San Francisco 49ers: Worst-Case Scenario for Round 1 of the 2015 NFL Draft
Yesterday, we looked at a best-case scenario for the San Francisco 49ers in the 2015 draft. With a series of quasi-respectable picks, six of the seven receiver-needy teams ahead of the 49ers passed on the position, allowing the 49ers to jump on Alabama’s Amari Cooper.
Today, we’ll look at the inverse—what’s the worst the draft could go for the 49ers? The offseason hasn’t gone spectacularly for the 49ers, as they’ve already lost their head coach and star defensive coordinator, reportedly missed out on some of the most interesting coaching candidates on the market, and generally have conducted themselves without the air of competence that they’d shown over the past four seasons.
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What if that malaise continued through draft day, with the teams above them almost specifically picking players that San Francisco would like to take?
Once again, I tried to stay in the general vicinity of reality rather than just picking receivers, linemen and cornerbacks all the way down—it turns out, sometimes teams have needs other than what the 49ers have. I did try to find a mock draft or rumor that links each prospect to each team, in order to give an air of realism to the worst-case scenario. Here’s what I came up with:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Winston nearly has to be the pick, especially after having a very positive combine. He looked sharp on the field and handled himself well in his public press conference. Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher has confirmed the Buccaneers have reached out to their staff to get an idea about Winston, per the NFL Network (via NFL.com's Matt Huguenin). Matt Miller’s sticking with Winston at No. 1, so I’ll just go with him.
2. Tennessee Titans: Leonard Williams, DE, USC
If you’re looking to hurt the 49ers the most with this pick, there’s two ways to go about it. One to have them take the Marcus Mariota, freeing the quarterback-needy teams down below to grab a wide receiver. Taking Williams off the board here, however, might cause a chain reaction thatsees both of the next two picks hurt the 49ers as well. Since Matt Miller went with Williams here, I’ll stick with that for now.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Scherff is pretty much the only offensive lineman the 49ers would consider in the first round of this year’s draft. He’s big enough to slide inside to guard, which is key—the 49ers don’t have a need at offensive tackle, but the probable departure of Mike Iupati leaves them open there. The Jaguars need a new tackle, so they’ll take Scherff over more pure tackles like Andrus Peat and thus take away the 49ers’ option to go with a big guard in Round 1. This backs up Rant Sports' Rick Stavig’s pick.
4. Oakland Raiders: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
In the best-case mock, the 49ers dodged a receiver going to Oakland thanks to Leonard Williams falling, but with the top player in the draft off the board, the Raiders are free to go back to their roots and take the speedy White. White impressed at the combine, and even though he has a lesser track record than Amari Cooper, might be the best receiver in the draft. This is why Matt Miller mocked White to Oakland, where he’ll give Derek Carr a big-time weapon.
5. Washington Redskins: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
One option for the 49ers, if all the top receivers go off the board, is to address their need at cornerback. With Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox as free agents, they could use another young talent back there. Thus, we’ll have Washington hurt them by slightly reaching for Waynes to replace DeAngelo Hall, who tore his Achilles twice last season. FanSided’s Maurice Barksdale indicated that Waynes’ combine performance could interest Washington, so we’ll take him off the board here to hurt the 49ers.
6. New York Jets: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
While the Jets are a receiver-needy team that could hurt the 49ers, there’s no way to keep calling this a “realistic” draft if one of the top two quarterbacks in the draft slips past the Jets and Geno Smith. We’ll have to take a break from breaking 49ers’ fans hearts and instead simply give the Jets the pick they would make in roughly three seconds were Mariota to fall. That’s what Matt Miller has them doing, anyway.
7. Chicago Bears: Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
While a great number of mock drafts have the Bears taking nose tackle Danny Shelton here, Fowler fits the 49ers’ needs better—they have no need for a nose tackle with Glenn Dorsey and Ian Williams on the roster already. The Bears, switching to Vic Fangio’s 3-4 scheme, could go for an edge-rusher like Fowler, according Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
With Gregory going off the board here, that pretty much ends the 49ers’ chances of getting an edge-rusher to replace Ahmad Brooks and provide insurance for Aldon Smith in the first round, once again limiting their options. NFL.com’s Rob Rang has the Falcons grabbing Gregory with the eighth pick, where he would provide something for their front seven to hang their hat on.
9. New York Giants: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
There are two true 3-4 ends who could go in the first half of the draft. One is Leonard Williams, who is long gone in any realistic scenario by the time the 49ers pick. The other is Armstead, who didn’t produce much in college but has all the physical measurements you want out of a stud defensive end and would be the perfect prospect for Jim Tomsula and company to coach up.
Instead, the Giants grab him here as an eventual replacement for Jason Pierre-Paul, who may receive the franchise tag this offseason. NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah gave Armstead to the Giants, so that takes defensive end off the board for the 49ers.
10. St. Louis Rams: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Rob Rang may have said it best—Cooper at No. 10 would be an absolute steal and an instant contributor at the NFL. The Rams have some solid second receiver options but no true No. 1; in the absence of a quarterback here, adding Cooper to the offense is probably the best thing they can do.
11. Minnesota Vikings: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
The Vikings reunite Parker with his college quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in Matt Miller’s most recent mock. There is a pretty clear top three in the receiver rankings this year, with White, Cooper and Parker, in some order, topping most people’s draft boards. Seeing all three go this early would be a nightmare for the 49ers.
12. Cleveland Browns: Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
A lot of people have Dorial Green-Beckham as the fourth member of the top four receivers, or at least the next one down after the big three. While this may or may not be the case—I think his red flags lower him a bit—there’s no way the Browns are taking DGB after just suffering through Josh Gordon.
Instead, they’d get Funchess, the big-bodied receiver-tight end hybrid. He would have fit well with the 49ers, because he could have been a replacement for either Michael Crabtree or Vernon Davis, assuming his poor 40-yard dash at the combine is improved upon at his pro day. ESPN's Todd McShay has given the Browns Funchess in mock drafts before, albeit with their second first-round pick. For things to go poorly for the 49ers, he goes a bit earlier.
13. New Orleans Saints: Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
So the top four receivers, top defensive ends and only interior lineman in the top of the draft are gone, but that’s OK, right? After all, the 49ers could then choose to get value at the cornerback position. Sadly, that’s going out the window quickly here. The Saints grab Collins here, sticking in-state to repair their horrid pass defense. Collins has been listed as a draft prospect for the Saints before by Andrew Schuster of FanSided, so a poor combine showing won’t knock him down too far.
14. Miami Dolphins: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
The removal of the cornerback situation from the 49ers’ options continues with the Dolphins taking away the next-best prospect at the position. Todd McShay laid out the case for the Dolphins taking Johnson, which basically boils down to “Cortland Finnegan needs replacing.” Johnson’s a bit of a reach, perhaps, but assuming the Dolphins do not go with an interior lineman in Round 1, a cornerback is the most likely pick.
Where does that leave the 49ers? Well, that depends on what the franchise’s definition of “winning with class” entails.
The most talented two prospects remaining have serious character red flags. Dorial Green-Beckham is an extraordinarily talented receiver, but he has a rather terrifying rap sheet. It’s not just the usual “character concerns,” which boil down to marijuana usage—though he was arrested for that in college on multiple occasions—but an incident where he allegedly pushed an 18-year old woman down several flights of stairs. This led to him being cut from the team, though no charges were filed due to “witnesses fearing retaliation,” according to police.
The top cornerback remaining would be Washington’s Marcus Peters, but he too was dismissed from his college team thanks to disciplinary issues and arguments with assistant coaches and general insubordination.
With Jed York saying he wants the 49ers to “win with class,” it would look highly hypocritical to select either player. Green-Beckham has the worse red flags, but he’s also the more talented player at a position of bigger need. I’d argue that there is no chance the 49ers would draft Peters here, but they’d have to at least consider Green-Beckham, which would cause the team a massive headache.
Even ignoring the owner’s statements, Green-Beckham has perhaps the highest odds of any of the first-rounders of busting completely—he’s a very-high-ceiling, very-low-floor sort of player, thanks to his off-field issues.
If the 49ers decided to eschew either player thanks to those red-flag concerns, they’d be left with the next tier of receivers—Ohio State’s Devin Smith and Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong. Devin Smith is perhaps the top deep threat available in this year’s draft; he averaged 28.2 yards per reception in 2014.
However, his hands are an issue, and his routes need work. Strong is rawer than Smith, but his 42-inch vertical jump is very, very impressive. His 4.44 40-yard dash was faster than expected, and he’s good at making contested catches. That speed doesn’t really show on his game tape, however.
I think in this scenario, the 49ers would go with Devin Smith—they’d dodge Green-Beckham and let someone else gamble on him staying in control. Smith fits their need for a deep threat and gives the 49ers a chance at making some big plays in the passing game. Hopefully, however, a few more of these players fall, giving the 49ers more options.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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