New England Patriots: Updated Draft Board After 1st Wave of Free Agency

Contrary to what some talk radio hosts may have you believe, the sky is not falling on the New England Patriots.  Even setting aside the fresh Lombardi Trophy they earned six weeks ago, the Patriots remain one of the league's youngest teams with premium talent and depth at most positions.

Still, it's almost undeniable that the Patriots are a worse team right now than when they last took the field in Glendale, Arizona, on February 1.  New England is sure to swipe some nice values from the secondary waves of free agency, but with the big fish largely off the market, it's hard to project any veterans who could arrive and replace the production of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Shane Vereen and (possibly) Vince Wilfork.

Thus, the draft now serves as the likeliest avenue for the Pats to rejigger their roster.  It's not feasible to ask a rookie to carry an entire unit (i.e., cornerback), but as the likes of Bryan Stork and Jamie Collins have illustrated, the mere ability to supplant replacement-level talent can elevate an entire unit.

A quick note about this exercise: This top-10 board reflects players the Pats could conceivably pick from their No. 32 slot in the first round.  Trade-up and trade-down possibilities are considered, but it's not realistic to expect New England to move up too far.  Therefore, you won't see a Leonard Williams or Brandon Scherff-type of prospect here, even though both would theoretically be fabulous fits in Foxborough.

With that in mind, let's take a preliminary look at the prospects who would be the best fits on the post-free agency Patriots.

10. Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA

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This would represent an off-the-radar move, but the Pats have never been afraid to buck the consensus. Edge defender Owamagbe Odighizuwa (breakdown and pronunciation help here) was arguably the combine’s top performer, and while his stock may still fall short of the first round, he’s the type of player the Patriots could target if they trade out of the first round.

Odighizuwa saw a significant uptick in disruptive plays during his senior year at UCLA. After accruing 6.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss during his first three seasons combined, the defensive end compiled six sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss last year alone. Even though Odighizuwa sits firmly in the second tier of an impressive edge-rushing class, Bleacher Report’s Dan Hope sees elite physical tools that could translate nicely with more development:

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Odighizuwa is not likely to be among the top five edge players selected this year; those players are expected to be (in no specific order) Florida’s Dante Fowler, Clemson’s Vic Beasley, Kentucky’s Alvin “Bud” Dupree, Missouri’s Shane Ray and Nebraska’s Randy Gregory.

That said, Odighizuwa arguably has the best combination of size, speed, length and strength of any edge defender in the 2015 draft class.

Odighizuwa has a great burst off the line of scrimmage, and can bring pressure in a hurry if he has a lane to the opposing quarterback.

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Indeed, Odighizuwa was a jaw-dropper at Indianapolis in February, finishing in the top three among defensive linemen in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, 20-yard shuttle and 60-yard shuttle. That explosiveness unfortunately hasn’t translated into consistent pass-rushing prowess yet, as most of his sacks are effort plays rather than instances of him cleanly beating the lineman. His inability to turn the corner is a surprising disappointment, as one would expect better bend and lower-body flexibility.

Nevertheless, Odighizuwa is the type of prospect who could pay big dividends for a hybrid scheme defense like the Pats if they’re patient in his development. Many New Englanders won’t want to hear that with Tom Brady approaching his age-38 season, but with Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard all having contracts that expire after 2016, Odighizuwa could represent an important layer of future insurance.

9. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Marcus Peters is the classic boom-or-bust prospect, the type of player who forces front offices to spend hours contemplating whether character concerns usurp clear natural talent.  Peters' off-field issues are well-documented, so we won't pore over them any further in this space.  Just know that it obviously lingers as a concern, and we can't know how the Patriots will weigh his attitude.

On the field, the 6'0", 197-pound corner possesses the size and physicality to play press-man coverage, a huge plus given what the Pats lost in free agency.  No corner in this class is more equipped to immediately play that stressful brand of coverage from Week 1, something that plays into Peters' allure.  As Bob Sturm of The Dallas Morning News opines, Peters' ball skills are already NFL-caliber and would infuse any secondary with a dose of playmaking:

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His best attribute is absolutely his ball skills.  He plays the ball often like a receiver and comes down with the ball plenty.  He had 11 interceptions in 34 college games, which is a very high rate.  He is big, plays confident, and again runs routes and sees the ball like a wide receiver...He runs pretty well and has a highlight tape that will make the eyes bug out of your head.

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So why does Peters rank relatively low on this list?  Numerous factors conspire to suggest that the Washington product isn't likely to rank high on the Patriots board.  For one, he is hardly a complete corner—the Pats have always valued tackling willingness and technique from their defensive backs, and Peters routinely shies away from contact, a troubling sign when placed in conjunction with his off-field red flags.

The Patriots have occasionally taken rookies with character concerns, such as Aaron Hernandez and Alfonzo Dennard, but those investments have come on Day 3, not in the first round.  And for what it's worth, the Pats have avoided that kind of player since Hernandez's downfall two years ago.  Despite Peters' tantalizing perimeter potential, it's probably not enough to set off the rest of the holes in his profile.

8. A.J. Cann, G, South Carolina

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After the combine, I singled out A.J. Cann as a player the Patriots should have on their short list, and that sentiment hasn't changed in the month since.  The four-year starter out of South Carolina is probably the top pure guard in this draft; as an already polished run-blocker, Cann's floor is higher than most linemen who are projected between the first and second rounds.

At the same time, though, we should learn more about Cann at his pro day on April 1, as he only bench-pressed at the combine.  There are questions about his balance in pass protection, so Cann probably needs to shore up those concerns to vault into the first round.  NFL.com's Mike Huguenin highlighted Cann as one of the top prospects who are facing pivotal pro days, and at a high-profile SEC school, scouts from every team will likely turn out.

As for his potential fit in New England, Cann would have likely done well last season in a more power-based scheme.  Part of that stems from LeGarrette Blount's running style, as we may have seen more zone runs if one-cut back Stevan Ridley had stayed healthy.  But with Ridley likely to depart in free agency and Blount still under contract, that's a moot point.

Moreover, considering that New England is tight against the cap and already possesses a deep roster, the Patriots might not want to pay and/or import a large draft class.  The Pats might be able to select Cann after trading down and accumulating more picks, so even though he doesn't possess the versatility that New England covets from its interior linemen, the ex-Gamecock should be firmly on the team's radar. 

7. Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State

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A former track athlete, Ronald Darby possesses as much speed and quick-twitch ability as any corner in this class.  If the Pats switch over to a zone-oriented defense that requires more read-and-react diagnostic ability from their corners, Darby is the kind of prospect who could thrive.

Indeed, it's not just his speed that makes him an attractive asset, but rather his instincts in coverage.  At Tallahassee, Darby demonstrated precocious route recognition, as evidenced by how frequently he switched off his man to make plays on the ball.  Though he's moderately sized at 5'11" and 193 pounds, Darby displayed nice hand usage, which allowed him to stifle receivers at the line through timing rather than brute strength.

However, Darby's excellent combine showing could push him up past the Patriots' range.  He ran a blistering 4.38 40-yard dash time at Indianapolis, second-best among all corners, and also posted above-average marks in the vertical jump and three-cone drill.  In fact, in his draft notebook, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller suggested Darby could go as high as the San Francisco 49ers at No. 15, before mocking him to Pittsburgh at No. 22.

There's a nice amount of cornerback depth in the late first- and early second-round area of the draft, so unless the Pats see Darby as a real difference-maker, it seems unlikely that they would sacrifice the assets necessary to move up for the ex-Seminole.  Nevertheless, despite some rawness in his technique, few corners have displayed Darby's scheme versatility, which makes him an enticing proposition for a defense that traditionally loves to mix its coverages.

6. Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State

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The Patriots just selected a 3-technique last year in Dominique Easley, but as the old adage states, you can never have enough pass-rushers. That’s especially true for a New England defense that will now need to lean on its front seven for success. With Easley a question mark for 2015, adding Ohio State’s Michael Bennett could give the Pats another option to unlock that elusive interior pass rush.

Bennett may or may not deliver the same prolific production as his current NFL namesake, but there’s no question that he possesses a similar level of talent. He received criticism at Columbus for his inconsistency and failure to finish some plays, but SBNation’s Stephen White subscribes to the idea that Bennett’s big-play ability outweighs his inevitable handful of mistakes each game:

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But here's the deal, even with all those areas of needed improvement, Michael Bennett is still undeniably a first-round talent. With good times and jumps whenever he does end up working out, he'll probably be a top half of the top half of the first-round pick. Guys his size with his ability to rush the passer just don't grow on trees. He isn't as polished as someone line Aaron Donald was last year and probably not as physically gifted either. By hook or by crook, the guy makes it work, and everything I see on tape suggests what he did in college will indeed transfer to the pros.

