San Francisco 49ers: Best-Case Scenario for Round 1 of the 2015 NFL Draft
There’s been plenty of pessimism around the San Francisco 49ers this offseason, with a messy coaching change, tight salary cap and probable departure of veterans and key cogs such as Frank Gore and Mike Iupati and the general malaise that comes from missing the playoffs. It hasn’t been an ideal four months or so for the franchise or its fanbase.
That pessimism continued, at least for me, during the NFL Scouting Combine. Every time a receiver ran a sub-4.4 40-yard dash or a lineman blew through a blocking dummy during a drill, I mentally checked him off the 49ers’ draft list.
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There’s no way, of course, that all the teams ahead of the 49ers would take their most wanted players, but the middle of the draft means you’re not going to end up with your top prospect.
Or does it?
It’s time to counter some of that relentless pessimism with some unfounded optimism. After watching all of the NFL combine and considering the needs of the teams ahead of the 49ers, I tried to find the best realistic draft scenario for the 49ers—the combination of picks that would result in the 49ers getting the best player to fit their needs.
Could it work out so the 49ers somehow grabbed the top player in the draft or at least had first dibs on the wide receiver class? I hemmed, and I hawed, and I came up with what I think the best quasi-realistic scenario is.
I say quasi-realistic because I did my best to make somewhat logical picks for each team ahead of the 49ers. Where possible, I tried to give teams players they had already seen mocked to them somewhere.
When not possible, I looked to find a rumor or speculation that might link them to the selected player. Some of the picks are more realistic than others, but none of them are entirely out of the question. Here’s the best I could come up with:
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Jameis Winston will be the first overall pick unless he tears an ACL, goes on a major crime spree or joins a travelling folk band between now and draft day. The Buccaneers have never had a quarterback start more than five years in a row for them; they’re desperate to find their franchise guy. That’s why Matt Miller, as well as many, many other people, have mocked Winston to Tampa Bay.
2. Tennessee Titans: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
If the Titans really are happy with Zach Mettenberger as their quarterback, then that could help the 49ers significantly. It would open up the option for the Titans to take someone other than Marcus Mariota with their second pick, which would have a cascade effect on the rest of the draft.
The Titans have released Michael Oher and could see Michael Roos leave in free agency. Peat’s the top pure tackle available in the draft, and Joe Fann of TitansOnline.com at least indicates that the Titans might be in the market for his services. I’d take Mariota, but we’re trying to help the 49ers out here, so Peat it is.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
We’re shying away from top defensive linemen like Leonard Williams or Shane Ray—each more logical picks for the Jaguars—to attempt to shore up their offensive line some. Luke Joeckel has not looked comfortable at left tackle and might benefit tremendously from a move to the right. Even if he stays at left tackle, the Jags need an upgrade over Austin Pasztor and Sam Young on the right. Enter Scherff.
Rant Sports’ Rick Stavig states that he’d be ideal in Gus Bradley’s power-rush attack. Leonard Williams is a better pick, but saving him for later helps the 49ers more.
4. Oakland Raiders: Leonard Williams, DE, USC
I can hear the phone call between 49ers GM Trent Baalke and Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie now. “What? It would help you if we took the best player in the draft rather than a wide receiver? Well, if you insist.”
The Raiders are one of seven or so teams that could steal a receiver before the 49ers get to pick, but with Williams tumbling down to No. 4, they’d be crazy not to take him and shore up their awful pass rush. Williams would “love” to be an Oakland Raider. That eliminates one team that could grab a receiver—six more to go.
5. Washington Redskins: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
The fifth pick might be a slight reach for Collins—the safer pick here would probably be Shane Ray. Washington doesn’t have a bigger need than its secondary, however, and Collins is, by far, the top-rated safety in the class.
That’ why NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks mocked Collins to Washington in his first crack at the draft. The childhood Washington fan would immediately replace either Ryan Clark or Brandon Meriweather and give Washington a shot at stopping a pass every now and again.
6. New York Jets: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Here’s where the Titans passing on Mariota pays off for the 49ers. With both Mariota and Winston off the board, many mocks have the Jets grabbing a receiver here. Quarterback, however, is by far their greatest need, and they’d be ecstatic if he dropped to No. 6. Matt Miller gives the Jets Mariota, saying he could be their franchise quarterback for the future. That’s two receiver-needy teams down, five to go.
7. Chicago Bears: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
In this scenario, I like Shane Ray better as the pick, but I’m somewhat alone on that. Mock after mock after mock, including Matt Miller’s, give the Bears Shelton, to serve as their nose tackle as they convert to a 3-4 defense.
