2015 Super Bowls Odds: Fresh Update Post Draft
"Our team got better in the draft..."
That phrase—or something like it—is one of the most regurgitated, hackneyed platitudes by general managers, coaches, teams and their fans around NFL draft season. It doesn't mean anything...not a single thing.
Of course the team got better.
Every team got better.
The draft is the perfect exercise in cheap labor acquisition. If a team doesn't get better in the draft, it means it either didn't have any picks or purposefully used them on scrubs. It doesn't matter if a franchise hits on every pick or busts on every single one. The draft is cheap talent, and every team is better the day after the draft than it was the day before it.
What matters, of course, is to what degree the team gets better and what that degree is in relation to its peers—both those they face in the upcoming year and those they may "race" around playoff time toward a division title or wild-card spot.
Your team got better, but so did every other squad. So, to help get a handle on the horse race, here are updated Super Bowl odds for the 2015 season. They're based off real Vegas odds from OddsShark.com and then moved around slightly to account for draft results.
Like real Vegas odds, there are multiple teams that have the same odds, and we didn't assess clubs based on whether or not they would beat one another one-on-one, but rather which teams would have the best shot of surviving the regular season to win a Super Bowl.
Disagree with the odds or the rankings? Leave yours in the comments below.
Tennessee Titans
1 of 32
2014 Record: 2-14
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Marcus Mariota (QB), Dorial Green-Beckham (WR), Tre McBride (WR)
Mariota was a fine prospect and the top quarterback on my board, but the fit in Tennessee is a slight cause for concern. Though head coach Ken Whisenhunt has had varying types of quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers, all of them have still been (mostly) traditional dropback passers. He will need to vastly alter his scheme, which is certainly possible but could create speed bumps.
As for Mariota, his intelligence, leadership and work ethic will all help to bridge the gap, but this will be vastly new territory for him as well.
Thankfully, the Titans have two new receivers in DGB and McBride who could help in that regard. The former is a huge risk-reward prospect due to character concerns, and the latter should've been drafted far, far sooner.
Still, this is the beginning of something that might be good. However, there's little chance these moves pay dividends immediately, if at all.
Super Bowl Odds: 200-1
Jacksonville Jaguars
2 of 32
2014 Record: 3-13
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Dante Fowler Jr. (DE), T.J. Yeldon (RB), Rashad Greene (WR)
The Jaguars had, quietly, one of the better drafts in the NFL.
Though I'm a big fan of Fowler, I'm not 100 percent sure that would've been my pick in the same circumstance. Defensive tackle Leonard Williams is a better overall player, while pass-rusher Vic Beasley offered just a bit more from a pure rushing perspective. Yet, Fowler is a franchise-defining pick and should be able to not only make an immediate impact but make just about everyone around him better.
Later on, the pickups of Yeldon and Greene added two workhorse-caliber offensive stars, as Yeldon should be able to work his way toward (if not to) the top of the running back depth chart in a hurry, and Greene has the route-running and ball skills to potentially be the steal of the draft.
Super Bowl Odds: 100-1
Washington
3 of 32
2014 Record: 4-12
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Brandon Scherff (OG/OT), Arie Kouandjio (OT/OG), Preston Smith (LB/DE)
Safe is not always good.
Let me be clear: Scherff was one of the top players in the draft and was a fantastic pick for Washington. But look back at some of the "safest" players in draft history and names like Robert Gallery and Aaron Curry. I am not, in any way, predicting that Scherff ends up busting like either of those men, but there's a pervasive idea that some players are somehow "bust-proof," and that's just never the case.
Frankly, Scherff's success in the NFL will depend a lot on where Washington plays him (he's a better guard than right tackle prospect) and the caliber of linemen it surrounds him with. Kouandjio, who has looked like a top lineman at times on tape, could be one of those quality guys around him.
On the defensive side of the ball, Smith wasn't talked up a lot in the predraft process, but his projection (like Scherff) will likely depend a lot on where Washington plays him because he has more tools than polish at this point.
Overall, Washington was hoping for a quantity draft, and many of the players are unlikely to make any sort of real immediate impact. But the hope is that the front office hit on a decent percentage and made enough picks to make up for any misses.
Ultimately, in 2015 and beyond, the success of this team is going to depend on quarterback Robert Griffin III and how the help Washington is trying to put around him allows him to get back to rookie form.
Super Bowl Odds: 100-1
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4 of 32
2014 Record: 2-14
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Jameis Winston (QB), Ali Marpet (C), Kenny Bell (WR)
It's all about Winston.
If Winston succeeds, this draft is going to catapult the Buccaneers into the forefront of the NFC South discussion for years to come—though, probably not in 2015 if we're being realistic. They grabbed a number of players, Marpet, Bell and offensive tackle Donovan Smith included, to give Winston all the help he needs. Add in last year's class, and this is starting to look like a solid (if young) offensive group.
With the caveat repeated from the last slide that nothing is a sure thing, it's important that expectations be tempered with Winston and the rest of the Buccaneers for a season or two. Last year was Year 1 of a rebuilding project, and it clearly stalled, so this is almost like 1b.
Assuming Winston is the guy, they're still a ways off.
If he's not the guy, we can start picking out a new head coach and general manager in a few years.
Super Bowl Odds: 100-1
Oakland Raiders
5 of 32
2014 Record: 3-13
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Amari Cooper (WR), Ben Heeney (LB)
If the Buccaneers' draft was all about Winston, then the Raiders' was similarly about last year's rookie sensation, quarterback Derek Carr. Adding Cooper (my top wideout in the class) and tight end Clive Walford should both help Carr, who lacked for targets last year.
Heeney was a great value in the fifth round and may have a chance to step into the defense right away. If not, he should be a special teams ace as he matures into a defensive role. Having linebacker guru Jack Del Rio at head coach should help.
The bump up to 75-1 odds here represents a bit more faith in Carr than the quarterbacks earlier on the list. The Raiders are not that much better of a team than the previous four squads, but they would have an easier shot of catching lightning in the proverbial bottle as they're a year further along in the rebuilding process.
Super Bowl Odds: 75-1
Cleveland Browns
6 of 32
2014 Record: 7-9
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Cameron Erving (OL), Duke Johnson (RB), Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (CB)
I liked but didn't love the pick of defensive tackle Danny Shelton, as he's more of a developmental prospect than many realize and probably should've been lower in the first regardless of his workout numbers or size (6'2", 339 lbs). Erving is the Browns' center of the future, though, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he ends up interning elsewhere on the line in the meantime.
Johnson has a chance to be the face of this draft class, as he is a supremely talented runner and should quickly ascend toward the top of the Browns depth chart behind that talented offensive line.
Ekpre-Olomu shouldn't have been available in Round 7, even coming off a torn ACL, as he's likely to step into a nickel corner role as soon as he's healthy and his conditioning is up to snuff.
The question mark here is at quarterback, and the Browns are unlikely to do anything of note until that position works itself out. The reason they're in this slightly better-than-putrid slot along with the Oakland Raiders is their record last season combined with what should be an improving run game and defense. That alone could be worth an almost-.500 record again in 2015.
Super Bowl Odds: 75-1
Minnesota Vikings
7 of 32
2014 Record: 7-9
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Trae Waynes (CB), Eric Kendricks (LB), T.J. Clemmings (OT)
The defense is starting to take shape in head coach Mike Zimmer's image, and Waynes' athleticism and physicality is a huge part of that. He was my top corner in the draft class, and while he'll likely make some mistakes in his rookie year and definitely needs to watch the holding and illegal contact, he should start immediately and make an impact.
Kendricks, too, should start right away next to former UCLA teammate and fellow linebacker Anthony Barr.
Clemmings, as well as later-round picks Tyrus Thompson and Austin Shepherd, is unlikely to start anytime soon for the Vikings, but they will provide needed depth (and competition) at both tackle positions as the production on the perimeter of the line has not been up to snuff in recent years.
If the defense improves markedly in 2015, and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater takes another step forward, this team has a chance to turn some heads.
Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
Houston Texans
8 of 32
2014 Record: 9-7
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Jaelen Strong (WR), Christian Covington (DT/DE)
The irony of the Texans' draft class is that it wasn't that exciting of a group overall, as cornerback Kevin Johnson is a bit undersized (6'0, 188 lbs) and injury-prone to really love as a first-round prospect (though, he could be very good). Also, linebacker Benardrick McKinney should contribute but isn't an inspiring pick as he's not a great athlete. Yet, the Texans grabbed two of my absolute favorite players rounds after they should've been selected.
Strong has a real chance to be one of the top receivers in this stacked class, while Covington's first step and pass-rushing ability should fit nicely across from J.J. Watt.
This is still a .500 team, give or take a win or two, and I'm not sure this class does much to change that in 2015, even if it turns out Houston batted 1.000.
Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
Chicago Bears
9 of 32
2014 Record: 5-11
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Kevin White (WR), Hroniss Grasu (C)
A big part of this odds jump from their win-loss total last season is the new coaching staff, which should be able to lead the Bears much more effectively than the last group. Seriously, its not just John Fox (who was one of the best head coaches in the NFL both of the last two times he's been fired), but also the staff he's put around him with offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
The staff, alone, is worth a two-win boost.
The addition of White gives the Bears help in the absence of Brandon Marshall, who is now with the Jets. Though White is still a little rough around the edges, he's a great vertical threat with an impressive catch radius that is a great pairing with quarterback Jay Cutler.
Grasu should be the starting center sooner rather than later.
Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
New York Jets
10 of 32
2014 Record: 4-12
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Leonard Williams (DE)
Jets fans weren't exactly happy when I picked their team as a "loser" of the draft, but this is a far more uninspiring class than the warm fuzzies emanating from a new general manager would lead fans to believe.
Williams, though one of the most talented players in the class, is—at best—what they already have in Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson. Can all three be used together? Sure, in certain sets, but this is a top-10 pick who is suddenly playing a more limited role or kicking out one of the best players in the NFL.
After that...crickets.
Pass-rusher Lorenzo Mauldin isn't a great athlete and is unlikely to match his college production. Bryce Petty looks like a quarterback, sure, but he only has bare-minimum tools and is coming from an offense that could be printed on a napkin.
The Jets have a good new head coach in Todd Bowles and had a great free-agency period, so they've made it to the bottom of the middle class in these rankings, but the draft didn't do much to help them.
Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
New Orleans Saints
11 of 32
2014 Record: 7-9
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Andrus Peat (OL), P.J. Williams (CB/S)
Two of the Saints' biggest issues last season were protecting quarterback Drew Brees (not necessarily giving up sacks as much as not allowing plays to develop) and rushing the opposing passer. Overall, both offensive and defensive units failed to get much done as they couldn't accomplish those basic tasks.
Big Andrus Peat can play a number of offensive line positions and will immediately be an improvement in pass protection. On the other side of the ball, Williams may not be a pass-rusher, but he's a talented, tough defensive back who will provide pressure by helping lock down targets and won't allow teams to get easy yards.
The Saints' recommitment to the run game this offseason could result in a much bigger leap than this by midseason, but it has reshuffled the deck so much, it's impossible to be very confident.
Super Bowl Odds: 40-1
Miami Dolphins
12 of 32
2014 Record: 8-8
Best 2015 Draft Picks: DeVante Parker (WR), Jay Ajayi (RB)
Another year, another crop of helpers for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. This time, it comes in the form of one of the draft's top wide receivers and a running back who could have been a second-round pick if not for concerns about his knee. Ajayi may have a shortened career, but if he can give the Dolphins a good effort for a contract or two, he could seriously upgrade their running game.
The Dolphins' lackluster Super Bowl odds aren't necessarily in line with how good they could be this season, but there's a bit of a "show me" factor here—especially with a team that has overturned the roster so much in recent years and has never really been anywhere close to the mountaintop. Being in the same division with two improving teams in Buffalo and New York, as well as the Patriots, doesn't really help, either.
The pieces are there. Let's see how they all fit together.
Super Bowl Odds: 40-1
St. Louis Rams
13 of 32
2014 Record: 6-10
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Todd Gurley (RB), Rob Havenstein (OL)
This prediction is, admittedly, a shot in the dark.
The Rams are a completely different team, at least offensively, from last season. Quarterback Nick Foles is an unknown commodity outside of Chip Kelly's scheme, and the addition of Gurley and a host of offensive linemen on a completely rebuilt line can completely change the way this team operates. Add in a second-year back like Tre Mason, and the Rams could be four yards and a cloud of dust en route to a wild-card spot if things line up the right way.
It will be hard to gain traction in the tough NFC West, but this looks like a much more physical team offensively, and that should help immensely.
Super Bowl Odds: 40-1
New York Giants
14 of 32
2014 Record: 6-10
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Landon Collins (S), Owa Odighizuwa (DE)
While I didn't mind the pick of offensive tackle Ereck Flowers at No. 9 overall, it was a little early, and he's a bit of a project from a polish standpoint. He'll likely be a starter, however, thanks to the sorry state of the Giants line.
The next two picks, though—Collins and Odighizuwa—are both starters as well, and that's a heck of a crop for a team that needed a youth infusion and something to get it over the hump. I'm not sure if these picks do quite that much, but they certainly can't hurt.
Having wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. for a full season won't be so bad for the Giants, either.
Super Bowl Odds: 35-1
San Francisco 49ers
15 of 32
2014 Record: 8-8
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Arik Armstead (DL), Eli Harold (OLB), DeAndre Smelter (WR)
Though this offseason hasn't quite felt normal for the 49ers, this draft class was what we've come to expect in recent years: a few impact picks and a whole bunch of swinging for the fences with a quantity of picks that could pan out big in a few years.
Armstead and Harold should be able to slot into the defense pretty quickly thanks to losses on that side of the ball this offseason. Armstead will replace Justin Smith, who retired, though those are mighty big shoes to fill. Harold will likely be a situational pass-rusher.
Smelter is the perfect example of a 49ers "long con" draft pick. Right now, Smelter would be outclassed on an NFL field in a big way. Yet, with his size (6'2", 226 lbs), speed and catching ability (plus amazing blocking), he's a fantastic developmental pick. You might not hear his name again for two years, but if he pans out, you'll never forget it after that.
Still, as good as this draft was, we've seen good classes in recent years and the team still seems to be backsliding. The new coaching staff will have its work cut out for it in a tough NFC West.
Super Bowl Odds: 35-1
Buffalo Bills
16 of 32
2014 Record: 9-7
Best 2015 Draft Picks: John Miller (G), Nick O'Leary (TE)
Without a first-round pick, it can be difficult to really make a splash. But the Bills made a number of solid selections throughout the draft that could really pay dividends down the line.
Frankly, O'Leary may have been a late-round pick in 2015, but he's the kind of old-school tight end prospect who might have been a first-rounder 10-15 years ago. He plays with good leverage in both run and pass blocking and is a very capable receiver even though he won't create a ton of mismatches at the NFL level.
Miller should solidify the interior of the line to some degree—especially in run blocking right away.
There is little doubt that new head coach Rex Ryan can build a playoff contender in Buffalo, but the team is likely a year away (at least) for anything better than a one-and-done playoff appearance.
Super Bowl Odds: 35-1
Pittsburgh Steelers
17 of 32
2014 Record: 11-5
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Alvin "Bud" Dupree (OLB), Anthony Chickillo (DE/OLB), Gerod Holliman (S)
The first pick of this class was an absolutely perfect one. After years of the Steelers' needing to add a player just like this and not quite getting that in either Jarvis Jones or Ryan Shazier, the team's selection of Dupree—the most explosive player pound-for-pound in the class—elicited an exasperated "finally" from this analyst.
Sadly, the rest of the class was very lackluster until the later rounds, when they were able to get Chickillo and Holliman after a couple of surprising falls. Defensive lineman Leterrius Walton and tight end Jesse James have a shot to earn roles on the team, but no one is likely to have the impact of Dupree.
The two things deep-sixing these odds at the moment is upheaval on defense and Le'Veon Bell's three-game suspension, which could easily mean the difference between either a division win and a wild-card spot or a wild-card spot and missing the playoffs completely.
Super Bowl Odds: 33-1
San Diego Chargers
18 of 32
2014 Record: 9-7
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Melvin Gordon (RB)
The Chargers went for a quality-over-quantity aspect in the draft, trading up to get Gordon in the first round. Most of their other picks aren't going to have anywhere near the impact of Gordon, who can be a consistent four- to five-yard-per-carry rusher in the NFL.
