What Will It Take for Eagles to Land Marcus Mariota in 2015 NFL Draft?

As the 2015 NFL Scouting Combine gets rolling in Indianapolis, one of this year's hottest draft rumors consists of a potential reunion between Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly and his old college quarterback.

If there's truth to these reports, Kelly and the Eagles are seriously considering a play to move up in the 2015 NFL draft and select Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota. It begs the question—just how far would the Eagles have to move up from their No. 20 draft slot to land the reigning Heisman Trophy winner?

And what would it take to actually pull off the deal?

According to Larry Brown of Fox Sports, Eagles beat reporter Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer told 97.5 FM in Philadelphia that he thinks Kelly's interest in trading up in the first round on April 30 is genuine:

"

Unless I’m missing something here, if Marcus Mariota is available, the Eagles are going to do whatever it takes to get him. I don’t think it’s any secret that (coach) Chip Kelly loves Mariota. He’s equated him to Peyton Manning. So he wants Marcus Mariota. What we don’t know (is) if he thinks Marcus is worth what he thinks it will take to move up to go get him. They’re going to make a real strong effort to go up and get him.

"

Of course, this all assumes that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who pick first overall this year, don't want Mariota. And that the Tennessee Titans, who pick second, would also be willing to eschew drafting the Oregon signal-caller.

However, the prevailing wisdom (as things stand today) is that the Buccaneers will draft Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston. As ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky wrote, Titans general manager Ruston Webster has publicly voiced his support for second-year pro Zach Mettenberger, so it's reasonable to think the No. 2 pick might just be for sale.

That second overall pick would get the Eagles Mariota—but would it take the second pick?

Pick	Team	Top Returning QB
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Mike Glennon
2	Tennessee Titans	Zach Mettenberger
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Blake Bortles
4	Oakland Raiders	Derek Carr
5	Washington Redskins	Robert Griffin*
6	New York Jets	Geno Smith

After the Titans, three teams pick who shouldn't be in the market for a quarterback early this year. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders drafted one a year ago. The Washington Redskins are still hopeful the king's ransom they paid for Robert Griffin III won't be for naught.

We'll get back to that ransom in a bit.

So, for the sake of argument let's assume that those picks are also in play for the Eagles as "Mariota spots."

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

As an aside, I think Mariota spots are a side effect of the drug you take for the side effects of the drug you take for the side effects of that drug you see on TV all the time. You know the one—with the bathtub.

Then we have the New York Jets at No. 6, and given the steaming pile of ungood that was Geno Smith and Mike Vick in 2014, it's a safe bet that the new regime for Gang Green will be kicking the tires hard on Mariota this spring.

Once again, for the sake of argument, we'll assume that means if someone doesn't pull the trigger before them, the Jets will take Mariota at No. 6.

Cue Jets fans nodding enthusiastically then laughing a little. It's an unsettling laugh, one that some might call crazed. It echoes across the concrete landscapes of Manhattan parking garages like...

Sorry—I got sidetracked.

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

If (in theory) it's going to take a top-five pick to move up far enough to secure Mariota, then we at least have some recent history to use as a gauge of what it might take to get such a deal done.

Just last year, the Buffalo Bills moved into the top five, engineering a draft-day swap with the Cleveland Browns that netted them wide receiver Sammy Watkins at No. 4.

The cost? Buffalo sent the ninth overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, its first-rounder in 2015 (pick No. 19 by the time the dust settled) and its 2015 fourth-rounder.

The year before, the Miami Dolphins moved up even further to third overall. That swap with the Oakland Raiders got the Dolphins defensive end Dion Jordan for the relatively modest cost of picks No. 12 and 42.

Of course, the last time a team pulled a move into the top five for a quarterback, it came at a much higher price.

When the Washington Redskins traded up to acquire the second overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, it came at a staggering cost. The Redskins sent the St. Louis Rams their first two picks (including No. 6 overall) in 2012 and their first-round picks in both 2013 and 2014.

Those trades run the gamut from relative bargain to king's ransom, and if the Eagles could get Mariota for what the Dolphins paid for Jordan the deal would get done in a New York second.

The problem is that the price will likely come in closer to Griffin's sticker than Jordan's due in large part to where the Eagles are negotiating from.

Back in the early 1990s while he was terrorizing the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys, Jimmy Johnson invented a trade value chart that listed the value (in points) of every pick in the NFL draft. Granted, the NFL has changed quite a bit since then, but as ESPN points out, the chart is still used by some NFL front offices.

Pick	Value	Pick	Value	Pick	Value	Pick	Value
1	3000	9	1350	17	950	25	720
2	2600	10	1300	18	900	26	700
3	2200	11	1250	19	875	27	680
4	1800	12	1200	20	850	28	660
5	1700	13	1150	21	800	29	640
6	1600	14	1100	22	780	30	620
7	1500	15	1050	23	760	31	600
8	1400	15	1000	24	740	32	590

As you can see, the value of first-round picks falls off quickly at the top of the round. And while all the teams involved in the trades we mentioned moved up less than 10 spots, the Eagles would be making the climb from 20th to the top five.

Per Johnson's chart, the average value of picks two through five is 1,825 points. The value of the Eagles' 20th pick, however, is only 850 points. Their second-round pick would add another 380 points to the deal.

In other words, there's no way the deal gets done without at least Philly's 2015 first-rounder being on the table as well.

Given how far up the Eagles would be moving, our best recent historical barometer for a Mariota trade might lie back in 2011. That year, the Atlanta Falcons vaulted from 27th to sixth, securing the services of wide receiver Julio Jones in the process.

They also paid a hefty price, sending five picks (including two firsts and a second) to the Cleveland Browns.

It may not take that much to swing the deal that brings them Mariota. Or the price may come in too close to the RG3 haul and too rich for the Eagles' blood.

Or Mariota could drop in the draft. Tradeology is an inexact science in addition to a made-up word.

With that said though, given the information we have here, it's not a stretch to say that a Mariota deal would cost the Eagles this year's first, next year's first and another second-day pick.

And none of this is to say whether trading up in the 2015 draft to land Mariota is a good idea. That's an argument for another day.

However, if recent history (or Johnson's chart) is any indication, that's an argument Kelly and the Eagles had better consider carefully before taking action.

Because these are sorts of high-stakes trades that define careers when they work—and end them when they don't.

Gary Davenport is an NFL Analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPManor.