What Recent History Suggests About New England Patriots' 2015 Draft Plan

The NFL may be a 365-day enterprise, but this period is a bit of a black hole on the calendar for football fans. Free agency has slowed to a dribble, and with the draft still one month out it's hard to pin down any definitive plans.

Thus, rather than continuing to speculate who goes where, let's change things up this week and look backwards for hints. The New England Patriots are an inscrutable franchise in that Bill Belichick and Co. don't always follow conventional wisdom. However, when looking back at their Belichick-era draft history, a few obvious trends stand out: New England values quantity (especially in Day 2), it tends to go heavy in the trenches and it isn't afraid to take a prospect completely out of left field.

There's no guarantee the Patriots follow that trend in 2015. Sometimes they'll surprise and trade up twice for Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, or draft Nate Solder when Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer are already entrenched as starters. But with a young roster coming off of a Super Bowl victory and Tom Brady showing no signs of a precipitous decline, it would be surprising to see Belichick stray much from the yearly game plan.

Taking a look at New England's draft record, here's a few assumptions we can make about how the Patriots' draft plans are likeliest (though not guaranteed) to unfold in Chicago next month.

Trade Out of First Round

The Patriots have been one of the league’s most active first-round traders, moving down or out of the first round six times since 2007 and executing the double trade-ups for Jones and Hightower in 2012. Given New England’s current roster composition and salary-cap situation, it feels likelier than not Belichick and Co. will pass on the first round this year.

According to Over the Cap, the Pats currently hold just $6.7 million in cap space and have 73 players under contract. Cap space won’t really affect New England’s draft plans much; though an entire draft class will make a shade over $6 million, remember that only the top 51 contracts count against the cap during the offseason. OTC’s Jason Fitzgerald projects the Patriots will need just $1.56 million for their draft class in the offseason, since the late-rounders aren’t going to be among the top 51 contracts.

However, the roster size might play a more important role in New England’s draft plans. Just three teams have more players under contract at the moment, and there are likely a couple more secondary wave free-agent signings in the offing (i.e., Dan Connolly). The Pats might not want to import all nine draft picks onto their roster, so this could be a year when Belichick trades for a future 2016 asset.

A home run would resemble something like what he pulled off in 2011, when Belichick traded the 28th overall pick plus a third-rounder to the New Orleans Saints for their second-rounder (56th pick) and 2012 first-rounder, which ended up at No. 27. The Pats used the 56th pick on Shane Vereen, while the following year's stolen first-rounder ended up providing them the ammo necessary to trade up for Chandler Jones.

Moreover, when taking a look at New England’s personnel needs, four needs stand out: Guard, cornerback, defensive tackle and (possibly) running back. This year, the draft class composition at those positions exhibits solid depth but little in the way of top-end talent. Thus, it’s simply advantageous to pile up mid-rounders and take more swings at a relatively similar group of talent.

Pre-draft projections are hardly infallible, but the second round looks like a potential sweet spot for the Pats to address some of their more pressing needs. Using NFL Draft Scout’s projections, here are a few potential second-rounders New England could select at those aforementioned positions of need:

Position	Projected 2nd-Round Prospects
Cornerback	Quinten Rollins, Jalen Collins, Byron Jones, Ronald Darby, D’Joun Smith, Alex Carter
Guard	A.J. Cann, Laken Tomlinson, Tre Jackson, Ali Marpet
Running Back	Jay Ajayi, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, David Johnson, Jeremy Langford
Defensive Tackle	Carl Davis, Xavier Cooper, Michael Bennett

Defensive tackle looks a little thin, especially if Davis doesn’t slip, but if you’ve started studying prospects at any of the other positions, this should look quite enticing. The Patriots currently hold three Day 2 picks, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them trade down and acquire another bite at this apple, while also adding to their cargo for 2016.

The Pats won’t force a trade, of course, if they can’t haggle enough net value out of a valuable asset. Still, holding the 32nd pick is a rather enviable position, as teams often try to trade back into the first round and strike before the rest of the league has the night to reconsider their draft plans, much like the Vikings did last year with Teddy Bridgewater. Plus, adding more mid-round picks might allow Belichick to address his favorite position.

Draft a Linebacker Early

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At first blush, linebacker would appear a low priority for New England. With dynamic three-down linebackers Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower still on their rookie contracts and a (hopefully) healthy Jerod Mayo for 2015, the Pats possess as talented a linebacking corps as any in the league.

But Hightower is due to miss six to seven months after surgery for a torn labrum, and Mayo’s availability is certainly no guarantee when considering he’s played just 12 games over the past two years and now must return from a debilitating torn patellar injury.

An indomitable linebacking corps has been the foundation of every Belichick championship defense, dating back to the New York Giants of the 1980s with Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks and Pepper Johnson, up through the Patriots of the early 2000s with Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest and Roosevelt Colvin.

Therefore, don’t be surprised if the Pats reinforce their linebacker depth early. The Belichick-era Patriots have selected seven linebackers within the first three rounds over the past seven drafts, and have not broken that trend in consecutive years. Strangely, these picks have mostly been either spectacular successes or failures, depending on what one thinks of Brandon Spikes:

Player	Year (Rd.)	Career Approximate Value	Starts w/NE
Jamie Collins	2013 (2)	14	23
Dont’a Hightower	2012 (1)	19	39
Jermaine Cunningham	2010 (2)	8	14
Brandon Spikes	2010 (2)	22	39
Tyrone McKenzie	2009 (3)	1	0
Jerod Mayo	2008 (1)	48	85
Shawn Crable	2008 (3)	0	0

New England didn’t take a linebacker in any round last year and were forced to trade for Jonathan Casillas midseason when Mayo’s injury left them shorthanded. Every team enters the season with holes in some form, but it seems unlikely the Patriots will repeat the same mistake in consecutive years, especially given the premium they place on the position.