A combination of Gordon and quarterback Philip Rivers to go with a hopefully rejuvenated Keenan Allen at wide receiver should be the start of something pretty special on offense. If the offensive line can take another step forward with a number of young players, how much more so!
The Chargers, really, just need to be more consistent. At times last season, they looked like one of the best teams in the NFL and then fell apart. If San Diego can keep things up in 2015, it has the talent to win the AFC West.
Super Bowl Odds: 33-1
Kansas City Chiefs
19 of 32
2014 Record: 9-7
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Marcus Peters (CB), Ramik Wilson (LB)
This was a quantity draft class, and the Chiefs needed one to bulk up depth in a number of positions. I was surprised that they didn't get more impactful line prospects, but their line has been so terrible at points in recent years, it's possible offensive tackle Mitch Morse gets a shot.
Peters, though, should be the exact kind of physical corner the Chiefs love, and as long as he continues to toe the line for this coaching staff, he can be a star. Wilson was a later-round pick, but he's a better player than his draft slot and should be able to make a living on special teams and early downs in the middle of the defense.
Super Bowl Odds: 33-1
Atlanta Falcons
20 of 32
2014 Record: 6-10
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Vic Beasley (DE), Jalen Collins (DB), Tevin Coleman (RB), Justin Hardy (WR), Grady Jarrett (DT)
If that "best picks" list looks like most of the Falcons draft class, that's because it is. The Falcons were, easily, the biggest winners of the draft in terms of grabbing the best players available and getting value at positions they could use. When one looks at this class through the filter of head coach Dan Quinn's new regime, it's clear the front office is letting Quinn have a ton of input in the kind of players he needs to make his defense run.
Those are five immediate-impact players.
The Falcons are still a year away from being a playoff team in most divisions, but they've got a much better shot in the NFC South because they have the talent of an eight- or nine-win team. Think back and remember just a few years ago what quarterback Matt Ryan and company are capable of, and it's more than possible this team could take all sorts of shortcuts back to the top.
Super Bowl Odds: 30-1
Detroit Lions
21 of 32
2014 Record: 11-5
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Laken Tomlinson (OG), Ameer Abdullah (RB), Alex Carter (CB)
First off, just take a look at that smile. That smile wins the draft.
The Lions are turning around their identity with this draft class after collecting two guards—Tomlinson and then veteran Manny Ramirez in a trade—and a speed running back to complement Joique Bell, who was already on the roster. This isn't going to be a "drop back 50 times a game" team anymore. No, the Lions are redoubling on the power of the offensive line and adding nuance to a squad that just tried to bludgeon people with wide receiver Calvin Johnson for the better part of a decade.
The Lions have lost some pieces this offseason, but their chances at the playoffs begin and end with quarterback Matthew Stafford and how the team makes this transition into a more balanced squad.
Super Bowl Odds: 28-1
Carolina Panthers
22 of 32
2014 Record: 7-8-1
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Devin Funchess (WR), Daryl Williams (OT)
Linebacker Shaq Thompson can probably grow into a fine player for the Panthers, but I have the sense that they'll use him mostly in sub-packages and heavy rotations, as they already can field an extremely deep, diverse defense without him.
The next two picks, though—Funchess and Williams—are potential impact players for the Panthers as they fit needs at receiver across from Kelvin Benjamin and at left tackle. Both are project players to an extent, but they have enough tools to contribute in small ways from Day 1.
Funchess is a near-perfect fit for the Panthers, who need big bodies with wide catch radii for quarterback Cam Newton.
The Panthers sneaked into the playoffs last year and were able to get a win against a decimated Arizona Cardinals team, but a little more improvement over last year's late-season defensive burst could put this squad in the playoffs once again in 2015.
Super Bowl Odds: 28-1
Philadelphia Eagles
23 of 32
2014 Record: 10-6
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Nelson Agholor (WR), Eric Rowe (CB)
The Eagles didn't have the biggest impact draft class, but Rowe should be able to play a solid role in that defensive backfield (for better or worse), and Agholor is sure to transition well as the best route-runner after Amari Cooper in the draft class.
This team will be defined by its free-agency crop and whether head coach Chip Kelly's hubris got the best of him. If quarterback Sam Bradford and the shaken-up running game can't continue to put up big numbers, there's little chance the Eagles live up to even these reserved expectations.
