5 Realistic Trade Partners for New England Patriots in 2015 NFL Draft

Few teams are as strongly associated with the draft-day trade as the New England Patriots.  In an inherently unpredictable event, Bill Belichick's astute sense for valuation has given the Pats a leg up over the rest of the league.  Grantland's Bill Barnwell estimated that Belichick's 48 trades involving solely draft picks have netted New England a whopping 80.6 points of approximate value, roughly equal to the value of the top overall pick.

As we examine the Patriots' 2015 draft plans, it appears inevitable that they'll make at least one trade within the first two days.  I've made this point before, but the CliffsNotes version is this: The 2015 class is deeper than it is top-heavy, the Pats have multiple holes where quantity could be more useful than high-pick quality, and some of their most pressing positions of need (guard, cornerback, wide receiver and running back) have nice depth in the middle rounds.

Given the likelihood of a trade, it might be useful for us to examine where the Pats might move.  Belichick will take value from whomever offers it, but his history suggests a tendency to default to teams with which he has a close working relationship.

A couple of caveats before we begin: I'll be focusing on picks in the first four rounds, during which the Pats have six picks.  There's a lot of depth between Rounds 2-4, so most of these trade ideas will look to maximize New England's cargo in this area, though I've also included trade-up scenarios. 

Moreover, to construct fair trades, I'll be using Chase Stuart's draft pick chart, an update to the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart, which places an excessive amount of value on first-round picks compared to historical estimates of actual draft pick value.  Note that the numbers in Stuart's chart refers to the average amount of approximate value a team should expect to receive from the trade over the next five years.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Potential Trade: Pats receive 34th pick (Round 2) and 162nd pick (Round 5), Bucs receive 32nd pick (Round 1)

The Bucs and Patriots have been frequent partners throughout the NFL calendar in recent years.  Since 2012, the Pats have made trade-deadline acquisitions for Aqib Talib and Jonathan Casillas and traded for LeGarrette Blount during the draft. They also shipped out Logan Mankins to Tampa on the eve of last season in exchange for Tim Wright and this year's 101st overall pick. 

Much of that movement stemmed from Bill Belichick's ties to Greg Schiano—the two were together again at this year's combine—but the working relationship appears to have transferred to Tampa's new regime, given the Mankins and Casillas trades that occurred last season.  Given that Tampa's glut of needs could have it moving around the board, New England figures to receive a call or two from Bucs general manager Jason Licht.

New England should receive a bevy of offers for the final pick of Day 1, given that teams often like to swipe in before the rest of the league has a chance to regroup and reposition their boards (much like the Vikings did last year with Teddy Bridgewater). Tampa looms as a strong possibility if the Patriots don't want to move down too far into the second, and though this appears relatively minor, New England might want a fifth-rounder given that it currently doesn't own a pick in the round due to the Casillas trade.

Stuart's calculator gives the Patriots a slight edge in this trade.  Over the next five years, the Patriots haul would be expected to produce an average of 14.3 approximate value, compared to 12.5 for the Bucs.  That seems like an appropriate tax for Tampa to jump the rest of the league at the end of Day 1. 

4. Baltimore Ravens

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Potential Trade: Pats receive 26th pick (Round 1) and 125th pick (Round 4), Ravens receive 32nd pick (Round 1), 96th pick (Round 3) and 219th pick (Round 7)

Despite the bitter on-field rivalry between Baltimore and New England, Belichick has maintained close ties with Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome.  The two were on the same staff during Belichick's Cleveland days, and the Patriots coach has lauded Newsome for being an invaluable learning tool.

The Pats and Ravens haven't been frequent trading partners in recent years (unsurprisingly due to their frequent clashes for AFC supremacy), but they did make a franchise-shifting deal in 2003, when Baltimore relinquished a second-rounder and future first to move up for Kyle Boller.  Of course, Boller busted and failed to solve the Ravens quarterback conundrum, but the 2004 first-rounder the Pats received turned into Vince Wilfork.

This year, Baltimore serves as a potential trade-up possibility if the Pats want to move up the board, given that only six spots separate the teams.  The Ravens do have a significant overlapping need with the Patriots at cornerback, but if Baltimore isn't sold on, say, Marcus Peters or Byron Jones and New England is, that could set the wheels in motion for this type of transaction to occur.

The trade outlined above might seem like a lot of cargo to sacrifice to move up six spots, as the Pats are allowing Baltimore to move up a whopping 29 spots in Round 4 while also throwing in free pair of fourth- and seventh-rounders.  But Stuart's calculator only scores this as a slight victory for Baltimore, giving the Ravens an 18.3 to 17.8 edge in approximate value. 

The Pats don't seem particularly likely to sacrifice a pair of nice mid-round picks, especially given the depth in this class.  Still, if they do move up, keep an eye on their AFC North nemesis as a potential partner.