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A bigger concern could be Bennett’s package-specific limitations, as he’s simply not an NFL-caliber run defender. He is undersized at just 293 pounds, and with a lack of lower-body girth to anchor, there’s virtually no chance that he'll ever display the ability to play the 0- or 1-technique.

But with 14 sacks and 25.5 tackles for loss over his last two seasons, Bennett’s elite production made him a huge asset nonetheless. Moreover, his length and burst suggest that the Pats could also develop him on the edge, as they did with Easley last season. Picking Bennett 32nd overall might be a tad rich, but he’s another early-to-mid second-round option who could be a trade-down target.

5. Jalen Collins, CB, LSU

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In recent drafts, the Patriots have proved willing to invest in underdeveloped prospects with massive upside, such as Jamie Collins, Dominique Easley and Nate Solder.  They've experienced varying degrees of success there, but don't be surprised if LSU's Jalen Collins is the next similar type of prospect to migrate north to Foxborough.

Having started just 10 career games, Collins is probably the rawest of the top five to seven corners in this class.  However, he possesses the physical dimensions that teams salivate over, with a 6'1", 203-pound frame and long 32 ⅛" arms.  Combined with speed, Collins is the rare prospect who can jam just as effectively as he can turn and run.

At the same time, though, he shows the stiff hips and poor hand technique illustrative of an inexperienced corner.  Collins' tools can actually serve as a curse of sorts, as he often relied on his physical tools at Baton Rouge.  Most of his flaws are correctable with proper coaching, but for teams seeking an immediate impact starter, he probably isn't ready to play heavy snaps.

It's unclear if that would deter the Patriots.  New England mostly stocked up with long-term prospects last year with an eye on developing them for roles in 2015 and beyond.  That's generally in line with the team's modus operandi, but as it showed in trading up for Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower in 2012, the Pats aren't afraid to make big moves when they hone in on a prospect.

The Pats have had issues developing corners, so there is reason for pause with Collins.  Nevertheless, he probably has the highest ceiling of any corner in this draft, so while his draft stock may fluctuate, New England probably at least needs to have a long discussion about the ex-Tiger.

4. Carl Davis, DT, Iowa

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With Vince Wilfork officially gone to Houston, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Patriots should be on the lookout for someone who could potentially develop into the three-down centerpiece Wilfork was in his prime. While it’s probably unfair to expect Iowa’s Carl Davis to turn into an All-Pro, the former Hawkeye possesses as much upside as any interior lineman behind Leonard Williams.

Despite measuring a hefty 6’5” and 320 pounds, Davis possesses a surprisingly diverse pass-rushing arsenal, showing the ability to spin and club moves to disengage from blockers. His hand usage is quite advanced, and when engaged, Davis turns into a relentless three-down force capable of wrecking an offense.

That’s the catch with Davis, however, as his main criticism in the predraft process has been the lack of consistent effort on tape. There are some fairly clear conditioning issues on film, as Davis’ effort noticeably lags later in games. It’s unfair to totally write him off, as big defensive tackles aren’t necessarily built for heavy workloads, but a pessimist could reasonably characterize Davis as lazy.

Those question marks could well push Davis into New England’s range, perhaps even through a trade-down, but it’s hard to remember the last time the Patriots drafted a player with passion concerns. The Pats have typically dealt with loafing veterans rather harshly (Adalius Thomas, Albert Haynesworth, etc.), and a rookie certainly wouldn’t receive any benefit of the doubt.

Davis’ situation is reminiscent of last year’s draft with Ra’Shede Hageman, another high-upside defensive tackle with a questionable motor whom many linked to the Patriots. New England passed on Hageman, but with Wilfork now gone, perhaps the Patriots will be more willing to invest in the uber-talented Davis and trust their program culture to help him develop.