Super Bowl Odds: 28-1
Cincinnati Bengals
24 of 32
2014 Record: 10-5-1
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Cedric Ogbuehi (OT), Jake Fisher (OT), Josh Shaw (CB)
Shaw might be one of the shrewdest selections in the draft and is very much a Bengals-type pick, as they've often gone for athletic players with a bigger collegiate profile than draft stock. It's worked out for them, seeing that they've become a consistent playoff team (even if they haven't been able to clear that hump).
Speaking of that...
This draft is the logical extension of what the Bengals have done around quarterback Andy Dalton in recent years. In 2015, they've attempted to stockpile with crazy-athletic linemen in order to ensure they can field the best five-man line to protect their inconsistent passer.
Super Bowl Odds: 25-1
Baltimore Ravens
25 of 32
2014 Record: 10-6
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Maxx Williams (TE), Za'Darius Smith (DE/OLB)
With Williams and first-round pick Breshad Perriman (who is a good fit at wide receiver for the Ravens but was overdrafted by at least a round), the Ravens offense has a chance to be much more explosive in 2015. It all starts with the offensive line for this squad, and if that unit can continue to jell as it did for much of last year, quarterback Joe Flacco should have a pretty easy go of things with all of these weapons.
But this is Baltimore, and it's all about defense.
Smith and defensive tackle Carl Davis are both long shots to play truly significant roles in 2015, but both are more talented than their draft slot gives them credit for. Davis fell because of size, but Smith was just too lightly regarded for someone who has his pass-rush skills. It would not surprise me to see him rack up a handful of sacks in his rookie season.
Super Bowl Odds: 20-1
Arizona Cardinals
26 of 32
2014 Record: 11-5
Best 2015 Draft Picks: D.J. Humphries (OT), David Johnson (RB)
I have no doubt that the quarterback issues last season—not just losing starter Carson Palmer, but then backups as well—cost the Cardinals at least two or more games (including their wild-card matchup). This is a fantastic defense with a capable running game and a burgeoning offensive line.
The addition of Humphries and Johnson help those last two facets directly, but don't underestimate how it can help the defense as well. With Palmer out, the defense had to shoulder too much of the load. Adding Humphries will likely allow the team to shuffle the line around a bit, and Johnson might be the most talented pure runner on the roster. This, at least indirectly, will help the defense as well.
Last year, the Cardinals showed they could win games through the toughest of adversity. This year, they have to show they can both stay healthy and take the next step.
Super Bowl Odds: 18-1
Denver Broncos
27 of 32
2014 Record: 12-4
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Shane Ray (DE)
I didn't love the pick of Shane Ray...I didn't even really like it.
Even before the off-field incident that had Ray falling down draft boards, he was not the most impressive pass-rusher off that first tier. The production was always there at Missouri, but that's often a given in that scheme with that talent, and Ray was far less impressive for most of the past year than Kony Ealy was the year before. He's a single-move rusher with issues against bigger tackles.
This is a boom-or-bust pick.
After that, I like the Broncos' draft even less. Tight end Jeff Heuerman is likely to get lost in the shuffle, though he's a Gary Kubiak-style tight end, and offensive tackle Ty Sambrailo was a local pick when there was better talent on the board.
The Super Bowl chances have nothing to do with this class, though. Quarterback Peyton Manning is all that matters, along with how well the coaching staff marries its offense to his ability and gives him the help he needs at this stage of his career.
Super Bowl Odds: 14-1
Dallas Cowboys
28 of 32
2014 Record: 12-4
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Byron Jones (CB), Randy Gregory (OLB)
Pinch me, I'm dreaming.
The Cowboys might have had the best one-two draft-punch combo of the field this past weekend, grabbing Jones and Gregory. While every media person under the sun wanted a running back with one of those first two picks, the Cowboys never touched the position and made their defense worlds better.
Jones is a tiny risk as a potential workout warrior. He wasn't on anyone's radar before his massive combine leaping went on display, but going back to the tape showed a guy who has a ton of potential to be a long, physical corner. In defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli's Tampa 2 scheme, he could likely end up at safety, though, which may be an even better fit, as it would keep the ball in front of him.
Gregory, though, man...