3. Philadelphia Eagles

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Potential Trade: Pats receive 84th pick (Round 3) and 113th pick (Round 4), Eagles receive 64th pick (Round 2)

The Patriots and Eagles were regular trading partners during the Andy Reid era (which makes the Kansas City Chiefs a team to watch as well), and though Reid is gone, Belichick's friendship with Chip Kelly has kept the two franchises connected.  Now that Kelly has undertaken a thorough roster overhaul since wresting personnel control away from Howie Roseman, the chances of a Eagles-Pats draft-day swap should increase.

Dropping from pick 32 to 52 is probably a bigger fall than the Pats would prefer before making their first pick, so a Day 2 trade seems likelier.  This would still represent a big chasm—if everything else remains constant, the Patriots would go 52 selections between picks—but that gap is a little more palatable at this stage of the draft, when the difference between prospects shrinks.

More importantly, the Patriots would become the kingpins of the third and fourth rounds, holding an eye-popping six picks between No. 84 and No. 131.  That's a possibility the Pats could reasonably salivate about, depending on how they feel about the likes of Grady Jarrett, Kenny Bell, Quinten Rollins, etc.

Stuart also gives the Patriots a fairly sizable 10.9-8.1 approximate value advantage in this deal, but as the Sam Bradford deal demonstrated, Kelly is willing to absorb a net loss in draft-pick compensation if he feels strongly about a player who can help the Eagles win now.  Thus, Kelly's ambition and unconventional personnel valuation could make Philly ripe for a trade with a similarly minded Patriots organization.

2. Houston Texans

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Potential Trade: Pats receive 51st pick (Round 2) and 2016 Round 1 pick, Texans receive 32nd pick (Round 1) and 96th pick (Round 3)

Having essentially constructed Patriots South over the past two years, the Houston Texans represent one of the likelier trade possibilities for New England.  The Ryan Mallett trade last summer has been the only Bill O'Brien-era transaction between the two franchises thus far, but a few variables could increase that number.

For one, the Texans hold the 19th pick of the second round, which is a more reasonable range where the Patriots might desire to make their first pick.  Top guard prospects like A.J. Cann and Laken Tomlinson should still be available for New England, while divisive defensive tackles such as Jordan Phillips and Carl Davis could conceivably slip to that range.

The tough part of this would be convincing the Texans to sacrifice a 2016 first-rounder, one that will almost certainly be higher than the 32nd pick they'd be receiving immediately.  This is essentially the same deal the Patriots made with the New Orleans Saints in 2012; in this case, though, the Pats would be giving up a third-rounder today rather than a future third-rounder. 

However, acquiring a future first-rounder is almost always a massive win, and Belichick has always exhibited to patience to wait on collecting his reward.  Based on current Super Bowl odds from Odds Shark, the Texans are projected to hold the ninth pick in the 2016 NFL draft.  Stuart's calculator scores this as a massive win for New England, giving the Patriots a 30.2 to 18 edge in approximate value.  That's a 12 AV advantage, equivalent to the totals Rob Gronkowski and Von Miller just accrued last season, per Pro-Football-Reference.

Overconfidence is at the root of these trades, and if the Texans fall for a prospect who they believe can help them dethrone the Andrew Luck-led Colts atop the AFC South, perhaps the deal goes through.  With a glut of Day 2 picks, expect Belichick to dig for opportunities to parlay that surplus into goodies for 2016.

1. New Orleans Saints

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Potential Trade: Pats receive RB Khiry Robinson, 44th pick (Round 2) and 75th pick (Round 3) for 32nd pick (Round 1) and 96th pick (Round 3)

New Orleans is in the midst of a roster reconstruction, and the MMQB's Peter King has already pinpointed the Saints as the draft's "headline act."  The front office has done well to add an extra first-, third- and fifth-rounder while shedding long-term cap space, but the Saints probably aren't done dealing, especially given Sean Payton's proclaimed desire for immediate impact players, per The Times-Picayune's Katherine Terrell.

If New Orleans really does seek an accelerated rebuild, holding the final two picks of the first round could make it the envy of the league.  The Patriots also would be dropping just 12 spots until their first pick, which would likely allow them to select the same type of prospect they would have been eyeing at pick No. 32.

This proposal is also the only one that includes a player.  Robinson has demonstrated some promise over his first two seasons in the league, rushing for 4.8 yards per attempt last season, but appears blocked in the Saints backfield after long-term deals for Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller.  The Pats could add important running back depth while also getting a look at an underrated young asset with just one year and roughly $585,000 left on his deal.

Based on picks alone, Stuart scores this as nearly a deadlock, with the Pats getting a tiny 18-17.6 edge in approximate value.  Robinson put up 3 AV last year in limited time, so his inclusion would likely swing the deal in New England's favor.  Still, Payton and Belichick's ties have helped hammer out previous deals, so this seems like the type of win-win that could match up each team's respective agendas more than any other.