3. Cameron Erving, C/G, Florida State

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Versatility has always been a buzzword for the Patriots, and no O-lineman embodies that more this year than Cameron Erving.  Though technically listed as a center, he possesses the ability to play all five positions on the line, with starting experience at tackle and a skill set that profiles as a guard.

That's even more impressive when considering that Erving actually arrived at Florida State as a defensive tackle before shifting to the other side.  It's borderline miraculous that he was able to become such an impactful player at a talent-laden program like Florida State after the position change.  But as ESPN Insider Sharon Katz illustrates, the Seminoles' running game received a big boost last year when Erving kicked inside midseason:

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In Florida State's 10th game of the season, Erving made the switch from tackle to center, which opened up Florida State's interior run game; the Seminoles doubled their yards-before-contact per rush average on interior runs in their final five games, compared with their first nine.

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For a relatively inexperienced lineman, Erving demonstrates excellent hand usage and the ability to sustain blocks.  Coupled with natural foot quickness, those traits project him as an above-average pass-blocker.  There's still some technique issues—for someone who's 6'5" and 313 pounds, Erving is surprisingly susceptible to the bull rush—but all these are correctable.

Consequently, Erving is the type of player who could start immediately while also providing insurance at multiple positions.  His pass-protection ability is a huge plus for a team that struggled protecting on the interior, and Erving should be New England's top-rated offensive lineman come draft day.

2. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

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For those that care. The date for the next medical recheck for players from the Combine like Todd Gurley will be April 18 Indy.

— Bryan Broaddus (@BryanBroaddus) March 13, 2015"

With the defections in the secondary, it's clear that the 2015 Patriots will need to be a fundamentally different team from their champion predecessors if they want to repeat.  The best way to go about this is typically to bolster other areas of the roster.  When dissecting each unit, adding a prolific running back is clearly the most drastic forward step the Pats could take, as it could change myriad aspects about how they game-plan.

With that in mind, Todd Gurley is really the only running back who would fit that first-round bill.  His story is well-known by now: The Georgia Bulldog would be the consensus top back in this class if not for the November ACL tear that could jeopardize his 2015 availability and efficacy.  If the medical red flags don't check out for New England, then obviously Gurley's upside would become a moot point.

But if that April 18 test turns out some promising results, the Pats shouldn't hesitate to consider adding Gurley to a backfield that is currently filled with plodders and inexperience.  According to metrics from Advanced Football Analytics, the Patriots' running game produced negative Expected Points Added in nine of the team's 15 wins last season (playoffs included).

In other words, the Patriots won despite their running game, not because of it (with Indianapolis standing out as the obvious exception).  New England is already in the process of remaking its defensive identity by beefing up the front seven, but bolstering the running game and keeping the defense off the field would be the exact kind of complementary football that Bill Belichick preaches about.  In that sense, a healthy Gurley is the most significant offensive difference-maker the Pats could draft from this class.

1. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

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At the moment, no player appears to offer a better fit of need, pro readiness and potential availability than cornerback Kevin Johnson.  The Wake Forest product may not possess the same physical upside as some of the other top corners, but scouts are raving over his consistency and technique on film:

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Wake CB Kevin Johnson's technique is about as good as it gets. That was fun to watch.

— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) March 15, 2015"

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@LRiddickESPN For some reason, Johnson flies under the radar, but he plays the game the right way. Love his IQ, technical skills & savvy.

— Bucky Brooks (@BuckyBrooks) March 15, 2015"

Johnson's smooth hips, balance and discipline made him a terrific man-coverage corner and suggest that he could be plugged in right away.  Though he's a bit undersized for a perimeter corner at 6'0" and a lean 188 pounds, he compensates with a high motor and willingness to play in tight spaces against bigger receivers.

There are limits to that style, of course, and Johnson will be at a size disadvantage against most split ends in the NFL.  And yet, he remains a more willing tackler than some of the bigger and more gifted corners on this list.  As Devin McCourty has shown, the Patriots will tolerate smaller defensive backs who are nevertheless unafraid of seeking out contact.

In today's NFL, it's not feasible to totally abandon man-coverage principles, even if your corner talent isn't top-line.  Johnson, or any other rookie for that matter, shouldn't be seen as a savior.  But as someone who would fit the scheme well and is equipped to play heavy snaps immediately, Johnson is the type of player who could headline a draft class years from now.

*All combine numbers and measurables via NFL.com.