I understand Gregory is undersized and has off-field issues, but the Cowboys can handle both of those. The latter, they've shown they can manage with wide receiver Dez Bryant, and the undersized aspect simply won't matter to Marinelli, who has turned guys with that same frame into superstars as the best defensive line guru in the league.
As long as the running game doesn't fall off too much, Dallas is a strong contender.
Super Bowl Odds: 10-1
Indianapolis Colts
29 of 32
2014 Record: 11-5
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Henry Anderson (DE), Josh Robinson (RB)
Much of the Colts' draft was disappointing and full of odd fits and reaches, but the two picks above not only stand out as great values and potential game-changers but actually swing my personal opinion of the Colts' draft back into positive territory, as they have the potential to be that good.
Anderson was a draftnik darling this year, and for good reason. He has the potential to step into the 3-4 defensive end position (as Indianapolis runs), stay there for 10 or more years and make a bunch of Pro Bowls. He's not a perfect prospect, duh, but he's a perfect fit for what the Colts needed there.
Robinson could very well get lost on the running back depth chart when they really needed a guy at the forefront for the long term. Though, he was probably the best third-down back left on the board when they selected him, and quarterback Andrew Luck should learn to love him as a receiver.
Like for many other of the teams at the top of this list, the class has less to do with the success of the team this season. Luck and Co. are putting a helluva team together and went all-in on free agency, picking up running back Frank Gore and Andre Johnson, who should both have a season or two left in them.
Super Bowl Odds: 8-1
New England Patriots
30 of 32
2014 Record: 12-4
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Malcom Brown (DT/DE), Tre' Jackson (G)
Let's be honest: A bunch of these picks won't play anything more than a cursory role, and the guy many of us expect the least will probably end up making a huge play to win a playoff game by 2017—that's the way the Patriots draft. Their board looks nothing like anyone else's, and they love it that way.
Brown will be a nice fit in their hybrid defense, and he could've easily gone 10 or more spots higher if the draft had fallen a different way. Jackson is nice depth on an offensive line that struggled to jell early on last season and may get shaken up significantly again for 2015.
The defensive losses are what bring the defending Super Bowl champs down from No. 1 to No. 3, but make no doubt that the Patriots are likely to be right back in the AFC playoffs next season and could be right back in the Super Bowl discussion as well.
Super Bowl Odds: 7-1
Green Bay Packers
31 of 32
2014 Record: 12-4
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Damarious Randall (S), Jake Ryan (LB)
General manager Ted Thompson stuck to his board, but there were some head-scratchers. Wide receiver Ty Montgomery is a plus returner but a running back in a wide receiver's body. He's like a severely poor man's Randall Cobb, whom the Packers kept around this offseason. Cornerback Quinten Rollins is a long shot to make an impact any time soon, and quarterback Brett Hundley will (hopefully) never play a snap.
Still, this is a team that develops homegrown talent as much as anyone, and it's not surprising to see them take players that need polish or tweaks to their game.
Randall is likely to play a lot of sub-package "big" corner situations and will be covering tight ends as much as he plays traditional safety in Green Bay. Ryan, at worst, should be a core special teams player with ability on run downs, but he's got the intangibles to be much more.
Super Bowl Odds: 15-2
Seattle Seahawks
32 of 32
2014 Record: 12-4
Best 2015 Draft Picks: Frank Clark (DE)
From a character perspective, it's easy to dislike the Clark pick, as he's dealt with domestic violence charges for most of the past year. Yet, from a purely on-field perspective, it's the exact type of pick one should expect the Seahawks to make. He could be a star pass-rusher for them by 2016, and play a role this season. He eventually pleaded guilty to a lesser charge of disorderly conduct, but that doesn't change the fact he's accused of being a dirtball whose character should have made him undrafted.
The rest of the draft has an underwhelming component to it, but the Seahawks have around Pro Bowlers in situations like that, so no one is doubting them here.
The biggest thing going for the Seahawks, though, is the addition of tight end Jimmy Graham and the return of running back Marshawn Lynch. The offensive line situation is troubling, but quarterback Russell Wilson can mitigate some of those concerns and this could be the best season of his career.
If that happens, the Seahawks are right back in the Super Bowl and we'll be talking the start of a dynasty.
Super Bowl Odds: 11-2
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