I’m always concerned when there’s such a great deal of agreement on one player at a position, but it’s undeniable that Shelton fills a need for the Bears without taking anything away from the 49ers’ needs.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
Shane Ray, like Leonard Williams before him, was never going to fall to the 15th pick, so we might as well mock him to a team that needs an edge-rusher. For the third straight pick, we stick with Matt Miller’s mock and give the Falcons their Cliff Avril clone for Dan Quinn’s defense.
9. New York Giants: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (FL)
We have to jump off Matt Miller’s train now, though, because Miller has the Giants grabbing Amari Cooper here, despite the presence of Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz on the roster already.
Cruz’s injury makes them the third receiver-needy team ahead of the 49ers, but we want Cooper to keep falling, so we have to look elsewhere. NFL.com’s Charles Davis has them grabbing Flowers to replace the outmatched Justin Pugh, which honestly makes much more sense than adding strength to strength. That’s three receiver-needy teams down.
10. St. Louis Rams: T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
The best pick for the Rams here is Amari Cooper—he’s one of the last couple of top-10 caliber talents available at this point, and they lack a true No. 1 receiver.
Fortunately, they have enough holes elsewhere that we can fill instead—like at offensive tackle, where Jake Long has considered retiring, per head coach Jim Fischer (via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), and could be a cap casualty either way. Clemmings went to the Rams in ESPN's Mel Kiper’s pre-combine mock draft, so let’s send him to the Rams to dodge the fourth receiver-needy team.
11. Minnesota Vikings: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
The 49ers can’t realistically avoid having any receivers picked ahead of them, so instead, we have to convince a team to take the wrong receiver.
Kevin White absolutely lit up the combine, finishing as a top performer in the 40-yard dash and bench press, and performing well in all the individual position drills. I still prefer Cooper thanks to his overall body of work, but White’s measurables could convince some teams to take him instead. CBSSports.com's Pat Kirwan gave the Vikings White, so let’s stick with that for now, as we pass the fifth receiver-needy team.
12. Cleveland Browns: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
There is no more receiver-needy team in the NFL than the Cleveland Browns, but I’ve been keeping an ace up my sleeve for their first-round pick here.
The Browns have two first-round picks—one here, and one at No. 19. Seeing the top receivers slide, they could realistically believe they could still grab a top player at that 19th pick, which would allow them to catch the other top-10 slider. Randy Gregory.
WalterFootball.com's Charlie Campbell noted that the Browns could realistically use both of their first-round picks to trade for Gregory; having Gregory fall to No. 12 would allow them to get both him and someone such as Dorial Green-Beckham with their second pick. That’s a great scenario for the Browns, allowing the sixth receiver-needy team to pass without taking another name.
13. New Orleans Saints: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
The Saints couldn’t cover the broad side of a barn last season, so taking the top cornerback makes tons of sense. There’re concerns with Peters because he was dismissed from Washington before this last season, but his talent is enough for a team to take a chance on him. Larry Holder of the The Times-Picayune calls Peters a legitimate option at No. 13, so we’ll go with that for now.
14. Miami Dolphins: La’el Collins, OG, LSU
The Dolphins are the last team that has been occasionally mocked taking a receiver before the 49ers get to pick, but honestly, they have bigger problems to deal with. Their interior offensive line is a mess, with center Samson Satele playing very badly and left guard Daryn Colledge struggling as well.
Eric Roddy of Fansided's Phin Phanatic gives the Dolphins Collins, citing his versatility to play anywhere along the offensive line. Honestly, Collins is a better fit for them than any of the receivers, even if they were all available at this pick.
That leaves the 49ers on the clock with Amari Cooper still sitting right there. If Cooper somehow, someway gets through that gauntlet at picks 10-12, then the 49ers would end up getting the single-most polished receiver in the draft. He has more experience than Kevin White, more physical talent than Devante Parker and fewer red flags than Green-Beckham.
It’s almost inconceivable that Cooper could slide down this far—every single mock draft I’ve seen has Cooper taken long before the 49ers pick. However, there’s a logical case for each of the 14 teams above the 49ers to take someone else other than Cooper. It’s probably about as unlikely as flipping a coin four times in a row and getting “heads” each time, but it’s not entirely implausible.
If the 49ers could take anyone in this draft, they’d take Leonard Williams, and no amount of blue-sky thinking and unbridled optimism is making that happen. Their second choice, however, would be Cooper. If you want to look through the offseason with rose-colored glasses, you can root for Cooper to drop to No. 15, which would set off celebrations throughout San Francisco.
Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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