knee. I like Nelson a great deal; why wouldn't you? But I think Aaron Rodgers is playing on such a high level now, he can turn any receiver into a great one.
What Rodgers will do is transform another one of his targets into a Nelson approximation. That's all he needs. Not a copy. An approximation.
He'll find it, and that offense will set records.
More importantly for the Packers, the defense will be markedly improved. By the time this season is over, after Rodgers faces Brady in the Super Bowl, many of us will be saying Rodgers took the position in an entirely new direction. It'll be historic.
3. Cam Newton won't survive the season
One of the best stories in football over the past two or three years is how Cam Newton—despite taking a massive beating, week in and week out—continues to be productive. How he leaves games standing is often a shock in itself.
This isn't wishing Newton gets hurt. Of course that's not my point. This is about the reality of an organization that has failed to surround him with top weapons, weapons that are as talented and effective as, well, Newton himself. It's the reality of not making that offensive line better.
The receivers Newton is playing with Week 1...I mean, no offense, but holy crap they are awful.
There are very few star-caliber quarterbacks in football less protected than Newton, both in terms of his line and in terms of having other players for opposing defenses to focus on.
Eventually, the physical pounding that Newton takes has to catch up to him. I think that happens this season. Hopefully I'm wrong.
4. Marcus Mariota will outplay Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota might be better than Jameis Winston. Might be. But that's not why he'll outplay him this year. He'll outplay him because the Titans have a slightly better team around him and Mariota has made the transition from the slick, college-y offense he ran at Oregon to pocket passer really well.
I also think Winston's delivery will give him a little more trouble in the pros, at least initially. This isn't 100 percent, but often defenses feed off young throwers with huge, looping deliveries like Winston's. No, this isn't terminal, and Winston will still be good, but defenses will be able to do a lot in picking apart Winston's throwing motion.
On ESPN, analyst Merril Hoge said this about Winston: "Winston is a lumbering, slow-twitch, slow-footed quarterback."
Well, I don't think quite that.
But that throwing motion will be a problem, at least initially. One thing you can look for are pass-rushers to swipe at the football and try to knock it loose.
Again, Winston will be good, but he'll be behind Mariota in terms of development.
5. Washington and the 49ers will battle for first draft pick
There's little question Washington will stink out loud. It's just a question of how bad it'll be. First-pick bad? Probably, but there will be some competition from the 49ers.
One of the big surprises this season will be just how bad the 49ers are. They will take a significant step back. It will be a temporary one, I think. This will not be a slide that lasts a decade. But it will be a slide.
As much of a pain in the ass as Jim Harbaugh could be—and he was a major one—his ability to coach is as good as almost anyone in the sport. Practically Belichickian. He had his faults. He never fully developed Colin Kaepernick. He burned out people around him. But he will be hard to replace.
This season, you will see just how much he meant to that franchise. Count on two or three wins, at most.
6. The relationship between the union and the league will get worse—far worse
There was an interesting moment this weekend on a political talk show that many may have missed. It was a signal the relationship between the union and the NFL—specifically DeMaurice Smith and Roger Goodell—will get worse. Not better.
It happened during the Melissa Harris-Perry show on MSNBC. She had Smith on to discuss some of the latest issues in the NFL. It was a smart conversation by all.
At the end of the conversation, Harris-Perry, a football fan, said they were running out of time in the segment and she hadn't gotten to ask her question about whether Goodell should go.
Smith replied: "You probably know what I'd say."
Smith might say he was joking, but it sure didn't look like it.
And this is where we are. I think, unfortunately, this is where we will be as long as this commissioner and this union head are in place.
I know there's been media speculation that owners might address the issue of if Goodell has too much power. Maybe the owners can force change. Maybe they can force Goodell to sit down with Smith.
My prediction is that won't happen. I don't believe the relationship between Goodell and Smith will ever get better.
7. There will be a major organizational change in Cleveland
Let's just go over a few things:
• The team's general manager, Ray Farmer, was suspended for texting.
• The franchise drafted Johnny Manziel. He's getting better, for sure, but picking him that high—22nd overall, ahead of Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr—in 2014 was a disaster.
• On the one-year anniversary of Ray Rice's contract being terminated by the Ravens, the Browns suspended their offensive line coach, according to ESPN's Pat McManamon, for an alleged assault against a female guest at the coach's home.
While I once thought this new Browns administration knew what it was doing, I was wrong.
There are worse situations in the league, sure, but not many. Not many at all.
At some point, Browns ownership has to say enough. I think that happens at some point this season. Particularly if the Browns struggle again.
8. Nick Saban will flirt with NFL teams...then stay at Alabama
First, is there a chance the Colts let Chuck Pagano go? The answer: Of course there is. They didn't give him an extension heading into the last year of his deal. That turned Pagano into a lame-duck coach.
While often friction between general managers and coaches is overblown, it's been known for some time around the sport that Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson have been at odds. That friction is not overblown.
If Pagano is let go—and this is admittedly still a huge if—look for Alabama's Nick Saban to emerge as a candidate. Because Saban always is a candidate for big coaching jobs. Because he likes to be chased and there will be an NFL team that will chase him. One might be the Colts.
I wouldn't be shocked if Saban/his agent/confidant/friend also flirted with the Giants if Tom Coughlin retires or they fail to make the playoffs and Coughlin is dismissed.
We know how Saban handled things when he was at Miami, which was horribly. He also handled things a little, well, strangely with the University of Texas.
Saban doesn't strike me as the type of guy who has a lot of qualms about jumping ship. There's also the fact that if he went to Indianapolis, he'd have something that he didn't in Miami: a franchise quarterback.
But after the chase, after the flirting, expect Saban to stay put. This time. Unless he doesn't.
9. John Fox won't fix Jay Cutler
Because no one can.
That is what John Fox will realize, and after this season, the Bears will cut Jay Cutler. They'll have had enough. Can't blame them.
Then, I wouldn't be shocked to see Cutler end up as a backup in New England or Philadelphia.
10. Tom Brady will retire
And we come full circle, back to the man at the center of the biggest story of the offseason.
Brady is 38 years old. If he wins a Super Bowl, he will have won a historic case against the NFL and captured his fifth championship. What else would there be for him to do? He is, to me, already the best quarterback ever. Another title would further cement that.
Even if Brady reaches the Super Bowl and loses to the Packers, he will have reached his seventh Super Bowl, which would be, well, pretty amazing in its own right.
Part of these calculations will be—here's that word again—Deflategate. The NFL's appeal will keep moseying through the system and could take months. Theoretically, it's possible the NFL wins after the season has already unfolded, and the four-game suspension would come next season.
That's what somewhat occurred in the infamous StarCaps case. That took years to resolve. I don't think Brady's case will take that long, but it certainly could last the season.
I think if Brady reaches another Super Bowl, he'll realize he's done everything, and he won't let the Deflategate court case hang over his head. Brady will want to control his own future, not allow the NFL to do it. He'll walk away as the best ever, and then the Jimmy Garoppolo era will begin.
Mike Freeman covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
.jpg?w=480 "NFL Combine Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Cowboys Draft Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Jets Likely Passing on Simpson")