In recent years, the Pats have trended towards lighter, speedier types to counter the NFL’s increasing emphasis on spacing, a big change from the old downhill thumpers Belichick used to love. Consequently, Miami’s Denzel Perryman and TCU's Paul Dawson might be off their draft board, despite high ratings from draft analysts, as both possess more limited two-down skill sets.

Instead, look for a player like Louisville’s Lorenzo Mauldin, who possesses a Patriot-like nose for the ball and a versatile skill set that could allow him to develop into a three-down linebacker. Additionally, former Red Sox prospect Shaq Thompson is one of the draft’s best pure athletes, and though he’s the textbook definition of a tweener, Thompson could develop into the type of Joker chess piece Belichick loves to deploy.

The Patriots did host Rolando McClain on Monday, per ESPN’s Field Yates, so the uber-talented former first-rounder would obviously lessen the need if they can ink him. Nevertheless, McClain raised some red flags with a substance abuse violation that will cost him four game checks (though he won’t be suspended), so if Belichick zeroes in on a prospect he likes at the second level, he’ll likely pounce.

Take Cornerback and/or Wide Receiver Between Rounds 2-4

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Belichick doesn’t have many blind spots, but New England’s consistent failure to draft and develop at wide receiver and cornerback has stood out as one of its biggest organizational flaws. From Ras-I Dowling and Terrence Wheatley to Chad Jackson and Taylor Price, the Pats have squandered a treasure trove of premium picks on busts at these positions.

And yet, with needs at both this year (especially corner), look for Belichick to take another swing at the pinata between Rounds 2 and 4. Though New England has had some late-round success with the likes of Julian Edelman and Alfonzo Dennard, it has generally targeted the early-middle rounds to address these positions. Under Belichick, receiver and corner have received the most Round 2-4 attention in Foxborough:

by Sterling Xie

Corner is an obvious area of need after the departures of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. Veteran additions Bradley Fletcher, Robert McClain and Chimdi Chekwa are all on no-risk one-year deals with varying degrees of upside, but none feel like long-term solutions.

I’ve touted a number of corners as potential targets in previous articles, most notably Wake Forest’s Kevin Johnson and LSU’s Jalen Collins. Both Johnson and Collins possess the length and reactivity to play man coverage on the perimeter, something the Pats will likely try to preserve even despite the big downgrade in talent.

But Johnson and Collins are early-round selections, and the Patriots figure to invest at least one mid-rounder in the position. Utah’s Eric Rowe (6’1”, 205 lbs) has terrific size and jam technique to play press coverage, while also possessing the versatility to play safety. The Pats met with the ex-Ute, who could be selected somewhere between Rounds 3-4.

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

USC’s Josh Shaw (6’0”, 201 lbs) would also be a nice fit if the Patriots want to maintain some press principles. Shaw is a recognizable name for all the wrong reasons after his infamous drowning nephew fib this past fall, an incident that stands in stark contrast to his otherwise clean track record and two-time captaincy. If the Patriots can get past that glaring red flag, Shaw probably provides more physicality and man coverage potential than any other mid-round corner, per Bleacher Report’s Dan Hope:

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For the most part, scouts should like what they see from Shaw on the field. While he was never what one would call a lockdown cornerback, he regularly showed the ability to stay stride-for-stride and compete with even the toughest competition he faced.

Shaw is at his best when utilized in press man coverage. He excels at using his size, strength and length to jam a receiver at the line of scrimmage and stop his opponent from getting a clean release. That, plus his speed to stay in close quarters with his man, gives him the potential to be a star in a press-heavy scheme at the next level.

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Like Rowe, Shaw can also play both corner and safety. Neither are really scheme-flexible prospects, as both possess limitations (hip fluidity, straight-line speed, etc.) that would appear detrimental to off-coverage zone-based teams.

Despite the widely held assumption that the Patriots will switch to this more conservative scheme next season, coverage throughout the league has trended away from easily diagnosable vanilla zones. We have to expect some man coverage incorporation from New England, so taking a flier on a high-upside prospect like Shaw or Rowe could pay big dividends.

Wide receiver isn’t as clearly glaring of a need, especially in the Patriots’ horizontal option-based passing game. However, the Pats have visited numerous receiver prospects recently, and while pre-draft visits are often smoke signals, it’s hard to imagine New England burning through their limited allocation simply for the sake of duplicity.

The Pats have needed a vertical element since Randy Moss’ departure, but they haven’t had much success drafting one-trick burners. Someone like USC’s Nelson Agholor might be a bit redundant with the current skill sets on New England’s roster, but he also represents the type of receivers that have tended to succeed in Foxborough.

Agholor smells like the kind of prospect whose productivity will outstrip his measurables. The ex-Trojan is a bit undersized (6’0”, 198 lbs) and doesn’t possess breakaway speed, but few in the draft are better route-runners, and Agholor would likely accumulate plenty of YAC in New England’s system. For this year’s wide receiver class, Football Outsiders ranked Agholor second in its Playmaker Score metric, a formula that translates collegiate productivity into an NFL statistical projection.

Look, projecting exact prospect-to-team fits is a difficult exercise for any organization, let alone one as indecipherable as the Patriots. But there’s a controlled method to the madness, which can provide clues as to how the Pats would prefer to execute their draft game plan.

Though nothing is ever guaranteed on draft day, New England’s consistency in its principles and execution make it an easy organization to trust, even if the results don’t always align with our expectations.